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The turnaround in Australia: some first observations from the 1991 census.

"The aim of this paper is to utilise recently released census results to examine patterns of population change in non-metropolitan Australia during the 1986-91 period, focusing particularly upon the net migration component of that change. The paper presents an overview of recent trends in population change in non-metropolitan areas and then moves to an analysis of net migration patterns in non-metropolitan local government areas during the late 1980s using a Life Table Survival Ratio technique to estimate net migration. It appears that the trends observed in the early 1980s have continued into the late 1980s and early 1990s, and that overall the 'turnaround' is slowing down and becoming more diversified, more complex, and much less predictable in the 1990s."

Australia↗

Modelling migration flows between areas: an analysis for London using the census and OPCS Longitudinal Study.

"This paper analyses migration between the London boroughs using a discrete probability model, but with a correction for excess dispersion to that expected under the Poisson process. Two sources of migration data are used: one-year migration from the 1981 Census; and ten-year migration from the OPCS Longitudinal Study. The evidence from both sets is that both housing and labour market factors are relevant to explaining interborough migration, in addition to the distance and mass terms of the basic gravity model. The labour market effects suggest that migration generally equilibrates differences in excess labour supply between the boroughs, though less strongly in the recession year 1980-81." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND GER)

Demography↗

Neighborhood ecology and drug dependence mortality: an analysis of New York City census tracts.

Drug dependence mortality appears to be highly concentrated in certain disadvantaged populations and in certain disadvantaged areas. Using a relatively large sample of census tract data for New York City, 1991-1995 (N = 2,037), the present study examines the structural covariates of drug dependence mortality rates. Spatially lagged negative binomial regression analyses indicated considerable support for previous findings regarding the importance of poverty as a predictor of drug mortality. Furthermore, two variables especially relevant for the social disorganization and deviant opportunity perspectives in criminology exhibited significant independent effects: the neighborhood homeownership rate and the prevalence of boarded-up housing. The results support various policy initiatives concerned with the relationship between neighborhood environment and public health.

Adult↗

The effects of census undercount adjustment on congressional apportionment.

"This article shows that undercount adjustment [of the 1990 U.S. census] will probably reallocate one [in] three House seats across the states. The adjustment's impact may depend on the method used and the assumptions underlying undercount estimates. Using regression analysis to reduce sampling error in undercount estimates from dual-systems analysis, however, eliminates sensitivity to all but the most extreme changes in assumptions. Generally, adjustment will more likely affect large states than small ones, and large states with proportionately many urban Black and Hispanic residents will likely gain seats at the expense of large states with few such residents."

Americas↗

Peripheral counter-urbanization: findings from an integration of census and survey data in Northern Scotland.

"This paper systematically relates local survey data to national census data in an investigation of one peripheral form of counter-urbanization now regarded as widely present in developed countries. The recent growth and spatial distribution of long-distance English migration to the Highlands and Islands of Scotland is described, and then 'explained' through multivariate analysis of cross-sectional data and through the stated motivations and characteristics of surveyed migrants to some of the remoter, rural parts of the region. The study reveals the importance of environmental and quality of life considerations." (summary in FRE, GER)

Behavior↗

Aged metropolitan-nonmetropolitan migration streams over three census decades.

One type of population redistribution is discussed in this paper. It is the migration of older people between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan locations as it has occurred over three decades. Both net migration and stream migration studies documented the metropolitan-to-nonmetropolitan turnaround between 1960 and 1970, but no three-decade trends have been established and thus the trend remains in doubt. The data used in this analysis came from the census microdata files, using the 1-in-100 samples in 1960 and 1970 and the 1-in-40 sample in 1980. Only the records of persons age 60 and over were examined. This analysis documents the continuation of the turnaround in 1980 among older migrants and pictures them as forerunners of larger migration trends. It also discusses the dynamics of the trend and some of the processes that may have brought it about and maintain it.

