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The thrust of health care "solutions" in the press and in Congress focus on the infirm. In fact, it is the only segment where all of the various economic models fit well. Considerable marketing planning and implementation techniques must be brought to bear on solutions for the healthy, the worried, and the early sick segments in the near future.
The present, subjective value of a delayed reward is a decreasing function of the duration of the delay. This phenomenon is termed temporal discounting. To determine whether the amount of the reward influences the rate of temporal discounting, we had subjects choose between immediate and delayed hypothetical rewards of different amounts ($100, $2,000, $25,000, and $100,000 delayed rewards). As predicted by psychological models of the choice process, hyperbolic functions described the decrease in the subjective value of the delayed reward as the time until its receipt was increased (R2s from .86 to .99). Moreover, hyperbolic functions consistently provided more accurate descriptions of the data than did exponential functions predicted by an economic model of discounted utility. Rate of discounting decreased in a negatively accelerated fashion as the amount of the delayed reward increased, leveling off by approximately $25,000. These findings are interpreted in the context of different psychological models of choice, and implications for procedures to enhance self-control are discussed.
I reviewed the literature on dissociation and dissociative disorders from Pierre Janet to DSM-IV, and examined the current trends in research. Janet's theory on hysteria is multifaceted, and is based on three psychological models. Based on a hierarchical model, Janet related hysteric symptoms to the activities within the lower strata of mental hierarchy (automatisms psychologiques), which were demonstrably shown in somnambulism. A second model was based on the concept of a psychological system, which was hypothetically composed of ideas, images, feelings, sensations, and movements. According to this model, dissociation of psychological functions was fundamental to the mechanism of hysteria: loss of integration was thought to engender fixed ideas (ideas fixes) and to lead to the development of a system totally isolated from the whole personality system. Janet also attempted to explain various mental disorders using an economic model. He referred to a loss of equilibration between psychological force and psychological tension. Thus, an unexpected emotional experience was conceived to cause a consumption of reserved psychological force, which was in turn followed by exhaustion associated with hysteric symptoms. Whereas most current researchers regard Janet as the first to study psychological trauma as a principal cause of dissociation, I feel it is important to note that he also emphasized the role of stigmata, i.e., permanent traits of hysteric patients, which were represented as a suggestibility and a tendency toward a narrowing of the consciousness field. Discussion about dissociation and its relation to trauma all but disappeared after Janet. However, during the Second World War and post-war period, some psychiatrists began to pay attention to two emerging phenomena: a high incidence of dissociative symptoms such as fugue and amnesia among combatants, and traumatic neurosis frequently observed among ex-inmates of concentration camps. In the 1970s, interest in dissociation and trauma was revived in different areas: the feminism movement was linked with concerns about child sexual abuse, public curiosity about multiple personalities was heightened by novels and movies, and recognition of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) among Vietnam War veterans. In 1980, dissociative disorders were finally adopted as a diagnostic category in the official nomenclature of DSM-III. Although current research on dissociation is being carried out in various fields, two basic assumptions, reflected in the definition of DSM-IV, can be made. One is the "trauma-genic hypothesis," and the other is the great importance attached to multiple personality disorder (MPD). According to the predominantly held view, dissociation represents a reaction to early traumatic experience, especially sexual and physical abuse in childhood. In contrast, some authors argue that the causality of childhood traumatic experience has not been empirically confirmed, and other factors such as the influence of the environment and the predisposition of patients should be taken into consideration. MPD, which was originally described as an unusual phenomenon in classical literature, is currently thought to be a common type of dissociation. However, the reported rapid increase in the number of MPD patients in North America may be partially due to over-diagnosis and inclusion of iatrogenic cases. Significance is also given to MPD in respect to classification of dissociative phenomena. According to the widely held scheme of a "dissociative continuum," which ranges from normal experiences such as daydreams to pathological states, MPD is placed at the extreme end of the continuum. Furthermore, most researchers tend to classify MPD as the severest dissociative disorder due to chronic trauma. On this point, there seems to be confusion about "extremity" and "severity" of MPD. I conclude that the trauma-genic hypothesis of dissociation and the overemphasis placed on MPD should be reexamin
AIMS: To characterize and compare health-related utility in a large cohort of patients treated in hospital with diabetes and with single and multiple comorbidities. METHODS: The study was conducted in Cardiff and the Vale of Glamorgan, UK. Health-related utility was measured using the EQ5D(index), a standardized instrument for measuring health outcome. Patients from the Health Outcomes Data Repository (HODaR) were surveyed by postal questionnaire 6 weeks post discharge for in-patients and during clinics for patients attending as out-patients between January 2002 and July 2005. Patients with diabetes were identified by a previous history of in-patient admission with diabetes or as an out-patient with diabetes recorded as a coexisting diagnosis. RESULTS: We identified 4502 patients with diabetes. Mean ages were 65.4 and 64.2 years for males and females, respectively. Of these, 2003 (45%) had no recorded vascular complication. Overall, the EQ5D(index) was 0.584 (sd 0.325) for males and 0.533 (sd 0.351) for females. For those without any vascular complications the mean EQ5D(index) was 0.735 (sd 0.288). In a general linear model, the presence of single and multiple complications had a detrimental impact on the EQ5D(index). CONCLUSION: The results of this study provide an indication of the true impact of diabetes in terms of health-related utility. There was a decrease in the mean EQ5D(index) for those with vascular complications. Economic models of diabetes that have used additive or multiplicative methods to assess utility in individuals with several complications may be unreliable, and direct measurements, such as this, are recommended.
