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PubMed2000

Life expectancy gains from cancer prevention strategies for women with breast cancer and BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations.

CONTEXT: Women with BRCA1- or BRCA2-associated breast cancer are at increased risk for contralateral breast cancer and ovarian cancer and therefore may consider secondary cancer prevention strategies, such as prophylactic surgery and tamoxifen therapy. It is not proven to what extent these strategies reduce risk of second cancers in such patients. OBJECTIVE: To examine the effect of tamoxifen therapy, bilateral prophylactic oophorectomy (PO), prophylactic contralateral mastectomy (PCM), and combinations of these strategies on life expectancy for women with unilateral breast cancer and a BRCA1 or BRCA2 gene mutation. DESIGN AND SETTING: Decision analysis using a Markov model. Probabilities for developing contralateral breast cancer and ovarian cancer, dying from these cancers, dying from primary breast cancer, and the reduction in cancer incidence and mortality due to prophylactic surgeries and/or tamoxifen were estimated from published studies. PARTICIPANTS: Hypothetical breast cancer patients with BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations facing decisions about secondary cancer prevention strategies. INTERVENTIONS: Seven strategies, including 5 years of tamoxifen use, PO, PCM, and combinations of these strategies, compared with careful surveillance. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Total and incremental life expectancy (LE) with each intervention strategy. RESULTS: Depending on the assumed penetrance of the BRCA mutation, compared with surveillance alone, 30-year-old early-stage breast cancer patients with BRCA mutations gain in LE 0.4 to 1.3 years from tamoxifen therapy, 0.2 to 1.8 years from PO, and 0.6 to 2.1 years from PCM. The magnitude of these gains is least for women with low-penetrance mutations (assumed contralateral breast cancer risk of 24% and ovarian cancer risk of 6%) and greatest for those with high-penetrance mutations (assumed contralateral breast cancer risk of 65% and ovarian cancer risk of 40%.) Older age and poorer prognosis from primary breast cancer further attenuate these gains. CONCLUSIONS: Interventions to prevent second cancers, particularly PCM, may offer substantial LE gain for young women with BRCA-associated early-stage breast cancer. Estimates of LE gain may help women and their physicians consider the uncertainties, risks, and advantages of these interventions and lead to more informed choices about cancer prevention strategies.

Adult↗
PubMed1999

[Smoking and life expectancy among Danish men and women].

Studies reporting increased mortality in smokers are abundant, but only few have included large numbers of heavily smoking women. Based on three large Danish population studies we calculated median survival in smokers and never-smokers and compared the impact of smoking in men and women. Seventeen thousand six hundred and sixty-nine men and 13,525 women were followed for up to 30 years for all-cause mortality. During follow-up there were 8644 deaths. Large differences in tobacco-exposure between men and women were found, in particular in older birth-cohorts. Despite a smaller accumulated exposure, the impact smoking had on median survival was similar in men and women. Female inhaling heavy smokers (> or = 15 cig./day) lost 9.4 and inhaling light smokers 7.4 years in comparison with female never-smokers. Corresponding loss of life-expectancy in males was 9.2 years and 6.0 years, respectively. In conclusion, this study shows survival prospects in relation to smoking in both men and women in a way that is easily communicated. The results indicate that women who smoke as much as men run a relatively higher risk in terms of reduced life expectancy.

Adult↗
PubMed1992

[Multi-infarct dementia in nursing home patients; more comorbidity and shorter life expectancy than in Alzheimer's disease].

A retrospective analysis of the medical charts of 117 patients (50 men and 67 women) with multi-infarct dementia took place. All patients admitted to the psychogeriatric nursing home 'Joachim en Anna' in Nijmegen between 1980 and 1989 were studied. The aim of the study was to obtain epidemiological information and to investigate the prevalence of comorbid conditions, prognosis and mortality. The results were compared with patients with Alzheimer's disease. The patients remained in the institute for 1.4 years and the mean total duration of the disease was 5.3 years. About twenty-five percent died in the first three months of admission. Life expectation, counted from time of admission, was 6 years shorter in comparison with Dutch mortality tables. Morbidity frequently seen at admission included circulatory system diseases and cerebrovascular accidents. The risk factor hypertension was seen in a smaller percentage of patients than expected. During the stay the diseases most frequently diagnosed were respiratory and urinary tract infections, adverse effects of drugs, constipation and chronic ulcers of the skin. About twenty percent of the patients were struck by a (recurrent) cerebrovascular accident or a transient ischaemic attack. Most patients died of dehydration or bronchopneumonia. There was, apart from the diagnosis of multi-infarct dementia, no single patient aspect that could predict a poor prognosis. Nursing home patients with multi-infarct dementia are clearly different from patients with Alzheimer's disease. Time spent in the nursing home and duration of disease are shorter. They have more comorbid conditions, especially of a cardiovascular nature, and they have a poor life expectation.

