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Predicting spring phenology and frost damage risk of Betula spp. under climatic warming: a comparison of two models.

Timing of bud burst and frost damage risk for leaves of Betula spp. in response to climatic warming in Finland was examined with two models. In the first model, ontogenetic development in spring was triggered by an accumulation of chilling temperatures. The second model assumed an additional signal from the light climate. The two models gave radically different estimates of frost damage risk in response to climate warming. The chilling-triggered model forecast a significant and increasing risk with increased warming, whereas the light-climate-triggered model predicted little or no risk. The chilling-triggered model is widely applied in phenological research; however, there is increasing experimental evidence that light conditions play a role in the timing of spring phenology. Although it is not clear if the light response mechanisms are appropriately represented in our model, the results imply that reliance on a light signal for spring development would afford a degree of protection against possible frost damage under climate warming that would not be present if chilling were the sole determinant. Further experimental tests are required to ascertain the light-related mechanisms controlling phenological timing, so that credible model extrapolations can be undertaken.

Journal Article↗

Floods and climate change: interactions and impacts.

Whether the floods experienced during the last decade in Germany and in other European countries are triggered or worsened by human activities has been the subject of a great deal of debate. Possible anthropogenic activities leading to increased flood risk include river regulation measures, intensified land use and forestry, and emissions of greenhouse gases causing a change in the global climate. This article discusses the latter by reviewing the existing knowledge on the subject. First, the relevance, capabilities, and limitations of climate models for the simulation and analysis of flood risk under aspects of the anthropogenic climate change are described. Special consideration is given here to differences between the "typical" spatial scale of climate models and hydrological flood models. Second, observations of trends in climate variables relevant for river flooding issues are summarized. Special emphasis is put on the Rhine and other German catchment areas. Third, the possibilities of modeling the different parts of the "cascade of flood risk" are summarized, introducing the special features of meteorological, hydrological, and river hydraulic models.

Journal Article↗

Action on climate change: the health risks of procrastinating.

OBJECTIVE: The world's climate will continue to change because of human influence. This is expected to affect health, mostly adversely. We need to compare the projected health effects in Australia arising from differing climate change scenarios to inform greenhouse gas emission (mitigation) policy. METHODS: We estimated health effects in Australia (heatwave mortality, dengue transmission regions) around 2100 under various greenhouse gas scenarios: "strong policy action" (efforts made now to reduce emissions) and "no policy action" (emissions continue at present high levels with no climate change-specific policies). RESULTS: Compared with no policy action, mitigation could reduce the number of deaths caused by hot temperatures among older Australians by 4,000-7,000 a year (range reflects likely population size at 2100). Under a scenario of "no action", the zone of potential transmission of dengue fever expands 1,800 kilometres (km) south, as far as Sydney. In contrast, by markedly constraining greenhouse gas emissions now, this southward extension could be limited to 600 km (to Rockhampton). The number of displaced people within the Asia-Pacific region could increase (by orders of magnitude) under the "no action" scenario because of adverse socioecological circumstances aggravated by climate change. CONCLUSIONS: Additional health effects will accrue as a result of the projected climate change throughout this century, and individuals and health systems should be prepared for some level of adaptation. However, timely and strong policy action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions would diminish the extent and severity of estimated future health effects.

Australia↗

Dangerous news: media decision making about climate change risk.

This article explores the role of broadcast news media decision makers in shaping public understanding and debate of climate change risks. It locates the media within a "tangled web" of communication and debate between sources, media, and publics. The article draws on new qualitative research in the British context. The main body of it focuses on media source strategies, on climate change storytelling in news, and the "myth of detachment" sustained by many news decision makers. The empirical evidence, gathered between 1997 and 2004, is derived primarily from recordings and notes drawn from a series of seminars that has brought together equal numbers of BBC news and television decision makers and environment/development specialists. The seminars have created a rare space for extended dialogue between media and specialist perspectives on the communication of complex climate change science and policy. While the article acknowledges the distinctive nature of the BBC as a public sector broadcaster, the evidence confirms and extends current understanding of the career of climate change within the media more broadly. The working group discussions have explored issues arising out of how stories are sourced and, in the context of competitive and time-pressured newsrooms, shaped and presented in short news pieces. Particularly significant is the disjuncture between ways of talking about uncertainty within science and policy discourse and media constructions of objectivity, truth, and balance. The article concludes with a summary of developments in media culture, technology, and practice that are creating opportunities for enhanced public understanding and debate of climate change risks. It also indicates the need for science and policy communities to be more active critics and sources of news.

Journal Article↗

American risk perceptions: is climate change dangerous?

