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PubMed2002

2000-based national population projections for the United Kingdom and its constituent countries.

The 2000-based national population projections, carried out by the Government Actuary at the request of the Registrars General, show the population of the United Kingdom rising from 59.8 million in 2000 to nearly 65 million by 2025. Longer-term projections suggest the population will peak at nearly 66 million around 2040 and then gradually start to fall. The population will become gradually older with the median age expected to rise from 37.4 years in 2000 to 42.4 years by 2025. In 2000, there were 1.3 million (12 per cent) more children aged under 16, than people of state pensionable age. However, by 2007, the population of state pensionable age is projected to exceed the number of children.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2006

2004-based national population projections for the UK and constituent countries.

The 2004-based national population projections, carried out by the Government Actuary in consultation with the Registrars General, show the population of the United Kingdom (UK) rising from 59.8 million in 2004, passing 60 million in 2005 and 65 million in 2023, to reach 67.0 million by 2031. In the longer-term, the projections suggest that the population will continue rising beyond 2031 but at a much lower rate of growth. The population will become older with the median age expected to rise from 38.6 years in 2004 to 42.9 years by 2031. With the current plans for a common state pension age of 65 for both sexes from 2020, the number of people of working age for every person of state pensionable age is projected to fall from 3.33 in 2004 to 2.62 by 2031.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1980

[Comparison between the U.N. population projections for Latin America and actual estimates, 1950-1980].

"The purpose of this paper is to compare population projections prepared by the United Nations in the 1950's with the actual estimates for the countries and the regions of Central (including Mexico) and South America. The comparison is made in terms of (a) base population used in the projections (1950), (b) the projected and the estimated population for 1980, and (c) the projected and the estimated rates (including rates of growth) and numbers of births, deaths and migration over the 30 year period of the projections (1950-1980)." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Developing Countries↗
PubMed2003

Fertility assumptions for the 2002-based national population projections.

One of the key components of national population projections is the assumed level of fertility, which determines the number of future births in the projections. Assumptions are made in terms of the average number of children women will have over their lifetime. For the 2002-based projections this average is assumed to ultimately be 1.75 for England and for Wales, 1.60 for Scotland, and 1.80 for Northern Ireland, leading to a United Kingdom assumption of 1.74. This article explains how these overall assumptions, which are the same as assumed in the 2000-based and interim 2001-based projections, are derived. It also explains why these levels are higher than current 'period' indicators of fertility. Finally, information on more detailed age specific fertility rates, and implications for family size distributions, is given.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1998

1996-based national population projections for the United Kingdom and constituent countries.

The 1996-based national population projections, carried out by the Government Actuary in consultation with the Registrars General, show the population of the United Kingdom rising from 58.8 million in 1996 to over 62 million by 2021. The population will become gradually older with the mean age expected to rise from 38.4 years in 1996 to nearly 42 years by 2021. The number of children aged under 16 is projected to fall by 1.0 million (9 per cent) by 2021, while the number aged 65 and over is projected to increase by 2.7 million (29 per cent). Longer-term projections suggest the population will peak around 2031 and then gradually start to fall.

Actuarial Analysis↗
PubMed1992

Forecast accuracy of Australian subnational population projections.

The authors assess demographic projections made over the last 20 years for Australia. "This paper first considers the role of accuracy amongst other objectives of projection activity. Accepting accuracy as a legitimate goal, we then assess the performance of 48 sets of population projections and forecasts for states and territories of Australia prepared since 1970. Projection accuracy is assessed by reference to length of forecast horizon, population size and rate of growth. We also examine the main sources of forecast error in selected projections for each state and compare the performance of past projections with alternatives based on simple extrapolation of contemporary population trends."

Australia↗
PubMed2002

The role of population projections in environmental management.

California and other regions in the United States are becoming more populated and ethnically diverse, and thus, ecological impacts on the wildland-urban interface are a significant policy concern. In a socioeconomic assessment focused on the geographic regions surrounding four national forests in southern California, population projections are being formulated to assist in the update of forest plans. In southern California, the projected trend of explosive population growth combined with increased ethnic and racial diversity indicates four challenges for environmental management. First, patterns of recreation use on wildlands are likely to change, and management of these areas will have to address new needs. Second, as land-management agencies face changing constituencies, new methods of soliciting public involvement from ethnic and racial groups will be necessary. Third, growth in the region is likely to encroach upon wildland areas, affecting water, air, open space, and endangered species. Fourth, in order to address all these concerns in a climate of declining budgets, resource management agencies need to strengthen collaborative relationships with other agencies in the region. How environmental managers approach these changes has widespread implications for the ecological sustainability of forests in southern California.

California↗
PubMed1997

Population projections, 1991-2021.

"This information presents initial assumptions and analyzes basic results of the latest population projections for Yugoslavia, and its constituent republics and provinces, by age and sex, for the period 1991-2021, which were prepared during 1995 through co-operation of the Federal Statistical Office and the Demographic Research Centre of the Institute of Social Sciences, and were published in 1996." The projections concern only the two republics that make up present-day Yugoslavia, that is Montenegro and Serbia (with its two regions of Vojvodina, and Kosovo and Metohija).

Developed Countries↗
PubMed1990

Thalamic midline cell populations projecting to the nucleus accumbens, amygdala, and hippocampus in the rat.

