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PubMed2026

Autodissemination stations suppress Aedes notoscriptus mosquitoes and reduce Buruli ulcer risk in urban Australia: a randomized controlled field trial.

Aedes notoscriptus are mosquito vectors implicated in transmission of Mycobacterium ulcerans. This bacterium causes a destructive infection of skin and soft tissue called Buruli ulcer. Here we ran a randomized controlled trial in an urban Buruli ulcer endemic area in Melbourne, Australia to test whether autodissemination mosquito control stations, containing pyriproxyfen (larvicide) and Beauveria bassiana (entomopathogenic fungus), suppress Ae. notoscriptus populations. Six geographic areas each received 100 autodissemination stations for 8 weeks, and six control areas received no stations between 25 January 2024 and 21 March 2024. The primary outcome measure was mosquito population numbers. After the trial, there was a 70% average reduction in mosquito egg counts among the six intervention areas compared to control areas (P = 0.0076). In an ad hoc analysis, we then explored human Buruli ulcer notifications in treatment and control areas. After accounting for the 4.8-month mean incubation period, there was an 83% reduction in infection likelihood coinciding with peak intervention effect (intervention zones 1 case, control zones 6 cases, incidence ratio rate 0.167, 95% CI 0.0026-1.054, P = 0.047). The effect was not observed during the same time period in the year previous or following 2024, when no interventions were undertaken. A strong correlation (R2 = 0.85) was observed between decreased disease risk and mosquito suppression. These data show that autodissemination traps can effectively lower urban mosquito populations and reduce the threat of Buruli ulcer in humans.

Animals↗

PubMed2026

Diverse structures of mcr-10-bearing plasmids and high colistin resistance in Enterobacter cloacae complex clinical isolates from South Korea.

BACKGROUND: The emergence of mcr-mediated colistin resistance in Enterobacter cloacae complex (ECC) poses a significant threat to antimicrobial therapy. Among mcr variants, mcr-10 has been identified in various environments, but its genetic diversity, structural context, and functional role in colistin resistance remain unclear. METHODS: We investigated 183 ECC isolates and identified 60 colistin-resistant strains through minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) testing. The presence of mcr-10 was screened using reference genomes from NCBI, and whole plasmid sequencing was conducted on mcr-10-positive isolates. The genetic environment of mcr-10 was analyzed via synteny and structural annotation. RESULTS: Whole-plasmid sequencing of eight mcr-10-positive ECC isolates identified three replicon types among the mcr-10-harboring plasmids: IncFIB (n=3), IncFII (n=3), and IncFII/IncFIB (n=2). Although all plasmids shared the xerC-mcr-10 cassette, they lacked a conserved backbone and showed diverse genetic contexts with variable insertion sequences near mcr-10, indicating marked structural heterogeneity. No additional antimicrobial resistance genes were detected on these plasmids. When introduced into E. coli DH5α, the plasmids increased colistin MICs only modestly, whereas representative plasmids transferred into colistin-susceptible E. roggenkampii and E. kobei conferred high-level resistance comparable to that of the parental mcr-10-positive isolates. Consistently, qRT-PCR showed higher mcr-10 expression in ECC transformants than in E. coli under colistin exposure, supporting a hostdependent effect on mcr-10-mediated colistin resistance. CONCLUSION: These findings highlight the diversity of mcr-10-carrying plasmids and suggest that mcr-10-mediated colistin resistance is shaped by the host genetic background. Further studies are needed to clarify the mechanisms underlying mcr-10 expression.

Colistin↗

PubMed2025

Mediators of the Association Between a Parent's Experience of Trauma and Their Children's Well-Being: A Systematic Review.

