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Socioeconomic development, health interventions and mortality decline in Costa Rica.

Costa Rica, whose life expectancy was 74 years by 1985, has reached a health level comparable to a developed country. The health achievements of this country are product of political and socioeconomic circumstances as well as of right public health policies. Until about 1970 the features of Costa Rica mortality, although somewhat better than the Latin American average, evolved in a similar way to the rest of the region. In particular, the decades of 1940s and 1950s saw dramatic improvements in life expectancy, thanks mainly to the import of low-cost, high-effectiveness health technologies. In the 1970s, however, Costa Rica departed from a regional pattern of stagnation and managed to close the gap with developed countries in terms of mortality levels. A dramatic decline in the infant mortality rate from 60 to 19 per 1,000 took place in this decade. The main determinants of this breakthrough were health interventions, notably a primary health care program, even though favorable socioeconomic conditions and a reduced fertility also played a role. Ecological data and other evidence suggest that up to three fourths of the mortality decline was accounted for contemporary improvements in public health services, with about 40 percent attributable to primary health care interventions. Furthermore, by targeting interventions on the less privileged population, these interventions had the merit of reducing geographic and socioeconomic differentials in child mortality.

Cause of Death↗

Longitudinal Gompertzian analysis of stomach cancer mortality in the U.S., 1962-1987: a thermodynamic analogy of its declining mortality.

Age-adjusted mortality rates for stomach cancer (SC) in the United States from 1962 to 1987 were subjected to longitudinal Gompertzian analysis. Age-adjusted SC mortality rate distributions between age 50 and 85 years were highly Gompertzian for each and every year for both men and women. The environmental 'temperature' or intensity factor declined (improved) 1.55-fold for men and 2.04-fold for women in 1987 as compared to 1962. If the environmental 'pressure' or frequency factor had remained constant, the age at the theoretical common intersect point would have been 56.0 years for men and 80.0 years for women and overall SC mortality would have increased. However, between 1962 and 1987, non-age-standardized annual crude SC mortality rates decreased 46.8% for men and 44.0% for women. The thermodynamic analogy for this apparent discrepancy is that the environmental 'pressure' factor has not remained constant, but rather declined 51.7% for men and 60.9% for women between 1962 and 1987. This suggests that the overall frequency of environmental challenges that contribute to SC mortality has become significantly reduced.

Age Factors↗

Declining mortality from breast cancer in Yorkshire, 1983-1998: extent and causes.

Incidence and mortality data, stage of disease and treatment information for female breast cancer were obtained for the years 1975-1999 for the former Yorkshire Regional Health Authority area, from the Northern and Yorkshire Cancer Registry and Information Service. Deaths by age group and 3-year calendar period were separated into those occurring among cases diagnosed 0-2 and 3-4 years preceding death (short- and medium-term survivors, respectively), and among longer-term survivors and age-adjusted rates were calculated separately by survival time. The 3-year survival of cases incident in 1991-1999 and in 1982-1990 were compared, adjusting for stage and treatment. Breast cancer mortality in Yorkshire stopped increasing around 1983 and has since consistently declined, primarily among short- and medium-term survivors. The 3-year survival was significantly improved in cases diagnosed in 1991-1999, compared with 1982-1990, in all age groups (hazard ratio (HR)=0.75, 95% c.l. 0.71-0.78). The improvement was least in the 65+ years age group (HR=0.83, 95% c.l. 0.79-0.88), intermediate in the youngest (<50 years) cases (HR=0.71, 95% c.l. 0.63-0.80) and greatest in the age group 50-64 years, offered routine screening after 1988 (HR=0.51, 95% c.l. 0.47-0.57). The benefit for cases diagnosed in the 1990s persisted, but was reduced after adjustment for stage in cases <65 years, while it disappeared in older cases (HR=1.01). Below age 65 years, the use of systemic therapy increased substantially, but did not explain the residual improvements in short-term prognosis. A greater decline in breast cancer mortality in Yorkshire from 1982 to 1984 was observed among short- and medium-term, than in longer-term, survivors. Much of the improvement in survival in cases <65 years could be attributed to a more favourable stage at diagnosis, whereas this accounted for nearly all the improvement in survival among older cases. Systemic therapy had little or no impact on 3-year survival. Continuing declines in mortality can be expected in the current decade, as a result of the long-term effects of both mammography screening and increased use of systemic therapy.

