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PubMedDate not supplied

Secular trend in the development of fatness during childhood and adolescence.

This study examined the development of fatness, as indexed by skinfold thickness, in healthy Caucasian children and adolescents residing in the same location in Canada in the 1960s and the 1990s. The data comes from two longitudinal studies, conducted approximately 30 years apart, of children aged 8-16 years. The first study (1964-1973) annually measured 207 males and 140 females. The second investigation (1991-1997) repeatedly measured 113 males and 115 females. Identical measurement tools and protocols were used for height, body mass, and skinfolds. Maturational age was estimated as a measure in years from age of peak height velocity. Males from the second investigation matured significantly (P < 0.05) earlier. Multilevel regression modeling was utilized to determine developmental curves for the individuals within the two populations. When differences in height, body mass, and maturity were controlled, skinfold thicknesses of the males and females in the second study were significantly greater (P < 0.05) than age- and sex-matched peers in the first study. This was not seen in models of the BMI. The results suggest that when maturity and size were controlled, the fatness of children and adolescents increased over 30 years.

Adipose Tissue↗
PubMed2006

Secular trends in age at menarche among Caboclo populations from Pará, Amazonia, Brazil: 1930-1980.

The present study is part of a large research project on growth, development, nutrition, and health of Caboclo populations from the Brazilian Amazon. The aim of this paper is to analyze the age of menarche in adolescents (N=164) and adult women (219) in the studied populations. Caboclo are admixed rural, peasant groups that live along the Amazon river and its tributaries, and there are few previous studies about them. Probit analysis of the status quo data yielded a median age at menarche of 12.29+/-1.76 years. The retrospective method was applied to recall data of the 77 post-menarcheal adolescents, yielding an average of 13.06+/-1.27 years. Number of children in the family did not show any statistical influence on age at menarche in any age group. In adult women, age at menarche decreased from 14.50 in those born in 1930 to 12.88 for those born in 1980 (F=4.371, P=0.001). The downward trend found was, on average, 0.237 year per decade in the study period. The median age at menarche in the adolescents (12.29 years) is one of the lowest values found for Central and South American populations. In the ecological context, a low age at menarche could be an adaptive advantage because it provides a greater chance for reproduction at a young age in an environment where, until recently, life expectancy was low. As has been reported for other developing countries, the change found in age at menarche in the women born from the 1930s to the 1980s is likely to be related to changes in health and nutritional factors that occurred in Brazil because this country experienced significant improvement in living standards related to education, vaccination, and health conditions, which, although not equally, reached all regions after the 1960s.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1983

Consanguinity studies in Wisconsin I: secular trends in consanguineous marriage, 1843-1981.

Over 920,000 Roman Catholic marriages have taken place since the Archdiocese of Milwaukee was established in 1843. Most of these records are extant, and all have been examined to ascertain consanguineous marriages. The changing average population coefficient of consanguinity has been calculated, by year and by decade, showing a clear downward trend since the turn of the century. The data are compared with reports of consanguineous marriage incidence from around the world, and in particular with all available previous reports from the United States.

Catholicism↗
PubMed1989

Mortality rate of amyloidosis in Japan: secular trends and geographical variations.

The death rate in Japan from amyloidosis was analyzed using Japanese Vital Statistics for 1969-1985. The amyloidosis death rate has increased gradually year by year for both sexes. The changing patterns in mortality might be explained by a constantly improving ascertainment of amyloidosis. The overall amyloidosis death rate per 100,000 of the population was 0.06 during the period from 1969 to 1978. The geographical variations in the amyloidosis death rate were observed with the highest death rate in Kumamoto and Nagano prefectures (0.29 per 100,000 population) for both sexes during the period from 1979 to 1985. The amyloidosis death rates (per 100,000 population) in 2 large foci of familial amyloidosis polyneuropathy were 9.4 in Ogawa Village, Nagano Prefecture and 3.5 in Arao City, Kumamoto Prefecture during the period from 1979 to 1985. The mean age at death from amyloidosis gradually increased year by year for both sexes, although the age was 11-23 years shorter for males and 20-25 years shorter for females than that of the general population.

Age Factors↗
PubMed2004

Secular change in body height and cephalic index of Croatian medical students (University of Rijeka).