Similarities in the trends of the number of offences and the level of alcohol consumption are often used as evidence as a link between alcohol and many forms of criminal activity. However, such crude correlations may be misleading as they neither take account of other factors that might be important, not assist the understanding of the causal links between alcohol and crime. In this paper, the role that economic models may play in furthering the understanding of the potential links between alcohol and crime are explored. A complete model is presented which allows for complex interactions between alcohol, crime and the criminal justice system. Results from testing this model with time series data (1960-88) for England and Wales for different types of crime are discussed in detail. Data defined by standard regions and for the years 1980 to 1988 were also compiled and a summary of the results discussed. The argument that alcohol consumption may be one of the determinants of a wide range of crimes receives some support and is also found that alcohol consumption may affect the probability of detection for some types of crime.
Hip fractures are a burden to both the individual and the community. Only 50% of patients regain the mobility and independence they enjoyed 12 months before the hip fracture occurred. Direct costs are high: about US$7,000 for the immediate hospital care and $21,000 in total costs for the first year. The numbers of hip fractures worldwide are projected to increase from 1.7 million in 1990 to 6.3 million in 2050 because of the aging of the population; therefore, the total cost of these fractures will also increase. Based on today's currency values and a cost of $21,000 per patient, the total cost of hip fractures in the year 2050 will be $131.5 billion. The costs and morbidity associated with other fractures, such as vertebral fractures, are less well defined. Because hip fractures are associated with the highest and most well-defined costs, morbidity, and mortality of all fragility fractures, models with high sensitivity can now be devised for evaluating the costs and benefits of interventions. These models are constructed using data on incidence, morbidity, mortality, and costs of fractures, along with the efficacy of an intervention, to estimate the impact of that intervention against osteoporosis. According to one model, the cost per hip fracture avoided is $48,600 if a 62-year-old woman with osteoporosis receives treatment with a drug that is administered for 5 years at $830/year and produces a 50% reduction in fracture rate. The cost per life-year saved is $30,600, and the cost per quality-adjusted life-year is $14,900. By comparison, using this model, treatment of a 62-year-old woman with a diastolic pressure of 95 mm Hg using a drug costing $420/year that reduces risk of stroke by 38% results in costs of $144,200 per stroke avoided, $17,800 per life-year saved, and $14,300 per quality-adjusted life-year. Health economic models allow for changes in assumptions, such as extent of compliance, effectiveness of therapy, and risk of side effects. Cost-effectiveness varies according to treatment and is highly sensitive to the estimated efficacy of treatment, patient compliance, age of the patient at the start of treatment, and fracture risk assigned to the patient. Greater cost-effectiveness occurs when treatments are more efficacious and when they are directed at patients with the highest risk of fracture.
