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Life table methods for assessing the dynamics of U.S. nursing home utilization: 1976-1977.

One likely consequence of the aging of the U.S. population is the growth of the number of persons in nursing homes. As the numbers of persons in nursing homes increase so will the amount of resources required to keep them in those homes. This will make it increasingly important to understand the dynamics of nursing home utilization so that we can more effectively plan the allocation of resources. Unfortunately, we lack direct information on the dynamics of nursing home utilization both because of the expense of implementing longitudinal studies to gather such information and because the available data on current residents are inappropriate to study the dynamics of utilization because of several types of bias. Demographic methods are presented that can be applied to survey data to remove sample biases from the data and permit study of the dynamics of the utilization of facilities for the total U.S. nursing home population and for various of its components.

Actuarial Analysis↗

[Application of the life table method to the estimation of late complications of normal tissues after radiotherapy].

In order to evaluate the treatment results of radiotherapy it is important to estimate the degree of complications of the surrounding normal tissues as well as the frequency of tumor control. In this report, the cumulative incidence rate of the late radiation injuries of the normal tissues was calculated using the modified actuarial method (Cutler-Ederer's method) or Kaplan-Meier's method, which is usually applied to the calculation of the survival rate. By the use of this method of calculation, an accurate cumulative incidence rate over time can be easily obtained and applied to the statistical evaluation of the late radiation injuries.

Actuarial Analysis↗

National health objectives for the year 2000: the demographic impact of health promotion and disease prevention.

BACKGROUND: The national objectives in Healthy People 2000, drafted by health professionals aware of currently available public health interventions, represent a wealth of information about near-term future mortality and morbidity. METHODS: Life table methods were used to calculate the impact of projected changes in mortality and activity limitation rates on life expectancy and expected disability years. RESULTS: Meeting the mortality objectives would increase life expectancy at birth by 1.5 to 2.1 years, raising life expectancy to 76.6 to 77.2 years. In addition, meeting the target for disability from chronic conditions would increase the number of years of life without activity limitations from 66.8 years to 69.3-69.7 years. If the targets for coronary heart disease and unintentional injury were changed to reflect recent trends, a greater improvement in life expectancy at birth would be achieved: from 1.8 to 2.7 years to 76.9 to 77.8 years. CONCLUSION: Meeting the targets would have an important demographic impact. Including changes in the coronary heart disease and injuries targets, life expectancy in the year 2000 would be above the middle of the ranges used in current Census Bureau projections.

Aged↗

Is acculturation a risk factor for early smoking initiation among Chinese American minors? A comparative perspective.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the extent to which Chinese American and white minors differ in age of smoking initiation, and to determine the effect of acculturation on smoking initiation. DESIGN: Cross-sectional telephone surveys. SETTING: Stratified random samples of the state of California, United States. SUBJECTS: 347 Chinese American and 10 129 white adolescents aged 12 through 17 years, from the California Tobacco Survey (1990-93) and the California Youth Tobacco Survey (1994-96). OUTCOME MEASURES: Hazards (risk) of smoking initiation by age, smoking initiation rate, cumulative smoking rate, mean age of smoking initiation, and acculturation status. STATISTICAL METHODS: Life table methods, proportional hazards models, and chi(2) tests. RESULTS: The risk of smoking initiation by age among Chinese American minors was about a third of that among white minors. The risk for Chinese Americans continued to rise even in later adolescence, in contrast to that for whites, which slowed after 15 years of age. Acculturation was associated significantly with smoking onset among Chinese Americans. Acculturation, smoking among social network members, attitudes toward smoking, and perceived benefits of smoking were associated with the difference in hazards of smoking onset between Chinese American minors and their white counterparts. CONCLUSIONS: Chinese American adolescents had a lower level and a different pattern of smoking onset than white adolescents. Levels of acculturation and other known risk factors were associated with the hazards of smoking initiation among Chinese American minors and with the difference in smoking initiation between the Chinese and white adolescents. Tobacco prevention policies, strategies, and programmes for ethnically diverse populations should take acculturation factors into account.

Acculturation↗

Rebleeding, secondary ischemia, and timing of operation in patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the time course of secondary ischemia and first rebleeding and the relation between the timing of operation and the time course of secondary ischemia in a consecutive series of patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). METHODS: Life table methods were used to assess the daily rates of ischemia and of rebleeding on day 0, day 1 to 3, day 4 to 10, day 11 to 14, and day 15 to 21. The authors compared the time course of secondary ischemia between patients operated within 4 days of SAH and those operated after 10 days. RESULTS: Of 346 patients included, 220 were operated, 131 within 4 days and 74 after 10 days. The rebleed rate was highest on the day of the initial hemorrhage, then diminished, and increased slightly again during the second week. The rate of secondary ischemia was highest on day 4, diminished after day 10, but peaked again from day 14 to 18 for patients who were operated later than 10 days after aneurysmal rupture. The peak rate of ischemia was much higher after early than after late operation. Although patients with early operation were in a better clinical condition on admission, with a relatively low risk of secondary ischemia, the overall rate of secondary ischemia was as high as in patients with delayed operation. From day 11 to 21 the rebleed rate was higher than the rate of secondary ischemia. CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate that operation is a risk factor for ischemia, especially when performed early. If operation is postponed, it should be planned soon after day 10, because of the relatively high rebleed rate from day 11 to 21.

Brain Ischemia↗

How Fast Can the Racial Gap in Life Expectancy Between Whites and Blacks Be Eliminated?

BACKGROUND: The racial gap in life expectancy between whites and blacks fluctuated from 7.6 to 5.7 years from 1970-1996, but the causes of this gap and the years required to eliminate it remain unclear. This paper analyzes the leading causes of death and how they contribute to the racial gap in life expectancy, and estimates the number of years required to eliminate this gap. METHODS: Standard abridged life table methods and life table partitioning techniques were used to estimate the total and the cause-specific racial gap in life expectancy. Cause-specific mortality rates by age, sex, and race in the United States from 1970-1996 were obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The predictions of years needed to eliminate the racial gap in life expectancy are based on international and domestic trends in life expectancy improvement. RESULTS: The racial gap in life expectancy declined before 1982, increased from 1982 to 1989, and slowly declined after 1989. In 1996, about 54% and 62% of the racial gap was attributable to cancer, heart disease, homicide, and HIV for females and males, respectively. If blacks could experience substantial improvement in life expectancy, the current racial gap in life expectancy could be eliminated in about 40 years. CONCLUSIONS: The goal of eliminating the racial gap in life expectancy is a critical national priority. Differences in life expectancy are the result of multiple health and socioeconomic determinants, which will require multiple intervention strategies. The time it will take to reduce the overall gap will depend on the speed of reduction of the leading cause-specific mortality differences, which will require intensified efforts in both prevention and treatment.

Journal Article↗