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PubMed2003

Creativity and inductive reasoning: the relationship between divergent thinking and performance on Wasons 246 task.

This study was an investigation of the relationship between potential creativityas measured by fluency scores on the Alternate Uses Testand performance on Wasons 246 task. As hypothesized, participants who were successful in discovering the rule had significantly higher fluency scores. Successful participants also generated higher frequencies of confirmatory and disconfirmatory hypotheses, but a multiple regression analysis using the stepwise method revealed that the frequency of generating disconfirmatory hypotheses and fluency scores were the only two significant factors in task outcome. The results also supported earlier studies where disconfirmation was shown to play a more important role in the later stages of hypothesis testing. This was especially true of successful participants, who employed a higher frequency of disconfirmatory hypotheses after receiving feedback on the first announcement. These results imply that successful participants benefited from the provision of feedback on the first announcement by switching to a more successful strategy in the hypothesis-testing sequence.

Adult↗
PubMed2003

Actual and intended refraction after cataract surgery.

PURPOSE: To demonstrate an analytical method to compare the actual and intended refraction after cataract surgery that allows incorporation of refractive surgical effects. SETTING: Corneal and External Eye Disease Service, Royal Liverpool University Hospital, Liverpool, United Kingdom. METHODS: The actual postoperative refraction was compared to the intended postoperative refraction before and after removal of surgically induced changes in keratometry; that is, the keratometric surgical effect. Application of hypothesis testing is demonstrated using a standardized method of analyzing refractive data; that is, refractive data transformed into the refractive power matrix with calculation of the mean and variance-covariance of the data. RESULTS: The method of analysis demonstrated how surgically induced changes in refractive components can be incorporated into hypothesis testing when comparing intended and actual postoperative refractions. CONCLUSION: Application of the standardized method of analyzing refractive data allows a more accurate evaluation of methods or formulas used to calculate intraocular lens power in cataract surgery.

Biometry↗
PubMed2000

Neoadjuvant and adjuvant therapy for operable hepatocellular carcinoma.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the efficacy and adverse effects of different neoadjuvant and adjuvant therapies compared to surgery alone or surgery and placebo/supportive therapy when given to improve relapse and survival rates for operable hepatocellular carcinoma. SEARCH STRATEGY: Electronic databases, conference proceedings, bibliographies of identified publications. SELECTION CRITERIA: All truly randomised and quasi-randomised clinical trials that compared hepatocellular carcinoma patients who were given and not given neoadjuvant/adjuvant therapy as a supplement to curative liver resection. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Study data was extracted independently by two reviewers and discrepancies were resolved by consensus. A total of eight randomised controlled clinical trials were identified, totaling 548 randomised patients. Seven of the eight trials reported survival and disease-free survival curves and the results of hypothesis testing (log-rank test). The remaining trial reported only the mean survival times. None reported the hazard ratio and only one did a sample size calculation. The survival and disease-free survival curves were compared using their one, two and three-year survival rates, median survival times and the result of the hypothesis tests. MAIN RESULTS: The size of the randomised clinical trials ranged from 40 to 115 subjects. Both preoperative (neoadjuvant) and postoperative (adjuvant), systemic and locoregional (+/- embolization), chemo- and immunotherapy interventions were tested. None were comparable in terms of both treatment regimen and participants selected, so no pooling was done. Only one regimen using preoperative transcatheter arterial chemoembolization with doxorubicin was approximately duplicated. Seven of the eight trials reported no survival benefit from adjuvant therapy. Only one trial reported a statistically significant difference for survival and disease-free survival for the treatment arm, but the results of both its arms were very poor when compared to other studies. Two of the trials that did not report any absolute survival advantage reported statistically significant differences in disease-free survival. Five of the eight trials did not perform intention-to-treat analysis. The highest toxicity rate was in a trial using oral 1-hexylcarbamoyl 5-fluorouracil which resulted in 12 out of 38 subjects stopping because of adverse events. REVIEWER'S CONCLUSIONS: There is no evidence for efficacy of any of the adjuvant protocols reviewed. In order to detect a realistic treatment advantage, larger trials will have to be conducted.

Antineoplastic Agents↗
PubMed2006

Multiscale detection of localized anomalous structure in aggregate disease incidence data.

