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PubMed2003

A model to predict severe HCV-related disease following liver transplantation.

Post-transplantation recurrence is increasing in patients with HCV. Early antiviral therapy may be of benefit in this setting. Thus, accurate and early prediction of progression may help select candidates for treatment. We developed a model based on pre- and/or early post-transplantation variables, which may predict progression to severe disease. Clinical and histologic outcomes were assessed in 554 liver recipients. A total of 1,353 biopsy specimens obtained after 1 year (median of 2 biopsies per patient; range, 1-8) were scored. Two outcome measures were used: cumulative probability of developing severe disease (fibrosis 3 and 4) within 5 years and actual progression to severe disease in 2 years. We used Cox proportional hazard survival analysis for the whole cohort. Predictors analyzed included HCV genotype and recipient, donor, and transplant-related variables. The cumulative risk of progressing to fibrosis 3 and 4 was significantly greater in patients transplanted recently (P <.001) and was present in all centers. Factors increasing this risk were genotype, induction with mycophenolate, donor age, short course of azathioprine, and prednisone (<12 months). To create a model of prediction, 285 patients with 2-year follow-up were used to create a logistic regression analysis. The estimated probability of being at high risk for severe disease was calculated from a formula that included donor age and recipient therapy as critical variables. In conclusion, we have developed a model that uses early post-transplantation variables to predict severe HCV recurrence. Accuracy of the model is not perfect (c-statistic 0.80), probably reflecting the complexity of HCV in the liver transplant setting.

Adult↗
PubMed1998

Assessment of the clinical usefulness of the 'Queenan' chart versus the 'Liley' chart in predicting severity of rhesus iso-immunization.

In 1961 Liley developed a chart of changing amniotic fluid bilirubin levels (delta OD450) and gestation, with three zones delineating the severity of rhesus disease. This chart ranged from 27 to 40 weeks and was found to be clinically useful. Extrapolating the use of the Liley chart to earlier gestations however, was unsuccessful. Currently, cordocentesis is the only reliable means of assessing the fetal condition accurately prior to 27 weeks. In 1993, Queenan proposed a chart of delta OD450 from 14 to 40 weeks, with four zones to guide management. The aim of the current study is to assess the clinical usefulness of the 'Queenan' chart vs. the 'Liley' chart. There were 35 pregnancies affected by rhesus disease between 1990 and 1997 at the Mater Mothers' Hospital, Brisbane. The quantitative anti-D and delta OD450 levels obtained before intra-uterine transfusions were recorded. Each sample was labelled with the fetal condition at the time the sample was taken. Of the 72 delta OD450 samples, 36 (50 per cent) were performed before 27 weeks, and these included all four of the severely affected samples and 11 of the 13 moderately affected samples. The sensitivity of the Queenan chart in predicting the severely affected pregnancies was 100 per cent, with specificity of 79.4 per cent, positive predictive value of 22.2 per cent and negative predictive value of 100 per cent. For prediction of moderate/severely affected pregnancies, the sensitivity was 83.3 per cent, with specificity of 94.4 per cent, positive predictive value of 83.3 per cent and negative predictive value of 96.3 per cent. In conclusion, an delta OD450 chart which includes gestations less than 27 weeks is necessary with our changing caseload of rhesus iso-immunized patients, where severely affected pregnancies seemed to occur early and intervention even in moderately affected pregnancies seemed appropriate. We found that the Queenan chart is a suitable alternative to the Liley chart.

