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Processes leading to confidence and accuracy in sentence recognition: a metamemory approach.

We propose that memory confidence is based on the processes and products of the just-completed memory task, along with the participants' metamemory beliefs about the relation of these processes and products to memory accuracy. We tested this metamemory approach to confidence by having participants carry out a simple recognition memory task with deceptive and nondeceptive items. The deceptive items were sentences that contained a possible synonym substitution, thus allowing errors based on gist memory. For nondeceptive items, high confidence was associated with high accuracy. For deceptive items the relationship reversed; high confidence was associated with low accuracy. A memory process questionnaire was developed that provided more differentiated phenomenal reports than the traditional know/remember distinction. For nondeceptive items, metamemory beliefs tended to be valid indicators of accuracy, but for deceptive items involving unconscious reconstructive memory processes, they tended to be invalid indicators of memory accuracy. The overall results lend strong support for our metamemory approach to memory confidence.

Cues↗

DSM-IV diagnostic criteria for pathological gambling: reliability, validity, and classification accuracy.

The purpose of this study was to examine the reliability, validity, and classification accuracy of the DSM-IV diagnostic criteria for pathological gambling. Given the lack of a laboratory test to diagnose pathological gambling, two groups were recruited in order to test DSM-IV diagnostic classification accuracy, one which likely had the disorder and the other which likely did not have the disorder (121 men and women clients at a gambling treatment facility) (138 men and women selected at random from the Windsor, Ontario, community who had gambled in the past twelve months). The Gambling Behavior Interview was administered to both groups. The Gambling Behavior Interview was administered to both groups. The Gambling Behavior Interview includes items that measure the ten DSM-IV diagnostic criteria for pathological gambling as well as other gambling problem severity measures and scales that served as tests of convergent validity. The ten DSM-IV diagnostic criteria were found to exhibit satisfactory reliability, validity, and classification accuracy; however, lowering the cut score to four and using item weights yielded improved classification accuracy over the standard cut score of five. Some diagnostic criteria were found to have greater discriminatory power than other criteria. The results of this study suggest that the classification accuracy of DSM-IV diagnostic criteria can be improved upon with a lower cut score or using weighted criteria.

Adolescent↗

Does adding characters with missing data increase or decrease phylogenetic accuracy?

Missing data are a widely recognized nuisance factor in phylogenetic analyses, and the fear of missing data may deter systematists from including characters that are highly incomplete. In this paper, I used simulations to explore the consequences of including sets of characters that contain missing data. More specifically, I tested whether the benefits of increasing the number of characters outweigh the costs of adding missing data cells to a matrix. The results show that the addition of a set of characters with missing data is generally more likely to increase phylogenetic accuracy than decrease it, but the potential benefits of adding these characters quickly disappear as the proportion of missing data increases. Furthermore, despite the overall trend, adding characters with missing data does decrease accuracy in some cases. In these situations, the missing data entries are not themselves misleading, but their presence may mimic the effects of limited taxon sampling, which can positively mislead. Criteria are discussed for predicting whether adding characters with missing data may increase or decrease accuracy. The results of this study also suggest that accuracy can be increased to a surprising degree by (1) "filling the holes" in a data matrix as much as possible (even when relatively few taxa are missing data), and (2) adding fewer characters scored for all taxa rather than adding a larger number of characters known for fewer taxa. Missing data can also be eliminated from an analysis through the exclusion of incomplete taxa rather than incomplete characters, but this approach may reduce the usefulness of the analysis and (in some cases) the accuracy of the estimated trees.

Data Interpretation, Statistical↗

Three-dimensional echocardiography: assessment of inter- and intra-operator variability and accuracy in the measurement of left ventricular cavity volume and myocardial mass.