We present a modelling framework for detection of potentially anomalous structure in aggregate spatial disease incidence data in a manner sensitive to localization at multiple scales and/or positions. The key technical contribution is the re-casting of the components of a multiscale disease mapping methodology, recently introduced by the authors in an earlier paper, into a form appropriate for hypothesis testing. In particular, we describe how hypotheses of spatially clustered variations in disease incidence may be linked in one-to-one correspondence with collections of hypotheses on the values of certain multiscale parameters associated with a user-defined hierarchy of nested partitions of an overall spatial region. A Bayesian hypothesis testing methodology is developed in the context of a standard Poisson measurement model, over the collection of possible multiscale hypotheses. We discuss the specification of hyper parameters and prior distributions on the space of models. The methodology is illustrated on both simulated and real data.

Cluster Analysis↗
PubMed2005

Misuse of statistical tests in Archives of Clinical Neuropsychology publications.

This article reviews the (mis)use of statistical tests in neuropsychology research studies published in the Archives of Clinical Neuropsychology in the years 1990-1992 and 1996-2000, and 2001-2004, prior to, commensurate with the internet-based and paper-based release, and following the release of the American Psychological Association's Task Force on Statistical Inference. The authors focused on four statistical errors: inappropriate use of null hypothesis tests, inappropriate use of P-values, neglect of effect size, and inflation of Type I error rates. Despite the recommendations of the Task Force on Statistical Inference published in 1999, the present study recorded instances of these statistical errors both pre- and post-APA's report, with only the reporting of effect size increasing after the release of the report. Neuropsychologists involved in empirical research should be better aware of the limitations and boundaries of hypothesis testing as well as the theoretical aspects of research methodology.

Bibliometrics↗
PubMed2004

Statistical issues in a modeling approach to assessing bioequivalence or PK similarity with presence of sparsely sampled subjects.

Drug development at different stages may require assessment of similarity of pharmacokinetics (PK). The common approach for such assessment when the difference is drug formulation is bioequivalence (BE), which employs a hypothesis test based on the evaluation of a 90% confidence interval for the ratio of average pharmacokinetic (PK) parameters. The role of formulation effect in BE assessment is replaced by subject population in PK similarity assessment. The traditional approach for BE requires that the PK parameters, primarily AUC and Cmax, be obtained from every individual. Unfortunately in many clinical circumstances, some or even all of the individuals may be sparsely sampled, making the individual evaluation difficult. In such cases, using models, particularly population models, becomes appealing. However, conducting an appropriate statistical test based on population modeling in a form consistent, at least in principle, with traditional 90% confidence interval approach is not so straightforward as it may appear. This manuscript proposes one such approach that can be applied to sparse sampling situations. The approach aims to maintain, as much as possible, the appropriateness of the hypothesis test. It is applied to data from clinical studies to address a need in drug development for assessment of PK similarity in different populations.

Area Under Curve↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Significance of gene ranking for classification of microarray samples.

Many methods for classification and gene selection with microarray data have been developed. These methods usually give a ranking of genes. Evaluating the statistical significance of the gene ranking is important for understanding the results and for further biological investigations, but this question has not been well addressed for machine learning methods in existing works. Here, we address this problem by formulating it in the framework of hypothesis testing and propose a solution based on resampling. The proposed r-test methods convert gene ranking results into position p-values to evaluate the significance of genes. The methods are tested on three real microarray data sets and three simulation data sets with support vector machines as the method of classification and gene selection. The obtained position p-values help to determine the number of genes to be selected and enable scientists to analyze selection results by sophisticated multivariate methods under the same statistical inference paradigm as for simple hypothesis testing methods.

Algorithms↗
PubMed2000

Redressing the power and effect of significance. A new approach to an old problem: teaching statistics to nursing students.

