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Designing for nonparametric Bayesian survival analysis using historical controls.

This paper gives a method for choosing the number of patients N0 out of N available patients to be randomized to current controls om a two-arm study when comparison of nonparametric survival curves is the anticipated method of data analysis. The criterion imposed is that of choosing N0 to minimize the posterior variance of the difference between the current control and experimental survival curves. A nonparametric Bayesian argument incorporating the survival curve of available historical controls establishes the criterion. Formulas and tables which facilitate this computation are presented.

Bayes Theorem↗

Partial-volume Bayesian classification of material mixtures in MR volume data using voxel histograms.

We present a new algorithm for identifying the distribution of different material types in volumetric datasets such as those produced with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) or computed tomography (CT). Because we allow for mixtures of materials and treat voxels as regions, our technique reduces errors that other classification techniques can create along boundaries between materials and is particularly useful for creating accurate geometric models and renderings from volume data. It also has the potential to make volume measurements more accurately and classifies noisy, low-resolution data well. There are two unusual aspects to our approach. First, we assume that, due to partial-volume effects, or blurring, voxels can contain more than one material, e.g., both muscle and fat; we compute the relative proportion of each material in the voxels. Second, we incorporate information from neighboring voxels into the classification process by reconstructing a continuous function, rho(x), from the samples and then looking at the distribution of values that rho(x) takes on within the region of a voxel. This distribution of values is represented by a histogram taken over the region of the voxel; the mixture of materials that those values measure is identified within the voxel using a probabilistic Bayesian approach that matches the histogram by finding the mixture of materials within each voxel most likely to have created the histogram. The size of regions that we classify is chosen to match the spacing of the samples because the spacing is intrinsically related to the minimum feature size that the reconstructed continuous function can represent.

Algorithms↗

Bayesian 2-D deconvolution: a model for diffuse ultrasound scattering.

Observed medical ultrasound images are degraded representations of the true acoustic tissue reflectance. The degradation is due to blur and speckle and significantly reduces the diagnostic value of the images. To remove both blur and speckle, we have developed a new statistical model for diffuse scattering in 2-D ultrasound radio frequency images, incorporating both spatial smoothness constraints and a physical model for diffuse scattering. The modeling approach is Bayesian in nature, and we use Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to obtain the restorations. The results from restorations of some real and simulated radio frequency ultrasound images are presented and compared with results produced by Wiener filtering.

Algorithms↗

Bayesian inference for a correlated 2 x 2 table with a structural zero.

We develop a new Bayesian approach to interval estimation for both the risk difference and the risk ratio for a 2 x 2 table with a structural zero using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We also derive a normal approximation for the risk difference and a gamma approximation for the risk ratio. We then compare the coverage and interval width of our new intervals to the score-based intervals over various parameter and sample-size configurations. Finally, we consider a Bayesian method for sample-size determination.

Algorithms↗

Obtaining an unbiased estimate of intake in routine monitoring when the time of intake is unknown.

A common problem in internal dosimetry occurs in routine monitoring, when it is required to estimate an intake from a measurement made at the end of a monitoring interval, and the time of intake is unknown. ICRP suggests that, in these cases, it should be assumed that the intake occurred in the middle of the monitoring period. However, it has been shown that this will, in the long term, lead to biased estimates of a worker's intake and dose. In order to overcome this biasing, the United States Department of Energy (USDOE) recommends a different method based on calculating the intakes for all possible intake-times in the interval, and then taking an arithmetic average. In this paper, it is shown that both the ICRP and USDOE methods are biased. An alternative method is suggested, which assumes a constant chronic intake throughout the monitoring interval. Monte Carlo simulations are used to estimate the magnitude of bias for two realistic monitoring programmes using all three methods. It is shown that the proposed method is unbiased and also yields estimates of intake that are generally closer to the actual intake, than the other two. The Monte Carlo conclusions are backed up by a theoretical analysis of bias. Finally, the source of bias in the apparently intuitive approach of the USDOE method is revealed by viewing the problem from a Bayesian perspective.

