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Evaluating local differences in breast cancer incidence rates: a census-based methodology (United States).

OBJECTIVES: We used readily accessible, existing data to assess whether or not geographic variation in breast cancer incidence rates in the San Francisco Bay Area was related to the unequal distribution of known breast cancer risk factors. METHODS: Cancer registry and 1990 census block-group data were used to look at the associations between breast cancer incidence and known risk factors (including parity, urban/rural status, and socioeconomic indicators) in 25 California counties. Average annual age-adjusted invasive breast cancer incidence rates were calculated for the period 1988-1992, and adjusted morbidity ratios were computed. RESULTS: While breast cancer incidence in Marin County was 9 percent higher than that of the other 24 counties combined (relative risk = 1.09, 95 percent confidence interval = 1.01-1.18), this increase appeared to be due to the unequal distribution of known risk factors. Block-groups that had a high level of any risk factor had higher incidence rates, regardless of geographic location. After multivariate adjustment, breast cancer incidence no longer differed between Marin and the other counties (adjusted morbidity ratio = 1.02). CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that the unequal distribution of known risk factors was responsible for Marin County's high breast cancer incidence rate.

Adolescent↗

State psychiatric hospital census after the 1999 Olmstead Decision: evidence of decelerating deinstitutionalization.

OBJECTIVE: The Supreme Court ruled in the 1999 Olmstead decision that "unjustified isolation" of individuals with disabilities in institutions is a violation of the Americans With Disabilities Act. This study examined the extent to which state psychiatric hospital census across the United States has changed significantly post-Olmstead. METHODS: Twenty years of national state hospital census data (1984-2003) were used to assess trends in the rate of declines from pre- to post-Olmstead periods. Data were organized into five four-year periods. RESULTS: Steady declines in the hospital census nationally were found over all periods, with especially large decreases in the 1990s. However, when the percent change in hospital census in the two periods immediately before the Olmstead decision (between 1992-1995 and 1996-1999) were compared with the percent change in the periods immediately before and immediately after the Olmstead decision (between 1996-1999 and 2000-2003), an 8 percent decrease in the magnitude of decline was seen. CONCLUSIONS: State hospital census continues to decline but has slowed significantly during the post-Olmstead period. More study of the factors associated with this decline is needed.

Censuses↗

Statistical analysis of spatial data in the presence of missing observations: a methodological guide and an application to urban census data.

"In this paper a simple introduction and guide to a widely applicable method for estimating missing data in fields of enquiry such as census maps or LANDSAT images are presented. The method given is a maximum likelihood procedure.... The algorithm is presented in the form of a simple tutorial guide. An example, of median income levels in Houston [Texas], is worked through in detail for missing cells in census data. The example is characterised by a variable mean and a general variance-covariance matrix."

Americas↗

The effects of age mis-statement on estimates of net migration.

"This paper presents an explicit derivation of effects of age misstatement on census survival rates (CSR) and life table survival rate (LTSR) estimates of net migration and net migration rates. In the presence of age misstatement, CSR estimates of migration and migration rates are generally biased, although the direction of bias is not always clear. The paper also shows how the analysis of errors due to age misstatement is related to past analyses of errors due to underenumeration."

Age Factors↗

Allocating census data to general practice populations: implications for study of prescribing variation at practice level.

OBJECTIVES: To assign census data to general practice populations and to test accuracy of different procedures for estimating the proportion of patients aged over 64. DESIGN: Patients' postcodes from patient register of one family health services authority and the directory linking postcodes to census enumeration districts were used to locate patients in their census area of residence. With different levels of census geography and four different allocation procedures, proportion of patients aged over 64 in each area was used to predict proportion of patients aged over 64 in each general practice. Predicted figures were compared with real figures from each practice register to assess accuracy of allocation methods. SETTING: Data from 1991 census and from 73 practices administered by one family health services authority. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Actual and predicted proportions of patients aged over 64 in general practice populations. RESULTS: Correlations between actual and predicted proportions of patients aged over 64 were significant for all four allocation procedures--values of 0.66, 0.7, 0.84, and 0.84 were achieved (P < 0.0005). Predicted ranges of proportions of patients aged over 64, however, were well short of those that actually existed, and significant differences existed between predicted percentages and actual figures for all four methods. CONCLUSION: Although predicted values correlated with actual values, the failure of the allocation procedures to correctly predict values, especially at the extremes, casts doubt on the validity of similar techniques for allocating census variables to general practice populations.

Age Factors↗

Complete censuses and samples.

"Complete decennial censuses are needed for small areas and other domains. Sample surveys yield diverse and timely data. Censuses can also be combined with samples, and sometimes with data from registers, for diverse estimates that are detailed over both space and time, and hence are timely for small domains. Methods of 'postcensal estimates' for small domains are described. We note uses of censuses for improving samples and of samples for improving censuses, and propose a method for cumulating data from 'rolling' (or rotating) periodic (weekly, monthly or quarterly) samples specifically designed to cover the population in detail over designed spans (annual and quinquennial)."

