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Meteorologically adjusted ground level ozone trends in southern Taiwan.

Two methods were used to calculate the meteorologically adjusted ground level ozone trends in southern Taiwan. The first method utilized is a robust linear regression method. The second approach uses a multilayer perceptron (MLP) artificial neural network (ANN) method. The observations obtained from 16 monitoring stations were analyzed and divided into six groups by hierarchical divisive clustering procedure. The daily maximum 1 and 8 h ozone concentrations for each group are then calculated. The meteorologically adjusted trends obtained by linear regression and MLP methods are smaller than the unadjusted trends for all groups and average time. It indicts that the meteorological conditions in Taiwan tend to increase ambient ozone concentrations in recent years.

Environmental Monitoring↗

Impacts of some meteorological parameters on SO2 and TSP concentrations in Erzurum, Turkey.

The air pollution is the one of the most important environmental problems in Erzurum, situated in the eastern of Turkey, during winter periods. The unfavorable climate as well as the city's topography, and inappropriate urbanization cause serious air pollution problems. The air pollutant concentrations in a city have a close relationship with its meteorological parameters. In the present study, the relationship between daily average total suspended particulate (TSP) and sulphur dioxide (SO2) concentrations with meteorological factors, such as wind speed, temperature, relative humidity, pressure and precipitation, in 1995-2002 winter seasons was statistically analyzed using the stepwise multiple linear regression analysis. According to the results obtained through analysis, higher TSP and SO2 concentrations are strongly related to colder temperatures, lower wind speed, higher pressure system and weakly lower precipitation and higher relative humidity. The statistical models of SO2 and TSP including meteorological parameters gave R2 of 0.74 and 0.88, respectively. Furthermore, the correlation between the previous day's SO2, TSP concentrations and actual concentrations of these pollutants on that day was investigated and found as 0.84 and 0.53, respectively. In order to develop this model, previous day's SO2 and TSP concentrations were added to the equations. The new model for SO2 enhanced considerably (R2 = 0.92), but for TSP new model was not enhanced (R2 = 0.89).

Air Pollutants↗

Urban meteorological modelling for nuclear emergency preparedness.

The main objectives of the current EU project "Integrated Systems for Forecasting Urban Meteorology, Air Pollution and Population Exposure" (FUMAPEX) are the improvement of meteorological forecasts for urban areas, the connection of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models to urban air pollution and population dose models, the building of improved urban air quality information and forecasting systems, and their application in cities in various European climates. In addition to the forecast of the worst air-pollution episodes in large cities, the potential use of improved weather forecasts for nuclear emergency management in urban areas, in case of hazardous releases from nuclear accidents or terror acts, is considered. Such use of NWP data is tested for the Copenhagen metropolitan area and the Øresund region. The Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) is running an experimental version of the HIRLAM NWP model over Zealand including the Copenhagen metropolitan area with a horizontal resolution of 1.4km, thus approaching the city-scale. This involves 1-km resolution physiographic data with implications for the urban surface parameters, e.g. surface fluxes, roughness length and albedo. For the city of Copenhagen, the enhanced high-resolution NWP forecasting will be provided to demonstrate the improved dispersion forecasting capabilities of the Danish nuclear emergency preparedness decision-support system, the Accident Reporting and Guidance Operational System (ARGOS), used by the Danish Emergency Management Agency (DEMA). Recently, ARGOS has been extended with a capability of real-time calculation of regional-scale atmospheric dispersion of radioactive material from accidental releases. This is effectuated through on-line interfacing with the Danish Emergency Response Model of the Atmosphere (DERMA), which is run at DMI. For local-scale modelling of atmospheric dispersion, ARGOS utilises the Local-Scale Model Chain (LSMC), which makes use of high-resolution DMI-HIRLAM NWP model data provided to DEMA by DMI four times a day under operational surveillance and covering Denmark and surroundings. The integration of DERMA in ARGOS is effectuated through automated on-line digital communication and exchange of data. The calculations are carried out in parallel for each NWP model to which DMI has access, thereby providing a mini-ensemble of dispersion forecasts for the emergency management.