Aged↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Assessing life expectancies of institutionalized older persons in Hong Kong.

BACKGROUND: In Hong Kong, it has been projected that, by the year 2010, there will be 0.86 million persons aged 65 or older. The demand for residential care places continues to rise. Information on the survival of older persons will allow better management of care in institutional settings. OBJECTIVE: The Weibull model was developed to predict the 18-month survival of a group of Chinese nursing home residents. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, 590 older residents from four nursing homes with different levels of care were enrolled. The main outcome measure was survival at 18 months. Information on subject demographics, clinical data and disability levels as measured by the Patient Assessment Instrument (PAI) was collected at baseline. Life expectancies were derived from accelerated failure time models. RESULTS: Independent predictors of decreased survival derived from the Weibull model included increased age, male gender, diagnosis of cancer, presence of malnutrition and functional dependence. Significant interaction was observed between male gender and PAI score. The goodness of fit of the model was satisfactory. CONCLUSIONS: From this study, the model for predicting life expectancy in nursing home residents can assist policy makers in planning long-term care. It can also guide clinicians to make more appropriate management decisions for their older patients.

Age Distribution↗
PubMed1997

Serum carcinoembryonic antigen concentration doubling time correlates with tumor biology and life expectancy in patients with recurrent gastrointestinal carcinoma.

OBJECTIVE: To determine if carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) concentration doubling time (DT) can predict the course of disease and characterize tumor biology. DESIGN: Retrospective case series of patients who exhibited a distinct increase in circulating CEA during disease recurrence in the routine postoperative follow-up. SETTING: A tertiary general hospital. PATIENTS: Twenty patients with recurrent gastric carcinoma and 17 patients with recurrent colorectal carcinoma. INTERVENTION: The CEA DT was determined from semilogarithmic plots of CEA concentration time courses. MAIN OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS: The quantitative analyses of the CEA DT as related to various host and tumor characteristics, modes of recurrence, and life expectancy. RESULTS: The mean CEA DTs for gastric and colorectal carcinomas were 229 days and 86 days, respectively. Although there were no significant differences with regard to patient age, tumor size, gross appearance, and histological differentiation, women had shorter CEA DT than did men. Flow cytometric analysis showed that tumors with a higher proportion of cells in S phase (> or = 15%) had significantly shorter CEA DT than those with a lower S-phase fraction (< 15%). There was a significant correlation between the CEA DT and the length of survival after the initial CEA concentration increase in patients with recurrent gastric and colorectal carcinomas. In the multiple regression analysis of patients who had been treated with curative surgery and chemotherapy, CEA DT proved to be a major independent prognostic factor. CONCLUSIONS: Carcinoembryonic antigen DT predicts life expectancy in patients with adenocarcinoma of the gastrointestinal tract. Differences in survival time are closely associated with variations in the biological aggressiveness of individual tumors.

Adult↗
PubMed2006

Peripherality, income inequality, and life expectancy: revisiting the income inequality hypothesis.

