SEARCH · Search PubMed

Results for “prediction”

Search indexed PubMed citations on genomics, clinical trials, systematic reviews and public health. Explore titles, authors and supplied subject terms, then open the PubMed record.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

253 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

PubMed2026

Serum Copeptin Rises After Tolvaptan for Hyponatraemia, but Does Not Predict Risk of Rapid Sodium Rise: Pre-Specified Secondary Analysis of the TVFR Trial.

OBJECTIVE: Hyponatraemia is a common electrolyte disorder often driven by excess arginine vasopressin (AVP). Copeptin is a stable surrogate marker co-secreted with AVP. It is unclear whether treatment of hyponatraemia with tolvaptan, an AVP-V2 receptor antagonist, impacts copeptin. We aimed to assess the effects of tolvaptan on serum copeptin, compared to fluid restriction. DESIGN: Pre-specified secondary analysis of an open-label randomised trial comparing tolvaptan or fluid restriction for 3 days. PATIENTS: Hospitalised patients with plasma sodium (pNa) 115-130 mmol/L at a single-centre tertiary hospital in Melbourne, Australia. MEASUREMENTS: Copeptin measured at baseline and completion (Day 4, or discharge if sooner). RESULTS: Copeptin results were available in 45/54 participants, randomised to tolvaptan (n = 25) or FR (n = 20). Mean baseline copeptin was 10.4 pmol/L. pNa increased in both groups, significantly more with tolvaptan as previously reported. Copeptin remained stable after FR, but significantly increased after tolvaptan (mean adjusted difference between groups over 3 days 8.4 pmol/L, 95% CI 2.1-14.6, p = 0.01). Baseline copeptin did not predict rapid sodium rise. The rise in copeptin after tolvaptan may represent an exaggerated response to osmolality rise in these patients ('reset osmostat'), or feedback mechanisms from AVP blockade. CONCLUSION: Tolvaptan increased serum copeptin compared to fluid restriction. Further research is required to determine if there is clinical utility for measuring copeptin in hyponatraemia before it is adopted into practice. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ACTRN12619001683123.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Unconfined compressive strength prediction for the ordinary Portland cement-steel slag-silica fume ternary system based on response surface methodology.

This research was undertaken to address environmental concerns associated with industrial solid waste and to reduce cement consumption in geotechnical engineering. It specifically investigates the feasibility of using steel slag (SS) and silica fume (SF) as partial substitutes for ordinary Portland cement (OPC) in soil stabilization. The effects of SS, SF, OPC, and initial moisture content on the unconfined compressive strength (UCS) of stabilized soil were investigated through single-factor experiments and response surface methodology (RSM). The results show that SS and SF can synergistically enhance the strength of stabilized soil, although their interaction effect was not statistically significant within the investigated ranges. Compared with soil stabilized solely with OPC, the addition of 18 % SS and 10 % SF reduced OPC consumption by 3 % without compromising strength. Microstructural and compositional analyses further revealed that SS mainly supplied calcium- and silica-bearing components, while SF provided highly reactive silica and micro-filling effects, jointly promoting hydration reactions and improving the compactness of the stabilized soil matrix. As a result, more hydration products were formed in the OPC/SS/SF-stabilized soil than in the OPC-stabilized soil, which contributed to pore filling and strength enhancement. This study provides useful guidance for the sustainable utilization of industrial solid waste and the low-carbon development of soil stabilization materials.

