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PubMed2002

The effect of losing the twin and losing the partner on mortality.

Several studies have explored the impact of marital bereavement on mortality, while increasing emphasis has recently been placed on genetic factors influencing longevity - in this paper, we study the impact of losing the spouse and losing the co-twin, for twins aged 50 to 70. We use data from the Danish Twin Registry and the Population Register of Denmark for the period 1968 through 1999. Firstly, we use survival analysis to study mortality after the death of the spouse or the co-twin. We find that the risk of dying is highest in the first year after the death of the spouse, as well as in the second year after the death of the co-twin. We then use event history analysis techniques to show that there is a strong impact of the event 'losing the co-twin' even after controlling for age, sex and zygosity and that this effect is significantly higher in the second year of bereavement. The effect is similar for men and women, and it is higher for monozygotic twins. The latter confirms the influence of genetic factors on survival, while the mortality trajectory with a peak in the second year after the death of the co-twin is consistent with the existence of a twin bereavement effect.

Aged↗
PubMed2001

Predictors of medical events and of their competitive interactions in the Cardiac Insufficiency Bisoprolol Study 2 (CIBIS-2).

AIMS: Predictive factors for medical events and interactions between events were not reported in the Cardiac Insufficiency Bisoprolol Study 2 (CIBIS-2). We examined the interactions among death, permanent treatment withdrawals, nonlethal cardiovascular hospitalizations and their own occurrence in a given patient, the treatment received, and baseline variables during CIBIS-2. METHODS AND RESULTS: A Cox model for censored data was used to analyze the relations among baseline variables, medical events, and their interactions with treatment. We used competitive risk analysis to examine the interactions between successive events in a given patient during follow-up. No baseline variable predicted the reduction of mortality with bisoprolol. Withdrawal from bisoprolol therapy was more frequent in patients whose baseline heart rate was in the lower tertile of the distribution (P =.0002) but otherwise was not different between patients randomized to bisoprolol and to placebo. Event history analysis revealed that bisoprolol reduced mortality (P =.0006) and hospitalizations for nonlethal cardiovascular events (P =.003) in patients in whom treatment was not permanently withdrawn. Analysis of survival curves in patients who permanently discontinued treatment showed that bisoprolol did not reduce mortality compared with placebo in this population (relative risk 1.03, 95% CI 0.67-1.59; P =.88). Recurrent nonlethal events were reduced by bisoprolol. CONCLUSION: In CIBIS-2, medical events were significantly influenced by treatment withdrawal. Patients who derive benefit from bisoprolol therapy are those in whom treatment is not permanently withdrawn.

Adrenergic beta-Antagonists↗
PubMed1986

Pathways to heroin abstinence: a longitudinal study of urban black youth.

Reported here is a study of the effectiveness of treatment in reducing the duration of heroin careers, with a special focus on gender differences. The longitudinal research is based on a community representative sample of urban black youth, ages 18-23, and utilizes a recently introduced statistical methodology, event-history analysis. Simple hazard probability analysis confirmed that males and females did not differ significantly in their cumulative probabilities of abstinence from heroin. The more elaborated event-history model demonstrated, however, that treatment played a significantly different role among young men and women in attaining abstinence. While a man's likelihood of abstinence was but marginally greater with treatment than without it, women's likelihood of abstinence was significantly increased by entering treatment.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1987

[Hazard function and life table: an introduction to the failure time analysis].

Failure time analysis has become popular in demographic studies. It can be viewed as a part of regression analysis with limited dependent variables as well as a special case of event history analysis and multistate demography. The idea of hazard function and failure time analysis, however, has not been properly introduced to nor commonly discussed by demographers in Japan. The concept of hazard function in comparison with life tables is briefly described, where the force of mortality is interchangeable with the hazard rate. The basic idea of failure time analysis is summarized for the cases of exponential distribution, normal distribution, and proportional hazard models. The multiple decrement life table is also introduced as an example of lifetime data analysis with cause-specific hazard rates.

Demography↗
PubMed1998

Predicting variation in the timing of language milestones in the second year: an events history approach.

