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PubMed2000

An examination of graduate students' statistical judgments: statistical and fuzzy set approaches.

The present study examined how statistical significance levels are treated and interpreted by graduate students who use hypothesis-testing in their scientific investigation. To test underlying psychological aspects of hypothesis-testing, the idea of fuzzy set theory was employed to identify the uncertain points in judgments. 34 graduate students in a psychology department made judgments about hypothetical statistical decisions. The results indicated that (1) the majority of these students treated significance levels on a continuum and rated them according to the magnitude of statistical significance; (2) the subjects shifted their decisions based on the types of hypothetical scenarios but not by the sample sizes; instead, they interpreted a smaller sample size as being less reliable. (3) The subjects frequently chose formally used statistical terms, e.g., Significant and Not Significant, more than graduated verbal expressions, e.g., Marginally Significant and Borderline Significant; and (4) the Fuzziness (degree of confidence in decision-making) was dependent on individuals and existed more in the critical points of transition where judgments are most difficult. The Fuzziness Index illustrated the subtle shifts of human decision-making patterns in statistical judgments. Underlying decision uncertainties and difficulties can be illustrated by functions generated from fuzzy set theory, which may more closely resemble human psychological mechanism. This integrative study of fuzzy set theory and behavioral measurements appears to provide a technique that is more natural for examining and understanding imprecise boundaries of human decisions.

Adult↗
PubMed2004

Improved statistical test for nonstationarity using recurrence time statistics.

We have recently introduced a measure for nonstationarity using a recurrence time statistic to assess stationarity. In this paper we propose an extension of this method based on a detailed study of the statistics for the case of stationary systems. We derive a simple scheme that allows us to estimate the effective number of degrees of freedom relevant for this statistic. This substantially improves the statistical significance of the method and can be used to improve the significance of various other nonlinear statistics.

Journal Article↗
PubMed1989

Analysis of surveillance data: a rationale for statistical tests with comments on confidence intervals and statistical models.

In the examination of differences between subgroups in surveillance data, whether through simple counting or through sophisticated statistical modelling, the comparison is not between simple random samples from two or more populations. The rationale for statistical tests rests on an appeal to a model of random permutation of demographic and disease factors for the observed population during the surveillance period. The testing evaluates chance as a possible explanation for the observed results. In the analysis of internal structure in a surveillance data set, statistical tests produce a conceptually simple result that lends itself to concise presentation and flexible interpretation. Tests limit emphasis on probabilistic manipulation and on parameter estimates. They cannot stand alone, and thus encourage descriptive presentation of observations. In contrast, statistical models and confidence intervals emphasize parameters rather than distributions and compete with the data for limited space.

Data Interpretation, Statistical↗
PubMed1998

Recommendations for statistical designs of in vivo mutagenicity tests with regard to subsequent statistical analysis.

A workshop was held on September 13 and 14, 1993, at the GSF, Neuherberg, Germany, to start a discussion of experimental design and statistical analysis issues for three in vivo mutagenicity test systems, the micronucleus test in mouse bone marrow/peripheral blood, the chromosomal aberration tests in mouse bone marrow/differentiating spermatogonia, and the mouse dominant lethal test. The discussion has now come to conclusions which we would like to make generally known. Rather than dwell upon specific statistical tests which could be used for data analysis, serious consideration was given to test design. However, the test design, its power of detecting a given increase of adverse effects and the test statistics are interrelated. Detailed analyses of historical negative control data led to important recommendations for each test system. Concerning the statistical sensitivity parameters, a type I error of 0.05 (one tailed), a type II error of 0.20 and a dose related increase of twice the background (negative control) frequencies were generally adopted. It was recommended that sufficient observations (cells, implants) be planned for each analysis unit (animal) so that at least one adverse outcome (micronucleus, aberrant cell, dead implant) would likely be observed. The treated animal was the smallest unit of analysis allowed. On the basis of these general consideration the sample size was determined for each of the three assays. A minimum of 2000 immature erythrocytes/animal should be scored for micronuclei from each of at least 4 animals in each comparison group in the micronucleus assays. A minimum of 200 cells should be scored for chromosomal aberrations from each of at least 5 animals in each comparison group in the aberration assays. In the dominant lethal test, a minimum of 400 implants (40-50 pregnant females) are required per dose group for each mating period. The analysis unit for the dominant lethal test would be the treated male unless the background frequency of dead implants (DI) is so low that multiple males would need to be integrated to meet the minimum observation of one adverse outcome (DI) per analysis unit. A three-step strategy of data analysis was proposed for the cytogenetic assays. Use of negative historical controls was allowed in certain circumstances for interpretation of results from micronucleus tests and chromosomal aberration tests.

