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Review of the performance of methods to identify diabetes cases among vital statistics, administrative, and survey data.

PURPOSE: The ability to identify prevalent cases of diagnosed diabetes is crucial to monitoring preventative care practices and health outcomes among persons with diagnosed diabetes. METHODS: We conducted a comprehensive literature review to assess and summarize the validity of various strategies for identifying individuals with diagnosed diabetes and to examine the factors influencing the validity of these strategies. RESULTS: We found that studies using either administrative data or survey data were both adequately sensitive (i.e., identified the majority of cases of diagnosed diabetes) and highly specific (i.e., did not identify the individuals as having diabetes if they did not). In contrast, studies based on cause-of-death data from death certificates were not sensitive, failing to identify about 60% of decedents with diabetes and in most of these studies, researchers did not report specificity or positive predictive value. CONCLUSIONS: Surveillance is critical for tracking trends in diabetes and targeting diabetes prevention efforts. Several approaches can provide valuable data, although each has limitations. By understanding the limitations of the data, investigators will be able to estimate diabetes prevalence and improve surveillance of diabetes in the population.

Databases, Factual↗

Coronary heart disease mortality among men aged 35-44 years by prefecture in Japan in 1995-1999 compared with that among white men aged 35-44 by state in the United States in 1995-1998: vital statistics data in recent birth cohort.

The levels of risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) in men in the post World War II (WWII) birth cohort are almost similar between Japan and the USA, except for the considerably higher prevalence of cigarette smoking in Japan and the much higher prevalence of obesity in the USA. The present study evaluated the CHD mortality among men in the post WWII birth cohort by prefecture in Japan in 1995-1999 and then compared the data with those for white men in different states in the USA. There was a greater than 2-fold difference in CHD mortality among men aged 35-44 by prefecture in Japan: 5.3/100,000 in Kumamoto vs 12.6/100,000 in Tochigi. CHD mortality among men aged 35-44 in the top 3 prefectures in Japan is about half that of white men in the USA and is similar to that of white men in the lowest 3 states. The much lower CHD mortality in Japan does not appear to be caused by differences in the classification of causes of death and the results suggest that there may be strong and important protective factors that reduce the risk of CHD in Japan.

Adult↗

Annual summary of vital statistics--1990.

Infant mortality declined more rapidly between 1989 and 1990 than in any year since 1977; the provisional 1990 rate, 9.1 per 1000 live births, was the lowest ever recorded. Absence of final 1989 data prevents updating sex and race differences, but in 1988 data the rate for black persons was more than twice for white. Most of the decline in 1990 was in the neonatal period with a substantial drop in perinatal categories involving respiration. Surfactant therapy earned deserved kudos for much of the decrease, but more attention is needed to the more cost-effective potential of preventive measures. Births increased in number and rate; there were more women in the childbearing years and they had higher fertility rates. Marriages and divorces both increased slightly. Deaths increased but the death rate decreased; the estimated age-adjusted death rate was the lowest ever. Excess of births over deaths added more than 2 million persons to the US population. Worldwide, 22 countries with more than 2,500,000 population had 1989 infant mortality rates less than 10, led by Japan at 4.4; the US, at 9.7, was 21st on the list. An additional 7 countries had rates less than 15 per 1000 live births.

Adolescent↗

Annual summary of vital statistics--1991.

Between 1990 and 1991, provisional data show that the infant mortality rate decreased again, from 9.1 to 8.9, a decline of 2% in contrast to the 7% decline from 1989 to 1990. Birth, death, and marriage rates were also lower, but the divorce rate stayed at about the same level as in 1990. Natural increase in the population, excess of births over deaths, was less than 2 million, 4% less than the increase in 1990. Detailed analysis of changes and of the influence of factors like age and race requires final data; at the time of preparation of this report final birth and death data were available only through 1989. For a variety of reasons, including staff shortages and delays in receipt of state data by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), final data for 1990, which would usually have been available in late August 1992, are not expected before early 1993. Unlike recent years, the decline in the infant mortality rate was only in the neonatal component, which decreased 3.6%. Postneonatal mortality increased, for the first time in many years, by 1.6%, suggesting that the decline in the total is related more to therapeutic advances in neonatology than to improved prevention. Internationally, newly independent Latvia was added to the list of countries with rates less than 15, but Costa Rica was deleted. With the reunification of Germany the list shrank to 28 and, by default, the United States moved up from 21st to 20th. Some 12.5 million births, less than 9% of the world total, took place in countries with under-5 mortality rates of less than 20 per 1000. At the other end of the scale, 42% of the world's births occurred in countries with under-5 mortality rates of more than 140 per 1000. The median under-5 mortality rate for those countries in 1990 was 189 per 1000, meaning that almost 20% of the infants born alive in these countries died before their fifth birthday.

