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Life expectancy in Down syndrome.

This study is part of a collaborative effort between the Division of Vital Statistics, Ministry of Health, Province of British Columbia and the Department of Medical Genetics, University of British Columbia. Permission to use the provincial vital and health records was conditional on the strict observance of the oath of secrecy regarding the nonstatistical information contained in the records. To develop life expectancy data for Down syndrome, we studied 1341 patients with Down syndrome identified by the British Columbia Health Surveillance Registry from more than one million consecutive live births from 1952-1981 inclusive. Our results indicate that life expectancy is much better than generally believed. For patients with Down syndrome with congenital heart anomalies, survival to age 1 year is 76.3%; to age 5, 61.8%; to age 10, 57.1%; to age 20, 53.1%; and to age 30, 49.9%. For patients with Down syndrome without congenital heart anomalies, survival to the same ages is 90.7%; 87.2%, 84.9%, 81.9%, and 79.2%, respectively. Survival for these patients without congenital heart defects is still significantly lower than that for a comparison group of mentally retarded persons without congenital heart defects.

Actuarial Analysis↗

Recovery of consciousness and life expectancy of children in a vegetative state.

The vegetative state does occur in children and is most commonly due to acquired traumatic and non-traumatic injuries. However, neurometabolic and degenerative diseases, as well as certain developmental brain malformations such as anencephaly, can also cause this condition. There are limited data available in children concerning recovery of consciousness and function from the vegetative state as well as life expectancy. This review concentrates on these issues and is based primarily on the data published in the Multi-Society Task Force Report on PVS which was published in 1994 as well as other epidemiological studies. Children in a vegetative state do have a poor prognosis for recovery of consciousness and function and do have a shortened life expectancy. Further research is needed to better understand what variables might contribute to recovery and what therapies might be of benefit.

Adolescent↗

Prediction of life expectancy in patients with primary pulmonary hypertension. A retrospective nationwide survey from 1980-1990.

Primary pulmonary hypertension (PPH) is a progressive disease of unknown etiology usually followed by death within 5 years after diagnosis. Although heart-lung or lung transplantation is now offered to patients with advanced PPH, adequate criteria assessing an accurate prediction of life expectancy in PPH has been difficult to establish. The aims of this study were to identify the characteristic features associated with a poor prognosis in patients with PPH, and to attempt to establish an individual prognostic index that predicts with great accuracy survival or death of PPH after one year, thereby helping to define criteria for patient selection for transplantation. In 1991, a retrospective nation-wide survey on PPH was conducted in Japan, and the clinical and cardiorespiratory variables of 223 PPH cases (female; 144, male; 79) in the period from 1980-1990 were obtained. The mean pulmonary arterial pressure (PPA) was 57.5+/-17.2 mm Hg (mean+/-SD), and the overall median survival time was 32.5 months since the first diagnostic catheterization. The characteristic features of 61 patients who died within one year of catheterization (Nonsurvivors group) were compared to 141 patients who survived one year or more from the time of catheterization (Survivors group). Among several clinical and cardiorespiratory variables, heart rate, PPA, right atrial pressure (PRA), stroke volume index (SI), pulmonary vascular resistance, and partial pressure of carbon dioxide (PaCO2) were significantly different between the two groups. As the independent factors, PPA, PRA, SI, and PaCO2 were selected for the multiple logistic analysis. Using a 0.7 probability cut-point to separate Nonsurvivors from Survivors, 84.6% of Nonsurvivors and Survivors could be correctly predicted from this logistic regression equation. Predictive equations like the present preliminary one can be used in the future to better assess life expectancy in patients with PPH in whom transplantation will be considered.

Adolescent↗

Improving life expectancy and decreasing the incidence of complications associated with type 2 diabetes: a modelling study of HbA1c targets.