Accurate left ventricular (LV) volume and mass estimation is a strong predictor of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. We propose that our technique of 3D echocardiography provides an accurate quantification of LV volume and mass by the reconstruction of 2D images into 3D volumes, thus avoiding the need for geometric assumptions. We compared the accuracy and variability in LV volume and mass measurement using 3D echocardiography with 2D echocardiography, using in vitro studies. Six operators measured the LV volume and mass of seven porcine hearts, using both 3D and 2D techniques. Regression analysis was used to test the accuracy of results and an ANOVA test was used to compute variability in measurement. LV volume measurement accuracy was 9.8% (3D) and 18.4% (2D); LV mass measurement accuracy was 5% (3D) and 9.2% (2D). Variability in LV volume quantification with 3D echocardiography was %SEMinter = 13.5%, %SEMintra = 11.4%, and for 2D echocardiography was %SEMinter = 21.5%, %SEMintra = 19.1%. We derived an equation to predict uncertainty in measurement of LV volume and mass using 3D echocardiography, the results of which agreed with our experimental results to within 13%. 3D echocardiography provided twice the accuracy for LV volume and mass measurement and half the variability for LV volume measurement as compared with 2D echocardiography.

Analysis of Variance↗

Stereotactic imaging for radiotherapy: accuracy of CT, MRI, PET and SPECT.

CT, MRI, PET and SPECT provide complementary information for treatment planning in stereotactic radiotherapy. Stereotactic correlation of these images requires commissioning tests to confirm the localization accuracy of each modality. A phantom was developed to measure the accuracy of stereotactic localization for CT, MRI, PET and SPECT in the head and neck region. To this end. the stereotactically measured coordinates of structures within the phantom were compared with their mechanically defined coordinates. For MRI, PET and SPECT, measurements were performed using two different devices. For MRI, T1- and T2-weighted imaging sequences were applied. For each measurement, the mean radial deviation in space between the stereotactically measured and mechanically defined position of target points was determined. For CT, the mean radial deviation was 0.4 +/- 0.2 mm. For MRI, the mean deviations ranged between 0.7 +/- 0.2 mm and 1.4 +/- 0.5 mm, depending on the MRI device and the imaging sequence. For PET, mean deviations of 1.1 +/- 0.5 mm and 2.4 +/- 0.3 mm were obtained. The mean deviations for SPECT were 1.6 +/- 0.5 mm and 2.0 +/- 0.6 mm. The phantom is well suited to determine the accuracy of stereotactic localization with CT, MRI, PET and SPECT in the head and neck region. The obtained accuracy is well below the physical resolution for CT, PET and SPECT, and of comparable magnitude for MRI. Since the localization accuracy may be device dependent, results obtained at one device cannot be generalized to others.

Humans↗

Targeting accuracy of an image guided gating system for stereotactic body radiotherapy.

Recently, a commercial system capable of x-ray image guided patient positioning and respiratory gated delivery has become available. Here we describe the operational principles of this system and investigate its geometric targeting accuracy under controlled conditions. The system tracks breathing via infrared (IR) detection of reflective markers located on the patient's abdomen. Localization kilovoltage (kV) x-rays are triggered from within the gated delivery window portion of the breathing trace and after positioning, the tumour will cross the linac isocentre during gated delivery. We tested geometric accuracy of this system by localizing and delivering gated fields to a moving phantom. Effects of phantom speed, gating window location, timing errors and phantom rotations on positioning and gating accuracy were investigated. The system delivered gated fields to both a moving and static phantom with equal accuracy. The position of the gating window affects accuracy only to the extent that an asymmetric breathing motion could affect dose distribution within its boundaries. Positioning errors were found to be less then 0.5 +/- 0.2 mm for phantom rotations up to 5 degrees. We found and corrected a synchronization error caused by a faulty x-ray duration setting and detected a 60 +/- 20 ms time delay in our linear accelerator.

Calibration↗

Secondary hypoxemia exacerbates the reduction of visual discrimination accuracy and neuronal cell density in the dorsal lateral geniculate nucleus resulting from fluid percussion injury.