Amniocentesis↗
PubMed1998

Value of early blood Th-1 cytokine determination in predicting severity of acute pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND: Early evaluation of the severity of acute pancreatitis (AP) requires measurement of many variables within 48 h after admission. Septic complications (SC) are frequent, and preliminary studies have highlighted the value of prophylactic antibiotherapy; however, single and reliable predictive markers of sepsis are not yet available. The aim of this study was to assess the value of determining early blood Th-1 cytokines and their natural antagonists (interleukin-6 (IL-6), IL-1, IL-1ra, and the soluble form of tumor necrosis factor (sTNF) receptors RI and RII) to predict the severity and SC during AP. METHODS: Thirty-seven patients with AP were prospectively included; 25 of them had severe AP, including 8 with SC. Serum cytokines were measured 48 h and 72 h after the onset of AP with an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The optimal severity or SC diagnostic thresholds was determined using receiver operative curves. RESULTS: Severe AP in accordance with the Atlanta criteria were better predicted by C-reactive protein and IL-6 serum determination, albeit these levels could not predict absolutely the death of two patients. In severe AP cases (n = 25) the IL-1 to IL-1-ra ratio was lower in cases further complicated by sepsis ((6+/-4) 10(-3) versus (34+/-13) 10(-3), P < 0.05); moreover, sTNF RI (2497+/-270 pg/ml versus 2133+/-611 pg/ml, P < 0.05) and RII (3751+/-400 pg/ml versus 3045+/-509 pg/ml, P < 0.05) were higher in AP characterized by further SC. The IL-1 to IL-1-ra ratio and IL-1 concentration were dramatically decreased within the first 48 h ((0.4+/-0.4) 10(-3) versus (30+/-11) 10(-3), P < 0.05, and 0.3+/-0.3 versus 15+/-3 ng/l, P < 0.05) in patients with further infection of the pancreatic necrosis (n = 3). The SC diagnosis was better anticipated by an IL-1 to IL-1-ra ratio lower than 5 x 10(-3) or by an sTNF RI higher than 1750 pg/ml and sTNF RII higher than 2750 pg/ml, and the infection of the pancreatic necrosis by an IL-1 concentration <2 ng/l or an IL-1 to IL-1-ra ratio <2 x 10(-3). CONCLUSION: Besides severity markers, IL-1, IL-1-ra, and sTNF RI and RII should be considered in base-line AP assays and, if confirmed by larger studies, could help to screen patients at risk for SC and candidates for prophylactic antibiotherapy with a good negative predictive value.

Acute Disease↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Use of urinary beta-2-microglobulin to predict severe renal damage in fetal obstructive uropathy.

PURPOSE: Establish a clinically relevant threshold for urinary beta 2-microglobulin (beta 2m) to predict the presence of several renal damage in fetuses with obstructive uropathies. METHODS: Retrospective review was conducted of urinary beta 2m levels, clinical outcomes, and pathological findings in 36 fetuses evaluated for presumed obstructive uropathy. Patients were divided into those free of renal injury (group 1, n = 13) and those with clinical or pathological evidence of severe irreversible renal injury (group 2, n = 23). RESULTS: Including all patients, a threshold beta 2m value of > 6 was able to predict the presence of severe renal damage with a 83% sensitivity and 71% specificity. beta 2m levels tended to decrease with increasing gestational age among those patients without renal injury (group 1), while beta 2m levels increased among those with severe renal damage (group 2). There was no difference in mean beta 2m levels in those < 20 weeks (p = 0.065) while there was a high degree of difference in those > 20 weeks of gestation (p < 0.001). In those > 20 weeks, a threshold of > 10 predicted the presence of severe renal damage with 100% sensitivity and specificity. CONCLUSIONS: Urinary beta 2m, especially in the fetus > 20 weeks, may be a clinically useful marker to detect the presence of severe renal damage due to obstructive uropathy and thus be an important adjuvant in the proper selection of fetuses for antenatal intervention.

Creatinine↗
PubMed1994

The significance of patient appearance in predicting severity of injury.

The observations of pallor, sweating, agitation and restlessness, at the time of an injured patient's admission to the resuscitation room, were compared with other more complex indices of injury severity and the ability of each observation to predict mortality was observed. The number of positive observations was significantly related to the Revised Trauma Score and the Injury Severity Score, and pallor was significantly related to mortality. The observation that an injured patient is pale is an important index of severity.

Humans↗
PubMed1997

Cold intolerance following peripheral nerve injury. Natural history and factors predicting severity of symptoms.