Data Collection↗

A census of economic evaluations in health promotion.

While policy makers argue for a greater share of health resources to go to health promotion, action is stalled by, among other things, the perception that little is known about which interventions offer the best health returns. Additionally, what is missing is any sense of what the economic literature in health promotion looks like overall. Where is the economic evidence plentiful and where is it scant? The project described here compiled a census of economic evaluations in health promotion. Studies were classified according to a four-part typology that documented the strategic intent of the intervention, the risk factor being addressed, the population most affected and the setting in which the intervention took place. Since 1990, there have been over 400 economic evaluations of health-promoting interventions in the peer review and grey literatures. Of these, 90% address biological or behavioral determinants of health. Relatively little is known about the economics of population health advocacy or interventions to tackle the social and economic determinants of health. Initiatives are in place to increase the availability of economic evidence. Research is also needed into how to support decision makers' use of imperfect, incomplete and uncertain information.

Cost-Benefit Analysis↗

Estimated consumption and eating frequency of olestra from savory snacks using menu census data.

Potential chronic (14-d average) and acute (single-day) estimated daily intakes (EDI) were computed for olestra, a fat replacement intended for use in preparing savory snacks. The EDI were computed from eating occasions reported during a 14-d Menu Census survey among 4741 consumers; values were increased by 10% for conservatism. The eating occasions included all meals and in-between meal occasions eaten at home or away. Data from only those individuals who ate savory snacks at least once during the 14 d were used; this included 3820 individuals (81% of the sample) and represented a total of 16,067 eating days (24% frequency). The estimated mean chronic intake ranged from 1.8 to 4.7 g/d, depending on age and gender; at the 90th percentile, the range was 4.1-11.0 g/d. For all ages and both genders, the estimated mean intake was 3.1 g/d. Estimated acute intakes at the mean and 90th percentile ranged from 5.5 to 16.5 g/d and from 10.2 to 24.0 g/d, respectively, depending on age and gender. For all ages and both genders, the estimated mean intake was 10.2 g/d. The lack of parity in the chronic and acute intake estimates indicates that savory snacks are not eaten on a daily basis by the majority of snack eaters. The survey data were analyzed to understand the potential temporal eating patterns of olestra from savory snacks. When snacks were consumed, on average, 69% of the eating occasions were with main meals and 31% were between meals. Savory snacks did not contribute a major fraction of total food to the diet; only 7 and 18% of main meals contained a savory snack food at the 50th and 90th percentile, respectively. For the 50th-percentile consumer (all ages, both genders), savory snacks were eaten four times during the 14-d survey period, and the eating occasions occurred on 3 d. Comparable results for 90th-percentile consumers were 10 eating occasions and 8 eating days.

Adolescent↗

Social class and the black/white crossover in the age-specific incidence of breast cancer: a study linking census-derived data to population-based registry records.

An unexplained racial crossover in breast cancer rates in the United States has been apparent since 1969: among women over age 40 years, the rate is higher among white compared with black women, while among women under age 40, the reverse is true. To explore the contribution of social class to this phenomenon, the present study used 1980 census block-group data to generate population-based age-specific breast cancer rates stratified by race and class. Cancer data included all black women (n = 405) and white women (n = 4,259) diagnosed with primary breast cancer during 1979-1981 in the San Francisco Bay Area Resource for Cancer Control registry. Among women under age 40, the black/white incidence ratio among women from predominantly working class block-groups was 1.08 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.74-1.56), but among those from non-working class block-groups, the black/white ratio equaled 1.96 (95% CI 1.17-3.26). Among women age 40 years or over, the black/white incidence ratio among women from working class block-groups was 0.78 (95% CI 0.68-0.89), but was 0.98 (95% CI 0.78-1.23) among women from non-working class block-groups. These findings underscore the class-based nature of the observed crossover and pose a challenge to accepted theories of breast cancer etiology. Possible risk factors contributing to these findings are discussed, including induced abortion and oral contraceptive use prior to first full-term pregnancy.