The purpose of this study was to determine the impact of secondary hypoxemia on visual discrimination accuracy after parasagittal fluid percussion injury (FPI). Rats lived singly in test cages, where they were trained to repeatedly execute a flicker-frequency visual discrimination for food. After learning was complete, all rats were surgically prepared and then retested over the following 4-5 days to ensure recovery to presurgery levels of performance. Rats were then assigned to one of three groups [FPI + Hypoxia (IH), FPI + Normoxia (IN), or Sham Injury + Hypoxia (SH)] and were anesthetized with halothane delivered by compressed air. Immediately after injury or sham injury, rats in groups IH and SH were switched to a 13% O2 source to continue halothane anesthesia for 30 min before being returned to their test cages. Anesthesia for rats in group IN was maintained using compressed air for 30 min after injury. FPI significantly reduced visual discrimination accuracy and food intake, and increased incorrect choices. Thirty minutes of immediate posttraumatic hypoxemia significantly (1) exacerbated the FPI-induced reductions of visual discrimination accuracy and food intake, (2) further increased numbers of incorrect choices, and (3) delayed the progressive recovery of visual discrimination accuracy. Thionine stains of midbrain coronal sections revealed that, in addition to the loss of neurons seen in several thalamic nuclei following FPI, cell loss in the ipsilateral dorsal lateral geniculate nucleus (dLG) was significantly greater after FPI and hypoxemia than after FPI alone. In contrast, neuropathological changes were not evident following hypoxemia alone. These results show that, although hypoxemia alone was without effect, posttraumatic hypoxemia exacerbates FPI-induced reductions in visual discrimination accuracy and secondary hypoxemia interferes with control of the rat's choices by flicker frequency, perhaps in part as a result of neuronal loss and fiber degeneration in the dLG. These results additionally confirm the utility of this visual discrimination procedure as a sensitive, noninvasive means of assessing behavioral function after experimental traumatic brain injury.

Animals↗

A multicenter study of the accuracy of the One Touch Ultra home glucose meter in children with type 1 diabetes.

Data are not readily available on the accuracy of one of the most commonly used home blood glucose meters, the One Touch Ultra (LifeScan, Milpitas, California). The purpose of this report is to provide information on the accuracy of this home glucose meter in children with type 1 diabetes. During a 24-h clinical research center stay, the accuracy of the Ultra meter was assessed in 91 children, 3-17 years old, with type 1 diabetes by comparing the Ultra glucose values with concurrent reference serum glucose values measured in a central laboratory. The Pearson correlation between the 2,068 paired Ultra and reference values was 0.97, with the median relative absolute difference being 6%. Ninety-four percent of all Ultra values (96% of venous and 84% of capillary samples) met the proposed International Organisation for Standardisation (ISO) standard for instruments used for self-monitoring of glucose when compared with venous reference values. Ninety-nine percent of values were in zones A + B of the Modified Error Grid. A high degree of accuracy was seen across the full range of glucose values. For 353 data points during an insulin-induced hypoglycemia test, the Ultra meter was found to have accuracy that was comparable to concurrently used benchmark instruments (Beckman, YSI, or i-STAT); 95% and 96% of readings from the Ultra meter and the benchmark instruments met the proposed ISO criteria, respectively. These results confirm that the One Touch Ultra meter provides accurate glucose measurements for both hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia in children with type 1 diabetes.

Adolescent↗

Dynamic programming alignment accuracy.

Algorithms for generating alignments of biological sequences have inherent statistical limitations when it comes to the accuracy of the alignments they produce. Using simulations, we measure the accuracy of the standard global dynamic programming method and show that it can be reasonably well modelled by an "edge wander" approximation to the distribution of the optimal scoring path around the correct path in the vicinity of a gap. We also give a table from which accuracy values can be predicted for commonly used scoring schemes and sequence divergences (the PAM and BLOSUM series). Finally we describe how to calculate the expected accuracy of a given alignment, and show how this can be used to construct an optimal accuracy alignment algorithm which generates significantly more accurate alignments than standard dynamic programming methods in simulated experiments.

Algorithms↗

Limitations of statistical measures of error in assessing the accuracy of continuous glucose sensors.

BACKGROUND: Various statistical methods are commonly used to assess the accuracy of near-continuous glucose sensors. The performance and reliability of these methods have not been well described. METHODS: We used computer simulation to describe the behavior of several statistical measures including error grid analysis, receiver operating characteristics, correlation, and repeated measures under varying conditions. Actual data from an inpatient accuracy study conducted by the Diabetes Research in Children Network (DirecNet) were also used to demonstrate these limitations. RESULTS: Sensors that were made artificially inaccurate by randomly shuffling the pairings to reference values still fell in Zone A or B 78% of the time for the Clarke grid and 79% of the time for the modified grid. Area under the curve values for these shuffled pairs averaged 64% for hypoglycemia and 68% for hyperglycemia. Continuous error grid analysis resulted in 75% of shuffled pairs designated as "Accurate Readings" or "Benign Errors." Correlation analysis gave inconsistent results for sensors simulated to have identical accuracies with values ranging from 0.50 to 0.96. Simplistic repeated-measures analyses accounting for subject effects, but ignoring temporal correlation patterns substantially inflated the probability of falsely obtaining a statistically significant result. In simulations where the null hypothesis was correct, 23% of observed P values were <0.05 and 12% of observed P values were <0.01. CONCLUSION: Commonly used statistical methods can give overly optimistic and/or inconsistent notions of sensor accuracy if results are not placed in proper context. Novel techniques are needed to assess the accuracy of near-continuous glucose sensors.