Animals↗
PubMedDate not supplied

CAN'T MISS: conquer any number task by making important statistics simple. Part 7. Statistical process control: x-s control charts.

Statistical process control (SPC) can be thought of as the frequent monitoring of processes using inferential statistics. The feature that distinguishes SPC from the typical use of inferential statistics for analyzing populations is that in the former frequent samples are taken over time, whereas in inferential statistics a single sample is generaLLy taken before and after some intervention or treatment. An x-s control chart is used to monitor a continuous variable that reflects the output of a process. The x-s control chart is a graph that includes serial sample means (x) as the variables of interest, a centerline that represents the grand mean of the samples (x), and upper control limit (UCL) and lower control limit (LCL) that represent three standard errors (SEx) above and below the centerline. An x-s control chart is used to estimate with 99.7% confidence that the population mean of a continuous output variable was within the interval defined by the UCL and LCL during a period of baseline monitoring. It is further assumed that if the process remains stable, future population means wiLL remain between the control Limits for additional process outputs. Control charts allow the evaluation of both common- and special-cause variation. AnaLysis of the common-cause variation aLLows an assessment of the current process performance. Special-cause variation is identified when there is a sample mean that is beyond the UCL or LCL.

Confidence Intervals↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Looking for statistical stability: a new method of evaluating reliability of statistical tests.

A new method of looking for statistical reliability, stability calculation, is described and is applied to statistical tests. Alike the power of statistical tests, stability calculation enables us to assess reliability of the latter. It belongs to the category of subsampling techniques that require using subsamples taken from the original sample. It provides descriptive and non-inferential results indicating the stability percentage: the percentage of sample elements to be removed, in order to change results obtained with the original sample. The higher is the stability percentage the more reliable is the statistical test. Stability percentage and power are correlated. Stability calculation provides informations about the elements in the sample, the most powerful points.

Computer Simulation↗
PubMed1998

Statistical quality control methods in infection control and hospital epidemiology, Part II: Chart use, statistical properties, and research issues.

This is the second in a two-part series discussing and illustrating the application of statistical process control (SPC) in hospital epidemiology. The basic philosophical and theoretical foundations of statistical quality control and their relation to epidemiology are emphasized in order to expand the mutual understanding and cross-fertilization between these two disciplines. Part I provided an overview of the philosophy and general approach of SPC, illustrated common types of control charts, and provided references for further information or statistical formulae. Part II now discusses alternate possible SPC approaches, statistical properties of control charts, chart-design issues and optimal control limit widths, some common misunderstandings, and more advanced issues. The focus of both articles is mostly nonmathematical, emphasizing important concepts and practical examples rather than academic theory and exhaustive calculations.

Data Display↗
PubMed2003

Methodological and statistical techniques: what do residents really need to know about statistics?

