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At least 613 records · Page 34Linked to original sources
PubMed2003

Global climate change and mammalian species diversity in U.S. national parks.

National parks and bioreserves are key conservation tools used to protect species and their habitats within the confines of fixed political boundaries. This inflexibility may be their "Achilles' heel" as conservation tools in the face of emerging global-scale environmental problems such as climate change. Global climate change, brought about by rising levels of greenhouse gases, threatens to alter the geographic distribution of many habitats and their component species. With these changes comes great uncertainty about the future ability of parks and protected areas to meet their conservation mandates. We report here on an analysis aimed at assessing the extent of mammalian species turnover that may be experienced in eight selected U.S. national parks if climate change causes mammalian species within the continental U.S. to relocate to new geographic locations. Due to species losses of up to 20% and drastic influxes of new species, national parks are not likely to meet their mandate of protecting current biodiversity within park boundaries. This approach represents a conservative prognosis. As species assemblages change, new interactions between species may lead to less predictable indirect effects of climate change, increasing the toll beyond that found in this study.

Animals↗
PubMed2002

Linking climate change and biological invasions: Ocean warming facilitates nonindigenous species invasions.

The spread of exotic species and climate change are among the most serious global environmental threats. Each independently causes considerable ecological damage, yet few data are available to assess whether changing climate might facilitate invasions by favoring introduced over native species. Here, we compare our long-term record of weekly sessile marine invertebrate recruitment with interannual variation in water temperature to assess the likely effect of climate change on the success and spread of introduced species. For the three most abundant introduced species of ascidian (sea squirt), the timing of the initiation of recruitment was strongly negatively correlated with winter water temperature, indicating that invaders arrived earlier in the season in years with warmer winters. Total recruitment of introduced species during the following summer also was positively correlated with winter water temperature. In contrast, the magnitude of native ascidian recruitment was negatively correlated with winter temperature (more recruitment in colder years) and the timing of native recruitment was unaffected. In manipulative laboratory experiments, two introduced compound ascidians grew faster than a native species, but only at temperatures near the maximum observed in summer. These data suggest that the greatest effects of climate change on biotic communities may be due to changing maximum and minimum temperatures rather than annual means. By giving introduced species an earlier start, and increasing the magnitude of their growth and recruitment relative to natives, global warming may facilitate a shift to dominance by nonnative species, accelerating the homogenization of the global biota.

Animal Migration↗
PubMed1994

Climate change and temperature-dependent sex determination in reptiles.

Despite increasing concern over the possible impact of global temperature change, there is little empirical evidence of direct temperature effects on biotic interactions in natural systems. Clear assessment of the ecological and evolutionary impact of changing climatic temperature requires a natural system in which populations exhibit a direct unambiguous fitness response to thermal fluctuation. I monitored nests of a population of painted turtles (Chrysemys picta) with temperature-dependent sex determination to investigate the causal relationship between local climatic variation in temperature and offspring sex ratio. Consistent with theoretical predictions, annual offspring sex ratio was highly correlated with mean July air temperature, validating concerns about the effect of climate change on population demography. This correlation implies that even modest increases in mean temperature (< 2 degrees C) may drastically skew the sex ratio. Statistical evaluation of the variance in climate change indicates that an increase in mean temperature of 4 degrees C would effectively eliminate production of male offspring. Quantitative genetic analyses and behavioral data suggest that populations with temperature-dependent sex determination may be unable to evolve rapidly enough to counteract the negative fitness consequences of rapid global temperature change. Populations of species with temperature-dependent sex determination may serve as ideal indicators of the biological impact of global temperature change.

Animals↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Climate change and malaria: exploring the risks.

That the enhanced greenhouse effect may prove to influence human health will come as no surprise. One of the potential health consequences is a change in distribution patterns of vector-borne diseases. In tropical countries, such diseases are a major cause of illness and death. One of the most important vector-borne diseases in the world is malaria, which is associated with one of four species of parasite and transmitted by a mosquito vector. Climatic conditions, and temperature in particular, directly influence mosquito development, feeding-frequency and longevity of the mosquito, as well as the time in which the parasite develops inside the mosquito. Other environmental factors such as vegetation and breeding sites are indirectly influenced by climate conditions. In order to assess the impact of an anthropogenic climate change on the transmission of malaria, an integrated assessment model has been developed. In this integrated model, the direct effects of a change in temperature and precipitation on the transmission potential of a mosquito population is assessed by means of the vectorial capacity. The effect of a human-induced climate change on human health is evaluated by assessing the change in malaria prevalence and disease burden. A sustainable development index, which is an aggregate of an environmental pressure indicator, a health indicator and a socio-economic development indicator is introduced and discussed. Such an index can be used to determine whether future projections are sustainable.