Construction Materials↗

PubMed2026

An oxidative stress - and immunotherapy-related six-gene signature defines immune subtypes and predicts prognosis and immunotherapy response in hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Oxidative stress and the tumor immune microenvironment jointly shape hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) progression and response to immunotherapy, yet integrated biomarkers linking these processes are lacking. METHODS: Transcriptomic and clinical data from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) datasets were used to identify oxidative stress- and immunotherapyrelated differentially expressed genes (OSIRDEGs). Functional enrichment, weighted gene co-expression network analysis (WGCNA) and LASSO-Cox regression were used to construct a prognostic signature. Consensus clustering, TIDE, CIBERSORT and ssGSEA characterized immune phenotypes. Somatic mutation, copy-number and drug-response data were integrated to assess genomic alterations and drug sensitivity. Expression of model genes was validated by qRT-PCR and western blotting in HCC cell lines. RESULTS: We identified 24 OSIRDEGs enriched in cell-cycle and mitotic pathways. WGCNA intersection yielded 18 module genes, from which a six-gene signature (BUB1B, CDKN2A, CENPE, HMMR, PTTG1, SPP1) was derived. The signature robustly stratified patients into high- and low-risk groups with significantly different progression-free and disease-free survival in both TCGA-LIHC and GSE14520. Based on signature expression, two molecular subtypes were defined, exhibiting distinct survival, immune landscapes and predicted immunotherapy responsiveness. Model genes harbored recurrent alterations and showed significant correlations with anticancer agents. All six genes were upregulated at mRNA and protein levels in metastatic HCC cell lines versus normal hepatocytes. CONCLUSIONS: We systematically explored the landscape of OSIRDEGs in HCC, and proposed a validated six-gene signature that refines prognostic stratification, delineates immunerelevant HCC subtypes and highlights candidate biomarkers for therapeutic selection and mechanistic investigation.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Development and validation of a comprehensive prognostic model for 28-day ICU mortality in non-traumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage: an analysis based on the MIMIC-IV database.

BACKGROUND: Due to the complex pathophysiology of non-traumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH), accurate risk prediction remains a challenge. Our aim is to develop and validate a comprehensive prognostic model that integrates demographic characteristics, vital signs, laboratory parameters, and more, to provide clinical decision-making support in real-world practice. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 785 Non-traumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage patients. The cohort was randomly divided into a training set (n = 549) and a validation set (n = 236). Feature selection was performed using LASSO regression, followed by backward stepwise Cox regression for optimization. A nomogram was constructed based on independent predictive factors, and model performance was assessed using discrimination, calibration, and decision curve analysis. To prevent immortal-time bias, all predictors were anchored to a fixed early (first-24-hour) measurement window, treatment variables were modelled as binary indicators rather than cumulative exposures, and a five-model sensitivity analysis with baseline-severity adjustment was performed. RESULTS: The development of our model followed a systematic approach: first, 15 potential predictive factors were selected via LASSO regression, which were then refined to 12 independent predictors using backward stepwise Cox regression. The final predictive factors included: Ventilation, AHT, Nimodipine 60 mg, Age, SAPS.II, Input amount, Calcium total, Platelet count, White blood cells, Anion gap, pH, and Chloride. The integrated model demonstrated excellent predictive ability for 7-day, 14-day, and 21-day mortality in both the training set (AUC: 0.972, 0.934, 0.898) and the validation set (AUC: 0.968, 0.948, 0.911). Calibration curves and decision curve analysis confirmed the model's reliability and clinical utility across different time points. We constructed a nomogram for individualized risk prediction. Univariate Kaplan-Meier survival analysis demonstrated significant stratification of survival outcomes by each predictor, while restricted cubic spline analysis revealed non-linear relationships between continuous variables and mortality risk. Random survival forest analysis identified the top three predictive factors (Nimodipine 60 mg, Ventilation, AHT) and compared them with our full 12-variable model, confirming superior performance of the integrated model at all time points. At the 28-day primary endpoint, the model achieved a time-dependent AUC of 0.898 (training) and 0.904 (validation); after restricting predictors to the early baseline window, the leakage-controlled model retained good discrimination (validation C-index 0.803). CONCLUSIONS: Our ICU 28-day mortality prognosis model demonstrated robust performance in predicting ICU 28-day mortality in non-traumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage. The model, through the nomogram, provides individualized risk assessment, aiding clinical decision-making and patient stratification.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Early-stage trajectories of social-occupational functioning and long-term functional outcome prediction in early psychosis: A 12-year follow-up of the randomized controlled trial on extended early intervention.