PURPOSE: To estimate health status utility values in patients with age-related macular degeneration (ARMD) associated with visual impairments, by using preference-based measures of health. METHOD: This was a cross-sectional study involving patients with unilateral or bilateral ARMD who attended a large teaching hospital. Patients underwent visual tests (near and distant visual acuity [VA] and contrast sensitivity [CS]) and completed health status questionnaires including the Index of Visual Function (VF)-14 and three preference-based measures (the Health Utilities Index Mark III [HUI-3], the EuroQoL Health Questionnaire [EQ-5D], and the Short Form 6D Health Status Questionnaire [SF-6D]) and the time tradeoff (TTO). The mean health status is presented for five groups, defined according to the VA in the better-seeing eye and for four CS groups. RESULTS: Two hundred nine patients were recruited with substantial loss of visual function as obtained by visual tests (mean decimal VA in the better-seeing eye: 0.2) and self-report (mean VF-14 score: 41.5). The mean (+/-SD) utilities were 0.34 +/- 0.28 for HUI-3, 0.66 +/- 0.14 for SF-6D, 0.72 +/- 0.22 for EQ-5D, and 0.64 +/- 0.31 for TTO. The HUI-3 had the highest correlation with VA and CS (0.40 and -0.34), followed by TTO (0.25 and -0.21). Across the VA and CS groups, only HUI3 and TTO had a significant linear trend (P < 0.05). In a regression model with CS and VA as explanatory variables, only the coefficient on CS was statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: ARMD is associated with a substantial impact on patients' health status, but this was not reflected in two of the generic preference-based measures used. The HUI-3 seems to be the instrument of choice for use in economic evaluations in which community data are needed. It may be more appropriate to base economic models on CS or some combination of CS and VA rather than on VA alone.
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The objectives of this presentation are to review results of our previous and on-going research with respect to the risk factors and consequences of poor reproductive performance in dairy cows, and to develop an economic framework to optimize decisions related to dairy cow reproductive performance. To make profitable breeding and replacement decisions, the farmer must account for factors including age, production level, lactation stage, pregnancy status, and disease history of the cows in the herd. Establishing the interrelationships among disease, milk yield, reproduction, and herd management is necessary for developing a decision model for disease treatment, insemination, and replacement. The data for the studies reviewed in this presentation incorporate health, production, and management components from Holsteins in the Northeast USA and Ayrshires from Finland. Data were analyzed using the Cornell Theory Center Supercomputer. The effect of risk factors on reproductive disorders was modeled with logistic regression, and on conception, insemination, and culling with survival analysis. The effect of reproductive disorders on milk yield was analyzed with mixed models. Economic optimization of reproductive performance was done with dynamic programming (DP). High milk yield, high parity, and calving in winter were risk factors for several reproductive disorders. These disorders, in turn, delayed insemination and conception in dairy cows, and some of them increased the risk of culling. Dystocia, retained placenta, and early metritis led to a short-term drop in milk production. High milk yield was not a major factor in delaying conception, except in first parity cows. However, higher yielders were more likely to be inseminated, and less likely to be culled. Non-pregnant cows had a higher risk of being culled. Reproductive performance of dairy cows influenced a herd's profitability, and good heat detection and conception rates provided opportunities for management control. It was not always economically advantageous to get cows pregnant as soon as possible, and there was no one optimal value for the calving interval length for all cows in a herd.
OBJECTIVE: Upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage (UGIH) is common, and thus imposes a substantial burden on health care resources. We describe resource utilization and cost for management of acute nonvariceal UGIH, and studied their variation among population subgroups. METHODS: Resource utilization and direct medical case costs were extracted for consecutive admissions for nonvariceal UGIH at a large community hospital in southern Ontario through chart review and adaptation of an administrative case cost database. Univariate and multiple regression models were then developed to identify independent demographic predictors of case cost and length of stay. RESULTS: Among 116 eligible admissions the average length of stay and case cost were 4.26 days and Can$2690, respectively (Can$1 = US$0.70). Both cost and length of stay demonstrated significant univariate relationships with age, comorbid illness, prior peptic ulcer disease (PUD), and prior UGIH. Age and prior PUD persisted as independent predictors in multiple regression models. An inverse transformation of total case cost allowed these variables to explain 26% of the total variance. CONCLUSIONS: Resource utilization for management of acute nonvariceal UGIH at a Canadian community hospital varies substantially among population subgroups, but correlates independently with age and prior ulcer history. Careful attention must be paid to practice environments and demographic profiles before economic models of strategies to prevent or treat UGIH are applied to specific subpopulations.
