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Identifying influences on model uncertainty: an application using a forest carbon budget model.

Uncertainty is an important consideration for both developers and users of environmental simulation models. Establishing quantitative estimates of uncertainty for deterministic models can be difficult when the underlying bases for such information are scarce. We demonstrate an application of probabilistic uncertainty analysis that provides for refinements in quantifying input uncertainty even with little information. Uncertainties in forest carbon budget projections were examined with Monte Carlo analyses of the model FORCARB. We identified model sensitivity to range, shape, and covariability among model probability density functions, even under conditions of limited initial information. Distributional forms of probabilities were not as important as covariability or ranges of values. Covariability among FORCARB model parameters emerged as a very influential component of uncertainty, especially for estimates of average annual carbon flux.

Carbon↗

Dynamic energy budget models with size-dependent hazard rates.

We formulate and analyze two dynamic energy budget models, a net assimilation model with constant allocation strategy and a net production model with a 2-stage allocation strategy, with the objective of determining strategies that maximize the expected lifetime reproductive energy. The per capita death rate depends on the organism's size, as for example when the main cause of death is predation. In the analysis of the net production model, the size at maturity is calculated along with the probability of reaching that size. We show that a small probability of survival to maturity is incompatible with the simple assumption of an exponential survival probability. We demonstrate that when the hazard rate is significantly greater for small individuals than large ones, it is possible for the optimum strategy to be for an individual to grow to a large size in spite of an arbitrarily small probability of survival to maturity. Numerical simulations indicate how the optimal allocation strategies depend on the parameter values.

Animals↗

A dynamic energy budget model based on partitioning of net production.

We formulate a Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model for the growth and reproduction of individual organisms based on partitioning of net production (i.e. energy acquisition rate minus maintenance rate) between growth and energy reserves. Reproduction uses energy from reserves. The model describes both feeding and non-feeding stages, and hence is applicable to embryos (which neither feed nor reproduce), juveniles (which feed but do not reproduce), and adults (which commonly both feed and reproduce). Embryonic growth can have two forms depending on the assumptions for acquisition of energy from yolk. By default, when the energy acquisition rate exceeds the maintenance rate, a fixed proportion of the resulting net production is spent on growth (increase in structural biomass), and the remaining portion is channelled to the reserves. Feeding organisms, however, modulate their allocation of net production energy in response to their total energy content (energy in the reserves plus energy bounded to structural biomass). In variable food environment an organism alternates between periods of growth, no-growth, and balanced-growth. In the latter case the organism adopts an allocation strategy that keeps its total energy constant. Under constant environmental conditions. the growth of a juvenile is always of von Bertalanffy type. Depending on the values of model parameters there are two long-time possibilities for adults: (a) von Bertalanffy growth accompanied by reproduction at a rate that approaches zero as the organism approaches asymptotic size, or (b) abrupt cessation of growth at some finite time, following which, the rate of reproduction is constant. We illustrate the model's applicability in life history theory by studying the optimum values of the energy allocation parameters for constant environment and for each of the dynamic regimes described above.

Animals↗

Woody debris contribution to the carbon budget of selectively logged and maturing mid-latitude forests.