BACKGROUND: Functional impairment in psychosis often persists despite symptomatic remission. There is a paucity of research examining early-course psychosocial functioning trajectories, and none has been conducted to examine relationship between the trajectories and prospective long-term functional outcomes in early psychosis sample. METHODS: We conducted 12-year follow-up of a randomized controlled trial on extended early intervention for first-episode psychosis to identify early-course social-occupational functioning trajectories and their baseline predictors and associations with 12-year outcomes. Participants who completed Social and Occupational Functioning Scale (SOFAS) scores at three or more timepoints between baseline and 3-year follow-up were included in the study. Premorbid adjustment, illness characteristics, symptom severity, functioning, and treatment profiles were assessed. Latent growth mixture modeling was employed to derive early-course social-occupational functioning trajectories based on SOFAS scores over 3-year follow-up. RESULTS: A total of 148 participants were included in this study, with 106 patients having completed the 12-year follow-up. Our results identified four distinct trajectories, including persistently-good class, gradually-improved class, suboptimal-stable class, and persistently-poor class. Patients in persistently-poor class had more severe negative symptoms at baseline compared to patients in persistently-good class. Patients with persistently-poor trajectory had worse long-term outcomes than those with other classes in the majority of functional measures at 12-year follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of patients were classified in early-stage suboptimal or poor functional trajectories. Above one-fourth of the participants exhibited persistently-poor social-occupational functioning trajectory, which predicted worse functional outcomes at 12-year follow-up. These findings highlighted the importance of tracking functional changes during the initial years of illness.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Evaluation of the clinical and mechanistic role of MCM2 expression in the prediction of meningioma recurrence after radiotherapy.

OBJECTIVE: Postoperative radiotherapy is an effective treatment for meningiomas; however, treatment response varies among patients. In addition, practical methods for predicting tumor recurrence after radiotherapy have not been well established. Minichromosome maintenance protein 2 (MCM2), a key regulator of DNA replication licensing, was recently implicated in highly proliferative molecular subtypes of meningioma. In this study, the authors evaluated whether MCM2 immunohistochemical expression predicts response to radiotherapy in patients with meningiomas. METHODS: The authors retrospectively analyzed the records of patients with WHO grade 1-3 meningiomas treated with resection followed by radiotherapy at a single institution between July 2003 and November 2023. The MCM2 labeling index was assessed immunohistochemically, and patients were stratified into MCM2-high and -low groups using a cutoff of 35%. Progression-free survival (PFS) was defined as the interval from the completion of radiation therapy to postoperative radiological tumor recurrence or regrowth. Patients who showed no progression were censored at their last follow-up. PFS was estimated using Kaplan-Meier analysis and subsequently evaluated with Cox proportional hazards models. To further investigate the biological mechanisms associated with MCM2 expression, comprehensive transcriptomic analyses, including gene set enrichment analysis, was performed to elucidate the molecular processes that occur within MCM2-high tumors. RESULTS: The study population included 15 men (42%) and 21 women (58%), with a mean age of 63 years. Ten tumors (28%) were classified as MCM2-high meningiomas and 26 (72%) as MCM2-low meningiomas. High MCM2 expression was significantly associated with WHO grades 2-3 histology and higher Ki-67 labeling indices. During a median follow-up of 2.52 years, tumor progression after radiotherapy occurred in 47% of the patients. High MCM2 expression (HR 8.34, p = 0.03) was significantly associated with shorter PFS and remained an independent predictor of recurrence after adjustment for WHO grade, tumor size, and Ki-67 labeling index. Transcriptomic analyses of MCM2-high tumors revealed upregulation of cell proliferation-related pathways, accompanied by increased signaling through the E2F8-CHEK1 axis associated with radiation resistance and suppression of the TNF-α signaling pathway implicated in radiosensitivity. CONCLUSIONS: In meningiomas, high MCM2 expression is associated with early recurrence following radiotherapy. The study findings suggest that this association is driven by diverse biological mechanisms related to cell cycle regulation and radioresistance. Immunohistochemical assessment of MCM2 expression may serve as a practical and accessible biomarker for risk stratification and may support the future development of individualized postoperative radiotherapy strategies.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Non-parametric differential methylation analysis characterizes histotype-specific promoter regions in epithelial ovarian cancer.

Epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) is a heterogenous disease with frequent late-stage diagnosis and high mortality rates, for which no reliable screening tests exist. In recent years, epigenetic biomarkers in the form of DNA methylation in CpG-rich regions have gained increased attention in the scientific community due to their robust nature and accessibility, allowing for diagnosis without the need for invasive surgery. In this study, we investigated the aberrant methylation of promoter regions in early stage EOC through non-parametric methods, with the purpose of characterizing candidate epigenetic biomarkers. The approach was used on a cohort of early stage EOC samples, and results were compared to existing programs for differential methylation. Significant regions were then used to construct a CpG panel for stratifying EOC histotypes through predictive classification in external data. Identified promoter regions were highly reproducible across cohorts, and the constructed CpG model stratified histotypes in external cohorts through predictive classification. Comparisons against other DMP and DMR callers showed a degree of homogeneity between results but also revealed promoter regions that were overlooked despite clear signs of aberrant methylation. Finally, EOC histotypes were found to differ in their methylation distribution types, and results indicate that methods sensitive to non-normally distributed data may be poorly suited to compare groups with different distribution types. The non-parametric approach identified aberrantly methylated promoter regions that were highly reproducible across cohorts. Results from predictive classification indicate that these regions may be useful for the purpose of EOC histotype stratification.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Impact of Albuminuria-Lowering Treatments on Cardiovascular Predictive Ceramides in Diabetes: Post Hoc Analysis of the ROTATE Trials.

