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PubMed1985

Canberra--the demographic experiment.

"The aims of this paper are to describe the demographic outcome of the early patterns of growth of...[Canberra, Australia], and to illustrate the way in which refinements in the measurement of demographic events can provide a more accurate picture of the true situation than occurs from crude measures. Much of the discussion is based on a comparison of the demographic situation in the ACT [Australian Capital Territory] with that in the nearest State capital city, Sydney, or with total Australia." Information is included on age structure, mobility, socioeconomic status, fertility, divorce, female labor force participation, and child care. "The ACT population has always been considered to be different from that of the other capital cities and from the overall population of Australia, and in many respects this is true. At the same time, however, recent data suggest that the ACT population profile is now converging towards the Australian experience."

Age Distribution↗
PubMed1992

How surveys are changing at the U.S. Bureau of the Census.

"This article describes the survey activities of the U.S. Census Bureau and recent efforts by the bureau to move toward a more fully automated environment....[It] focuses on four areas in which the Census Bureau is changing its approach to surveys: (1) redesigning the questionnaire for the Current Population Survey to better reflect current labor force conditions; (2) redesigning the same questionnaire to gain advantages from computer-assisted interviewing; (3) redesigning the samples for household surveys to be used during the next decade, a task undertaken after every decennial census; and (4) progress in changing to a computer-assisted survey information collection (CASIC) system and developing a data management network for all Census Bureau surveys."

Americas↗
PubMed1990

Guests or immigrants? Contradiction and change in the German immigration policy debate since the recruitment stop.

The authors review major points in the policy debate over immigration in West Germany since the 1973 recruitment stop legislation. Special emphasis is placed on the labor force effects of migration to West Germany and their impact on migration policy. The authors find that "government immigration policy since 1973 has embraced three contradictory goals: reduce the influx of foreigners, integrate those who intend to settle in West Germany, and encourage the return of migrants who are inclined to leave. The internal contradictions between these policy goals have prevented them from being fulfilled and thereby have generated considerable frustration."

Demography↗
PubMed1996

[Rejoining the labor market once child-care leave is over].

"The author of the study analyses, from the aspects of a particular group, the situation of [women in the labor force] in Hungary. In sample surveys carried out in the first quarter of 1993 and 1995, mothers on leave for child-care were interviewed about their intentions...to renew their gainful activities. Of some 25 thousand households 1,450 and 1,491 women on leave for child-care answered the questions in 1993 and 1995, respectively.... The results indicate...that chances of women [rejoining] the labour market depend on the sector and regional location of their previous workplace, on their craft qualification etc." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Behavior↗
PubMed1989

The work motivations of mothers with preschool children.

This article provides a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the motivations for employment among a sample of 166 Sydney mothers, each of whom had at least 1 preschool-aged child. Mothers with high and moderate work attachment indicated a multiplicity of motives, of both an extrinsic (financial) and intrinsic (personal satisfaction, sense of achievement) nature. In contrast, the majority of women with low work attachment cited extreme financial need as the only possible reason that would impel them to enter the labor force. When asked which was, or would be, their most important reason for working, women with high work attachment endorsed more nonfinancial than financial reasons, women with moderate work attachment were about equally likely to give either reason, and women with low work attachment predominantly gave financial reasons. Husbands' perceptions of the reasons their wives were working, or would work, showed some, but not complete, agreement with those of their wives.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1986

The shifting social and economic tides of black America, 1950-1980.

"This article examines significant demographic trends that illustrate the advances of many black Americans from 1954 to 1984. We also examine trends which indicate deterioration in the socioeconomic circumstances and life chances of a significant portion of the black population. The two competing trends in the status of black Americans (at one extreme an emerging black elite, at the other a growing black underclass) have been central in provocative debates about economics and race over the past decade. This article locates the debate in historical context, summarizing the work of early theorists on this issue." The authors use U.S. census data "to document changes from 1950-1980 in occupational distribution, labor force participation, educational attainment, income and earnings, fertility and mortality rates, and family organizational patterns for blacks and whites. Using the political economy perspective, we argue that race and economic status are inexorably linked in this society. Shifts in the society's economic base coupled with historical (and contemporary) patterns of racial oppression explain the disproportionate concentration of blacks in the underclass."

Black or African American↗
PubMed1983

Cohort size effects and migration.

"This article explores whether changes in the size of [U.S.] cohorts entering the labor force affect the propensity to migrate and the socioeconomic circumstances of migrants at destination. The flow of young in-migrants to large SMSAs declined during the 1965-76 period, but the relative socioeconomic standing of migrants at destination was unaffected by either cohort size or regional differentials in economic growth. It is suggested that a significant reduction in the volume of migration among members of the baby boom cohort was the primary adjustment mechanism, hence reducing the need for degrading the opportunities available to migrants."

