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At least 631 records · Page 35Linked to original sources
PubMed2005

Evidence of a shift in the cyclicity of Antarctic seabird dynamics linked to climate.

Ecosystems and populations are known to be influenced not only by long-term climatic trends, but also by other short-term climatic modes, such as interannual and decadal-scale variabilities. Because interactions between climatic forcing, biotic and abiotic components of ecosystems are subtle and complex, analysis of long-term series of both biological and physical factors is essential to understanding these interactions. Here, we apply a wavelet analysis simultaneously to long-term datasets on the environment and on the populations and breeding success of three Antarctic seabirds (southern fulmar, snow petrel, emperor penguin) breeding in Terre Adélie, to study the effects of climate fluctuations on Antarctic marine ecosystems. We show that over the past 40 years, populations and demographic parameters of the three species fluctuate with a periodicity of 3-5 years that was also detected in sea-ice extent and the Southern Oscillation Index. Although the major periodicity of these interannual fluctuations is not common to different species and environmental variables, their cyclic characteristics reveal a significant change since 1980. Moreover, sliding-correlation analysis highlighted the relationships between environmental variables and the demography of the three species, with important change of correlation occurring between the end of the 1970s and the beginning of the 1980s. These results suggest that a regime shift has probably occurred during this period, significantly affecting the Antarctic ecosystem, but with contrasted effects on the three species.

Animals↗
PubMed2005

Climate change and seal survival: evidence for environmentally mediated changes in elephant seal, Mirounga leonina, pup survival.

Maternal and physical factors play a significant role in animal life-history variability, which means that large scale climate change has the potential to affect the size and dynamics of animal populations indirectly through maternal investment and directly through conditions that animals are exposed to. However, little is known about the effects of large-scale oceanographic events such as the El-Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) that influence productivity in the Southern Ocean and the abundance, quality and distribution of prey. The possible mechanisms by which physical factors and primary productivity could influence life-history traits, such as survival of apex predators, includes direct influences such as food availability and foraging success and indirect influences such as stored maternal investment and resource transfer during lactation. Here, we quantify the relative contribution of maternal investment and climate conditions at remote foraging sites to survival in the first year of life for southern elephant seals. We present evidence linking climate (ENSO) and variations in a key demographic parameter--first-year survival--and demonstrate that survival was highest during ENSO events and that the ability of mothers to store and acquire resources, which is typically related to ocean productivity, is the most important determinant of survival in the first year. This functional link provides valuable insights that can be used to model the responses of the seal populations to climate change scenarios.

Animals↗
PubMed2005

An ecological 'footprint' of climate change.

Recently, there has been increasing evidence of species' range shifts due to changes in climate. Whereas most of these shifts relate ground truth biogeographic data to a general warming trend in regional or global climate data, we here present a reanalysis of both biogeographic and bioclimatic data of equal spatio-temporal resolution, covering a time span of more than 50 years. Our results reveal a coherent and synchronous shift in both species' distribution and climate. They show not only a shift in the northern margin of a species, which is in concert with gradually increasing winter temperatures in the area, they also confirm the simulated species' distribution changes expected from a bioclimatic model under the recent, relatively moderate climate change.

Climate↗
PubMed2006

Species richness changes lag behind climate change.

Species-energy theory indicates that recent climate warming should have driven increases in species richness in cool and species-poor parts of the Northern Hemisphere. We confirm that the average species richness of British butterflies has increased since 1970-82, but much more slowly than predicted from changes of climate: on average, only one-third of the predicted increase has taken place. The resultant species assemblages are increasingly dominated by generalist species that were able to respond quickly. The time lag is confirmed by the successful introduction of many species to climatically suitable areas beyond their ranges. Our results imply that it may be decades or centuries before the species richness and composition of biological communities adjusts to the current climate.

Animal Migration↗
PubMed2005

Aspects of climate change prediction relevant to crop productivity.

Projected changes in surface climate are reviewed at a range of temporal scales, with an emphasis on tropical northern Africa--a region considered to be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Noting the key aspects of 'weather' affecting crop yield, we then consider relevant and projected change using output from a range of state of the art global climate models (GCMs), and for different future emission scenarios. The outputs from the models reveal significant inter-model variation in the change expected by the end of the twenty-first century for even the lowest IPCC emission scenario. We provide a set of recommendations on future model diagnostics, configurations and ease of use to close further the gap between GCMs and smaller-scale crop models. This has the potential to empower countries to make their own assessments of vulnerability to climate change induced periods of food scarcity.