Birth Rate↗

Vital statistics of Panstronglus geniculatus (Latreille 1811) (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) under experimental conditions.

A statistical evaluation of the population dynamics of Panstrongylus geniculatus is based on a cohort experiment conducted under controlled laboratory conditions. Animals were fed on hen every 15 days. Egg incubation took 21 days; mean duration of 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th instar nymphs was 25, 30, 58, 62, and 67 days, respectively; mean nymphal development time was 39 weeks and adult longevity was 72 weeks. Females reproduced during 30 weeks, producing an average of 61.6 eggs for female on its lifetime; the average number of eggs/female/week was 2.1. Total number of eggs produced by the cohort was 1379. Average hatch for the cohort was 88.9%; it was not affected by age of the mother. Age specific survival and reproduction tables were constructed. The following population parameters were evaluated, generation time was 36.1 weeks; net reproduction rate was 89.4; intrinsic rate of natural increase was 0.125; instantaneous birth and death rates were 0.163 and 0.039 respectively; finite rate of increase 1.13; total reproductive value was 1196 and stable age distribution was 31.2% eggs, 64.7% nymphs and 4.1% adults. Finally the population characteristics of P. geniculatus lead to the conclusion that this species is a K strategist.

Analysis of Variance↗

Annual summary of vital statistics--1989.

US infant mortality continued to decline slowly and the provisional 1989 rate, 9.7 per 1000 live births, was the lowest ever recorded. Final 1988 data showed no change in cause of death distribution or in the wide discrepancy between white and black infant mortality. State rates varied from 6.8 in Vermont to 12.6 in Georgia. Worldwide, the US rate of 10.0 was bettered by 21 other countries, with Japan lowest at 4.8. Births increased in number and rate, because of a higher fertility rate and more women in the childbearing years. The birth rate to mothers 17 years of age and younger increased again. The proportion of women who had no or inadequate prenatal care was essentially unchanged. Deaths, crude death rate, and age-adjusted death rate decreased. The excess of births over deaths added almost 1.9 million persons to the US population, the highest rate of natural increase since 1971. The marriage rate was essentially unchanged, whereas the divorce rate decreased slightly, to the lowest level since 1973. With the exception of human immunodeficiency virus infection, homicide, and pulmonary malignancies, rates for most causes of death declined from 1988 to 1989. In comparison with 1940, most declines were substantial, led by pneumonia, down about 80%, and perinatal conditions, down about 75%. The only large-scale increases among major causes in the half century were in two diseases related to cigarette smoking: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, up eightfold, and respiratory cancer, up almost sixfold. Death rates from all other cancers, as a group, decreased by some 20% and from cardiovascular diseases by some 60%.

Adolescent↗

[Risk factors for neonatal and postneonatal mortality--a record-linkage study based on vital statistics].

