Letter to the editor: the 1970 U.S. census. Reply from the Census Bureau.
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"The results and experiences of the 1990 [U.S.] census demonstrate that the American population has grown too diverse and dynamic to be accurately counted solely by the traditional 'headcount' approach, and that fundamental changes must be implemented for a successful census in 2000. In the past, each census was more accurate than the preceding one, in part because of increased spending. However, the accuracy of the 1990 census fell below that of the 1980 census, as census costs escalated significantly. The $2.6 billion the nation spent on the 1990 census represented a 65 percent increase in constant dollars over the cost of the 1980 census. Additional cost escalation with the 2000 census is probable unless needed reforms are implemented. Although it is too early to identify the precise design needed for a more cost-effective census in 2000, the General Accounting Office believes that a number of opportunities for reform are worthy of aggressive attention."
OBJECTIVE: This study investigates the possible causes of high levels of residential fire deaths to children younger than 15 years of age in Philadelphia from 1989 to 2000. METHODS: The authors analyzed 246 deaths from 146 residential fires by census tract in Philadelphia using both individual level data and aggregate level data drawn from the records of the Fire Marshall's Office. Death rates by age and sex were calculated using the 1990 Census. Data on fires from official records were combined with aggregate level data by census tract from the 1990 Census and analyzed using logistic regression. Newspaper articles on the fires analyzed were used to identify residences with possible fire code violations. The authors used data from the Philadelphia Bureau of Licenses and Inspections to provide evidence of code violations. RESULTS: The statistically significant variables that resulted from the logistic regression were census tracts in the highest quartile for low income households, census tracts in the highest quartile for single-parent households with children younger than age 18, census tracts in the highest quartile for houses built before 1939, and the number of children younger than 15 years of age in a census tract. CONCLUSION: Population characteristics by census tract are useful in identifying risk factors for residential fire deaths of children. Census tracts identified as at highest risk can provide fire prevention units with opportunities to take preventative measures such as the distribution of smoke detectors, and the education of residents about the dangers of careless smoking and planning for the rescue of children in the event of a fire.
The United States Constitution requires that an enumeration (or census) of the population be conducted every 10 years to apportion seats in the House of Representatives. Census information is also used to allocate funds and to plan and manage programs. Census 2000 occurs on April 1, 2000, when one-sixth of all American households will be mailed the "long form," containing disability, demographic, economic, and housing questions. Although no short set of commonly accepted questions on disability existed, one was developed for Census 2000 by a collaborative, federal interagency work group on disability, convened by the Office of Management and Budget. The work group consisted of staff from the Social Security Administration (SSA), the Department of Health and Human Services, the U.S. Census Bureau, and other agencies. They reviewed questions initially proposed by the Census Bureau, developed an alternative proposal, tested both versions in the Census Bureau's cognitive questionnaire lab, and on the basis of testing, derived a consensus version for Census 2000. In many ways, the six questions now contained on Census 2000 are an improvement over previous efforts. Disability is ascertained for children as well as for adults, and information will be collected separately for several domains of disability (for example, sensory, mental, physical). The need for a brief set of disability measures goes beyond Census 2000. If such data were collected regularly on national surveys, critical policy and program concerns across agencies could be addressed because better information could be gathered on changes in disability prevalence and on the characteristics of persons with disabilities. Other similar efforts include the former Disability Evaluation Study, now known as the National Study of Health and Activity--a national sample survey on working-age disability to be conducted by SSA--and the President's Task Force on the Employment of Adults with Disabilities (Executive Order 13078).
As part of the 2001 Census, the One Number Census project estimated and adjusted the Census database for underenumeration. As a result of the highly innovative One Number Census and the Quality Assurance process it encompassed, it was also ensured that robust results could be obtained for each local authority area. This article examines some of the issues and analyses that were undertaken as part of that assessment of the 2001 Census population counts for England and Wales. The article firstly highlights the key issues surrounding the implementation of the 2001 Census fieldwork. The article then explores the 2001 Census results through a series of demographic analyses to illustrate the sorts of issues investigated during the One Number Census Quality Assurance process itself. These analyses look at the patterns contained within the results, and comparisons with key alternative sources of population counts. Overall, these in-depth analyses and investigations provide further credence to the plausibility of the One Number Census results.
"This paper discusses in respect of Lesotho the existing cartographic base for census mapping; census organization; methodology of census taking in Lesotho; geographical planning and specific strategies evolved in census mapping for the recent 1986 population census; some of the basic problems encountered in enumeration area mapping during the 1986 census; and also the use of census enumeration areas as a frame for national household survey capability programme and post-census cartographic activities."
The success of a census rests not only on how well the Bureau of the Census collects data, but also on how well the Census Bureau links those data to geographic areas. Problems with the geographic materials produced for the 1980 census caused confusion on the part of the Census Bureau's field staff, the staff processing the collected data, and the users of the resulting information. To avoid similar problems in 1990, the Geography Division of the Census Bureau is developing an automated geographic system that will support numerous Census Bureau operations beginning with the 1990 Decennial Census. A major component of this automated system is the computer-readable map data being developed in cooperation with the US Geological Survey using their 1:100-000-scale map series as the source.
This paper presents, tests, applies, and compares methods that utilize age data collected at consecutive censuses to examine and adjust for age and coverage errors. The Demeny-Shorter method, for example, was devised for this purpose, and its flexibility in regard to census coverage errors is examined. The Demeny-Shorter method is found difficult to apply directly, so a method based on the same idea as the Demeny-Shorter method but utilizing age data from three, instead of two, successive censuses is presented and discussed as a possible alternative. This three-census method is applied to data from Turkey's censuses and, in some cases, found to be better than the Demeny-Shorter method, because the former allows for and estimates the likely changes in census coverage and different patterns of age errors in successive censuses. Unfortunately, the three-census method cannot be applied to data from most developing countries on account of a lack of the requisite series of censuses.
