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At least 595 records · Page 33Linked to original sources

Climate dependency of tree growth suppressed by acid deposition effects on soils in northwest Russia.

Increased tree growth in temperate and boreal forests has been proposed as a direct consequence of a warming climate. Acid deposition effects on nutrient availability may influence the climate dependency of tree growth, however. This study presents an analysis of archived soil samples that has enabled changes in soil chemistry to be tracked with patterns of tree growth through the 20th century. Soil samples collected in 1926, 1964, and 2001, near St. Petersburg, Russia, showed that acid deposition was likely to have decreased root-available concentrations of Ca (an essential element) and increased root-available concentrations of Al (an inhibitor of Ca uptake). These soil changes coincided with decreased diameter growth and a suppression of climate-tree growth relationships in Norway spruce. Expected increases in tree growth from climate warming may be limited by decreased soil fertility in regions of northern and eastern Europe, and eastern North America, where Ca availability has been reduced by acidic deposition.

Acid Rain↗

Fluctuations of climatic conditions, elemental cycling and forest growth at the watershed scale.

The relationships between fluctuations in climatic conditions, forest productivity and elemental cycling were studied from 1994 to 1997 in a headwater catchment of the southern Laurentians dominated by sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) growing on podzolic soils. Annual budgets show that H+, K, and NO3 were retained in the watershed while Ca, Mg and Na were lost. The magnitude of the net annual budget for Ca, Mg and Na was correlated to annual variations in precipitation with the absolute budget value decreasing during dry years. Stemwood (r2 = 0.85) and total tree biomass production (r2 = 0.99) were correlated with mean annual temperature but fine roots and leaf litter were not. During the growing season, the pH of the organic horizons (FH) decreased as the volumetric water content of soil decreased. A positive association was also found between air temperature and H2O-soluble (r2 = 0.88) and PO4-extractable (r2 = 0.99) SO4 in the upper B horizon. On a multiyear scale, we suspect that the decrease in the storage of inorganic SO4 in the soil results from the cumulative effects of annual variations in climatic conditions superimposed on the long-term decrease in SO4 deposition from the atmosphere. These soil changes were reflected by a decline in SO4, Ca and Mg concentrations in the stream. The generalisation of the observed short-term patterns to longer time scales must be approached with caution. Yet, our results indicate that the associations between climatic variations and the biogeochemistry of the ecosystem occur at different spatial and temporal scales and integrate a broad range of chemical components and ecosystem compartments. This reflects the inherent complexity of natural systems and offers a vast palette of indicators of the response of terrestrial ecosystems to variations in the intensity of environmental factors such as climatic conditions.

Biomass↗

Assessment of climate change effects on Canada's National Park system.

To estimate the magnitude of climate change anticipated for Canada's 38 National Parks (NPs) and Park Reserves, seasonal temperature and precipitation scenarios were constructed for 2050 and 2090 using the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) coupled model (CGCM1). For each park, we assessed impacts on physical systems, species, ecosystems and people. Important, widespread changes relate to marine and freshwater hydrology, glacial balance, waning permafrost, increased natural disturbance, shorter ice season, northern and upward altitudinal species and biome shifts, and changed visitation patterns. Other changes are regional (e.g., combined East coast subsidence and sea level rise increase coastal erosion and deposition, whereas, on the Pacific coast, tectonic uplift negates sea level rise). Further predictions concern individual parks (e.g., Unique fens of Bruce Peninsular NP will migrate lakewards with lowered water levels, but structural regulation of Lake Huron for navigation and power generation would destroy the fens). Knowledge gaps are the most important findings. For example: we could not form conclusions about glacial mass balance, or its effects on rivers and fjords. Likewise, for the East Coast Labrador Current we could neither estimate temperature and salinity effects of extra iceberg formation, nor the further effects on marine food chains, and breeding park seabirds. We recommend 1) Research on specific large knowledge gaps; 2) Climate change information exchange with protected area agencies in other northern countries; and 3) incorporating climate uncertainty into park plans and management. We discuss options for a new park management philosophy in the face of massive change and uncertainty.

Animals↗

Possible role of oceanic heat transport in early Eocene climate.