In a longitudinal investigation of 40 child-mother dyads, we examined prediction from three indexes of children's own language: (1) vocal imitations, (2) first spontaneous words in production, and (3) receptive language starting at 0;9, and their mothers' verbal responsiveness at 0;9 and 1;1, to the developmental onset of three significant language milestones of the second year: (1) 50 words in productive language, (2) combinatorial speech, and (3) the use of language to express a memory. In these analyses, we utilized EVENTS HISTORY ANALYSIS, a statistical technique well suited to questions concerning when in development certain events begin and the extent to which predictors influence the timing of those events. The timing of children's first words in production, the timing of their achievement of 50 words in receptive language, and maternal responsiveness at 1;1 each contributed uniquely to variation in the timing of the three language milestones. When child and mother factors were considered together, the onset of the three language milestones differed by as much as 0;5 months for children in the lower and upper 10th percentiles of the predictor variables. The present findings contribute to generating and testing specific models about child and mother factors thought to explain variation in key aspects of children's second-year language development.

Adult↗
PubMed1996

Predicting the timing of first sexual intercourse for at-risk adolescent males.

Event history analysis was used to test a developmental model of the timing of first sexual intercourse in the Oregon Youth Study sample of adolescent males at risk for delinquency. The event history models spanned grades 7-12 with yearly multimethod, multiagent measures. A 3-step mediational model of predictors was tested, including contextual and process factors and boys' characteristics. Predictors included one-time measures of socioeconomic status, parental antisocial behavior, and time-varying measures of parental transitions, parental monitoring, deviant peer association, and the boys' antisocial/delinquent behavior, substance use, physical maturation, academic achievement, and anxiety. As predicted, antisocial/delinquent behavior and substance use along with early physical maturity and parental transitions predicted early onset of sexual intercourse. Anxiety was related to delay of first intercourse. Results and intervention implications are discussed in terms of the developmental findings.

Adolescent↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Maternal responsiveness and children's achievement of language milestones.

This prospective longitudinal study examined the contribution of dimensions of maternal responsiveness (descriptions, play, imitations) to the timing of five milestones in children's (N = 40) early expressive language: first imitations, first words, 50 words in expressive language, combinatorial speech, and the use of language to talk about the past. Events-History Analysis, a statistical technique that estimates the extent to which predictors influence the timing of events, was used. At 9 and 13 months, maternal responsiveness and children's activities (e.g., vocalizations, play) were coded from videotaped interactions of mother-child free play; information about children's language acquisition was obtained through biweekly interviews with mothers from 9 through 21 months. Maternal responsiveness at both ages predicted the timing of children's achieving language milestones over and above children's observed behaviors. Responsiveness at 13 months was a stronger predictor of the timing of language milestones than was responsiveness at 9 months, and certain dimensions of responsiveness were more predictive than others. The multidimensional nature of maternal responsiveness and specificity in mother-child language relations are discussed.

Achievement↗
PubMed1988

Family structure and dependency: early transitions to female household headship.

This article looks at the intergenerational effects of family structure on family formation and economic dependency. Three explanations are examined: the economic-deprivation, socialization, and family-stress hypotheses. Daughters living in single-parent families at some point during adolescence are more likely to become household heads and to go on welfare than offspring of two-parent families. Differences in the incomes of one- and two-parent families can account for up to 25 percent of the difference in offspring behaviors. None of the hypotheses, however, provides a complete explanation of family structure effects. The analysis is based on data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and uses event-history analysis to estimate transitions into female headship and economic dependence.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2003

Cumulative adversity and drug dependence in young adults: racial/ethnic contrasts.

