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Climate, racial category, and body proportions in the U.S.

In 1955, Newman and Munro reported correlations between physical characteristics and climate in a white male U.S. Army sample. For example, the body weight-to-mean annual temperature correlation was -0.460. Because the men descended from relatively recent immigrants to North America, physical clines implicitly derived from differential lifetime growth rather than from natural selection. Consequently, both causation and adaptive function of Bergmann's and Allen's biogeographic rules in humans were called into question. Analysis of male and female data from the 1988 U.S. Army anthropometric survey offers new insights to the 1955 study findings. Using state means of the male subsample identifying themselves as white, as did Newman and Munro, no significant correlations were found between climatic variables and height, weight, BMI, or other body proportions. With individual data rather than state mean values, neither white male nor white female samples showed morphology to climate correlations. Relationships seen in the earlier white sample have disappeared, possibly due to a more uniform growth environment and mobility in the U.S. Black males and females showed some body trait to climate correlations but only at r values of around 0.10. Using state means from the combined sample (racial identification ignored), strong correlations are seen. As examples, mean annual temperature correlates to male relative sitting height at r = -0.634 and to female relative forearm length at r = 0.645. However, these values are evidently spurious, being products of the higher percentages of whites enlisting from colder areas of the U.S.

Anthropometry↗

Hunter-gatherer postcranial robusticity relative to patterns of mobility, climatic adaptation, and selection for tissue economy.

Human skeletal robusticity is influenced by a number of factors, including habitual behavior, climate, and physique. Conflicting evidence as to the relative importance of these factors complicates our ability to interpret variation in robusticity in the past. It remains unclear how the pattern of robusticity in the skeleton relates to adaptive constraints on skeletal morphology. This study investigates variation in robusticity in claviculae, humeri, ulnae, femora, and tibiae among human foragers, relative to climate and habitual behavior. Cross-sectional geometric properties of the diaphyses are compared among hunter-gatherers from southern Africa (n = 83), the Andaman Islands (n = 32), Tierra del Fuego (n = 34), and the Great Lakes region (n = 15). The robusticity of both proximal and distal limb segments correlates negatively with climate and positively with patterns of terrestrial and marine mobility among these groups. However, the relative correspondence between robusticity and these factors varies throughout the body. In the lower limb, partial correlations between polar second moment of area (J(0.73)) and climate decrease from proximal to distal section locations, while this relationship increases from proximal to distal in the upper limb. Patterns of correlation between robusticity and mobility, either terrestrial or marine, generally increase from proximal to distal in the lower and upper limbs, respectively. This suggests that there may be a stronger relationship between observed patterns of diaphyseal hypertrophy and behavioral differences between populations in distal elements. Despite this trend, strength circularity indices at the femoral midshaft show the strongest correspondence with terrestrial mobility, particularly among males.

Adaptation, Physiological↗

The influence of climatic conditions on the heat balance of the human body.

The structure of heat exchange between the human body and its surroundings has been studied according to M.I. Budyko's model. Comparative measurements were carried out in the Polish Lakeland (maritime, temperate warm climate), in Central Mongolia (continental, temperate cool climate), and in the Kara Kum desert (dry subtropical climate). The results deal with the summer and early autumn seasons. The calculations indicate that the quantitative apportionment of various forms of heat exchange depend on specific weather conditions, which are typical for the distinguished climatic zones.

Body Temperature Regulation↗

[Climate and air pollution].

Climate and air pollution are closely related. On the one hand, the climate is more and more influenced, locally as well as globally, by the tremendous concentration of pollutants in our atmosphere. Certain elements of the climate are, on the other hand, directly responsible for the process of dilution and dispersion of pollution emission. Of particular importance is the phenomen of ventilation and inversion. The significance of knowing the regional climatic peculiarities is presented by ways of a smallspace-example of the ventilation existing at the valley of river Aare and of the frequency of inversion existing at the Aare-trench situated north of Berne. Such knowledge should increasingly be used to influence regional planning, to assist in the determination of the position of any important source of pollution and should help to determine the selection of suitable living and recreation areas. Unfavorable meteorological-climatological conditions could aggravate a situation whereby harmless concentrations of pollutants could lead locally to critical proportions. For the better understanding of the meteorological and climatological processes within the lowest 500 m-level of our atmosphere, an increased effort of research should be considered in this connection. Through the use of improved data processing in connection with more closely meshed measuring networks, and of automatic recording facilities, as well as through the increased use of physical models, the problem of immission in our heavily valleyed country could be investigated more thoroughly.