The documented history of malaria in parts of Asia goes back more than 2,000 years, during which the disease has been a major player on the socioeconomic stage in many nation states as they waxed and waned in power and prosperity. On a much shorter time scale, the last half century has seen in microcosm a history of large fluctuations in endemicity and impact of malaria across the spectrum of rice fields and rain forests, mountains and plains that reflect the vast ecological diversity inhabited by this majority aggregation of mankind. That period has seen some of the most dramatic changes in social and economic structure, in population size, density and mobility, and in political structure in history: all have played a part in the changing face of malaria in this extensive region of the world. While the majority of global malaria cases currently reside in Africa, greater numbers inhabited Asia earlier this century before malaria programs savored significant success, and now Asia harbors a global threat in the form of the epicenter of multidrug resistant Plasmodium falciparum which is gradually encompassing the tropical world. The latter reflects directly the vicissitudes of economic change over recent decades, particularly the mobility of populations in search of commerce, trade and personal fortunes, or caught in the misfortunes of physical conflicts. The period from the 1950s to the 1990s has witnessed near "eradication" followed by resurgence of malaria in Sri Lanka, control and resurgence in India, the influence of war and postwar instability on drug resistance in Cambodia, increase in severe and cerebral malaria in Myanmar during prolonged political turmoil, the essential disappearance of the disease from all but forested border areas of Thailand where it remains for the moment intractable, the basic elimination of vivax malaria from many provinces of central China. Both positive and negative experiences have lessons to teach in the debate between eradication and control as alternative strategies. China has for years held high the goal of "basic elimination", eradication by another name, in sensible semi-defiance of WHO dictates. The Chinese experience makes it clear that, given community organization, exhaustive attention to case detection, management and focus elimination, plus the political will at all levels of society, it is possible both to eliminate malaria from large areas of an expansive nation and to implement surveillance necessary to maintain something approaching eradication status in those areas. But China has not succeeded in the international border regions of the tropical south where unfettered population movement confounds the program. Thailand, Malaysia and to an extent Vietnam have also reached essential elimination in their rice field plains by vigorous vertical programs but fall short at their forested borders. Economics is central to the history of the rise and fall of nations, and to the history of disease in the people who constitute nations. The current love affair with free market economics as the main driving force for advance of national wealth puts severe limitations on the essential involvement of communities in malaria management. The task of malaria control or elimination needs to be clearly related to the basic macroeconomic process that preoccupies governments, not cloistered away in the health sector Historically malaria has had a severe, measurable, negative impact on the productivity of nations. Economic models need rehoning with political aplomb and integrating with technical and demographic strategies. Recent decades in Chinese malaria history carry some lessons that may be relevant in this context.
Equity is of fundamental concern in the quest for international cooperation to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations by the reduction of emissions. By modeling the carbon cycle, we estimate the global CO(2) emissions that would be required to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of CO(2) at levels ranging from 450 to 1,000 ppm. These are compared, on both an absolute and a per-capita basis, to scenarios for emissions from the developed and developing worlds generated by socio-economic models under the assumption that actions to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions are not taken. Need and equity have provided strong arguments for developing countries to request that the developed world takes the lead in controlling its emissions, while permitting the developing countries in the meantime to use primarily fossil fuels for their development. Even with major and early control of CO(2) emissions by the developed world, limiting concentration to 450 ppm implies that the developing world also would need to control its emissions within decades, given that we expect developing world emissions would otherwise double over this time. Scenarios leading to CO(2) concentrations of 550 ppm exhibit a reduction of the developed world's per-capita emission by about 50% over the next 50 years. Even for the higher stabilization levels considered, the developing world would not be able to use fossil fuels for their development in the manner that the developed world has used them.