Increased oceanic heat transport has often been cited as a means of maintaining warm high-latitude surface temperatures in many intervals of the geologic past, including the early Eocene. Although the excess amount of oceanic heat transport required by warm high latitude sea surface temperatures can be calculated empirically, determining how additional oceanic heat transport would take place has yet to be accomplished. That the mechanisms of enhanced poleward oceanic heat transport remain undefined in paleoclimate reconstructions is an important point that is often overlooked. Using early Eocene climate as an example, we consider various ways to produce enhanced poleward heat transport and latitudinal energy redistribution of the sign and magnitude required by interpreted early Eocene conditions. Our interpolation of early Eocene paleotemperature data indicate that an approximately 30% increase in poleward heat transport would be required to maintain Eocene high-latitude temperatures. This increased heat transport appears difficult to accomplish by any means of ocean circulation if we use present ocean circulation characteristics to evaluate early Eocene rates. Either oceanic processes were very different from those of the present to produce the early Eocene climate conditions or oceanic heat transport was not the primary cause of that climate. We believe that atmospheric processes, with contributions from other factors, such as clouds, were the most likely primary cause of early Eocene climate.

Atmosphere↗

Evidence for decoupling of atmospheric CO2 and global climate during the Phanerozoic eon.

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are believed to drive climate changes from glacial to interglacial modes, although geological and astronomical mechanisms have been invoked as ultimate causes. Additionally, it is unclear whether the changes between cold and warm modes should be regarded as a global phenomenon, affecting tropical and high-latitude temperatures alike, or if they are better described as an expansion and contraction of the latitudinal climate zones, keeping equatorial temperatures approximately constant. Here we present a reconstruction of tropical sea surface temperatures throughout the Phanerozoic eon (the past approximately 550 Myr) from our database of oxygen isotopes in calcite and aragonite shells. The data indicate large oscillations of tropical sea surface temperatures in phase with the cold-warm cycles, thus favouring the idea of climate variability as a global phenomenon. But our data conflict with a temperature reconstruction using an energy balance model that is forced by reconstructed atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. The results can be reconciled if atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were not the principal driver of climate variability on geological timescales for at least one-third of the Phanerozoic eon, or if the reconstructed carbon dioxide concentrations are not reliable.

Animals↗

Lagged effects of ocean climate change on fulmar population dynamics.

Environmental variation reflected by the North Atlantic Oscillation affects breeding and survival in terrestrial vertebrates, and climate change is predicted to have an impact on population dynamics by influencing food quality or availability. The North Atlantic Oscillation also affects the abundance of marine fish and zooplankton, but it is unclear whether this filters up trophic levels to long-lived marine top predators. Here we show by analysis of data from a 50-year study of the fulmar that two different indices of ocean climate variation may have lagged effects on population dynamics in this procellariiform seabird. Annual variability in breeding performance is influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation, whereas cohort differences in recruitment are related to temperature changes in the summer growing season in the year of birth. Because fulmars exhibit delayed reproduction, there is a 5-year lag in the population's response to these effects of environmental change. These data show how interactions between different climatic factors result in complex dynamics, and that the effects of climate change may take many years to become apparent in long-lived marine top predators.

Animals↗

Climate change and the resurgence of malaria in the East African highlands.

The public health and economic consequences of Plasmodium falciparum malaria are once again regarded as priorities for global development. There has been much speculation on whether anthropogenic climate change is exacerbating the malaria problem, especially in areas of high altitude where P. falciparum transmission is limited by low temperature. The International Panel on Climate Change has concluded that there is likely to be a net extension in the distribution of malaria and an increase in incidence within this range. We investigated long-term meteorological trends in four high-altitude sites in East Africa, where increases in malaria have been reported in the past two decades. Here we show that temperature, rainfall, vapour pressure and the number of months suitable for P. falciparum transmission have not changed significantly during the past century or during the period of reported malaria resurgence. A high degree of temporal and spatial variation in the climate of East Africa suggests further that claimed associations between local malaria resurgences and regional changes in climate are overly simplistic.

Africa, Eastern↗

Extraction of a weak climatic signal by an ecosystem.