The purpose of this study was to catalog the statistical methods used in six journals two each from the fields of Family Practice, Emergency Medicine, and Obstetrics and Gynecology. We reviewed the quantitative articles from January 1998 through December 2000 from the Journal of Family Practice, the Journal of Family Medicine, the Annals of Emergency Medicine, the Journal of Academic Emergency Medicine. Articles from January 2000 through December 2000 of Obstetrics and Gynecology and the American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology were also included. Case reports and editorials were not included in this analysis. There were a total of 1828 articles reviewed (666 from Emergency Medicine articles, 380 from Family Practice, and 782 from Obstetrics and Gynecology). The distribution of study types (cross-sectional or survey, retrospective, or prospective) did not differ between the selected journals within Emergency Medicine, Family Practice, or Obstetrics and Gynecology. Pearson's chi-square/Fisher's Exact test was the statistic of choice overall (47.5%) followed by Student's t-test (33.1%). Analysis-of-variance was used in 23.3% of the studies, nonparametric methods (8.1%), linear regression (17.6%), and odds ratios/logistic regression (17.4%). Other statistical procedures were used less than 10% of the time. These results show that a physician who comfortably comprehends the appropriate use of descriptive statistics Student's t-test, Pearson's chi-square/Fisher's Exact test will be able to read and interpret at least 70% of the published medical literature. Educational efforts should focus on appropriate study design and analysis.

Clinical Competence↗
PubMed2005

[Statistical analysis of community-based studies -- presentation and comparison of possible solutions with reference to statistical meta-analytic methods].

PURPOSE: The statistical analysis of community-based trials and of other cluster-randomised trials, requires specific statistical methods. We show the consequences of the application of these models for study results, using data of the German Cardiovascular Prevention Study (GCP) as an example. METHODS: Data of 30,285 subjects were analysed, which were collected at the beginning and at the end of the study period. These data had been collected in 7 intervention regions and by national surveys. We grouped data of the national surveys in 7 control clusters to mimick a design typical for cluster-randomised trials. We applied the following statistical models to estimate the effect of the intervention on total cholesterol as well as on systolic blood pressure and the respective confidence intervals: a linear model, a mixed model, and fixed and random effects meta-analyses. RESULTS: While the estimates and confidence intervals for the intervention effect were similar in mixed model analysis and random effects meta-analysis, results from models incorporating fixed effects only were anti-conservative. The underestimation of variance in models incorporating fixed effects only was especially large in the analysis of systolic blood pressure data, where great heterogeneity between intervention communities was observed. Despite seemingly low intraclass correlation coefficients of 0.0019 for total cholesterol and 0.0166 for systolic blood pressure, respectively, the variance of the intervention effect was increased in the mixed model 2.8fold or 17.1fold, respectively, in comparison to the variance estimated in the linear model. Due to this variance inflation the intervention effect on systolic blood pressure lost statistical significance. CONCLUSION: Our results emphasise the importance to account for correlations in community-based trials. Besides the mixed model random effects meta-analysis can be applied as an alternative method.

Adult↗
PubMed1999

Statistical limitations in functional neuroimaging. I. Non-inferential methods and statistical models.

Functional neuroimaging (FNI) provides experimental access to the intact living brain making it possible to study higher cognitive functions in humans. In this review and in a companion paper in this issue, we discuss some common methods used to analyse FNI data. The emphasis in both papers is on assumptions and limitations of the methods reviewed. There are several methods available to analyse FNI data indicating that none is optimal for all purposes. In order to make optimal use of the methods available it is important to know the limits of applicability. For the interpretation of FNI results it is also important to take into account the assumptions, approximations and inherent limitations of the methods used. This paper gives a brief overview over some non-inferential descriptive methods and common statistical models used in FNI. Issues relating to the complex problem of model selection are discussed. In general, proper model selection is a necessary prerequisite for the validity of the subsequent statistical inference. The non-inferential section describes methods that, combined with inspection of parameter estimates and other simple measures, can aid in the process of model selection and verification of assumptions. The section on statistical models covers approaches to global normalization and some aspects of univariate, multivariate, and Bayesian models. Finally, approaches to functional connectivity and effective connectivity are discussed. In the companion paper we review issues related to signal detection and statistical inference.

Bayes Theorem↗
PubMed1989

Survey of cause-of-death query criteria used by state vital statistics programs in the US and the efficacy of the criteria used by the Oregon Vital Statistics Program.