At present, our understanding of trauma's complexity is underdeveloped, particularly with regard to intergenerational effects. In this paper, we review peer-reviewed literature on parental trauma and child well-being, focusing on mediating factors. We conducted a global systematic review of longitudinal, observational studies assessing mediators between a parent's traumatic exposure and their children's well-being. The primary outcome of the review was quantitative measures of child well-being (physical and psycho-social) assessed when the child was 18 years or under. We considered the following experiences as trauma exposures: intimate partner violence, rape, sexual assault, victimization during violent crime, childhood abuse, and exposure to direct, immediate threats to personal survival during war, political unrest, natural disasters, and sudden, critical injury/illness. Thirty-two studies met our inclusion criteria. The two most common mediator categories were caregiver mental health (n = 13) and parenting behavior (n = 10). Other studies measured aspects of the parent-child relationship (n = 9), maternal stress factors (n = 5), parental physical health (n = 2), and child-level factors (n = 6) as mediators. Almost all included studies (n = 28) detected a mediation effect. The majority of studies (n = 21) cited robust theoretical frameworks to support their mediator and outcome choices. Studies varied in quality, but most used appropriate, formal mediation analyses. Several study designs could be enhanced by methods to improve precision and reduce bias. Currently, there is little consistency in how similar constructs are measured between mediation studies. We did not locate any studies in low-income countries, and few studies examined aspects of family dynamics, physical health, environmental characteristics, or paternal factors.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Aflatoxins and their biosynthetic precursors in lotus seeds: simultaneous UPLC-MS/MS determination, contamination profiling, and matrix-specific accumulation during Aspergillus flavus infection.

Aflatoxin (AF) contamination poses a severe global threat to food and medicinal material safety, yet existing research focuses on terminal AF metabolites while neglecting residual biosynthetic precursors, leading to potential underestimation of contamination risks. In this study, a UPLC-MS/MS method was established for the simultaneous quantification of six AFs and their five precursors in lotus seeds, with optimization of mass spectrum parameters, chromatographic separation conditions, and sample pretreatment. Method validation confirmed linearity (R2 > 0.99), LODs (0.03-0.36 μg/kg), and recoveries (76.53%-120.0%, RSD < 15%). Analysis of 41 natural lotus seed samples revealed a 63.4% AF contamination rate, dominated by B-group AFs, while O-methylsterigmatocystin (OMST) and versicolorin hemiacetal (VOH) were identified as the primary co-residual precursors with co-occurrence rates ≥ 50%. Notably, AFM1 was predominantly detected in natural samples with AFB1 concentrations exceeding 100 μg/kg. Artificial inoculation experiments further demonstrated that sterilization and sealing conditions modulated AF biosynthesis in lotus seeds, with non-sterilized and non-sealed groups showing delayed fungal metabolism and lower toxin accumulation. A significant linear correlation was observed between AFM1 and AFB1 levels (r = 0.94) in infected samples, demonstrating their accumulation levels are coupled with fungal overall metabolic flux. Given the high co-occurrence rate of OMST/VOH with AFB1 in natural samples, their individual and combined toxicities require in-depth investigation. This work deciphers matrix-specific AF dynamics in lotus seeds, supporting regulatory standard refinement (e.g., precursor inclusion) and targeted control (e.g., time-sensitive drying after harvest). Further studies will focus on exploring the molecular mechanisms of substrate-dependent AF synthesis.

Aflatoxins↗

PubMed2026

Genomic epidemiology of extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing Escherichia coli across humans, poultry and wastewater sectors in Douala, Cameroon.