The complexity of ecosystems can cause subtle and chaotic responses to changes in external forcing. Although ecosystems may not normally behave chaotically, sensitivity to external influences associated with nonlinearity can lead to amplification of climatic signals. Strong correlations between an El Niño index and rainfall and maize yield in Zimbabwe have been demonstrated; the correlation with maize yield was stronger than that with rainfall. A second example is the 100,000-year ice-age cycle, which may arise from a weak cycle in radiation through its influence on the concentration of atmospheric CO2 (ref. 5). Such integration of a weak climatic signal has yet to be demonstrated in a realistic theoretical system. Here we use a particular climatic phenomenon-the observed association between plankton populations around the UK and the position of the Gulf Stream-as a probe to demonstrate how a detailed marine ecosystem model extracts a weak signal that is spread across different meteorological variables. Biological systems may therefore respond to climatic signals other than those that dominate the driving variables.

Animals↗

Reducing uncertainty about carbon dioxide as a climate driver.

The lack of an adequate ancient analogue for future climates means that we ultimately must use and trust climate models, evaluated against modern observation and our best geologic records of warm and cold climates of the past. Armed with an elevated confidence in the models, we will then be able to make reliable predictions of the Earth's response to our risky experiment with the climate system.

Carbon Dioxide↗

Refractory periods and climate forcing in cholera dynamics.

Outbreaks of many infectious diseases, including cholera, malaria and dengue, vary over characteristic periods longer than 1 year. Evidence that climate variability drives these interannual cycles has been highly controversial, chiefly because it is difficult to isolate the contribution of environmental forcing while taking into account nonlinear epidemiological dynamics generated by mechanisms such as host immunity. Here we show that a critical interplay of environmental forcing, specifically climate variability, and temporary immunity explains the interannual disease cycles present in a four-decade cholera time series from Matlab, Bangladesh. We reconstruct the transmission rate, the key epidemiological parameter affected by extrinsic forcing, over time for the predominant strain (El Tor) with a nonlinear population model that permits a contributing effect of intrinsic immunity. Transmission shows clear interannual variability with a strong correspondence to climate patterns at long periods (over 7 years, for monsoon rains and Brahmaputra river discharge) and at shorter periods (under 7 years, for flood extent in Bangladesh, sea surface temperatures in the Bay of Bengal and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation). The importance of the interplay between extrinsic and intrinsic factors in determining disease dynamics is illustrated during refractory periods, when population susceptibility levels are low as the result of immunity and the size of cholera outbreaks only weakly reflects climate forcing.

Bangladesh↗

Climatic adaptation of Drosophila buzzatii populations in southeast Australia.

Variation in 19 traits possibly relevant for thermal adaptation was studied in 11 populations of Drosophila buzzatii collected in southeast Australia. Using stepwise multiple regression, the variation was compared to variation in geographic coordinates and to a set of climatic variables estimated for each collection site. For 13 of the traits, a significant part of the variation was explained by climatic variables and/or geographic coordinates, suggesting directional selection for adaptation to the environment in the majority of traits studied. In 10 of the traits, both geographic coordinates and climatic variables explained significant proportions of the variation, with R2 ranging from 0.075 to 0.58. Although larvae, pupae and adults of D. buzzatii share a common habitat, the measured traits were not correlated across life stages and gender. Also, there seemed to be special conditions in marginal populations near species borders, giving rise to nonlinear relations with latitude. Climate apparently does influence the adaptive evolution of the traits studied, but they also are affected by other factors that vary with latitude, longitude and distance to coast. These results highlight the complex challenges imposed by the environment on the adaptive process.

Acclimatization↗

Interactive effects of ozone depletion and climate change on biogeochemical cycles.