Many barriers to learning are present when teaching research methods. Developing, within students of nursing, the skills of reading and interpreting research reports is vital if the profession is to contribute to the general aim of achieving a sound basis for all health care interventions. This paper overviews the current move toward evidence based practice, the challenges that are present when teaching research to nursing students and offers an approach to teaching quantitative research that will help students of nursing to understand the key concepts that form the basis of inferential statistics. In this work we argue that the traditional emphasis on probability and statistical significance needs to be redressed and that effect size and power should form the basis of teaching students the concepts involved in inferential statistics. We argue that introducing students to the key concepts in statistical decision making in a particular order, effect size then power and lastly statistical significance, will lead to a better understanding of Type I and Type II errors. After all, the purpose of hypothesis testing is to detect a treatment or intervention effect. Power is dependent upon the size of the treatment effect, thus it must be introduced after effect size. Students, we argue, must be able to understand the concept of effect size. We consider this to be a foundational concept that will help to develop a firmer grasp of the decision making processes involved in hypothesis testing. Such an approach will form a more logical approach to teaching this subject and will allow for the use of real world examples to form the basis of learning.

Bias↗
PubMed2004

[Tests of statistical significance in three biomedical journals: a critical review].

OBJECTIVE: To describe the use of conventional tests of statistical significance and the current trends shown by their use in three biomedical journals read in Spanish-speaking countries. METHODS: All descriptive or explanatory original articles published in the five-year period of 1996 through 2000 were reviewed in three journals: Revista Cubana de Medicina General Integral [Cuban Journal of Comprehensive General Medicine], Revista Panamericana de Salud Pública/Pan American Journal of Public Health, and Medicina Clínica [Clinical Medicine] (which is published in Spain). RESULTS: In the three journals that were reviewed various shortcomings were found in their use of hypothesis tests based on P values and in the limited use of new tools that have been suggested for use in their place: confidence intervals (CIs) and Bayesian inference. The basic findings of our research were: minimal use of CIs, as either a complement to significance tests or as the only statistical tool; mentions of a small sample size as a possible explanation for the lack of statistical significance; a predominant use of rigid alpha values; a lack of uniformity in the presentation of results; and improper reference in the research conclusions to the results of hypothesis tests. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate the lack of compliance by authors and editors with accepted standards for the use of tests of statistical significance. The findings also highlight that the stagnant use of these tests continues to be a common practice in the scientific literature.

Periodicals as Topic↗
PubMed1993

An introduction to the Bayesian analysis of clinical trials.

Although most clinical trials comparing therapies are analyzed using classical hypothesis testing and P values, such methods do not yield the information most useful to the clinician, that is, the probability that one treatment is more efficacious than another. Bayesian inference can yield this probability but only if we quantify our prior beliefs about the possible efficacies of the treatments studied. This article gives a brief introduction to Bayesian methods and contrasts them with classical hypothesis testing. It shows that the quantification of prior beliefs is a common and necessary part of the interpretation of clinical information, whether from a laboratory test or published clinical trial. Advantages of Bayesian analysis over classical analysis of clinical trials include the ability to incorporate prior information regarding treatment efficacies into the analysis; the ability to make multiple unscheduled inspections of accumulating data without increasing the error rate of the study; and the ability to calculate the probability that one treatment is more effective than another. Because it is likely that Bayesian methods will be used more often in the analysis of future clinical trials, investigators and readers should be aware of the two schools of statistical thought and the strengths and weaknesses of each.

Bayes Theorem↗
PubMed1989

Testing statistical hypotheses about rat liver foci.

Tests of statistical hypotheses concerning treatment effect on the development of hepatocellular foci can be carried out directly on two-dimensional observations made on histologic sections or on estimates of the density and volume of foci in three dimensions. Inferences about differences in the density or size of foci from tests based on two-dimensional observations, however, can be misleading. This is because both the number of focus cross-sections observed in a tissue section and the percent area occupied by foci can be expressed in terms of the number of foci per unit volume of liver tissue and the mean focus size. As a consequence, a treatment difference may be caused by a difference in the density of foci, their average size, or both. Of more serious concern is the possibility that failure to detect a treatment effect may occur not only when there is no treatment effect but also when the density and size of foci differ between treatments in such a way that their product is unchanged. This can happen if the effect of treatment is to increase the number of foci and decrease their average size, or vice versa. A similar difficulty of interpretation is associated with hypothesis tests based on average focus cross-section area. Tests based on estimates of the number of foci per unit volume and mean focus volume allow direct inference about the quantities of interest, but these estimates are unstable because they have large variances. Empirical estimates of statistical power for the Wilcoxon rank sum test and the t-test from data on control rats suggest power may be limited in experiments with group sizes of ten and low observed numbers of focus cross-sections. If hypothesis tests based on estimates of the density and size of foci are to form the basis for a bioassay, then the power of statistical tests used to identify treatment effects should be investigated.