Censuses↗

Who's number one? The impact of variability on rankings based on public health indicators.

OBJECTIVE: Researchers, government, and the press often rank jurisdictions according to public health indicators; however, measures of uncertainty rarely accompany these comparisons. To demonstrate the variability associated with rankings that use public health measures, the authors examined the uncertainty associated with ranks based on three common methods used to derive public health indicators: age-adjustment, calculations based on census estimates, and calculations based on survey data. METHODS: The authors observed the effect of changing the standard population from the 1970 population to the 1997 population on rank-order lists of jurisdictions according to age-adjusted 1998 mortality rates. They used a Monte Carlo method to calculate confidence intervals (CIs) around ranks based on census estimates of 1998 infant mortality rates and based on 1999 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) survey data on the prevalence of hypertension. RESULTS: Changing the standard year from 1970 to 1997 resulted in a shift of at least three rank-order positions for seven states. Two states shifted five positions. CIs associated with ranking by infant mortality rates were broad, with a mean of 16 ranks. CIs around ranks for the prevalence of hypertension were also wide, with a mean of 18 ranks. CONCLUSION: While ranking based on public health indicators is an attractive and popular way of presenting public health data, caution and close examination of the underlying data are needed for proper interpretation. Alternative methods, such as longitudinal analysis or comparisons with standards, may prove more useful.

Age Factors↗

Cigarette smoking by New Zealand doctors and nurses: results from the 1996 population census.

AIM: To determine the prevalence of cigarette smoking among New Zealand doctors and nurses and to examine intercensal trends in smoking behaviour. METHODS: The 1996 New Zealand population census included two questions on cigarette smoking. The data for doctors and nurses have been analysed and compared with results from the 1976 and 1981 censuses. RESULTS: There were 7335 doctor respondents and 30,507 nurses. Five percent of male and female doctors smoke cigarettes regularly compared with 15% in 1981, 20% in 1976 and 35% in 1963. Almost 90% of doctors aged less than 30 years have never smoked and reductions in smoking have occurred in all specialties. Eighteen percent of nurses (18% females, 27% males) are smokers compared with 31% of females and 39% of males in 1981. The highest prevalence is among psychiatric nurses (31%) while only 10% of midwives and Plunket nurses are smokers. CONCLUSIONS: Doctors continue to lead the New Zealand community in non-smoking and the goal of a smokefree medical profession by the year 2000 may be achievable. In contrast to 1981, the prevalence of smoking by female nurses (18%) is now less than women in the general New Zealand population (23%). Substantial reductions in smoking have occurred in all categories of the nursing profession.

Adult↗

Age-period-cohort analysis of suicide rates in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 1979-1998.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies in Brazil have demonstrated that suicide rates have been rising over the last years. The objective of this study was to investigate trends in suicide from 1979 to 1998 in Rio de Janeiro State, with emphasis on age, period, and cohort effects. METHOD: Age-specific suicide rates from 1979 to 1998 were estimated for males and females based on mortality data obtained from the Brazilian Mortality Information System, and population counts from the 1980, 1991 and 2000 censuses. Poisson regression and graphical methods were used to evaluate age, period and cohort effects. RESULTS: Suicide rates increased steadily with age, particularly among males. In both males and females, age-adjusted suicide rates decreased until 1992. In 1993, rates started to rise. Cohort effects showed that younger generations had significantly lower rates of suicide than older ones. CONCLUSION: The recent rise in suicide rates might be a result of the increasing levels of firearm availability, drug use, and unemployment. Follow-up over longer periods and powerful epidemiological studies are needed to sustain the implication of socio-economic changes in the observed features.

Adolescent↗

Unlocking the numerator-denominator bias III: adjustment ratios by ethnicity for 1981-1999 mortality data. The New Zealand Census-Mortality Study.

AIM: Maori and Pacific deaths are under-counted in mortality data relative to census data. This 'numerator-denominator' bias means that routinely calculated mortality rates by ethnicity are incorrect. We used New Zealand Census-Mortality Study data to quantify the bias from 1981 to 1999. METHODS: The 1981, 1986, 1991 and 1996 Censuses were each anonymously and probabilistically linked to three years of subsequent mortality data, allowing a comparison of ethnicity recording. RESULTS: Compared with death registrations, 16% more 0-74 year old decedents during 1981-1984 had self-identified as '1/2 or more Maori' on the 1981 Census, and 32% more during both 1986-1989 and 1991-1994 had self-identified as 'sole Maori' on the 1986 and 1991 Censuses. From September 1995, mortality data have allowed multiple ethnicity to be recorded. During 1996-1999, 7% more decedents identified Maori as one of their ethnic groups on the 1996 Census compared with mortality data. For Pacific decedents, 55%, 76% and 68% more self-identified as 'sole Pacific' on census data compared with data recorded on death registrations for 1981-1984, 1986-1989 and 1991-1994 respectively, but there was no difference for 1996-1999. The bias for Maori (but not for Pacific) was greater among the young and those living in central and southern regions of New Zealand. CONCLUSIONS: The 1995 change to ethnicity recording on mortality data has improved the robustness of ethnicity data collection. These adjustment factors for 1981-1999 allow for more accurate calculations of ethnic-specific mortality rates over the last 20 years.