Animals↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Climate variability and the energetic pathways of evolution: the origin of endothermy in mammals and birds.

Large-scale climate oscillations in earth's history have influenced the directions of evolution, last but not least, through mass extinction events. This analysis tries to identify some unifying forces behind the course of evolution that favored an increase in organismic complexity and performance, paralleled by an increase in energy turnover, and finally led to endothermy. The analysis builds on the recent concept of oxygen-limited thermal tolerance and on the hypothesis that unifying principles exist in the temperature-dependent biochemical design of the eukaryotic cell in animals. The comparison of extant water-breathing and air-breathing animal species from various climates provides a cause-and-effect understanding of the trade-offs and constraints in thermal adaptation and their energetic consequences. It is hypothesized that the high costs of functional adaptation to fluctuating temperatures, especially in the cold (cold eurythermy), cause an increase in energy turnover and, at the same time, mobility and agility. These costs are associated with elevated mitochondrial capacities at minimized levels of activation enthalpies for proton leakage. Cold eurythermy is seen as a precondition for the survival of evolutionary crises elicited by repeated cooling events during extreme climate fluctuations. The costs of cold eurythermy appear as the single most important reason why metazoan evolution led to life forms with high energy turnover. They also explain why dinosaurs were able to live in subpolar climates. Finally, they give insight into the pathways, benefits, and trade-offs involved in the evolution of constant, elevated body temperature maintained by endothermy. Eurythermy, which encompasses cold tolerance, is thus hypothesized to be the "missing link" between ectothermy and endothermy. Body temperatures between 32 degrees and 42 degrees C in mammals and birds then result from trade-offs between the limiting capacities of ventilation and circulation and the evolutionary trend to maximize performance at the warm end of the thermal tolerance window.

Adaptation, Physiological↗
PubMed2003

Climate variability and transmission of Japanese encephalitis in eastern China.

A time-series analysis was conducted to study the impact of climate variability on the transmission of Japanese encephalitis in eastern China. Correlation and regression analyses were used to examine the relationship between monthly climatic variables and monthly incidence of Japanese encephalitis in Jieshou County, China over the period 1980-96. Spearman's correlation analysis showed that maximum and minimum temperatures and rainfall were all associated with the transmission of Japanese encephalitis in the county. Regression analysis suggested that monthly mean minimum temperature and monthly precipitation had a significant relationship with the transmission of Japanese encephalitis, with a 1-month lag effect. The results indicated that these climatic variables might be treated as possible predictors for regions with similar geographic, climatic, and socio-economic conditions to Jieshou County.

China↗
PubMed2002

Effects of climate, latitude, and season on the incidence of Bell's palsy in the US Armed Forces, October 1997 to September 1999.

Bell's palsy is a relatively common disease characterized by the sudden onset of unilateral facial paralysis. Using a centralized surveillance system that contains demographic, military assignment, and medical encounter data of US military service members, the authors estimated rates, trends, and demographic correlates of risk of Bell's palsy during a 2-year period. Poisson regression was used to estimate the independent effects of climate, season, and latitude. From October 1997 to September 1999, there were 1,181 incident cases of Bell's palsy among US service members. The crude incidence rate was 42.77 per 100,000 person-years. Incidence rates increased with age and were higher among females, Blacks, Hispanics, married persons, and enlisted service members. Both climate (adjusted rate ratio for arid vs. nonarid climate = 1.34) and season (adjusted rate ratio for cold vs. warm months = 1.31) were independent predictors of risk of Bell's palsy. Latitude was not a statistically significant predictor when demographic, climate, and season effects were taken into account. The results are consistent with hypotheses regarding viral etiologies (e.g., reactivation of herpes simplex) of Bell's palsy.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2005

Intra-annual variations in climate influence growth and wood density of Norway spruce.

Intra-annual radial growth variations of two Norway spruce trees (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) were monitored over 4 years, at four heights up the stem, by means of point-dendrometers. The trees were then felled and radial wood samples were cut from the radii that had been monitored by the dendrometers and analyzed for density. From the radial growth measurements recorded by the dendrometers, we related positions within the rings to dates, thus making possible investigation of the relationships between changes within the rings in wood density and fluctuations in climate or growth rate. Radial growth started in early April and ended, with large intra-annual differences, in August or September. Short-term variations in growth rate were related to fluctuations in climate parameters and soil water reserves. The sensitivity of radial growth to climate decreased with stem height. Wood density responded strongly to drought events, and a dry period in June 1996 induced false-ring formation. Wood density was relatively independent of growth rate and climatic conditions during the first part of the growing season, but increased with decreasing radial growth rate later in the growing season.

Climate↗
PubMedDate not supplied

The public health impact of global climate change.

