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PubMed2001

Impact of comparison group on cohort dose response regression: an example using risk estimation in atomic-bomb survivors.

Cohort-based dose-response analyses can be biased if based on a comparison group that is not comparable to the exposed persons with respect to uncontrolled factors related to disease incidence or mortality. When data exist over a range of doses including the very low dose region, internal regression standardized analyses based on the regression intercept derived from the exposed subcohort alone can provide risk estimates that are not subject to such comparison-group bias. In the Life Span Study cohort of atomic-bomb survivors, persons with dose estimates of zero comprise a broader geographic distribution than that of persons with non-zero dose estimates. Because there is geographic variation in mortality rates, the zero-dose persons might bias background rate estimates thereby affecting inference about radiation risk. This is illustrated using mortality due to all causes. Restricting the comparison group to certain geographically defined subcohorts resulted in as much as a 6% increase or 8% decrease in the risk estimate. This bias can be corrected using an SMR-type estimate in the regression model, allowing retention of the comparison group in the analysis if it is needed for stability or precision in estimating age, time, and sex effects. Consideration of heterogeneity in comparison groups is particularly important in dose-response studies focused on low doses at which the response may be comparable in magnitude to such heterogeneity.

Age Factors↗
PubMed1999

Posttraumatic stress responses in bereaved children after the Oklahoma City bombing.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the responses of middle and high school students exposed to the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing across a spectrum of loss. METHOD: A questionnaire measuring exposure, personal consequences, initial response, and current posttraumatic stress and other symptoms was administered to 3,218 students 7 weeks after the explosion. RESULTS: More than one third of the sample knew someone killed in the explosion. Bereaved youths were more likely than nonbereaved peers to report immediate symptoms of arousal and fear, changes in their home and school environment, and posttraumatic stress symptoms. Retrospective measures of initial arousal and fear predicted posttraumatic stress symptoms at 7 weeks. CONCLUSIONS: The results support the literature addressing the role of initial response in posttraumatic stress symptom development. The study raises concern about the impact of television, and traumatized youths' reactivity to it, in the aftermath of disaster.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1999

Argentine Jewish community institution bomb explosion.

BACKGROUND: Descriptive study of physical injuries and implemented organization from a nearby, unwarned university hospital after the July 18, 1994, bombing of the seven-story Argentine Israeli Mutual Association (AMIA) building in Buenos Aires. Data were obtained from hospital medical records. RESULTS: A total of 86 victims arrived at the emergency department, 2 victims were dead on arrival, 41 victims were admitted, and 43 victims with minor injuries were assisted and allowed to go home. The explosion caused a total of 86 deaths and left more than 200 people injured. Mortality rate among hospitalized survivors was 8.3% and among critically injured victims was 28.6%. CONCLUSION: The total collapse of a multiple-story building immediately kills most of its occupants. In the present study, the few surviving victims were located at the lower floors. The majority of hospitalized victims were outside the building at the moment of the blast. Rapid overcrowding of the emergency department with minor and moderate injuries that do not require hospitalization should be anticipated by disaster management plans. Centralization of severely injured patients in critical areas seems appropriate, because this method keeps major cases from spreading through different wards.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1990

Efficacy of bomb shelters: with lessons from the Hamburg firestorm.

Shelters for protection against the effects of nuclear weapons are often stated to be useless, largely because of firestorms. Recent models purport to show that nuclear weapons are more likely to cause firestorms than previously thought. These controversial models are based on uncertain assumptions, which are difficult or impossible to test. Regardless of the predictive validity of fire models, conclusions about the ability of shelters to protect their occupants against firestorms, if they occur, are based primarily on historical experience. A review of the original data from the Hamburg firestorm shows that almost all persons in adequate shelters survived, contradicting a currently prevailing belief that all died. The results of the strategic bombing during World War II and of nuclear weapons tests show that a considerable level of population protection can be achieved through attention to proper shelter design.

Burns↗
PubMed2005

Casualties treated at the closest hospital in the Madrid, March 11, terrorist bombings.