A survey of the 52 vital statistics registration areas in the United States revealed that at least 23 did not fulfill the minimum cause-of-death query guidelines recommended by the National Center for Health Statistics. The Oregon Center for Health Statistics is one of only a few that query certifying physicians at a comprehensive level. During August 1986-July 1987, a total of 2,453 of 23,238 death certificates were returned to the certifiers for additional information, not including those returned in a tobacco use study. More than one-half (56.1 per cent) resulted in new and more specific underlying cause-of-death data. Only 5.2 per cent of the queries were unanswered. One probable result of Oregon's program is that the state has the highest percentage of liver cirrhosis and disease deaths attributed to alcohol abuse in the United States. Nationally, 41.7 per cent of all liver disease and cirrhosis deaths in 1984 were listed as due to alcohol compared to 82.4 per cent in Oregon. The state's total liver cirrhosis and disease death rate (12.0 per 100,000 population) is only marginally higher than the United States rate (11.6). The query program also serves to locate maternal deaths that would otherwise not be reported, as well as to provide more accurate cause-of-death statistics in general.

Cause of Death↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Statistical tests (Part 1): Descriptive statistics.

This series of three articles has been designed to facilitate an understanding of some commonly used statistical terms encountered when reading research articles. In addition, it is hoped that the nurse researcher who has access to a personal computer containing basic statistical software will gain some insight into which statistical tests to use and in what circumstances. The articles do not attempt to provide any understanding of the mathematics of the statistical tests employed.

Humans↗
PubMed2000

Saving statistical lives: contributions of statistics to public health.

Prevention is about saving "statistical lives"-lives that society knows about only through the efforts of public health statisticians like Jack Smith. As Mr. Smith's lifework suggests, statistics in public health are critical for calling attention to problems, identifying risk factors, and suggesting solutions, and ultimately for taking credit for our successes. His work illustrates two important lessons about public health statistics today.First, it's important to get the facts straight. Mr. Smith's experience shows that a careful, thoughtful analysis is not only more convincing in the end, but also brings to light important subtleties not seen in the initial analysis. Second, it takes considerable time and attention to get the facts straight. Jack Smith's work illustrates the importance of partnerships with other federal agencies, state statistical organizations, and private-sector entities.

Biometry↗
PubMed2001

Wave function statistics for ballistic quantum transport through chaotic open billiards: statistical crossover and coexistence of regular and chaotic waves.

For ballistic transport through chaotic open billiards, we implement accurate fully quantal calculations of the probability distributions and spatial correlations of the local densities of single-electron wave functions within the cavity. We find wave-statistical behaviors intrinsically different from those in their closed counterparts. Chaotic-scattering wave functions in open systems can be quantitatively interpreted in terms of statistically independent real and imaginary random fields in the same way as for wave-function statistics of closed systems in the time-reversal symmetry-breaking crossover regime. We also discuss perceived statistical deviations, which are attributed to the coexistence of regular and chaotic waves and given analytical explanations.

Journal Article↗
PubMed1984

Application of statistics and frequency of statistical errors in articles in acta neurochirurgica.

Out of 395 contributions in the volumes 51 to 64 of Acta Neurochirurgica 141 reported numerical data. The frequency of procedures used for describing distribution, location or variability and the frequency of analytical methods were evaluated. Critical assessment of these articles revealed a considerable rate of fundamental errors in application of statistics. Considering only papers involving analytical methods 52% of these (33 out of 64) contained simple statistical errors which can be avoided without any statistician's help. Some rules for improving statistical quality of medical articles are presented.

Humans↗
PubMed2007

Statistical parametric mapping and statistical probabilistic anatomical mapping analyses of basal/acetazolamide Tc-99m ECD brain SPECT for efficacy assessment of endovascular stent placement for middle cerebral artery stenosis.