Accurate predictions of the public health impact of global climatic changes are hampered by the absence of a dose-response relationship between climate change and human health and imprecise, often conflicting, meteorological models of climate change. Public health officials are obligated to educate policy makers and the public about the significant threats posed to population health and quality of life by the inexorable progression of global climate change. Only an enlightened public consciousness can muster the political will required to press for policy changes and to support new technologies to conserve energy and to protect the environment from manmade agents of destruction.

Animals↗
PubMed2005

Constraints on plastic responses to climate variation in red deer.

Influences of climate on life history traits in natural populations are well documented. However, the implications of between-individual variation in phenotypic plasticity underlying observed trait-environment relationships are rarely considered due to the large, long-term datasets required for such analysis. Studies typically present correlations of annual trait means with climate or assume that individual phenotypic responses are constant. Here, we examine this additional level of variation and show that, in a red deer population on the Isle of Rum, Scotland, changes in climate generate changes in phenotype only amongst individuals who have experienced favourable ecological conditions. Examination of relationships between offspring birth weight and spring temperature within the lifetimes of individual females revealed that the tendency to respond to climate declined as the population density experienced early in life increased. The presence of such systematic variation in individual plasticity is rarely documented in the wild, and has important implications for our understanding of the environmental dependencies of traits under varying ecological conditions.

Acclimatization↗
PubMed1998

Population dynamics of Norwegian red deer: density-dependence and climatic variation.

We present a model on plant-deer climate interactions developed for improving our understanding of the temporal dynamics of deer abundance and, in particular, how intrinsic (density-dependent) and extrinsic (plants, climate) factors influence these dynamics. The model was tested statistically by analysing the dynamics of five Norwegian red deer populations between 1964 and 1993. Direct and delayed density-dependence significantly influenced the development of the populations: delayed density-dependence primarily operated through female density, whereas direct density-dependence acted through both female and male densities. Furthermore, population dynamics of Norwegian red deer were significantly affected by climate (as measured by the global weather phenomenon, the North Atlantic Oscillation: NAO). Warm, snowy winters (high NAO) were associated with decreased deer abundance, whereas the delayed (two-year) effect of warm, snowy winters had a positive effect on deer abundance. Our analyses are argued to have profound implications for the general understanding of climate change and terrestrial ecosystem functioning.

Animals↗
PubMed1998

Mapping the ranges and relative abundance of the two principal African malaria vectors, Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto and An. arabiensis, using climate data.

Members of the Anopheles gambiae complex are major malaria vectors in Africa. We tested the hypothesis that the range and relative abundance of the two major vectors in the complex, An. gambiae sensu stricto and An. arabiensis, could be defined by climate. Climate was characterized at mosquito survey sites by extracting data for each location from climate surfaces using a Geographical Information System. Annual precipitation, together with annual and wet season temperature, defined the ranges of both vectors and were used to map suitable climate zones. Using data from West Africa, we found that where the species were sympatric, An. gambiae s.s. predominated in saturated environments, and An. arabiensis was more common in sites subject to desiccation (r2 = 0.875, p < 0.001). We used the nonlinear equation that best described this relationship to map habitat suitability across Africa. This simple model predicted accurately the relative abundance of both vectors in Tanzania (rs = 0.745, p = 0.002), where species composition is highly variable. The combined maps of species' range and relative abundance showed very good agreement with published maps. This technique represents a new approach to mapping the distribution of malaria vectors over large areas and may facilitate species-specific vector control activities.

Animals↗
PubMed2001

Timing of squid migration reflects North Atlantic climate variability.

The environmental and biotic conditions affecting fisheries for cephalopods are only partially understood. A problem central to this is how climate change may influence population movements by altering the availability of thermal resources. In this study we investigate the links between climate and sea-temperature changes and squid arrival time off southwestern England over a 20-year period. We show that veined squid (Loligo forbesi) migrate eastward in the English Channel earlier when water in the preceding months is warmer, and that higher temperatures and early arrival correspond with warm (positive) phases of the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO). The timing of squid peak abundance advanced by 120-150 days in the warmest years ('early' years) compared with the coldest ('late' years). Furthermore, sea-bottom temperature was closely linked to the extent of squid movement. Temperature increases over the five months prior to and during the month of peak squid abundance did not differ between early and late years, indicating squid responded to temperature changes independently of time of year. We conclude that the temporal variation in peak abundance of squid seen off Plymouth represents temperature-dependent movement, which is in turn mediated by climatic changes associated with the NAO. Such climate-mediated movement may be a widespread characteristic of cephalopod populations worldwide, and may have implications for future fisheries management because global warming may alter both the timing and location of peak population abundance.