This study examines the effects of biological, demographic and social variables, as reported on birth certificates, on neonatal and postneonatal mortalities. Examination of both birth and infant death certificates was performed for infants born in 1989 to residents of Tohoku, Tokai and Kyushu regions (n = 409,679), i.e. about a third of the total number of infants born in Japan. Record linkage rates in the neonatal and postneonatal periods were 99% and 92% respectively. The neonatal and postneonatal mortality rate of the cohort including unlinked deaths were 2.65/1,000 live-born infants and 2.02/1,000 neonatal survivors respectively. Both neonatal mortality rate and postneonatal mortality rate increased exponentially as birth weight decreased. Infant's sex and gestational period exerted significant influences on neonatal mortality after controlling for birth-weight by logistic regression. However, no overall effect on neonatal mortality was seen for maternal age, live-birth order, previous stillbirths and marital status, when birth-weight was taken into account. This suggests that the effect of social-demographic disadvantage on neonatal mortality is predominantly mediated through a downward shift in the birth-weight distribution. On the other hand, postneonatal mortality was influenced substantially by socio-demographic factors. Maternal age of less than 20 years and more than 35 years, one or more previous live-birth and unmarried marital status were all significantly related to increased risk of postneonatal death after controlling for birth-weight. Occupational type classification of the household, also, had a significant effect on postneonatal mortality, with agriculture, self-employed, or blue collar employee being related to increased risk.

Birth Weight↗

Estimation of adult T-cell leukemia incidence in Kyushu District from vital statistics Japan between 1983 and 1982: comparison with a nationwide survey.

To investigate the change in adult T-cell leukemia incidence between 1983 and 1992 and to evaluate the sensitivity of the nationwide adult T-cell leukemia survey, we estimated adult T-cell leukemia incidence in the Kyushu district, southern Japan, where adult T-cell leukemia is endemic. The incidence of adult T-cell leukemia was calculated from the difference between Kyushu and the rest of Japan in mortality from malignant lymphoid neoplasms, i.e., Kyushu's excess rate was assumed to be due to adult T-cell leukemia. In Kyushu, average annual adult T-cell leukemia cases aged > or = 20 years were estimated for men as 252 during the period 1983-87 and 341 during 1988-92, and for women as 201 and 246 respectively. The age-adjusted mortality rate tended to be higher in the latter period [6.29 per 100000 (95% confidence interval 5.59-7.00) vs. 5.25 (4.60-5.90) in men, and 3.33 (2.85-3.80) vs. 3.18 (2.71-3.66) in women]. By contrast, the registered number of adult T-cell leukemia cases nationwide during 1988-93 was only 35% (203/587) of the estimated number, and the number of registered versus estimated cases decreased with age, especially when cases were > 60 years old. In conclusion, the estimated adult T-cell leukemia incidence for 1983-92 increased in the latter half of the period. The estimation suggests that 65% of adult T-cell leukemia cases might be missed by a nationwide survey, and older cases were more likely than younger ones to be missed.

Adult↗

Annual summary of vital statistics--1993.

A new low in the infant mortality rate was reached again in 1993, at 828.8 deaths per 100,000 live births, a decline of 2% from 848.7 in 1992. Births, marriages, and divorces were all lower, both in number and rate. Deaths and the death rate, however, both increased and, more significantly, the age-adjusted death rate increased. A likely explanation is the occurrence of influenza epidemics in early and late 1993. The rate of natural increase declined 8%, to a level of 6.9 per 1000 population. Final figures on births for 1992 indicate that, for the first time in many years, birth rates to teen-agers declined more among black mothers than white. Increase in birth rate among older mothers continued at a somewhat slower rate than recently; older mothers tended to be better educated than the general population in their age groups. Total fertility rates were higher among mothers of Hispanic origin than among non-Hispanic blacks who, in turn, had higher rates than non-Hispanic whites. Among Hispanics the highest rates were in those of Mexican origin. Unlike recent years, birth rates to unmarried mothers did not increase in 1992. Prenatal care coverage improved, with more mothers seeking care early and fewer receiving late or no care. Electronic and fetal monitoring was performed on more than three-quarters of all births and ultrasound on more than half. Life expectancy decreased slightly, in contrast to recent years. Among major causes of death, increases were recorded in 1993 for chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases, pneumonia and influenza, and HIV infection, the latter having the largest percentage increase. Internationally, infant mortality rates in most other industrialized countries declined further in 1992. Comparatively, as in 1991, 21 other countries had infant mortality rates lower than the United States.

Cause of Death↗

Assessment of vital statistics and surveillance data for monitoring tetanus mortality, United States, 1979-1984.

