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Invasive pneumococcal disease in England and Wales: what is the true burden and what is the potential for prevention using 7 valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine?

BACKGROUND: The annual reported incidence rates for laboratory confirmed invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) underestimate the true burden of invasive disease attributable to pneumococcal infection. AIMS: To estimate the proportion of "unspecified" mortality of infectious cause in infants and young children aged 1 month to 4 years reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in England and Wales that could reasonably be attributed to IPD, thereby revising the total number of deaths per year potentially attributable to IPD, and producing a more accurate figure for the number of deaths that may be prevented by a programme of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination. METHODS: Polymerase chain reaction, latex agglutination, and other alternate methodologies to microbiological culture have been applied in various studies to the detection of Streptococcus pneumoniae. Some of these tests have been shown to be more sensitive indicators of pneumococcal infection. In our analysis the implications of these tests were applied theoretically to the "unspecified" clinical deaths caused by septicaemia, meningitis, and pneumonia reported by the ONS, with a 20% correction/reduction factor for nasopharyngeal carriage which these sensitive tests may coincidentally detect. RESULTS: The ONS reported an average of 13 deaths per year (1989-99) in infants and children aged 1 month to 4 years caused by pneumococcal septicaemia, meningitis, or pneumonia. By applying the rates for the more sensitive tests to the most recent ONS "unspecified" mortality data available (1999), the actual annual number of deaths caused by IPD in the age group 1 month to 4 years is shown to be at least as high as 43. CONCLUSIONS: The mortality as a result of IPD in infants and young children may be at least three times the reported rate. The 7 valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine may have the potential to prevent up to 26 (61%) of the IPD deaths per year in infants and young children in England and Wales alone.

Child, Preschool↗

Ascertainment of children with congenital cataract through the National Congenital Anomaly System in England and Wales.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Congenital ocular anomalies contribute significantly to childhood visual morbidity, with congenital cataract being a major cause of visual impairment throughout the world. As in many other countries, a National Congenital Anomaly System (NCAS) exists in England and Wales to monitor the frequency of ocular and other anomalies in order to identify new public health hazards and inform aetiological research. The aim of this study was to assess level of ascertainment by the NCAS of children with congenital cataract. METHODS: Using independent ophthalmic and paediatric national active surveillance schemes, all infants (< or =1 year) newly diagnosed with congenital and infantile cataract in England and Wales in 1 year from September 1995 were identified. These notifications were compared with those made independently to the NCAS during the same period. The proportion of cases identified by the active surveillance schemes and also notified to the NCAS was determined. RESULTS: 10% (15/149) of eligible children with newly diagnosed congenital or infantile cataract were actually notified to the NCAS. A higher proportion of those diagnosed as neonates (16%, 14/85) than in later infancy (2%, 1/64) was ascertained through the NCAS. There is a need for better verification of notifications and reported information in the NCAS. CONCLUSION: Currently, ascertainment of congenital cataract through the NCAS is low and the system is likely to be insensitive to small but important changes in risk factors for this disorder. This limits its use for monitoring secular and other trends in ocular anomalies. Strategies to improve its future use are discussed, including enhancing the awareness and participation of ophthalmic professionals involved in managing children with anomalies.

Cataract↗

Regional variations in the incidence of upper urinary tract stones in England and Wales.

Data from the Hospital In-patient Enquiry were used to define the regional patterns of hospital discharge rates for upper urinary tract stones and renal colic in England and Wales. By combining the rates for stones and colic, and by distinguishing emergency from planned admissions, the biases produced by repeated admissions of the same patient and by regional variations in diagnosis and coding may be reduced. There are regional variations in incidence of upper urinary tract stones: Wales and the southern regions of England have a generally higher incidence than northern regions. These variations may be related to regional differences in diet or occupation; or they may partly depend on associations between stone incidence and atmospheric temperature, exposure to ultraviolet irradiation, and hardness of drinking water.

Colic↗

Urban and social origins of childhood bronchitis in England and Wales.

A survey of respiratory disease in over 10,000 children aged 6 to 10 years living in contrasting urban and rural areas of England and Wales showed pronounced social class gradient in the frequency of chronic cough, history of bronchitis, and also in disease of ears and nose. A consistent rise in the frequency of chest conditions with increasing local levels of air pollution was clearly seen only among the children of semi-skilled and unskilled workers. No such gradient was obvious for diseases of the ear and nose. These trends in chest disease in children paralleled similar trends in mortal and disabling bronchitis among adults in the same areas. The excess rate for bronchitis in children and adults found in South Wales could not be accounted for by local levels of air pollution.

Adult↗

Contribution of general practitioner hospitals in England and Wales.