AIM: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of mortality in individuals with diabetes. Diabetic kidney disease, closely related to CVD risk, is prevalent in up to 40% of this population. Emerging evidence suggests ceramide lipids as accurate biomarkers for CVD. We assessed the effect of four albuminuria-lowering drugs on CVD-related ceramides in diabetes by post hoc analysis of the ROTATE trials. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Twenty six adults with type 1 (T1D) as well as 37 with type 2 diabetes (T2D) with a urine albumin-creatinine ratio (UACR) of 30-500 mg/g participated in a 4-week 4-time randomized crossover study with periods of telmisartan, empagliflozin, linagliptin and baricitinib treatment, each separated by a 4-week washout period. Blood samples were collected at the beginning and end of each period and ceramide lipids (Cer16, Cer18, Cer20, Cer22, Cer24 and Cer24:1) were measured. The effect of each treatment was evaluated using linear mixed-effect models. RESULTS: At baseline, individuals with T2D had greater levels of Cer22 and Cer24 compared to the individuals with T1D. Among the treatments, linagliptin was the only drug that demonstrated a reduction of Cer22, Cer24 and Cer24:1 from baseline by 22.6% (95% CI: -33.58; -9.79, p = 0.001), 25.7% (95% CI: -38.94; -9.69, p = 0.003) and 19.6% (95% CI: -31.34; -5.95, p = 0.007), respectively. No changes in the ceramides were observed for the other drugs. CONCLUSION: Our exploratory findings suggest that certain albuminuria-lowering drugs may affect ceramide levels as a secondary effect. However, further mechanistic investigations are needed.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

ADAM10's combined influence on the diagnostic usefulness of IL 22, IL 10, IL-17 A, and IL-17D in autism spectrum disorders: Predicted role on gut leakiness as co-morbidity.

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a complex neurodevelopmental disorder with increasing global prevalence but a lack of reliable diagnostic biomarkers. Emerging evidence suggests that immune dysregulation, gut-brain axis dysfunction, and increased intestinal permeability play key roles in ASD pathophysiology. This study investigated the combined diagnostic value of ADAM10 and cytokines (IL-10, IL-22, IL-17 A, and IL-17D). Multivariable logistic regression produces an improved ROC curve that improves diagnostic accuracy over individual markers by combining numerous predictors into a single risk score (linear predictor). The technique, which frequently raises individual marker AUCs, entails modelling a binary result, calculating the probability, and visualizing ROC based on the projected probabilities. In this case-control study, plasma levels of ADAM10, IL-10, IL-22, IL-17 A, and IL-17D were measured in 37 male children with ASD and 37 age-matched controls. Group comparisons, correlation analyses, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses, including combined ROC models, were performed. ADAM10, IL-22, and IL-17 A levels were significantly reduced in children with ASD compared to controls, whereas IL-10 and IL-17D showed no significant differences. ADAM10, IL-17 A, and IL-22 demonstrated good diagnostic performance, with AUC values of 0.886, 0.855, and 0.812, respectively. In contrast, IL-10 and IL-17D showed poor discriminatory ability, with AUC values of 0.524 and 0.599, respectively. Combined ROC analysis markedly improved diagnostic accuracy, with all panels including ADAM10 achieving AUC values above 0.90, and some reaching as high as 0.988, with high sensitivity and specificity. The combination of ADAM10 with selected cytokines significantly enhances diagnostic performance compared to individual markers, supporting a link between immune dysregulation, barrier dysfunction, and gut permeability in ASD.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

HPV circulating tumor DNA as a potential prognostic and predictive biomarker in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma: a systematic review.

