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Possible future trends of radiation exposure by carbon 14.

The possible future trends of the radiation exposure by carbon 14 have been assessed. The individual lifetime doses and the European and global dose commitments were calculated by a specific activity model. A non-linear compartment model was developed so simulate the global cycling of carbon dioxide from the combustion of fossil fuels and of radiocarbon released from nuclear energy facilities until the year 2200. The energy scenarios considered are: (I) logistic growth functions for energy supply with fossil fuels; (II) a high, low and moderate estimate for the extension of nuclear energy (light water reactors). In addition, the influence of the retention of C-14 in the fuel reprocessing plant effluents was tested. For most of the scenarios considered the increase of the specific activity by C-14 releases is more than compensated by the CO2 releases from fossil fuels. Up to 2200 individual lifetime dose commitments for 70 years were found between 0.85 and 0.45 mSv (pre-industrial value: 0.73 mSv). The anthropogenic contributions to the global collective dose commitments until the year 2100 were estimated (for the moderate scenario without retention) at 1.27 X 10(6) man-Sv (11%) from nuclear weapon tests, 3.5 X 10(5) man-Sv (3%) from nuclear power plants, and 6.5 X 10(5) man-Sv (5.6%) from fuel reprocessing facilities.

Carbon Radioisotopes↗

Components of total irradiation dose in Switzerland and their ranges.

The present knowledge about dose components in Switzerland and their ranges is reviewed. Considerable ranges are found for doses induced by radon decay-products and by cosmic and terrestrial radiation. Yearly doses from radon decay-products show average values between about 1 and 20 mSv in different communities and individual values up to about 150 mSv. The reliability of these average values is, however, limited, because radon concentrations have been measured up to now only in a small number of houses, and because corrections of the raw data are necessary, increasing the uncertainty of the results. Doses from terrestrial and cosmic radiation show locally variable values between about 0.5 and 1.5 mSv per year. These doses are mainly derived from outdoor measurements. Therefore, these results also are only of limited use in possible epidemiological applications.

Background Radiation↗

Biophysical aspects of Am-241 and Pu-241 in the environment.

Most of plutonium released by nuclear explosions is Pu-241 which decays to Am-241. We have studied the deposition of Pu-241 and Am-241 in lichens collected since 1958 in the central part of Sweden (62.3 degrees N, 12. 4 degrees E). Comparative studies with Pu-isotopes, Pu-239 + 240 and Pu-238 were also performed. In 1972 the total accumulated deposition of Pu-241 was 8 mCi/km2 of Pu-239 + 240 1 mCi/km2 and of Am-241 0.2 mCi/km2. About 80% of the Am-241 activity has been formed in situ from decay of Pu-241. The biological mean-residence time for all Pu-isotopes were about 6 years and for Am-241 4 years. The spatial distribution of Am-241 in the lichen carpet is quite different from that of Pu-241. The activity concentrations of Am-241 and Pu-241 have been studied in reindeer liver and bone. The average concentrations found were in liver 0.6 and 40 pCi/kg, in bone 0.2 and 6 pCi per kg for Am-241 and Pu-241 respectively. The activity content of Am-241 and Pu-241 in the Lapps due to their reindeer diet was estimated to be in liver 1.0 E-4 and 1.0 E-2 pCi/kg, in bone (3-9) E-5 and 1.0 E-2 pCi/kg for Am-241 and Pu-241 respectively. The estimated values for the fractions of ingested activity retained were in liver 7 E-6 and 14 E-6, in bone 20 E-6 for Am-241 and Pu-241 respectively. The fraction of ingested activity of Pu retained in reindeer liver is about 2-3 times higher than that of Am.

Americium↗

Zirconium. An abnormal trace element in biology.