Adult↗

Applying Lee-Carter under conditions of variable mortality decline.

The Lee-Carter method of mortality forecasting assumes an invariant age component and most applications have adopted a linear time component. The use of the method with Australian data is compromised by significant departures from linearity in the time component and changes over time in the age component. We modify the method to adjust the time component to reproduce the age distribution of deaths, rather than total deaths, and to determine the optimal fitting period in order to address non-linearity in the time component. In the Australian case the modification has the added advantage that the assumption of invariance is better met. For Australian data, the modifications result in higher forecast life expectancy than the original Lee-Carter method and official projections, and a 50 per cent reduction in forecast error. The model is also expanded to take account of age-time interactions by incorporating additional terms, but these are not readily incorporated into forecasts.

Australia↗

Declining mortality rates from ischemic heart disease in Australia.

Ischemic heart disease is the major cause of death in Australia. Australian attack and mortality rates from this disease are high compared with most other countries. Over the last thirty years there have been remarkable changes in heart disease death rates which rose from the 1950's until around 1965-7 and then declined by about 40% over the period 1965-7 to 1980-81. Although the pattern of this decline was similar for most age groups and both sexes it varied among subgroups of the population defined by country of birth, geographic region and occupation. For example, Australian-born men initially had higher death rates than immigrants and they experienced relatively greater declines; Perth and Adelaide (with low initial rates) had similar declines to Sydney and Brisbane (with high rates); professionals (with the lowest rates) had the greatest decline among occupational groups. While the decline in mortality is encouraging the cause is still unclear so control programmes must proceed, to some extent, by guesswork. If the subpopulations with high mortality can achieve rates comparable with subpopulations with low rates further substantial decline in heart disease mortality is possible.

Adult↗

Declining mortality from congenital heart disease related to innovations in diagnosis and treatment: a population-based study.

The majority of live births with severe congenital cardiac malformations that do not undergo intervention of some form die prematurely. The population of Malta provides an ideal closed cohort from which to monitor trends. We have observed a significant declining specific mortality from congenital heart disease, and circumstantial evidence relates this decline to the introduction of new techniques used in the diagnosis and treatment of these malformations.

Cohort Studies↗

Declining mortality from stroke in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania. Trends in case fatality and severity of disease, 1971-1980.

Mortality rates for stroke in 1971, 1974, 1977, and 1980 were obtained for residents of Allegheny County in western Pennsylvania. Hospital case fatality ratios were also obtained in the same 4 years for those discharged with the diagnosis of stroke (ICD 430-438 of the Eighth and Ninth Revisions of the International Classification of Disease) in two large hospitals (greater than 400 beds). Age-adjusted mortality rates per 100,000 population have declined significantly in this period for the whole county as well as for the four sex-race groups. Case fatality ratio in the two hospitals of the study has decreased from 19.6 to 11%. A change in the severity of the disease manifested by a reduction in the number of comatose patients has occurred, and this reduction in comatose patients was responsible for greater than 80% of the decline in case fatality ratio. Coma appears to be the best predictor of mortality among hospitalized stroke cases (r = 0.6, p less than 0.00001). The recent introduction of computed tomography for the diagnosis of stroke in the late 1970s was accompanied by a twofold increase in the survivorship of stroke patients. However, this increase in survivorship may reflect selection bias and is based on ecological association. Further studies are needed to examine the role of computed tomography in improving survival.

Age Factors↗

Why did maternal mortality decline in Matlab?

In 1991, an article on the Maternity Care Program in Matlab, Bangladesh, reported a substantial decline in direct obstetric deaths in the intervention area, but not in the control area. The decline was attributed primarily to the posting of midwives at the village level. In this article, data are presented from the same period and area on a variety of intermediate events. They indicate that the decline in deaths was probably due to the combined efforts of community midwives and the physicians at the Matlab maternity clinic. Their ability to refer patients to higher levels of care was important. The data further indicate that the decline in deaths depended upon the functioning of the government hospital in Chandpur, where cesarean sections and blood transfusions were available. Midwives might also have made a special contribution by providing early termination of pregnancy, which is legal in Bangladesh.

Abortion, Induced↗

The increasing incidence and declining mortality of ruptured uterus in Enugu.