PURPOSE: Human papillomavirus circulating tumor DNA (HPVctDNA) has emerged as a promising prognostic biomarker in HPV-related head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). This systematic review aimed to synthesize current evidence on the diagnostic accuracy and prognostic value of HPVctDNA in HNSCC management. MATERIAL/METHODS: We systematically reviewed a PubMed-indexed database of studies published between January 2012 and September 2025. Eligible studies were assessed for design, primary tumor site and stage, treatment modality, HPVctDNA detection method, diagnostic accuracy (sensitivity and specificity), and reported clinical endpoints. Descriptive syntheses were performed; sensitivity and specificity were standardized to proportions and summarized as median values per group. RESULTS: A total of 60 studies, including 8,234 patients were analyzed, of which 41 (68.3%) focused exclusively on oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) and 17 (28.3%) included mixed HPV-related HNSCC subsites and HPV-positive cancers of unknown primary. The median follow-up across the included studies was 23 months. Among the included studies, 19 were retrospective (31.7%) and 33 were prospective (55.0%), with a small proportion of cross-sectional and randomized clinical trials. Overall, 40 (66.7%) evaluated the role of HPVctDNA in a curative setting. Plasma was the most common sample type, analyzed in 55 studies (91.7%), while 5 studies also included saliva. Detection methods varied: 40 employed droplet digital PCR (ddPCR), 16 used quantitative PCR (qPCR) and 4 applied NGS-based assays. Most of these studies (38, 63.3%) evaluated the prognostic utility of HPVctDNA, while only 4 (6.7%) assessed HPVctDNA in a screening or diagnostic setting. Regarding diagnostic accuracy, the median sensitivity across evaluable studies was 91.1%, while the median specificity was 99.4%. In OPSCC-only cohorts, the median sensitivity and specificity were 89.4% and 99.4%, respectively. Dynamic changes in HPVctDNA levels during or after treatment were consistently associated with outcomes: clearance or sustained negativity correlated with higher response rates, improved progression-free survival and overall survival, while persistent positivity or increasing levels predicted disease progression and recurrence. CONCLUSIONS: HPVctDNA demonstrates high diagnostic and prognostic accuracy in HPV-related HNSCC, especially OPSCC, supporting its use for prognosis, treatment monitoring and early detection of recurrence. However, prospective interventional studies are still required to demonstrate that HPVctDNA-guided treatment decisions improve clinical outcomes before routine implementation.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Prognostic effect of serum glial fibrillary acidic protein and neurofilament light chain for predicting progression independent of relapse activity in multiple sclerosis: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Progression independent of relapse activity (PIRA) is increasingly appreciated as one of the important factors contributing to disability accumulation in MS. sGFAP and sNfL could represent markers reflecting two separate biological processes related to relapse-independent progression in MS. OBJECTIVE: To perform a systematic review of the literature on blood GFAP and/or NfL measured in relation to PIRA or other similar relapse-independent progression endpoints in people with MS. METHODS: PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science databases were searched from inception to 1 June 2026. The eligible studies were original human studies measuring blood GFAP and/or NfL concentrations in serum, plasma, or any other type of blood-derived material and assessing PIRA, PIRMA, CDP/CDW without relapses, relapse-free EDSS progression, non-inflammatory progression, or comparable relapse-independent disability worsening outcomes. Methodological quality was assessed according to the Newcastle-Ottawa scale and the QUIPS instrument for bias detection in the body of evidence on prognostic factors. Due to heterogeneity of outcomes, biomarker measurements and effect estimates, results were synthesized qualitatively rather than quantitatively. RESULTS: After removing duplicates, 1206 records were screened, followed by full-text review of 120 reports. A total of 18 reports were included. Overall, sGFAP was associated more frequently with PIRA or PIRA-like disability progression, particularly in cohorts with suppressed or limited overt inflammatory activity. Evidence for sNfL was more variable and context-dependent: several studies reported associations with PIRA-like or relapse-independent disability worsening when acute inflammatory activity was absent, suppressed, or analytically separated, whereas other studies reported negative or inconclusive findings. Negative or inconclusive results were reported by several articles, particularly when broad outcomes were evaluated or the study population was small. CONCLUSION: Blood GFAP and NfL give complementary but non-interchangeable information concerning PIRA in MS patients. The existing evidence base does not allow us to perform meta-analysis because of heterogeneity in terms of outcomes, standardization of biomarkers, and treatment context. Further prospective investigations with uniform criteria will be necessary for their use as biomarkers of PIRA in clinical settings.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