BACKGROUND: At 07:39 am on March 11th, 2004, ten terrorist bomb explosions occurred almost simultaneously in four commuter trains in Madrid, Spain, killing instantly 177 people and injuring >2,000. There were 14 subsequent in-hospital deaths, bringing the definite death toll to 191 victims. This article describes the organization of the clinical management and patterns of injuries in casualties who were taken to the closest hospital, with emphasis on the critical patient population. RESULTS: There were 312 patients taken to that center, and 91 were hospitalized, 89 of them (28.5%) for >24 hrs. Sixty-two patients only had superficial bruises or emotional shock, but the remaining 250 patients had more severe lesions. The data on 243 of the latter form the basis of this report. Tympanic perforation occurred in 41% of 243 victims with moderate-to-severe trauma, chest injuries in 40%, shrapnel wounds in 36%, fractures in 18%, first- or second-degree burns in 18%, eye lesions in 18%, head trauma in 12%, and abdominal injuries in 5%. Between 8:00 am and 5:00 pm, 34 surgical interventions were performed on 32 victims. Twenty-nine casualties (12% of the total or 32.5% of those hospitalized) were deemed in critical condition, and two of them died within minutes of arrival. The other 27 survived to be admitted to intensive care units, and three of them died, bringing the critical mortality rate to 17.2% (5/29). The mean Injury Severity Score and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II scores of critical patients were 34 and 23, respectively. Among these critical patients, soft-tissue and musculoskeletal injuries predominated in 85% of cases, ear blast injury was identified in 67%, and blast lung injury was present in 63% (17 cases). Fifty-two percent suffered head trauma. CONCLUSIONS: There was probably an overtriage to the closest hospital, and the time of the blasts proved crucial for the adequacy of the medical and surgical response. The number of blast lung injuries seen is probably the largest reported by a single institution, and the critical mortality rate was reasonably low.

Blast Injuries↗
PubMed2003

Psychiatric admissions for psychosis in Malmö during the NATO bombing of Kosovo.

Little is known about the possible mechanisms contributing to increased risk for psychosis found among immigrants. We used the NATO bombing campaign of Kosovo as a naturalistic experiment to explore the role of potentially stressful aspects of minority group status. We examined all patient admissions to the psychiatric clinic in Malmö during the months of the NATO campaign in Kosovo in 1999 and during control months in 1997. Admission rates showed significantly differing trends over time, with an increasing proportion of immigrant patients with psychosis admitted during the NATO campaign months and a decreasing proportion of such patients admitted during control months. A significantly greater proportion of the immigrant patients admitted for psychosis during the NATO campaign months versus control months had been exposed to extreme duress before migration. Cumulative adversity, either solely or in combination with current stress, may possibly contribute to increased risk for psychosis among immigrants.

Adult↗
PubMed2005

How does casualty load affect trauma care in urban bombing incidents? A quantitative analysis.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this modeling study was to examine how casualty load affects the level of trauma care in multiple casualty incidents and to define the surge capacity of the hospital trauma assets. METHODS: The disaster plan of a U.S. Level I trauma center was translated into a computer model and challenged with simulated casualties based on 223 patients from 22 bombing incidents treated at an Israeli hospital. The model assigns providers and facilities to casualties and computes the level of care for each critical casualty from six variables that reflect the composition of the trauma team and access to facilities. RESULTS: The model predicts a sigmoid-shaped relationship between casualty load and the level of care, with the upper flat portion of the curve corresponding to the surge capacity of the trauma assets of the hospital. This capacity is 4.6 critical patients per hour using immediately available assets. A fully deployed disaster plan shifts the curve to the right, increasing the surge capacity to 7.1. Overtriage rates of 50% and 75% shift the curve to the left, decreasing the surge capacity to 3.8 and 2.7, respectively. CONCLUSION: This model defines the quantitative relationship between an increasing casualty load and gradual degradation of the level of trauma care in multiple casualty incidents, and defines the surge capacity of the hospital trauma assets as a rate of casualty arrival rather than a number of beds. The study demonstrates the value of dynamic computer modeling as an important tool in disaster planning.

Blast Injuries↗
PubMed1998

Human T-lymphotropic virus type-I infection, antibody titers and cause-specific mortality among atomic-bomb survivors.

