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An uncertainty principle in demography and the unisex issue.

"The purpose of this article is to show that if many characteristics affect the mortality of individuals, there are intrinsic limits to the ability of demographers to answer two elementary questions:" whether the force of mortality in the last year was more or less severe in one country relative to that in a second, and whether an individual's chance of survival would have been greater in one or the other of the two countries. The author notes that the conclusions are applicable to all demographic crude rates. "The possibility of encountering Simpson's paradox suggests that since sex is only one of many possible stratifying variables that appear to affect mortality, the use of mortality tables distinguished by sex and by no other variables is, in the absence of information about the importance of other variables, demographically arbitrary."

Demography↗

[African demography: trends and prospects].

"The development of the African population between 1950 and 1985 has shown considerable acceleration since 1965. On the basis of United Nations sources published in 1986, the current demographic situation is examined in its various aspects: age structure, natality, nuptiality, mortality, migration and urbanization. The relationship between population and development, particularly as regards demographic transition, is established, leading to comparisons between Africa and the rest of the world." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Africa↗

[Causality, systems, and dynamic models. Three approaches of the explanation in demography].

The authors compare three methods of demographic analysis: "causal analysis, the transition models and the dynamic models. The purpose of these three approaches is not the same: transition models examine the transformation of a system during a given period; the dynamic model outlines the evolution of a social process through time; the causal analysis describes the mechanism through which the causes produce its effects. The three approaches differ also in the way they take time into account...[In particular,] causal static models are not pertinent in demographic research." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Demography↗

[A biographical approach to demography].

The merits of a biographical approach to demographic analysis are examined using survey data. "The analysis of complex interaction between diverse phenomena, using bivariate or multivariate models has been elaborated, and it allows the discovery of various types of dependence between events (reciprocal or unilateral) or of their independence. At this stage, heterogeneity of the observed populations was introduced, with the help of parametric or semi-parametric models, which point out the different strategies followed. The problems caused by non-observed heterogeneity have been partially solved but interdisciplinary collaboration would now appear to be necessary." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND GER AND SPA)

Demography↗