From prediction to mechanism: Explainable AI uncovers plasma and CSF proteomic signatures of Alzheimer's disease.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) plasma and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) proteomics can distinguish AD from cognitively normal controls, but the generalizability of machine learning performance and the recurrence of biological signals across datasets require cautious interpretation. We developed an explainable artificial intelligence framework spanning two fluids and four ADNI proteomic datasets, covering 2082 modality specific samples, all analysed internally within ADNI. Phase 1 analysed plasma using a 119 analyte NULISA and targeted UPENN panel (n = 727; 216 CE, 511 controls). Phase 2 extended the analysis to CSF using SOMAscan7k, TMT-MS and targeted SET2, with Elecsys Aβ42, Aβ40, total tau and p-tau181 as anchor biomarkers. Only SOMAscan was subject-independent relative to Phase 1 plasma; TMT-MS and SET2 overlapped with Phase 1 for 96.0% and 97.7% of subjects and therefore are not independent replication cohorts. Under subject-level splits with fold internal preprocessing, we compared Elastic Net, Explainable Boosting Machines and gradient boosted trees with SHAP-based explanations. Among the candidate pipelines, we selected the pipeline with the highest held-out test ROC AUC for each platform; the selected values were 0.927 in plasma and 0.954-0.973 across the three CSF datasets. Because the same held out test performance was used for pipeline selection and headline reporting, these are optimistically selected single-holdout estimates, not unbiased estimates of generalizable or clinical performance. Explanations identified five recurring biological axes within ADNI: cholinergic (ACHE), tau/14-3-3 (YWHAG, YWHAZ, YWHAB, YWHAE), neuro-axonal (NEFL, NEFH), microglial/complement (CHIT1, SMOC1, CHI3L1, C7, CFH) and synaptic (NPTXR, NPTX2, DLG4, SYT5, VSNL1, ELAVL2). CSF analyses showed synaptic vesicle-cycle enrichment (q = 2 × 10-6), and CSF YWHAG correlated strongly with total tau (ρ = 0.87). Cross-fluid directional concordance was modest overall (54-57%) but increased to 73-80% among mapped analyte/protein rows reaching q < 0.05 in CSF. These findings provide hypothesis-generating, internally supported evidence within ADNI. Independent external cohorts with locked pipelines are required to evaluate generalizable performance and biological reproducibility; the overlapping TMT-MS and SET2 analyses should not be interpreted as independent replication.

Alzheimer Disease↗

PubMed2026

Analyzing salinity tolerance in grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella): Insights from genome-wide association study and genomic selection.

Grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) is one of the most widely cultured freshwater fish species globally. However, the expansion of its farming scale faces severe limitation owing to freshwater scarcity; therefore, the development of strains with greater salinity tolerance is key for expanding production using brackish water resources. To investigate the genetic basis of salinity tolerance in grass carp, a genome-wide association study (GWAS) was conducted using 200 individuals representing extreme phenotypes, namely salinity-tolerant and salinity-sensitive groups. In total, 17 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) related to salinity tolerance were detected, which were distributed across 11 chromosomes. Through gene annotation, 38 candidate genes were obtained from these loci. Enrichment analysis revealed these candidate genes are primarily implicated in key biological processes, including osmotic regulation, energy metabolism, and stress responses. Analyses of different SNP densities revealed that the 5 K SNP density panel can balance prediction accuracy and computational efficiency. The BayesA model achieved the highest prediction accuracy under the GWAS_Evenly selection strategy, with substantial reductions in mean absolute error and mean square error. This study reveals the genetic mechanisms of salinity tolerance in grass carp, which might be optimized through genomic selection, and provides insights for selectively breeding new varieties with greater salinity tolerance.

Animals↗

PubMed2026

ORBIT: Oncogenic Representation Learning via Bi-Prototype Contrastive Learning in Hyperbolic Space for cancer driver gene identification.