Animal Migration↗
PubMed2002

Responses of butterflies to twentieth century climate warming: implications for future ranges.

We analyse distribution records for 51 British butterfly species to investigate altitudinal and latitudinal responses to twentieth century climate warming. Species with northern and/or montane distributions have disappeared from low elevation sites and colonized sites at higher elevations during the twentieth century, consistent with a climate explanation. We found no evidence for a systematic shift northwards across all species, even though 11 out of 46 southerly distributed species have expanded in the northern part of their distributions. For a subset of 35 species, we model the role of climate in limiting current European distributions and predict potential future distributions for the period 2070-2099. Most northerly distributed species will have little opportunity to expand northwards and will disappear from areas in the south, resulting in reduced range sizes. Southerly distributed species will have the potential to shift northwards, resulting in similar or increased range sizes. However, 30 out of 35 study species have failed to track recent climate changes because of lack of suitable habitat, so we revised our estimates accordingly for these species and predicted 65% and 24% declines in range sizes for northern and southern species, respectively. These revised estimates are likely to be more realistic predictions of future butterfly range sizes.

Adaptation, Physiological↗
PubMed2003

Global patterns in endemism explained by past climatic change.

I propose that global patterns in numbers of range-restricted endemic species are caused by variation in the amplitude of climatic change occurring on time-scales of 10-100 thousand years (Milankovitch oscillations). The smaller the climatic shifts, the more probable it is that palaeoendemics survive and that diverging gene pools persist without going extinct or merging, favouring the evolution of neoendemics. Using the change in mean annual temperature since the last glacial maximum, estimated from global circulation models, I show that the higher the temperature change in an area, the fewer endemic species of mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians and vascular plants it harbours. This relationship was robust to variation in area (for areas greater than 10(4) km2), latitudinal position, extent of former glaciation and whether or not areas are oceanic islands. Past climatic change was a better predictor of endemism than annual temperature range in all phylads except amphibians, suggesting that Rapoport's rule (i.e. species range sizes increase with latitude) is best explained by the increase in the amplitude of climatic oscillations towards the poles. Globally, endemic-rich areas are predicted to warm less in response to greenhouse-gas emissions, but the predicted warming would cause many habitats to disappear regionally, leading to species extinctions.

Adaptation, Physiological↗
PubMed2004

Regional climatic warming drives long-term community changes of British marine fish.

Climatic change has been implicated as the cause of abundance fluctuations in marine fish populations worldwide, but the effects on whole communities are poorly understood. We examined the effects of regional climatic change on two fish assemblages using independent datasets from inshore marine (English Channel, 1913-2002) and estuarine environments (Bristol Channel, 1981-2001). Our results show that climatic change has had dramatic effects on community composition. Each assemblage contained a subset of dominant species whose abundances were strongly linked to annual mean sea-surface temperature. Species' latitudinal ranges were not good predictors of species-level responses, however, and the same species did not show congruent trends between sites. This suggests that within a region, populations of the same species may respond differently to climatic change, possibly owing to additional local environmental determinants, interspecific ecological interactions and dispersal capacity. This will make species-level responses difficult to predict within geographically differentiated communities.

Animals↗
PubMed2004

A method for reconstructing climate from fossil beetle assemblages.

Fossil beetle remains have been used to reconstruct temperatures. One method by which these reconstructions are made--the Mutual Climatic Range method--is based on the overlap of the observed modern climatic ranges of the beetles present in a fossil sample. A limitation of this method is that it does not exploit variations in the rate of occurrence of a species within its climatic range. We present an alternative method that uses observed variations in this rate in modern data for climate reconstruction. The method is shown to perform well in an experiment using modern data from North America.

Algorithms↗
PubMed2004

Geographical potential of Argentine ants (Linepithema humile Mayr) in the face of global climate change.

Determining the spread and potential geographical distribution of invasive species is integral to making invasion biology a predictive science. We assembled a dataset of over 1000 occurrences of the Argentine ant (Linepithema humile), one of the world's worst invasive alien species. Native to central South America, Argentine ants are now found in many Mediterranean and subtropical climates around the world. We used this dataset to assess the species' potential geographical and ecological distribution, and to examine changes in its distributional potential associated with global climate change, using techniques for ecological niche modelling. Models developed were highly predictive of the species' overall range, including both the native distributional area and invaded areas worldwide. Despite its already widespread occurrence, L. humile has potential for further spread, with tropical coastal Africa and southeast Asia apparently vulnerable to invasion. Projecting ecological niche models onto four general circulation model scenarios of future (2050s) climates provided scenarios of the species' potential for distributional expansion with warming climates: generally, the species was predicted to retract its range in tropical regions, but to expand at higher latitude areas.

Animals↗