Americas↗
PubMed1998

Gender differences in the occupational status of undocumented immigrants in the United States: experience before and after legalization.

"This article examines the incorporation of a national sample of undocumented immigrants both before and after they applied to legalize their status under the provisions of the [U.S.] Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986 (IRCA). Data from the 1989 and 1992 Legalized Population Surveys (LPS-1 and LPS-2) are used. These surveys provide labor force and occupational data for three critical reference periods: as newly arrived undocumented immigrants, as experienced undocumented immigrants, and as documented immigrants.... The overall upward mobility of both men and women between first job and the occupation held at time of application for legalization continued after legalization. On average, men also continued to report higher status jobs than women, although women did somewhat better after their status was legalized." This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1997 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America.

Americas↗
PubMedDate not supplied

The socioeconomic consequences of teenage childbearing: findings from a natural experiment.

A study based on census data from 1970 and 1980 examines the socioeconomic effects of unplanned teenage childbearing by comparing teenage mothers whose first birth was to twins with those whose first birth was to a single infant. Among black women, an unplanned teenage birth--represented by the secondborn twin--results in significantly lower rates of high school graduation and labor-force participation and significantly higher rates of poverty and welfare recipiency. Ten years after giving birth, black women who have an unplanned child are also significantly less likely than women who have not to be currently married, but are not less likely to have ever been married. Like black women, white women who have an unplanned teenage birth have significantly higher rates of poverty and welfare recipiency; they also have significantly lower family earnings and household income.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1996

Income prospects and age-at-marriage.

"This paper provides an empirical investigation of a theoretical model of the marriage market. In the model, women are valued more for their ability to bear children and men are valued more for the ability to make money. Men cannot reveal their labor market ability to potential spouses until they enter the labor force. At the same time, the relevant information for evaluating females as spouses is revealed at a younger age. The model predicts that the income of males will be positively associated with age-at-first-marriage. We find empirical support for the model [based on U.S. data]. However, we also find the association between male earnings and age-at-first-marriage becomes negative for those who married after age 30, which was not predicted by the model. Consistent with the model, we do not find a strong relationship between earnings and age-at-first-marriage among females."

Americas↗
PubMed1996

[Participation rates for those aged 25 to 60: age and generation effects].

Labor force participation for those aged 25 to 60 in France is analyzed over the period 1975 to 1994. "Over these two decades, female participation rates rose sharply, particularly among the young and intermediate age groups and the least qualified. At the same time, the overall male participation rate dropped slightly due mainly to more frequent retirement at the end of working life and among the least qualified. An econometric analysis of female participation rates shows, in contrast to the men, an extensive change in working patterns between generations. The sharp rise in participation rates for the generations born from the 1930s to the 1960s has only been slightly tempered by the relative economic downturn posted after 1977." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND GER AND SPA)

Age Factors↗
PubMed1982

Urbanization, interregional accessibility, and the decision to migrate.

Trends in population and labor force growth in nonmetropolitan areas of the United States during the 1970s are analyzed. The authors investigate the relationships among migration behavior, urban accessibility, and externalities such as congestion that are associated with urban residence. "A model of the migration decision [is examined] that incorporates in an explicit fashion this proximity-centrality relationship. Estimates of the model are also discussed, with specific attention given to the relationship under question. In addition, the age selectivity of the relationship [is] examined. Insights on the nonmetropolitan reversal drawn from the model estimates are discussed in a third section, followed by concluding remarks."

Age Factors↗
PubMed1989

Women, population and development trends since 1984.

This paper review progress over the past 5 years with respect to the 6 recommendations adopted at the International Conference on Population 1984, which specifically address the situation of women. They include: 1) integrating women into development, 2) women's economic participation, 3) education, training, and employment, 4) raising the age at marriage, 5) the active involvement of men in all areas of family responsibility, and 6) the ratification of the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women. Several important areas potentially relevant to population issues which were omitted from the Conference recommendations are identified and discussed--namely, the situation of women (in particular, older women, women who are the sole supporters of families, and women and migration) and the situation of women in times of severe economic adversity. Finally, progress made with respect to data on women is highlighted, and caution is advised with respect to continued calls for new data. In contrast to the Nairobi Forward-Looking Strategies for the Advancement of Women, the recommendations are noted for implying an almost unresolvable conflict between women's biological and economic roles. However, it is pointed out that the goals of the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women for full equality of men and women would require that the same choices be available to both sexes with respect to labor force participation. While it is too soon to have a clear perspective on the pace and direction of change during the past 5 years, the author finds it impossible to be optimistic about current trends because, in too many areas, progress regarding women has either stagnated or moved into reverse gear. The disappointing record is partially attributed to the tendency for policy makers to see the promotion of economic growth through sound economic policy and advancing the status of women as competing rather than complementary goals.