An investigation of body height and cephalic measurements was performed among five groups of first-year medical students of the University of Rijeka School of Medicine (Rijeka, Croatia). Body height and different cephalic measurements showed normal distribution, both in male and female students. Differences between measured variables were statistically analyzed by ANOVA. No significant difference with regard to year of birth was found in either males or females. The cephalic index showed no statistically significant difference between sexes or with regard to body height, while head breadth and length correlated significantly with birth year and body height, both in males and females. Head breadth decreased within the study period, while head length increased. Results were compared with those of similar studies from the mid-20th century. Student's t-test showed a significant change of cephalic indices and other head measurements, but not of body height, in males. The frequency difference between various head shapes was tested using the chi-square test. A significant increase of dolichocephalic and mesocephalic and a significant decrease of brachycephalic head shape were found in both sexes. These results suggest a continuity of the debrachycephalization process observed in our population at the past midcentury.

Adult↗
PubMed1976

Some secular changes in the growth of American-born and native Japanese children.

Three hundred and sixteen (35%) of the American-born Japanese children whose height, weight, and skeletal age were recorded in 1956-57 were reexamined as young adults between 1968 and 1974, when they were found to be taller, heavier and shorter legged than men and women in Japan who were born in the same years as they. These differences between the American-born and the native Japanese adults were relatively smaller than they had been during childhood, due to both an acceleration in the growth rate of the native Japanese and a concomitant decline in that of the American-born Japanese during the intervening years. A comparison of our 1956-57 data with Kondo and Eto's findings in Los Angeles in 1971 shows that there has been very little increase in the size of California-Japanese children since 1956. The curves of average heights of native Japanese children 6 to 20 years of age, at 10-year intervals from 1900 to 1970, disclosed the changing rate at which they grew during different decates of that period. Those curves and other data discussed in this paper provide additional evidence of the biological superiority of the human female as compared with the male.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2002

Secular changes in the quality of published randomized clinical trials in rheumatology.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the quality of published randomized clinical trials (RCTs) in rheumatology and to determine whether there has been improvement in quality between 2 time periods, 1987-1988 and 1997-1998. METHODS: Using MEDLINE and a hand search of selected rheumatology journals, we identified RCTs of adult rheumatic diseases published in English in 1987-1988 or 1997-1998. We examined trial quality with an expanded version of the Jadad scale, which assesses the adequacy of reported random sequence generation, allocation concealment, blinding, and analysis. All trials were read by 1 reviewer, with prior standardization using a random sample read by 2 reviewers. We also evaluated "high"- versus "low"-impact journals based on citation index. RESULTS: Two hundred forty RCTs (1987-1988 119 RCTs, 1997-1998 121 RCTs) were assessed. Results showed improvement in the quality of the trials, but the rates of reported random sequence generation, allocation concealment, power, and intent-to-treat analyses were persistently low. Low rates of reports of random sequence generation, allocation concealment, and intent-to-treat analyses were present even in the high-impact journals. CONCLUSION: There has been improvement in the quality of reporting of RCTs in rheumatology between 1987-1988 and 1997-1998. However, methodologic problems such as lack of allocation concealment, inadequate random sequence generation, lack of reporting of power, and lack of intent-to-treat analyses remain common. Many of these problems are established sources of bias in RCTs and are easily rectifiable.

Humans↗
PubMed2006

Secular changes in colorectal cancer incidence by subsite, stage at diagnosis, and race/ethnicity, 1992-2001.

BACKGROUND: Cancers of the colon and rectum are the third most common malignancy among males and females in the United States, although incidence and mortality have declined in recent years. We evaluated recent trends in colorectal cancer incidence in the United States by subsite and stage at diagnosis. METHODS: Data for this analysis included all cases of colorectal cancer diagnosed between 1992 and 2001 and reported to the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program. Incidence rates were stratified by gender, race/ethnicity, anatomic subsite, stage at diagnosis, and SEER registry. Trends in incidence over time were measured using the estimated annual percentage change. RESULTS: The study population included 95,539 males and 93,329 females with colorectal cancer. For all 12 SEER registries combined, incidence declined between 1992 and 2001 by 1.2% per year among males and 0.7% per year (not statistically significant) among females. Rates for non-Hispanic whites declined by an average of 1.3% per year for males and 0.6% per year for females. Overall rates for black, Asian/Pacific Islander, and Hispanic males and females did not change significantly except for a 0.8% decline among Asian/Pacific Islander males. Declines in rates among males and females were most pronounced for tumors of the sigmoid colon. CONCLUSIONS: Colorectal cancer rates decreased in the United States during the 1990s. Decreases were most pronounced among males, among non-Hispanic whites, and for tumors of the sigmoid colon. These reductions are probably dueto the increased use of screening.