BACKGROUND: Recent criticisms of the income inequality and health hypothesis have stressed the lack of consistent significant evidence for the stronger effects of income inequality among rich countries. Despite such criticisms, little attention has been devoted to the income-based criteria underlying the stratification of countries into rich/poor groups and whether trade patterns and world-system role provide an alternative means of stratifying groups. METHODS: To compare income-based and trade-based criteria, 107 countries were grouped into four typologies: (I) high/low income, (II) OECD membership/non-membership, (III) core/non-core, and (IV) non-periphery/periphery. Each typology was tested separately for significant differences in the effects of income inequality between groups. Separate group comparison tests and regression analyses were conducted for each typology using Rodgers (1979) specification of income, income inequality, and life expectancy. Interaction terms were introduced into Rodgers specification to test whether group classification moderated the effects of income inequality on health. RESULTS: Results show that the effects of income inequality are stronger in the periphery than non-periphery (IV) (-0.76 vs -0.23; P < 0.05). An incremental F-test confirmed significant differences in the coefficient subsets between the two groups (F(2,101) = 6.31; P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Cross-national analyses of income inequality and population health have assumed (i) income differences between countries best capture global stratification and (ii) the negative effects of income inequality are stronger in high-income countries. However, present findings emphasize (i) the importance of measuring global stratification according to trading patterns and (ii) the strong, negative effects of income inequality on life expectancy among peripheral populations.

Commerce↗
PubMed1990

[Hyperuricemia--does modern therapy improve life expectancy?].

Today hyperuricaemia and gout are likewise seen in every population of the western industrial world and have been increasing since the fifties. As known from number of studies hyperuricaemia often occurs in connection with hyperlipoproteinaemia, obesity, diabetes mellitus, arterial hypertension and atherosclerosis. Up to now it was not clear whether one disease caused the other. In 1988 Abbot could prove that among men, those afflicted by gout as compared to those without gout experienced a 60% excess of coronary heart disease. Therefore, patients with gout should receive a regular thorough cardiovascular evaluation. Furthermore risk factor levels which predispose to coronary heart disease, arterial hypertension and gout should be reduced. There is a significant positive correlation between the plasma uric acid levels and the prevalence of attacks of gouty arthritis and nephrolithiasis. It is possible to avoid gouty arthritis, tophi and nephrolithiasis with a consequent diet and medical treatment. Unfortunately, many patients interrupt therapy during intervals free of pain. The consequence is that even today the complications of hyperuricaemia cause days of inability to work and to earn one's living, despite of modern therapy. Hyperuricaemia not sufficiently treated reduces the quality of life through attacks of gout, chronic gout and nephrolithiasis as well as life expectancy caused by nephropathy, arterial hypertension and atherosclerosis. This is of special importance because of the frequency of gout and hyperuricaemia in our population. An early diagnosis, a consistent therapy and a thorough monitoring could stop an increase of this disease and prolong life expectancy for those who have gout and the other attendant diseases.

Cause of Death↗
PubMed2006

Disability weights for comorbidity and their influence on health-adjusted life expectancy.

BACKGROUND: Comorbidity complicates estimations of health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) using disease prevalences and disability weights from Burden of Disease studies. Usually, the exact amount of comorbidity is unknown and no disability weights are defined for comorbidity. METHODS: Using data of the Dutch national burden of disease study, the effects of different methods to adjust for comorbidity on HALE calculations are estimated. The default multiplicative adjustment method to define disability weights for comorbidity is compared to HALE estimates without adjustment for comorbidity and to HALE estimates in which the amount of disability in patients with multiple diseases is solely determined by the disease that leads to most disability (the maximum adjustment method). To estimate the amount of comorbidity, independence between diseases is assumed. RESULTS: Compared to the multiplicative adjustment method, the maximum adjustment method lowers HALE estimates by 1.2 years for males and 1.9 years for females. Compared to no adjustment, a multiplicative adjustment lowers HALE estimates by 1.0 years for males and 1.4 years for females. CONCLUSION: The differences in HALE caused by the different adjustment methods demonstrate that adjusting for comorbidity in HALE calculations is an important topic that needs more attention. More empirical research is needed to develop a more general theory as to how comorbidity influences disability.

Journal Article↗
PubMed1991

[150 years of life expectancy of Dutch members of parliament; 1848-1989].

To determinate whether the stressful lifestyle of members of parliament (MP) might lead to excess mortality, as suggested in British Medical Journal in 1989, we investigated the mortality and life expectancy of 1589 members of the Dutch parliament over the period 1848-1989. Total mortality (all causes) for members of parliament who had been in function for at least one year (n = 1472) was compared to that of the general population of the Netherlands, adjusted for age, sex and calendar period. We calculated a standardized mortality ratio (SMR) from beginning of exposure as well as from ten years after entry in order to correct for a healthy cohort effect. The total number of deaths was 986 (863 with follow-up after 10 years after entry) and did not exceed the expected number of deaths based on population mortality rates. We conclude that MPs have no higher death risk than those who elected them, although one might have expected a lower death risk because of their social background.