The organization of the thalamic midline efferents to the amygdaloid complex, hippocampal formation, and nucleus accumbens was investigated in the rat by means of multiple retrograde fluorescent tracing. The present findings indicate that these connections derive from separate cell populations of the thalamic midline, with a low degree of divergent collateralization upon more than one of the targets examined. The neural populations projecting to the amygdala, hippocampus, or accumbens are highly intermingled throughout the thalamic midline, but display some topographical prevalence. Midline thalamo-hippocampal cells are concentrated in the nucleus reuniens; thalamo-accumbens neurons prevail in the ventral portion of the paraventricular nucleus, and in the central medial nucleus. Thalamo-amygdaloid cells display a topographical prevalence in the rostral third of the thalamic midline and are concentrated in the dorsal part of the paraventricular nucleus and in the medial part of the nucleus reuniens. Both dorsally in the paraventricular nucleus and ventrally in the nucleus reuniens, thalamo-amygdaloid cells are located closer to the ependymal lining than the neurons projecting to the hippocampus or nucleus accumbens. Further, thalamo-amygdaloid cells, especially in the paraventricular nucleus, extend their dendritic processes in the vicinity of the ependymal lining, where they arborize profusely. These features indicate a close topographical relationship of neurons projecting to the amygdala with ependymal cells. The fairly discrete origin of midline outputs to the amygdala, hippocampus, and accumbens indicates that the flow of information is conveyed through separate channels from the thalamic midline to limbic and limbic-related targets. Together with the literature on the limbic afferents to the thalamus, these findings emphasize the relationships between the thalamus and the limbic system subserved by parallel input-output routes. However, because of the overlap of the projection cell populations, the thalamic midline may represent a locus of interaction among neurons connected with different parts of the limbic system. The functional implications of these findings are discussed in relation to the "nonspecific" thalamic system, as well as to the circuits involved in memory formation.

Amnesia↗
PubMed1994

[Population projection and its principal components: the future model of population in the province of Alicante].

"In this article we analyze the different demographic patterns defining the population in the province of Alicante [Spain]. The behaviour of the demographic factors in the past and in the present is studied here, and a series of models are put into practice in order to foresee the future pattern of population.... The result shows either the effect of a possible ageing in an already aged population, as is the case of the province of Alicante, or what the job market would have to endure if the above mentioned ageing took place, increased by the possibility of an inmigration of an older population." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND FRE)

Age Distribution↗
PubMed1995

Alternative population projection scenarios by education attainment for Egypt, the Sudan and Tunisia.

"This paper presents alternative population projections for Egypt, the Sudan and Tunisia using the scenario approach developed at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Its primary objective is to show how education attainment and policies influence the future population patterns in these countries.... Section I gives a brief presentation of the scenario approach. Sections II and III show fertility and mortality conditions in Egypt, the Sudan and Tunisia.... Section V presents the stands of Governments on population policies and in shaping future population patterns. We [then] present our assumptions, scenario setting and projection results...."

Africa↗
PubMed1994

[Population projection for the Czech Republic to the year 2030].

"This article is an attempt to make a new population projection of the Czech Republic to the year 2030 based on assumptions with regard to mortality and fertility.... Four possible scenarios of population development are explored...and the basic results presented.... All of them...suggest rapid aging of Czech society after 2010...." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND RUS)

Age Distribution↗
PubMed1981

The use of official sub-national population projections in England: Phase 1, central government departments and public utilities.

"The use made of the official population projections and the derivative household and labour supply projections has been investigated recently in England through a survey of user and potential user organizations. In view of the rather complex arrangements for producing the official projections, the paper begins by providing a summary of what projections are prepared and by whom.... The main part...presents an analysis of the results of the survey...concerned with who uses the projections, the factors influencing the use and value of projections and the demands for an extension of the current service."

Developed Countries↗
PubMed1988

Social Security area population projections: 1987.

The following article, first published as Actuarial Study No. 99, describes the population projections that underlie the long-range cost estimates for the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) program, which are included in the 1987 Report of the OASDI Board of Trustees. The projections start from a recent estimate of the population in the Social Security Area by age, sex, and martial status and from an estimate of existing marriages by age of husband and age of wife. Three separate projections, denoted Alternatives I, II, and III, are developed by analyzing historical data and making three different sets of assumptions about future net immigration, birth rates, and death rates.

Actuarial Analysis↗
PubMed1997

Latest population projections for the European Union.

This article presents the results of Eurostat's latest population projections for the 15 countries of the European Union. Under the Eurostat baseline scenario, the EU population will continue to grow slowly until around the year 2025 before starting to decline. The number of young people will continue to fall, while the number of older people will increase. To greater or lesser extents, all EU countries will experience declining population growth and an ageing population.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2002

Modelling student age-groups in the subnational population projections for England: an investigation into potential improvements.

This article describes research aimed at improving modeling of student age-groups in the ONS subnational population projections for England. A number of data-sources were investigated, and the research focused on Higher Education Statistics Agency data. Although the coverage of HESA data is not sufficient to enable student populations to be projected separately, the data have been used to devise an adjustment method for the student-age population. Both the data and method will be monitored and, if appropriate, used in future projections.

Adult↗