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PubMed2002

A nomogram to predict the probability of live birth after clomiphene citrate induction of ovulation in normogonadotropic oligoamenorrheic infertility.

OBJECTIVE: To establish whether initial screening characteristics of normogonadotropic anovulatory infertile women can aid in predicting live birth after induction of ovulation with clomiphene citrate (CC). DESIGN: Prospective longitudinal single-center study. SETTING: Specialist academic fertility unit. PATIENT(S): Two hundred fifty-nine couples with a history of infertility, oligoamenorrhea, and normal follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) concentrations who have not been previously treated with any ovulation-induction medication. INTERVENTION(S): 50, 100, or 150 mg of oral CC per day, for 5 subsequent days per cycle. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Conception leading to live birth after CC administration. RESULT(S): After receiving CC, 98 (38%) women conceived, leading to live birth. The cumulative live birth rate within 12 months was 42% for the total study population and 56% for the ovulatory women who had received CC. Factors predicting the chances for live birth included free androgen index (testosterone/sex hormone-binding globulin ratio), body mass index, cycle history (oligomenorrhea versus amenorrhea), and the woman's age. CONCLUSION(S): It is possible to predict the individual chances of live birth after CC administration using two distinct prediction models combined in a nomogram. Applying this nomogram in the clinic may be a step forward in optimizing the decision-making process in the treatment of normogonadotropic anovulatory infertility. Alternative first line of treatment options could be considered for some women who have limited chances for success.

Abortion, Spontaneous↗
PubMed1991

[Comparative multifactorial analysis of combined administration of injection and peroral forms of an antibiotic with a microbial immunomodulator in experimental anthrax].

Comparative efficacy of the use of injection and oral dosage forms of rifampicin in the subtherapeutic doses in combination with peptidoglycan , an immunomodulator of microbial origin, was studied in respect to experimental anthracic infection with application of multifactorial analysis. It was shown that the antibiotic and immunomodulator had a pronounced synergistic effect. Polynomial statistic models were developed and nomograms or equal level curves defining the survival rate and average life-span (ALS) of the experimental animals within a wide range of the antibiotic and immunomodulator doses and the peptidoglycan dosing time were plotted. The combined use of the injection rifampicin in the subtherapeutic doses and the immunomodulator provided a significant increase in the survival rate and ALS, whereas the use of the oral antibiotic in combination with the immunomodulator increased only the ALS and not the survival rate. Multifactorial analysis proved to be an optimal methodical approach to comparative study of various antibiotic dosage forms used in combination with immunomodulators under experimental conditions.

Adjuvants, Immunologic↗
PubMed2025

Comprehensive investigation identifies CPSF3 as a novel prognostic and oncogenic biomarker in bladder cancer.

BACKGROUND: Bladder cancer (BC) remains a prevalent malignancy worldwide, with rising incidence rates each year. Despite progress in therapeutic strategies, many patients suffer recurrence or progression, emphasizing the urgent need for novel prognostic biomarkers and therapeutic targets. This research evaluated the prognostic relevance and functional role of Cleavage and Polyadenylation Specificity Factor 3 (CPSF3) in BC. METHODS: We analyzed CPSF3 expression using The Cancer Genome Atlas data and immunohistochemistry on a cohort of 203 BC patients. A nomogram incorporating CPSF3 expression was developed based on CPSF3 expression for prediction of overall survival and disease-free survival. Immune infiltration analyses and transcriptome sequencing were performed to explore underlying biological mechanisms. In vitro and in vivo experiments were utilized to examine the results of CPSF3 silencing on bladder cancer cell growth, colony-forming ability and cell cycle transitions. RESULTS: Elevated CPSF3 expression was significantly linked to unfavorable overall survival and disease-free survival both in TCGA datasets and our cohort. The CPSF3-based nomogram outperformed conventional prognostic models. CPSF3 expression was associated with tumor-infiltrating immune cells and immune checkpoint markers. Enrichment analysis revealed CPSF3 enrichment in cell cycle-related pathways. Suppression of CPSF3 expression led to marked reductions in cell proliferation, colony formation, tumor growth in animal models and inhibited G1 to S phase progression. CONCLUSION: CPSF3 is a promising prognostic biomarker for BC and may play a crucial role in BC progression. Incorporating CPSF3 into clinical prognostic models may enhance prediction of patient outcomes. CPSF3 may represent a promising therapeutic target for BC management.