Female↗
PubMedDate not supplied

A new method for expressing survival and life expectancy in lifetime cost-effectiveness studies that evaluate cancer patients (review).

The methodology of cost-effectiveness studies that use a lifetime perspective is based on the extrapolation to infinity of the survival curves. However, the research in this methodological area is at an initial phase. Hence, adequate techniques for survival curve extrapolation still need to be devised for handling the different clinical settings that can be analysed by cost-effectiveness survival studies. After a brief overview of the two most commonly used extrapolation methods (Markov decision-tree model and Gompertz technique), we describe a new method for expressing lifetime survival in cost-effectiveness studies that evaluate cancer patients. Our method extrapolates to infinity a traditional survival curve by assigning a normal life expectancy to patients (or long-term survivors). In this way, the value of mean lifetime survival (MLS) for the patient cohort under study can be determined using a lifetime perspective. This value can be employed in lifetime cost-effectiveness analyses that compare different forms of intervention for that disease condition. A separate section of our method compares the overall survival pattern of cured and not cured patients with that of a reference healthy population to assess the impact of the disease on life expectancy. As an example of the application of our method, we reanalysed a survival data set reported by Spinolo et al in 1992, that refers to patients with acute leukaemia who relapsed after their first allogeneic bone marrow transplantation and who received a second transplant (n=17, mean age at relapse = 26 years). The use of our extrapolation method provided the following results: MLS for leukaemia patients = 105.9 months per patient or 8.8 years per patient; MLS for the reference cohort of healthy subjects = 583.8 months per patient or 48.6 years per patient. We conclude that the extrapolation technique described herein can be useful to handle lifetime survival data in cost-effectiveness analysis.

Cost-Benefit Analysis↗
PubMed1989

Left-handedness and life expectancy.

Halpern and Coren recently described an association between left-handedness and a lower life expectancy. This finding is not unexpected because left-handedness has been linked to three leading causes of death in our society--alcoholism, smoking, and breast cancer--as well as to several neurological and immune disorders.

Alcoholism↗
PubMed2001

[Case statistics and life expectancy].

The trial to find connections between the frequency of cases in general medicine and life expectancy of the population succeeded, concerning superficial pyogenic infections by meta-analysing cases-statistics 1944-1996. More could be found by special, prospective, well-planned, comparable statistics of long duration, although it is unlikely that such expensive and difficult investigations will ever be made.

Austria↗
PubMedDate not supplied

The late effects of selected immunosuppressants on immunocompetence, disease incidence, and mean life-span. III. Disease incidence and life expectancy.

The effect of various immunosuppressive treatments on mean life-span and disease incidence have been studied. Significant life shortening was seen only in mice which recieved X-irradiation early in life and can be ascribed primarily to an increased incidence of certain malignancies. Marginal life shortening was seen in cyclophosphamide-treated animals, however, survival patterns between those and control animals did not differ until 30 months of age and the magnitude of life-shortening never approached that seen in X-irradiated animals. Thymectomy, splenectomy or cortisone treatment did not alter survival. All immunosuppressive treatments enhanced mortality due to non-neoplastic diseases, however, only a small percentage of animals die with these disease entities. With the exception of cortisone all immunosuppressive treatments increased the incidence of neoplastic disease. However, their effects on various neoplastic processes were variable and unpredictable. Four primary patterns in terms of relative immune competence, disease incidence and life expectancy were seen. Thus, immunodepression may of may not correlate with increased disease incidence, which in turn may or may not have a life-shortening effect. These findings are discussed in terms of the marked reduction of both humoral and cell-mediated immunity normally seen in aged mice and the significance of postulated immune surveillance mechanisms to survival.

Age Factors↗
PubMed1987

Increase in life expectancy at birth in Japan: some implications for variable patterns of decrease in mortality.