To project the long-term clinical and cost outcomes that accompany predefined improvements in glycaemic control in patients with type 2 diabetes. A peer-reviewed, validated, non-product-specific Markov model of type 2 diabetes was used to project the long-term clinical and cost outcomes associated with three HbA1c reduction scenarios (vs. no reduction): (i) decreasing mean HbA1c from 9.5% to 8.0%; (ii) from 8.0% to 7.0%; and (iii) from 7.0% to 6.5%. A typical baseline US type 2 diabetes cohort derived from National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data was simulated over a lifetime horizon (35 years). Incidence of diabetes-related complications and costs (2005 USD) were accounted based on published data. Discount rates (3% per annum) were applied to clinical benefits and costs. Sensitivity analyses were performed. Stepwise reductions in HbA1c as an independent variable correlated with delayed time to diabetes-related complications and a reduced cumulative incidence of complications, including cardiovascular, renal and neurologic comorbidities. Related costs also decreased. Reductions in both poorly- (9.5-8.0%) and better-controlled (7.0-6.5%) patients produced incremental gains in undiscounted life expectancy (LE) [1.06 (0.31) and 0.32 (0.34) years [mean (SD)], respectively]. Similar improvement patterns were observed in quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE). Benefits from sequential reduction scenarios, when aggregated, exhibited the most dramatic effect. Improved glycaemic control was associated with reductions in complication rates and costs, as well as increased LE and QALE among type 2 patients. These data illustrate the long-term importance of reaching normoglycaemia and support intensified HbA1c control as a cornerstone of effective long-term type 2 diabetes management.

Blood Glucose↗

Life expectancy change in perturbed communities: derivation and qualitative analysis.

Pollution, loss of habitat, and climate change are introducing dramatic perturbations to natural communities and affecting public health. Populations in perturbed communities can change dynamically, in both abundance and age structure. While analysis of the community matrix can predict changes in population abundance arising from a sustained or press perturbation, perturbations also have the potential to modify life expectancy, which adds yet another means to falsify experimental hypotheses and to monitor management interventions in natural systems. In some instances, an input to a community will produce no change in the abundance of a population but create a major shift in its mean age. We present an analysis of change in both abundance and life expectancy, leading to a formal quantitative assessment as well as qualitative predictions, and illustrate the usefulness of the technique through general examples relating to vector-borne disease and fisheries.

Animals↗

[Life expectancy as an indicator of outcome].

Usually survival studies evaluate the percentage of subjects alive or disease-free at a given point in time (cumulative survival percentage). These studies require a lengthy period both for follow up and for the collection of an exhaustive number of cases. In addition, for cancer types with a sharp gradient of cumulative mortality, the estimate may be unstable. On the database of children with Acute Lymphoblastic Leukaemia (ALL) collected by the Childhood Cancer Registry of Piedmont (CCRP) in 1979-1991, we have estimated an alternative time-dimensional index to estimate both patients' life expectancy of patient and number of years gained to death. These estimates have been compared in subsets of the database corresponding to different periods of diagnosis and efficacy of treatment. Life expectancy has been evaluated as the area under the survival curve, on the assumption that after a number of years since diagnosis, survivors have the same mortality rates of the general population. Clinicians are invited to take into consideration the approach described in the present note.

Adolescent↗

Life expectancy after hip arthroplasty. Case-control study of 1018 cases of primary arthrosis.

The long-term survival of 1018 total hip arthroplasty (THA) patients (237 McKee-Farrar, 449 Brunswik and 332 Lubinus patients) operated on for primary arthrosis was compared with pair-matched controls (i.e., patients operated on for other orthopedic indications) and with a normal population. The 10-year survival after surgery for the McKee-Farrar patients was 85 percent, for the Brunswik patients 82 percent, for the Lubinus patients 82 percent and for the orthopedic control patients 84 percent, respectively. The 10-year survival after 65 years of age for the THA patients was 78 percent and for the normal population 73 percent. The long-term life expectancy of our patients with a cemented THA was equal to that of our orthopedic control group and better than the life expectancy of the Finnish population.

Age Factors↗

Trends and disparities in socioeconomic and behavioural characteristics, life expectancy, and cause-specific mortality of native-born and foreign-born populations in the United States, 1979-2003.