Adolescent↗

A methodological strategy for a one-number census in the UK.

"As a result of lessons learnt from the 1991 [U.K.] census, a research programme was set up to seek improvements in census methodology. Underenumeration has been placed top of the agenda in this programme, and every effort is being made to achieve as high a coverage as possible in the 2001 census. In recognition, however, that 100% coverage will never be achieved, the one-number census (ONC) project was established to measure the degree of underenumeration in the 2001 census and, if possible, to adjust fully the outputs from the census for that undercount. A key component of this adjustment process is a census coverage survey (CCS). This paper presents an overview of the ONC project, focusing on the design and analysis methodology for the CCS. It also presents results that allow the reader to evaluate the robustness of this methodology."

Censuses↗

The Aboriginal population of Victoria.

The basis of epidemiological studies and of health services planning is accurate enumeration of the population at risk. With regard to the Aboriginal population of Victoria there was reason to believe that official census statistics were inaccurate. Interviews were carried out with representatives of Aboriginal organizations, State and federal government departments concerned with Aboriginal affairs and other interested individuals. The best estimate of the Aboriginal population of Victoria arrived at by this method was almost double the census figure. Underestimation was most marked in rural areas.

Adolescent↗

[Master sample and geoprocessing: technologies for household surveys].

OBJECTIVE: To reduce cost and time associated with household sampling process and to assess the feasibility of shared use of address data file of census enumeration areas in several epidemiological surveys using updated information from the National Survey of Households (PNAD). METHODS: Address data file comprising 72 census enumeration areas was kept as primary sampling units for the city of S o Paulo. During the period 1995-2000, three distinct household samples were drawn using the two-stage cluster sampling procedure. Geographic Information System (GIS) technology allowed delimiting boundaries, blocks and streets for any primary sampling unit and printing updated maps for selected sub-samples. RESULTS: Twenty-five thousand dwellings made up the permanent address data file of the master sample. A cheaper and quicker selection of each sample, plus gathering information on demographic and topographical profiles of census enumeration areas were the main contribution of the study results. CONCLUSIONS: The master sample concept, integrated with GIS technology, is an advantageous alternative sampling design for household surveys in urban areas. Using the list of addresses from the PNAD updated yearly, although limiting its application to the most populated Brazilian cities, avoids the need of creating an independent sampling procedure for each individual survey carried out in the period between demographic censuses, and it is an important contribution for planning sampling surveys in public health.

Censuses↗

Census vs. effective population size in chinook salmon: large- and small-scale environmental perturbation effects.

Population viability has often been assessed by census of reproducing adults. Recently this method has been called into question and estimation of the effective population size (Ne) proposed as a complementary method to determine population health. We examined genetic diversity in five populations of chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) from the upper Fraser River watershed (British Columbia, Canada) at 11 microsatellite loci over 20 years using DNA extracted from archived scale samples. We tested for changes in genetic diversity, calculated the ratio of the number of alleles to the range in allele size to give the statistic M, calculated Ne from the temporal change in allele frequency, used the maximum likelihood method to calculate effective population size (NeM), calculated the harmonic mean of population size, and compared these statistics to annual census estimates. Over the last two decades population size has increased in all five populations of chinook examined; however, Ne calculated for each population was low (81-691) and decreasing over the time interval measured. Values of NeM were low, but substantially higher than Ne calculated using the temporal method. The calculated values for M were generally low (M < 0.70), indicating recent population reductions for all five populations. Large-scale historic barriers to migration and development activities do not appear to account for the low values of Ne; however, available spawning area is positively correlated with Ne. Both Ne and M estimates indicate that these populations are potentially susceptible to inbreeding effects and may lack the ability to respond adaptively to stochastic events. Our findings question the practice of relying exclusively on census estimates for interpreting population health and show the importance of determining genetic diversity within populations.

Animals↗

Survival during and after hospitalization: a medical record linkage.

BACKGROUND: In Sweden, hospital stays, deaths, and censuses have long been stored on electronic media. AIMS: To apply post-hospital survival measures to hospitals having different degrees of specialization by linking existing data in census and in-patient registers. METHOD: In-patient records totaling 3.6 million were collected. They were linked to the 1985 and 1990 censuses regarding patients' background data, and the cause of death registers. Observed three-month mortalities in 27 diagnoses were contrasted against the expected. RESULTS: The three-month survival was lower than expected in some large, and, more often, in small hospitals [corrected].

Cause of Death↗