Reported tetanus cases and tetanus deaths have declined substantially since widespread implementation of tetanus immunization. However, preventable morbidity and mortality continue to occur. During 1979-1984, 74-95 cases of tetanus were reported annually to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and 20-31 deaths were reported annually by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). To evaluate further the health impact of tetanus, the authors assessed the completeness of national tetanus mortality data. They reviewed tetanus case report forms received at CDC from the states and NCHS multiple-cause-of-death tapes for 1979-1984. CDC reports recorded 129 deaths and NCHS mortality tapes 197 deaths. Year of death, state, age, and sex were used to match CDC and NCHS deaths, identifying 78 deaths reported to both sources. Using the methodology of Chandra Sekar and Deming, the authors estimated the actual number of tetanus deaths for 1979-1984 to be 326 (95% confidence interval 291-361). Based on this estimate, the completeness of reporting to CDC was 40%, to NCHS 60%, and to the combined systems 76%. To evaluate the reasons for underreporting, the authors contacted 14 states that had reported greater than or equal to 10 cases of tetanus to CDC during 1979-1984 to obtain death certificates for all tetanus deaths and additional information on all tetanus cases. Thirteen states submitted 108 death certificates for review. Coding and other systematic errors did not explain the low reporting efficiency. Failure to list tetanus as a cause of death on the death certificate was the primary reason for nonreporting of tetanus deaths to NCHS. These results suggest that NCHS tetanus mortality data may not be as complete as previously assumed and that tetanus mortality, and probably morbidity, are higher than previous reports have indicated.

Aged↗

Annual summary of vital statistics: 2004.

The crude birth rate in 2004 was 14.0 births per 1000 population, the second lowest ever reported for the United States. The number of births and the fertility rate (66.3) increased slightly (by <1%) from 2003 to 2004. Fertility rates were highest for Hispanic women (97.7), followed by Asian or Pacific Islander (67.2), non-Hispanic black (66.7), Native American (58.9), and non-Hispanic white (58.5) women. The birth rate for teen mothers continued to fall, dropping 1% from 2003 to 2004 to 41.2 births per 1000 women aged 15 to 19 years, which is another record low. The teen birth rate has fallen 33% since 1991; declines were more rapid for younger teens aged 15 to 17 (43%) than for older teens aged 18 to 19 (26%). The proportion of all births to unmarried women is now slightly higher than one third. Smoking during pregnancy declined slightly from 2003 to 2004. In 2004, 29.1% of births were delivered by cesarean delivery, up 6% since 2003 and 41% since 1996 (20.7%). The primary cesarean delivery rate has risen 41% since 1996, whereas the rate of vaginal birth after a previous cesarean delivery has fallen 67%. The use of timely prenatal care was 84.0% in both 2003 and 2004. The percentage of preterm births rose to 12.5% in 2004 from 10.6% in 1990 and 9.4% in 1981. The percentage of low birth weight births also increased to 8.1% in 2004, up from 6.7% in 1984. Twin birth rate and triplet/+ birth rates increased by 1% and <1%, respectively, from 2002 to 2003. Multiple births accounted for 3.3% of all births in 2003. The infant mortality rate was 7.0 per 1000 live births in 2002 compared with 6.8 in 2001. The ratio of the infant mortality rate among non-Hispanic black infants to that for non-Hispanic white infants was 2.4 in 2002, the same as in 2001. The United States continues to rank poorly in international comparisons of infant mortality. Expectation of life at birth reached a record high of 77.6 years for all gender and race groups combined. Death rates in the United States continue to decline, with death rates decreasing for 8 of the 15 leading causes. Death rates for children < or =19 years of age declined for 7 of the 10 leading causes in 2003. The death rates did not increase for any cause, and rates for heart disease, influenza, and pneumonia and septicemia did not change significantly for children as a group. A large proportion of childhood deaths, however, continue to occur as a result of preventable injuries.

Birth Rate↗

Annual summary of vital statistics--2003.