Bimatoprost (Lumigan) is a prostamide analogue used for the reduction of elevated intraocular pressure (IOP) in patients with open-angle glaucoma or ocular hypertension. In comparative clinical trials of up to 1 year in duration, administration of 0.03% bimatoprost ophthalmic solution once daily was more effective than 0.5% timolol twice daily and at least as effective as the prostaglandin analogues 0.005% latanoprost and 0.004% travoprost once daily in terms of reducing IOP and/or achieving target IOP levels. Bimatoprost was also more effective than twice-daily administration of 0.5%/2% timolol/dorzolamide in patients refractory to topical timolol therapy. Although generally well tolerated, bimatoprost is associated with a higher incidence of conjunctival hyperaemia than latanoprost, timolol or the combination of timolol and dorzolamide. Three fully published modelled cost-effectiveness analyses of bimatoprost evaluating cost per treatment success in patients with glaucoma or ocular hypertension have been conducted in the US. The analyses incorporated results of randomised, multicentre clinical trials and used a 1-year time horizon. In the treatment algorithm used in the models, patients not achieving target IOP levels with bimatoprost or comparator required additional medical visits and adjunctive therapy. Bimatoprost was associated with lower costs per treatment success than latanoprost, timolol or timolol/dorzolamide across a range of clinically relevant target IOPs. Results were sensitive to changes in treatment success rates and/or drug acquisition costs. Along with the inherent limitations of economic models, other possible criticisms of the analyses are the use of selected IOP data, and the lack of inclusion of costs associated with conjunctival hyperaemia or other adverse effects of therapy. Various other cost-effectiveness analyses of bimatoprost are available, primarily as abstracts and/or posters. In general, most of these studies have also been favourable for bimatoprost, despite having been conducted in different countries and/or from different perspectives. In conclusion, in patients with open-angle glaucoma or ocular hypertension, bimatoprost is an effective and generally well tolerated therapeutic option, albeit with a relatively high incidence of conjunctival hyperaemia. Although results of modelled cost-effectiveness analyses should be interpreted with due consideration of the limitations of the studies, available pharmacoeconomic data generally support the use of bimatoprost as a cost-effective treatment in this patient population.
While expenditures for hypertension are on the increase in developed countries, and potentially also in the developing world, resource constraints, even in the most affluent countries, need to consider hypertension control in the context of other demands of society. This position paper sums up the key aspects of the debate: problems of estimating the economic burden of hypertension and hypertension-related disease; the use of economic models; and opportunities for containing the costs. Direct healthcare costs of hypertension are amenable to calculations; but more information is needed on the population attributable risk of hypertension in various countries, indispensable to estimate the part of hypertension in the burden of stroke and heart disease. The population and the high-risk approach to hypertension control also have economic consequences; these may vary in different societies and need to be assessed to ensure appropriate allocation of resources. Cost containment can be achieved i.a. by more selective diagnostic investigations, and by opting for cheaper drugs, though the choice of treatment is difficult owing to uncertainties in the quality-of-life estimates. The economics of hypertension is a complex field, calling for continued research and monitoring.
Repaglinide (Prandin), NovoNorm, GlucoNorm, an oral insulin secretagogue, was the first meglitinide analogue to become available for use in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. The drug lowers postprandial glucose excursions by targeting early-phase insulin release, an effect thought to be important in reducing long-term cardiovascular complications of diabetes. Repaglinide provided similar overall glycaemic control to that achieved with glibenclamide (glyburide), as assessed by glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA(1c)) and fasting blood glucose levels, and was generally well tolerated in well designed clinical trials. Its rapid onset and relatively short duration of action allow for flexible meal schedules. Two modelled US cost-effectiveness analyses projected lifetime costs and outcomes for a hypothetical cohort of patients with type 2 diabetes. Both analyses projected long-term complications using data on HbA(1c) level changes from short-term clinical trials. Repaglinide plus rosiglitazone was dominant over rosiglitazone in one analysis, and repaglinide plus metformin was dominant over nateglinide plus metformin in the other. A similar Canadian analysis showed a favourable incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (<dollars US 1000 per QALY gained; 2001 values) for patients who switched from a sulphonylurea to repaglinide versus those who remained on sulphonylurea therapy. Long-term outcomes were projected using short-term clinical trial data on postprandial blood glucose level changes in the Canadian study. All three cost-effectiveness analyses are available as abstracts/posters. Two US cost analyses (both published in full) have also been conducted comparing the short-term costs (<or=3 years) of repaglinide, with or without metformin, versus other oral antidiabetic regimens. Results of these analyses are somewhat equivocal because of study design issues and/or a lack of statistically significant differences between treatment groups. In conclusion, repaglinide as monotherapy or in combination with other antidiabetic agents, such as metformin