Bladder cancer↗
PubMed1976

Correction of stereological parameters from biased samples on nucleated particle phases. I. Nuclear volume fraction.

Stereologists are aware that the experimental evaluation of component volume fractions and surface-to-volume ratios are subject to systematic errors whenever the requirements for cell identification impose the necessity for component-biased sectioning. Mathematical corrections of biased volume proportion data have recently been published; these corrections assume that the components under analysis are spherical, and that the nucleated particle phase is monodispersed. In this report, general methods for obtaining corrections of biased nuclear volume fraction data are set out for polydispersed phases of nucleated particles, in terms of the relevant shapes and joint size distribution of nucleus and cell; the scope and limitations of these methods are thereby discussed. Explicit corrections of an immediate applicability are obtained, together with their standard errors, for monodispersed phases where nucleus and cell are two dissimilar biaxial ellipsoids (spheroids). When nucleus and cell are two concentric and similar convex bodies of a certain class--to which triaxial ellipsoids belong--the corrections are shown to be very simple. The corrections for the spheroid-spheroid systems are easily accessible with the aid of a small programmable calculator, whereas those for the sphere-spheroid models are directly obtainable from two nomograms.

Cell Nucleus↗
PubMed2000

Prediction of survival for older hospitalized patients: the HELP survival model. Hospitalized Elderly Longitudinal Project.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a model estimating the survival time of hospitalized persons aged 80 years and older. DESIGN: A prospective cohort study with mortality follow-up using the National Death Index. SETTING: Four teaching hospitals in the US. PARTICIPANTS: Hospitalized patients enrolled between January 1993 and November 1994 in the Hospitalized Elderly Longitudinal Project (HELP). Patients were excluded if their length of hospital stay was 48 hours or less or if admitted electively for planned surgery. MEASUREMENTS: A log-normal model of survival time up to 711 days was developed with the following variables: patient demographics, disease category, nursing home residence, severity of physiologic imbalance, chart documentation of weight loss, current quality of life, exercise capacity, and functional status. We assessed whether model accuracy could be improved by including symptoms of depression or history of recent fall, serum albumin, physician's subjective estimate of prognosis, and physician and patient preferences for general approach to care. RESULTS: A total of 1266 patients were enrolled over a 10-month period, (median age 84.9, 61% female, 68% with one or more dependency), and 505 (40%) died during an average follow-up of more than 2 years. Important prognostic factors included the Acute Physiology Score of APACHE III collected on the third hospital day, modified Glasgow coma score, major diagnosis (ICU categories together, congestive heart failure, cancer, orthopedic, and all other), age, activities of daily living, exercise capacity, chart documentation of weight loss, and global quality of life. The Somers' Dxy for a model including these factors was 0.48 (equivalent to a receiver-operator curve (ROC) area of 0.74, suggesting good discrimination). Bootstrap estimation indicated good model validation (corrected Dxy of 0.46, ROC of 0.73). A nomogram based on this log-normal model is presented to facilitate calculation of median survival time and 10th and 90th percentile of survival time. A count of geriatric syndromes or comorbidities did not add explanatory power to the model, nor did the hospital of patient recruitment, depression, or the patient preferences for general approach to care. The physician's perception of the patient's preferences and the physician's subjective estimate of the patient's prognosis improved the estimate of survival time significantly. CONCLUSIONS: Accurate estimation of length of life for older hospitalized persons may be calculated using a limited amount of clinical information available from the medical chart plus a brief interview with the patient or surrogate. The accuracy of this model can be improved by including measures of the physician's perception of the patient's preferences for care and the physician's subjective estimate of prognosis.

Activities of Daily Living↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Evaluation of a multivariate prostate-specific antigen and percentage of free prostate-specific antigen logistic regression model in the diagnosis of prostate cancer.