Age Factors↗
PubMed1995

Prevalence and secular trends in obesity in Pacific and Indian Ocean island populations.

Surveys conducted in 10 Pacific island populations and in the multiethnic populations of Mauritius and Rodrigues in the Indian Ocean have provided data on the prevalence of obesity, potential etiological factors and medical hazards associated with obesity. The results indicate that the prevalence of obesity (by body mass index (BMI) in some of these populations is among the highest in the world. Obesity related to degree of modernization is more common in urban than in rural locations and tends to be found more often in women. In two populations where longitudinal data were available, there were dramatic increases in prevalence over relatively short time periods. Obesity contributed to the risk of non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (NIDDM) and was associated with other risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in all populations, but no relationship could be found with total mortality in three ethnic groups for whom data were available. A genetic susceptibility to obesity combined with social pressures that favor high energy intakes and reduced physical activity are believed to be important in these populations. The challenge for the future lies in developing culturally appropriate programs for preventing obesity and thus reducing associated morbidity, while continuing to research its behavioral and genetic determinants.

Adult↗
PubMed2003

Secular trend of age-specific prevalence of hepatitis B surface and e antigenemia in pregnant women in Taiwan.

To elucidate the impact of aging of hepatitis B carrier women on their viral replicative markers in a hepatitis B endemic area, all the parturients admitted to the Hospital were studied from 1985 to 2000. Serum hepatitis B surface (HBsAg) and hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) were tested by radioimmunoassay. Mann-Whitney U and Student's t-tests were used for statistical analysis. The results showed the yearly prevalence rate of HBsAg in pregnant women seemed stable with a mean of 12.0 +/- 1.1% during the period. The yearly positive rate of HBeAg among HBsAg-positive pregnant women varied between 30.4% and 42.6% from 1985 to 1992 and declined from 29.6% in 1993 to 18.1% in 2000. The mean ratio of HBeAg/HBsAg in carrier parturients was 24.7% [intraquantile range (IQR) 20.5-28.4] from 1993 to 2000, which was significantly lower than that of 32.4% (IQR 31.0-39.0) from 1985 to 1992 (P < 0.0001). The mean age of HBeAg-positive primiparas from 1993 to 2000 was 29.1 +/- 3.9 years and significantly higher than that of 28.0 +/- 3.7 years from 1985 to 1993 (P < 0.001), as well as in secundiparas 31.2 +/- 3.8 years vs. 30.1 +/- 3.4 years (P < 0.001) and in total parturients 30.3 +/- 4.2 years vs. 29.3 +/- 3.8 years (P < 0.001). Thus, no significant decrease of HBsAg carriage was observed in the past 16 years, whereas a decreased ratio of HBeAg/HBsAg was noted in carrier parturients in the past 8 years and the elderly HBeAg-positive parturients from 1993 to 2000 may be the cause.

Adolescent↗
PubMedDate not supplied

The effectiveness of interventions on incubation of AIDS as measured by secular increases within a population.

Methods are developed to estimate and test for the impact of intervention use on a population's survival function (time to AIDS). Each participant's history is divided into J + 1 components: omega 0 occurring before the intervention is available and omega 1 to omega J occurring later, as the intervention becomes successively more available. Distribution free truncated Kaplan-Meier models based on time since exposure fit separately to the risk sets/outcomes in omega 0 to omega J directly show the changing patterns of survival. Multivariate proportional hazards models can be used to adjust for covariates. Application of these methods indicates that availability of proven anti-AIDS interventions may have delayed time to AIDS by 8 months in an educated HIV-1 infected homosexual cohort with good access to medical care.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