or rosiglitazone, achieves good metabolic control, similar to that achieved with comparable glibenclamide regimens. Severe hypoglycaemic episodes are less common with repaglinide than some sulphonylureas, including glibenclamide. Modelled cost-effectiveness analyses conducted in North America showed favourable results for repaglinide-containing regimens versus comparators, largely attributed to projected reductions in long-term cardiovascular complications using short-term data on changes in glycaemic parameters from clinical trials. Results of these cost-effectiveness analyses (all of which have been published as abstracts/posters) should be interpreted with caution since various assumptions regarding long-term costs and outcomes were necessarily incorporated into the economic models. While repaglinide is a useful addition to the available treatment options in type 2 diabetes, potential long-term advantages versus other agents, such as reducing cardiovascular complications, require confirmation. The prevalence of diabetes mellitus is projected to increase to over 3% of the world's population ( approximate, equals 220 million people) by the year 2010. Globally, 97% of patients with diabetes have type 2 disease, although in industrialised countries the proportion of type 2 disease is about 90%. In 2010, an estimated 14.85 million individuals in the US and 2.88 million in the UK will be diagnosed with type 2 diabetes. In addition, approximately one-third to one-half of individuals with diabetes are unaware that they have the disease, and are therefore undiagnosed. Diabetes is associated with significant morbidity, mortality and economic consequences. For the year 2002 in the US, direct medical costs associated with diabetes (type 1 and 2) were estimated at dollars US 91.8 billion (70% of total costs) and indirect costs at dollars US 39.8 billion (30%), for a total of dollars US 132 billion. Data from more than 7000 patients in eight European countries indicate tha the mean cost per patient with diabetes was dollars US 2928 annually (1999 values), and the proportion of total healthcare expenditure directed toward diabetes ranged from 1.6% to 6.6% depending on the country. Several analyses focusing specifically on type 2 disease showed, not surprisingly, that costs were higher among patients with diabetic complications than in those without complications. Repaglinide, a meglitinide analogue, is an oral insulin secretagogue that reduces postprandial glucose excursions by targeting postprandial insulin release. In clinical trials in patients with type 2 diabetes, repaglinide was usually administered at a dosage of 0.5-4 mg three times daily before meals as monotherapy or in combination with other agents. In placebo-controlled trials of up to 24 weeks' duration in patients with type 2 diabetes, repaglinide achieved statistically significant improvements in glycaemic control, as assessed by glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA(1c)), fasting blood glucose (FBG) and/or postprandial blood glucose (PPBG) levels compared with placebo. Preprandial administration of repaglinide achieved similar glycaemic control to glibenclamide (glyburide) 1.75-15 mg/day and better glycaemic control than glipizide 5-15 mg/day in 1-year, double-blind, randomised trials in patients with type 2 disease, the vast majority of whom had previously received oral antidiabetic therapy. Several randomised, open-label studies have evaluated repaglinide as part of combination therapy over 3-6 months in patients with type 2 diabetes who had inadequate glycaemic control with previous drug therapy. In general, results showed statistically significant improvements in glycaemic control when repaglinide was used in combination with metformin, various thiazolidinediones, or metformin plus bedtime insulin compared with monotherapy with either comparator drug in each study (or metformin plus bedtime insulin in one trial). Other studies in this patient population indicate that metformin plus repaglinide is associated with significantly better glycaemic control than metformin plus nateglinide 60-120 mg three times daily over 16 weeks, and similar glycaemic control to that achieved with metformin in combination with either glibenclamide or glimepiride for up to 1 year. Good glycaemic control has also been achieved with preprandial administration of repaglinide in flexible meal schedules. This was demonstrated in a placebo-controlled trial and in a large, prospective survey of patients receiving repaglinide in a clinical setting. The tolerability profile of repaglinide is characterised by adverse events of mild-to-moderate intensity similar to those associated with sulphonylureas. The most frequently reported adverse events with repaglinide include hypoglycaemia, upper respiratory infection, headache, other respiratory events, musculoskeletal events and gastrointestinal events. Severe episodes of hypoglycaemia are rare with repaglinide and occur approximately 2-2.5 times less frequently than with sulphonylureas. In addition, available data indicate that repaglinide may be less likely to increase bodyweight than various commonly used sulphonylurea agents. In general, repaglinide is also well tolerated when used as part of combination therapy. Repaglinide is metabolised by the cytochrome P450 (CYP) 3A4 enzyme system and therefore has the potential to interact with other CYP3A4 substrates when administered concurrently. A number of studies in healthy volunteers have shown no clinically significant pharmacokinetic drug interactions when repaglinide was administered concomitantly with digoxin, theophylline, warfarin, cimetidine, ketoconazole, rifampicin (rifampin), ethinylestradiol, simvastatin or nifedipine. However, a clinically significant increase in systemic exposure to repaglinide occurs when clarithromycin and repaglinide are administered concurrently, which may necessitate a reduction in repaglinide dosage. Moreover, a potentially