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E.H. Christopherson Lecture: lessons for the United States From the Worldwide Child Survival Revolution.

It is time to apply in the United States' principles that are emerging from a series of World Summits and United Nations Conference on Children, Environment, Population, Women, and Social Development. After years of top-down programs supported by international agencies, which have made some significant contributions in promoting activities such as childhood immunization but are having problems of sustainability, we need to focus now on integrated human development. The past tendency in international assistance to concentrate on economic development has not helped the people in greatest need. There is growing realization that what improves the quality of life most is what people do for themselves. Sustainability requires social mobilization at the local level. There are thousands of integrated, social development projects around the world that demonstrate the power of community-based, participatory approaches and we know how such local programs can be made to work under any political or economic system. What we haven't learned is how to "go to scale" in extending such projects to cover larger populations. A promising approach seems to be using successful local projects upgraded into Centers for Action Learning to promote the adaptation of science-based innovations to everyday life in a whole region of a country.

Child↗

Projections of global mortality and burden of disease from 2002 to 2030.

BACKGROUND: Global and regional projections of mortality and burden of disease by cause for the years 2000, 2010, and 2030 were published by Murray and Lopez in 1996 as part of the Global Burden of Disease project. These projections, which are based on 1990 data, continue to be widely quoted, although they are substantially outdated; in particular, they substantially underestimated the spread of HIV/AIDS. To address the widespread demand for information on likely future trends in global health, and thereby to support international health policy and priority setting, we have prepared new projections of mortality and burden of disease to 2030 starting from World Health Organization estimates of mortality and burden of disease for 2002. This paper describes the methods, assumptions, input data, and results. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Relatively simple models were used to project future health trends under three scenarios-baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic-based largely on projections of economic and social development, and using the historically observed relationships of these with cause-specific mortality rates. Data inputs have been updated to take account of the greater availability of death registration data and the latest available projections for HIV/AIDS, income, human capital, tobacco smoking, body mass index, and other inputs. In all three scenarios there is a dramatic shift in the distribution of deaths from younger to older ages and from communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional causes to noncommunicable disease causes. The risk of death for children younger than 5 y is projected to fall by nearly 50% in the baseline scenario between 2002 and 2030. The proportion of deaths due to noncommunicable disease is projected to rise from 59% in 2002 to 69% in 2030. Global HIV/AIDS deaths are projected to rise from 2.8 million in 2002 to 6.5 million in 2030 under the baseline scenario, which assumes coverage with antiretroviral drugs reaches 80% by 2012. Under the optimistic scenario, which also assumes increased prevention activity, HIV/AIDS deaths are projected to drop to 3.7 million in 2030. Total tobacco-attributable deaths are projected to rise from 5.4 million in 2005 to 6.4 million in 2015 and 8.3 million in 2030 under our baseline scenario. Tobacco is projected to kill 50% more people in 2015 than HIV/AIDS, and to be responsible for 10% of all deaths globally. The three leading causes of burden of disease in 2030 are projected to include HIV/AIDS, unipolar depressive disorders, and ischaemic heart disease in the baseline and pessimistic scenarios. Road traffic accidents are the fourth leading cause in the baseline scenario, and the third leading cause ahead of ischaemic heart disease in the optimistic scenario. Under the baseline scenario, HIV/AIDS becomes the leading cause of burden of disease in middle- and low-income countries by 2015. CONCLUSIONS: These projections represent a set of three visions of the future for population health, based on certain explicit assumptions. Despite the wide uncertainty ranges around future projections, they enable us to appreciate better the implications for health and health policy of currently observed trends, and the likely impact of fairly certain future trends, such as the ageing of the population, the continued spread of HIV/AIDS in many regions, and the continuation of the epidemiological transition in developing countries. The results depend strongly on the assumption that future mortality trends in poor countries will have a relationship to economic and social development similar to those that have occurred in the higher-income countries.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗

The influence of age and gender on drug use in the United Kingdom--a review.

The aim of this study is to review UK epidemiological research in light of studies on the influence of age and gender on drug use in young people. Literature for this review came from English language publications using a structured search strategy. Within the UK, drug use is commoner in young males than other population groups. When integrated social development models are employed, drug use is seen to be determined by the complex interaction of factors such as age, parental monitoring, and peer group associations. Suggested research directions include combining structural equation modeling with large-scale, UK-based longitudinal social development model studies to develop prevention and intervention efforts that are sensitive to the role of individual, social, and cultural factors.

Adolescent↗

Teen births, income inequality, and social capital: developing an understanding of the causal pathway.

Many studies have demonstrated a relationship between income inequality and poor health, but how does income inequality impact health? One possible explanation is that greater income inequality undermines social capital (social cohesion, civic engagement, and mutual trust in a community). We conducted path analyses of the relationship between income inequality, poverty, and teen birth rate, testing for the mediating effect of social capital in 39 US states. Birth rate was affected by both poverty and income inequality, though income inequality appeared to affect teen birth rate primarily through its impact on social capital.