"Recent developments in the data-dissemination system for census of population statistics are reviewed, with particular reference to Great Britain. Key issues discussed include: the expansion of census output and the need for summaries of census results; the significance of consultation with census users; the development and functions of guides for census users; the emergence of data-dissemination centres and archives offering new services; the functions of area typologies as a new type of census by-product; the demand for Public Use Samples and the problem of confidentiality; and the emergence of large-scale surveys as alternatives to the census."
"As a result of lessons learnt from the 1991 [U.K.] census, a research programme was set up to seek improvements in census methodology. Underenumeration has been placed top of the agenda in this programme, and every effort is being made to achieve as high a coverage as possible in the 2001 census. In recognition, however, that 100% coverage will never be achieved, the one-number census (ONC) project was established to measure the degree of underenumeration in the 2001 census and, if possible, to adjust fully the outputs from the census for that undercount. A key component of this adjustment process is a census coverage survey (CCS). This paper presents an overview of the ONC project, focusing on the design and analysis methodology for the CCS. It also presents results that allow the reader to evaluate the robustness of this methodology."
This Decree provides that the Tenth General Census of Brazil, to be undertaken in 1990 by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, is to include a) a demographic census (of population and domicile); b) a census of farming and cattle raising; c) an industrial census; d) a commercial census; and e) a census of services. Further provisions of the Decree set forth the powers of the Institute, the dates of the various censuses, and the duty of other government organizations to give assistance to the Institute.
This Decree provides that during the years 1987-1992 there is to be a general census of population and habitat in Madagascar. The duties to be undertaken are the preparation and execution of the census and the analysis and publication of the results according to a set calendar. To this end, the Decree establishes a National Commission for the Census of Population and Habitat to furnish orientation and coordination, a Technical Subcommission for the Census of Population and Habitat to establish the methodology of the census, and a Directorate for the Census of Population and Habitat to execute the census.
A nationwide census, only the 3rd in the history of the People's Republic of China, will be taken in July 1982, announced Vice-Premier Chen Muhua at a meeting of the census office under the State Council which opened here today. The 1st census was conducted in 1953, and the 2nd in 1964. Chen, who is in charge of the census, told officials, population specialists and statisticians from across China it was unprecedented in both Chinese history and the history of the world to attempt to count a population that has been long estimated at 1 billion. The census has been proposed in order to ascertain a range of 20 demographic factors necessary for the effective administration of the current economic readjustment and China's modernization drive, the vice-premier said. It will assist family planning and population control, facilitate food and clothing supplies, and make possible assessment of construction needs--housing, hospitals, schools, and other public services, she continued. A great deal of trouble in planning and administration has been caused by the inadequacy of available figures, Chen said. The results will be calculated in 2 stages. Figures such as the number of households and people will be announced first, while other more precise breakdowns such as sex, age, nationality, education, marital status, and occupation will be available later. 2 experimental censuses were carried out in July, 1980. The 950,000 residents in both Wuxi City and Wuxi County in east China's Jiangsu Province, were surveyed. The conference, acting on reports and recommendations from these, will establish further experimental counts in the coming months, while preparatory procedures, organizational work, and regulations are to be discussed and consolidated. The 1982 nationwide census has the support of the UN's fund for population activities.
BACKGROUND: Modern epidemiology increasingly uses data on families. The authors constructed an extended fertility database for women born in Denmark from 1930 onwards by supplementing the existing Fertility Database with household data from the 1970 census. METHODS: A fertility history was constructed for all women participating in the 1970 census, but aiming for complete data only for women aged 20-39. The fertility history of these women prior to the 1970 census was constructed from the census data including 1,648,813 persons coded as children. An algorithm was used transforming household information into fertility history data by matching women and children according to family position. Children for whom the algorithm gave no match were searched for in the Fertility Database; children not found in the Fertility Database either were searched for manually. The fertility history after the 1970 census was retrieved from the Fertility Database. RESULTS: Using data from the census 1970, 98.5% of the children were linked to a mother, and 99.6% of these links were estimated to be correct, corresponding to 98.1% of the children being linked correctly. In total, 964,720 children of women aged 20-39 in 1970 were identified, which was equivalent to 96.6% of the expected live-born children, and to 99.1% of the expected surviving children. CONCLUSION: Census household data proved to be an excellent data source for construction of fertility histories.
PURPOSE: The main goal of this study was to determine how well the disability questions of both the 1990 and 2000 Census correlated with a standard measure of disability. If the census questions were to correlate moderately well with a standard measure of disability, then Area Agencies on Aging (AAA) and other organizations would be able to use census information in estimating service needs for their catchment (service) area. DESIGN AND METHODS: Questionnaires containing both the census disability questions and a standard measure of disability were mailed to 4,508 older adults; 1,514 completed surveys were returned. In order to assess reliability, 472 of the respondents who completed the mail survey were reinterviewed by phone. All three disability measures were collapsed into the following three categories: no needs, instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) needs only, and activities of daily living (ADL) needs. RESULTS: All three disability measures exhibited moderate to good test-retest reliability. Using a standard measure of disability as the criterion, validity for the 1990 Census measure was quite low (Kappas of approximately 0.35). Validity for the 2000 Census measure was moderate to good (Kappas of approximately 0.60). IMPLICATIONS: These results suggest that the 2000 Census disability questions may be sufficiently valid for planning purposes. However, additional research with more representative samples of older adults is needed.