The crude birth rate rose slightly in 2003 to 14.1 births per 1000 population, from 13.9 in 2002. The 2002 rate was the lowest ever reported for the United States. The total number of births and the fertility rate (66.1) also increased. The birth rate for teenaged mothers dropped 3% to another record low in 2003, to 41.7 per 1000 females aged 15 to 19 years. The teenage birth rate has fallen by one third since 1991. The birth rate declined for women 20 to 24 years old but rose for women aged 25 to 44 years. The number, rate, and proportion of births to unmarried women all increased in 2003. Smoking during pregnancy declined to 11%, down from 19.5% in 1989. Prenatal care utilization improved slightly for 2003; 84.1% of women began care in the first trimester of pregnancy. The cesarean delivery rate jumped 6% to 27.6% for another US high. The primary cesarean rate rose 6%, and the rate of vaginal birth after a previous cesarean delivery plummeted 16% from 2002 to 2003. The percent of infants delivered preterm continued to rise (12.3% in 2003). The preterm birth rate is up 16% since 1990. The percentage of children born at low birth weight rose slightly in 2003 to the highest level reported since 1970 (7.9%). The twinning rate increased, but the rate for triplet/+ births declined slightly between 2001 and 2002. Multiple births accounted for 3.3% of all births in 2002. The infant mortality rate rose to 7.0/1000 live births in 2002 from 6.8 in 2001, marking the first increase in this rate in >4 decades. Increases were distributed fairly widely across age, racial/ethnic groups, and geographic areas. The rise in infant mortality was attributed to increases in <750-g births in both singleton and multiple deliveries. Although the downward trend in infant mortality rates in many developed nations may have stabilized, the United States still ranked 27th among these nations in 2001. Expectation of life at birth reached a record high of 77.3 years for all gender and race groups combined in 2002. Death rates in the United States continue to decline. Between 2001 and 2002, death rates declined for the 3 leading causes of death: diseases of heart, malignant neoplasms, and cerebrovascular diseases. Death rates for children 1 to 19 years old decreased by 8% for suicide; the death rate for chronic lower respiratory diseases increased by 33% in 2002. Rates for unintentional injuries and homicide did not change significantly for children aged 1 to 19 years. A large proportion of childhood deaths continues to occur as a result of preventable injuries.

Adolescent↗

Annual summary of vital statistics: 2000.

The birth rate in 2000 (preliminary data) was 14.8 births per 1000 population, an increase of 2% from 1999 (14.5). The fertility rate, births per 1000 women aged 15 to 44 years, increased 3% to 67.6 in 2000, compared with 65.9 in 1999. The 2000 increases in births and the fertility rate were the third consecutive yearly increases, the largest in many years, halting the steady decline in the number of births and fertility rates in the 1990s. Fertility rates for total white, non-Hispanic white, black, and Native American women each increased about 2% in 2000. The fertility rate for black women, which declined 19% from 1990 to 1996, has changed little since 1996. The rate for Hispanic women rose 4% in 2000 to reach the highest level since 1993. Birth rates for women 30 years or older continued to increase. The proportion of births to unmarried women remained about the same at one third, but the number of births rose 3%. The birth rate for teen mothers declined again for the ninth consecutive year. The use of timely prenatal care (83.2%) remained unchanged in 2000, and was essentially unchanged for non-Hispanic white (88.5%), black (74.2%), and Hispanic (74.4%) mothers. The number and rate of multiple births continued their dramatic rise, but all of the increase was confined to twins; for the first time in more than a decade, the number of triplet and higher-order multiple births declined (4%) between 1998 and 1999 (multiple birth information is not available in preliminary 2000 data). The overall increases in multiple births account, in part, for the lack of improvement in the percentage of low birth weight (LBW) births. LBW remained at 7.6% in 2000. The infant mortality rate (IMR) dropped to 6.9 per 1000 live births (preliminary data) in 2000 (the rate was 7.1 in 1999). The ratio of the IMR among black infants to that for white infants was 2.5 in 2000, the same as in 1999. Racial differences in infant mortality remain a major public health concern. The role of low birth weight in infant mortality remains a major issue. Among all of the states, Utah and Maine had the lowest IMRs. State-by-state differences in IMR reflect racial composition, the percentage LBW, and birth weight-specific neonatal mortality rates for each state. The United States continues to rank poorly in international comparisons of infant mortality. Expectation of life at birth reached a record high of 76.9 years for all gender and race groups combined. Death rates in the United States continue to decline. The age-adjusted death rate for suicide declined 4% between 1999 and 2000; homicide declined 7%. Death rates for children 19 years of age or less declined for 3 of the 5 leading causes in 2000; cancer and suicide levels did not change for children as a group. A large proportion of childhood deaths, however, continue to occur as a result of preventable injuries.