Cold intolerance can be severe and debilitating following injury to the hand. Little is known about its natural history and factors predicting symptom severity. We looked retrospectively at upper limb peripheral nerve injuries over a 12-year period. Information was obtained using a patient questionnaire and patient records. The incidence of cold intolerance was 83%. In 48% the onset of symptoms was within 1 month of the initial injury. At a mean follow-up of 51 months improved symptoms were reported by 21%, while 18% deteriorated. Patients were more likely to develop cold intolerance if they smoked and less likely if they suffered a sharp injury. A score defining the severity of cold induced symptoms, based on the information collected, was calculated for each patient. Significantly increased severity was associated with complete nerve division, median and ulnar nerve division and an associated vessel injury. Symptom improvement was significantly more likely in non-smokers and a deterioration most likely with a high severity score.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1993

Predicting severity of trauma by admission white blood cell count, serum potassium level, and arterial pH.

Traumatized patients frequently have leukocytosis, hypokalemia, and acidosis. The purpose of this study was to determine whether the admission serum potassium level (K+), white blood cell count (WBC), and arterial pH predicted the severity of injury in trauma patients. The injury severity score (ISS), total length of stay in the hospital (tLOS), and length of stay in the intensive care unit (LOS-ICU) were used to measure the severity of the injury. The charts of 156 consecutive trauma patients admitted to a level II trauma center were reviewed. Acidosis (arterial pH < 7.35) was associated with an increased mean ISS, tLOS, and LOS-ICU. Leukocytosis (WBC > or = 10,500/mm3) correlated with a higher mean ISS, and LOS-ICU. Patients with hypokalemia (K+ < 3.6 mEq/L) had an increased mean ISS and tLOS. Our findings suggest that the admission white blood cell count, serum potassium level, and arterial pH have a predictive value as to the severity of injury.

Acidosis↗
PubMed1999

The value of assessing pulmonary venous flow velocity for predicting severity of mitral regurgitation: A quantitative assessment integrating left ventricular function.

Although alteration in pulmonary venous flow has been reported to relate to mitral regurgitant severity, it is also known to vary with left ventricular (LV) systolic and diastolic dysfunction. There are few data relating pulmonary venous flow to quantitative indexes of mitral regurgitation (MR). The object of this study was to assess quantitatively the accuracy of pulmonary venous flow for predicting MR severity by using transesophageal echocardiographic measurement in patients with variable LV dysfunction. This study consisted of 73 patients undergoing heart surgery with mild to severe MR. Regurgitant orifice area (ROA), regurgitant stroke volume (RSV), and regurgitant fraction (RF) were obtained by quantitative transesophageal echocardiography and proximal isovelocity surface area. Both left and right upper pulmonary venous flow velocities were recorded and their patterns classified by the ratio of systolic to diastolic velocity: normal (>/=1), blunted (<1), and systolic reversal (<0). Twenty-three percent of patients had discordant patterns between the left and right veins. When the most abnormal patterns either in the left or right vein were used for analysis, the ratio of peak systolic to diastolic flow velocity was negatively correlated with ROA (r = -0.74, P <.001), RSV (r = -0.70, P <.001), and RF (r = -0.66, P <.001) calculated by the Doppler thermodilution method; values were r = -0.70, r = -0.67, and r = -0.57, respectively (all P <.001), for indexes calculated by the proximal isovelocity surface area method. The sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of the reversed pulmonary venous flow pattern for detecting a large ROA (>0.3 cm(2)) were 69%, 98%, and 97%, respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of the normal pulmonary venous flow pattern for detecting a small ROA (<0.3 cm(2)) were 60%, 96%, and 94%, respectively. However, the blunted pattern had low sensitivity (22%), specificity (61%), and predictive values (30%) for detecting ROA of greater than 0.3 cm(2) with significant overlap with the reversed and normal patterns. Among patients with the blunted pattern, the correlation between the systolic to diastolic velocity ratio was worse in those with LV dysfunction (ejection fraction <50%, r = 0.23, P >.05) than in those with normal LV function (r = -0.57, P <.05). Stepwise linear regression analysis showed that the peak systolic to diastolic velocity ratio was independently correlated with RF (P <.001) and effective stroke volume (P <.01), with a multiple correlation coefficient of 0.71 (P <.001). In conclusion, reversed pulmonary venous flow in systole is a highly specific and reliable marker of moderately severe or severe MR with an ROA greater than 0.3 cm(2), whereas the normal pattern accurately predicts mild to moderate MR. Blunted pulmonary venous flow can be seen in all grades of MR with low predictive value for severity of MR, especially in the presence of LV dysfunction. The blunted pulmonary venous flow pattern must therefore be interpreted cautiously in clinical practice as a marker for severity of MR.