The use of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) in the diagnosis of prostate cancer is controversial due to false-positive results caused by benign prostatic hyperplasia. Several groups have suggested the usefulness of the percentage of free PSA (%fPSA) in patients with PSA levels between 4 and 10 microg/l. Based on previously obtained results, biopsy is carried out in our hospital if the PSA is greater than 10 microg/l or if the %fPSA is lower than 20% and PSA is between 4-10 microg/l. In this study, we have compared these results with those obtained with a logistic regression model based on the determination of PSA and %fPSA. The diagnostic efficacy of the logistic regression model is greater than that of the currently used model. The posterior construction of a nomogram based on the data obtained greatly facilitates the application of the logistic regression model.

Aged↗
PubMed1998

Risk factors for in-hospital nonhemorrhagic stroke in patients with acute myocardial infarction treated with thrombolysis: results from GUSTO-I.

BACKGROUND: Nonhemorrhagic stroke occurs in 0.1% to 1.3% of patients with acute myocardial infarction who are treated with thrombolysis, with substantial associated mortality and morbidity. Little is known about the risk factors for its occurrence. METHODS AND RESULTS: We studied the 247 patients with nonhemorrhagic stroke who were randomly assigned to one of four thrombolytic regimens within 6 hours of symptom onset in the GUSTO-I trial. We assessed the univariable and multivariable baseline risk factors for nonhemorrhagic stroke and created a scoring nomogram from the baseline multivariable modeling. We used time-dependent Cox modeling to determine multivariable in-hospital predictors of nonhemorrhagic stroke. Baseline and in-hospital predictors were then combined to determine the overall predictors of nonhemorrhagic stroke. Of the 247 patients, 42 (17%) died and another 98 (40%) were disabled by 30-day follow-up. Older age was the most important baseline clinical predictor of nonhemorrhagic stroke, followed by higher heart rate, history of stroke or transient ischemic attack, diabetes, previous angina, and history of hypertension. These factors remained statistically significant predictors in the combined model, along with worse Killip class, coronary angiography, bypass surgery, and atrial fibrillation/flutter. CONCLUSIONS: Nonhemorrhagic stroke is a serious event in patients with acute myocardial infarction who are treated with thrombolytic, antithrombin, and antiplatelet therapy. We developed a simple nomogram that can predict the risk of nonhemorrhagic stroke on the basis of baseline clinical characteristics. Prophylactic anticoagulation may be an important treatment strategy for patients with high probability for nonhemorrhagic stroke, but further study is needed.

Age Factors↗
PubMed1995

Validation of the S and C components of the three-process model of alertness regulation.

This paper summarizes work to validate and develop further the homeostatic and circadian component of a quantitative (computerized) three-process model for predicting alertness/sleepiness in daily living. The model uses sleep data as input and contains circadian and homeostatic components (amount of prior wake and amount of prior sleep), which are summed to yield predicted alertness on a scale between 1 and 16. The present validation was carried out using regression analysis, with sleepiness-related electroencephalographic parameters (alpha power density) from field and laboratory studies as criteria. The results showed that variations in alpha-power density in truck drivers, train drivers and laboratory subjects could be predicted with considerable accuracy (r2 > 0.70) from the model, as could subjective alertness. Levels < or = 7 on the 16-point scale were defined as critically low alertness. The paper also describes a simplified, graphic, paper version of the computation model, visualized as a two-dimensional "alertness nomogram". It is suggested that the studied components of the model may serve as tools for evaluating work/rest schedules in terms of sleep-related safety risks.

Adult↗
PubMed1995

A nomogram for predicting optimal dosage of cyclosporine in renal transplant patients: taking physiological factors into consideration for regimen during immunosuppressive therapy.