Adult↗

The determinants of average daily census in public mental hospitals: a simultaneous model.

Increasing effort and resources are being devoted to reducing the reliance on state institutions for the mentally ill. Little empirical support is available for many of the proposed policies. In this article we construct and estimate a model based on the assertion that rates of institutionalization in public mental hospitals are dependent upon the availability of alternative treatment facilities, the legal environment, the prevalence of mental illness and the cost of care. A two-equation model is estimated using pooled cross-sectional state data for 1974 and 1975. The results show a significant correlation between rates of public mental hospital average daily census and expenditures per patient day, certain aspects of commitment statutes and the presence of Community Mental Health Center and alcoholic halfway-house beds.

Community Mental Health Centers↗

Coping with census fluctuations.

Census fluctuations are the latest challenge for nurse managers, recruiters, and human resource professionals. How health care facilities deal with this problem affects retention and recruitment.

Bed Occupancy↗

Life history and environmental variation interact to determine effective population to census size ratio.

Successful recovery and sustainability of threatened and exploited species depends in part on retention and maintenance of genetic diversity. Theory indicates that genetic diversity is lost at a rate inversely proportional to the genetically effective population size (N(e)), which is roughly equal to one-half the adult census size (N) in many organisms. However, N(e) has been reported to be up to five orders of magnitude lower than N in species with life histories that result in type III survivorship (high fecundity, but heavy mortality in early life stages, e.g. bony fishes), prompting speculation that low values of N(e) may be a general feature of such organisms despite sometimes vast abundances. Here, we compared N(e) and the ratio N(e)/N across three ecologically similar fish species from the arid southwestern United States, all with type III life histories but with differing expectations of egg and larval survivorship that correlate with the degree of human-imposed habitat fragmentation. Our study indicates that type III life history may be necessary, but this alone is insufficient to account for extraordinarily low values of N(e)/N. Rather, life history interacts with environmentally imposed mortality to determine the rate and magnitude of change in genetic diversity in these desert fish species.

Animals↗

Maternal morbidity and pregnancy outcome in a cohort of mothers transferred out of perinatal centres during a national census.

OBJECTIVE: To record the maternal morbidity and pregnancy outcome in this cohort. DESIGN: Retrospective data collection from a prospectively defined cohort. SETTING: The 37 largest perinatal centres in the UK. POPULATION: 258 in utero transfers recorded during a three-month census (1/4/99-30/6/99). METHODS: A questionnaire regarding the outcome of each mother was sent to the perinatal centre and receiving hospital. RESULTS: Data were returned on 242/258 (94%) mothers. Fifty-eight percent were transferred out of their perinatal centre in preterm labour and 38% had coexisting disease necessitating early delivery. The median gestational age at transfer was 32 weeks (range 23-41). Sixty-one percent delivered at the receiving hospital; 12% were transferred on to a third hospital and 29% ultimately returned to deliver at the original perinatal centre. Fifty-two percent of mothers received postnatal care in hospitals other than those defined as a major perinatal centre. One mother delivered during transfer and a further nine within one hour of arrival. One mother received intensive care after delivery and later died, a further 7% required high dependency care postnatally. Data were available on 273/333 (82%) babies. The median gestational age at delivery was 34 weeks (range 24-41). Six infants were stillborn and 187/264 (71%) infants were admitted to a neonatal unit. CONCLUSIONS: This study has documented the maternal morbidity, potential risks and pregnancy outcome of a cohort of mothers transferred out of the largest perinatal centres in the UK because of a shortage of neonatal cots. A national standard for the delivery of high risk perinatal services is needed to uphold good clinical practice guidelines in the care of high risk mothers and their infants.

Bed Occupancy↗

Fertility and sibship size in a psychiatric patient population. A comparison with national census data.