Air Pollutants, Radioactive↗

Association of meteorological factors with suicide.

OBJECTIVE: To identify weather factors associated with an increased risk of suicide. In a number of prior studies an influence of meteorological conditions on the incidence of suicide or attempted suicide has been suggested. METHOD: Official data on the suicide cases of the state of Tyrol, Austria, assessed over a period of 6 years (n = 702) were correlated with a number of meteorological factors assessed at eight weather stations. RESULTS: The risk of committing suicide was significantly higher on days with high temperatures, low relative humidity or a thunderstorm and on days following a thunderstorm. The multiple logistic regression analysis left "temperature" and "thunderstorm on the preceding day" as significant factors, even after adjustment for sociodemographic and geographical variables. CONCLUSION: Within the interaction of psychological and environmental influences in the development of suicidal ideation and behaviour, specific meteorological conditions may additionally contribute to the risk of suicide in predisposed individuals.

Austria↗

Remotely sensed surrogates of meteorological data for the study of the distribution and abundance of arthropod vectors of disease.

This paper gives an overview of how certain meteorological data used in studies of the population dynamics of arthropod vectors of disease may be predicted using remotely sensed, satellite data. Details are given of the stages of processing necessary to convert digital data arising from satellite sensors into ecologically meaningful information. Potential sources of error in these processing steps are also highlighted. Relationships between ground-measured meteorological variables (saturation deficit, ground temperature and rainfall) and data from both the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's, polar-orbiting, meteorological satellites and the geostationary, Meteosat satellite are defined and examples detailed for Africa. Finally, the current status of existing satellite platforms and future satellite missions are reviewed and potential data availability discussed. How such satellite-based predictions have proved valuable in understanding the distribution of tsetse fly species in Côte d'Ivoire and Burkina Faso will be the subject of a future review.

Africa↗

Meningococcal disease and meteorological conditions in Auckland, New Zealand.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of the study was to explore and model the relationship between meteorological variables and meningococcal disease notifications in Auckland during an ongoing group B meningococcal disease epidemic. METHODS: An ecological study design was used to investigate the relationship between 1,097 notified cases of meningococcal disease from January 1992 to December 1998 among residents of Auckland's three health districts and various meteorological variables. Descriptive epidemiology and Poisson regression modelling were used to describe this relationship. FINDINGS: The study found that the occurrence of meningococcal disease varied with season, increased with high humidity and cooler temperatures and appeared to decline with prolonged periods of heavy rain. Poisson regression analysis showed a significant relationship between the expected number of cases developing meningococcal disease on a given day and season and temperature. DISCUSSION: The results of the modelling analysis provide the initial work for the future development of a predictive tool to forecast the magnitude and duration of the annual peak in meningococcal disease incidence using routine notification data and meteorological recordings, thus allowing for better management of the public health workload and interventions, and the appropriate timing of media campaigns.

Disease Notification↗

Effect of season and meteorological conditions on community noise annoyance.

More than 80 000 residents' responses to transportation noise from 42 studies conducted at different times of year provide statistical estimates of the effects of season and meteorological conditions on community response to noise. The strongest evidence for a seasonal effect comes from 7 years of continuous daily interviewing of nationally representative probability samples in the Netherlands. Long-term annoyance with noise is slightly, but statistically significantly, higher in the summer than in the winter. Analyses of 41 other surveys drawn from diverse countries, climates, and times of year also provide evidence that noise annoyance varies over the year, is increased by temperature, and may be increased by more sunshine, less precipitation, and reduced wind speeds. These findings are not sufficiently precise to determine whether the apparent relationships with meteorological conditions are only the result of seasonal variations or are also the result of differences in the climate at different locations. There is not consistent evidence that the meteorological conditions on the day of the interview or the immediately preceding days have any more effect on long-term noise annoyance measures than do the conditions over the immediately preceding weeks or months.

Affect↗

The accurate estimation of meteorological profiles employing ANNs.