Woody debris (WD) is an important component of forest C budgets, both as a C reservoir and source of CO2 to the atmosphere. We used an infrared gas analyzer and closed dynamic chamber to measure CO(2) efflux from downed coarse WD (CWD; diameter>or=7.5 cm) and fine WD (FWD; 7.5 cm>diameter>or=2 cm) to assess respiration in a selectively logged forest and a maturing forest (control site) in the northeastern USA. We developed two linear regression models to predict WD respiration: one based on WD temperature, moisture, and size (R2=0.57), and the other on decay class and air temperature (R2=0.32). WD respiration (0.28+/-0.09 Mg C ha-1 year-1) contributed only approximately 2% of total ecosystem respiration (12.3+/-0.7 Mg C ha-1 year-1, 1999-2003), but net C flux from CWD accounted for up to 30% of net ecosystem exchange in the maturing forest. C flux from CWD on the logged site increased modestly, from 0.61+/-0.29 Mg C ha-1 year-1 prior to logging to 0.77+/-0.23 Mg C ha-1 year-1 after logging, reflecting increased CWD stocks. FWD biomass and associated respiration flux were approximately 7 times and approximately 5 times greater, respectively, in the logged site than the control site. The net C flux associated with CWD, including inputs and respiratory outputs, was 0.35+/-0.19 Mg C ha-1 year-1 (net C sink) in the control site and -0.30+/-0.30 Mg C ha-1 year-1 (net C source) in the logged site. We infer that accumulation of WD may represent a small net C sink in maturing northern hardwood forests. Disturbance, such as selective logging, can enlarge the WD pool, increasing the net C flux from the WD pool to the atmosphere and potentially causing it to become a net C source.

Biomass↗

Sulphate, nitrogen and base cation budgets at 21 forested catchments in Canada, the United States and Europe.

To assess the concern over declining base cation levels in forest soils caused by acid deposition, input-output budgets (1990s average) for sulphate (SO(4)), inorganic nitrogen (NO(3)-N; NH(4)-N), calcium (Ca), magnesium (Mg) and potassium (K) were synthesised for 21 forested catchments from 17 regions in Canada, the United States and Europe. Trend analysis was conducted on monthly ion concentrations in deposition and runoff when more than 9 years of data were available (14 regions, 17 sites). Annual average SO(4) deposition during the 1990s ranged between 7.3 and 28.4 kg ha(-1) per year, and inorganic nitrogen (N) deposition was between 2.8 and 13.8 kg ha(-1) per year, of which 41-67% was nitrate (NO(3)-N). Over the period of record, SO(4) concentration in deposition decreased in 13/14 (13 out of 14 total) regions and SO(4) in runoff decreased at 14/17 catchments. In contrast, NO(3)-N concentrations in deposition decreased in only 1/14 regions, while NH(4)-N concentration patterns varied; increasing at 3/14 regions and decreasing at 2/14 regions. Nitrate concentrations in runoff decreased at 4/17 catchments and increased at only 1 site, whereas runoff levels of NH(4)-N increased at 5/17 catchments. Decreasing trends in deposition were also recorded for Ca, Mg, and K at many of the catchments and on an equivalent basis, accounted for up to 131% (median 22%) of the decrease in acid anion deposition. Base cation concentrations in streams generally declined over time, with significant decreases in Ca, Mg and K occurring at 8, 9 and 7 of 17 sites respectively, which accounted for up to 133% (median 48%) of the decrease in acid anion concentration. Sulphate export exceeded input at 18/21 catchments, likely due to dry deposition and/or internal sources. The majority of N in deposition (31-100%; median 94%) was retained in the catchments, although there was a tendency for greater NO(3)-N leaching at sites receiving higher (<7 kg ha(-1) per year) bulk inorganic N deposition. Mass balance calculations show that export of Ca and Mg in runoff exceeds input at all 21 catchments, but K export only exceeds input at 16/21 sites. Estimates of base cation weathering were available for 18 sites. When included in the mass balance calculation, Ca, Mg and K exports exceeded inputs at 14, 10 and 2 sites respectively. Annual Ca and Mg losses represent appreciable proportions of the current exchangeable soil Ca and Mg pools, although losses at some of the sites likely occur from weathering reactions beneath the rooting zone and there is considerable uncertainty associated with mineral weathering estimates. Critical loads for sulphur (S) and N, using a critical base cation to aluminium ratio of 10 in soil solution, are currently exceeded at 7 of the 18 sites with base cation weathering estimates. Despite reductions in SO(4) and H(+) deposition, mass balance estimates indicate that acid deposition continues to acidify soils in many regions with losses of Ca and Mg of primary concern.