A survey of a one-in-seven sample of general practitioner hospitals in England and Wales, performed to determine the contribution they make to overall hospital work load and the attitudes of the general practitioners working in them, showed that 3% of acute hospital beds in England and Wales were in general practitioner hospitals, which provided initial hospital care for up to 20% of the population. Altogether 16% of general practitioners and 22% of consultants were on the staffs, and they coped with more than 13% of all casualties, 6% of operations, and 4% of x-ray examinations. Nearly a million casualties were treated at no cost to the National Health Service. Twenty new district general hospitals would be needed to cope with the work load currently dealt with by general practitioner hospitals. The results of this survey indicate that these smaller hospitals deal efficiently and cheaply with their work load, and that morale is high. General practitioner hospitals could have an important part to play in providing certain types of care, but there are no financial incentives to enable general practitioners to realise this potential fully.

Attitude of Health Personnel↗

Communicable disease associated with milk and dairy products in England and Wales 1951-80.

In England and Wales between 1951 and 1980 233 reported outbreaks of communicable disease attributed to milk or dairy products affected nearly 10 000 people, of whom four died. Tuberculosis and brucellosis have been controlled, but milk-borne outbreaks of salmonellosis and campylobacter enteritis due to raw or defectively pasteurised milk are common and may be increasing in number. Universal heat treatment of milk is an effective preventive measure, and it is regrettable that the continued sale of untreated milk is to be permitted in England and Wales.

Animals↗

Seasonal variation and time trends in childhood asthma in England and Wales 1975-81.

In England and Wales hospital admissions for childhood asthma almost trebled over the period 1975-81. This may have reflected a true increase in the incidence of acute asthma, a swing from primary to hospital care, or both. The trend was not due to a change in diagnostic fashion. Monthly admissions showed a pronounced seasonal variation with fewest admissions in winter, rising in spring and early summer to peak in the autumn. A deep admission trough was present in August. The monthly admission profile was very similar throughout England and Wales, suggesting that major "trigger" factors were responsible.

Adolescent↗

Occupational mortality among women in England and Wales.

Occupational mortality in women who died in England and Wales from 1970 to 1972 was analysed. Many of the associations found were consistent with those that have been described for men, with high mortality ratios for cirrhosis in barmaids and publicans, for suicide in the medical and allied professions, and for respiratory disease in textile workers. Parity is a determinant of patterns of disease in working women, and the relative excess of cancer of the breast, ovary, and uterine body in professional and clerical workers probably reflected the high proportion of nulliparous women in these groups. Other associations may have reflected true occupational hazards; one observation requiring further attention was the high proportional mortality ratio for anaemia in textile and clothing workers. The description of the occupational mortality among women in England and Wales is hampered by the incomplete recording of information about women's occupations at registration of death. As women now constitute 40% of the workforce, often have their own specific occupations, and possibly also have their own diseases related to specific occupations it is time for the registrar's guidelines on the recording of women's occupation--last reviewed at the beginning of this century--to be revised.

Adolescent↗

Childhood respiratory infection and adult chronic bronchitis in England and Wales.

The high mortality from chronic bronchitis in England and Wales and the excess of urban over rural mortality are unexplained. On dividing England and Wales into 212 local authority areas a strong geographical relation was found between death rates from chronic bronchitis and emphysema in 1959-78 and infant mortality from bronchitis and pneumonia during 1921-5. It was concluded that this relation provided strong evidence of a direct casual link between acute lower respiratory infection in early childhood and chronic bronchitis in adult life. Regression analysis suggested that infection in early childhood had a greater influence than cigarette smoking in determining the geographical distribution of chronic bronchitis. National time trends reflected the influence of both factors. Chronic air pollution in adult life may be less important a cause of chronic bronchitis than previously supposed.

Adult↗

Retrospective study of 1000 deaths from injury in England and Wales.

One thousand consecutive deaths from injury in 11 coroner's districts in England and Wales were reviewed by four independent assessors, who studied necropsy reports to identify deaths in hospital that might have been preventable. Of 514 patients admitted to hospital alive, 102 deaths (20%) were judged by all four assessors to have been potentially preventable. When those cases in which three out of four assessors considered that the death was preventable were added the total rose to 170 (33%). Nearly two thirds of all non-central nervous system deaths were judged to have been preventable. The median age of the 170 patients whose deaths were preventable was 41, and the mean Injury Severity Score was 29. Further analysis suggested that the preventable deaths were principally the result of failure to stop bleeding and prevent hypoxia and the absence of, or delay in, surgical treatment. The results closely parallel those from similar studies from the United States and suggest that there are serious deficiencies in the services for managing severe injury in England and Wales. Debate is needed now on how to correct these deficiencies. In particular, the place of trauma centres must be considered.