We constructed a nomogram for determining the optimal regimen of cyclosporine (CyA), based on physiological changes that occur during immunosuppressive therapy. The nomogram consists of a fixed model and a variable model. In the fixed model, the oral dose of CyA (D, mg/kg) is given by the multiple linear function of logarithmic CyA trough level (TL, ng/ml), the surrogate apparent total body clearance of CyA (CL/fsu, l/h/kg, being equal to D/TL/12), and the erythrocyte-to-plasma distribution ratio of CyA (CyA-EP), as defined by: D = 4.938 x log(TL) + 1.5037 x CL/fsu - 0.0326 x CyA-EP - 10.7156. In the variable model, the CL/fsu is given by the CyA-EP and the patient's intrinsic parameters (P1, P2), using a nonlinear equation: CL/fsu = P1 x exp(P2 x CyA-EP)/CyA-EP. An optimal CyA dose to maintain a desired trough level was calculated, and the validity of the nomogram was found satisfactory for clinical use. This offers a very concise and practical method for the therapeutic monitoring of CyA. Because the pharmacokinetics of CyA depends on physiological changes due to several disease states, and because the CyA-EP reflects the pharmacokinetics of CyA and the patient's disease state, the proposed nomogram is believed to provide an optimal dosage adjustment, taking physiological factors into consideration.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1997

Screening and treatment of bacterial vaginosis during pregnancy: a model for determining benefit.

Bacterial vaginosis is associated with an increased risk of preterm birth. The treatment of bacterial vaginosis has recently been shown to decrease the risk of preterm delivery, especially in high-risk populations. However, the benefit of routine screening and treatment in the general population is uncertain. Using the information from several recent studies, a graph and nomogram generated from a mathematical model allow the obstetrician to determine the benefit of routine screening and treatment of bacterial vaginosis in his or her obstetrical population, depending on the prevalence of bacterial vaginosis and the total preterm delivery rate in that obstetrician's practice. If the prevalence of bacterial vaginosis and the incidence of preterm delivery are low, then routine screening would be expected to prevent small numbers of preterm births, and therefore may not be cost-effective.

Cost-Benefit Analysis↗
PubMed1998

A model for collaboration in quality improvement projects: implementing a weight-based heparin dosing nomogram across an integrated health care delivery system.

BACKGROUND: At Aurora Health Care, an integrated delivery system based in Milwaukee, a system-level clinical quality improvement department was established in 1995 to facilitate collaboration on clinical quality improvement (QI) initiatives. THE COLLABORATIVE MODEL: A model was developed to use expertise within the system and avoid unnecessary duplication of efforts, while maintaining buy-in for the project's interventions at the point of service delivery. It was believed that a single team could design the improvement efforts or guidelines, and then work at a more local level with a different group of people to implement the processes. APPLYING THE MODEL TO THE HEPARIN QI PROJECT: Anticoagulation with heparin is considered the mainstay of treatment for pulmonary embolism and deep venous thrombosis. However, a large gap was found between present anticoagulation practices and published best practice in regards to achieving a key process measure. To reduce the overall time to achieving effective anticoagulation, a system-level team created an intervention primarily consisting of a preprinted order sheet, including the weight-based heparin dosing nomogram, and an education plan for physicians and other health care professionals. Significant improvement was observed at all pilot sites with overall rates of adequate anticoagulation within the first 24 hours improving from 73% to 95%. DISCUSSION: The system was able to standardize care at four of its five major hospitals and provide for better patient outcomes to a larger segment of the community, and then to replicate the heparin project to four additional sites during a six-month period. This model has been successfully applied to other quality improvement projects.

Anticoagulants↗
PubMed2001

Revisiting sonographic abdominal circumference measurements: a comparison of outer centiles with established nomograms.

OBJECTIVE: To construct an institution-specific nomogram of fetal abdominal circumference measurements and determine whether previously published nomograms correctly categorize our population's outer centiles. DESIGN: Using cross-sectional data from a database of sonographic circumference measurements, a nomogram for abdominal circumference measurements was created by modeling the mean and standard deviation separately. The adequacy of the nomogram was confirmed by assessing the normal distribution of data, verifying goodness-of-fit, and checking residuals. Outer centiles were compared with those from other published nomograms. RESULTS: The new nomogram for fetal abdominal circumference measurements from 10 070 fetuses provided sufficient data to derive values for the 5th, 10th, 50th, 90th and 95th centiles based on gestational age. Comparisons with other published nomograms indicated that the false-negative rates for classifying our population as < 10th centile or > 90th centile ranged from 11.3% to 90.5% and from 0 to 66.4%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Institution-specific nomograms of fetal abdominal circumference measurements are important to avoid incorrect categorization of outer centiles.