Accurate identification of cancer driver genes is crucial for precision oncology but remains challenging due to the complexity of integrating heterogeneous data and modeling dynamic biological systems. To address these limitations, we propose ORBIT (Oncogenic Representation Learning via Bi-Prototype Contrastive Learning in Hyperbolic Space). Our framework synergistically fuses multi-omics profiles with functional network data using a context-adaptive graph reweighting mechanism to capture cancer-specific dynamics. The model employs a bi-prototype contrastive learning strategy within hyperbolic space, which aligns gene representations around distinct driver and non-driver semantic anchors while preserving the intrinsic hierarchy of biological networks. Comprehensive evaluations demonstrate that ORBIT achieves highly competitive stability in pan-cancer analysis while consistently outperforming state-of-the-art methods in cancer-specific predictions. Furthermore, functional enrichment analysis confirms that the model effectively segregates core cancer pathways, and drug sensitivity profiling validates the clinical relevance of the identified drivers. By integrating hyperbolic geometry with context-adaptive learning, ORBIT offers a robust and interpretable paradigm for precision medicine. The source codes and datasets are publicly accessible at https://github.com/spcho-dev/ORBIT.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Stage-specific ROMO1 in rheumatoid arthritis: predictive immune insights into the MIF pathway and HLA-DR/IL2RA axis via integrated GWAS, transcriptomic, single-cell, and spatial profiling.

Emerging evidence links reactive oxygen species modulator 1 (ROMO1), a key mitochondrial ROS regulator, to rheumatoid arthritis (RA) pathogenesis. However, its exact mechanism remains elusive given the conflicting evidence about its specific function. We used a four-level integrative framework combining multi-omics data and literature‑supported mechanistic inference. At the genetic level, Mendelian randomization (MR) was performed to explore potential causal relationships between ROMO1, IL2RA, HLA-DR, MIF, and RA risk, followed by differential expression analysis and machine learning-based feature selection to identify key mROS genes. The temporal expression dynamics of ROMO1 were assessed in RA progression. At the cellular and tissue levels, we integrated single-cell RNA sequencing and spatial transcriptomics to map cell-type-specific expression and synovial localization of ROMO1-related immune cells and pathways. Finally, our multi-omics findings were contextualized with literature-supported mechanistic inference. (1) MR results were consistent with a potential protective effect of ROMO1 on RA (OR = 0.52) and its potential regulation of risk factors IL2RA (OR = 0.46) and HLA-DR (OR = 0.40). Conversely, IL2RA (OR = 1.42), HLA-DR (OR = 1.88), and MIF (OR = 1.17) were positively associated with RA risk. Additionally, ROMO1 was identified as a top candidate diagnostic predictor with stage-specific dynamics: downregulated in the early but upregulated in the late/remission stages. (2) Single-cell RNA sequencing showed ROMO1's cell-specific expression in CD14+ HLA-DR+ CD74+ monocytes and CD4+ IL2RA+ T cells. Cell communication analysis further suggested that these cells may participate in MIF pathway regulation. Spatial transcriptomics subsequently identified that ROMO1-related cells localized to synovial pathological regions, with MIF pathway changes correlated with RA progression. (3) Finally, literature-supported mechanistic inference suggests that ROMO1 may modulate mROS levels to promote anti-inflammatory M2 macrophage polarization, which could theoretically contribute to reduced systemic inflammation and the alleviation of multi-organ decline in RA. This integrated multi-omics investigation, supported by literature-based mechanistic inference, suggests ROMO1 as a stage-dependent biomarker candidate and potential immune regulator in RA.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Prognostic Value of Frailty in Aortic Surgery: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Comparing Frailty Assessment Tools.