Public risk perceptions can fundamentally compel or constrain political, economic, and social action to address particular risks. Public support or opposition to climate policies (e.g., treaties, regulations, taxes, subsidies) will be greatly influenced by public perceptions of the risks and dangers posed by global climate change. This article describes results from a national study (2003) that examined the risk perceptions and connotative meanings of global warming in the American mind and found that Americans perceived climate change as a moderate risk that will predominantly impact geographically and temporally distant people and places. This research also identified several distinct interpretive communities, including naysayers and alarmists, with widely divergent perceptions of climate change risks. Thus, "dangerous" climate change is a concept contested not only among scientists and policymakers, but among the American public as well.

Journal Article↗

Hospital nurses' perceptions of the ethical climate of their work setting.

PURPOSE: To develop an instrument to measure how hospital nurses perceive the ethical climate of their work setting and to evaluate its psychometric properties. A way to measure ethical climate can help nurses understand the work setting influences on their practice and can be used to diagnose areas for organizational change as well as to evaluate effectiveness of organizational interventions. DESIGN: Descriptive. Instrument developed was the Hospital Ethical Climate Survey (HECS). Sampled were 360 RNs (48% response rate) employed in clinical practice at two acute-care hospitals in one U.S. midwestern city. The nurses completed a questionnaire in 1993-1994 consisting of items developed to assess their perceptions of ethical climate, along with the 43-item Integrity Audit, a social desirability scale, and a demographic inventory. METHODS: Construct validity was assessed by confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) using the LISREL 7 statistical program. RESULTS: The final CFA model consisted of 26 variables in five factors, which were organized according to the relationships of nurses with peers, patients, managers, hospital, and physicians. Internal consistency reliability, using Cronbach's alpha, for the final 26-item instrument was 0.91 (range 0.68 to 0.92) for the subscales. CONCLUSIONS: The Hospital Ethical Climate Survey has acceptable initial reliability and validity.

Attitude of Health Personnel↗

The relationship between achievement goal profile groups and perceptions of motivational climates in sport.

The purpose of the present study was to expand on previous research that has found compatibility between individuals' views on achievement and the type of achievement that was promoted in the sport environment they belonged to. However, this line of research has ignored the fact that the two main goal orientations are largely independent and that their impact in combination is often different from their effects examined separately. The present study, therefore, examined which combinations of goal orientations are compatible with perceptions of mastery and performance climates in a sample of 146 British university students. With regard to mastery climate, the analysis showed that the critical factor was the degree of task orientation since those with high scores in this factor (irrespective of the degree of their ego orientation) perceived the climate as more mastery-oriented than those with low scores in task orientation. This was substantiated by the large differences in effect sizes between the high- and low-task groups. As far as performance climate was concerned, the most negative perceptions of climate were held by those who were rated both low in task orientation and high in ego orientation. A general inference from these results is that high task orientation is motivationally adaptive, whereas high ego orientation is not motivationally detrimental as long as it is accompanied by a high task orientation. These findings are in contrast with previous suggestions that have called for the enhancement of task orientation with the concurrent suppression of ego orientation. Our results are, however, consonant with studies which have employed a goal profiles analysis in sport and in physical education, and with empirical evidence from real sport settings.

Achievement↗

The relationship between cataract and climatic droplet keratopathy in Mongolia.

This study evaluated the association between cataract, the commonest single blinding disorder worldwide, and climatic droplet keratopathy which was taken as an indicator of high exposure to ultraviolet sunlight. A sample of 4344 persons from rural Mongolia (1991-92) provided 8634 eyes for analysis of the relationship between cataract and climatic droplet keratopathy. Right and left eyes were combined (paired into matched sets), and analysed using a random-effects regression model. The results indicated an inverse association between cataract and climatic droplet keratopathy in person aged 55 years or older, whereby eyes with more advanced climatic droplet keratopathy had lower prevalence of cataract (age-adjusted odds ratio 0.53, p = 0.047). In the younger group of persons aged 40-54 years, the reverse was found, whereby cataract prevalence was higher in eyes that have climatic droplet keratopathy (age-adjusted odds ratio 13.19, p = 0.046). However, only a small proportion (4%) of all the cataracts occurred in this younger age stratum where the prevalence of cataract was 0.5%, compared to prevalence of 17% in eyes of persons aged 55 years or older. These findings cast further doubts upon the current thesis that lifetime exposure to high levels of ultraviolet sunlight is a major cause of cataract in developing countries.

Adult↗

Testing the reliability and validity of a measure of safety climate.