Abdomen↗
PubMed1991

Nomogram for dosing warfarin at steady state.

The predictive performance of a nomogram for dosing warfarin was compared with that of a computer program. The nomogram and the computer program were developed from the log-linear model describing warfarin pharmacodynamics at steady state. The nomogram's dose-response curves were generated by using previously reported pharmacodynamic and pharmacokinetic values for an outpatient population receiving warfarin. The series of dose-response curves were plotted by altering the pharmacodynamic values over a range of 3 standard deviations. The ability of the nomogram to predict the steady-state prothrombin time ratio (PTR) after an adjustment in the dosage of warfarin was evaluated, and the results were compared with those of a commercially available program involving Bayesian regression. Data for 65 outpatients were evaluated. The mean +/- S.D. nomogram-predicted, computer-predicted, and measured PTRs were 1.63 +/- 0.27, 1.64 +/- 0.24, and 1.66 +/- 0.23, respectively. The mean prediction errors for the nomogram and the computer program were -0.037 and -0.026, respectively, and the mean percent absolute prediction errors were 11.6% and 11.0%, respectively. Neither method was biased, and differences between the results for the two methods were not significant. The predictive performance of the warfarin dosing nomogram was comparable to that of the computer program.

Bayes Theorem↗
PubMed1983

Diagnostic X-ray shielding design based on an empirical model of photon attenuation.

A series of nomograms that simplify determination of diagnostic X-ray shielding requirements with lead are presented. All recommendations of the NCRP, except that to "add one half value layer" in determining secondary barriers, were followed in the production of these curves. For secondary barriers, the shielding required to reduce the weekly exposure to the applicable MPD has been determined. This eliminates the over-shielding inherent in the "add one HVL" approximation and allows a variety of more cost effective materials to be considered for secondary barriers.

Hospital Departments↗
PubMed1995

Apnea testing in suspected brain dead children--physiological and mathematical modelling.

OBJECTIVE: To study the validity and safety of the traditional apnea test in children, and to evaluate a mathematical equation estimating the hemodynamic response to the apnea test. DESIGN: A prospective clinical study. SETTING: Pediatric ICU. PATIENTS AND PARTICIPANTS: 38 pediatric patients suffering severe brain injury aged 2 months to 17 years, undergoing apnea testing for brain death. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: Apnea tests were performed 61 times (once in 19 patients, twice in 15, and 3 times in 4 patients). Mean PaCO2 was 41.1 +/- 10.6 mmHg before apnea and increased to 68.0 +/- 17.6 at 5 min. PaCO2 increased to 81.8 +/- 20.1 and 86.0 +/- 25.6 at 10 and 15 min, respectively. There was a mean PaCO2 increase by 5.38 +/- 1.4 mmHg/min in the first 5 min, and 2.75 +/- 0.5 mmHg/min during the next 5 min. We found a statistically significant (p < 0.05) linear relationship between the natural logarithm of PaCO2, time, and the logarithm of the initial level of PaCO2. An inverse linear relationship (p < 0.05) was found between systemic mean arterial pressure (MAP) and initial level of PaCO2 presented as mathematical correlations and nomograms. CONCLUSIONS: By using our model for predicting MAP and PCO2 prior to apnea testing, hemodynamic embarrassment can be anticipated and prevented, thus allowing a safer procedure in the detection of brain death. Despite the fact that continuous cardiorespiratory monitoring is important, hemodynamic disturbances can be estimated before the apnea test, thus allowing a safer approach to brain death detection.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1995

[A nomogram of duplex ultrasound quantification of peripheral arterial stenoses. Studies of the cardiovascular model and in angiography patients].