The action of Zirconium (Zr) on biological systems presents an enigma. It is ubiquitous, being present in nature in amounts higher than most trace elements. It is taken up by plants from soil and water and accumulated in certain tissues. The entry into animal systems in vivo is related to the mode of exposure and the concentration in the surrounding environment. Retention is initially in soft tissues and then slowly in the bone. The metal is able to cross the blood brain-barrier and is deposited in the brain and the placental barrier to enter milk. The daily human uptake has been known to be as high as 125 mg. The level of toxicity has been found to be moderately low, both in histological and cytological studies. The toxic effects induced by very high concentrations are nonspecific in nature. Despite the presence and retention in relatively high quantities in biological systems, Zr has not yet been associated with any specific metabolic function. Very little information is available about its interaction with the compounds of the genetical systems, such as nucleic acids. Apparently, the metal is neither an essential nor toxic element in the conventional sense. However, the increasing exposure to this element through its increasing use in new materials and following radioactive fallout, has increased the importance of the study of its effects on living organisms. The tetravalent nature of the ionic state and the high stability of the compounds formed are important factors that need to be considered, as also the accumulation of this element in the brain, reminiscent of the relationship between Al3+ and Alzheimer's disease.

Animals↗

Investigation of the possible effect of the Chernobyl accident on Irish mortality rates.

RADIOACTIVE fallout from the Chernobyl accident reached Ireland in May 1986 and caused serious concern with regard to its possible effects on health. Reports of a large scale American study claim an almost immediate effect of Chernobyl fallout in terms of increased mortality rates. A study of Irish mortality rates reported a substantial increase in numbers of deaths during the three months immediately post-Chernobyl. The present study investigates whether there is a statistically significant basis for the reported increase in mortality in Ireland. No discernible evidence was found for increased mortality rates in Ireland during 1986, following the Chernobyl accident. The initial report of increased mortality rates was based on provisional mortality registration statistics and not on actual day by day data.

Accidents↗

Monte-Carlo prediction of changes in areas of west Cumbria requiring restrictions on sheep following the Chernobyl accident.

Following the 1986 Chernobyl accident radiocaesium levels in sheep meat in some upland areas of the United Kingdom were above the national intervention limit. West Cumbria was one of these areas and restrictions are currently still in place. In addition to deposition from the Chernobyl accident, Cumbria has been subject to radiocaesium deposition from atmospheric nuclear weapons tests, the 1957 Windscale accident and routine releases from the Sellafield nuclear reprocessing plant. A Monte-Carlo approach has been used to try to predict areas in west Cumbria where radiocaesium activity concentrations in lamb meat would require the imposition of restrictions at different times after the Chernobyl accident. The approach models the transfer of radiocaesium from soil to vegetation, based upon soil organic matter, and from vegetation to lamb meat. Spatial inputs are soil organic matter and total post-Chernobyl (137)Cs and (134)Cs deposition; a ratio of Chernobyl (137)Cs to (134)Cs deposition has been used to differentiate Chernobyl and pre-Chernobyl (137)Cs deposition. Comparisons of predicted radiocaesium transfer from soil-vegetation and the spatial variation in lamb (137)Cs activity concentrations are good and predicted restricted areas with time after Chernobyl compare well to the restricted areas set by UK government. We predict that restrictions may be required until 2024 and that in some areas the contribution of pre-Chernobyl (137)Cs to predicted lamb radiocaesium activity concentrations is significant, such that restrictions may only have been required until 1994 as a consequence of Chernobyl radiocaesium deposition alone. This work represents a novel implementation of a spatial radioecological model using a Monte-Carlo approach.

Animal Feed↗

Solubility of airborne radioactive fuel particles from the Chernobyl reactor and implication to dose.

Airborne particles of nuclear fuel from the Chernobyl reactor that had been collected on air filters and stored, were characterised using in vitro dissolution tests to assess effective doses after their inhalation. As solvent, the Gamble biological fluid was used to simulate lung fluid. The solubility of the measured radionuclides decreased in the order (137)Cs>(90)Sr>>(241)Am>or=(239+240)Pu in the simulated lung fluid. The dissolution rate constant of e.g. (239+249)Pu ranged from 0.72 to 5.4 x 10(-6) g x cm(-2) d(-1) and decreased (for all nuclides) with increasing particle size as predicted from theoretical considerations. Considering the inhalation dose, decreasing dose with size and increasing doses with lower solubility may partly counterbalance each other for (137)Cs and (90)Sr. On the other hand, for (239)Pu and (241)Am larger particles and associated lower solubility both change the resulting dose in the same direction towards lower values. The comparison of the experimentally determined dose coefficients with ICRP values indicates that nuclear fuel particles closely resemble type M material characteristics for (137)Cs and (90)Sr and type S material characteristics for (239)Pu and (241)Am.