Air Pollution↗

Drug formulations intended for the global market should be tested for stability under tropical climatic conditions.

RATIONALE OBJECTIVE: The quality of drugs imported into developing countries having a tropical climate may be adversely affected if their formulations have not been optimized for stability under these conditions. The present study investigated the influence of tropical climate conditions (class IV: 40 degrees C, 75% relative humidity) on the drug content, in vitro dissolution and oral bioavailability of different formulations of two essential drugs marketed in Tanzania: diclofenac sodium and ciprofloxacin tablets. METHODS: Before and after 3 and 6 months storage under class IV conditions the drug content and in vitro dissolution were evaluated using United States Pharmacopoeia (USP) 24 methods. Following a randomized four-period cross-over study, the pharmacokinetic parameters of drug formulations stored for 3 months under class IV conditions were compared with those stored at ambient conditions. RESULTS: Drug content and drug release from all tested ciprofloxacin formulations were within USP-24 requirements and remained stable during storage at simulated tropical conditions. Oral bioavailability was also not influenced by tropical conditions. The dissolution rate of two diclofenac formulations (Diclo 50 manufactured by Camden and Dicloflame 50 manufactured by Intas) reduced significantly during storage under class IV conditions. After oral administration Camden tablets stored for 3 months under class IV conditions showed a reduction in C(max) (90% CI of C(max) ratio: 0.59 - 0.76). This reduction was smaller than expected based on the in vitro tests. CONCLUSIONS: Some drug formulations imported into Tanzania are not optimized for stability in a tropical climate. Manufacturers and regulatory authorities should pay more attention to the WHO recommendations for testing the stability of drugs under tropical climate conditions. Efforts should be made to improve the in vitro tests to better predict the bioavailability.

Administration, Oral↗

Influence of geoengineered climate on the terrestrial biosphere.

Various geoengineering schemes have been proposed to counteract anthropogenically induced climate change. In a previous study, it was suggested that a 1.8% reduction in solar radiation incident on the Earth's surface could noticeably reduce regional and seasonal climate change from increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). However, the response of the terrestrial biosphere to reduced solar radiation in a CO2-rich climate was not investigated. In this study, we hypothesized that a reduction in incident solar radiation in a Doubled CO2 atmosphere will diminish the net primary productivity (NPP) of terrestrial ecosystems, potentially accelerating the accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere. We used a dynamic global ecosystem model, the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS), to investigate this hypothesis in an unperturbed climatology. While this simplified modeling framework effectively separated the influence of CO2 and sunlight on the terrestrial biosphere, it did not consider the complex feedbacks within the Earth's climate system. Our analysis indicated that compared to a Doubled CO2 scenario, reduction in incident solar radiation by 1.8% in a double CO2 world will have negligible impact on the NPP of terrestrial ecosystems. There were, however, spatial variations in the response of NPP-engineered solar radiation. While productivity decreased by less than 2% in the tropical and boreal forests as hypothesized, it increased by a similar percentage in the temperate deciduous forests and grasslands. This increase in productivity was attributed to an approximately 1% reduction in evapotranspiration in the Geoengineered scenario relative to the Doubled CO2 scenario. Our initial hypothesis was rejected because of unanticipated effects of engineered solar radiation on the hydrologic cycle. However, any geoengineering approaches that reduce incident solar radiation need to be thoroughly analyzed in view of the implications on ecosystem productivity and the hydrologic cycle.