BACKGROUND AND METHODS: Blood flow velocity measurements were performed with duplex ultrasound in vitro (flow phantom) and in 62 patients who underwent angiography due to peripheral vascular disease. RESULTS: Intrastenotic peak systolic velocity (PSV) divided by proximally recorded PSV (peak velocity ratio, PVR) exhibited a strong correlation with percent diameter reduction: r2 = 0.86; N = 106 stenoses. A PVR value > or = 2.4 indicated a more than 50% stenosis with a sensitivity of 87% and a specificity of 94%. Calculation of PVR may normalize for patient variation and allow noninvasive quantification of lumen narrowing with high sensitivity and specificity. The intraobserver variability (95% CI) of stenosis quantification using PVR values was 10%. A nomogram simplifies estimation of lumen narrowing after measurement of intrastenotic and proximal PSV values. CONCLUSION: Quantification of peripheral artery stenoses can be performed easily and noninvasively with duplex ultrasound using the peak velocity ratio (PVR).

Aged↗
PubMed2000

Prediction of 1-year survival after thrombolysis for acute myocardial infarction in the global utilization of streptokinase and TPA for occluded coronary arteries trial.

BACKGROUND: When a patient survives thrombolysis for acute myocardial infarction, little information from large studies exists from which to estimate prognosis during follow-up visits. METHODS AND RESULTS: Baseline, in-hospital, and later survival data were collected from 41 021 patients enrolled in Global Utilization of Streptokinase and TPA for Occluded Coronary Arteries, a randomized trial of 4 thrombolytic-heparin regimens with standard aspirin and beta-blockade. Cox proportional hazards models were developed to predict 1-year survival in 30-day survivors (n=37 869) from baseline clinical and ECG factors and in-hospital factors; a combined model then was developed (C-index 0.800). The model was simplified into a nomogram to predict individual outcomes (C-index 0.754). Factors reflecting demographics (advanced age, lighter weight), larger infarctions (higher Killip class, lower blood pressure, faster heart rate, longer QRS duration), cardiac risk (smoking, hypertension, prior cerebrovascular disease), and arrhythmia were important predictors of death between 30 days and 1 year. Black race was associated with a substantial increase in risk after considering other factors. Revascularization was associated with reduced risk between 30 days and 1 year. CONCLUSIONS: When evaluating a patient who has survived acute infarction treated with thrombolysis, clinicians can estimate the likelihood of survival from factors easily measured during admission. Although many risk factors clearly relate to age, left ventricular dysfunction, or clinical instability, black race is an unexplained risk factor requiring further examination.

Aged↗
PubMed2024

The prognostic significance of ubiquitination-related genes in multiple myeloma by bioinformatics analysis.

BACKGROUND: Immunoregulatory drugs regulate the ubiquitin-proteasome system, which is the main treatment for multiple myeloma (MM) at present. In this study, bioinformatics analysis was used to construct the risk model and evaluate the prognostic value of ubiquitination-related genes in MM. METHODS AND RESULTS: The data on ubiquitination-related genes and MM samples were downloaded from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) databases. The consistent cluster analysis and ESTIMATE algorithm were used to create distinct clusters. The MM prognostic risk model was constructed through single-factor and multiple-factor analysis. The ROC curve was plotted to compare the survival difference between high- and low-risk groups. The nomogram was used to validate the predictive capability of the risk model. A total of 87 ubiquitination-related genes were obtained, with 47 genes showing high expression in the MM group. According to the consistent cluster analysis, 4 clusters were determined. The immune infiltration, survival, and prognosis differed significantly among the 4 clusters. The tumor purity was higher in clusters 1 and 3 than in clusters 2 and 4, while the immune score and stromal score were lower in clusters 1 and 3. The proportion of B cells memory, plasma cells, and T cells CD4 na&#xef;ve was the lowest in cluster 4. The model genes KLHL24, HERC6, USP3, TNIP1, and CISH were highly expressed in the high-risk group. AICAr and BMS.754,807 exhibited higher drug sensitivity in the low-risk group, whereas Bleomycin showed higher drug sensitivity in the high-risk group. The nomogram of the risk model demonstrated good efficacy in predicting the survival of MM patients using TCGA and GEO datasets. CONCLUSIONS: The risk model constructed by ubiquitination-related genes can be effectively used to predict the prognosis of MM patients. KLHL24, HERC6, USP3, TNIP1, and CISH genes in MM warrant further investigation as therapeutic targets and to combat drug resistance.

Humans↗