BACKGROUND: The global health threat of antimicrobial resistance involves the human, animal and environmental sectors. Data from Cameroon are scarce. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to define extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing Escherichia coli (ESBL-Ec) rates and associated risk factors across the three sectors in Douala, Cameroon, and to define molecular characteristics of isolates. METHODS: From June 2022 to May 2023, we collected blood cultures from hospitalized patients, rectal swabs from healthy pregnant women, caeca from broiler chickens and environmental wastewater. Samples were screened for ESBL-Ec using CHROMAgar™ ESBL and cefotaxime-supplemented Tryptone Bile X-glucuronide agar. Antimicrobial susceptibility testing was performed by disk diffusion following EUCAST guidelines. Whole-genome sequencing was carried out using Illumina technology. RESULTS: Of 628 samples, 374 yielded ESBL-Ec. Prevalence was 54.6% (131/240) in pregnant women, 70.4% (169/240) in chickens and 93.1% (67/72) in wastewater. The proportion of ESBL-Ec among E. coli-positive-blood cultures was 9.2% (7/76). Multi-family household living was independently associated with ESBL-Ec carriage among pregnant women (adjusted odds ratio = 1.7, 95% CI 1.0-3.1, P = 0.03). High co-resistance (>70%) was observed for tetracycline, ciprofloxacin and trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole. Sequencing of 32 isolates revealed 45 distinct resistance genes, including blaCTX-M-15 (n = 13, 40.6%), blaCTX-M-55 (n = 11, 34.4%) and last-resort antibiotic resistance genes mcr-1 and bla OXA-181. High-risk sequence types included ST131 (pregnant women) and ST10 (chickens). Notably, ST48 was shared between pregnant women and chickens, and ST155 between pregnant women and wastewater. CONCLUSION: Cross-sectoral ESBL-Ec in Douala exhibits high genomic diversity and alarming resistance. The occurrence of last-resort genes requires immediate One Health surveillance and coordinated interventions.

Journal Article↗

PubMed2026

Micro- and nanoplastics-induced neurotoxicity: a CNS-centered, evidence-graded adverse outcome pathway framework based on systematic weight-of-evidence assessment.

Micro- and nanoplastics (MPs/NPs) are ubiquitous anthropogenic particulate pollutants posing emerging threats to human neurological health. Severe heterogeneity in particle physicochemical properties, environmental aging status, exposure paradigms and experimental platforms has created persistent mechanistic uncertainties in MP/NP neurotoxicology, hindering reliable hazard characterization and risk translation. Here, we systematically consolidate empirical toxicological evidence and construct a dedicated central nervous system (CNS)-targeted adverse outcome pathway (AOP) network integrated with rigorous weight-of-evidence (WoE) grading to elucidate the hierarchical, particle-specific toxic cascades underlying MP/NP-induced neural injury. Our synthesis overturns the conventional linear toxicity paradigm, demonstrating that MPs/NPs trigger neurotoxicity via a complex multi-input mechanistic network. We definitively establish oxidative stress as a robust early convergent key event-rather than a universal molecular initiating event-orchestrating ROS overproduction, lipid peroxidation, mitochondrial dysfunction, and neuroinflammation to propagate neuronal damage. This core module is driven by five distinct particulate upstream triggers: particle-biomolecule interfacial perturbation, corona-facilitated cellular internalization, plastic-associated chemical leaching, aging-derived free radical reactivity, and gut-borne systemic neurotoxic signaling. Downstream pathogenic outcomes encompass glial overactivation, neurotransmitter dyshomeostasis, autophagy-lysosome dysfunction, metabolic reprogramming, regulated neuronal cell death, and behavioral impairments. Tiered WoE analysis confirms strong validation for early oxidative/inflammatory cascades, moderate support for gut-brain axis crosstalk and intracellular trafficking disruption, and nascent evidence for synaptic dysfunction and neurodegeneration-linked proteostatic defects. Extrapolation to human health risk remains constrained by the frequent use of high-dose exposure paradigms, limited validated data on internal dosimetry in the human brain, discrepancies between effective concentrations in experimental models and environmentally relevant human tissue burdens, and insufficient causal validation of distal adverse outcomes. We highlight key research priorities including aged mixed-particle exposure systems, leachate-controlled assays, quantitative internal dose evaluation, and mechanistic intervention verification. This evidence-stratified AOP framework resolves longstanding mechanistic ambiguities in particulate neurotoxicity, providing a standardized, causality-based foundation for future mechanistic exploration and health risk assessment of global plastic pollution.

Adverse outcome pathway↗

PubMed2026

Transcriptomic insights into thermal stress reveal physiological trade-off between thermal stress adaptation and reproductive investment in Spodoptera litura.