Adult↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Population dynamics and rural poverty.

An overview of the relationship between demographic factors and rural poverty in developing countries is presented. The author examines both the micro- and macro-level perspectives of this relationship and the determinants and consequences of population growth. The author notes the prospects for a rapid increase in the rural labor force and considers its implications for the agricultural production structure and the need for institutional change. Consideration is also given to the continuing demand for high fertility at the family level and the role of infant and child mortality in the poverty cycle. "The paper concludes by drawing attention to the need for developing the mechanism for reconciliation of social and individual optima with respect to family size and population growth." The need for rural development projects that take demographic factors into account is stressed as is the need for effective population programs. (summary in FRE, ITA)

Agriculture↗
PubMed1985

The demographics of unfunded pensions.

The performance of pay-as-you-go old-age insurance under different demographic conditions can be estimated from a metric consisting of the implicit rate of return to successive cohorts. The author shows a positive return for the prospective population over the next few years, but for cohorts born after the end of the century returns will become sharply negative. A decline in returns is typical of pay-as-you-go schemes as they mature, and a change to negative returns is typical in particular as the birth rate falls under fixed economic conditions. The return can be kept positive by greatly increased fertility or immigration. Taking labor-force participation rates into account, and supposing entitlement independent of contribution, gives much larger negative rates of return, however. The main calculations considered here are for schemes with a constant pension. If the contribution rather than the pension is kept constant then the disparities between cohorts with respect to their returns are smaller, and although the negative returns for future generations then set in earlier they are smaller. The conclusions of the paper are broadly applicable to any population that showed a baby boom after World War II and replacement-level or lower fertility subsequently.

Americas↗
PubMed1995

Toward a general analysis of endogenous Easterlin cycles.

Easterlin believed that there were two features associated with the birth cycles he observed: the cycles were related to the labor market, and they might be self-generating. This paper tries to set up a model that contains both of these two features. The authors suppose that the welfare of various age-specific cohorts are determined by their respective marginal productivity, and that the underlying technology which puts together labor force of various age-specific cohorts can be characterized by a general production function. Under these weak assumptions, they show that the well-analyzed cohort and period models along the lines of Lee (1974) are restricted versions of the general setting. Given that both the cohort model and the period model were rejected by statistical tests, the authors adopt the coefficient values obtained from the estimation of the unrestricted version to perform the bifurcation analysis. They go beyond the previous study which focused upon the possible existence of limit cycles, and show that the US fertility limit cycle solution is unstable. Therefore the population trajectory will never converge to that limit cycle.

Americas↗
PubMed1996

[Work after age 55: recent trends and forecast elements].

Labor force participation in France of those aged over 55 years is analyzed in this article. "The drop in the participation rate in later years is a longterm trend found in most developed countries. It is a common method for reducing working hours over an entire life cycle and has been made possible by the growth in productivity and the development of pension schemes. However, the phenomenon grew in the mid-1970s, especially in France, due to the growth in early retirement and end-of-career unemployment and also the lowering of the legal retirement age. The participation rate in France is now very low after sixty and is one of the lowest in Europe for the 55-to-59-year-old age bracket." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND GER AND SPA)

Age Factors↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Gender, education, and fertility: a cross-national analysis of Sub-Saharan African nations.

According to the demographic transition theory and the wealth flows model, it is expected that fertility will decline with socioeconomic development, manifested in part through increasingly greater proportions of the population with formal education. Since their independence in the 1960s, most sub-Saharan African nations have experienced rapid changes in educational levels. However, recent estimates indicate that high levels of fertility are being maintained as reflected in the high rates of population increase of approximately 3%/year. Controlling for socioeconomic development as measured by per capita energy consumption and percentage of labor force in agriculture, this article examines the relationship between education and fertility for men and women in 37 sub-Saharan nations. Results indicate that primary school enrollment in 1960 and 1980 for both males and females had a weak negative and nonsignificant relationship with the total fertility rate 15-30 years later. Secondary school enrollment in 1960 for both males and females had weak relationships with the total fertility rate. However, secondary school enrollment for males in 1980 had a significant negative effect on the total fertility rate 10-25 years later. Implications are discussed.

Africa↗