The effects of ozone depiction on global biogeochemical cycles, via increased UV-B radiation at the Earth's surface, have continued to be documented over the past 4 years. In this report we also document various effects of UV-B that interact with global climate change because the detailed interactions between ozone depletion and climate change are central to the prediction and evaluation of future Earth environmental conditions. There is increasing evidence that elevated UV-B has significant effects on the terrestrial biosphere with important implications for the cycling of carbon, nitrogen and other elements. Increased UV has been shown to induce carbon monoxide production from dead plant matter in terrestrial ecosystems, nitrogen oxide production from Arctic and Antarctic snowpacks, and halogenated substances from several terrestrial ecosystems. New studies on UV effects on the decomposition of dead leaf material confirm that these effects are complex and species-specific. Decomposition can be retarded, accelerated or remain unchanged. It has been difficult to relate effects of UV on decomposition rates to leaf litter chemistry, as this is very variable. However, new evidence shows UV effects on some fungi, bacterial communities and soil fauna that could play roles in decomposition and nutrient cycling. An important new result is that not only is nitrogen cycling in soils perturbed significantly by increased UV-B, but that these effects persist for over a decade. As nitrogen cycling is temperature dependent, this finding clearly links the impacts of ozone depletion to the ability of plants to use nitrogen in a warming global environment. There are many other potential interactions between UV and climate change impacts on terrestrial biogeochemical cycles that remain to be quantified. There is also new evidence that UV-B strongly influences aquatic carbon, nitrogen, sulfur, and metals cycling that affect a wide range of life processes. UV-B accelerates the decomposition of colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) entering the sea via terrestrial runoff, thus having important effects on oceanic carbon cycle dynamics. Since UV-B influences the distribution of CDOM, there is an impact of UV-B on estimates of oceanic productivity based on remote sensing of ocean color. Thus, oceanic productivity estimates based on remote sensing require estimates of CDOM distributions. Recent research shows that UV-B transforms dissolved organic matter to dissolved inorganic carbon and nitrogen, including carbon dioxide and ammonium and to organic substances that are either more or less readily available to micro-organisms. The extent of these transformations is correlated with loss of UV absorbance by the organic matter. Changes in aquatic primary productivity and decomposition due to climate-related changes in circulation and nutrient supply, which occur concurrently with increased UV-B exposure, have synergistic influences on the penetration of light into aquatic ecosystems. New research has confirmed that UV affects the biological availability of iron, copper and other trace metals in aquatic environments thus potentially affecting the growth of phytoplankton and other microorganisms that are involved in carbon and nitrogen cycling. There are several instances where UV-B modifies the air sea exchange of trace gases that in turn alter atmospheric chemistry, including the carbon cycle.

Climate↗

Spatial synchrony of local populations has increased in association with the recent Northern Hemisphere climate trend.

According to ecological theory, populations whose dynamics are entrained by environmental correlation face increased extinction risk as environmental conditions become more synchronized spatially. This prediction is highly relevant to the study of ecological consequences of climate change. Recent empirical studies have indicated, for example, that large-scale climate synchronizes trophic interactions and population dynamics over broad spatial scales in freshwater and terrestrial systems. Here, we present an analysis of century-scale, spatially replicated data on local weather and the population dynamics of caribou in Greenland. Our results indicate that spatial autocorrelation in local weather has increased with large-scale climatic warming. This increase in spatial synchrony of environmental conditions has been matched, in turn, by an increase in the spatial synchrony of local caribou populations toward the end of the 20th century. Our results indicate that spatial synchrony in environmental conditions and the populations influenced by them are highly variable through time and can increase with climatic warming. We suggest that if future warming can increase population synchrony, it may also increase extinction risk.

Animals↗

Recurrent evolution of herbivory in small, cold-climate lizards: breaking the ecophysiological rules of reptilian herbivory.

Herbivory has evolved in many groups of vertebrates, but it is rare among both extinct and extant nonavian reptiles. Among squamate reptiles, (lizards, snakes, and their relatives), <2% of the >7,800 species are considered to be herbivorous, and herbivory is restricted to lizards. Here, we show that within a group of South American lizards (Liolaemidae, approximately 170 species), herbivory has evolved more frequently than in all other squamates combined and at a rate estimated to be >65 times faster. Furthermore, in contrast to other herbivorous lizards and to existing theory, most herbivorous liolaemids are small bodied and live in cool climates. Herbivory is generally thought to evolve only in reptile species that are large bodied, live in warm climates, and maintain high body temperatures. These three well known "rules" of herbivory are considered to form the bases of physiological constraints that explain the paucity of herbivorous reptile species. We suggest that the recurrent and paradoxical evolution of herbivory in liolaemids is explained by a combination of environmental conditions (promoting independent origins of herbivory in isolated cool-climate regions), ecophysiological constraints (requiring small body size in cool climates, yet high body temperatures for herbivores), and phylogenetic history. More generally, our study demonstrates how integrating information from ecophysiology and phylogeny can help to explain macroevolutionary trends.

