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PubMed2002

Genetic effective size of a wild primate population: influence of current and historical demography.

A comprehensive assessment of the determinants of effective population size (N(e)) requires estimates of variance in lifetime reproductive success and past changes in census numbers. For natural populations, such information can be best obtained by combining longitudinal data on individual life histories and genetic marker-based inferences of demographic history. Independent estimates of the variance effective size (N(ev), obtained from life-history data) and the inbreeding effective size (N((eI), obtained from genetic data) provide a means of disentangling the effects of current and historical demography. The purpose of this study was to assess the demographic determinants of N(e) in one of the most intensively studied natural populations of a vertebrate species: the population of savannah baboons (Papio cynocephalus) in the Amboseli Basin, southern Kenya. We tested the hypotheses that N(eV) < N < N(eI) (where N = population census number) due to a recent demographic bottleneck. N(eV) was estimated using a stochastic demographic model based on detailed life-history data spanning a 28-year period. Using empirical estimates of age-specific rates of survival and fertility for both sexes, individual-based simulations were used to estimate the variance in lifetime reproductive success. The resultant values translated into an N(eV)/N estimate of 0.329 (SD = 0.116, 95% CI = 0.172-0.537). Historical N(eI), was estimated from 14-locus microsatellite genotypes using a coalescent-based simulation model. Estimates of N(eI) were 2.2 to 7.2 times higher than the contemporary census number of the Amboseli baboon population. In addition to the effects of immigration, the disparity between historical N(eI) and contemporary N is likely attributable to the time lag between the recent drop in census numbers and the rate of increase in the average probability of allelic identity-by-descent. Thus, observed levels of genetic diversity may primarily reflect the population's prebottleneck history rather than its current demography.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

Demography and sex work characteristics of female sex workers in India.

BACKGROUND: The majority of sex work in India is clandestine due to unfavorable legal environment and discrimination against female sex workers (FSWs). We report data on who these women are and when they get involved with sex work that could assist in increasing the reach of HIV prevention activities for them. METHODS: Detailed documentation of demography and various aspects of sex work was done through confidential interviews of 6648 FSWs in 13 districts in the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh. The demography of FSWs was compared with that of women in the general population. RESULTS: A total of 5010 (75.4%), 1499 (22.5%), and 139 (2.1%) street-, home-, and brothel-based FSWs, respectively, participated. Comparison with women of Andhra Pradesh revealed that the proportion of those aged 20-34 years (75.6%), belonging to scheduled caste (35.3%) and scheduled tribe (10.5%), illiterate (74.7%), and of those separated/divorced (30.7%) was higher among FSWs (p < 0.001). The FSWs engaged in sex work for >5 years were more likely to be non-street-based FSWs, illiterate, living in small urban towns, and to have started sex work between 12-15 years of age. The mean age at starting sex work (21.7 years) and gap between the first vaginal intercourse and the first sexual intercourse in exchange for money (6.6 years) was lower for FSWs in the rural areas as compared with those in large urban areas (23.9 years and 8.8 years, respectively). CONCLUSION: These data highlight that women struggling with illiteracy, lower social status, and less economic opportunities are especially vulnerable to being infected by HIV, as sex work may be one of the few options available to them to earn money. Recommendations for actions are made for long-term impact on reducing the numbers of women being infected by HIV in addition to the current HIV prevention efforts in India.

Journal Article↗
PubMed2003

Headache associated with sexual activity: demography, clinical features, and comorbidity.

OBJECTIVE: S: To provide data on the demography, clinical features, and comorbidity of headache associated with sexual activity (HSA). METHODS: Between 1996 and 2001, 51 patients with the diagnosis of HSA were questioned using a structured interview. RESULTS: The mean age at onset was 39.2 (+/-11.1) years. There was a clear male preponderance (2.9:1). The age at onset had two peaks, with a first peak between the 20th and 24th (n = 13) years of life and a second peak between the 35th and 44th (n = 20) years of life. Eleven patients had HSA type 1 (dull subtype), which gradually increased with increasing sexual excitement. The remaining (n = 40) had HSA type 2 (explosive subtype). The pain was predominantly bilateral (67%), and diffuse or occipital (76%). The quality was nearly equally distributed among dull, throbbing, and stabbing. HSA was not dependent on specific sexual habits and most often occurred during sexual activity with the usual partner (94%) and during masturbation (35%). There was a high comorbidity with migraine (25%), benign exertional headache (29%), and tension-type headache (45%). HSA types 1 and 2 did not significantly differ in demography, clinical features, or comorbidity, except for a higher probability of stopping the attack by breaking off sexual activity in HSA type 1. There were no cases with HSA type 3 (postural subtype). CONCLUSION: Mean age at onset, a male preponderance, a predominantly bilateral and occipital pain, and a high comorbidity with other primary headaches are in concordance with case reports in the literature. The authors found two peaks for the age at onset, however. There was no clinical evidence proving subtypes 1 and 2 to be distinct disorders. HSA types 1 and 2 may be different manifestations of the same disease rather than distinct entities.

