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PubMed2004

'It might happen or it might not': how patients with multiple sclerosis explain their perception of prognostic risk.

This qualitative study aimed to examine risk perception and seriousness of wheelchair dependence in patients with multiple sclerosis. Perceived absolute risk and perceived seriousness were assessed for 2-year, 10-year and lifetime prognosis of wheelchair dependence using visual analogue scales (VAS). In semi-structured interviews, patients (n = 85) were asked to elucidate these VAS scores. Explaining perceived absolute risk, patients mentioned disease-related factors as well as psychological factors. Uncertainty about future disease progression was a predominant factor for all patients, even those with low and high perceptions of risk. Wheelchair dependence was perceived as a serious outcome primarily because of its possible implications, such as loss of independence. When perceptions of 2-year, 10-year and the lifetime prospect of wheelchair dependence were compared, it was found that patients discriminated in their perception of absolute risk, but less in that of seriousness. Comparison of quantitative and qualitative assessments indicated good construct validity for perception of the absolute risk and seriousness of wheelchair dependence.

Adult↗
PubMed2003

Conservative versus radical therapy of prostate cancer: how have recent advances in molecular markers and imaging enhanced our ability to prognosticate risk?

Recent results of several prospective phase II and phase III trials have reinforced the view that many patients with favorable-risk prostate cancer are over treated. The challenge is to identify those patients who require treatment at a point at which they are still amenable to cure, and to avoid treating those who have indolent disease and those who are incurable. This requires a combination of early detection, accurate imaging, and a selective approach to therapy. The accuracy of serum and tissue biomarkers and new imaging techniques in stratifying patients according to the risk of progression and metastasis is reviewed. The outcome of a strategy of selective intervention in good-risk patients based on prostate-specific antigen (PSA) doubling time is summarized.

Aged↗
PubMed2004

Prognostic risk of atrial fibrillation in acute myocardial infarction complicated by left ventricular dysfunction: the OPTIMAAL experience.

AIMS: The present study aimed to determine the frequency and the impact on clinical outcome of atrial fibrillation (AF) in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and left ventricular dysfunction. METHODS AND RESULTS: In the OPTIMAAL trial, 5477 patients with AMI and signs of left ventricular dysfunction were included. At baseline, 655 patients (12%) had AF, and 345 (7.2%) developed new-onset AF during follow-up (2.7 +/- 0.9 years). Older patients, patients with history of angina and worse Killip class had and developed AF more frequently (P < 0.001). Patients with AF at baseline were at increased risk relative to those without AF for mortality [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 1.32, P = 0.001] and for stroke (HR 1.77, P < 0.001). New-onset AF was associated with increased subsequent mortality for the first 30 days following randomization (HR 3.83, P < 0.001) and the entire trial period (HR 1.82, P < 0.001). Risk of stroke was increased for the first 30 days (HR 14.6, P < 0.001) and for the whole trial period (HR 2.29, P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: AF is frequently observed in patients with AMI complicated by heart failure. Current AF, and the development of new AF soon after AMI, is associated with increased risk of death and stroke.

Aged↗
PubMed2006

A new simplified immediate prognostic risk score for patients with acute myocardial infarction.

BACKGROUND: Immediate risk stratification of patients with myocardial infarction in the emergency department (ED) at the time of initial presentation is important for their optimal emergency treatment. Current risk scores for predicting mortality following acute myocardial infarction (AMI) are potentially flawed, having been derived from clinical trials with highly selective patient enrollment and requiring data not readily available in the ED. These scores may not accurately represent the spectrum of patients in clinical practice and may lead to inappropriate decision making. METHODS: This study cohort included 1212 consecutive patients with AMI who were admitted to the Mayo Clinic coronary care unit between 1988 and 2000. A risk score model was developed for predicting 30 day mortality using parameters available at initial hospital presentation in the ED. The model was developed on patients from the first era (training set--before 1997) and validated on patients in the second era (validation set-during or after 1997). RESULTS: The risk score included age, sex, systolic blood pressure, admission serum creatinine, extent of ST segment depression, QRS duration, Killip class, and infarct location. The predictive ability of the model in the validation set was strong (c = 0.78). CONCLUSION: The Mayo risk score for 30 day mortality showed excellent predictive capacity in a population based cohort of patients with a wide range of risk profiles. The present results suggest that even amidst changing patient profiles, treatment, and disease definitions, the Mayo model is useful for 30 day risk assessment following AMI.