Algorithms↗

Strategies for estimating the parameters needed for different test-day models.

Currently, most analyses of parameters in test-day models involve two types of models: random regression, where various functions describe variability of (co)variances with regard to days in milk, and multiple traits, where observations in adjacent days in milk are treated as one trait. The methodologies used for estimation of parameters included Bayesian via Gibbs sampling, and REML in the form of derivative-free, expectation-maximization, or average-information algorithms. The first method is simpler and uses less memory but may need many rounds to produce posterior samples. In REML, however, the stopping point is well established. Because of computing limitations, the largest estimations of parameters were on fewer than 20,000 animals. The magnitude and pattern of heritabilities varied widely, which could be caused by simplifications in the model, overparameterization, small sample size, and unrepresentative samples. Patterns of heritability differ among random regression and multiple-trait models. Accurate parameters for large multi-trait random regression models may be difficult to obtain at the present time. Parameters that are sufficiently accurate in practice may be obtained outside the complete prediction model by a constructive approach, where parameters averaged over the lactation would be combined with several typical curves for (co)variances for days in milk. Obtained parameters could be used for any model, and could also aid in comparison of models.

Analysis of Variance↗

A Bayesian hierarchical survival model for the institutional effects in a multi-centre cancer clinical trial.

In randomized clinical trials comparing treatment effects on diseases such as cancer, a multi-centre trial is usually conducted to accrue the required number of patients in a reasonable period of time. While we interpret the average treatment effect, it is necessary to examine the homogeneity of the observed treatment effects across institutions, that is, treatment-by-institution interaction. If the homogeneity is confirmed, the conclusions concerning treatment effects can be generalized to a broader patient population. In this paper, a Bayesian hierarchical survival model is used to investigate the institutional effects on the efficacy of treatment as well as on the baseline risk. The marginal posterior distributions are estimated by a Markov chain Monte Carlo method, that is, Gibbs sampling, to overcome current computational limitations. The robustness of the inferences to the distributional assumption for the random effects is also examined. We illustrate the methods with analyses of data from a multi-centre cancer clinical trial, which investigated the efficacy of immunochemotherapy as an adjuvant treatment after curative resection of gastric cancer. In this trial there is little difference in the treatment effects across institutions and the treatment is shown to be effective, while there appears to be substantial variation in the baseline risk across institutions. This result indicates that the observed treatment effects might be generalized to a broader patient population.

Adjuvants, Immunologic↗

Estimation of kinetic model parameters in fluorescence optical diffusion tomography.

We present a technique for reconstructing the spatially dependent dynamics of a fluorescent contrast agent in turbid media. The dynamic behavior is described by linear and nonlinear parameters of a compartmental model or some other model with a deterministic functional form. The method extends our previous work in fluorescence optical diffusion tomography by parametrically reconstructing the time-dependent fluorescent yield. The reconstruction uses a Bayesian framework and parametric iterative coordinate descent optimization, which is closely related to Gauss-Seidel methods. We demonstrate the method with a simulation study.

Algorithms↗

Inferring gene regulatory networks with time delays using a genetic algorithm.

Recently a state-space model with time delays for inferring gene regulatory networks was proposed. It was assumed that each regulation between two internal state variables had multiple time delays. This assumption caused underestimation of the model with many current gene expression datasets. In biological reality, one regulatory relationship may have just a single time delay, and not multiple time delays. This study employs Boolean variables to capture the existence of the time-delayed regulatory relationships in gene regulatory networks in terms of the state-space model. As the solution space of time delayed relationships is too large for an exhaustive search, a genetic algorithm (GA) is proposed to determine the optimal Boolean variables (the optimal time-delayed regulatory relationships). Coupled with the proposed GA, Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and probabilistic principle component analysis (PPCA) are employed to infer gene regulatory networks with time delays. Computational experiments are performed on two real gene expression datasets. The results show that the GA is effective at finding time-delayed regulatory relationships. Moreover, the inferred gene regulatory networks with time delays from the datasets improve the prediction accuracy and possess more of the expected properties of a real network, compared to a gene regulatory network without time delays.