Africa, Northern↗
PubMed2005

Climate change, global food supply and risk of hunger.

This paper reports the results of a series of research projects which have aimed to evaluate the implications of climate change for food production and risk of hunger. There are three sets of results: (a) for IS92a (previously described as a 'business-as-usual' climate scenario); (b) for stabilization scenarios at 550 and 750 ppm and (c) for Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). The main conclusions are: (i) the region of greatest risk is Africa; (ii) stabilization at 750 ppm avoids some but not most of the risk, while stabilization at 550 ppm avoids most of the risk and (iii) the impact of climate change on risk of hunger is influenced greatly by pathways of development. For example, a SRES B2 development pathway is characterized by much lower levels of risk than A2; and this is largely explained by differing levels of income and technology not by differing amounts of climate forcing.

Africa↗
PubMed2005

Climate science and famine early warning.

Food security assessment in sub-Saharan Africa requires simultaneous consideration of multiple socio-economic and environmental variables. Early identification of populations at risk enables timely and appropriate action. Since large and widely dispersed populations depend on rainfed agriculture and pastoralism, climate monitoring and forecasting are important inputs to food security analysis. Satellite rainfall estimates (RFE) fill in gaps in station observations, and serve as input to drought index maps and crop water balance models. Gridded rainfall time-series give historical context, and provide a basis for quantitative interpretation of seasonal precipitation forecasts. RFE are also used to characterize flood hazards, in both simple indices and stream flow models. In the future, many African countries are likely to see negative impacts on subsistence agriculture due to the effects of global warming. Increased climate variability is forecast, with more frequent extreme events. Ethiopia requires special attention. Already facing a food security emergency, troubling persistent dryness has been observed in some areas, associated with a positive trend in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures. Increased African capacity for rainfall observation, forecasting, data management and modelling applications is urgently needed. Managing climate change and increased climate variability require these fundamental technical capacities if creative coping strategies are to be devised.

Africa South of the Sahara↗
PubMed2006

Changing habitat associations of a thermally constrained species, the silver-spotted skipper butterfly, in response to climate warming.

1. The impact of climate change on the distribution, abundance, phenology and ecophysiology of species is already well documented, whereas the influence of climate change on habitat choice and utilization has received little attention. Here we report the changing habitat associations of a thermally constrained grassland butterfly, Hesperia comma, over 20 years. 2. Between 1982 and 2001-2, the optimum percentage of bare ground within habitat used for egg-laying shifted from 41% to 21%. 3. Egg-laying rates are temperature-dependent and females actively adjust microhabitat usage in response to temperature variations; relatively warmer host plants are chosen or oviposition at low ambient temperatures, and cooler host plants at high ambient temperatures. 4. Climate warming has increased the availability of thermally suitable habitat for H. comma at the cool, northern edge of the species' distribution, therefore increasing: (a) egg-laying rate and potentially the realized rate of population increase; (b) effective area of habitat patches as more microhabitats within a given vegetation fragment are now suitable for egg-laying; (c) buffering of populations against environmental variation as eggs are laid within a wider range of microhabitats; and (d) the number of habitat patches in the landscape that are currently available for colonization (including the use of more northerly facing aspects; Thomas et al., Nature, 2001, 411, 577-581). 5. Conservationists often assume the habitat requirements of a species to be constant, and manage habitats to maintain these conditions. For many species, these requirements are likely to change in response to climate warming, and care must be taken not to manage habitats based on outdated prescriptions.

Adaptation, Physiological↗
PubMed2006

Competing species in a changing climate: effects of recruitment disturbances on two interacting barnacle species.

1. The climate is changing and data-based simulation models can be a valuable tool for predicting population response to such changes and investigate the mechanisms of population change. In this study, a data-based two-species matrix model was constructed to explore the possible effects of elevated sea surface temperature (i.e. climate change) on the interaction between open populations of the south Atlantic barnacle species Chthamalus montagui and the boreal species Semibalanus balanoides in the north-east Atlantic. 2. First, the model was used to perform an elasticity analysis to determine the relative importance of recruitment and survival in the interaction. Further, three scenarios of changes in recruitment, related to climate change, were investigated with model simulations: (i) increased frequencies of low recruitment for S. balanoides; (ii) increased frequencies of high recruitment for C. montagui; (iii) a combination of (i) and (ii). 3. Model simulations showed that in present environmental conditions, S. balanoides occupied most of the space and dominated the interaction through high recruitment and survival. These results matched independent field observations, which validated the model for further analyses. 4. The elasticity analyses showed that although free space was available there was competition for space during recruitment intervals. It was also shown that both populations were sensitive to changes in recruitment. 5. Introducing the three scenarios of recruitment disturbances led to large changes in species abundance and free space. The most significant changes were found when scenario (i) and (ii) were combined, producing a shift in species dynamics towards C. montagui dominance. This demonstrates that recruitment can be an important mechanism in the interaction between populations and that the population response to changes in recruitment depends on the added response of interacting species. 6. In a more general context, this model shows that increased sea surface temperature could rapidly lead to increased competition from southern species at higher latitudes. This might accelerate the effects of climate change on the species distribution at these latitudes and eventually lead to changes in community dynamics on temperate and subarctic shores.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