hazardous interaction occurs when gemfibrozil (alone or with itraconazole) is used concomitantly with repaglinide. In view of the marked increase in systemic exposure to repaglinide, the combination of repaglinide and gemfibrozil should be avoided if possible. Pharmacoeconomic Analyses of RepaglinideTwo US cost analyses have been conducted with repaglinide in patients with type 2 diabetes (both published in full). One was a retrospective analysis of pharmacy and medical claims data from a large managed care organisation in which costs were adjusted for age, gender and comorbidities. Total adjusted (year 2000) cost per patient over a 9-month period was numerically lower for those treated with a combination of repaglinide plus metformin (dollars US 8924) than for patients who received metformin only (dollars US 9448), metformin plus glibenclamide (dollars US 9576) or repaglinide only (dollars US 11910), although there were no statistically significant differences between treatment groups. The other study, a literature-based decision-tree analysis, projected the proportion of patients achieving a target HbA(1c) level (<7%) and the associated direct medical costs over a 3-year period from the time of diagnosis. Among six different treatment regimens evaluated, costs ranged from dollars US 6106 with glipizide gastrointestinal therapeutic system (GITS) to dollars US 9298 with repaglinide monotherapy (2001/2002 values). Probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicated that first-line therapy with glipizide GITS or metformin would be associated with lower total medical costs than rosiglitazone or repaglinide monotherapy. Three cost-effectiveness analyses, all of which are modelled studies published as abstracts and/or posters, have been conducted with repaglinide in patients with type 2 diabetes. (ABSTRACT TRUNCATED)
Individual patient-level models can simulate more complex disease processes than cohort-based approaches. However, large numbers of patients need to be simulated to reduce 1st-order uncertainty, increasing the computational time required and often resulting in the inability to perform extensive sensitivity analyses. A solution, employing Gaussian process techniques, is presented using a case study, evaluating the cost-effectiveness of a sample of treatments for established osteoporosis. The Gaussian process model accurately formulated a statistical relationship between the inputs to the individual patient model and its outputs. This model reduced the time required for future runs from 150 min to virtually-instantaneous, allowing probabilistic sensitivity analyses-to be undertaken. This reduction in computational time was achieved with minimal loss in accuracy. The authors believe that this case study demonstrates the value of this technique in handling 1st- and 2nd-order uncertainty in the context of health economic modeling, particularly when more widely used techniques are computationally expensive or are unable to accurately model patient histories.
This study analyses an economic model of pregnancy resolution; that is, a model of the choice by a pregnant woman to abort her fetus or carry it to term. This analysis, using an analytical model derived from the household utility framework, adds to previous research by presenting race- and residence-specific estimates of how individual characteristics, history of abortion, and the community-based factors determine women's choices of giving birth vs. aborting. The main data for estimating the model were drawn from the 1984 vital statistics of all induced abortions and live births in the Commonwealth of Virginia. The major findings indicate that low parental education, high maternal age, previous early abortions, and the availability of abortion providers all significantly reduce the probability of choosing the live birth option. Married status and the availability of family planning clinics significantly increase the probability of the live birth option. The findings also suggest that women's choices between abortion and live birth vary substantially with race (White vs. Black) and residential (urban vs. rural) location.
BACKGROUND: Since 1995, every member-country of the World Trade Organization (WTO) has agreed to honor a 20-year patent-life, from the date of a pharmaceutical company's application for the patent, in the country of application. Patent protection retards competitive imitation of an invented product. This kind of protection is particularly important for pharmaceuticals, because pharmaceuticals that are not derived from biotechnology can be imitated easily and inexpensively. The economic function of a patent is to allow a period of above-normal profits for a technically and commercially successful product; these profits stimulate further investment and invention. However, direct price controls, or permutations of direct price controls on pharmaceutical compounds, can fully or partially circumvent the economic intent of patent agreements. OBJECTIVE: This paper formulates an economic model that takes into account demand and cost/supply dimensions of the output and pricing of a hypothetical pharmaceutical, extrapolating about the respective effects of direct price controls and lack of price controls, and describing permutations of direct price controls in different countries. RESULTS: The pharmaceutical industry depends on patents to fund the development and introduction of new products. A country can indirectly circumvent the economic logic of a patent by using price controls, but it cannot shift the economic costs of such a policy to another country that does not use price controls. Instead, less money is available for research and development (R&D). CONCLUSIONS: Pharmaceutical price controls allow some countries to avoid the constraints of patent agreements without breaking those agreements outright. This, in turn, reduces the amount of profit available for further R&D, which is a detriment to consumers worldwide.