Carbon Dioxide↗

Food security in the face of climate change, population growth, and resource constraints: implications for Bangladesh.

Ensuring food security has been one of the major national priorities of Bangladesh since its independence in 1971. Now, this national priority is facing new challenges from the possible impacts of climate change in addition to the already existing threats from rapid population growth, declining availability of cultivable land, and inadequate access to water in the dry season. In this backdrop, this paper has examined the nature and magnitude of these threats for the benchmark years of 2030 and 2050. It has been shown that the overall impact of climate change on the production of food grains in Bangladesh would probably be small in 2030. This is due to the strong positive impact of CO2 fertilization that would compensate for the negative impacts of higher temperature and sea level rise. In 2050, the negative impacts of climate change might become noticeable: production of rice and wheat might drop by 8% and 32%, respectively. However, rice would be less affected by climate change compared to wheat, which is more sensitive to a change in temperature. Based on the population projections and analysis of future agronomic innovations, this study further shows that the availability of cultivable land alone would not be a constraint for achieving food self-sufficiency, provided that the productivity of rice and wheat grows at a rate of 10% or more per decade. However, the situation would be more critical in terms of water availability. If the dry season water availability does not decline from the 1990 level of about 100 Bm3, there would be just enough water in 2030 for meeting both the agricultural and nonagricultural needs. In 2050, the demand for irrigation water to maintain food self-sufficiency would be about 40% to 50% of the dry season water availability. Meeting such a high agricultural water demand might cause significant negative impacts on the domestic and commercial water supply, fisheries, ecosystems, navigation, and salinity management.

Agriculture↗

Relevance of individual characteristics for human heat stress response is dependent on exercise intensity and climate type.

Multiple heterogeneous groups of subjects (both sexes and a wide range of maximal oxygen uptake VO2max, body mass, body surface area (AD),% body fat, and AD/mass coefficient) exercised on a cycle ergometer at a relative (%VO2max, REL) or an absolute (60 W) exercise intensity in a cool (CO 21 degrees C, 50% relative humidity), warm humid (WH 35 degrees C, 80%) and a hot dry (HD 45 degrees C, 20%) environment. Rectal temperature (Tre) responses were analysed for the influence of the individual's characteristics, environment and exercise intensity. Exposures consisted of 30-min rest, followed by 60-min exercise. The Tre was negatively correlated with mass in all conditions. Body mass acted as a passive heat sink in all the conditions tested. While negatively correlated with VO2max and VO2max per kilogram body mass in most climates, Tre was positively correlated with VO2max and VO2max per kilogram body mass in the WH/REL condition. Thus, when evaporative heat loss was limited as in WH, the higher heat production of the fitter subjects in the REL trials determined Tre and not the greater efficiency for heat loss associated with high VO2max. Body fatness significantly affected Tre only in the CO condition, where, with low skin blood flows (measured as increases in forearm blood flow), the insulative effect of fat was pronounced. In the warmer environments, high skin blood flows offset the resistance offered by peripheral adipose tissue. Contrary to other studies, Tre was positively correlated with AD/mass coefficient for all conditions tested. For both exercise types used, being big (a high heat loss area and heat capacity) was apparently more beneficial from a heat strain standpoint than having a favourable AD/mass coefficient (high in small subjects). The total amount of variance in Tre responses which could be attributed to individual characteristics was dependent on the climate and the type of exercise. Though substantial for absolute exercise intensities (52%-58%) the variance explained in Tre differed markedly for relative intensities: 72% for the WH climate with its limited evaporative capacity, and only 10%-26% for the HD and CO climates. The results showed that individual characteristics play a significant role in determining the responses of body core temperature in all conditions tested, but their contribution was low for relative exercise intensities when evaporative heat loss was not restricted. This study demonstrated that effects of individual characteristics on human responses to heat stress cannot be interpreted without taking into consideration both the heat transfer properties of the environment and the metabolic heat production resulting from the exercise type and intensity chosen. Their impact varies substantially among conditions.