A 10-year review of ruptured uterus at the University of Nigeria Teaching Hospital disclosed an incidence of 1 in 500 deliveries. The average incidence for booked patients alone was 1 in 1271 deliveries. The maternal and perinatal mortalities were 17% and 91% respectively, while the contributions of ruptured uterus to the overall hospital maternal and perinatal mortalities for the period under review were 4.1 and 2.6% respectively. In 1978, the average incidence of ruptured uterus in all patients delivered at the hospital increased from 1 in 787 in the 1st 5 years to 1 in 330 in the 2nd 5 years, while the maternal mortality from ruptured uterus decreased from 27% in the 1st 1/2 to 10% in the 2nd 1.2 of the study. The decline in maternal mortality in this environment is due to better availability of stored blood and management which included subtotal hysterectomy in many cases.

Africa↗

Declining mortality and improving survival from Wilms' tumor.

Mortality from kidney cancer in the United States declined dramatically over the period 1940-1969. This trend was nearly proportional to the increases in survival for 644 U.S. children reported to the End Results Group, National Cancer Institute. The improvements in survival occurred for all stages of disease and appeared to result from therapeutic advances rather than earlier detection. Total incidence trends showed no consistent change, but a shift toward female preponderance resembled that seen in the mortality statistics and suggests sex differences in etiology.

Adolescent↗

Declining mortality from subarachnoid hemorrhage: changes in incidence and case fatality from 1985 through 2000.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Northern Sweden has one of the highest incidence rates of subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) among the populations covered by the WHO MONICA (Monitoring of Trends and Determinants in Cardiovascular Disease) Project, approximately twice as high as in the other populations in Europe. In this study, trends in incidence, 28-day case fatality (CF), and mortality in SAH were followed over a 16-year period. METHODS: Since 1985, all SAHs in northern Sweden among patients 25 to 74 years old have been validated using strict MONICA criteria. From 1985 through 2000, 392 men and 592 women had SAH. During 3 years, 1997 to 1999, SAH among those aged 75 and older were also included. RESULTS: The total incidence among those 25 years and older was 13.3 per 100 000 in men and 24.4 per 100 000 in women. During the 16 years of observation, age standardized incidence in the group aged 25 to 74 years decreased significantly in men (P for trend <0.0001) but remained essentially unchanged in women (P for trend=0.64). The 28-day CF for all years was 36.5% in men, with no significant trend (P=0.7). In women, average CF was 35%, with a significant decline (P=0.003). The annual mortality decreased significantly in both sexes (by 3.87 [95% CI+/-2.75 percentage points] in men and 3.97 [95% CI+/-2.29] in women). CONCLUSIONS: The decline in SAH mortality has different explanations in men (declining incidence) and in women (declining CF).

Adult↗

Declining mortality in the immature: medical or biological effect?

A steady and significant decline in the proportions of liveborn infants who died in the first week from problems associated with immaturity occurred among Sheffield babies born between 1947 and 1979. The decline occurred in all three maternity units, regardless of the availability of neonatal care facilities. The rate of decline in the best equipped and best staffed hospital, however, was significantly greater during the 1970s than would have been predicted from the trend in earlier years and in contrast to the other hospitals. This greater decline shows a closer temporal association with a reorganisation of labour wards and nurseries than with the introduction of advanced equipment but also correlates with an increasing abortion rate among women who would be expected to have premature deliveries. Factors responsible for the secular decline have not been identified, but it is postulated that Sheffield's mothers are bearing healthier children as a result of improvements in maternal health which are themselves a consequence of changes during girlhood.

Birth Weight↗

Declining mortality from hypertension and stroke.

Recorded mortality from hypertension and stroke has decreased dramatically in most countries during the last 50 to 75 years. The reported reduction in mortality may be due to changes in diagnostic fashions or coding procedures. However, the magnitude and consistency of the decline suggests the occurrence of a true decrease. The possibility that better treatment of hypertension is responsible for the reduction in mortality is attractive. However, based on temporal relationships, it seems more likely that much of the fall has resulted from an alteration in the determinants of blood pressure. Increasing use of antihypertensive drug therapy may account for an acceleration in the decline of stroke mortality during the last decade. If so, this represents one of the first tangible benefits of the massive public health efforts to detect and treat hypertension in the community.

Age Factors↗