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PubMed1986

Regional and urban population size weights in Saudi Arabia, 1962-1974.

"The aim of this paper is to study the development of population weights for regions and urban centres in Saudi Arabia through the period 1962-1974. In order to achieve this aim some non-parametric statistical rules have been used such as rank-size rule and the four-city index. The results show non-balanced distribution of population on both regional and urban scales. The concentration of people in urban centres is more pronounced than the concentration in regions. This is due to internal and external movement of population towards large-sized urban centres."

Asia↗
PubMed1995

Population concentration in less developed countries: new evidence.

Economic theory associates the increase in population concentration, i.e., the proportion of national population residing in the core economic region, with scale and agglomeration economies. Wheaton and Shishido (1981) estimated that these persist until real per capita national income reaches 5000 1985 US dollars (USD). After this point in a country's economic development, they predicted, population redistribution towards the core region will cease and the proportion of national population residing in the core region will commence to decline. The experience of developed countries (DCs) in the 1970s and 1980s broadly conformed to this pattern, albeit with exceptions. Evidence from less developed countries (LDCs) through the 1980 round of censuses led Vining (1986) to propose a weakened version of the USD 5000 rule in which this point is characterized only by a slowing of rate of population re-distribution towards the core, not by an outright reversal. This paper updates previously reported trends in population redistribution in LDCs and reports on many new countries. Taken as a whole, post-war data reinforce the need for caution of the sort expressed by Vining. While there is a weak negative correlation between the rate of net migration into the core region and per capita income, the share of population residing in the core region may continue to rise even when per capita income has grown to well beyond USD 5000.

Demography↗
PubMed1996

The floating population: an informal process of urbanisation in China.

"This paper attempts to employ substantial source materials to shed light on the characteristics of population migration in a centrally planned society that is in the process of transforming to a market economy. In order to compare rural-urban migration in China with that in other developing countries, the data on 1985-1990 interprovincial population migration have been analysed. Some demographic research techniques on population migration, such as the impact on the place of origin and the place of destination, have been employed to assess the influence of rural-urban migration on China's long-term economic development. Economic betterment appears to be the sole motivation of rural population migration in China."

Asia↗
PubMed1996

Modelling urban-rural population growth in China.

"The population of China is still growing despite a dramatic decline in fertility in the past two decades. There are marked urban-rural differentials in fertility and, as a result, the pace of urbanization has significant effects on population growth. In this research an attempt is made to model urban-rural population growth in China. A demoeconomic model of urban and rural sectors is calibrated to account for the long-term trend of urbanization in China.... An accounts-based urban-rural population model, in which rural to urban migration and transition are driven by the foregoing demoeconomic model, is established.... These models are used to make urban-rural population projections for the period 1988-2087 under various fertility rate assumptions."

Asia↗
PubMed1983

A strategy for generating and testing models of migration and urban growth.

"In this paper, it is argued that to identify the appropriate conditions under which the traditional gravity-type migration model should be tested, it is necessary to consider the wider demographic-economic framework in which such models play an essential part. The traditional model and attempts to make it more realistic in an ad hoc way are first sketched, and then the model is embedded in a dynamic framework based on nonlinear differential equations of the logistic kind describing the growth of population and employment. The role of the gravity model in coupling these equations is then developed." A theoretical analysis of this framework is then presented using simulation. "The simplest possible two-region case involving urban and rural regions is developed and after preliminary simulations, a more realistic version involving urban core, suburb and rural hinterland is proposed. A number of variants of this model are tested using simulation and it is concluded that in devising an appropriate test for this type of migration model, attention should be switched from spatial to temporal variation in migration using highly polarized spatial situations such as city regions." (summary in FRE, GER)

Demography↗
PubMed1986

John Turner revisited: an intra-urban migration model for colonial-type cities in Latin America.

The author uses the intra-urban migration model developed by John Turner in the early 1960s to examine population movements in the city of Arequipa, Peru. Ways in which the model applies in the case of Arequipa are summarized, as are quantitative and qualitative differences between the model and the Arequipa study. The Turner model employs economic (industrialization level), demographic (level of rural-to-urban migration), and political (housing policy) criteria to distinguish a city's transitional phase. "According to these criteria Arequipa clearly belongs to the mid-transitional phase. The pattern of intra-urban migration, however, shows a mixture of Turner's mid and late transitional phases (e.g. center acts still as a reception area, but at the same time a major number of migrants settle directly in the periphery).... The town itself has a limited industrial development and hardly any municipal housing policy worth mentioning.... It is above all the demographic factor in combination with the town's morphology (a large colonial-type center, etc.) which in the case of Arequipa regulates the pattern of intra-urban migration."

Americas↗
PubMed1987

A dynamic phase transition model for spatial agglomeration processes.

A nonlinear model of population migration is presented in order to provide a dynamic explanation for the formation of metropolitan areas. "In Section 2 the model is introduced in terms of the rate equations for the mean values of the regional population numbers with specifically chosen individual transition rates. Section 3 gives a survey of concepts and results for the convenience of the reader not interested in the details of the mathematical derivations. Section 4 derives the stationary solutions of the rate equations, that is, the equilibria of the system. Section 5 treats the time dependent solutions of the model equations focussing on the exact analytic solutions along so-called symmetry paths. Section 6 analyzes the dynamic stability of the symmetry path solutions and decides which stationary states are unstable and which are stable equilibrium states."

Demography↗
PubMed1982

The factors of urban population growth: net inmigration versus natural increase.

"As a country evolves from a traditional to an advanced society, the part of urban growth that is due to net inmigration follows a simple pattern, which can be described by an inverted U-shaped curve: it first increases, then passes through a maximum, and decreases thereafter. This hypothesis is confirmed by quantitative analysis using time-series and cross-section data. The analysis suggests that in the second half of this century natural increase often provides a slightly higher contribution to urban population growth than net inmigration." (summary in FRE, ITA, JPN, )

Demography↗