The characteristics of the increase in life expectancy at birth (eo) in Japan were analyzed using the life tables of developed countries in which the values of eo were almost the same. When the decrease in age-specific probability of dying (qx) and its contribution to total gain in eo in Japan were compared to those of other developed countries, the decline in qx in prime, middle and old age groups accounts for much of the change; the decrease in this variable for males aged 50 years and over accounted for 35% of the recent increase in eo. Well-organized medical care and public services are discussed in relation to this unique and unusually rapid increase in eo for the Japanese population.

Age Factors↗
PubMed1999

Low risk-factor profile and long-term cardiovascular and noncardiovascular mortality and life expectancy: findings for 5 large cohorts of young adult and middle-aged men and women.

CONTEXT: Three major coronary risk factors-serum cholesterol level, blood pressure, and smoking-increase incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD) and related end points. In previous investigations, risks for low-risk reference groups were estimated statistically because samples contained too few such people to measure risk. OBJECTIVE: To measure long-term mortality rates for individuals with favorable levels for all 3 major risk factors, compared with others. DESIGN: Two prospective studies, involving 5 cohorts based on age and sex, that enrolled persons with a range of risk factors. Low risk was defined as serum cholesterol level less than 5.17 mmol/L (<200 mg/dL), blood pressure less than orequal to 120/80 mm Hg, and no current cigarette smoking. All persons with a history of diabetes, myocardial infarction (MI), or, in 3 of 5 cohorts, electrocardiogram (ECG) abnormalities, were excluded. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: In 18 US cities, a total of 72144 men aged 35 through 39 years and 270671 men aged 40 through 57 years screened (1973-1975) for the Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial (MRFIT); in Chicago, a total of 10025 men aged 18 through 39 years, 7490 men aged 40 through 59 years, and 6229 women aged 40 through 59 years screened (1967-1973) for the Chicago Heart Association Detection Project in Industry (CHA) (N = 366559). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cause-specific mortality during 16 (MRFIT) and 22 (CHA) years, relative risks (RRs) of death, and estimated greater life expectancy, comparing low-risk subcohorts vs others by age strata. RESULTS: Low-risk persons comprised only 4.8% to 9.9% of the cohorts. All 5 low-risk groups experienced significantly and markedly lower CHD and cardiovascular disease death rates than those who had elevated cholesterol level, or blood pressure, or smoked. For example, age-adjusted RRs of CHD mortality ranged from 0.08 for CHA men aged 18 to 39 years to 0.23 for CHA men aged 40 through 59 years. The age-adjusted relative risks (RRs) for all cardiovascular disease mortality ranged from 0.15 for MRFIT men aged 35 through 39 years to 0.28 for CHA men aged 40 through 59 years. The age-adjusted RR for all-cause mortality rate ranged from 0.42 for CHA men aged 40 through 59 years to 0.60 for CHA women aged 40 through 59 years. Estimated greater life expectancy for low-risk groups ranged from 5.8 years for CHA women aged 40 through 59 years to 9.5 years for CHA men aged 18 through 39 years. CONCLUSIONS: Based on these very large cohort studies, for individuals with favorable levels of cholesterol and blood pressure who do not smoke and do not have diabetes, MI, or ECG abnormalities, long-term mortality is much lower and longevity is much greater. A substantial increase in the proportion of the population at lifetime low risk could contribute decisively to ending the CHD epidemic.

Adult↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Contribution of cause-specific mortality to changing sex differences in life expectancy: seven nations case study.

During the last two decades some industrialized nations witnessed varying degrees of constriction in their sex gaps in overall life expectancy. We investigate this development by paying particular attention to the contributions of major causes of death to the change in the difference between 1970 and 1990. The analysis is based on the experiences of seven nations: Australia, United States, Sweden, England and Wales, Portugal, Hungary, and Japan. In the first four countries the gap has been narrowing during the last twenty years; in Hungary and Japan, the difference remains substantial and continues to expand; in Portugal the situation is characterized by a slowdown in the amount by which the sex gap is expanding over time. We apply decomposition analysis to answer the following questions: (1) What is the relative contribution of major causes of death to sex differences in average length of life within broad age categories? (2) How do the contributions of age and cause of death vary across time to either widen or narrow the sex gap in survival? (3) How do the patterns of cause contribution vary across societies?

Adolescent↗