Climate impacts at multiple scales: evidence for differential population responses in juvenile Chinook salmon.

1. We explored differential population responses to climate in 18 populations of threatened spring-summer Chinook salmon Onchorynchus tshawytscha in the Salmon River basin, Idaho. 2. Using data from a long-term mark-release-recapture study of juvenile survival, we found that fall stream flow is the best predictor of average survival across all populations. 3. To determine whether all populations responded similarly to climate, we used a cluster analysis to group populations that had similar annual fluctuations in survival. The populations grouped into four clusters, and different environmental factors were important for different clusters. 4. Survival in two of the clusters was negatively correlated with summer temperature, and survival in the other two clusters was positively correlated with minimum fall stream flow, which in turn depends on snow pack from the previous winter. 5. Using classification and regression tree analysis, we identified stream width and stream temperature as key habitat factors that shape the responses of individual populations to climate. 6. Climate change will likely have different impacts on different populations within this metapopulation, and recognizing this diversity is important for accurately assessing risks.

Animals↗
PubMed1993

Climate, satellite imagery and the seasonal abundance of the tick Rhipicephalus appendiculatus in southern Africa: a new perspective.

Recent predictive models for the distribution of the African tick Rhipicephalus appendiculatus Neumann, based on the computer packages CLIMEX and BIOCLIM and data derived from meteorological satellites, and for the seasonal dynamics of the same tick using the computer simulation models ECFXPERT and T3HOST, all have their limitations. Statistical analysis of the relationships between the seasonal abundance of all three life stages of this tick and climatic and satellite-derived data from five sites in southern Africa, taken from the literature, supports a new perspective that it is the timing of the questing activity of the desiccation-vulnerable larvae that determines the pattern of the tick's seasonal dynamics. The timing of the activity of nymphs and adults is determined by temperature-dependent development rates plus the delaying phenomenon of photoperiod-sensitive diapause, the timing and duration of which have evolved to achieve maximum generation survival by ensuring the occurrence of eggs and larvae during periods of optimal climatic conditions. The most important environmental factor appears to be night-time minimum temperature, determining condensation and saturation deficit and thus the tick's ability to replenish moisture lost during the daytime and so to survive while questing for hosts. It is the larvae whose numbers are correlated most closely with these factors, consistent with earlier experimental results showing larvae to be most susceptible to desiccating conditions. There is a statistical linkage between larval tick numbers and satellite imagery, arising from the correlation between larval numbers and minimum temperature and saturation deficit conditions, and in turn the relationship between these climatic conditions and the subsequent vegetational changes monitored by the satellites. Moisture availability to larvae is likely to be the critical factor throughout the geographical range of R. appendiculatus, but the precise combination of climatic conditions that optimize moisture availability and questing tick survival can be expected to vary geographically. The relationships between ticks, temperatures and satellite data in parts of equatorial Africa have yet to be established. These correlative patterns highlight both the critical life stage and environmental factors when trying to understand temporal, and ultimately spatial, variations in tick abundance.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

Evolution of rattlesnakes (Viperidae; Crotalus) in the warm deserts of western North America shaped by Neogene vicariance and Quaternary climate change.