Spodoptera litura, a highly polyphagous lepidopteran pest, poses a major threat to agricultural productivity due to its remarkable adaptability to diverse environmental conditions. Although heat stress is known to trigger transcriptional reprogramming in insects, the molecular mechanisms underlying thermal stress responses in S. litura remain poorly understood. In the present study, fourth-instar larvae were exposed to acute heat stress (44 °C) and compared with control conditions (27 ± 1 °C) to investigate heat-induced transcriptional alterations affecting physiology and reproduction. High-quality RNA-Seq data achieved more than 80% mapping efficiency, with a total of 15,782 transcripts were identified. Transcriptome analysis of S. litura larvae showed 323 differentially expressed genes (DEGs), of which 262 genes were significantly upregulated and 61 were downregulated in heat-stressed larvae compared to the control group. The DEGs were associated with stress response, reproduction, signalling, proteostasis, detoxification, oxidative stress, metabolism, development, and chromatin regulation. Heat shock proteins genes, including HSP70, HSP90, and HSP27, together with co-chaperones such as TRET-1, STIP1, and Starvin, were strongly upregulated, indicating enhanced cellular protection against protein damage and oxidative stress under heat stress. Conversely, key reproductive and cell cycle-related genes, including BARR, CAPD2, FEO, CDK2 and MORULA, were significantly downregulated, suggesting reproductive impairment and developmental arrest. RT-qPCR validation corroborated the RNA-Seq findings, demonstrating a heat-induced physiological trade-off that prioritizes survival over reproduction. Consistent with these molecular responses, heat-stressed insects exhibited marked reproductive impairment, including significant reductions in gonadosomatic index, eupyrene sperm bundle count, mating frequency, mating success, female calling behaviour, copulation duration, fecundity, and egg fertility. Collectively, these findings provide comprehensive insights into the molecular basis of thermal adaptation in S. litura and demonstrate that acute heat stress compromises reproductive fitness while activating conserved stress-response pathways that promote short-term survival.

Animals↗

PubMed2026

Transcriptomic responses of gill and intestinal tissues in Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) to bacterial infection following sequential nanoimmersion and hydrogel-based multivalent vaccination.

Bacterial pathogens, including Flavobacterium oreochromis, Aeromonas veronii, Streptococcus agalactiae, and Edwardsiella tarda, represent major infectious threats to Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus). A multivalent vaccination strategy integrating cationic nanoemulsion immersion with oral hydrogel boosters was developed to investigate tissue-specific immune responses at the transcriptomic level. Gill tissues were collected following immersion challenge and intestinal tissues following intraperitoneal injection challenge, reflecting the physiologically relevant infection biology of each pathogen and the mechanistic rationale of each delivery platform. RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) generated high-quality datasets (mapping rate > 81.64%) with strong concordance to quantitative real-time PCR (qRT-PCR) validation (r = 0.83). Comparative transcriptomic analysis revealed distinct yet complementary immune signatures between tissues. Gill transcriptomes were enriched in phagosome, focal adhesion, extracellular matrix-receptor interaction (ECM-receptor interaction), and cytokine-cytokine receptor interaction pathways, accompanied by increased expression of major histocompatibility complex class I/II (MHC class I/II), mannose receptor, αVβ3 integrin, and calnexin, indicating innate activation, enhanced phagocytic capacity, epithelial barrier reinforcement, and adaptive immune coordination. Intestinal transcriptomes showed predominant enrichment of adaptive immune pathways, including the intestinal immune network for immunoglobulin (Ig) production, Forkhead box O (FoxO) signaling, and mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) signaling, with increased expression of T-cell receptor (TCR), inducible T-cell co-stimulator ligand (ICOS-L), C-X-C chemokine receptor type 4 (CXCR4), and polymeric immunoglobulin receptor (pIgR), reflecting T and B cell coordination, lymphocyte trafficking, and mucosal immunoglobulin transport, alongside innate engagement through phagosome pathway enrichment. Shared upregulation of MHC class II, B-cell receptor (BCR) signaling, integrin alpha M (ITGAM), and immunoglobulin-associated components across both tissues suggests coordinated mucosal immune activation through a conserved immune module, warranting direct experimental validation. Collectively, these findings provide transcriptomic evidence that this vaccination strategy elicits an integrated, tissue-specialized immune response, advancing mechanistic understanding of gill and intestinal immunity in vaccine-induced protection of teleost fish.