Adult↗
PubMed2002

Demography of pediatric primary care in Europe: delivery of care and training.

OBJECTIVE: The Union of National European Pediatric Societies and Associations recognized the lack of information regarding demography of delivery of care and training for the doctors who care for children in Europe. Therefore, the Union of National European Pediatric Societies and Associations studied factors and explanations for the variation between countries regarding pediatric primary care (PPC) and community pediatrics (CP) as well as the extent of formal training provided for those who take care of children at the community level. METHODS: An explanatory letter and a questionnaire with 12 questions regarding delivery of PPC and CP and training was mailed to the president of each of 41 national pediatric societies in Europe. Statistical data about population, country's income, and infant mortality rate (IMR) were also obtained from World Health Organization data. Statistical analysis using multivariate and linear regression was conducted to ascertain which variables were associated with IMR. Descriptive statistics regarding demography and training are also reported. RESULTS: In 1999, a total of 167 444 pediatricians served a population of 158 million children who were younger than 15 years and living in the 34 reporting European countries. The median number of children per pediatrician was 2094; this varied from 401 to 15 150. A pediatric system for PPC existed in 12 countries; 6 countries had a general practitioner system, and a combined system was reported from 16 countries. Pediatricians did not work at the primary care level at all in 3 countries. In 14 of 34 countries, pediatricians worked in various aspects of community medicine, such as developmental pediatrics, well-infant care, school physicians, and so forth. IMR was lower in countries with a higher income per capita. In addition, a pediatric system of primary care had a protective effect when looking at IMR as the outcome. In 75% of the countries, some form of training in pediatric care for pediatricians was reported; the corresponding data for general practitioners was 60%. Community-based teaching programs were offered to pediatricians and general practitioners in a minority of countries only. CONCLUSIONS: At the end of the century, Europe showed a considerable variation in both delivery of PPC and training for doctors who care for children. This study identified 3 different health care delivery systems for PPC, as well as 2 types of pediatricians who work in community-based settings. Formal training in PPC or CP for both pediatricians and general practitioners varied from established curricula to no teaching at all. Economic and sociopolitical issues, professional power, and geographical and historical factors may explain the differences in pediatric care among European countries.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2006

Demography of northern flying squirrels informs ecosystem management of western interior forests.

We studied northern flying squirrel (Glaucomys sabrinus) demography in the eastern Washington Cascade Range to test hypotheses about regional and local abundance patterns and to inform managers of the possible effects of fire and fuels management on flying squirrels. We quantified habitat characteristics and squirrel density, population trends, and demography in three typical forest cover types over a four-year period. We had 2034 captures of flying squirrels over 41 000 trap nights from 1997 through 2000 and marked 879 squirrels for mark-recapture population analysis. Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forest appeared to be poorer habitat for flying squirrels than young or mature mixed-conifer forest. About 35% fewer individuals were captured in open pine forest than in dry mixed-conifer Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) and grand fir (Abies grandis) forests. Home ranges were 85% larger in pine forest (4.6 ha) than in mixed-conifer forests (2.5 ha). Similarly, population density (Huggins estimator) in ponderosa pine forest was half (1.1 squirrels/ha) that of mixed-conifer forest (2.2 squirrels/ha). Tree canopy cover was the single best correlate of squirrel density (r = 0.77), with an apparent threshold of 55% canopy cover separating stands with low- from high-density populations. Pradel estimates of annual recruitment were lower in open pine (0.28) than in young (0.35) and mature (0.37) forest. High recruitment was most strongly associated with high understory plant species richness and truffle biomass. Annual survival rates ranged from 45% to 59% and did not vary among cover types. Survival was most strongly associated with understory species richness and forage lichen biomass. Maximum snow depth had a strong negative effect on survival. Rate of per capita increase showed a density-dependent response. Thinning and prescribed burning in ponderosa pine and dry mixed conifer forests to restore stable fire regimes and forest structure might reduce flying squirrel densities at stand levels by reducing forest canopy, woody debris, and the diversity or biomass of understory plants, truffles, and lichens. Those impacts might be ameliorated by patchy harvesting and the retention of large trees, woody debris, and mistletoe brooms. Negative stand-level impacts would be traded for increased resistance and resilience of dry-forest landscapes to now-common, large-scale stand replacement fires.