Aged↗
PubMed1990

An 'admission challenge test' to predict severe hypertension in pregnancy?

Although many pregnant women are admitted to hospital for 'high blood pressure' during the third trimester, less than a third of them will subsequently develop severe hypertension. We used a Dinamap 1846 vital signs monitor to measure the blood pressure every 5 min during the first hour in hospital of a group of 51 previously normotensive pregnant women admitted with hypertension. An average systolic pressure at or above 140 mmHg was recorded in 37% of patients and, of these, 68% went on to develop severe hypertension. Conversely, if the average systolic pressure on admission was below 140 mmHg, only 3% of patients later developed severe hypertension. In terms of sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of severe hypertension, the 1-hour automated blood pressure profile was superior to conventional measurements whether they were made prior to admission, on admission, or during the first 24 hours after admission.

Adult↗
PubMed2004

Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder symptoms and response inhibition after closed head injury in children: do preinjury behavior and injury severity predict outcome?

We examined the effect of closed head injury (CHI) on the development of symptoms of secondary attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (SADHD), emotional disturbance, and impaired response inhibition. We also investigated the relation of developmental and recovery variables to SADHD symptoms and inhibition. Participants were 200 children aged 5-17 years, 137 children who had CHI, and 63 children with no history of CHI served as controls. We assessed preinjury behavior problems, head injury variables (severity, age at time of injury, time since injury), postinjury SADHD, and anxiety symptoms at least 2 years following the head injury. Response inhibition was measured with the stop-signal task. CHI predicted the development of SADHD symptoms and anxiety with more severe injury predicting more severe outcomes. Only the combination of severe CHI and a high level of SADHD symptoms predicted poor response inhibition. Postinjury anxiety was not associated with poor inhibition. The consequences of CHI did not vary with age at injury or time since injury, but poorer outcome was predicted by preinjury behavior problems. CHI in children leads to SADHD symptoms and anxiety even after taking preinjury disturbance into account. Poor response inhibition is a consequence of CHI but only when the CHI is severe and the child manifests high levels of SADHD symptoms.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1995

Proximal jet size by Doppler color flow mapping predicts severity of mitral regurgitation. Clinical studies.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies have shown that many instrument and physiological factors limit the ability of color Doppler total jet area within the receiving chamber to predict the severity of valvular regurgitation. In contrast, the proximal or initial dimensions of the jet as it emerges from the orifice have been shown to increase directly with orifice size and to correlate well with the severity of aortic insufficiency. Only limited data, however, are available regarding the value of proximal jet size in mitral regurgitation, and it has not been examined in short-axis or transthoracic views. The purpose of the present study, therefore, was to evaluate the relation between proximal jet size and other measures of the severity of mitral regurgitation. METHODS AND RESULTS: In 49 patients, the anteroposterior height of the proximal jet as it emerges from the mitral valve was measured in the parasternal long-axis view; proximal jet width and area were measured in the short-axis view at the same level. Results were compared with regurgitant volume and fraction by pulsed Doppler subtraction of aortic and mitral flows in 47 patients without more than trace aortic insufficiency; with angiographic grade determined within 24 hours in 33 catheterized patients; and with angiographic regurgitant fraction in 13 patients who were in normal sinus rhythm and had no significant aortic and tricuspid insufficiency. Proximal jet height, width, and area correlated well with Doppler regurgitant volume and fraction (r = .86 to .95; SEE = 7.7 to 9.0 mL; 5.9% to 7.3%). Proximal jet size could also be used to distinguish angiographic grades of mitral regurgitation with minimal overlap (P < .0001) and correlated well with angiographic regurgitant fraction (r = .85 to .91; SEE = 4.1% to 5.1%). CONCLUSIONS: Proximal jet size correlates well with established measures of the severity of mitral regurgitation. It is conveniently available with transthoracic clinical scanning and should be useful in the routine evaluation of patients with mitral regurgitation.