Adolescent↗

Telecytology: diagnostic accuracy in cervical-vaginal smears.

Although cervical-vaginal telecytology is a promising tool, diagnostic accuracy has not been extensively evaluated. The authors examined the accuracy of five cytotechnologists who retrospectively reviewed 50 cervical-vaginal smears using the video monitor, and 2 months later, using the light microscope. Accuracy was expressed in terms of crude agreement with the original diagnosis and number of false positives (FPs) and false negatives (FNs). With a greater than one step difference as discrepant, the group crude agreement using the video monitor and the light microscope was 85.6% and 95.6%, respectively. The group number of FNs and FPs for the light microscope was 8 and 7, respectively, and for the video monitor was 34 and 7, respectively. There was a wide range of individual performance. We conclude that accuracy of telecytology is high, but less than that of light microscopy. The major reason for lower telecytologic accuracy was undercalling dysplasia.

Cytodiagnosis↗

Accuracy of technicians versus pharmacists in checking syringes prepared for a dialysis program.

The accuracy of pharmacy technicians versus pharmacists in checking drug doses prepared in syringes for a dialysis program was studied. Three pharmacy technicians from the pharmacy of a regional kidney disease program in Minnesota participated in the study after completing a training program and after common preparation errors had been identified by pharmacists. From November 1995 to April 1996, the technicians used labels printed from a database of pharmacist-verified orders to prepare and label i.v. syringes. Four medications were used-epoetin alfa, calcitriol, heparin prepared from beef lung, and heparin prepared from porcine intestinal mucosa. Each syringe was checked by one of nine pharmacists for accuracy of dose and medication, and all errors were recorded. The technicians checked syringes prepared by other technicians and also recorded errors. Accuracy rates (percentages of syringes correctly evaluated) for pharmacists and technicians were compared. A total of 10,608 syringes were checked. Accuracy rates for pharmacists and pharmacy technicians were 99.86% and 99.83%, respectively. Accuracy rates in checking syringes did not differ significantly between pharmacists and technicians in this study setting.

Chi-Square Distribution↗

Accuracy improvement for identifying translation initiation sites in microbial genomes.

MOTIVATION: At present the computational gene identification methods in microbial genomes have a high prediction accuracy of verified translation termination site (3' end), but a much lower accuracy of the translation initiation site (TIS, 5' end). The latter is important to the analysis and the understanding of the putative protein of a gene and the regulatory machinery of the translation. Improving the accuracy of prediction of TIS is one of the remaining open problems. RESULTS: In this paper, we develop a four-component statistical model to describe the TIS of prokaryotic genes. The model incorporates several features with biological meanings, including the correlation between translation termination site and TIS of genes, the sequence content around the start codon; the sequence content of the consensus signal related to ribosomal binding sites (RBSs), and the correlation between TIS and the upstream consensus signal. An entirely non-supervised training system is constructed, which takes as input a set of annotated coding open reading frames (ORFs) by any gene finder, and gives as output a set of organism-specific parameters (without any prior knowledge or empirical constants and formulas). The novel algorithm is tested on a set of reliable datasets of genes from Escherichia coli and Bacillus subtillis. MED-Start may correctly predict 95.4% of the start sites of 195 experimentally confirmed E.coli genes, 96.6% of 58 reliable B.subtillis genes. Moreover, the test results indicate that the algorithm gives higher accuracy for more reliable datasets, and is robust to the variation of gene length. MED-Start may be used as a postprocessor for a gene finder. After processing by our program, the improvement of gene start prediction of gene finder system is remarkable, e.g. the accuracy of TIS predicted by MED 1.0 increases from 61.7 to 91.5% for 854 E.coli verified genes, while that by GLIMMER 2.02 increases from 63.2 to 92.0% for the same dataset. These results show that our algorithm is one of the most accurate methods to identify TIS of prokaryotic genomes. AVAILABILITY: The program MED-Start can be accessed through the website of CTB at Peking University: http://ctb.pku.edu.cn/main/SheGroup/MED_Start.htm.