Birth Rate↗

Annual summary of vital statistics-1997.

Many positive trends in the health of Americans continued into 1997. In 1997, the preliminary birth rate declined slightly to 14.6 births per 1000 population, and the fertility rate, births per 1000 women 15 to 44 years of age, was unchanged from the previous year (65.3). These indicators suggest that the downward trend in births observed since the early 1990s may have abated. Fertility rates for white, black, and Native American women were essentially unchanged between 1996 and 1997. Fertility among Hispanic women declined 2% in 1997 to 103.1, the lowest level reported since national data for this group have been available. For the sixth consecutive year, birth rates dropped for teens. Birth rates for women 30 years or older continued to increase. The proportion of births to unmarried women (32.4%) was unchanged in 1997. The trend toward earlier utilization of prenatal care continued for 1997; 82.5% of women began prenatal care in the first trimester. There was no change in the percentage with late (third trimester) or no care in 1997. The cesarean delivery rate rose slightly to 20.8% in 1997, a reversal of the downward trend observed since 1989. The percentage of low birth weight (LBW) infants rose again in 1997 to 7.5%. The percentage of very low birth weight was up only slightly to 1.41%. Among births to white mothers, LBW increased for the fifth consecutive year, to 6.5%, whereas the rate for black mothers remained unchanged at 13%. Much, but not all, of the rise in LBW for white mothers during the 1990s can be attributed to an increase in multiple births. In 1996, the multiple birth rate rose again by 5%, and the higher-order multiple birth rate climbed by 20%. Infant mortality reached an all time low level of 7.1 deaths per 1000 births, based on preliminary 1997 data. Both neonatal and postneonatal mortality rates declined. In 1996, 64% of all infant deaths occurred to the 7.4% of infants born at LBW. Infant mortality rates continue to be more than two times greater for black than for white infants. Among all the states in 1996, Maine, Massachusetts, and New Hampshire had the lowest infant mortality rates. Despite declines in infant mortality, the United States continues to rank poorly in international comparisons of infant mortality. Expectation of life at birth reached a new high in 1997 of 76.5 years for all gender and race groups combined. Age-adjusted death rates declined in 1997 for diseases of the heart, accidents and adverse affects (unintentional injuries), homicide, suicide, malignant neoplasms, cerebrovascular disease, chronic liver disease and cirrhosis, and diabetes. In 1997, mortality due to HIV infection declined by 47%. Death rates for children from all major causes declined again in 1997. Motor vehicle traffic injuries and firearm injuries were the two major causes of traumatic death. A large proportion of childhood deaths continue to occur as a result of preventable injuries.

Adolescent↗

Annual summary of vital statistics--2001.