AIMS: To study cumulative exposure to stressors as a risk factor for drug dependence, and evaluate whether group differences in exposure contribute to differences in prevalence. DESIGN: Cross-sectional community survey of life-time adverse experiences and substance and psychiatric disorders. SETTING: Data collected between 1997 and 2000 in Miami-Dade County, USA. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 1803 former Miami-Dade public school students, 93% between ages 19 and 21 years when interviewed. Males and females of Cuban origin, other Caribbean basin Hispanics, African-Americans and non-Hispanic whites are represented equally. MEASUREMENTS: Drug dependence disorder assessed by DSM-IV criteria using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview, and a 41-item checklist of life-time exposure to major and potentially traumatic experiences. Both measures include age at time of first occurrence. FINDINGS: Life-time rate of drug dependence disorder (total 14.3%) did not vary significantly (P > 0.05) by socio-economic group. Male rate (17.6%) was significantly greater than female rate (10.9%). The African-American rate (6.5%) was dramatically lower than non-Hispanic white (17.0%), Cuban (18.1%) and non-Cuban Hispanic (16.0%) rates despite their dramatically higher exposure to adversity. Twenty-eight of 33 individual adversities were associated with the subsequent onset of drug dependence (P < 0.05). Cumulative life-time exposure was greatest for males and for African-Americans, and was associated inversely with socio-economic level. Multivariate discrete-time event history analysis revealed significant independent effects of distal (>1 year earlier) and proximal (previous year) exposure to adverse events (P < 0.05), controlling for childhood conduct disorder, attention deficit hyperactive disorder and previous psychiatric disorder. CONCLUSIONS: Life-time cumulative exposure to distant as well as more recent adversity predicts risk of subsequent drug dependence, although it does not explain ethnic group differences in risk.

Adult↗
PubMed1993

Writing the names: marriage style, living arrangements, and first birth interval in a Nepali society.

Using data from a Nepali population, this analysis argues that marriage style and postmarital living arrangements affect coital frequency to produce variations in the timing of first birth after marriage. Event history analysis of the first birth interval for 149 women suggests that women's autonomy in marriage decisions and marriage to cross-cousins accelerate the pace of entry into first birth. Extended-household residence with reduced natal kin contact, on the other hand, significantly lengthens the first birth interval. These findings are consistent with previous arguments in the literature while offering new evidence for the impact of extended-family residence on fertility.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2004

The prediction of thoughts of death or self-harm in a population-based sample of female twins.

BACKGROUND: Although suicide is a leading cause of death, few studies have attempted to predict suicidal ideation prospectively using epidemiological samples or multivariate methods. METHOD: Discrete-time event history analysis was used to model the onset of thoughts of death or self-harm (TD/SH) in a population-based sample of female twins (N=2164) using variables from the demographic, psychopathological, childhood adversity, personality and life event domains. Univariate, multivariate-within domain and multivariate-across domain regression analyses were performed. RESULTS: Most variables predicted TD/SH in the univariate analyses. However, the only variables to predict TD/SH independently were obsessive symptoms, childhood sexual abuse, rural residence, unemployment, older age, lifetime history of cocaine misuse and low levels of education, personal religious devotion and altruism, as well as divorce/separation, loss of confidant, assault, job loss and financial problems in the previous month. This final model explained 16% of the variance in TD/SH. Lifetime histories of major depression, panic disorder and alcohol misuse had no significant independent effect. CONCLUSIONS: Many variables, from all five domains of risk factors, are associated with the risk of TD/SH, but many of these effects may be mediated by other risk factors. Proximal life events and psychopathology may have more independent effects than other domains. The overall ability of these risk factors to predict TD/SH is modest. We cannot rule out that differences between these analyses and previous reports were due to our use of TD/SH as the dependent variable instead of thoughts of committing suicide per se.

Adult↗
PubMed2003

Social capital and premarital sexual activity in Africa: the case of Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo.

Prior research has pointed to several factors that may affect sexual behavior in Africa, but much of the work has been atheoretical or descriptive, thus reducing the explanatory value of some findings. In this study, the influence of individual characteristics and family background were examined in a sample of 2,000 women aged 14-24 interviewed in Kinshasa in 1995. The analysis was guided by the social capital framework and the discussion focused on three theoretical perspectives: rational adaptation, social disorganization, and patrilineal bias. The results from the event history analysis showed that poverty, exposure to mass media, patrilinearity, and AIDS awareness greatly reduce the risk of premarital sexual activity. In contrast, social capital, as measured by the number of siblings, was positively associated with sexual permissiveness, suggesting a dilution of adults' attention to children in larger families.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
PubMed1989

The hazards of cognitive aging.

After a review of findings from the Seattle Longitudinal Study of adult cognitive development, this paper discusses the application of event history analysis, a technique pioneered by sociologists, to data involving changes of states in individual behavior related to human aging. The dependent variable of interest for psychologists and other developmentalists should be the age (calendar or functional) at which the event occurs rather than its index in historical time. Using occurrence of significant decline in cognitive abilities as an exemplar, hazard functions are presented that allow the assessment of risk for future decline, as well as the prediction of the calendar age when individuals can expect cognitive decline under alternative assumptions.