Adipose Tissue↗

Climate, body condition and spleen size in birds.

Climatic conditions may impact on the body condition of animals and thereby affect their survival prospects. However, climate may also impact directly on the survival prospects of animals by affecting the size of immune defence organs that are used for defence against parasites. We used a large long-term database on body condition and size of the spleen in birds to test for immediate and delayed relationships between climatic conditions as indexed by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and body condition and spleen mass, respectively. Across 14 species of birds, spleen mass was significantly positively correlated with the NAO index, while the delayed effect of NAO on spleen mass was not significant. Spleen mass was positively related to body condition, but body condition did not depend significantly on NAO or delayed NAO effects. Bird species with a strong positive effect of NAO on spleen mass tended to have small spleens for their body size, while species with a strong negative effect of NAO on spleen mass tended to have relatively large spleens. Since bird species with relatively large spleen have been shown to suffer more from the negative effects of parasites, we can infer that the effects of climate as indexed by NAO on the size of the spleen depends on the importance of parasite-mediated natural selection.

Adaptation, Physiological↗

Avian reproductive failure in response to an extreme climatic event.

Recently, climate change research has emphasized the potential increase in the frequency and severity of climatic extremes. We compared the reproductive effort and output among four species of passerine birds in coastal southern California, USA, a semi-arid region, during a normal precipitation year (2001) and the driest year in a 150-year climate record (2002). Both reproductive effort and output differed dramatically between years. Mean reproductive output among the four species was 2.37 fledglings/pair in 2001 and 88.4% of all pairs observed attempted at least one nest. The birds attempted a mean of 1.44 nests per pair and were successful in 47.7% of those attempts. In 2002, only 6.7% of the pairs even attempted a nest and only 1.8% were successful, for a total output of 0.07 fledglings per pair. The abundance of suitable arthropod prey items in the environment was also much lower in 2002, suggesting that low food availability was the proximal cause of the reproductive failure. The data for one of these species, the rufous-crowned sparrow (Aimophila ruficeps), were combined with reproductive and rainfall data from a previous 3-year study (1997-1999) in the same sites. The combined data sets suggest that the response of reproduction to rainfall variation is linear, and that the low end of the precipitation range brings the population near reproductive failure. Any change in climate that would increase the frequency of extreme dry conditions would likely endanger populations of these species.

Acclimatization↗

Continuous and discrete extreme climatic events affecting the dynamics of a high-arctic reindeer population.

Climate at northern latitudes are currently changing both with regard to the mean and the temporal variability at any given site, increasing the frequency of extreme events such as cold and warm spells. Here we use a conceptually new modelling approach with two different dynamic terms of the climatic effects on a Svalbard reindeer population (the Brøggerhalvøya population) which underwent an extreme icing event ("locked pastures") with 80% reduction in population size during one winter (1993/94). One term captures the continuous and linear effect depending upon the Arctic Oscillation and another the discrete (rare) "event" process. The introduction of an "event" parameter describing the discrete extreme winter resulted in a more parsimonious model. Such an approach may be useful in strongly age-structured ungulate populations, with young and very old individuals being particularly prone to mortality factors during adverse conditions (resulting in a population structure that differs before and after extreme climatic events). A simulation study demonstrates that our approach is able to properly detect the ecological effects of such extreme climate events.

Animals↗

Explaining bank vole cycles in southern Norway 1980-2004 from bilberry reports 1932-1977 and climate.

Correlations between mast fruiting of bilberry Vaccinium myrtillus and peak levels of Clethrionomys-voles have been reported from both Norway and Finland, but there has been a discussion whether this is a bottom-up or a top-down relationship. In a multiple regression model, 65% of the variation in a bilberry production index calculated from game reports from southern Norway 1932-1977 could be explained by the berry index of the two preceding years and climate factors acting during key stages of the flowering cycle. High vole populations in previous years did not contribute to explain the fluctuation in berry production. I used the selected model and climate data to predict bilberry production for the period 1978-2004. Predicted berry indices of the current and previous year explained 38% and the total amount of precipitation in May-June explained 16% of the variation in a log-transformed snap-trapping index of bank vole Clethrionomys glareolus 1980-2004. The vole index was not related to any of the climate variables used to predict berry production. This pattern supports the hypothesis that vole cycles are generated by changes in plant chemistry due to climate-synchronized mast fruiting.