The number of births, the crude birth rate (14.5 in 2001), and the fertility rate (67.2 in 2001) all declined slightly (by 1% or less) from 2000 to 2001. Fertility rates were highest for Hispanic women (107.4), followed by Native American (70.7), Asian or Pacific Islander (69.4), black (69.3), and non-Hispanic white women (58.0). During the early to mid 1990s, fertility declined for non-Hispanic white, black, and American Indian women. Rates for these population groups have changed relatively little since 1995; however, fertility has increased for Asian or Pacific Islander and Hispanic women. The birth rate for teen mothers continued to fall, dropping 5% from 2000 to 2001 to 45.9 births per 1000 females aged 15 to 19 years, another record low. The teen birth rate has fallen 26% since 1991; declines were more rapid (35%) for younger teens aged 15 to 17 years than for older teens aged 18 to 19 years (20%). The proportion of all births to unmarried women remained about the same at one-third. Smoking during pregnancy continued to decline; smoking rates were highest among teen mothers. The use of timely prenatal care increased slightly to 83.4% in 2001. From 1990 to 2001, the use of timely prenatal care increased by 6% (to 88.5%) for non-Hispanic white women, by 23% (to 74.5%) for black women, and by 26% (to 75.7%) for Hispanic women. The number and rate of twin births continued to rise, but the triplet/+ birth rate declined for the second year in a row. For the first year in almost a decade, the preterm birth rate declined (to 11.6%); however, the low birth weight rate was unchanged at 7.6%. The total cesarean delivery rate jumped 7% from 2000 to 2001 to 24.4% of all births, the highest level reported since these data became available on birth certificates (1989). The primary cesarean rate rose 5%, whereas the rate of vaginal birth after a previous cesarean delivery tumbled 20%. In 2001, the provisional infant mortality rate was 6.9 per 1000 live births, the same as in 2000. Racial differences in infant mortality remain a major public health concern, with the rate for infants of black mothers 2.5 times those for infants of non-Hispanic white or Hispanic mothers. In 2000, 66% of all infant deaths occurred among the 7.6% of infants born low birth weight. Among all states, Maine and Massachusetts had the lowest infant mortality rates. The United States continues to rank poorly in international comparisons of infant mortality. The provisional death rate in 2001 was 8.7 deaths per 1000 population, the same as the 2000 final rate. In 2000, unintentional injuries and homicide remained the leading and second-leading causes of death for children 1 to 19 years of age, although the death rate for homicide decreased by 10% from 1999 to 2000. Among unintentional injuries to children, two-thirds were motor vehicle-related; among homicides, two-thirds were firearm-related.

Adolescent↗

Annual summary of vital statistics: trends in the health of Americans during the 20th century.

The overall improvement in the health of Americans over the 20th century is best exemplified by dramatic changes in 2 trends: 1) the age-adjusted death rate declined by about 74%, while 2) life expectancy increased 56%. Leading causes of death shifted from infectious to chronic diseases. In 1900, infectious respiratory diseases accounted for nearly a quarter of all deaths. In 1998, the 10 leading causes of death in the United States were, respectively, heart disease and cancer followed by stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, accidents (unintentional injuries), pneumonia and influenza, diabetes, suicide, kidney diseases, and chronic liver disease and cirrhosis. Together these leading causes accounted for 84% of all deaths. The size and composition of the American population is fundamentally affected by the fertility rate and the number of births. From the beginning of the century there was a steady decline in the fertility rate to a low point in 1936. The postwar baby boom peaked in 1957, when 123 of every 1000 women aged 15 to 44 years gave birth. Thereafter, fertility rates began a steady decline. Trends in the number of births parallel the trends in the fertility rate. Beginning in 1936 and continuing to 1956, there was precipitous decline in maternal mortality from 582 deaths per 100 000 live births in 1935 to 40 in 1956. Since 1950 the maternal mortality ratio dropped by 90% to 7.1 in 1998. The infant mortality rate has shown an exponential decline during the 20th century. In 1915, approximately 100 white infants per 1000 live births died in the first year of life; the rate for black infants was almost twice as high. In 1998, the infant mortality rate was 7.2 overall, 6.0 for white infants, and 14.3 for black infants. For children older than 1 year of age, the overall decline in mortality during the 20th century has been spectacular. In 1900, >3 in 100 children died between their first and 20th birthday; today, <2 in 1000 die. At the beginning of the 20th century, the leading causes of child mortality were infectious diseases, including diarrheal diseases, diphtheria, measles, pneumonia and influenza, scarlet fever, tuberculosis, typhoid and paratyphoid fevers, and whooping cough. Between 1900 and 1998, the percentage of child deaths attributable to infectious diseases declined from 61.6% to 2%. Accidents accounted for 6.3% of child deaths in 1900, but 43.9% in 1998. Between 1900 and 1998, the death rate from accidents, now usually called unintentional injuries, declined two-thirds, from 47. 5 to 15.9 deaths per 100 000. The child dependency ratio far exceeded the elderly dependency ratio during most of the 20th century, particularly during the first 70 years. The elderly ratio has gained incrementally since then and the large increase expected beginning in 2010 indicates that the difference in the 2 ratios will become considerably less by 2030. The challenge for the 21st century is how to balance the needs of children with the growing demands for a large aging population of elderly persons.

Adolescent↗