Animals↗

PubMed2026

Psychological impacts of APOE genotype disclosure among Latinos in New York City: a randomized controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION: Latinos face increased Alzheimer's disease (AD) risk but are underrepresented in studies of APOE genotype disclosure. We evaluated the psychological impacts of APOE disclosure in the Información de la Enfermedad de Alzheimer para Latinos (IDEAL) study, a randomized controlled trial among Latinos in New York City. METHODS: Latino northern Manhattan residents without self-reported AD (mean age 52, 69% women, 49% college graduates) were randomized in the period August 2021 to July 2024 to receive AD risk estimates to age 85 incorporating APOE genotype, family history, and ethnicity (disclosure) or the same factors excluding APOE (non-disclosure). Bilingual genetic counselors delivered risk estimates to both groups, unmasked to randomization. Follow-up surveys were completed 6 weeks, 9 months, and 15 months after risk delivery. Primary outcomes were impact of genetic testing in AD (IGT-AD) and Impact of Event Scale-Revised (IES-R). Secondary outcomes were changes from baseline in depression, anxiety, and perceived AD threat. Analyses used intention-to-treat with multiple imputation. RESULTS: Disclosure (N = 194) and non-disclosure (N = 180) groups did not differ on IGT-AD (mean disclosure-non-disclosure difference [MD] at 6 weeks: -1.5, p = 0.14; 9 months: -1.2, p = 0.35; 15 months: -2.0, p = 0.07), IES-R (MD at 6 weeks: 0.00, p = 0.98; 9 months: 0.01, p = 0.84; 15 months: 0.03, p = 0.64), or change in secondary outcomes. Occurrence of disclosure-related adverse events was similar in the disclosure (N = 2) and non-disclosure (N = 3) groups. DISCUSSION: In this Latino cohort, APOE disclosure did not have clinically significant adverse psychological effects, addressing an important evidence gap. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04471779.

Aged↗

PubMed2026

Characterization and application potential of two newly isolated phages targeting the prevalent multidrug resistant Salmonella serovars in China.

The escalating global threat of multidrug resistant (MDR) Salmonella, a foodborne pathogen with animal-derived foods serving as the primary transmission vehicle, underscores the urgent need for effective lytic phages for biocontrol. From 142 environmental and farm samples in Shandong Province, we isolated 103 phages active against MDR S. Enteritidis and S. Typhimurium, which were the most prevalent Salmonella serovars in China. Two Siphoviridae phages vB-SenS-S1 and vB-SenS-SEC2 were selected for further study. With optimal multiplicities of infection (MOIs) of 10-2 (vB-SenS-S1) and 10-5 (vB-SenS-SEC2), both phages exhibited a 20 min latent period, yielding burst sizes of 52 and 37 PFU/cell, respectively. They also demonstrated stability across a range of temperatures (50-60 °C), pH levels (5-11), and after 1 h of UV exposure. Genomic analysis identified vB-SenS-S1 (43,002 bp, 47.04% GC) and vB-SenS-SEC2 (42,948 bp, 47.65% GC) as novel double-stranded DNA phages. Functional annotation confirmed the presence of genes essential for structural assembly, host lysis, and DNA replication/metabolism, and also verified the absence of resistance, virulence, and lysogeny-associated genes. Both phages vB-SenS-S1 and vB-SenS-SEC2 exhibited synergy with colistin and tetracycline. The synergy with colistin was particularly potent, leading to complete bacterial eradication in vitro. The in vivo therapeutic efficacy was further validated in both Galleria mellonella larvae and murine models of MDR Salmonella infection. Combination therapy with vB-SenS-SEC2 and colistin not only dramatically increased survival but also achieved a significant reduction in bacterial burden across multiple visceral organs of infected mice. Moreover, vB-SenS-S1 (108 PFU/mL) completely inhibited MDR Salmonella on chicken meat at 4 °C and -20 °C when initial contamination was ≤103 CFU/mL. This study not only expands the diversity of Salmonella phages but also highlights their potential as biocontrol agents in both clinical veterinary use and food decontamination, thereby enhancing food quality and safety at both the meat production source and the terminal product.