There have been few longitudinal studies on the long-term health effects of human T-lymphotropic virus type-I (HTLV-I) infection. The authors performed a cohort study of HTLV-I infection and cause-specific mortality in 3,090 atomic-bomb survivors in Nagasaki, Japan, who were followed from 1985-1987 to 1995. The prevalence of HTLV-I seropositivity in men and women was 99/1,196 (8.3%) and 171/1,894 (9.0%), respectively. During a median follow-up of 8.9 years, 448 deaths occurred. There was one nonfatal case of adult T-cell leukemia/lymphoma (incidence rate = 0.46 cases/1,000 person-years; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.01-2.6). After adjustment for sex, age and other potential confounders, significantly increased risk among HTLV-I carriers was observed for deaths from all causes (rate ratio [RR] = 1.41), all cancers (RR = 1.64), liver cancer (RR = 3.04), and heart diseases (RR = 2.22). The association of anti-HTLV-I seropositivity with mortality from all non-neoplastic diseases (RR = 1.40) and chronic liver diseases (RR = 5.03) was of borderline significance. Possible confounding by blood transfusions and hepatitis C/B (HCV/HBV) viral infections could not be precluded in this study. However, even after liver cancer and chronic liver diseases were excluded, mortality rate was still increased among HTLV-I carriers (RR = 1.32, 95% CI 0.99-1.78), especially among those with high antibody titers (RR = 1.56, 95% CI 0.99-2.46, P for trend = 0.04). These findings may support the idea that HTLV-I infection exerts adverse effects on mortality from causes other than adult T-cell leukemia/lymphoma. Further studies on confounding by HCV/HBV infections and the interaction between HCV/HBV and HTLV-I may be required to analyze the increased mortality from liver cancer and chronic liver diseases.

Adult↗
PubMed2006

Human T-cell lymphotropic virus type-1 infection and risk of cancer: 15.4 year longitudinal study among atomic bomb survivors in Nagasaki, Japan.

The objective of the present study was to investigate the association between human T-lymphotropic virus type-1 (HTLV-1) infection and cancer risk in a longitudinal study. The study population consisted of 2729 atomic bomb survivors in Nagasaki Prefecture, Japan, who had no previous history of cancer at baseline. The baseline survey, including analysis of antibody to HTLV-1, took place during 1985-1987 and follow-up was performed until the end of 2001. There were 553 incident cases of malignant neoplasms during the observation period. After adjustment for sex, age and other variables, HTLV-1 infection was not associated with the risk of developing cancers of all sites, excluding adult T-cell leukemia (rate ratio 1.0, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.76-1.4), stomach, colon and rectum, lung, female breast or other minor sites, but was associated with increased risk of liver cancer (rate ratio 2.1, 95%CI 1.0-4.6). The point estimate of the rate ratio for thyroid cancer was 3.0, but this was not significantly higher than 1 because of the small number of events (n = 11) and low prevalence of HTLV-1 seropositivity. These findings support the idea that HTLV-1 infection is not associated with an increased general cancer risk. Confounding by hepatitis C virus (HCV) and the interaction between HTLV-1 and HCV may explain the increased risk of liver cancer among HTLV-1 carriers. Further follow-up may be required to determine if HTLV-1 carriers are at increased risk of thyroid cancer.

Female↗
PubMed1987

Evidence for increased somatic cell mutations at the glycophorin A locus in atomic bomb survivors.

A recently developed assay for somatic cell mutations was used to study survivors of the atomic bomb at Hiroshima. This assay measures the frequency of variant erythrocytes produced by erythroid precursor cells with mutations that result in a loss of gene expression at the polymorphic glycophorin A (GPA) locus. Significant linear relations between variant frequency (VF) and radiation exposure were observed for three different variant cell phenotypes. The spontaneous and induced VFs agree with previous measurements of radiation-induced mutagenesis in other systems; this evidence supports a mutational origin for variant cells characterized by a loss of GPA expression and suggests that the GPA assay system may provide a cumulative dosimeter of past radiation exposures. VFs for some survivors differ dramatically from the calculated dose response, and these deviations appear to result primarily from statistical fluctuations in the number of mutations in the stem-cell pool. These fluctuations allow one to estimate the number of long-lived hemopoietic stem cells in humans.

Antibodies, Monoclonal↗
PubMed1981

Genetic effects of the atomic bombs: a reappraisal.