BACKGROUND: Frailty is increasingly recognized as an important determinant of outcomes after aortic vascular surgery, but assessment methods vary substantially and the optimal tool for risk stratification remains uncertain. This systematic review and meta-analysis evaluated the prognostic value of preoperative frailty and compared the predictive performance of different frailty instruments in aortic surgery. METHODS: PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Library were searched from inception to April 27, 2026. Eligible studies included patients undergoing open, endovascular, or hybrid aortic procedures involving abdominal, thoracic, thoracoabdominal, arch, and proximal aortic diseases, including aneurysms and dissections, assessed frailty preoperatively, and reported postoperative outcomes. RESULTS: Thirty studies comprising 419,459 patients were included. Frailty was associated with higher early mortality (odds ratio [OR] 2.20; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.54-3.14) and late mortality (hazard ratio 2.18; 95% CI 1.64-2.90). Frail patients also had increased risks of major complications (OR 2.52; 95% CI 1.22-5.19), acute kidney injury (OR 1.64; 95% CI 1.34-2.02), and nonhome discharge (OR 5.50; 95% CI 3.05-9.92). Associations were consistent across surgical approaches and aortic segments. Judgment-based or phenotype-like tools yielded higher effect estimates than deficit-accumulation indices, although differences were not statistically significant; among index-based tools, Modified Frailty Index (mFI)-11 outperformed mFI-5. CONCLUSION: Preoperative frailty strongly predicts mortality, morbidity, and loss of functional independence after open, endovascular, and hybrid aortic surgery across different aortic segments and pathologies, including aneurysmal and dissecting aortic disease. Routine frailty assessment may improve risk stratification and perioperative decision-making.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Exploring China's Clean Air Act and associated cardiovascular disease risk: a prospective, quasi-experimental, and causal inference modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Substantial improvements in air quality have been recorded following the implementation of China's Clean Air Act (CCAA) in 2013. However, the association between CCAA implementation and individual-level cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk remains unclear. We aimed to examine the long-term association between CCAA implementation and individual-level predicted CVD risk. METHODS: In this prospective, quasi-experimental study, we used data from the China Kadoorie Biobank, a prospective cohort study that recruited participants from five urban and five rural areas across China between 2004 and 2008, with three resurveys conducted after the baseline survey (in 2008, 2013-14, and 2020-21). We included 34 862 individuals (mean age 51·3 years) who participated in at least one resurvey and had no history of CVD at baseline. Participants were classified into intervention (n=25 497) and control (n=9365) groups based on the local government's targets for particulate matter reduction. We estimated the 10-year risk of incident CVD morbidity or mortality using a validated risk prediction model. We used a difference-in-difference model to assess the long-term association between CCAA implementation and predicted risk, with adjustments made for regional confounders and individual-level characteristics, including demographics, lifestyle factors, medical history, and indoor air pollution exposure. The relationship between changes in long-term exposure to PM2·5, PM10, and O3 and predicted risk after CCAA implementation was analysed using a linear model. The estimated risk differences associated with air pollutant changes were estimated based on the magnitude of changes and their corresponding effect sizes. FINDINGS: After the CCAA was implemented, PM2·5 and PM10 concentrations declined in both groups, but O3 concentrations increased. The intervention group showed a 3·95% (95% CI 3·18-4·72%) lower increase in predicted risk than the control group, with larger estimated differences under stricter enforcement. Between 2013 and 2021, each 10 μg/m3 change in PM2·5 concentration was positively associated with a 1·80 (1·34-2·27) percentage point change in predicted CVD risk, whereas each 10 μg/m3 change in PM10 concentration was associated with a 1·24 (0·84-1·63) percentage point change and each 10 μg/m3 change in O3 concentration with a 0·58 (0·33-0·83) percentage point change. Overall, the observed changes in air pollutants during the study period were associated with an average 6·6 percentage point reduction in predicted CVD risk. INTERPRETATION: The CCAA and improved air quality were associated with a slower increase in predicted CVD risk, supporting the necessity for stricter, multipollutant air quality policies to maximise public health benefits. FUNDING: National Natural Science Foundation of China, Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, Noncommunicable Chronic Diseases-National Science and Technology Major Project, National Key R&D Program of China, Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology, and UK Wellcome Trust.

Journal Article↗

PubMed2026

Diagnostic performance of machine learning models for malignant and non-malignant pleural effusion: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Accurately distinguishing malignant pleural effusion (MPE) from non-malignant pleural effusion is clinically important, but the generalisability and methodological quality of machine-learning (ML) models remain uncertain. METHODS: We searched eight databases to 23 April 2026. Diagnostic performance was pooled using random-effects and Reitsma bivariate models, and study quality was assessed using PROBAST+AI. RESULTS: Forty-two studies were included; 17 contributed to the AUC meta-analysis and 14 to the bivariate analysis. The pooled AUC was 0.90 (95 % CI 0.85-0.94; 95 % prediction interval 0.62-0.98), with sensitivity of 0.80 (95 % CI 0.77-0.83) and specificity of 0.87 (95 % CI 0.79-0.92). Only nine studies reported external, temporal or independent validation. Externally validated studies had a lower pooled AUC than studies without external validation (0.83 vs 0.92), with lower specificity observed in the two externally validated studies contributing sensitivity and specificity data. All 42 development assessments had high overall quality concerns, and all 42 model evaluations were judged at high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: ML models showed good apparent accuracy for distinguishing MPE from non-MPE, but the evidence was limited by substantial heterogeneity, high risk of bias and scarce external validation. The pooled estimates reflect the average performance of different selected models rather than the expected accuracy of a single clinical test. ML models should be regarded as adjuncts to existing diagnostic pathways until they are confirmed by rigorous multicentre prospective external validation and clinical-impact studies.

Humans↗