The lack of meteorological measurements at a location of interest (target location) constitutes a problem that is crucial for the purposes of both weather forecasting and energy system design/validation. This paper constitutes a pilot study for the accurate estimation of meteorological values at a target location employing the meteorological measurements collected at a nearby (reference) location. Artificial neural networks are investigated and compared with traditional estimation methods such as linear models of first and higher orders and the non-linear model. The significance of the improvement obtained via the estimation--and especially the artificial neural network approach--over simply considering the measurements at the reference location is demonstrated in a number of energy applications.

Algorithms↗

Association of occurrence of aneurysmal bleeding with meteorologic variations in the north of France.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Previous reports have established that the incidence of stroke may be influenced by meteorologic variations. However, no significant correlation was clearly demonstrated concerning aneurysmal bleeding. METHODS: From January 1, 1989, to December 31, 1991, 238 patients with angiographically confirmed diagnoses of subarachnoid hemorrhage were registered in the North of France region. For each day, the weather variables were provided by the national meteorologic office (Meteo France). We compared the meteorologic variables of days when subarachnoid hemorrhage occurred with the variables of days without subarachnoid hemorrhage in a multivariate model. RESULTS: We observed a seasonal pattern in the occurrence of subarachnoid hemorrhage, with a low frequency of rupture in June and July and maximum frequency in April and September (P < .05). The days of occurrence were associated with short duration of sunshine (P < .00006), low minimal level of hygrometry (P < .0002), low maximal temperature (P < .005), and low atmospheric pressure the day before the event (P < .05). CONCLUSIONS: Aneurysmal bleeding was significantly associated with weather variables. Cold-induced hypertension may explain these fluctuations in the occurrence of aneurysmal bleeding.

Adult↗

Meteorological factors involved in Japanese encephalitis virus infection in cattle.

From 1982 to 1987 a total of 4,371 dairy cattle in Saitama Prefecture, were examined for levels of hemagglutination inhibition (HI) antibody to Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) and the correlation with meteorological factors and an antibody positive rate was studied. Positivity rates of HI antibody from July to October each year (Yi) ranged from 58.8 to 88.0% with a considerable annual variation. Simple regression analysis of Yi with the comparative meteorological value (Xi) was determined from mean temperatures (Ti, j-1), rainfalls (Ri, j-1) for 10-day-periods each, and the number of days showing 25 degrees C or above (ti, j-1) from June to September, which yielded a correlation coefficient of 0.8147 (p less than 0.05) and an equation for estimated HI antibody positivity rate: Yi = -0.04Xi+79.9 (p less than 0.05). Multiple regression analysis with the power values of three meteorological parameters as independent variables and Yi as the dependent variable, showed a multiple correlation coefficient of 0.987 (p less than 0.05) and a multiple regression equation: Yi = -3991T1/13-0.0035R-12+1978t1/9+4187 (p less than 0.05), giving estimated positivity rates almost equal to the values from the observations. Therefore, a predictive equation was formulated reflecting positive and negative correlations of sero-positivity with the temperature and the precipitation, respectively.

Animals↗

Characterizing population dynamics of Aedes sollicitans (Diptera: Culicidae) using meteorological data.

Numerous studies have investigated the role of weather on insect species. For mosquitoes, these studies have yielded mixed results. Although it is clear that weather impacts mosquito population dynamics, these investigations have failed to accurately characterize their fluctuations. We use a novel graphical method to examine large numbers of meteorological aggregations of varying lengths and lags simultaneously to establish relationships between these summary variables and mosquito counts, to gain a better understanding of the weather effects. Poisson regression models were developed to characterize the population dynamics of Aedes sollicitans (Walker) by using meteorological data and a 34-yr set of daily mosquito count data. The models accurately characterize mosquito dynamics over time and space. The aggregated meteorological variables included in the model were lowest minimum tides between days 27 and 14 before trapping, total precipitation between days 22 and 9, total precipitation on day 1 and the day of trapping, cooling degree-days on day 0, average minimum relative humidity between days 28 and 9, lowest stream flow from day 11 to day 0, and lowest minimum temperature between days 28 and 13.