Animals↗
PubMed2000

Experimental and empirical approaches in the study of aging.

Two approaches to the study of aging are contrasted. The results and implications of the gene-by-gene, hypothetico-deductive molecular genetic approach are compared with studies engendered by unique empirical findings. The former hypothesis-testing approach examines the changing phenotype that results from alterations of the genome and measures the relevance of a gene by the effectiveness with which it alters life-span. Investigations of empirical demographic and physiological puzzles that have come to light in aging studies, examine these phenomena for the broader understanding they bring rather than the knowledge of specific causative genetic elements. While the former hypothesis testing method requires caution in interpretation of results and conclusions, it has been highly informative. Studies of empirical phenomena have necessarily progressed more slowly, but have also yielded substantial gains. Both approaches have advanced the understanding of the aging process from distinctly different but complementary viewpoints.

Aging↗
PubMed2000

Testing the hypothesis of a recombinant origin of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 subtype E.

The human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) epidemic in Southeast Asia has been largely due to the emergence of clade E (HIV-1E). It has been suggested that HIV-1E is derived from a recombinant lineage of subtype A (HIV-1A) and subtype E, with multiple breakpoints along the E genome. We obtained complete genome sequences of clade E viruses from Thailand (93TH057 and 93TH065) and from the Central African Republic (90CF11697 and 90CF4071), increasing the total number of HIV-1E complete genome sequences available to seven. Phylogenetic analysis of complete genomes showed that subtypes A and E are themselves monophyletic, although together they also form a larger monophyletic group. The apparent phylogenetic incongruence at different regions of the genome that was previously taken as evidence of recombination is shown to be not statistically significant. Furthermore, simulations indicate that bootscanning and pairwise distance results, previously used as evidence for recombination, can be misleading, particularly when there are differences in substitution or evolutionary rates across the genomes of different subtypes. Taken jointly, our analyses suggest that there is inadequate support for the hypothesis that subtype E variants are derived from a recombinant lineage. In contrast, many other HIV strains claimed to have a recombinant origin, including viruses for which only a single parental strain was employed for analysis, do indeed satisfy the statistical criteria we propose. Thus, while intersubtype recombinant HIV strains are indeed circulating, the criteria for assigning a recombinant origin to viral structures should include statistical testing of alternative hypotheses to avoid inappropriate assignments that would obscure the true evolutionary properties of these viruses.

Evolution, Molecular↗
PubMed1988

Colonization resistance of the human intestinal microflora: testing the hypothesis in normal volunteers.

Colonization resistance is the mechanism whereby the intestinal microflora protects itself against incursion by new and often harmful microorganisms. Some authors have claimed that colonization resistance is related to the integrity of the anaerobic flora, but this point has not been established in humans. In previous studies in our laboratory cefoxitin, piperacillin, cefoperazone or aztreonam were administered intravenously to healthy volunteers in order to study changes in the intestinal flora and acquisition of new strains. Seven of 16 antibiotic-treated subjects were colonized with gram-negative bacilli, but no correlation was observed between this colonization and the suppression of either anaerobes or any other component of the fecal flora. Marked strains of Escherichia coli and Pseudomonas aeruginosa were also administered by mouth in order to test acquisition of new bacteria. The fed bacteria were found in the stools of both antibiotic-treated and control subjects; the antibiotics had no apparent influence on the ability of these strains to colonize the intestinal tract. Our work, along with findings of others, supports the concept that colonization resistance occurs in humans and is diminished by antibiotic administration. However, it does not support the hypothesis that colonization resistance is related to the anaerobic microflora.

Anti-Bacterial Agents↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Recognition of regions in brain sections.