Acid Rain↗

Quantifying carbon budgets of conifer Mediterranean forest ecosystems, Turkey.

Aboveground biomass, aboveground litterfall, and leaf litter decomposition of five indigenous tree stands (pure stands of Pinus brutia, Pinus nigra, Cedrus libani, Juniperus excelsa, and a mixed stand of Abies cilicica, P. nigra, and C. libani) were measured in an eastern Mediterranean evergreen needleleaf forest of Turkey. Measurements were converted to regional scale estimates of carbon (C) stocks and fluxes of forest ecosystems, based on general non-site-specific allometric relationships. Mean C stock of the conifer forests was estimated as 97.8 +/- 79 Mg C ha(-1) consisting of 83.0 +/- 67 Mg C ha(-1) in the aboveground and 14.8 +/- 12 Mg C ha(-1) in the belowground biomass. The forest stands had mean soil organic carbon (SOC) and nitrogen (SON) stocks of 172.0 +/- 25.7 Mg C ha(-1) and 9.2 +/- 1.2 Mg N ha(-1), respectively. Mean total monthly litterfall was 376.2 +/- 191.3 kg C ha(-1), ranging from 641 +/- 385 kg C ha(-1) for Pinus brutia to 286 +/- 82 kg C ha(-1) for Cedrus libani. Decomposition rate constants (k) for pine needles were 0.0016 for Cedrus libani, 0.0009 for Pinus nigra, 0.0006 for the mixed stand, and 0.0005 day(-1) for Pinus brutia and Juniperus excelsa. Estimation of components of the C budgets revealed that the forest ecosystems were net C sinks, with a mean sequestration rate of 2.0 +/- 1.1 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1) ranging from 3.2 +/- 2 Mg C ha(-1) for Pinus brutia to 1.6 +/- 0.6 Mg C ha(-1) for Cedrus libani. Mean net ecosystem productivity (NEP) resulted in sequestration of 98.4 +/- 54.1 Gg CO2 yr(-1) from the atmosphere when extrapolated for the entire study area of 134.2 km2 (Gg = 10(9) g). The quantitative C data from the study revealed the significance of the conifer Mediterranean forests as C sinks.

Biomass↗

An integrated budget for selected pollutants for a major rural highway.

A comprehensive study has been made of the fluxes of selected pollutants emitted from a major rural highway in NW England. Lead, cadmium, copper, the organic compounds of lead and 8 PAH species have been studied and their fluxes measured in bulk deposition samples in transects away from the road in the road runoff waters and its associated sediments and in soil profiles. Data collected in detail over one year indicate that, in the case of lead, 8% of the emitted metal is removed in the drainage waters 6% is deposited in the first 50 m adjacent to the motorway and approximately 86% is dispersed in the atmosphere away from the immediate vicinity of the road. Uncertainties in the emission rates of the other metals prevent such budget calculations being made. The amount of PAH removed away from the road environment by the atmosphere varies from approximately 99% for the lowest molecular weight compounds to approximately 70% for the heavier compound.

England↗

Effects of food and mates on time budget in Aplysia fasciata: integration of feeding, reproduction, and locomotion.

This study examines the time budgeted to different behaviors in Aplysia fasciata under three conditions: (1) animals have constant access to food and mates: (2) there is access to food, but not to mates; (3) neither food nor mates are present. The data suggest a number of rules underlying behavioral integration: (1) Feeding, reproductive behaviors, and activity seem to be natural categories for behavioral choice. Feeding and reproductive behaviors are controlled in tandem by a common arousal mechanism, while time left over after animals feed and reproduce is distributed in a fixed ratio between locomotion (crawling and swimming) and inactivity (immobility and movement in place). (2) Relative distribution between different forms of locomotion and inactivity is modified by changes in motivational state. More time is spent swimming than crawling when feeding and/or mating is prevented, while more time is spent moving in place than immobile when the arousal level is increased. (3) Feedback control of feeding and reproduction is asymmetric. Satiation of feeding inhibits the common arousal. In the absence of food, time spent on reproductive behaviors increases due to disinhibition of the common arousal. By contrast, positive feedback arising from sexual behavior excites the common arousal. When mating is prevented by removing potential mates, time spent feeding decreases. (4) Generally, animals choose between performing the three main categories of behavior. Although Aplysia simultaneously can feed and mate, or locomote and mate, they do so infrequently. By contrast, different types of reproductive behaviors (male mating, female mating, egg-laying) are commonly performed simultaneously.