Aged↗
PubMed2006

Carbohydrate antigen 125: an emerging prognostic risk factor in acute heart failure?

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether circulating levels of carbohydrate antigen 125 (CA125) predict subsequent 6-month all-cause mortality in patients after the index hospitalisation for acute heart failure (HF). DESIGN AND SETTING: Prospective cohort study at a single teaching centre in Spain. METHODS: 529 consecutive patients with acute HF admitted in a single university centre were analysed. In addition to the traditional clinical information, CA125 (U/ml) was measured during the early course of hospitalisation. The independent association between baseline CA125 and mortality was assessed with Cox regression analysis. The follow-up was limited to 6 months. RESULTS: 349 (66%) patients showed serum levels of CA125 >35 U/ml (established cut-off point value). At a 6-month follow-up, 89 (16.8%) deaths were identified. A positive trend between mortality and CA125 quartiles was observed; 3.8%, 15.2%, 22% and 26.5% of deaths occurred from quartile 1 to 4 of CA125 (p<0.001). Likewise, a monotonic, ascending trend in the risk ratios was estimated from the multivariable Cox model. Compared with the first quartile of CA125, the HRs (95% CI) for the second, third and fourth quartiles were 3.25 (1.20 to 8.79), 4.91 (1.88 to 12.85) and 8.41 (3.24 to 21.79), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Serum levels of CA125 obtained in patients admitted with a diagnosis of acute HF was shown to be an independent predictor of mortality up to the 6-month follow-up.

Acute Disease↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Tissue types as prognostic risk factor in hepatitis B virus infection.

OBJECTIVES: Outcome after acute hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection may be determined by the host immune system. We studied the distribution of major histocompatibility (MHC) antigens in patients who developed natural immunity against HBV and those with chronic hepatitis B. METHODS: Thirty patients positive for IgG anti-HBs and anti-HBc ('naturally immune'), 30 patients with HBsAg-positive chronic hepatitis and 30 subjects with no serological markers of HBV infection (controls) were studied. MHC class-I antigens were detected by the standard Terasaki microlymphocytotoxicity test and the MHC class-II antigens by a polymerase chain reaction using sequence-specific primers. RESULTS: In the naturally immune group, A11, B73, CW3, DRB1*16 and DQB1*05 antigens were significantly more frequent than in the control group, and B73, DRB1*04 and DRB1*13 antigens were more frequent than in the chronic hepatitis group. In the chronic hepatitis group, CW6, DRB5 and DQB1*05 antigens were significantly more frequent than in the control group, and B8, CW7, DRB1*03 and DQB1*02 antigens were more frequent than in the naturally immune group. CONCLUSIONS: Differences in alleleic frequencies of HLA among persons with natural immunity against HBV and those with chronic hepatitis B may suggest a genetic basis for persistence of HBV infection and occurrence of chronic liver disease.

Adult↗
PubMed2002

[Prognostic risk factors in children and adolescents with craniocerebral injuries with multiple trauma].

220 of 268 polytraumatized patients (82.1%) presented an additional head injury, which increased the mortality significantly. By the Hannover Polytrauma Score we could demonstrate that the severity of the polytrauma and the prognosis depended on the extent of the brain injury. Important risk factors were skull fractures and shock on arrival. 66.7% of the patients with a severe brain trauma and a skull fracture died; without this fracture, only 36.8% died. 76.1% of the children with a systolic blood pressure (SBP) > 80 mm Hg survived, but only 31.2% with a SBF < or = 80 mm Hg did not die. For all polytraumatized children we recommend a computer tomography of the head. In spite of a negative initial CT a follow up CCT should be performed.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2005

[Visual prognosis and prognostic risk factors after photocoagulation for diffuse diabetic macular edema].