Algorithms↗

Comparison of Bayesian model averaging and stepwise methods for model selection in logistic regression.

Logistic regression is the standard method for assessing predictors of diseases. In logistic regression analyses, a stepwise strategy is often adopted to choose a subset of variables. Inference about the predictors is then made based on the chosen model constructed of only those variables retained in that model. This method subsequently ignores both the variables not selected by the procedure, and the uncertainty due to the variable selection procedure. This limitation may be addressed by adopting a Bayesian model averaging approach, which selects a number of all possible such models, and uses the posterior probabilities of these models to perform all inferences and predictions. This study compares the Bayesian model averaging approach with the stepwise procedures for selection of predictor variables in logistic regression using simulated data sets and the Framingham Heart Study data. The results show that in most cases Bayesian model averaging selects the correct model and out-performs stepwise approaches at predicting an event of interest.

Age Factors↗

Multivariate Bayesian analysis of Gaussian, right censored Gaussian, ordered categorical and binary traits using Gibbs sampling.

A fully Bayesian analysis using Gibbs sampling and data augmentation in a multivariate model of Gaussian, right censored, and grouped Gaussian traits is described. The grouped Gaussian traits are either ordered categorical traits (with more than two categories) or binary traits, where the grouping is determined via thresholds on the underlying Gaussian scale, the liability scale. Allowances are made for unequal models, unknown covariance matrices and missing data. Having outlined the theory, strategies for implementation are reviewed. These include joint sampling of location parameters; efficient sampling from the fully conditional posterior distribution of augmented data, a multivariate truncated normal distribution; and sampling from the conditional inverse Wishart distribution, the fully conditional posterior distribution of the residual covariance matrix. Finally, a simulated dataset was analysed to illustrate the methodology. This paper concentrates on a model where residuals associated with liabilities of the binary traits are assumed to be independent. A Bayesian analysis using Gibbs sampling is outlined for the model where this assumption is relaxed.

Bayes Theorem↗

H-CORE: enabling genome-scale Bayesian analysis of biological systems without prior knowledge.

The Bayesian network is a popular tool for describing relationships between data entities by representing probabilistic (in)dependencies with a directed acyclic graph (DAG) structure. Relationships have been inferred between biological entities using the Bayesian network model with high-throughput data from biological systems in diverse fields. However, the scalability of those approaches is seriously restricted because of the huge search space for finding an optimal DAG structure in the process of Bayesian network learning. For this reason, most previous approaches limit the number of target entities or use additional knowledge to restrict the search space. In this paper, we use the hierarchical clustering and order restriction (H-CORE) method for the learning of large Bayesian networks by clustering entities and restricting edge directions between those clusters, with the aim of overcoming the scalability problem and thus making it possible to perform genome-scale Bayesian network analysis without additional biological knowledge. We use simulations to show that H-CORE is much faster than the widely used sparse candidate method, whilst being of comparable quality. We have also applied H-CORE to retrieving gene-to-gene relationships in a biological system (The 'Rosetta compendium'). By evaluating learned information through literature mining, we demonstrate that H-CORE enables the genome-scale Bayesian analysis of biological systems without any prior knowledge.

Algorithms↗

Bayesian fMRI time series analysis with spatial priors.

We describe a Bayesian estimation and inference procedure for fMRI time series based on the use of General Linear Models (GLMs). Importantly, we use a spatial prior on regression coefficients which embodies our prior knowledge that evoked responses are spatially contiguous and locally homogeneous. Further, using a computationally efficient Variational Bayes framework, we are able to let the data determine the optimal amount of smoothing. We assume an arbitrary order Auto-Regressive (AR) model for the errors. Our model generalizes earlier work on voxel-wise estimation of GLM-AR models and inference in GLMs using Posterior Probability Maps (PPMs). Results are shown on simulated data and on data from an event-related fMRI experiment.