Data are presented on four indicators of genetic effects from studies of children born to survivors of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The indicators are frequency of untoward pregnancy outcomes (stillbirth, major congenital defect, death during the first postnatal weak); occurrence of death in live-born children, through an average of life expectancy of 17 years; frequency of children with sex chromosome aneuploidy; and frequency of children with mutation resulting in an eletrophoretic variant. In no instance is there a statistically significant effect of parental exposure; but for all indicators the observed effect is in the direction suggested by the hypothesis that genetic damage resulted from the exposure. On the basis of assumptions concerning the contribution that spontaneous mutation in the preceding generation makes to the indicators in question, it is possible to estimate the genetic doubling dose for radiation for the first three indicators (the data base is still too small for the fourth). The average of these estimates is 156 rems. This is some four times higher than the results from experimental studies on the mouse with comparable radiation sources, which have been the principal guide to the presumed human sensitivities. The relevance of these data in setting permissible limits for human exposures is discussed briefly.

Chromosome Aberrations↗
PubMed1976

Ballbearing-bomb injuries.

Ballbearings from terrorist bombs produce entrance wounds remarkably similar to those caused by bullets. This may be a source of confusion to both surgeons and pathologists.

Blast Injuries↗
PubMed1975

The Tower of London bomb explosion.

After the detonation of a bomb in the Tower of London 37 people were brought to St. Bartholomew's Hospital. The explosion caused numerous severe injuries of a type rarely seen in peacetime.

Abdominal Injuries↗
PubMed2005

Psychological and behavioural reactions to the bombings in London on 7 July 2005: cross sectional survey of a representative sample of Londoners.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the impact of the bombings in London on 7 July on stress levels and travel intentions in London's population. DESIGN: A cross sectional telephone survey using random digit dialling was conducted to contact a representative sample of adults. Respondents were asked to participate in an interview enquiring about current levels of stress and travel intentions. SETTING: Interviews took place between 18 and 20 July. PARTICIPANTS: 1010 participants (10% of the eligible people we contacted) completed the interviews. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Main outcomes were presence of substantial stress, measured by using an identical tool to that used to assess the emotional impact of 11 September 2001 in the US population, and intention to travel less on tubes, trains, and buses, or into central London, once the transport network had returned to normal. RESULTS: 31% of Londoners reported substantial stress and 32% reported an intention to travel less. Among other things, having difficulty contacting friends or family by mobile phone (odds ratio 1.7, 95% confidence interval 1.1 to 2.7), having thought you could have been injured or killed (3.8, 2.4 to 6.2), and being Muslim (4.0, 2.5 to 6.6) were associated with a greater presence of substantial stress, whereas being white (0.3, 0.2 to 0.4) and having previous experience of terrorism (0.6, 0.5 to 0.9) were associated with reduced stress. Only 12 participants (1%) felt that they needed professional help to deal with their emotional response to the attacks. CONCLUSIONS: Although the psychological needs of those intimately caught up in the attacks will require further assessment, we found no evidence of a widespread desire for professional counselling. The attacks have inflicted disproportionately high levels of distress among non-white and Muslim Londoners.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1982

Delayed effects of A-bomb radiation: a review of recent mortality rates and risk estimates for five-year survivors.

A review of published data relating to A-bomb survivors has led to the conclusion that since they were based on the mortality experiences of five year survivors estimates of radiation effects should have been controlled for two opposing forces-namely, selective survival of exceptionally fit individuals during the period of heavy acute mortality and residual disabilities. Both effects were dose-related and beyond question, and the disabilities probably included the effects of incomplete repair of bone marrow damage. Therefore, in addition to differences between high and low dose being largely obliterated, there was probably distortion of cancer effects. The two opposing forces are clearly the reason why the change from the high mortality rates of 1945-6 to the low rates of the 1950s was not accompanied by a change from a position to a negative association with dose, and imperviousness to the residual disabilities is probably the reason why sudden deaths of previously healthy individuals (exemplified by suicides) were an exception to this rule. Finally, impairment of bone marrow function probably accounts for the early epidemic of myeloid leukaemia; the apparent absence of other cancers at this time, and the relatively high dose-related death rates for blood diseases other than leukaemia.

Bone Marrow Diseases↗
PubMed1984

Non-cancer effects of exposure to A-bomb radiation.

A slight rearrangement of the data included in a recent report from the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) has shown differences between cardiovascular and other non-malignant diseases of A-bomb survivors which probably result from two factors: selection effects of early infection deaths and residual effects of marrow damage. Both effects were dose related but neither was obvious becasue one reduced the risk of later infection deaths and the other increased the risk. Allowance for these factors is bound to alter present RERF estimates for cancer effects of radiation and the change will probably be in an upward direction, thus bringing these estimates closer to ones based on radiation workers.

Cardiovascular Diseases↗