Adult↗
PubMed2000

Proposed abdominal sonographic staging to predict severity of liver diseases: analysis with peritoneoscopy and histology.

Abdominal sonography is a routinely used noninvasive modality for screening and treatment of liver diseases. We attempted to establish a morphological sonographic staging to predict the severity of liver diseases with their consequent analysis with morphological staging of peritoneoscopy and histology. In all, 136 patients were enrolled for the final confirmation of disease state by peritoneoscopy and histology preceded by abdominal sonography. All patients were categorized from stage 0 to stage 5, depending on a proposed criterion of sonographic features based on surface pattern of liver and the appearance of internal echogenic bands relating to the irregularity of the liver texture. A digitized computer quantitation of histogram-based standard deviation (SD) values from different stages of sonographic images was analyzed, and their values were justified by correlation with the definite appearance of an internal echogenic band. The association of different sonographic stages with disease progression was also demonstrated by their relation with peritoneoscopy and histology. In all patients, the different sonographic staging results were significantly correlated with hepatic surface features of peritoneoscopic staging (r = 0.939, P < 0.0001) graded from stage 0 to stage 5 and were also correlated with biopsy-proven staging of fibrosis (r = 0.739, P < 0.0001). The greater SD values of histogram-based echo levels, as analyzed from digitized sonographic images of 90 patients, were associated with the appearance of internal echogenic bands (P < 0.0001). Furthermore, the corresponding SDS were significantly correlated with the qualitative staging of sonographic features (r = 0.781, P < 0.0001), peritoneoscopy (r = 0.786, P < 0.0001) and histology (r = 0.779, P < 0.0001). We concluded that our proposed sonographic staging is well correlated with peritoneoscopic and histological staging of liver diseases, with only a small discrepancy, and can be used clinically to demonstrate the ongoing severity of liver diseases.

Abdomen↗
PubMed2006

Predicting severity of haemophilia A and B splicing mutations by information analysis.

Bleeding symptoms and clotting activity vary among mutations that alter mRNA splicing of either the factor VIII or factor IX genes. We analyzed splicing mutations in both genes for changes in individual information (R(i), in bits) involving both donor or acceptor sites. Mutations with low or negative R(i) values (<2.4 bits) or significant changes in R(i) (DeltaR(i) > or = 7 bits) exhibited either reduced protein activity, increased clotting time and bleeding frequency and were predictive of severe disease. Thus, information analysis of splicing mutations may be useful in predicting phenotypes in hemophilia.

Factor IX↗
PubMed2000

The TaqI A1 allele of the dopamine D2 receptor gene and alcoholism in Brazil: association and interaction with stress and harm avoidance on severity prediction.

Allele and genotype frequencies of the TaqI A polymorphism of dopamine D2 receptor (DRD2) gene were compared in 115 alcohol-dependent Brazilian males and 114 ethnically matched controls. Regression analyses were performed to test for an interactive effect between the DRD2 TaqI A1 allele and measures of stress and harm avoidance on severity of alcoholism and number of antisocial personality symptoms. A slightly positive association of DRD2 TaqI A1 genotypes with alcoholism was observed, by standard and molecular heterosis approaches. The DRD2 TaqI A1 allele showed significant interaction with stress and harm avoidance in predicting the severity of physiologic dependence, and with harm avoidance for the number of antisocial personality symptoms. Separate partial correlation analyses showed that stress-related variables were significantly correlated with severity scores in alcoholics with the allele, but not in those without it. This is the first demonstration of an interaction between a genetic polymorphism and stress-related measures on the severity of psychiatric disorders.