BACKGROUND: Immigrants are a growing segment of the US population. In 2003, there were 33.5 million immigrants, accounting for 12% of the total US population. Despite a rapid increase in their numbers, little information exists as to how immigrants' health and mortality profile has changed over time. In this study, we analysed trends in social and behavioural characteristics, life expectancy, and mortality patterns of immigrants and the US-born from 1979 to 2003. METHODS: We used national mortality and census data (1979-2003) and 1993 and 2003 National Health Interview Surveys to examine nativity differentials over time in health and social characteristics. Life tables, age-adjusted death rates, and logistic regression were used to examine nativity differentials. RESULTS: During 1979-81, immigrants had 2.3 years longer life expectancy than the US-born (76.2 vs 73.9 years). The difference increased to 3.4 years in 1999-2001 (80.0 vs 76.6 years). Nativity differentials in mortality increased over time for major cancers, cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, respiratory diseases, unintentional injuries, and suicide, with immigrants experiencing generally lower mortality than the US-born in each period. Specifically, in 1999-2001, immigrants had at least 30% lower mortality from lung and oesophageal cancer, COPD, suicide, and HIV/AIDS, but at least 50% higher mortality from stomach and liver cancer than the US-born. Nativity differentials in mortality, health, and behavioural characteristics varied substantially by ethnicity. CONCLUSIONS: Growing ethnic heterogeneity of the immigrant population, and its migration selectivity and continuing advantages in behavioural characteristics may partly explain the overall widening health gaps between immigrants and the US-born.

Cause of Death↗

Successful aging. How increased life expectancy and medical advances are changing geriatric care.

If the unprecedented increase in life expectancy has a downside, it is the exposure of risk to chronic age-related disorders. As clinicians work to foster healthy aging, we must also seek ways to prevent the disabling disorders that keep many older persons from enjoying their longevity. The high prevalence of chronic illness and functional limitation among older persons underscores the need for strategically directed health and social services. Successful patient management must extend beyond diagnosis and disease treatment and include promotion of function and prevention of decline. Achieving this goal requires a seamless continuum of management and interdisciplinary caregiving. There also must be a focus on improving the understanding of the science of aging. New treatment approaches for managing aging may one day include cognitive enhancers, designer hormones, telomerase, antioxidants, and gene therapy.

Aged↗

Prediction of life-expectancy in hospice patients: identification of novel prognostic factors.

The prediction of life-expectancy in terminally ill patients is important both for medical and social reasons but is widely recognized as being inaccurate. In this study we prospectively collected data items which we proposed might influence survival on 148 consecutive patients at first admission to one of two hospices. Of the 19 parameters collected, four were associated with a significantly shortened survival. These were low performance status (PS), requirement for admission at first referral to the palliative care service, elevated serum bilirubin, and hypotension. Factors previously identified as predictive of shortened survival such as hyponatraemia, weight loss, confusion and tumour type were not confirmed as statistically significant independent variables. We plan to collect these data items on future patients in order to test the validity of these results.

Adult↗

Mortality pattern and life expectancy of Seventh-Day Adventists in the Netherlands.

The mortality pattern of Seventh-Day Adventists (SDAs) in the Netherlands was assessed during a ten-year study period, 1968-1977. Of 522 deceased SDAs the causes of death of 482 could be ascertained. Standardized Mortality Ratios (SMR) for total mortality (SMR = 0,45), cancer (SMR = 0,50) and cardiovascular diseases (SMR = 0,41) as well as for various subgroups differed significantly from the total Dutch population. Mean age at death as well as life-expectation at baptism were significantly higher in SDAs, both in males and females, as compared with Dutch males and females. A health survey among a sample of the total SDA population and a group of 'friend' controls' was done in order to try to explain the differences in mortality pattern and life expectancy. It is concluded that evidence was found for the thesis that abstinence from cigarette smoking is the main factor explaining the low mortality from ischaemic heart diseases among SDAs, while presumably an appropriate (prudent) diet confers additional benefit for example on colon cancer mortality.