Animals↗

Exceptional record of mid-Pleistocene vertebrates helps differentiate climatic from anthropogenic ecosystem perturbations.

Mid-Pleistocene vertebrates in North America are scarce but important for recognizing the ecological effects of climatic change in the absence of humans. We report on a uniquely rich mid-Pleistocene vertebrate sequence from Porcupine Cave, Colorado, which records at least 127 species and the earliest appearances of 30 mammals and birds. By analyzing >20,000 mammal fossils in relation to modern species and independent climatic proxies, we determined how mammal communities reacted to presumed glacial-interglacial transitions between 1,000,000 and 600,000 years ago. We conclude that climatic warming primarily affected mammals of lower trophic and size categories, in contrast to documented human impacts on higher trophic and size categories historically. Despite changes in species composition and minor changes in small-mammal species richness evident at times of climatic change, overall structural stability of mammal communities persisted >600,000 years before human impacts.

Animals↗

Ecosystem recovery after climatic extremes enhanced by genotypic diversity.

Contemporary climate change is characterized both by increasing mean temperature and increasing climate variability such as heat waves, storms, and floods. How populations and communities cope with such climatic extremes is a question central to contemporary ecology and biodiversity conservation. Previous work has shown that species diversity can affect ecosystem functioning and resilience. Here, we show that genotypic diversity can replace the role of species diversity in a species-poor coastal ecosystem, and it may buffer against extreme climatic events. In a manipulative field experiment, increasing the genotypic diversity of the cosmopolitan seagrass Zostera marina enhanced biomass production, plant density, and faunal abundance, despite near-lethal water temperatures due to extreme warming across Europe. Net biodiversity effects were explained by genotypic complementarity rather than by selection of particularly robust genotypes. Positive effects on invertebrate fauna suggest that genetic diversity has second-order effects reaching higher trophic levels. Our results highlight the importance of maintaining genetic as well as species diversity to enhance ecosystem resilience in a world of increasing uncertainty.

Animals↗

Cross influences of ozone and sulfate precursor emissions changes on air quality and climate.

Tropospheric O(3) and sulfate both contribute to air pollution and climate forcing. There is a growing realization that air quality and climate change issues are strongly connected. To date, the importance of the coupling between O(3) and sulfate has not been fully appreciated, and thus regulations treat each pollutant separately. We show that emissions of O(3) precursors can dramatically affect regional sulfate air quality and climate forcing. At 2030 in an A1B future, increased O(3) precursor emissions enhance surface sulfate over India and China by up to 20% because of increased levels of OH and gas-phase SO(2) oxidation rates and add up to 20% to the direct sulfate forcing for that region relative to the present day. Hence, O(3) precursors impose an indirect forcing via sulfate, which is more than twice the direct O(3) forcing itself (compare -0.61 vs. +0.35 W/m(2)). Regulatory policy should consider both air quality and climate and should address O(3) and sulfate simultaneously because of the strong interaction between these species.

Air↗

Variation in Ginkgo biloba L. leaf characters across a climatic gradient in China.

Fossil leaves assigned to the genus Ginkgo are increasingly being used to reconstruct Mesozoic and Tertiary environments based on their stomatal and carbon isotopic characteristics. We sought to provide a more secure basis for understanding variations seen in the plant fossil record by determining the natural variability of these properties of sun and shade leaf morphotypes of Ginkgo biloba trees under the present atmospheric CO2 concentration and a range of contemporary climates in three Chinese locations (Lanzhou, Beijing, and Nanjing). Climate had no major effects on leaf stomatal index (proportion of leaf surface cells that are stomata) but did result in more variable stomatal densities. The effects of climate and leaf morphotype on stomatal index were rather conserved (<1%) and much less than the response of trees to recent CO2 increases. Leaf carbon isotope discrimination (delta) was highest for trees in Nanjing, which experience a warm, moist climate, whereas trees in the most arid site (Lanzhou) had the lowest delta values. Interestingly, the variation in delta shown by leaf populations of trees from China and the United Kingdom was very similar to that of fossil Ginkgo cuticles dating to the Mesozoic and Tertiary, which suggests to us that the physiology of leaf carbon uptake and regulation of water loss in Ginkgo has remained highly conserved despite the potential for evolutionary change over millions of years.

Biological Evolution↗