Aerosols↗

A radioecological model for thyroid dose reconstruction of the Belarus population following the Chernobyl accident.

A radioecological model was developed to estimate thyroid exposures of the Belarus population following the Chernobyl accident. The input of the model includes an extensive data set of the (137)Cs activity per unit area deposited during the Chernobyl accident, the rainfall data for different regions of Belarus, the (131)I/(137)Cs ratio in the deposit and the start of the grazing period in Belarus in April/May 1986. The output of the model is the age-dependent thyroid exposure due to the intake of (131)I with fresh milk. Age-dependent average thyroid doses were assessed for selected regions of Belarus. The maximum thyroid doses were estimated for the inhabitants of Gomel oblast where the highest deposition was observed among the regions considered here. The lowest doses were estimated for Vitebsk oblast with the lowest level of depositions. The mean exposures for the oblasts of Grodno, Minsk, Mogilev and Brest were very similar. The results were compared with estimations of thyroid exposure that were based on (131)I measurements in human thyroids, and they are in good agreement. The model may be used for the assessment of thyroid doses in Belarus for areas where no (131)I measurements are available.

Adult↗

Current development of the human and environmental contamination in the Bryansk-Gomel Spot after the Chernobyl accident.

Up to 1991, it was assumed that after the Chernobyl accident in 1986 the time development of radioactive contamination with regard to environment, foodstuff, and man would decrease due to migration processes in the soil, radioactive decay, and protective measures. This assumption was confirmed by all measurements in the first few years after the accident. Since 1991, however, a change in this development has been observed, as many measurements show stagnation or in some cases even an increase of foodstuff and human contamination. If normalised to an average local ground contamination, only a few groups of foodstuffs (e.g., potatoes) show a slight decrease in radioactivity. In this paper, the time development of radioactive contamination in the Bryansk-Gomel Spot on the basis of measurements since 1991 is presented. The consequences for long-term dose assessment are discussed.

Food Contamination, Radioactive↗

Analysis of thyroid cancer data from the Ukraine after 'Chernobyl' using a two-mutation carcinogenesis model.

The thyroid cancer data of children in the northern regions of the Ukraine after the reactor accident at Chernobyl were combined with thyroid dose measurements in the same regions and analysed using a two-mutation carcinogenesis model. The best fit was obtained for radiation acting as an initiating agent, i.e. on the first mutation of the model. The observed relatively high increase of thyroid cancer incidence after 1990 in children exposed to radiation released after the reactor accident could be ascribed to the high thyroid doses and the relatively low background thyroid cancer incidence in children. The maximum annual incidence is predicted to occur fairly soon after the reactor accident, i.e. about 10 years. For adults, the predicted relative increase of annual thyroid cancers is much lower than for children younger than 20 years. The modelling results are used to derive risk estimates for radiation-induced thyroid cancer. These risk estimates are dependent on age at exposure, follow-up time and the background thyroid cancer incidence. The calculated excess absolute risk for a population of all ages is about one-third of that currently used by ICRP, but for children the calculated absolute risks are about a factor of 3 higher than derived in other epidemiological studies. The model results indicate that the excess absolute radiation risk per unit dose for children is about the same as or a little lower than that for adults.

Adolescent↗

Perinatal mortality in Germany following the Chernobyl accident.

Perinatal mortality in Germany was investigated with respect to a possible relationship to the nuclear accident in Chernobyl on April 26, 1986. Using annual data of perinatal mortality, a trend analysis based on an appropriately chosen statistical model was performed which showed a significant increase in 1987. In addition, we calculated the cesium concentration in women's bodies using data of the cesium concentration in milk. We found two peaks of cesium concentration that were associated with the observed two peaks of monthly perinatal mortality data with a delay of 7 months.

Cesium Radioisotopes↗

Leukaemia and thyroid cancer in emergency workers of the Chernobyl accident: estimation of radiation risks (1986-1995).