Aedes↗

Hematocrit and stroke in black Africans under tropical climate and meteorological influence.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the relationship between hematocrit and risk of fatal and non-fatal stroke in conjunction with meteorological variations. DESIGN: Prospective study of a series of Africans living in Kinshasa, Congo, followed up for 5 years. SUBJECTS: A total of 1,032 unselected patients consecutively admitted to hospitals for acute stroke. Main outcome measures. Fatal and non-fatal ischemic or hemorrhagic strokes. The association of hematocrit with stroke morbidity and mortality and meteorological variables were evaluated by simple or multiple linear regression and logistic regression. RESULTS: Patients were aged 53.7 +/- 12.1 years. Hematocrit was mostly correlated with mean ambient air temperature (r = 0.124; p < 0.001) and atmospheric pressure at 6 a.m GMT (r = 0.157; p < 0.001). Patients with hematocrit > 40% presented the highest levels of systolic blood pressure, fibrinogen, body temperature, resting heart rate, duration of coma and incidence of all stroke types and ischemic stroke (p < 0.001). Hematocrit > 40% was associated with stroke mortality (Odds ratio, 6.2, 4.5-8.6; p < 0.001). The risk of stroke mortality was multiplied by 21, 18.3 and 4.2 in conditions of a mean ambient air temperature > 28 degrees C, atmospheric pressure 975-977 mm Hg and body temperature > 37 degrees C respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that higher hematocrit is associated with an increased risk of stroke morbidity and mortality, particularly ischemic stroke at noon. This risk is probably mediated by increased susceptibility of African older hypertensive subjects to meteorological variations.

Adolescent↗

[The influence of meteorological factors for frequency of Herpes simplex keratitis].

HYPOTHESIS: The variation of the meteorological factors could be a stress for the organism, which could determine the start of some diseases. MATERIAL AND METHOD: We studied 252 cases of herpes simplex keratitis which had been hospitalized in Eye Clinic of Cluj between 1983-1991. The selection criteria were: known diagnosis; day of the rise could be exactly established; disease was taken place in Cluj or in region not longer than 30 km on Somes Valley. The meteorological parameters were collected by specialist from the Meteorological Station of the city and from the Cluj's Airport. The results were verified statistical and were guaranted by p = 0.05. RESULTS: The herpes simplex keratitis are more frequently in days with a temperature higher and an atmospheric pressure lower than the average value of the season. DISCUSSIONS: We drew a possible pathogenic mechanism to explained the reactivation of the virus under the influence of warm weather.

Adult↗

Mesoscale meteorological modelling for Hong Kong-application of the MC2 model.

This paper describes the set-up and application of a non-hydrostatic Canadian meteorological numerical model (MC2) for mesoscale simulations of wind field and other meteorological parameters over the complex terrain of Hong Kong. Results of the simulations of one case are presented and compared with the results of radiosonde and aircraft measurements. The model is proved capable of predicting high-resolution, three-dimensional fields of wind and other meteorological parameters within the Hong Kong territory, using reasonable computer time and memory resources.

Air Pollutants↗

Estimation of atmospheric mixing heights over large areas using data from airport meteorological stations.

For this study, ground and sounding meteorological data at 16 airports were used for estimating the atmospheric mixing heights in Hebei Province of China, including Beijing and Tanjing areas. Three methods were compared for this purpose, which are the dry adiabatic method, the conventional Nozaki model, and a modified Nozaki model. The feasibility of using airport meteorological data to determine mixing heights in large area was verified through the use of measured mixing heights and observed SO2 vertical profiles. The study not only estimated the mixing heights over large areas but also compared different early morning sounding temperature profiles to identify feasibility of using 2:00 a.m. sounding profiles to estimate mixing height by the dry adiabatic method. The paper also described the mixing heights over different areas such as mountain, sea boundary and plain areas. The results have considerable significance for air quality prediction and environmental management. A novel approach to estimation of atmospheric mixing heights over large area is introduced, requiring only the input of readily available airport meteorological data.