The lack of compliance with universal precautions (UP) is well documented across a wide variety of healthcare professions and has been reported both before and after the enactment of the Occupational Safety and Health Administration's Bloodborne Pathogens Standard. Gershon, Karkashian, and Felknor (1994) found that several factors correlated significantly with healthcare workers' lack of compliance with UP, including a measure of organizational safety climate (e.g., the employees' perception of their organizational culture and practices regarding safety). We conducted a secondary analysis using data from a cross-sectional survey of a convenience sample of 1,746 healthcare workers at risk of occupational exposure to bloodborne pathogens to assess the validity and reliability of Gershon's measure of safety climate. Findings revealed no relationship between safety climate and employees' gender, age, education, tenure in position, profession, hours worked per day, perceived risk, attitude toward risk, and training. An association was demonstrated between safety climate and (1) healthcare worker compliance with UP and (2) the availability of personal protective equipment, providing support for the construct validity of this measure of safety climate. These findings could be used by occupational health professionals to assess employees' perceptions of the safety culture and practices in the workplace and to guide the institution's risk management efforts in association with U.P.

Adult↗

The Sun's role in climate variations.

Is the Sun the controller of climate changes, only the instigator of changes that are mostly forced by the system feedbacks, or simply a convenient scapegoat for climate variations lacking any other obvious cause? This question is addressed for suggested solar forcing mechanisms operating on time scales from billions of years to decades. Each mechanism fails to generate the expected climate response in important respects, although some relations are found. The magnitude of the system feedbacks or variability appears as large or larger than that of the solar forcing, making the Sun's true role ambiguous. As the Sun provides an explicit external forcing, a better understanding of its cause and effect in climate change could help us evaluate the importance of other climate forcings (such as past and future greenhouse gas changes).

Journal Article↗

Abrupt climate change.

Large, abrupt, and widespread climate changes with major impacts have occurred repeatedly in the past, when the Earth system was forced across thresholds. Although abrupt climate changes can occur for many reasons, it is conceivable that human forcing of climate change is increasing the probability of large, abrupt events. Were such an event to recur, the economic and ecological impacts could be large and potentially serious. Unpredictability exhibited near climate thresholds in simple models shows that some uncertainty will always be associated with projections. In light of these uncertainties, policy-makers should consider expanding research into abrupt climate change, improving monitoring systems, and taking actions designed to enhance the adaptability and resilience of ecosystems and economies.

Journal Article↗

Causes of climate change over the past 1000 years

Recent reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperatures and climate forcing over the past 1000 years allow the warming of the 20th century to be placed within a historical context and various mechanisms of climate change to be tested. Comparisons of observations with simulations from an energy balance climate model indicate that as much as 41 to 64% of preanthropogenic (pre-1850) decadal-scale temperature variations was due to changes in solar irradiance and volcanism. Removal of the forced response from reconstructed temperature time series yields residuals that show similar variability to those of control runs of coupled models, thereby lending support to the models' value as estimates of low-frequency variability in the climate system. Removal of all forcing except greenhouse gases from the approximately 1000-year time series results in a residual with a very large late-20th-century warming that closely agrees with the response predicted from greenhouse gas forcing. The combination of a unique level of temperature increase in the late 20th century and improved constraints on the role of natural variability provides further evidence that the greenhouse effect has already established itself above the level of natural variability in the climate system. A 21st-century global warming projection far exceeds the natural variability of the past 1000 years and is greater than the best estimate of global temperature change for the last interglacial.

Journal Article↗

Improving the climate in research and scientific training environments for members of underrepresented minorities.

Despite significant efforts in recent years to increase diversity in science and academia, African Americans, Hispanics, and American Indian/Alaskan Natives remain severely underrepresented in these fields. To date, institutional social climate has received little attention as a target to improve the representation of these minority groups. In this article, we suggest that improvement in the social climate in both individual laboratories and larger institutions may lead to better recruitment and retention of minorities in science and academia. After documenting the magnitude of the underrepresentation problem, we offer a framework for a better understanding of climate, illustrate how members of majority and minority groups may perceive climate differently, and provide specific recommendations for improving the climate. The benefits of a diverse workforce in the sciences include a commitment to social justice, a broad diversity of perspectives leading to greater opportunities for scientific advancement, and a potentially enhanced focus on understanding and eliminating the health disparities among different racial and ethnic groups.

Attitude↗

Climate change and health: global to local influences on disease risk.

The World Health Organization has concluded that the climatic changes that have occurred since the mid 1970s could already be causing annually over 150,000 deaths and five million disability-adjusted life-years (DALY), mainly in developing countries. The less developed countries are, ironically, those least responsible for causing global warming. Many health outcomes and diseases are sensitive to climate, including: heat-related mortality or morbidity; air pollution-related illnesses; infectious diseases, particularly those transmitted, indirectly, via water or by insect or rodent vectors; and refugee health issues linked to forced population migration. Yet, changing landscapes can significantly affect local weather more acutely than long-term climate change. Land-cover change can influence micro-climatic conditions, including temperature, evapo-transpiration and surface run-off, that are key determinants in the emergence of many infectious diseases. To improve risk assessment and risk management of these synergistic processes (climate and land-use change), more collaborative efforts in research, training and policy-decision support, across the fields of health, environment, sociology and economics, are required.