Animals↗
PubMed1990

The politics of Alzheimer's disease: a case study in apocalyptic demography.

Catastrophic projections of the burden to society of an increasing aging population abound. The prevailing belief is that an increasing dependent aging population means increasing demands on the resources of society, including health care resources, in the face of competing interests and diminishing, or at best finite, resources. But how justified is this "apocalyptic demography"? This article presents one challenge to the apocalyptic scenario by considering the politics surrounding the most publicized, although not the most prevalent, disease of elders: Alzheimer's disease. The recent emergence of Alzheimer's disease as the "fourth or fifth leading cause of adult deaths" is critically examined, and the evidence for the social construction of Alzheimer's disease in terms of the "biomedicalization of aging" discussed. The author considers that it is, in part, the response of the health care system (as it is currently constituted) to changes in demography and disease distribution--and not, as is commonly asserted, the numbers of elders or their increasing "morbidity"--that drives up health care costs.

Aged↗
PubMed2000

Anthropological cybernetic model of demography of the island of Hvar.

Intentions of the present investigation were to apply a cybernetic model in description of demography on the island of Hvar for a time period from year 1800 till now. The basic idea of the model applied in this anthropological study (LOPI) is that the rate of reproduction is given by the non-linear controller: Y2/Te(1-(Y3/G)). Constant G represents an environmental carrying capacity of a community with respect to the cohort of older people (no longer a part of the pool of reproductive inhabitants; Y3) sharing limited survival resources. The proportional constant 1/Te connected with the pool of reproductive inhabitants (Y2) correspond to the reproduction maximum. The consistency of the model is evaluated through comparison between model data and census. The LOPI model describes incredibly well the demography of the island of Hvar from the year 1800 till 1940. After year 1950 there were more inhabitants on the island then the model would predict. This fact is connected with changes in the migration or also in the increased carrying capacity (G). On the basis LOPI model, population dynamic oscillates in its development. The example of the island of Hvar has proved that population reaches a maximal number of inhabitants every 200 years. The oscillation of population dynamics is influenced by the migration processes. The mere fact that oscillating population size is connected to population genetics and probably also to sociocultural factors suggests that a cybernetics demographic model can be a guide in the holistic anthropological approach.

Adult↗
PubMed2003

Pathological demography of native patients in a nephrology center in China.

OBJECTIVE: To analysis the pathological demography in Chinese patients undergoing renal biopsy from our nephrology center. METHODS: Between January 1979 and October 2000 in Jinling Hospital, Nanjing, China, 10,002 attempts of percutaneous renal were performed in patients with renal disease from 33 provinces of China. The pathological classifications were made according to the WHO criteria of 1982 for renal pathology or the modified WHO criteria of 1995 by a panel of pathologists and nephrologists during routine clinical-pathological rounds. The pathological demography between those specimens collected from 1979 - 1989 and those from 1990 - 1999 was compared. RESULTS: The mean age of the 10,002 subjects undergoing renal biopsy was 31.4 +/- 13.0 years (ranging from 1 to 78 years), with a male to female ratio of 1.3:1; for the 592 renal transplant recipients, the mean age was 37.5 +/- 9.1 years (ranging from 16 to 66 years), with a male to female ratio of 2.36:1. Primary glomerular diseases (PGD) accounted for 71% of the total patients undergoing renal biopsies, secondary glomerular nephritis (SGN) 23%, tubular-interstitial diseases 3.2%, unclassified renal diseases 1.3%, hereditary and congenital renal diseases 1.0%, end stage renal diseases 0.96%, and recently realized or rare renal diseases 0.15%. IgA nephropathy (IgAN) was the most frequent pathological pattern (40%) of PGD, followed by mesangial proliferative lesion (MsPL) (30%), membranous nephropathy (MN) (10%), and focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS) (6%). Lupus nephritis (LN) was the most pathology common seen (74%) in SGN. During the 22 years of the study period, there was a steady increase in patients with SGN discovered during pathological evaluation of renal disorders. A rise in prevalence was found in IgA nephropathy, MN (both P < 0.001), crescentic glomerulonephritis (P < 0.0001), anti-GBM disease, and hemolytic-uremic syndrome/thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura related renal damages (both P < 0.001). There was a decrease in endocapillary proliferative glomerulonephritis (P < 0.001) and IgM nephropathy (IgMN) (P < 0.01) from 1990 - 1999 as compared to 1979 - 1989. Infrequent renal pathological entities were also diagnosed in this group, including Niemann Pick disease, Fabry's disease, POEMS syndrome, and lipoprotein glomerulonephropathy. CONCLUSIONS: This is the largest series of renal biopsy data in China, and therefore may reflect the demographic picture of renal diseases in this country. Changes in prevalence of renal pathological entities were reflected in this group of patients over the last 22 years. In primary glomerular diseases, IgA nephropathy is still the most frequently observed pathological pattern. In SGN, LN appeared the most often. Increased prevalence was found in anti-GBM nephritis and HUS/TTP.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1989