Fertility and sibship size of 2,518 psychiatric inpatients during 1968-1975 were compared with national census data and examined according to psychiatric diagnoses, psychiatric diseases in first-degree relatives, early psychic disturbances, duration of disease, and school achievement. Fertility is markedly reduced in all diagnostic subgroups, though particularly in schizophrenia. While psychic disturbances before the age of 15, as an index of a severe disturbance of personality, reduced fertility even further, no significant correlation was found with the duration of the patients' actual disease. Less than ordinary schooling, but also higher qualifications led to a further reduction in fertility. This is particularly so in schizophrenia. Schizophrenics have their children at a later stage of their reproductive career. The psychological and biological consequences of this fact for the transmission of schizophrenia are discussed in detail. No change of fertility relative to the normal population was detected during the observed 8 years. There is suggestive evidence that patients stem from families smaller than expected from the national data. The inherent methodological problems are discussed. The results do not favour the hypothesis of a balanced polymorphism as a mechanism which could explain the constant incidence of psychoses in spite of the severe selection pressure against them.

Adolescent↗

Ethnicity and foster care: census data as predictors of placement variables.

An epidemiological approach to foster care is presented, in which two separate data sets are used to analyze issues of ethnicity and child placement. A national probability sample and a large-city sample are drawn from the 1980 Office of Civil Rights ethnic survey and from the 1980 U.S. Census in order to test several hypotheses on ethnic differences predictive of time in care.

Child↗

Passive acoustic location of bowhead whales in a population census off Point Barrow, Alaska.

A sonobuoy array placed in the nearshore lead was used for locating bowhead whale sounds to determine if whales migrated past census stations beyond visual range and were uncounted. Based on a sample of 182 whale sounds (over 48 h) from closest point of approach (CPA) distances out to more than 10 km, 68% originated beyond 2 km (CPA), where only 1% of the 242 whales were sighted. No whales were sighted beyond 3 km during this time, but 53% of the located sounds originated that far and beyond. Thirty-seven other bowhead sounds over 15 h were distributed out to 6 km. Two tracked whales moved at average speeds of 1.5 and 1.8 kn. Maximum location error was 1%-25% in a sector of 120 degrees X 5-10 km, depending upon bearing and range. Most whale sounds were low-frequency moans, trumpeting roars, and repetitive sequences (songs) with peak spectrum source level up to 189 dB re: 1 microPa, 1 m. Lack of correlations between numbers of sounds and sighted whales precluded using bowhead sounds to count individuals or even to extrapolate ratios of unseen to observed whales.

Alaska↗

Census of single homeless people in Sheffield.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the number of single homeless people in Sheffield and to examine their demography and social and medical details. DESIGN: Census carried out between 8 am and 8 pm on one day. Participants completed a questionnaire designed to provide data relating to employment history, contact with welfare and health services, social state, prison history, medical history, and health state. SETTING: Sites in Sheffield identified by local workers as being places of residence of homeless people. SUBJECTS: 340 single homeless people. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Self reported history of alcohol or drug misuse, existence of a chronic medical condition, and use of general practitioner and hospital services. RESULTS: The mean age of the population was 42.5 years and a quarter of the population were aged less than 30; there were 48 women. Significant differences were noted between men and women with respect to self reported psychiatric illness (77/266 men v 27/42 women), self reported alcoholism (83/273 v 4/44), prison history (152/255 v 8/41), and registration with a general practitioner (73/275 v 38/46). Various chronic medical conditions were reported, and the perceived health state of the population was low; 129 claimed to have been admitted to a psychiatric hospital. 220 people were registered with a general practitioner, and 179 claimed to see their doctor. Sixty five had attended or been admitted to a general hospital in the month preceding the study, 45 for accident and emergency services. CONCLUSIONS: The homeless in this population were younger than those found in previous studies. The prevalence of psychiatric illness was high in the population, and the overall health state was poor. Most subjects obtained health services from general practitioners.

Adolescent↗