PURPOSE: To investigate the efficacy of photocoagulation for diffuse diabetic macular edema. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: One hundred and fifty eyes with diffuse diabetic macular edema were treated by laser photocoagulation (grid pattern photocoagulation, in some instances combined with direct photocoagulation) and followed up more than 1 year. The visual prognosis of these cases was retrospectively studied. RESULTS: The logarithm of the minimum angle of resolution (Log MAR) final visual acuity after photocoagulation was improved more than 0.2 levels in 62 eyes (41%) of a total 150 eyes, and in 60% of 87 eyes in which preoperative visual acuity had been less than 0.5. Average visual acuity after photocoagulation reached a plateau within three months after surgery, and 84% of the eyes with 0.5 or better preoperative visual acuity achieved 0.5 or better final visual acuity. There was correlation between visual prognosis and the following preoperative factors: preoperative visual acuity, hard exudates, fluorescein leakage, grid area, hyperlipidemia, and renal failure. CONCLUSIONS: Grid photocoagulation as a treatment for diffuse diabetic macular edema is effective to improve or maintain visual acuity. Alternative treatment such as vitrectomy should be considered after three-month observation on the outcome of grid photocoagulation.

Adult↗
PubMed2005

[Acute malignant large bowel obstruction--early outcomes and prognostic risk factors].

Acute malignant large bowel obstruction is the most common cause of the large bowel obstruction. Retrospective study of 77 patients and its statistical analysis showed very serious risk factors of early death after surgery. They are: male sex, septic shock and high creatinine plasma concentration before and early relaparotomy and cardio-pulmonary complications after operation.

Acute Disease↗
PubMed1991

[Arrhythmia and anti-arrhythmia therapy as prognostic risks].

The incidence of sudden death is estimated to be 0.25%/year in the industrialized world. 30 to 40% of patients are known to be at major risk before they succumb sudden death. Etiology is usually coronary heart disease (75%), dilated and hypertensive cardiomyopathy as well as valvular disease. 75% of patients dying suddenly die from ventricular fibrillation. The most common mechanism of sudden cardiac death in heart failure is sustained ventricular tachycardia deteriorating into ventricular fibrillation, the initiating factors being single ventricular beats, ventricular pairs or nonsustained ventricular tachycardia (trigger mechanism). At least 50% of patients dying during Holter monitoring have been on antiarrhythmic treatment during the time of sudden death and this percentage is increased to 70% in patients dying from torsade de pointes ventricular tachycardia. The question that has arisen is whether suppression of such arrhythmias by antiarrhythmic agents will reduce the incidence of sudden cardiac death. Unfortunately, the patient group at highest risk - low ventricular ejection fraction and high incidence of nonsustained ventricular tachycardia episodes during 24 hour-monitoring and thus, the group most in need of arrhythmia suppression - has the lowest responder rate as well as the highest incidence of serious toxicity. Until the suppression of those arrhythmias by antiarrhythmic agents is demonstrated to improve prognosis in this patient group, routine use of antiarrhythmic agents cannot be recommended in this patient population.

Anti-Arrhythmia Agents↗
PubMed1991

Human T-cell leukemia virus type I infection as an oncogenic and prognostic risk factor in cervical and vaginal carcinoma.

The seroprevalence of human T-cell leukemia virus type I (HTLV-I) antibody in 6701 healthy females and 226 women with gynecologic malignancies, all living in an adult T-cell leukemia-endemic area in southwestern Japan, was investigated to determine whether HTLV-I infection was a risk factor influencing oncogenesis and prognosis. The seroprevalences in cervical carcinoma patients younger than 59 years and in vaginal carcinoma patients of all ages were significantly higher than in age-matched healthy controls. The ratios of observed to expected HTLV-I seroprevalence in patients younger than 59 with cervical carcinoma and in vaginal carcinoma patients were 2.92 and 7.36, respectively. Among the patients with cervical carcinoma or vaginal carcinoma, the tumor recurrence rate in HTLV-I carriers was significantly higher than that in HTLV-I seronegative patients. Our results suggest that HTLV-I infection may be oncogenic and may affect the prognosis in some patients with cervical or vaginal carcinoma.