Animals↗

Dissolved inorganic nitrogen budget for a forested catchment at Beddgelert, North Wales.

An input-output budget for dissolved inorganic-N in a small forested catchment in North Wales is presented. From 1982 to 1990, bulk precipitation inputs averaged 10.3 kg ha(-1) year(-1), whereas throughfall inputs in 1983-1984 were 20.3 kg ha(-1) year(-1). Streamwater outputs were consistently larger than bulk precipitation inputs, averaging 14.6 kg ha(-1) year(-1). Inorganic-N in the forest stream was predominantly nitrate and concentrations were substantially higher than in a nearby moorland stream. Both streams showed seasonal trends in nitrate concentration, with highest concentrations occurring in summer in the forest stream but in winter in the moorland stream. Nitrate concentration in the forest stream increased with increasing soil temperature up to approximately 7 degrees C and decreased at higher temperatures. Nitrification is thought to be responsible for nitrate production at temperatures both below and above 7 degrees C, but root uptake becomes significant only at the higher temperatures. In the forest, dry deposition and cloudwater inputs of inorganic-N are responsible for increased nitrogen fluxes in throughfall compared with wet deposition. Mineralization and nitrification in excess of plant needs causes the organic soil horizons to act as a net source of dissolved inorganic-N. Nitrogen transformations in the soil lead to soil acidification at a rate of 1.0 keq ha(-1) year(-1).

Journal Article↗

Polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons in the United Kingdom environment: a preliminary source inventory and budget.

This paper presents the first attempt to quantify the production, cycling, storage and loss of PAHs in the UK environment. Over 53 000 tonnes of sigmaPAHs (sum of 12 individual compounds) are estimated to reside in the contemporary UK environment, with soil being the major repository. If soils at contaminated sites are included, this estimate increases dramatically. Emission of PAHs to the UK atmosphere from primary combustion sources are estimated to be greater than 1000 tonnes sigmaPAHs per annum, with over 95% coming from domestic coal combustion, unregulated fires and vehicle emissions. It is estimated that approximately 210 tonnes of sigmaPAH are delivered to terrestrial surfaces each year via atmospheric deposition. Therefore, inputs of PAHs to the UK atmosphere outweigh the outputs by a factor of over 4. This may be explained by enhanced particulate deposition near point sources, PAH degradation in the atmosphere and transport away from the UK with prevailing winds. Disposal of waste residues is estimated to contribute a further 1000 tonnes of sigmaPAH per year to the terrestrial environment. It is illustrated that the use of creosote has the potential to release considerable quantities of PAHs to the UK environment. Temporal trends in PAH cycling are then considered. There is good evidence to suggest that air concentrations and fluxes to the UK surface are now lower than at any time throughout this century. Nonetheless, the UK sigmaPAH burden is still increasing at the present time, principally through retention by soils. However, there are marked differences in the behaviour of individual compounds: there is evidence, for example, that phenanthrene concentrations in soils have declined since the 1960s, although soil concentrations of benzo[a]pyrene and other heavier PAHs have continued to increase through this century. Volatilisation of low molecular weight PAHs accumulated in soils over previous decades may be making an important contribution to the current atmospheric burden. The major uncertainties identified by data on this budget are: (1) the lack of PAH concentrations in some environmental matrices; (2) the possible importance of contaminated soils as a major repository and source of PAHs; (3) the lack of emission data (especially vapour phase releases) for some PAH sources; (4) the importance of biodegradation and volatilisation as loss mechanisms for low molecular weight PAHs in soils; and (5) the importance of creosote use in the PAH cycle.