Animals↗

PubMed2026

Temporal shifts in gyrA mutation types and sublineage replacement in ST11 Salmonella enterica serovar Enteritidis over a decade (2014-2023): A genomic epidemiological study in Guangxi, China.

The overuse or abuse of antibiotics drives the global health threat of antimicrobial resistance. Although bans on certain veterinary antibiotics, such as colistin, have proven effective, the impact of fluoroquinolone stewardship on the evolution of the foodborne pathogen Salmonella enterica serovar Enteritidis (S. Enteritidis) remains unclear. Here, we conducted a decade-long (2014-2023) retrospective longitudinal genomic epidemiological analysis of 441 ST11 S. Enteritidis isolates from Guangxi, China, alongside a global reference dataset of 4297 genomes. Our aim was to elucidate the effect of real-world antibiotic stewardship on the shift of gyrA point mutations and lineage distribution. Surveillance identified three global epidemic clade sublineages (GEC-L2, L3, L4), with the multidrug-resistant GEC-L4 (i.e., GC-c or MMC2), characterized by the gyrA mutation with amino acid substitution D87Y, being domestically dominant (70.07%, 309/441). Following China's 2016 ban on the veterinary use of critical fluoroquinolones, the proportion of the highly resistant GEC-L4 sublineage decreased continuously (from 86.84% in 2017 to 56.00% in 2023), while the less resistant GEC-L3 sublineage (i.e., GC-b or MMC1), mainly characterized by gyrA D87G, increased simultaneously (from 13.16% to 44.00%). This phenomenon might be attributed to the fact that the GEC-L4 sublineage exhibited a higher fitness cost compared with the GEC-L3 sublineage, as confirmed by the competition assay. A Random Forest Model validated that the gyrA mutation with amino acid substitution D87Y was the paramount feature for these sublineages' identification. In contrast, global data showed a continuous increase in gyrA mutations (from 8.63% in 2006 to 68.85% in 2024), primarily D87Y (from 1.44% to 31.15%) and D87N (from 4.32% to 22.95%), correlating with rising average fluoroquinolone consumption. This study provides direct genomic evidence that national-level antibiotic stewardship can drive the replacement of highly resistant sublineages with moderately resistant ones. These findings offer crucial scientific evidence for evaluating the impact of antibiotic management policies and inform strategies for the rational use of antimicrobials.

China↗

PubMed2026

Navigating Social Media: Balancing Connectivity With Media Literacy to Combat Misinformation and Protect Mental Well-Being.