Bayes Theorem↗

An adaptive Gaussian model for satellite image deblurring.

The deconvolution of blurred and noisy satellite images is an ill-posed inverse problem, which can be regularized within a Bayesian context by using an a priori model of the reconstructed solution. Since real satellite data show spatially variant characteristics, we propose here to use an inhomogeneous model. We use the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) to estimate its parameters and we show that the MLE computed on the corrupted image is not suitable for image deconvolution because it is not robust to noise. We then show that the estimation is correct only if it is made from the original image. Since this image is unknown, we need to compute an approximation of sufficiently good quality to provide useful estimation results. Such an approximation is provided by a wavelet-based deconvolution algorithm. Thus, a hybrid method is first used to estimate the space-variant parameters from this image and then to compute the regularized solution. The obtained results on high resolution satellite images simultaneously exhibit sharp edges, correctly restored textures, and a high SNR in homogeneous areas, since the proposed technique adapts to the local characteristics of the data.

Algorithms↗

Localization of a quantitative trait locus via a Bayesian approach.

A Bayesian approach to the direct mapping of a quantitative trait locus (QTL), fully utilizing information from multiple linked gene markers, is presented in this paper. The joint posterior distribution (a mixture distribution modeling the linkage between a biallelic QTL and N gene markers) is computationally challenging and invites exploration via Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The parameter's complete marginal posterior densities are obtained, allowing a diverse range of inferences. Parameters estimated include the QTL genotype probabilities for the sires and the offspring, the allele frequencies for the QTL, and the position and additive and dominance effects of the QTL. The methodology is applied through simulation to a half-sib design to form an outbred pedigree structure where there is an entire class of missing information. The capacity of the technique to accurately estimate parameters is examined for a range of scenarios.

Algorithms↗

Bayesian inferences in the Cox model for order-restricted hypotheses.

In studying the relationship between an ordered categorical predictor and an event time, it is standard practice to include dichotomous indicators of the different levels of the predictor in a Cox model. One can then use a multiple degree-of-freedom score or partial likelihood ratio test for hypothesis testing. Often, interest focuses on comparing the null hypothesis of no difference to an order-restricted alternative, such as a monotone increase across levels of a predictor. This article proposes a Bayesian approach for addressing hypotheses of this type. We reparameterize the Cox model in terms of a cumulative product of parameters having conjugate prior densities, consisting of mixtures of point masses at one, and truncated gamma densities. Due to the structure of the model, posterior computation can proceed via a simple and efficient Gibbs sampling algorithm. Posterior probabilities for the global null hypothesis and subhypotheses, comparing the hazards for specific groups, can be calculated directly from the output of a single Gibbs chain. The approach allows for level sets across which a predictor has no effect. Generalizations to multiple predictors are described, and the method is applied to a study of emergency medical treatment for stroke.

Bayes Theorem↗

Speech utterance clustering based on the maximization of within-cluster homogeneity of speaker voice characteristics.

This paper investigates the problem of how to partition unknown speech utterances into a set of clusters, such that each cluster consists of utterances from only one speaker, and the number of clusters reflects the unknown speaker population size. The proposed method begins by specifying a certain number of clusters, corresponding to one of the possible speaker population sizes, and then maximizes the level of overall within-cluster homogeneity of the speakers' voice characteristics. The within-cluster homogeneity is characterized by the likelihood probability that a cluster model, trained using all the utterances within a cluster, matches each of the within-cluster utterances. To attain the maximal sum of likelihood probabilities for all utterances, the proposed method applies a genetic algorithm to determine the cluster in which each utterance should be located. For greater computational efficiency, also proposed is a clustering criterion that approximates the likelihood probability with a divergence-based model similarity between a cluster and each of the within-cluster utterances. The clustering method then examines various legitimate numbers of clusters by adapting the Bayesian information criterion to determine the most likely speaker population size. The experimental results show the superiority of the proposed method over conventional methods based on hierarchical clustering.

Algorithms↗