Adult↗
PubMed2002

An evaluation of baseline risk factors predicting severity in juvenile idiopathic arthritis associated uveitis and other chronic anterior uveitis in early childhood.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: The clinical course for childhood chronic anterior uveitis can vary from mild, self limiting disease to bilateral blindness. The purpose of this study was to identify those risk factors at onset that predict disease severity. METHODS: A retrospective case note review of all patients with painless anterior uveitis diagnosed from 1982 to 1998. Patients were divided into two cohorts based on route of referral, diagnosis, and compliance with treatment. The standard cohort consisted of only those diagnosed from routine screening of juvenile idiopathic arthritis. RESULTS: Complications-cataract surgery, ocular hypertension treatment, and visual acuity <6/24. Remission: inactive uveitis on no topical treatment for >6 months. Results-163 patients were included. 34 patients (21%) developed at least one complication. The most significant predictor of complications was severe disease at onset (p = 0.001). Other factors included uveitis at the first examination (p = 0.034), membership of the non-standard cohort (p = 0.0001), non-oligoarticular disease (p = 0.02), and late onset arthritis (p = 0.024). Male sex was associated with increased complications in the standard cohort (p = 0.001). Factors predisposing to remission included membership of the standard cohort (p = 0.003), onset after 1990 (p = 0.016), white race (p = 0.015), mild disease onset (p = 0.003), and a long gap between arthritis and uveitis onset (p = 0.015). CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to characterise the severity of those with childhood chronic anterior uveitis at the onset of disease. The majority of patients remit without visually disabling complications. It may be possible to reduce the complication rate by targeting aggressive immunosuppression on high risk patients before complications develop.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1991

Predicting severity of depression in the elderly at six-month follow-up: a neuropsychological study.

The authors conducted psychopathological and neuropsychological assessments on a pilot sample of 15 nondemented elderly depressed patients at the outset of inpatient treatment and again after 6 months. Pretreatment performance on a test of confrontation naming was predictive of severity of depressive symptoms at follow-up. These findings tentatively suggest that the naming ability of elderly depressed subjects may have prognostic significance.

Aged↗
PubMed1993

Preinfection chemotactic response of blood polymorphonuclear leukocytes to predict severity of Escherichia coli mastitis.

Experimental mastitis was induced by inoculating rear right quarters of 10 healthy cows with 10(3) cfu of Escherichia coli. The chemotactic responses of peripheral blood polymorphonuclear leukocytes at d-6, -5, -2, -1, and immediately prior to inoculation were measured. Chemiluminescence of polymorphonuclear leukocytes was measured immediately prior to inoculation. Severity of the experimental mastitis was assessed by bacterial growth in the inoculated quarters. Results of this study indicated that severity of the experimental mastitis may be predicted by the chemotactic response in vitro of polymorphonuclear leukocytes isolated from the peripheral blood at d 2, d 1, and immediately prior to inoculation. The number of circulating polymorphonuclear leukocytes immediately prior to inoculation also showed a negative relationship with the severity of mastitis. No relationship existed between preinfection chemiluminescence of polymorphonuclear leukocytes and the severity of the experimental mastitis.

Animals↗
PubMed1998

Abnormal electroencephalogram at diagnosis of insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus may predict severe symptoms of hypoglycemia in children.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the predictive value of the electroencephalogram (EEG) at the time of diagnosis of insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM) for subsequent hypoglycemic coma and/or convulsion. To study whether such an episode causes long-term EEG abnormalities. STUDY DESIGN: An EEG was recorded in 36 patients with IDDM 2 to 3 weeks after diagnosis (median age, 7.5 years) and was then repeated after an episode of severe hypoglycemia associated with coma and/or convulsion (median age, 13.3 years). Paired EEGs were also recorded in 36 age-matched and IDDM duration-matched control patients who had never experienced severe hypoglycemia. A single EEG was recorded in 36 healthy children, matched with patients' ages at the time of IDDM diagnosis. RESULTS: Patients with severe hypoglycemia had an abnormal initial EEG recording more often than did control patients with IDDM (22.2% vs 2.8%, P =.03). Each of the healthy children had a normal EEG recording. The odds ratio for risk of subsequent coma and/or convulsion during hypoglycemia in patients with abnormal initial EEG recordings was 8 (95% CI, 1.1-354.7). After such an episode, the frequency of the abnormal EEG recordings was not elevated. CONCLUSIONS: EEG at the time of diagnosis of IDDM may be useful in identifying those patients at increased risk for coma and/or convulsion as a result of hypoglycemia. However, a single such episode did not appear to have a deleterious effect on the subsequent EEG.

Adolescent↗