Fillenbaum on probability-learning.
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In a multiple-cue probability learning task, participants learned to use six discrete symptoms (i.e., cues) to diagnose which of three possible flu strains a hypothetical patient suffered from. For some patients, information regarding the status of certain symptoms was not available. Various possible ways in which the missing cue information might be processed were distinguished and tested in a series of three experiments (Ns = 80, 109, and 61). The results suggest that the judged probability of the outcome variable (i.e., flu strain) was assessed by "filling in" the missing cue information with a mean value based on previous observations. The predictions of other methods of processing missing cue information are inconsistent with the data.
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Data preprocessing is needed when real-life clinical databases are used as the data sources to learn the probabilities for dynamic decision models. Data preprocessing is challenging as it involves extensive manual effort and time in developing the data operation scripts. This paper presents a framework to facilitate automated and interactive generation of the problem-specific data preprocessing scripts. The framework has three major components: 1) A model parser that parses the decision model definition, 2) A graphical user interface that facilitates the interaction between the user and the system, and 3) A script generator that automatically generates the specific database scripts for the data preprocessing. We have implemented a prototype system of the framework and evaluated its effectiveness via a case study in the clinical domain. Preliminary results demonstrate the practical promise of the framework.
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The effects of school-induced success and failure experiences on the probability-learning performances of retarded children were investigated. In previous laboratory research, the hypotheses has been suggested that failure experiences would lead to greater maximization, less patterning, and less shifting of responses than success experiences. Fifteen retarded children exposed to repeated failure in the classroom, 15 retarded children exposed to a relatively high level of success in special-education classes, and 15 nonretarded children served as subjects. All subjects were matched for MA. The hypothesis suggesting that the laboratory findings generalized to the classroom was confirmed. In addition, it was found that locus of control and need for achievement were significant correlates of probability-learning performance. However, only locus of control differentiated the subject groups.
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Multiple Cue Probability Learning (MCPL) is an important cognitive ability for all age groups that, like other cognitive abilities, depends on information processing speed and working memory capacity--skills that have been found to decline with age. The relation between age and ability to learn direct and inverse probabilistic relationships was studied in two MCPL experiments involving subjects in three age groups. In the first experiment, subjects learned two three-cue tasks following the MCPL paradigm. In the first task, all cues had a direct relation (DR) with the criterion. In the second, one cue had an inverse relation (IR) with the criterion. In the DR task, older subjects were able to learn nearly as well as younger subjects. In the IR task, older subjects performed significantly worse than younger subjects due to an inability to use the inverse cue. In a second experiment involving the IR task, task information (TI) was given, that is, the relation between each cue and the criterion was explicitly described. This eliminated the need for subjects to discover the inverse relation on their own, thus reducing the burden on working memory. Provision of TI resulted in improved performance for the 20-30 and 65-75 year old groups, but not in the 76-90 year old group. Significant differences in performance among age groups remained. These results cannot be fully explained by differences in working memory capacity. It is suggested that flexibility of functioning also plays a role.
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