Adolescent↗

Assessing life expectancies of older nursing home residents.

OBJECTIVE: Care of nursing home (NH) residents is often based on the usual survival of the home's residents. In order to improve our understanding of this population, and, thus, ultimately facilitate individualization of their care, we developed a mathematical model that predicts their survival. SETTING: The Jewish Home and Hospital (JHH), a nursing home. PARTICIPANTS: 1145 older residents who were at the JHH from January 1, 1986, through July 1, 1986. MEASUREMENTS: Information abstracted from medical records and JHH computerized data: clinical, demographic, and dependencies in activities of daily living (ADLs). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: survival from July 1, 1986. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study via medical chart review. The study period covered admission to JHH through January 17, 1996. Accelerated failure time (AFT) models generated the life expectancy model derived from 50% of the study group and were validated on the remaining sample. We computed predicted AFT and proportional hazards (PH) life expectancies. RESULTS: Significant, independent predictors of decreased survival were male gender, increased age, increase in summary ADL index, and impairment of cardiac, respiratory, neurological, and endocrine/metabolic systems. The interaction between gender and respiratory system impairment was significant. The Spearman correlation coefficients between the observed survivals and those predicted by the Phase I model are 0.49 for Phase I residents and 0.42 for Phase II residents. Our sample life table includes NH residents with different risk profiles and their associated survival estimates as well as interquartile ranges. AFT and PH survivals were similar. CONCLUSION: This first comprehensive model that predicts survival of NH residents can help formulate public health policies and identify appropriate NH residents for clinical trials. The model is a promising step toward improving the health care of NH residents.

Actuarial Analysis↗

[Active life expectancy for elderly Japanese by chewing ability].

OBJECTIVE: Panel interview surveys of nationally representative elderly people aged 65 years or above in Japan were conducted three times at 2-year intervals since 1999 (Nihon University Japanese Longitudinal Study of Aging) to estimate health expectancy for males and females separately according to their chewing ability. METHOD: Multistate life table methods were applied to estimate health expectancy. Three health states, namely, active, inactive and dead, were defined according to the ability to perform specified daily activities. Living respondents were considered to be in an "inactive state" if they responded "very difficult" or "unable" for performance of at least one ADL or IADL. Otherwise they were considered to be in an "active state". 4,323 sampled persons who responded to the baseline survey were included in the study. Based on estimated transition probabilities over the survey period between active and inactive states, and active and inactive states to death, both population- and status-based multistate life tables were constructed according to chewing ability. Those who could chew relatively hard foods at the baseline survey were classified as Group A and those who could chew only relatively soft foods were classified as Group B. RESULTS: The population-based multistate life tables indicated that at age 65, total life expectancy was 19.3/23.2 (males/females) years for Group A and 16.7/21.1 years for Group B. Active life expectancy was 16.8/18.6 years and 13.6/16.3 years, and inactive life expectancy was 2.4/4.6 years and 3.1/4.8 years for Groups A and B respectively. A statistically significant difference was observed between the two groups only in terms of active life expectancy. From status-based multistate life tables, similar patterns were observed for those whose status at the baseline was "active". CONCLUSION: These results suggest that maintenance or recovery of sufficient chewing ability for elderly people is related to a longer total life expectancy and even more strongly related to a longer active life expectancy.

Activities of Daily Living↗

Age at menopause, cause-specific mortality and total life expectancy.