BACKGROUND: The pervasive use of social media has created a complex digital ecosystem where high connectivity coexists with significant challenges, including the rapid spread of misinformation, particularly regarding mental health, and documented negative impacts on psychological well-being. Platform architectures designed for engagement maximization have been identified as central factors in both issues. OBJECTIVE: This paper critically analyzes the interconnected relationships between social media use, misinformation dissemination, and mental health impacts, with particular attention to psychiatric misinformation across diagnostic categories (e.g., depression, anxiety, ADHD). A primary objective is to evaluate the potential of advanced critical digital literacy frameworks to serve as protective mechanisms against these dual threats. METHODS: A systematic search was conducted following PRISMA 2020 guidelines across APA PsycInfo, PubMed, JSTOR, and Google Scholar for literature published between January 2018 and March 2026 (updated from the original 2023 search). The search yielded 2672 records. After removing 624 duplicates, 2048 records underwent title and abstract screening, with 1802 excluded. The remaining 246 full-text articles were assessed for eligibility, resulting in 86 studies included in the final qualitative synthesis. Inter-rater reliability was established (Cohen's κ = 0.82). Quality assessment was conducted using the Joanna Briggs Institute Checklist, AXIS, and CASP tools, with findings weighted by methodological quality. A thematic analysis was undertaken to synthesize findings. RESULTS: The analysis reveals that core architectural features of social media platforms, algorithmic curation and engagement-based metrics, simultaneously foster environments ripe for misinformation spread and contribute to psychological distress, including anxiety, depression, and harmful social comparison. Psychiatric misinformation specifically (e.g., inaccurate claims about treatment effectiveness, diagnostic criteria, and medication side effects) represents a growing concern, particularly on image- and video-based platforms. The findings indicate that conventional media literacy approaches focused solely on fact-checking are insufficient. Instead, a critical digital literacy framework encompassing algorithmic awareness, data literacy, and emotional awareness is essential for building user resilience, with evidence from high-quality systematic reviews supporting this approach. CONCLUSIONS: Navigating the complexities of modern social media requires an integrated approach combining "pedagogies of play" for experiential skill development with advocacy for structural change (e.g., algorithmic transparency, well being by design principles). This dual strategy empowers individual users to critically engage with digital content while advocating for ethical platform design, thereby safeguarding both mental well-being and democratic discourse. Implications for educators, mental health professionals (including competencies for addressing patient encounters with psychiatric misinformation), policymakers, and platform designers are discussed.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Impacts of climate-driven yield changes on the affordability of healthy diets: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Food security is central to global nutrition improvement and public health goals, and healthy diets represent a higher-level aspiration beyond merely avoiding hunger. Climate change poses an increasing threat to food systems by affecting crop yields and food prices. Although climate change-driven risks to hunger have been widely studied, the extent to which climate change undermines the affordability of healthy diets while accounting for socioeconomic responses and regional inequalities remains insufficiently understood. This study aimed to quantify the effects of climate change on the future affordability of healthy diets under alternative socioeconomic and climate scenarios. METHODS: We developed an integrated modelling framework that explicitly couples multimodel crop-yield projections with an integrated assessment model (Global Change Analysis Model [GCAM]). Yield responses from six global gridded crop models driven by four climate models were integrated into GCAM, allowing endogenous socioeconomic adjustments such as land-use shifts, production reallocation, and price responses to emerge under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Diet affordability was then assessed using the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN's Cost and Affordability of a Healthy Diet framework across three socioeconomic-climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-6.0). FINDINGS: Under a high-emissions pathway (ie, SSP3-6.0), climate change was projected to render healthy diets unaffordable for a model-mean of 119 million people globally by 2100, even when CO2 fertilisation effects are included, with the upper end of the model ensemble reaching about 1·6 billion people. In contrast, climate-induced affordability losses were found to be negligible under both a low-emissions pathway (ie, SSP1-2.6; -0·3 million) and a medium-emission pathway (SSP2-4.5; +0·2 million). Under a high-emission pathway, model-mean projections indicated that diet costs could increase by up to 12% in the most affected regions by the end of the century. Under medium emissions, cost increases were projected to remain below 4%, whereas under low emissions, affordability changes were projected to be minimum across regions (within approximately 0·5%). Substantial regional disparities emerged, with the largest and most consistent affordability losses concentrated in low-income regions that contributed least to historical greenhouse gas emissions. Under SSP3-6.0, these disparities persisted particularly in regions of Africa and Asia despite projected three-to-five-fold increases in income over the century, with climate-induced disruptions to food systems increasing the number of people unable to afford a healthy diet through mid-century. INTERPRETATION: Climate change is likely to exacerbate global nutritional inequalities by disproportionately increasing the affordability risks of healthy diets in regions that have contributed least to historical greenhouse gas emissions. Under high-warming scenarios, socioeconomic development alone is insufficient to fully offset these risks, highlighting the structural vulnerability of low-income food systems to climate-driven price shocks. These findings suggest that in the absence of targeted interventions, climate change could continue to undermine progress towards equitable and health-oriented nutrition outcomes. FUNDING: Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China; National Natural Science Foundation of China; National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies Climate Impacts Group; Future of Life Institute; and Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition.

Journal Article↗