Adolescent↗

Fertility and legal abortion in England and Wales: performance indicators for family planning services.

The relation between fertility rates and legal abortion rates was investigated in a sample of health authorities in England and Wales to see how these varied. Total period fertility rates and total period legal abortion rates were derived from the average number of live births or legal abortions that would be experienced per woman if women experienced the age specific rates of the year in question throughout their childbearing years. The sample of 30 health authorities was selected by taking the districts with the highest and lowest fertility rates in each English region and in Wales in 1986. Total period fertility rates varied from 1.37 in Riverside to 2.42 in Tower Hamlets, while abortion rates varied from 0.25 in East Yorkshire to 0.99 in Riverside. When the two rates were added to provide a potential fertility rate it became clear that some districts with similar potential fertility rates had very different underlying component rates. Such comparisons can be used for service monitoring, indicating the need for better abortion and family planning services in districts with high fertility rates and for better family planning services in those with high abortion rates.

Abortion, Legal↗

Deprivation: explaining differences in mortality between Scotland and England and Wales.

To detect reasons for the difference in mortality between Scotland and England and Wales a measure of deprivation was studied, comprising overcrowding, unemployment of men, low social class, and not having a car. Data for Scotland for 1980-2 showed this measure to be strongly associated with mortality, with gradients being particularly steep in young adults. Deprivation was much severe in Scotland than in England and Wales. These findings suggest that much excess mortality may be ascribed to more adverse conditions. Standardising the mortality ratios to take account of the relative affluence and deprivation of the two populations led to the differentials observed being radically adjusted, while standardising for social class had little effect. Deprivation measures based on areas overcome many of the limitations associated with social class analysis and also show much greater discrimination between populations. Measures of deprivation apparently provide a powerful basis for explanation of health differences. Such measures should therefore form part of the 1991 census output to facilitate their use on a consistent basis.

Automobiles↗

Computerisation of primary care in Wales.

OBJECTIVE: To obtain information about the computerisation of general practice in Wales, and to enable more effective planning of educational provision for doctors and other primary health care workers. DESIGN: Postal questionnaire sent to all general practices in Wales. SUBJECTS: 553 general practices, of which 401 (73% replied). RESULTS: The level of computerisation varied from 11 (85%) of practices in Powys Family Health Services Authority to 22 (40%) in Mid Glamorgan. Less than half of practices had a computer in only two authorities. The commonest uses of the computer were for patient registration (208 practices), repeat prescribing (180), call and recall of patients (165), and partial clinical records (122). The main suppliers were VAMP (78 practices), AAH Meditel (46), and AMC (23). 102 of 226 practices with a computer had a terminal on each doctor's desk. Just 33 practices had full patient notes on computer and 51 had modems for electronic communication. CONCLUSION: Mechanisms to encourage greater and more sophisticated use of computers and information technology need to be explored.

Ambulatory Care Information Systems↗

Results of first year (1989) of a national register of Down's syndrome in England and Wales.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the feasibility of a national register of Down's syndrome and its effectiveness in evaluating prenatal screening for the syndrome. DESIGN: Information for the register was obtained from all eligible cytogenetic laboratories on relevant cytogenetic diagnoses, including date and place of birth or termination, maternal age, indication for karyotyping, and type of diagnostic test used. SETTING: Cytogenetic laboratories in England and Wales. SUBJECTS: All fetuses with trisomy 21 diagnosed prenatally and live births with Down's syndrome diagnosed at birth. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Number of prenatal and postnatal diagnoses of Down's syndrome. National and maternal age specific prevalence of Down's syndrome. RESULTS: For 1989 there were 1060 registrations--323 prenatal diagnoses and 737 postnatal diagnoses--after exclusion of postnatally diagnosed miscarriages and stillbirths. The estimated national rate of affected births for mothers resident in England and Wales was 1.4/1000 live births, assuming no terminations of affected pregnancies and after correction for natural losses which would have occurred in the absence of termination. The corrected maternal age specific rates were close to those found in previous population based studies. The proportion of affected pregnancies diagnosed prenatally in mothers aged 35 to 39 was 44%, and for those aged 40 or more it was 71%. Abnormal findings on ultrasonography played an unexpectedly important part in initiating cytogenetic investigation (13% of the prenatal diagnoses). CONCLUSIONS: The findings establish the feasibility of a national Down's syndrome register and its use in evaluating prenatal screening services. Together with information held by the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys on congenital malformations, data from the register will permit studies of environmental variables affecting the prevalence of the syndrome.