INTRODUCTION: Statistical parametric mapping (SPM) and statistical probabilistic anatomical mapping (SPAM) were applied to basal/acetazolamide Tc-99m ECD brain perfusion SPECT images in patients with middle cerebral artery (MCA) stenosis to assess the efficacy of endovascular stenting of the MCA. METHODS: Enrolled in the study were 11 patients (8 men and 3 women, mean age 54.2 +/- 6.2 years) who had undergone endovascular stent placement for MCA stenosis. Using SPM and SPAM analyses, we compared the number of significant voxels and cerebral counts in basal and acetazolamide SPECT images before and after stenting, and assessed the perfusion changes and cerebral vascular reserve index (CVRI). RESULTS: The numbers of hypoperfusion voxels in SPECT images were decreased from 10,083 +/- 8,326 to 4,531 +/- 5,091 in basal images (P = 0.0317) and from 13,398 +/- 14,222 to 7,699 +/- 10,199 in acetazolamide images (P = 0.0142) after MCA stenting. On SPAM analysis, the increases in cerebral counts were significant in acetazolamide images (90.9 +/- 2.2 to 93.5 +/- 2.3, P = 0.0098) but not in basal images (91 +/- 2.7 to 92 +/- 2.6, P = 0.1602). The CVRI also showed a statistically significant increase from before stenting (median 0.32; 95% CI -2.19-2.37) to after stenting (median 1.59; 95% CI -0.85-4.16; P = 0.0068). CONCLUSION: This study revealed the usefulness of voxel-based analysis of basal/acetazolamide brain perfusion SPECT after MCA stent placement. This study showed that SPM and SPAM analyses of basal/acetazolamide Tc-99m brain SPECT could be used to evaluate the short-term hemodynamic efficacy of successful MCA stent placement.

Acetazolamide↗
PubMed1989

Statistical issues in the analysis of the long-term carcinogenicity bioassay in small rodents: an empirical evaluation of statistical decision rules.

Data on 49 randomly selected studies from the NCI/NTP Carcinogenesis Bioassay Program were reanalyzed using four statistical decision rules to classify substances as either being negative or falling into one of three categories indicating increasing evidence of oncogenicity. The data available for analysis were the crude marginal counts of numbers of animals with specified lesions, as well as the number of animals surviving at the time the studies were terminated. Statistical analysis was based primarily on the Cochran-Armitage test for linear trend in proportions, with and without the use of historical control information. If only concurrent controls were used, classifications of carcinogenicity obtained in between 34 and 57% of the studies, depending on the decision rule used. The incorporation of historical control information into the Cochran-Armitage test statistic led to almost universal findings of carcinogenicity. The data base assembled here was used to estimate false negative and false positive rates for each of the four decision rules.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

Storytelling, statistics and hereditary thought: the narrative support of early statistics.

This paper's main contention is that some basically methodological developments in science which are apparently distant and unrelated can be seen as part of a sequential story. Focusing on general inferential and epistemological matters, the paper links occurrences separated by both in time and space, by formal and representational issues rather than social or disciplinary links. It focuses on a few limited aspects of several cognitive practices in medical and biological contexts separated by geography, disciplines and decades, but connected by long term transdisciplinary representational and inferential structures and constraints. The paper intends to show a given set of knowledge claims based on organizing statistically empirical data can be seen to have been underpinned by a previous, more familiar, and probably more natural, narrative handling of similar evidence. To achieve that this paper moves from medicine in France in the late eighteenth and early nineteenth century to the second half of the nineteenth century in England among gentleman naturalists, following its subject: the shift from narrative depiction of hereditary transmission of physical peculiarities to posterior statistical articulations of the same phenomena. Some early defenders of heredity as an important (if not the most important) causal presence in the understanding of life adopted singular narratives, in the form of case stories from medical and natural history traditions, to flesh out a special kind of causality peculiar to heredity. This work tries to reconstruct historically the rationale that drove the use of such narratives. It then shows that when this rationale was methodologically challenged, its basic narrative and probabilistic underpinings were transferred to the statistical quantificational tools that took their place.

England↗