Warning signs for heart attack and stroke: what more can we do?
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OBJECTIVE: To examine the clinical characteristics and 30-day fatality rate among patients with electrocardiograms (ECGs) ineligible for fibrinolysis in a consecutive series in four general hospitals in the UK. METHODS: We studied 2439 consecutive patients who were identified from regular ward visits, surveillance of results from hospital laboratories, and hospital discharge coding. RESULTS: Thirty percent (732) of patients did not have ECGs eligible for fibrinolysis therapy, while indications were uncertain in 55 (2%). Within the ineligible group, patients presenting with ST depression (n = 294) had a higher 30-day fatality rate than those with ST elevation or left bundle branch block (26% versus 17%; P < 0.001); they represented 40% of the group ineligible for fibrinolysis therapy, or 12% of the total cohort. Thirty-day fatality rates in patients presenting with pathological Q waves and no diagnostic ST segment changes (n = 130), those with T wave changes but no other abnormality (n = 168) and those with a normal ECG (n = 128) were 10%, 5% and 3%, respectively. Despite their high fatality rate, fewer patients with ST depression were admitted to coronary care units than those with ECGs eligible for fibrinolysis therapy (61% versus 85%; P < 0.001) and 23% did not receive heparin. The coronary anatomy in a subset of patients with ST depression showed two- or three-vessel disease in 79% and left main stenosis in 9%. The rates of coronary revascularisation were low in all groups (< 10%). CONCLUSION: Patients with ECGs ineligible for fibrinolysis therapy are a disparate group, with a high rate of fatality occurring in patients who present with ST depression. The high prevalence of multiple vessel coronary disease in patients with ST depression suggests that a more active management strategy is required.
AIMS: To investigate the current use of thrombolytic therapy in the management of patients with acute myocardial infarction and to determine the potential for an increased use of thrombolysis or percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (PTCA). METHODS AND RESULTS: All hospitalised cases of acute myocardial infarction were identified in three health districts in the UK (population of 960,000) in patients under the age of 76 years during a 2-year period; 2439 patients had acute myocardial infarction, of whom 1264 (52%) received thrombolytic therapy. Failure to administer thrombolytic therapy was a result of the absence of diagnostic electrocardiograms in 712 (29.2%) patients, late presentation in 127 (5.2%), therapeutic error in 112 (4.6%), presence of a bleeding risk in 139 (5.7%) and other miscellaneous reasons in 80 (3.3%) patients. Thirty-eight of the 139 patients in whom bleeding risk was reported as a contra-indication could, in retrospect, have received thrombolytic therapy and a further 76 would have been suitable for primary PTCA. CONCLUSIONS: The potential for increasing the use of thrombolytic therapy seems to be limited and is unlikely to make a major impact on the in-hospital mortality from acute myocardial infarction. However, primary PTCA should be considered in those who are ineligible for thrombolysis because of bleeding risk as a contra-indication.
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OBJECTIVE: To see if changes in the demographics and illness burden of Medicare patients hospitalized for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) from 1995 through 1999 can explain an observed rise (from 32 percent to 34 percent) in one-year mortality over that period. DATA SOURCES: Utilization data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) fee-for-service claims (MedPAR, Outpatient, and Carrier Standard Analytic Files); patient demographics and date of death from CMS Denominator and Vital Status files. For over 1.5 million AMI discharges in 1995-1999 we retain diagnoses from one year prior, and during, the case-defining admission. STUDY DESIGN: We fit logistic regression models to predict one-year mortality for the 1995 cases and apply them to 1996-1999 files. The CORE model uses age, sex, and original reason for Medicare entitlement to predict mortality. Three other models use the CORE variables plus morbidity indicators from well-known morbidity classification methods (Charlson, DCG, and AHRQ's CCS). Regressions were used as is--without pruning to eliminate clinical or statistical anomalies. Each model references the same diagnoses--those recorded during the pre- and index admission periods. We compare each model's ability to predict mortality and use each to calculate risk-adjusted mortality in 1996-1999. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The comprehensive morbidity classifications (DCG and CCS) led to more accurate predictions than the Charlson, which dominated the CORE model (validated C-statistics: 0.81, 0.82, 0.74, and 0.66, respectively). Using the CORE model for risk adjustment reduced, but did not eliminate, the mortality increase. In contrast, adjustment using any of the morbidity models produced essentially flat graphs. CONCLUSIONS: Prediction models based on claims-derived demographics and morbidity profiles can be extremely accurate. While one-year post-AMI mortality in Medicare may not be worsening, outcomes appear not to have continued to improve as they had in the prior decade. Rich morbidity information is available in claims data, especially when longitudinally tracked across multiple settings of care, and is important in setting performance targets and evaluating trends.
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Patterns of illness behavior evident soon after myocardial infarction (MI) were examined in relation to psychosocial outcome eight months later. Significant associations, largely between illness behaviour reflecting affective distress and aspects of psychosocial outcome, hint at a causal relationship between the two. The importance of this is considered in terms of the clinical management of MI survivors.
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