During Pleistocene, the Laurentide ice sheet rearranged and diversified biotic distributions in eastern North America, yet had minimal physical impact in western North America where lineage diversification is instead hypothesized to result from climatic changes. If Pleistocene climatic fluctuations impacted desert species, the latter would reflect patterns of restricted gene flow concomitant with indications of demographic bottlenecks. Accordingly, molecular evidence for refugia should be present within these distributions and for subsequent range expansions as conditions improved. We sought answers to these questions by evaluating mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences from four species of rattlesnakes [Crotalus mitchellii (speckled rattlesnake), Crotalus cerastes (sidewinder), Crotalus tigris (tiger rattlesnake), Crotalus ruber (red diamond rattlesnake)] with distributions restricted to desert regions of southwestern North America. We inferred relationships using parsimony and maximum likelihood, tested intraspecific clades for population expansions, applied an isolation-with-migration model to determine bi-directional migration rates (m) among regions, and inferred divergence times for species and clades by applying a semiparametric penalized likelihood approach to our molecular data. Evidence for significant range expansion was present in two of eight regions in two species (Crotalus mitchellii pyrrhus, C. tigris region north). Two species (C. cerastes, C. mitchellii) showed a distribution concomitant with northward displacement of Baja California from mainland México, followed by vicariant separation into subclades. Effects of Pleistocene climate fluctuations were found in the distributions of all four species. Three regional diversification patterns were identified: (i) shallow genetic diversity that resulted from Pleistocene climatic events (C. tigris, C. ruber); (ii) deep Pleistocene divisions indicating allopatric segregation of subclades within refugia (C. mitchellii, C. cerastes); and (iii) lineage diversifications that extended to Pliocene or Late Miocene (C. mitchellii, C. cerastes). Clade-diversifying and clade-constraining effects impacted the four species of rattlesnakes unequally. We found relatively high levels of molecular diversification in the two most broadly distributed species (C. mitchellii, C. cerastes), and lower levels of genetic diversification in the two species (C. tigris, C. ruber) whose ranges are relatively more restricted. Furthermore, in several cases, the distributions of subspecies were not congruent with our molecular information. We suggest regional conservation perspectives for southwestern deserts cannot rely upon subspecies as biodiversity surrogates, but must instead employ a molecular and deep historical perspective as a primary mechanism to frame biodiversity reserves within this region.

Adenosine Triphosphatases↗
PubMed2006

Effects of climate and different management strategies on Aedes aegypti breeding sites: a longitudinal survey in Brasília (DF, Brazil).

OBJECTIVE: To determine the influence of climate and of environmental vector control with or without insecticide on Aedes aegypti larval indices and pupae density. METHODS: An 18-month longitudinal survey of infestation of Ae. aegypti immature stages was conducted for the 1015 residences (premises) of Vila Planalto, an area of Brasilia where the Breteau Index was about 40 before the study. This area was divided into five zones: a control zone with environmental management alone and four zones with insecticide treatment (methoprene, Bti, temephos). We tested for significant differences between infestation levels in the control and insecticide-treated areas, for relationships between climatic variables and larval indices, and to determine risk factors of infestation for certain types of premises and containers. RESULTS: Environmental vector control strategies dramatically decreased infestation in the five areas. No significant differences could be detected between control strategies with insecticide and without. Some premises and container types were particularly suitable for breeding. The influence of climate on the emergence of Ae. aegypti adults for the area is described. CONCLUSION: In a moderately infested area such as Brasilia, insecticides do not improve environmental vector control. Rather, infestations could be further reduced by focusing on residences and containers particularly at risk. The nature of the link between climate and larval population should be investigated in larger-scale studies before being used in forecasting models.

Aedes↗
PubMed2006

Effect of climatic change in children with atopic eczema.

BACKGROUND: Climate and sunlight (ultraviolet radiation) influence activity of atopic eczema. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effect of moving from a subarctic/temperate climate to a sunny subtropical climate on children's atopic eczema. METHODS: Children, 4-13 years, with severe atopic eczema were randomized to stay 4 weeks in Gran Canary (index patients = 30) and home in Norway (controls = 26), with a follow up of 3 months. SCORing of Atopic Dermatitis (SCORAD) was primary variable, and secondary were Children's Dermatology Life Quality Index (CDLQI), Staphylococcus aureus skin colonization and pharmacological skin treatment. RESULTS: SCORing of Atopic Dermatitis decreased from 37.2 (29.4-44.9) to 12.2 (9.0-15.4) [mean (95% confidence intervals)] after 4 weeks and 21.2 (17.2-25.1) 3 months thereafter in index patients (P < 0.0005), much less in controls.Children's Dermatology Life Quality Index in the index group improved from 8.7 to 2.2 and 4.5 after 4 weeks and 3 months (P < 0.0005), not in controls. Bacterial skin colonization with S. aureus decreased in the index group from 23/30 (77%) to 12/30 (40%; P = 0.001) and 12/30 (40%; P = 0.005) after 1 month and 3 months, and the use of local steroids decreased in index patients but not in controls. CONCLUSIONS: The change from a subartic/temperate to a subtropical climate for 4 weeks improved significantly skin symptoms (SCORAD) and quality of life, even for 3 months after return.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2006

Ecotypic variation in the context of global climate change: revisiting the rules.