This paper addresses the problem of region identification in sequential brain sections and presents a recognition system that finds and tracks region boundaries in those sections. The characteristics of the areas of interest are unique in one sense because they are not stationary. Some regions are hardly discernible. In others, parts of the boundary are missing or so completely blurred that parts of the background may be considered as an extension of the region itself. Moreover, outliers are likely to exist in many cases. Due to the unique properties of brain regions, the emphasis is on robustification and efficiency. The region segmentation problem was expressed as a multi-hypothesis test seeking boundaries that maximize a performance criterion which is general in terms of blur and noise. Boundary candidates are restricted to an adaptive search area around a reference boundary which is usually the outcome of the algorithm from the previous section. The search for the maximum criterion uses a fast first order dynamic programing (DP) procedure, reducing the processing time. Outlier rejection techniques are integrated with the multi-hypothesis test to compensate for both outliers and noise. The result is the reference for the next section. Experimental results on boundary detection are presented. The algorithm is successful in tracing boundaries when the contrast is smaller than the noise power, and when parts of the outlines are missing.

Algorithms↗
PubMed1999

Small-sample confidence regions in exponential families.

This article presents an algorithm for small-sample conditional confidence regions for two or more parameters for any discrete regression model in the generalized linear interactive model family. Regions are constructed by careful inversion of conditional hypothesis tests. This method presupposes the use of approximate or exact techniques for enumerating the sample space for some components of the vector of sufficient statistics conditional on other components. Such enumeration may be performed exactly or by exact or approximate Monte Carlo, including the algorithms of Kolassa and Tanner (1994, Journal of the American Statistical Association 89, 697-702; 1999, Biometrics 55, 246-251). This method also assumes that one can compute certain conditional probabilities for a fixed value of the parameter vector. Because of a property of exponential families, one can use this set of conditional probabilities to directly compute the conditional probabilities associated with any other value of the vector of the parameters of interest. This observation dramatically reduces the computational effort required to invert the hypothesis test to obtain the confidence region. To construct a region with confidence level 1 - alpha, the algorithm begins with a grid of values for the parameters of interest. For each parameter vector on the grid (corresponding to the current null hypothesis), one transforms the initial set of conditional probabilities using exponential tilting and then calculates the p value for this current null hypothesis. The confidence region is the set of parameter values for which the p value is at least alpha.

Algorithms↗
PubMed2005

Discontinuous categories affect information-integration but not rule-based category learning.

Three experiments were conducted that provide a direct examination of within-category discontinuity manipulations on the implicit, procedural-based learning and the explicit, hypothesis-testing systems proposed in F. G. Ashby, L. A. Alfonso-Reese, A. U. Turken, and E. M. Waldron's (1998) competition between verbal and implicit systems model. Discontinuous categories adversely affected information-integration but not rule-based category learning. Increasing the magnitude of the discontinuity did not lead to a significant decline in performance. The distance to the bound provides a reasonable description of the generalization profile associated with the hypothesis-testing system, whereas the distance to the bound plus the distance to the trained response region provides a reasonable description of the generalization profile associated with the procedural-based learning system. These results suggest that within-category discontinuity differentially impacts information-integration but not rule-based category learning and provides information regarding the detailed processing characteristics of each category learning system.

Adult↗
PubMed2005

The relationship between initial errorless learning conditions and subsequent performance.

This experiment explores a suggestion by [Maxwell, J.P., Masters, R.S.W., Kerr, E., Weedon, E. (2001). The implicit benefit of learning without errors. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology A 54, 1049-1068] that an initial bout of implicit motor learning confers beneficial performance characteristics, such as robustness under secondary task loading, despite subsequent explicit learning. Participants acquired a complex motor skill (golf putting) over 400 trials. The environment was constrained early in learning to minimize performance error. It was predicted that in the absence of explicit instruction, reducing error would prevent hypothesis testing strategies and the concomitant accrual of declarative (explicit) knowledge, thereby reducing dependence on working memory resources. The effect of an additional cognitive task on putting performance was used to assess reliance on working memory. Putting performance of participants in the Implicit-Explicit condition was unaffected by the additional cognitive load, whereas the performance of Explicit participants deteriorated. The relationship between error correction and episodic verbal reports suggested that the explicit group were involved in more hypothesis testing behaviours than the Implicit-Explicit group early in learning. It was concluded that a constrained, uninstructed, environment early in learning, results in procedurally based motor output unencumbered by disadvantages associated with working memory control.

Adult↗