Animals↗

Climate change has only a minor impact on nutrient resorption parameters in a high-latitude peatland.

Nutrient resorption from senescing plant tissues is an important determinant of the fitness of plant populations in nutrient-poor ecosystems, because it makes plants less dependent on current nutrient uptake. Moreover, it can have significant "afterlife" effects through its impact on litter chemistry and litter decomposability. Little is known about the effects of climate change on nutrient resorption. We studied the effects of climate change treatments (including winter snow addition, and spring and/or summer warming) on nutrient resorption of four dominant species in a nutrient-poor subarctic peatland. These species were Betula nana (woody deciduous), Vaccinium uliginosum (woody deciduous), Calamagrostis lapponica (graminoid) and Rubus chamaemorus (forb). After five years of treatments both mature and senesced leaf N concentrations showed a small but significant overall reduction in response to the climate treatments. However, the effects were species-specific. For example, in the controls the N concentration in senesced leaves of Calamagrostis (3.0+/-0.2 mg N g(-1)) was about four times lower than for Rubus (11.2+/-0.2 mg N g(-1)). There were no significant treatment effects on N resorption efficiency (% of the N pool in mature leaves that is resorbed during senescence). The nitrogen resorption efficiency of Calamagrostis (about 80%) was higher than in the other three species (about 60%). Thus, climate change has only a minor impact on nutrient resorption parameters. However, given the substantial interspecific differences in these parameters, substantial changes in plant-soil feedbacks may be expected as a result of the observed changes in the species composition of high-latitude vegetation. These changes are species-specific and thus difficult to predict.

Analysis of Variance↗

The influence of climate variability on numbers of three waterbird species in Western Port, Victoria, 1973-2002.

Seasonal and annual movements of Australian waterbirds are generally more complex than those of their Northern Hemisphere counterparts, and long-term data are needed to understand their relationships with climatic variables. This paper explores a long-term (1973-2002) set of waterbird counts from coastal Victoria and relates them to climatic data at local and continental scales. Three species (Black Swan Cygnus atratus, White-faced Heron Egretta novaehollandiae and Grey Teal Anas gracilis) were chosen for this analysis. Black Swans have large local breeding populations near the study region; White-faced Herons have smaller local breeding populations and Grey Teal breed extensively in ephemeral inland floodplains, such as those in the Murray-Darling Basin. All showed significant relationships with streamflow, regional rainfall and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) at appropriate scales and time-lags, with streamflow explaining the most variance. Black Swans showed a strong seasonal cycle in abundance and local climate variables had the greatest influence on the counts. Numbers were positively correlated with streamflow in southern Victoria three to six seasons before each count. Broader-scale climatic patterns were more important for the other two species. Numbers of White-faced Herons were positively correlated with streamflow or rainfall over various parts of Australia seven to nine seasons before each count. Numbers of Grey Teal showed weak seasonal cycles, and were negatively correlated with rainfall in Victoria or the Murray-Darling Basin in the seasons before or during each count, and positively with streamflow in the Murray-Darling Basin 15-18 months before each count.

Animals↗

Phenology of temperate trees in tropical climates.