Patterns of ecotypic variation constitute some of the few 'rules' known to modern biology. Here, we examine several well-known ecogeographical rules, especially those pertaining to body size in contemporary, historical and fossil taxa. We review the evidence showing that rules of geographical variation in response to variation in the local environment can also apply to morphological changes through time in response to climate change. These rules hold at various time scales, ranging from contemporary to geological time scales. Patterns of body size variation in response to climate change at the individual species level may also be detected at the community level. The patterns underlying ecotypic variation are complex and highly context-dependent, reducing the 'predictive-power' of ecogeographical rules. This is especially true when considering the increasing impact of human activities on the environment. Nonetheless, ecogeographical rules may help interpret the likely influences of anthropogenic climate change on ecosystems. Global climate change has already influenced the body size of several contemporary species, and will likely have an even greater impact on animal communities in the future. For this reason, we highlight and emphasise the importance of museum specimens and the continued need for documenting the earth's biological diversity.

Adaptation, Physiological↗
PubMed2006

Hydrogen exchange during cellulose synthesis distinguishes climatic and biochemical isotope fractionations in tree rings.

The abundance of the hydrogen isotope deuterium (D) in tree rings is an attractive record of climate; however, use of this record has proved difficult so far, presumably because climatic and physiological influences on D abundance are difficult to distinguish. Using D labelling, we created a D gradient in trees. Leaf soluble sugars of relatively low D abundance entered cellulose synthesis in stems containing strongly D-labelled water. We used nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy to quantify D in the C-H groups of leaf glucose and of tree-ring cellulose. Ratios of D abundances of individual C-H groups of leaf glucose depended only weakly on leaf D labelling, indicating that the D abundance pattern was determined by physiological influences. The D abundance pattern of tree-ring cellulose revealed C-H groups that exchanged strongly (C(2)-H) or weakly (C(6)-H2) with water during cellulose synthesis. We propose that strongly exchanging C-H groups of tree-ring cellulose adopt a climate signal stemming from the D abundance of source water. C-H groups that exchange weakly retain their D abundance established in leaf glucose, which reflects physiological influences. Combining both types of groups may allow simultaneous reconstruction of climate and physiology from tree rings.

Cellulose↗
PubMed2006

Influence of climatic conditions on the isolation of members of the Cryptococcus neoformans species complex from trees in Colombia from 1992-2004.

The aim of this retrospective study was to analyze the relationship between occurrence of the serotypes of the Cryptococcus neoformans species complex in tree samples and the climatic conditions registered during samplings in four cities of Colombia, between 1992 and 2004, by means of a logistic regression model and lagged Pearson correlations. During 97 collection dates, 8220 samples from different tree species were taken, of which 2.63% were positive: 56.5% yielded serotype B, 24.7% serotype C and 18.8% serotype A isolates. The prevalence of the serotypes varied among the cities. The results suggest that environmental climatic conditions, mainly humidity, temperature, evaporation and solar radiation, can affect the occurrence of the different serotypes in trees in a differential manner. These different climatic tolerances were reflected in the geographic distribution of the serotypes in Colombia. The climatic conditions for 15 days before the sampling date were correlated with positive or negative isolation of the different serotypes.

Chrysobalanaceae↗
PubMed2001

Trends, rhythms, and aberrations in global climate 65 Ma to present.

Since 65 million years ago (Ma), Earth's climate has undergone a significant and complex evolution, the finer details of which are now coming to light through investigations of deep-sea sediment cores. This evolution includes gradual trends of warming and cooling driven by tectonic processes on time scales of 10(5) to 10(7) years, rhythmic or periodic cycles driven by orbital processes with 10(4)- to 10(6)-year cyclicity, and rare rapid aberrant shifts and extreme climate transients with durations of 10(3) to 10(5) years. Here, recent progress in defining the evolution of global climate over the Cenozoic Era is reviewed. We focus primarily on the periodic and anomalous components of variability over the early portion of this era, as constrained by the latest generation of deep-sea isotope records. We also consider how this improved perspective has led to the recognition of previously unforeseen mechanisms for altering climate.

Animals↗