This work focuses on the direct epidemiological assessment of the risks of radiation-induced leukaemia and thyroid cancer in emergency workers (EW) after the Chernobyl accident. The Russian National Medical Dosimetric Registry (RNMDR) contains data for 168,000 EW as of January 1, 1996. The analysis relates to 48 leukaemias and 47 thyroid cancers, diagnosed and verified. Radiation risks are estimated by comparing the EW data with national data for a male population of the same age distribution. For leukaemia, an excess relative risk per Gy (ERR/Gy) of 4.30 (95% CI: 0.83, 7.75) is obtained, while the excess absolute risk per 10(4) person-years (PY) Gy (EAR/10(4)PY Gy) is found to be 1.31 (95% CI: 0.23, 2.39); for thyroid cancer an ERR/Gy of 5.31 (95% CI: 0.04, 10.58) is obtained, and an EAR/10(4)PY Gy of 1.15 (95% CI: 0.08, 2.22).

Adult↗

137Cs mobility in soils and its long-term effect on the external radiation exposure.

To predict the external gamma-dose rate of Chernobyl-derived 131Cs for a period of about 100 years after its deposition, the vertical distribution of radiocesium in several meadow soils in the Chernobyl area and in Germany was determined, and the corresponding residence half-times of his radionuclide in the various soil layers were evaluated using a compartment model. The resulting residence half-times were subsequently used to calculate the vertical distribution of 137Cs in the soil as a function of time and finally to predict the external gamma-dose rates in air for these sites at various times. A regression analysis of the data obtained showed that the time dependence of the relative gamma-dose rate in air D(t) at the Chernobyl sites can be described by an exponential equation D(t) = a + b x exp (-t/c), where t is the time after deposition. For the ten German sites the best fit was obtained using the two-exponential equation D(t) = a x exp(-t/b) + c x exp(-t/d). The gamma-dose rate of 137Cs at the Chernobyl sites decreases significantly more slowly with time than at the German sites. This means that after e.g. 30 years the mean relative gamma-dose rate at the German sites will have decreased from 100% (corresponding to an infinite plane source on a smooth surface) to 9% (95% confidence interval 8%-10%), while at the sites in the Chernobyl area it will have decreased only to 21% (20%-23%). This difference is the result of the longer residence half-times of 137Cs in the soils at the Chernobyl sites. All results are compared with estimates from earlier studies.

Cesium Radioisotopes↗

Thyroid dose and thyroid cancer incidence after the Chernobyl accident: assessments for the Zhytomyr region (Ukraine).

In the Zhytomyr region, about 52,000 measurements of the 131I activity in thyroids were performed. On the basis of these measurements, individual doses have been assessed for the people monitored and age-dependent average doses have been estimated for those settlements with more than 11 direct measurements. In order to estimate the pattern of thyroid exposure in the Zhytomyr region, these doses have been interpolated or extrapolated to population groups who were not monitored during May-June 1986. For this purpose, a model has been developed based on a correlation between thyroid dose estimates with the 137Cs deposition and the co-ordinates of the settlements relative to Chernobyl. Collective doses of people who were born in the years 1968 to 1986 were calculated. The radiation-induced thyroid cancer incidence in the period 1991 to 1995 was assessed by subtracting the spontaneous incidence from the observed incidence. The result is considerably lower than that observed in longer periods after external exposures. Possible reasons for this difference are discussed.

Adolescent↗

Measurement of resuspended aerosol in the Chernobyl area. Part II. Size distribution of radioactive particles.

Size distribution measurements of particulate radionuclides were performed at two sites in the Chernobyl 30-km exclusion zone using several cascade impactors. The results obtained in the period September 1986 till June 1993 were discussed with regard to the general assumption of a log-normal activity size distribution in inhalation dose assessment. At Zapolie (a site 14 km from the Chernobyl reactor) a bimodal distribution was observed in 91% of all measured distributions. In most cases the medians were about 4 microns and in the range 20-30 microns. According to soil granulometric data this finding was explained by superimposing two processes: local resuspension and advective transport of radioactive aerosol from highly contaminated territories. The mean air concentration showed an increasing proportion of inhalable particles over the years since the accident. In 1993 the inhalable fraction was about 48% of the total concentration. At Pripyat, a site situated within a highly contaminated area, unimodal types of size distributions were predominant with the median diameters in the range 5-10 microns for 137Cs. For the three nuclides 137Cs, 144Ce and 106Ru, very similar types of distribution were observed. Apparently, the radioactive aerosol was of fuel origin. During a forest fire at a distance of 17 km, the majority of the radioactivity was associated with submicrometer particles with median diameters in the range 0.28-0.50 micron.

Aerosols↗