Algorithms↗

Effects of levodopa and viscosity on the velocity and accuracy of visually guided tracking in Parkinson's disease.

Deficits in velocity generation and movement accuracy occur in Parkinson's disease and are postulated to contribute to the characteristic bradykinesia. In the present study, we attempted to clarify the relationship between the deficits in velocity generation and movement accuracy. Patients with Parkinson's disease and normal controls tracked visually displayed sinusoidal and step targets with the wrist. Performance was evaluated using measurements of velocity and error. Movement velocity was manipulated by two methods: (i) administration of levodopa; (ii) viscous loading. Dependencies of velocity and error on disease state, medication state and viscosity were examined. Visually guided pursuit tracking was characterized by intermittent and frequent velocity excursions in both the patients and controls. For sinusoidal tracking, levodopa significantly increased velocity in the severely affected parkinsonian patients. Prior to the administration of levodopa, step tracking velocity was significantly lower in all patients than in controls. The "on' state produced an increase in velocity to control levels. Error was significantly greater in the parkinsonian subjects than in controls, but was unchanged by levodopa for both tracking tasks. Manipulations of viscosity produced greater changes in velocity than did levodopa, yet a similar independence with respect to accuracy remained. Velocity significantly changed by 40-60% in the two tracking tasks from the viscous to antiviscous loads. Error did not change significantly in 12 out of 14 comparisons of subgroups based on disease and medication state. This contradicts the hypothesis that patients with Parkinson's disease primarily reduce velocity during tracking to maintain acceptable accuracy in the presence of a defective error correction system. Although parkinsonian subjects tracked with reduced accuracy, both normal and parkinsonian subjects were able to compensate for significant changes in velocity due to external loading. Thus a propulsion deficit exists in parkinsonism that may be alleviated with either antiviscosity or levodopa. An error correction deficit is also present in parkinsonism, but is not modified by antiviscosity or levodopa.

Adult↗

Towards complete and accurate reporting of studies of diagnostic accuracy: the STARD initiative.

OBJECTIVE: Our aim was to improve the accuracy and completeness of reporting of studies of diagnostic accuracy in order to allow readers to assess the potential for bias in a study and to evaluate the generalizability of its results. METHODS: The Standards for Reporting of Diagnostic Accuracy (STARD) steering committee searched the literature to identify publications on the appropriate conduct and reporting of diagnostic studies and extracted potential items into an extensive list. Researchers, editors and members of professional organizations shortened this list during a 2-day consensus meeting with the goal of developing a checklist and a generic flow diagram for studies of diagnostic accuracy. RESULTS: The search for published guidelines about diagnostic research yielded 33 previously published checklists, from which we extracted a list of 75 potential items. At the consensus meeting, participants shortened the list to a 25-item checklist, by using evidence whenever available. A prototype of a flow diagram provides information about the method of recruitment of patients, the order of test execution and the numbers of patients undergoing the test under evaluation and/or the reference standard. CONCLUSIONS: Evaluation of research depends on complete and accurate reporting. If medical journals adopt the checklist and the flow diagram, the quality of reporting of studies of diagnostic accuracy should improve, to the advantage of clinicians, researchers, reviewers, journals and the public.

Bias↗

Asymmetric funnel plots and publication bias in meta-analyses of diagnostic accuracy.