Communicable Diseases↗

Projected climate change impact on oceanic acidification.

BACKGROUND: Anthropogenic CO2 uptake by the ocean decreases the pH of seawater, leading to an 'acidification' which may have potential detrimental consequences on marine organisms. Ocean warming or circulation alterations induced by climate change has the potential to slowdown the rate of acidification of ocean waters by decreasing the amount of CO2 uptake by the ocean. However, a recent study showed that climate change affected the decrease in pH insignificantly. Here, we examine the sensitivity of future oceanic acidification to climate change feedbacks within a coupled atmosphere-ocean model and find that ocean warming dominates the climate change feedbacks. RESULTS: Our results show that the direct decrease in pH due to ocean warming is approximately equal to but opposite in magnitude to the indirect increase in pH associated with ocean warming (ie reduced DIC concentration of the upper ocean caused by lower solubility of CO2). CONCLUSION: As climate change feedbacks on pH approximately cancel, future oceanic acidification will closely follow future atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This suggests the only way to slowdown or mitigate the potential biological consequences of future ocean acidification is to significantly reduce fossil-fuel emissions of CO2 to the atmosphere.

Journal Article↗

Potential impact of global climate change on malaria risk.

The biological activity and geographic distribution of the malarial parasite and its vector are sensitive to climatic influences, especially temperature and precipitation. We have incorporated General Circulation Model-based scenarios of anthropogenic global climate change in an integrated linked-system model for predicting changes in malaria epidemic potential in the next century. The concept of the disability-adjusted life years is included to arrive at a single measure of the effect of anthropogenic climate change on the health impact of malaria. Assessment of the potential impact of global climate change on the incidence of malaria suggests a widespread increase of risk due to expansion of the areas suitable for malaria transmission. This predicted increase is most pronounced at the borders of endemic malaria areas and at higher altitudes within malarial areas. The incidence of infection is sensitive to climate changes in areas of Southeast Asia, South America, and parts of Africa where the disease is less endemic; in these regions the numbers of years of healthy life lost may increase significantly. However, the simulated changes in malaria risk must be interpreted on the basis of local environmental conditions, the effects of socioeconomic developments, and malaria control programs or capabilities.

Animals↗

The institutional climate for lesbian, gay and bisexual education faculty: what is the pivotal frame of reference?

This article presents data gathered from a national sample (n = 104) of lesbian, gay, and bisexual education faculty members and researchers. Here, the author examines three general dimensions through which these respondents judge their institutional climate--characterized as gay affirming, gay tolerant, gay neutral, gay intolerant, or gay hostile--and four unique factors that distinguish their assessment. Four questions are addressed: (1) How do sexual minority faculty in schools, colleges, and departments of education characterize their institutional climate? (2) What institutional dimension is most salient in these faculty members' assessment of this climate? (3) What are the factors that differentiate sexual minority faculty members' perceptions in this study? (4) Which of these factors, if any, significantly contribute to their assessment of institutional climate? Using multivariate analyses, the author identifies one pivotal frame of reference that accounts for most of the variance in respondents' differing assessments of their institutional climate and explores differences between lesbian and gay male respondents as well as those working in public and private, independent institutions. Implications for those seeking to reduce institutional heterosexism and homophobia are discussed.

Bisexuality↗

Workplace drinking climate, stress, and problem indicators: assessing the influence of teamwork (group cohesion).

OBJECTIVE: While job-related alcohol use may be associated with problems for drinkers, less is known about the effects of employee drinking on co-workers. We hypothesized that either exposure to co-worker drinking or the presence of a drinking climate would positively correlate with reports of stress and other problems. Following previous research, we also predicted that work group cohesion (or team orientation) would buffer against such problems. METHOD: Two random samples of municipal employees (Ns = 909 and 1,068) completed anonymous surveys. These assessed individual drinking, co-worker drinking, task-oriented group cohesion, the direct reports of negative consequences due to co-worker substance use, and five problem indicators: job stress, job withdrawal, health problems, and performance (work accidents and absences). RESULTS: In each sample, drinking climate correlated with stress and withdrawal more so than did reports of individual drinking. Drinking climate and individual job stress were negatively associated with cohesion. ANCOVA results indicated that drinking climate combined with low cohesion resulted in increased vulnerability for all five problems. Moreover, cohesion appeared to attenuate the negative impact of exposure to drinking norms. CONCLUSIONS: As many as 40% of employees report at least one negative consequence associated with co-worker substance use (alcohol and drugs). Because teamwork may buffer negative effects of drinking climate on co-workers, workplace prevention efforts might be enhanced through a focus on the social environment. These efforts would include team-building and discussions of the impact of co-worker drinking on employee productivity.

Adult↗