Journal Article↗

Carbon dioxide and oxygen budgets of a plant cultural system in a CELSS--a case of cultivation of lettuce and turnips.

In order to collect basic data about CO2 and O2 budgets of a plant cultural system in a CELSS, the variation of the CO2 absorption rates of lettuce and turnips were observed during the growing period, under different conditions. The O2 release rates were deduced from the CO2 absorption rates multiplied by 32/44. As a result, when the light intensity, the photoperiod and the atmospheric CO2 concentration increased, the rates also increased. The effects on the turnips were more significant than those on the lettuce. Turnips at 310 micromoles/m2/s of PPFD, 24 hours of photoperiod and 1100 ppm of CO2 concentration grew most actively in the present experimental conditions. One turnip absorbed 32.3 g CO2 and released 23.5 g O2 for 6 days between 24 days and 30 days after sowing.

Carbon Dioxide↗

Maternal activity budgets: feasibility of exclusive breastfeeding for six months among urban women in Honduras.

Although exclusive breastfeeding for 6 months is likely to be beneficial for infant health, mothers often cite time pressures as a reason to introduce other foods. Using 12-hr in-home observations at 19 and 24 wk postpartum, we compared maternal activity budgets and time spent breastfeeding among low-income, urban mothers not employed outside the home who exclusively breastfed (EBF) or gave other foods in addition to breast milk (BF+SF). Breastfeeding time was similar between groups (averaging approx 75 min/12 hr) except that multiparous EBF mothers at 24 wk spent more time breastfeeding their infants than did BF+SF mothers. However, total time devoted to infant feeding (including preparation and feeding of solids in the BF+SF group) was significantly greater in the BF+SF group than in the EBF group (except among multiparous women at 24 wk). Feeding frequency per 12-hr averaged 6.7-8.9 in the EBF group and 5.4-8.1 BF + 1.8 meals in the BF+SF group. Both EBF and BF+SF mothers had considerable 'free' time; they spent, on average, 2-3 hr during each 12-hr period resting, chatting or watching TV. Primiparous women tended to spend less time at household chores and child care than multiparous women. Of the BF+SF mothers, 60% said that breastfeeding was 'somewhat' or 'very' time-demanding (vs 15% of EBF mothers), 49% said that it interfered with other activities (vs 6% of EBF mothers), and 26% said that they gave other foods to extend the time between breastfeeds. Although many of the BF+SF mothers knew that giving foods may increase infant illness, there were cultural pressures not to exclusively breastfeed. For example, many introduced solids to their infants prior to 6 months because they believed that infants should 'learn' how to eat other foods, to 'acclimate' the stomach and learn to differentiate flavors. We conclude that time constraints are not a barrier to exclusive breastfeeding in this population, although they may be perceived as a barrier.

Activities of Daily Living↗

Energy budget versus temporal discounting as determinants of preference in risky choice.

Four pigeons and three ringneck doves responded on an operant simulation of natural foraging. After satisfying a schedule of reinforcement associated with search time, subjects could "accept" or "reject" another schedule of reinforcement associated with handling time. Two schedules of reinforcement were available, a variable interval, and a fixed interval with the same mean value. Food available in the session (a variable related to the energy budget) was manipulated in the different conditions either by increases of the value of the search state schedule of reinforcement, or by increases in the mean value of the handling state schedules. The results indicate that the amount of food available in the session did not affect the preference for variable schedules of reinforcement, as would be predicted by an influential theory of risk sensitive foraging. Instead, the preference for variability depended on the relationship between the time spent in the search and the handling states, as is predicted by a family of models of choice that are based on the temporal proximity to the reinforcer.

Animals↗

Ecosystem carbon budgeting and soil carbon sequestration in reclaimed mine soil.