[Dynamic demography from 1900 to 1985 in Aldeavieja (Avila)].

The dynamic demography of the village of Aldeavieja (Avila) from 1900 to 1985 was evaluated with several indicators. A reduction in mortality rate was found, stabilizing around 10% since 1950, with a greater reduction in mortality rates in children. From 1900 to 1985 the Swarop index rose from 34.55% to 92.86%, and life expectancy from 30.13 to 77.5 years. The most common causes of death were infectious diseases during the first decades of the period, being now replaced by tumors and chronic diseases. There was a great demographic loss and the population became older (17.59% are now older than 65 years). It was concluded that a knowledge of dynamic demography is needed for a rational planning and an adequate resource allocation based on needs.

Humans↗
PubMed2005

Demography in an increasingly variable world.

Recent advances in stochastic demography provide unique insights into the probable effects of increasing environmental variability on population dynamics, and these insights can be substantially different compared with those from deterministic models. Stochastic variation in structured population models influences estimates of population growth rate, persistence and resilience, which ultimately can alter community composition, species interactions, distributions and harvesting. Here, we discuss how understanding these demographic consequences of environmental variation will have applications for anticipating changes in populations resulting from anthropogenic activities that affect the variance in vital rates. We also highlight new tools for anticipating the consequences of the magnitude and temporal patterning of environmental variability.

Animals↗
PubMed1981

Demography and computer simulation in historic village population reconstruction.

"Demographic anthropology has given rise to methodological advances in the analysis of single community populations. However, the obstacles of small data bases and incomplete vital-event registration remain. This paper details one approach to these problems; the principles of community demography are incorporated with computer simulation methodology, with the goals of validating the internal consistency of and determining demographic secular trends from data commonly utilized in anthropological investigations." The approach is tested on data for the 250 inhabitants of Old Crow Village, Yukon Territory, Canada, in 1978.

Americas↗
PubMed1991

The event history approach in demography.

"In the present paper, we shall examine...changes in the field of demography, by following the progression from period analysis to cohort analysis. We shall discuss the hypotheses underlying each of these approaches and show how their distance from actual human behaviour could lead to mistaken or incomplete conclusions. We shall then show how event history analysis can solve these problems and we shall define the hypotheses implied by this new approach. Finally, we shall come back to the complimentarity of the different social sciences."

Behavior↗
PubMedDate not supplied

The formal demography of families and households: an overview.

"The objective of the present paper is to give a brief overview of the subject matter of the formal demography of the family. Selected references are included, but no attempt is made to be exhaustive. No discussion of socio-economic determinants or consequences is included, because this overview is limited to the formal aspects of the field. "The...paper is divided into five parts. The first deals with the descriptive analysis of family and household size and composition, from both a cross-sectional and a longitudinal perspective. The next two sections discuss, in order, demographic determinants and consequences. This is followed by a brief section on projection methods and the conclusion."

Demography↗
PubMed2003

Demography, female life history, and reproductive profiles among the chimpanzees of Mahale.