Aged↗
PubMed2002

[Active life expectancy in Germany and in the United States. A cohort analysis based on the "German Socio-Economic Panel" (GSOEP) and the "Panel Study of Income Dynamics" (PSID)].

Using the method of multistate life-tables, the article presents results on active life expectancy on the basis of the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) and the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). The transitions into and out of active life are based on event-history analysis and are calculated for different cohorts. Compared to cross-sectional analysis, the longitudinal analysis carried out here describes active life expectancy with reference to single birth cohorts. Results show that in Germany there has been substantial improvement in active life expectancy while in the USA there has been some deterioration.

Activities of Daily Living↗
PubMed2005

Until death do us part: an analysis of the economic well-being of widows in four countries.

OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to show how a woman's economic well-being changes in the United States, Germany, Great Britain, and Canada after her husband's death and the importance of public and private income sources in offsetting the economic consequences of that death. METHODS: With data from the Cross-National Equivalent File, we used event history analysis to track changes in the social security replacement rate and the more comprehensive total income replacement rate for women and to show how these changes vary across age and household income quintiles within and across countries. RESULTS: There were substantial differences across the countries in how income from specific sources changes, especially with respect to the mix of income from government and private sources, but the overall across-country pattern of total income replacement rates was remarkably similar both in size and in distribution across age and the woman's place in the income distribution prior to her husband's death. DISCUSSION: Studies that focus on a social security replacement rate will seriously understate the actual total income replacement rate of women following a husband's death. This will especially be the case in countries like the United States where private sources of income play a more important role in income replacement.

Adult↗
PubMed1997

Recommendations for research and public policy in gambling studies.

The purpose of this article is to respond to and expand on the ideas presented by Father McGowan in The Ethics of Gambling Research: An Agenda for Mature Analysis. We provide specific recommendations for future research and public policy in the field of gambling studies. We suggest that key conceptual definitions--such as, problem, compulsive, and pathological gambling--should be clarified, established, and distinguished from one another before gambling research is conducted. Proper methodological procedures are recommended, where power analyses, pilot studies, and representative samples are appropriately conducted and analyzed. Retrospective and Prospective studies are considered and differentiated while Discrete Time Event History Analysis--namely, Life Tables Analysis and Discrete Time Logistic Regression--are proposed.

Comment↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Kin influence on female reproductive behavior: the evidence from reconstitution of the Bejsce parish registers, 18th to 20th centuries, Poland.

The phenomenon of kin-oriented help, according to inclusive fitness theory, should be of crucial importance with respect to the process of reproduction. This is due to the fact that the devoted time and resources might indirectly contribute to the reproductive performance of a donor. This study aimed at analyzing the kin effects on fertility in order to check whether help received from kinsmen enhance a recipient's reproduction in terms of parity transition risk, completed fertility, and the number of survivors. The data came from reconstitution of church registers from Bejsce parish, Poland. To estimate the kin effect, regression models for count outcomes and techniques of multilevel event history analysis were applied. The analyses have shown that completed fertility and parity-specific transition risks are strongly influenced by various kin groups. Moreover, a multilevel hazard model revealed differences in the patterns of the kin influence among controlled fertility than among natural fertility birth cohorts. Female reproductive outcome is influenced mainly by the presence of siblings and postreproductive helpers (grandparents). However, there is a negative impact of so-called helpers-at-the-nest (older children in the household) on parity transition risks.

Cohort Studies↗
PubMed2001

A general family of distributions for longitudinal dependence with special reference to event histories.

Event histories play an increasingly important role in medical studies. Examples include times between recurrences of tumours, as with bladder cancer, and between repeated infections, as with chronic granulotomous disease. A general method for generating new distributions is proposed by introducing an intensity function into a density. This procedure yields, as special cases, several distributions already proposed in the literature. The families of distributions based on the Pareto distribution are of particular interest for event history analysis because of their relationship to the Laplace transform of a gamma distribution. They can yield multivariate distributions, with longitudinal (serial) dependence by a procedure similar to updating in the Kalman filter and with uniform dependence in a similar way to copulas. For longitudinal dependence, several such updating procedures are proposed.

Antineoplastic Agents, Alkylating↗