Global warming risks from emissions of green house gases (GHGs) by anthropogenic activities, and possible mitigation strategies of terrestrial carbon (C) sequestration have increased the need for the identification of ecosystems with high C sink capacity. Depleted soil organic C (SOC) pools of reclaimed mine soil (RMS) ecosystems can be restored through conversion to an appropriate land use and adoption of recommended management practices (RMPs). The objectives of this paper are to (1) synthesize available information on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from coal mining and combustion activities, (2) understand mechanisms of SOC sequestration and its protection, (3) identify factors affecting C sequestration potential in RMSs, (4) review available methods for the estimation of ecosystem C budget (ECB), and (5) identify knowledge gaps to enhance C sink capacity of RMS ecosystems and prioritize research issues. The drastic perturbations of soil by mining activities can accentuate CO2 emission through mineralization, erosion, leaching, changes in soil moisture and temperature regimes, and reduction in biomass returned to the soil. The reclamation of drastically disturbed soils leads to improvement in soil quality and development of soil pedogenic processes accruing the benefit of SOC sequestration and additional income from trading SOC credits. The SOC sequestration potential in RMS depends on amount of biomass production and return to soil, and mechanisms of C protection. The rate of SOC sequestration ranges from 0.1 to 3.1 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1) and 0.7 to 4 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1) in grass and forest RMS ecosystem, respectively. Proper land restoration alone could off-set 16 Tg CO2 in the U.S. annually. However, the factors affecting C sequestration and protection in RMS leading to increase in microbial activity, nutrient availability, soil aggregation, C build up, and soil profile development must be better understood in order to formulate guidelines for development of an holistic approach to sustainable management of these ecosystems. The ECBs of RMS ecosystems are not well understood. An ecosystem method of evaluating ECB of RMS ecosystems is proposed.

Carbon↗

Effects of increased deposition of atmospheric nitrogen on an upland moor: nitrogen budgets and nutrient accumulation.

This study was designed to investigate the effect of long-term (11 years) ammonium nitrate additions on standing mass, nutrient content (% and kg ha(-1)), and the proportion of the added N retained within the different compartments of the system. The results showed that more than 90% of all N in the system was found in the soil, particularly in the organic (Oh) horizon. Added N increased the standing mass of vegetation and litter and the N content (kg N ha(-1)) of almost all measured plant, litter and soil compartments. Green tissue P and K content (kg ha(-1)) were increased, and N:P ratios were increased to levels indicative of P limitation. At the lowest treatment, most of the additional N was found in plant/litter compartments, but at higher treatments, there were steep increases in the amount of additional N in the underlying organic and mineral (Eag) horizons. The budget revealed that the proportion of added N found in the system as a whole increased from 60%, 80% and up to 90% in response to the 40, 80 and 120 kg N ha(-1) year(-1) treatments, respectively.

Air Pollutants↗

Development and application of a GIS-based sediment budget model.

Accelerated erosion and increased sediment yields resulting from changes in land use are a critical environmental problem. Resource managers and decision makers need spatially explicit tools to help them predict the changes in sediment production and delivery due to unpaved roads and other types of land disturbance. This is a particularly important issue in much of the Caribbean because of the rapid pace of development and potential damage to nearshore coral reef communities. The specific objectives of this study were to: (1) develop a GIS-based sediment budget model; (2) use the model to evaluate the effects of unpaved roads on sediment delivery rates in three watersheds on St. John in the US Virgin Islands; and (3) compare the predicted sediment yields to pre-existing data. The St. John Erosion Model (STJ-EROS) is an ArcInfo-based program that uses empirical sediment production functions and delivery ratios to quantify watershed-scale sediment yields. The program consists of six input routines and five routines to calculate sediment production and delivery. The input routines have interfaces that allow the user to adjust the key variables that control sediment production and delivery. The other five routines use pre-set erosion rate constants, user-defined variables, and values from nine data layers to calculate watershed-scale sediment yields from unpaved road travelways, road cutslopes, streambanks, treethrow, and undisturbed hillslopes. STJ-EROS was applied to three basins on St. John with varying levels of development. Predicted sediment yields under natural conditions ranged from 2 to 7Mgkm(-2)yr(-1), while yield rates for current conditions ranged from 8 to 46Mgkm(-2)yr(-1). Unpaved roads are estimated to be increasing sediment delivery rates by 3-6 times for Lameshur Bay, 5-9 times for Fish Bay, and 4-8 times for Cinnamon Bay. Predicted basin-scale sediment yields for both undisturbed and current conditions are within the range of measured sediment yields and bay sedimentation rates. The structure and user interfaces in STJ-EROS mean that the model can be readily adapted to other areas and used to assess the impact of unpaved roads and other land uses sediment production and delivery.