BACKGROUND: Despite the great possibility of publication bias in studies of diagnostic test research, empirical studies about publication bias have mainly focused on studies of treatment effect. METHODS: A sample of 28 meta-analyses of diagnostic accuracy was selected from the Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effectiveness (DARE). Methods used to deal with publication and related biases in these meta-analyses were examined. Asymmetry of funnel plot of estimated test accuracy against corresponding precision for each meta-analysis was assessed by three statistical methods: rank correlation method, regression analysis, and Trim and Fill method. RESULTS: In reviews of diagnostic accuracy, there was a general lack of consideration of appropriate literature searching to minimize publication bias, and the impact of possible publication bias has not been systematically assessed. The results of the three different statistical methods consistently showed that in a large proportion of the 28 meta-analyses evaluated, the smaller studies were associated with a greater diagnostic accuracy. Exploratory analyses found that the fewer the literature databases searched, the greater the funnel plot asymmetry in meta-analyses. Funnel plot asymmetry tended to be greater in meta-analyses that included smaller number of primary studies. Our data revealed no consistent relationship between funnel plot asymmetry and language restriction in reviews. CONCLUSIONS: Further research is required to explain why smaller studies tended to report greater test accuracy in a large proportion of meta-analyses of diagnostic tests. In systematic reviews of diagnostic studies, literature search should be sufficiently comprehensive and possible impact of publication bias should be assessed.

Diagnostic Techniques and Procedures↗

Consequences of different diagnostic "gold standards" in test accuracy research: Carpal Tunnel Syndrome as an example.

Test accuracy studies assume the existence of a well-defined illness definition and clear-cut diagnostic gold standards or reference standards. However, in clinical reality illness definitions may be vague or a mere description of a set of manifestations, mostly clinical signs and symptoms. This can lead to disagreements among experts about the correct classification of an illness and the adequate reference standard. Using data from a diagnostic accuracy study in carpal tunnel syndrome, we explored the impact of different definitions on the estimated test accuracy and found that estimated test performance characteristics varied considerably depending on the chosen reference standard. In situations without a clear-cut illness definition, randomized controlled trials may be preferable to test accuracy studies for the evaluation of a novel test. These studies do not determine the diagnostic accuracy, but the clinical impact of a novel test on patient management and outcome.

Carpal Tunnel Syndrome↗

Virologic versus cytologic triage of women with equivocal Pap smears: a meta-analysis of the accuracy to detect high-grade intraepithelial neoplasia.

BACKGROUND: The appropriate management of women with minor cytologic lesions in their cervix is unclear. We performed a meta-analysis to assess the accuracy of human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA testing as an alternative to repeat cytology in women who had equivocal results on a previous Pap smear. METHODS: Data were extracted from articles published between 1992 and 2002 that contained results of virologic and cytologic testing followed by colposcopically directed biopsy in women with an index smear showing atypical cells of undetermined significance (ASCUS). Fifteen studies were identified in which HPV triage and the histologic outcome (presence or absence of a cervical intraepithelial neoplasia of grade II or worse [CIN2+]) was documented. Nine, seven, and two studies also documented the accuracy of repeat cytology when the cutoff for abnormal cytology was set at a threshold of ASCUS or worse, low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (LSIL) or worse, or high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (HSIL) or worse, respectively. Random-effects models were used for pooling of accuracy parameters in case of interstudy heterogeneity. Differences in accuracy were assessed by pooling the ratio of the sensitivity (or specificity) of HPV testing to that of repeat cytology. RESULTS: The sensitivity and specificity were 84.4% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 77.6% to 91.1%) and 72.9% (95% CI = 62.5% to 83.3%), respectively, for HPV testing overall and 94.8% (95% CI = 92.7% to 96.9%) and 67.3% (95% CI = 58.2% to 76.4%), respectively, for HPV testing in the eight studies that used the Hybrid Capture II assay. Sensitivity and specificity of repeat cytology at a threshold for abnormal cytology of ASCUS or worse was 81.8% (95% CI = 73.5% to 84.3%) and 57.6% (95% CI = 49.5% to 65.7%), respectively. Repeat cytology that used higher cytologic thresholds yielded substantially lower sensitivity but higher specificity than triage with the Hybrid Capture II assay. The ratio of the sensitivity of the Hybrid Capture II assay to that of repeat cytology at a threshold of ASCUS or worse pooled from the four studies that used both triage tests was 1.16 (95% CI = 1.04 to 1.29). The specificity ratio was not statistically different from unity. CONCLUSION: The published literature indicates that the Hybrid Capture II assay has improved accuracy (higher sensitivity, similar specificity) than the repeat Pap smear using the threshold of ASCUS for an outcome of CIN2+ among women with equivocal cytologic results. The sensitivity of triage at higher cytologic cutoffs is poor.

Adolescent↗