Several North American broad-leaved tree species range from the northern United States at approximately 47 degrees N to moist tropical montane forests in Mexico and Central America at 15-20 degrees N. Along this gradient the average minimum temperatures of the coldest month (T (Jan)), which characterize annual variation in temperature, increase from -10 to 12 degrees C and tree phenology changes from deciduous to leaf-exchanging or evergreen in the southern range with a year-long growing season. Between 30 and 45 degrees N, the time of bud break is highly correlated with T (Jan) and bud break can be reliably predicted for the week in which mean minimum temperature rises to 7 degrees C. Temperature-dependent deciduous phenology-and hence the validity of temperature-driven phenology models-terminates in southern North America near 30 degrees N, where T (Jan)>7 degrees C enables growth of tropical trees and cultivation of frost-sensitive citrus fruits. In tropical climates most temperate broad-leaved species exchange old for new leaves within a few weeks in January-February, i.e., their phenology becomes similar to that of tropical leaf-exchanging species. Leaf buds of the southern ecotypes of these temperate species are therefore not winter-dormant and have no chilling requirement. As in many tropical trees, bud break of Celtis, Quercus and Fagus growing in warm climates is induced in early spring by increasing daylength. In tropical climates vegetative phenology is determined mainly by leaf longevity, seasonal variation in water stress and day length. As water stress during the dry season varies widely with soil water storage, climate-driven models cannot predict tree phenology in the tropics and tropical tree phenology does not constitute a useful indicator of global warming.

Greenhouse Effect↗

Possible impacts of climate change on natural vegetation in Saxony (Germany).

Recent climate changes have had distinct impacts on plant development in many parts of the world. Higher air temperatures, mainly since the end of the 1980s, have led to advanced timing of phenological phases and consequently to an extension of the general growing season. For this reason it is interesting to know how plants will respond to future climate change. In this study simple phenological models have been developed to estimate the impact of climate change on the natural vegetation in Saxony. The estimations are based on a regional climate scenario for the state of Saxony. The results indicate that changes in the timing of phenophases could continue in the future. Due to distinct temperature changes in winter and in summer, mainly the spring and summer phases will be advanced. Spring phenophases, such as leafing or flowering, show the strongest trends. Depending on the species, the average timing of these phenophases could be advanced by 3-27 days by 2050. Phenophases in autumn show relatively small changes. Thus, the annual growth period of individual trees will be further extended, mainly because of the shift of spring phases. Frequent droughts in summer and in autumn can compensate for the earlier leafing of trees, because in this case leaf colouring and leaf fall would start some weeks earlier. In such cases, the growing period would not be really extended, but shifted to the beginning of the year.

Climate↗

Climate change: do we know enough for policy action?

The climate change problem must be thought of in terms of risk, not certainty. There are many well-established elements of the problem that carry considerable confidence whereas some aspects are speculative. Therefore, the climate problem emerges not simply as a normal science research issue, but as a risk management policy debate as well. Descriptive science entails using empirical and theoretical methods to quantify the two factors that go into risk assessment: "What can happen?" and "What are the odds?" (Probability x Consequences). Policymakers should, in turn, take that information and use it to make value judgments about what is safe, what is dangerous, what is fair. To make these judgments, policymakers need to know the probabilities that experts assign to various possible outcomes in order to make risk management decisions to hedge against unsafe, dangerous and unfair outcomes. The climate debate needs to be reframed away from absolute costs--or benefits--into relative delay times to achieve specific caps or to avoid crossing specific agreed 'dangerous' climate change thresholds. Even in most optimistic scenarios, CO2 will stabilize at a much higher concentration than it has reached today, and temperature will rise accordingly. It will take even longer for sea level rise from thermal expansion and the melting of polar ice to occur, but what is most problematic is that how we handle our emissions now and in the next five decades preconditions the sustainability of the next millennium.

Climate↗

The effect of climate on fractures and deaths due to falls among white women.

Climatic conditions may affect the incidence of fractures and fall deaths. Analysis of national fatality data shows that among white women, those living in colder climates have higher rates of fall deaths. Fall deaths increase in winter in all regions, but especially so in colder states. In a prospective cohort study of 96,506 predominantly white female nurses 35-59 years of age, we found that, after controlling for personal and lifestyle characteristics, those women residing in colder climate also had a higher incidence of hip and forearm fracture. In colder states, fracture rates were substantially higher in winter than in summer. A cold climate appears to be a significant risk factor for both fractures and fall deaths among white women, particularly as they age.

Accidental Falls↗