BACKGROUND: A later menopause has been associated with a decreased cardiovascular risk but with an increased risk for breast and endometrial cancer. The net effect on mortality is unclear. We determined the association of age at menopause with longevity and with the balance between cardiovascular and cancer mortality. METHODS: We analyzed data from a breast cancer screening cohort comprising 12,134 postmenopausal women followed for an average of 17 years. We used Cox proportional hazards models and life tables to calculate the life expectancy of an average Dutch woman at age 50. RESULTS: During 204,024 person-years, there were 2607 deaths, of which 963 were due to cardiovascular diseases and 812 due to cancer. Ischemic heart disease risk decreased with a later menopause (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.98 per year; 95% confidence interval = 0.96-0.99), but the risk of fatal uterine or ovarian cancer increased (1.07 per year; 1.01-1.12). A later menopause was associated with longer overall survival; HR for total mortality was 0.98 per year (0.97-0.99). Life expectancy in women with menopause after age 55 was 2.0 years longer than those with menopause before age 40. Adjustment for potential confounders did not materially change the results. CONCLUSIONS: Age-adjusted mortality is reduced 2% with each increasing year of age at menopause. In particular, ischemic heart disease mortality is 2% lower. Although the risk of death from uterine or ovarian cancer is increased by 5%, the net effect of a later menopause is an increased lifespan.

Age Distribution↗

Cholesterol reduction and life expectancy. A model incorporating multiple risk factors.

In deciding whether to undertake a dietary program to reduce serum cholesterol levels, a person must consider how much benefit to expect. We developed a model that assumes cholesterol reduction is effective and safe in reducing the risk for death from ischemic heart disease. In the model, we considered asymptomatic adults with total serum cholesterol levels between 180 and 300 mg/dL. We defined risk status on the basis of blood pressure, smoking habit, and high-density-lipoprotein cholesterol level. For persons aged 20 to 60 years who are at low risk, we calculate a gain in life expectancy of 3 days to 3 months from a lifelong program of cholesterol reduction. For persons who are at high risk, the calculated gain ranges from 18 days to 12 months. Knowledge of the magnitude of the calculated benefits in increased life expectancy afforded by cholesterol reduction can assist persons in making decisions about dietary change.

Age Factors↗

Life expectancy in the Marfan syndrome.

Data reported in 1972 indicated that lifespan in patients with the Marfan syndrome is markedly shortened, and that most deaths are cardiovascular. This study was performed to determine whether survival in the Marfan syndrome has changed since 1972, and to discern whether treatment (medical or surgical) has altered prognosis. Survival curves were generated on 417 patients from 4 referral centers, with a definite diagnosis of the Marfan syndrome. Birth date, age at death, cardiovascular surgery, or treatment with beta blockers, or any combination of these, were included in the analysis. Forty-seven of 417 patients died. Mean age at death (41 +/- 18 years) was significantly increased compared with age in 1972 (32 +/- 16 years, p = 0.0023). Median (50%) cumulative probability of survival in 1993 was 72 years compared with 48 years in 1972. Of 112 surgically treated patients, 10-year probability of survival was 70%. Patients undergoing surgery after 1980 enjoyed significantly increased survival than patients who had undergone operation before 1980 (p = 0.008). In conclusion, life expectancy for patients with the Marfan syndrome has increased > 25% since 1972. Reasons for this dramatic increase may include (1) an overall improvement in population life expectancy, (2) benefits arising from cardiovascular surgery, and (3) greater proportion of milder cases due to increased frequency of diagnosis. Medical therapy (including beta blockers) was also associated with an increase in probable survival.

Adult↗

Life expectancy following spinal cord injury: a ten-years survey in the Rhône-Alpes Region, France, 1969-1980.

A ten years survey of 848 patients having sustained traumatic spinal cord injury between 1969 and 1979 was conducted in the Rhône-Alpes Region, France. All patients had been referred to the spinal cord injury unit, Hôpital Henry Gabrielle. 48 deaths were recorded: 36 patients admitted early to the Unit, and 12 patients injured before 1969 but followed-up in the Unit. The deceased patients were older and more frequently male and tetraplegic than the rest of the group. In 75 per cent of the deceased patients, the survival time was less than 1/5 of the theoretical life expectancy. In 59 per cent, it was less than 1/10. Twenty tetraplegics died of respiratory complications. Three patients committed suicide, the rest died of urinary complications. The results appear to determine a secondary period with high mortality rate, after the initial high mortality of these patients. About one year post-injury, the life expectancy in our series appears to tend towards the values observed in the French population.

Adolescent↗