Analysis of Variance↗

137Cs budget during the period of 1960s in a small drainage basin on the Loess Plateau of China.

A sediment profile with a thickness of 28.12 m in a failed reservoir in a small catchment of the Yuntaishan Gully in the Loess Plateau of China consisted of 44 flood couplets deposited during the period from 1960 to 1970 with total volume of 2.36 x 10(6)m(3). Specific sediment yields for a flood event varied from 300 t km(-2) to 14,400 t km(-2) and annual sediment yields varied from 2500 t km(-2) in 1966 to 40,000 t km(-2) in 1964 with a mean value of 12,700 t km(-2)a(-1) for the period. Average annual (137)Cs concentrations of the sediments increased from 0.92 Bq kg(-1) in 1960 to 4.82 Bq kg(-1) in 1963, then decreased to 1.53 Bq kg(-1) in 1970. The total (137)Cs activity in the reservoir sediments was 9.22 x 10(9) Bq, which accounted for 31.9% of the total (137)Cs fallout precipitation of 2.89 x 10(10) Bq within the catchment during the period. The proportion of the (137)Cs loss from the catchment to the (137)Cs fallout precipitation within the catchment in a year varied between 8.01% and 66.8%, and it was 20.9% for the peak (137)Cs deposition year of 1963 and 52.0% in 1964. By analysis of the (137)Cs budget in the catchment for the (137)Cs peak precipitation period from 1962 to 1964, the (137)Cs surface enrichment coefficient Gamma should be much less than 0.23. And for calculation of soil losses on the cultivated land in the inter-gully area by using the Mass Balance Model II, the value of Gamma should be 0.05-0.1.

Cesium Radioisotopes↗

When do mixotrophs specialize? Adaptive dynamics theory applied to a dynamic energy budget model.

In evolutionary history, several events have occurred at which mixotrophs specialized into pure autotrophs and heterotrophs. We studied the conditions under which such events take place, using the Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory for physiological rules of the organisms' metabolism and Adaptive Dynamics (AD) theory for evolutionary behavior of parameter values. We modeled a population of mixotrophs that can take up dissolved inorganic nutrients by autotrophic assimilation and detritus by heterotrophic assimilation. The organisms have a certain affinity for both pathways; mutations that occur in the affinities enable the population to evolve. One of the possible evolutionary outcomes is a branching point which provides an opportunity for the mixotrophic population to split up and specialize into separate autotrophs and heterotrophs. Evolutionary branching is not a common feature of the studied system, but is found to occur only under specific conditions. These conditions depend on intrinsic properties such as the cost function, the level of the costs and the boundaries of the trait space: only at intermediate cost levels and when an explicit advantage exists to pure strategies over mixed ones may evolutionary branching occur. Usually, such an advantage (and hence evolutionary branching) can be induced by interference between the two affinities, but this result changes due to the constraints on the affinities. Now, only some of the more complicated cost functions give rise to a branching point. In contrast to the intrinsic properties, extrinsic properties such as the total nutrient content or light intensity were found to have no effect on the evolutionary outcomes at all.

Adaptation, Physiological↗