Down Syndrome↗

Childhood deaths from intussusception in England and Wales, 1984-9.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the incidence of potentially avoidable factors contributing to death of children with intussusception. DESIGN: Review of children who died with intussusception in England and Wales between 1984 and 1989 from data of the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys, case notes, coroners' records, and necropsy reports. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Unambiguous objective criteria such as failure to diagnose intussusception within 24 hours of admission. RESULTS: 33 children died of acute intussusception in England and Wales between 1984 and 1989 compared with 67 in the previous six years. Their median age was 7 months (range 2 months to 12 years), and two thirds were boys. Half of the deaths occurred at home or soon after arrival at hospital but 15 patients had surgery. Potentially avoidable factors contributing to death were identified in 20 (61%) children, all but three of whom had ileocolic intussusception. These factors were excessive delay in diagnosis, inadequate intravenous fluid and antibiotic therapy, delay in recognising recurrent or residual intussusception after hydrostatic reduction, and surgical complications. Of the 13 patients in whom no avoidable factors were identified, there were nine of 11 children with isolated small bowel intussusception, who tended to have atypical presentations. CONCLUSION: Although the mortality from intussusception has declined, there remains ample opportunity for improved management.

Child↗

BCG immunisation in England and Wales: a survey of policy and practice in schoolchildren and neonates.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the policy and practice of district health authorities in England and Wales for BCG immunisation in schoolchildren and neonates. DESIGN: Self completion postal questionnaire survey. PARTICIPANTS: District immunisation coordinators. SETTING: 199 district health authorities in England and Wales. RESULTS: Questionnaires were received from 186 districts, a response rate of 94%. Considerable uniformity was observed in many aspects of BCG immunisation policy and practice but some important variations were found. 15 districts no longer carry out a routine schools programme. 148 districts offer BCG to selected groups of neonates and five to all neonates, but 31 districts do not offer BCG to this age group. The recommended action in response to different levels of tuberculin sensitivity in schoolchildren and neonates varied among districts. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the recommendations of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation some districts do not offer BCG immunisation to neonates at high risk of tuberculosis and there are important variations in other aspects of BCG policy.

BCG Vaccine↗

Patient characteristics and clinical caseload of short stay independent hospitals in England and Wales, 1992-3.

OBJECTIVE: To describe and quantify the patients and clinical activities of independent short stay hospitals. DESIGN: Retrospective survey of hospital records for sampled periods of one financial year and comparison with data from 1981 to 1986. SETTING: 217 independent hospitals in England and Wales, 1992-3. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Distributions of sex, age groups, and areas of residence of patients, clinical procedures, financial provision. RESULTS: Data were obtained from 201 (93%) hospitals. An estimated 429,172 inpatients (7% more than 1986) and 249,531 day cases (an increase of 154%) from 1986 were treated in the year. The number of overseas patients was half that in 1986. Clinical case mix remained similar to 1986. Abortion remained the commonest procedure (13% v 19% in 1986). Lens operations, heart operations, endoscopies, and non-surgical cases showed the largest increases from 1986. Proportionately more overseas patients had abortions (30% v 12% for England and Wales residents) and they received 41% of coronary artery bypass grafting. Three quarters of the patients were aged 15-64. The proportion of patients aged over 65 had changed little (19% v 17% in 1986). Estimated average bed occupancy was only 48%. Only one in 20 patients was treated under NHS contract; 90% of episodes were funded through private health insurance. CONCLUSIONS: The demand for treatment in private hospitals continues to increase despite additional investment in the NHS, but the overseas market is falling. Overall, the range of clinical activity has changed little.

Adolescent↗

Distribution of childhood leukaemias and non-Hodgkin's lymphomas near nuclear installations in England and Wales.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the relation between the risk of childhood leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and proximity of residence to nuclear installations in England and Wales. DESIGN: Observed and expected numbers of cases were calculated and analysed by standard methods based on ratios of observed to expected counts and by a new statistical test, the linear risk score test, based on ranks and designed to be sensitive to excess incidence in close proximity to a putative source of risk. SETTING: Electoral wards within 25 km of 23 nuclear installations and six control sites that had been investigated for suitability for generating stations but never used. SUBJECTS: Children below age 15 in England and Wales, 1966-87. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Registration of any leukaemia or non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. RESULTS: In none of the 25 km circles around the installations was the incidence ratio significantly greater than 1.0. The only significant results for the linear risk score test were for Sellafield (P = 0.00002) and Burghfield (P = 0.031). The circles for Aldermaston and Burghfield overlap; the incidence ratio was 1.10 in each. One of the control sites gave a significant linear risk score test result (P = 0.020). All the tests carried out were one sided with P values estimated by simulation. CONCLUSION: There is no evidence of a general increase of childhood leukaemia or non-Hodgkin's lymphoma around nuclear installations. Apart from Sellafield, the evidence for distance related risk is very weak.

Adolescent↗