Demography provides critical data to increase our understanding of the evolution, ecology, and conservation of primate populations. The chimpanzees of the Mahale Mountains National Park, Tanzania, have been studied for more than 34 yr on the basis of individual identification and standardized attendance records. From this long-term study, we derived the following demographic data: The major cause of death was disease (48%), followed by senescence (24%) and within-species aggression (16%). Fifty percent of Mahale chimpanzees died before weaning. The median ages of female life history variables were: first maximal swelling, 10.0 yr (n = 5); emigration, 11.0 yr (n = 11); and first birth, 13.1 yr (n = 5). The median period of adolescent infertility was 2.8 yr (n = 4) when calculated from the age at immigration to that at first birth. Female fecundity was highest between 20 and 35 yr of age, with an annual birth rate of 0.2. Twenty-six females that were observed from a young age (10-13 yr) to death at various ages (15-40 yr) gave birth to an average of 3.9 and weaned an average of 1.4 offspring. Twenty-five females that were observed from middle age (18-33 yr) to death in older age (31-48) gave birth to an average of 2.7 and weaned an average of 2.0 offspring. The post-reproductive lifespan for female chimpanzees was defined as the number of years that passed from the year when the last offspring was born to the year when the female died, minus 5. Twenty-five percent of old females had a post-reproductive lifespan. The interbirth interval after the birth of a son (x = 72 mo) tended to be longer than that after the birth of a daughter (x = 66 mo). The extent of female transfer, which is a rule in chimpanzees, is influenced by the size and composition of the unit group and size of the overall local community.

Age Factors↗
PubMed1992

Estimation of age structure in anthropological demography.

The past decade has produced considerable debate over the feasibility of paleodemographic research, with much attention focusing on the question of reliability of age estimates. We show here that in cases where age is estimated rather than known, the traditional method of assigning individuals to age classes will produce biased estimates of age structure. We demonstrate the effect of this bias both mathematically and by computer simulation, and show how a more appropriate method from the fisheries literature (the "iterated age length key") can be used to estimate age structure. Because it is often the case that ages are also estimated for extant groups, we suggest that our results are relevant to the general field of anthropological demography, and that it is time for us to improve the statistical basis for age structure estimation. We further suggest that the oft noted paucity of older individuals in skeletal collections is a simple result of the use of inappropriate methods of age estimation, and that this problem can be rectified in the future by using maximum likelihood estimates of life table or hazard functions incorporating the uncertainty of age estimates.

Age Factors↗
PubMed1993

Ecological demography: a synthetic focus in evolutionary anthropology.

"Ecological demography arises from two facts: that the reproductive behavior of humans, like that of other species, is influenced by natural selection and that current fitness is the product of both genotype and environment. Here I review classic atheoretical and recent theoretical studies that contribute to this emerging field, exploring the extent to which human reproductive responses to ecological conditions, considered in their broadest context, follow the same selective rules as other species."

Anthropology↗
PubMed2006

An objective assessment of demography of gallbladder cancer.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Gallbladder cancer (GBC) is a lethal disease with a wide geographical, ethnic, and cultural variation suggesting major environmental influences such as diet and life style factors in the development of disease. An objective assessment of demographic profile and full implication of these features to recognize the population at risk is needed. This study was therefore undertaken to study the demography of GBC in Varanasi. METHODS: A retrospective study as a case-control model comprised 328 cases of GBC and 328 controls with gallstone disease (GSD). The relevant demographic data were collected and analyzed for identification of independent significant features and for the risk of GBC based on these features by calculating odds ratio. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: GBC predominantly a disease of females belonged to fourth and fifth decade of life. Among 328 cases of GBC only 75 were male and 253 female (M:F = 1:3.37). Majority of GBC patients were above 40 years and multiparous females. Family history of GBC was higher in GBC patients. Majority of GBC patients were of low socioeconomic status and hailed from rural background. This group tends to consume open mustard oil and water from hand pump. This study emphasizes the usefulness of demographic evaluation in diagnosis of GBC and a systematic approach to assessment of demographic features of GBC is recommended.

Adult↗
PubMed1996

The dynamic household as a logical concept and its use in demography.

"The difficulties of applying conventional transition-based models to household change are discussed. More generally, what constitutes ¿time' and ¿change' is also considered. It is argued that many changes occurring within households such as leaving home are better-considered as ¿fuzzy' than crisp phenomena. An alternative perspective based on household change considered as an evolving network is proposed. The implications for sample designs which are designed to track explicit household dynamics (such as the Panel Study on Income Dynamics) are discussed. The ways in which particular forms of analysis come to dominate the scientific literature, including those for analysing household change are discussed in relation to non-linear dynamic models. Finally, it is argued that there would be considerable benefits if insights available from the physical, mathematical and biological sciences were to be more widely incorporated within technical demography." (SUMMARY IN FRE)

Demography↗