Adolescent↗
PubMedDate not supplied

[Prognostic risk factors in patients operated on for perforated peptic ulcer. A retrospective analysis of critical factors of mortality and morbidity in a series of 40 patients who underwent simple closure surgery].

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To identify factors affecting mortality and morbidity in patients operated on for perforated peptic ulcer. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis. SETTING: University Hospital, Italy. PATIENTS: Forty patients consecutively operated on for perforated peptic ulcer by simple suture procedure performed either by laparotomy (n = 26) or laparoscopic (n = 14) approach. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Mortality was 20% (n = 8) and morbidity in survivors was 25% (n = 8). Compared to survivors, non-survivors were older (mean age 79.3 yrs. vs 60.0 yrs., p < 0.01), had worse APACHE II and SAPS scores (mean 20.1 vs 8.5, p < 0.001; and 13.1 vs. 5.5, p < 0.0001 respectively), were treated later (mean interval from outbreak of symptoms to surgery 30.8 hrs. vs. 11.1 hrs., p < 0.01), and the size of their perforation was larger (mean 15.1 mm. vs. 8.6 mm, p < 0.05). The laparoscopic approach was the only factor that significantly was associated with morbidity in survivors (p < 0.01). The presence of at least two risk factors, enhanced the probability of death. CONCLUSION: Old age, great APACHE II and SAPS scores, delay in treatment and large size of the perforation were associated significantly to mortality in perforated peptic ulcer patients. Efforts should be made perioperatively for patients having these risk factors.

APACHE↗
PubMed1997

Pregnancy and delivery prognostic risk score for women with congenital heart disease and acquired valvular heart disease.

Hemodynamic changes related to pregnancy in women with Congenital Heart Disease (ConHD) or Acquired Valvular Heart Disease (AVHD) require special medical care during pregnancy and especially immediately prior to, and after delivery. Following a five year retrospective study (1978-1982), the authors monitored prospectively over a period of 12 years (1983-1994), 378 pregnancies in 252 women with ConHD and AVHD. Based on the results of the initial clinical examination and monthly follow-up visits, a numerical risk score was assigned for each patient. The study showed good conformity between the predictive risk score values and the patient's condition in the course of pregnancy and delivery. Thus, this method represents a novel and potentially very useful clinical tool for management of pregnancy in patients with ConHD and AVHD.

Abortion, Spontaneous↗
PubMed1996

Community-acquired pneumonia in the elderly: A multivariate analysis of risk and prognostic factors.

To assess the risk and prognostic factors of community-acquired pneumonia occurring in the elderly (over age 65 yr) requiring hospitalization, two studies, case-control and cohort, were performed over an 8-mo period in a 1,000-bed university teaching hospital. We studied 101 patients with pneumonia (cases), age 78.5 +/- 7.9 yr (mean +/- SD). Each case was matched for sex, age (+/- 5 yr), and date of admission (+/- 2 d) with a control subject, without pneumonia during the preceding 3 yr, arriving at the emergency room. Etiologic diagnosis was obtained in 43 of 101 (42%) cases. The main microbial agents causing pneumonia were: Streptococcus pneumoniae (19 of 43, 44%), and Chlamydia pneumoniae (9 of 43, 21%). Gram-negative bacilli were uncommon (2 of 43, 5%). The multivariate analysis demonstrated that large-volume aspiration, and low serum albumin (< 30 mg/dl) were independent risk factors associated with the development of pneumonia. Crude mortality rate was 26% (26 of 101), while pneumonia-related mortality was 20% (20 of 101). The attributable mortality was 23% (odds ratio [OR]: 11.3; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.25 to 60.23; p < 0.0001). The multivariate analysis showed that patients had a worse prognosis if they were previously bedridden, had prior swallowing disorders, body temperature on admission was less than 37 degrees C, respiratory frequency was greater than 30/min or had three or more affected lobes on chest radiograph. Age by itself was not a significant factor related to prognosis. Among the significant risk factors, only nutritional status is probably amenable to medical intervention. The prognostic factors found in this study may help to identify, upon admission, those subjects at higher risk and who may require special observation.

Aged↗