Air Movements↗

[Meteorologic conditions and esophageal varices rupture].

BACKGROUND: While meteorologic conditions are thought to be related to the incidence of certain cardiac and cerebrovascular events, very little information is available concerning the onset of variceal bleeding. We undertook this study to determine whether there is any correlation between esophageal variceal hemorrhage and several meteorologic and astronomic parameters. METHODS: Sixty-seven episodes of bleeding from ruptured esophageal varices observed in 52 patients from southern Tunisia during a 7-Year period were studied retrospectively. All patients underwent endoscopic examination within 24 hours of admission. The date of the event (variceal rupture) was considered--if no stigmates of active bleeding were found at endoscopy--as the day of occurrence of the hematemesis and the day preceding melena. Meteorologic readings (11 parameters) plus moon-cycle, circadian and seasonal distribution of the 67 days of variceal bleeding in comparison with a control period of days randomly selected among 134 days without rupture. RESULTS: No relationship was found between variceal bleeding and mean atmospheric pressure, daily hours of sunshine, nebulosity, direction and velocity of wind and mean humidity. On the contrary, a significant correlation was observed with the mean temperature (18 degrees C vs 21.16 degrees C; p=0003), rainfall (p<0.01) and stormy weather (p=0.008), the latter being the only parameter retained as an independent factor at multivariate analysis: OR=13.37 (95% CI=1.5-118.5). Furthermore, a negative correlation was found with full moon but only at univariate analysis (p=0.04). The seasonal distribution of variceal bleeding episodes showed the highest percentage during winter with a significant variation at multivariate analysis: OR=3.2 (95% IC=1.6-6.54). Occurrence of variceal bleeding also showed a circadian variation with the higher prevalence night between 6 and 0 PM (p<0.001).

Adult↗

[Effects of meteorological factors and mineral elements on the content of resveratrol in Polygonum cuspidatum rootstalk].

By determining monthly the content of resveratrol and eight mineral elements (Ca, Cu, Fe, K, Mg, Na, Zn, Mn) in the rootstalk of Polygonum cuspidatum, by considering the dynamic meteorological factors and by analyzing the principal components, we are investigating the dynamic relationship laws among mineral elements, meteorological factors and the content of resveratrol in Polygonum cuspidatum rootstalk in varied seasons. The results indicated that the correlation coefficient between Cu and Fe; between Mg and K; between Mg and Zn; between K and Zn; between Ca and average sunlight hours per month are 0.812, 0.871, 0.793, 0.729, 0.602. Their correlation is markedly in the positive 0.01 levels. The correlation coefficient between Cu and average air temperature in a month; between Mn and average air temperature in a month; between Fe and K are -0.738, -0.712, -0.766. Their correlation is markedly in negative 0.01 levels. The correlation between Cu and the content of resveratrol is markedly in negative 0.05 levels. Of the five principal factors affecting the content of resveratrol, two were found to be principal: "mineral element factors of promoting enzyme reacts" and "the meteorological factors of high temperature and strong shines". The percentage results of these two principal are 33.539% and 33.358%, making a total of 68.897%. The two factors above are also the main reasons for the variation of Polygonum cuspidatum resveratrol. A regression equation was set up through correlation and regression analysis between the changing content of resveratrol and the principal component.

Calcium↗

[How to predict the date of the start of the pollination of a plant from the meteorological data: the example of ragweed at Lyon].

The pollen of Ambrosia, highly allergenic, can be found in high quantities in the French regions of Burgundy, Auvergne and mostly a great part of the Rhône-Alpes region. The aim of this study was to establish some forecast models of the Starting Date of the Pollen season (SDP) of Ambrosia, in order to provide early information to allergists and allergic people. The pollen data came from the Hirst trap set up in Lyon since 1987 by the RNSA, and the meteorological data for the same period were provided by Météo-France. Two models were used, a sum of daily average temperatures and a multiple regression on all the 10-day period meteorological data. The results were quite accurate, except for 2003 with the temperature sums, probably because of very special meteorological conditions. So the models will have to be updated in this way.

Air↗