Adolescent↗

The behavior inventory for rating development (BIRD): assessments of reliability and factorial validity.

In an earlier investigation (Sparrow & Cicchetti, 1978) the authors assessed the reliability and validity of a new instrument for assessing types and levels of adaptive behaviors. Although there was strong evidence for both, the sample was small (N = less than or equal to 45) and consisted only of institutionalized mentally retarded children. The current investigation included a much larger sample of non-institutionalized mentally retarded and other developmentally disabled subjects. As previously, results indicated reliability levels between "good" and "excellent" for most items (e.g., the criteria of Cicchetti & Sparrow, 1981). Also, factor analyses were performed to determine the correlation between the resulting factors and an a priori classification of the BIRD into several areas (subscales) of adaptive behavior (Cognitive Development, Self-Help, Physical Development, Social Behavior, Self-Control). As before, a 4 factor oblique solution was interpretable in terms of a 4 subscale classification of BIRD items (Cognitive Development, Physical Development, Social Behavior, and Self-Control).

Adolescent↗

Long-term psychological consequences of childhood frontal lobe lesion in patient DT.

Patient DT was examined 26 years after she acquired focal frontal lobe damage at 7 years of age. This report focused on several aspects of psychological outcome, including the empirical study of social development into early adulthood. Standardized measures of empathy, psychosocial development, and personality were analyzed, along with a moral judgment interview and patterns of adult social behavior. Results indicated that DT has a very limited capacity for empathic understanding, inadequate identity development, difficulties in vocational adjustment, and a concrete level of moral reasoning. Her social behavior and profile of test scores suggest that social development and adaptation have been arrested at early adolescent levels. We conclude that early frontal lobe damage has profound effects on social development, and that the frontal lobes provide a crucial neural substrate for social maturation.

Adaptation, Psychological↗

[Surgery of epilepsy in children: who, when, how, and why].

About 25% of epileptic patients continue to suffer from seizures despite adequate anticonvulsant therapy; they are pharmacoresistant. In these patients, the seizures may have a functional impact on their life and render them candidates to epilepsy surgery. Over the past 50 years, epilepsy surgery has been developed and popularized. In the last 15 years, it has been applied to the pediatric epilepsy population. Resistant epilepsy, often catastrophic in children, has important and bad consequences on the intellectual and social development, and may cause secondary brain damage. It is after a presurgical evaluation, aiming at a better comprehension of the epileptic problem as to its origin, propagation and functional impact on the child's psychomotor and social development, that a decision as to the surgical indication can be made. The neurosurgeon has different surgical therapeutic strategies, varying according to the type of epilepsy, the anatomical regions involved and the eventual post-operative functional impact. Thirty children have so far had the benefit of epilepsy surgery in the romand epilepsy surgical program. Multiple surgical techniques have been applied: lesionectomy, lobectomy, cortectomy, hemispherotomy, stereoelectroencephalography, subdural electrodes. The pathological substrate in paediatric epilepsy surgery is often related to cerebral developmental abnormalities. More than 75% of operated children have remained seizure free since surgery and many are on reduced medication. Subsequently to seizure cessation and reduction of medication, improvement in cognitive functions, behaviour and social integration can be witness. In some pharmacoresistant epilepsy of childhood, epilepsy surgery should not be considered the treatment of last resort, but rather the treatment of choice.

Adolescent↗

The development of social structure during the primary socialization period in German shepherds.

The ontogeny of primary socialization in a litter of 5 German shepherd puppies was investigated using both arena tests and rearing environment (kennel) conditions. Tests for exploratory behavior, conducted at 5 1/2, 8 1/2, and 11 1/2 weeks of age, showed reversals in amount of exploration over the 6-week period. Dominance was also investigated at 5 1/2, 8 1/2, and 11 1/2 weeks, using both a bone-in-pen test and a rearing environment setting. By comparison of the subjects' dominance scores at each age for both settings, evidence was found for the separation of the development of dominance behavior into 2 kinds: competitive and social dominance. The scores for exploratory behavior (stimulus reactivity) and competitive dominance were clearly related: those pups at 5 1/2, 8 1/1, and 11 1/2 weeks that were most exploratory also ranked highest for competitive dominance.

Age Factors↗

[The reduction of the HIV vulnerability of women involved in the sex business in Ukraine through social mobilization and the creation of self-support networks].

The importance of making plans on projects and measures, aimed at the prevention of HIV infection and the social development of female sex workers (FSW) with due regard to observing the principles of human rights protection, is discussed. The materials and resolutions of the First International Conference "Social Development of HIV-Vulnerable Groups of Population", held of Kiev on December 26, 1998, are presented. The conference was attended by representatives of state and public organizations, specialists on the organization of the prevention of HIV and sexually transmitted diseases among FSW, lawyers, physicians and representatives of the HIV-vulnerable target group (FSW) from 7 Ukrainian cities and from Belarus. All these activities contributed to the implementation of the Project "FSW Network Initiative with NGOs" in 11 Ukrainian cities, starting from September 1999, with the support of UNAIDS. The possibility of the mobilization of FSW for organizing self-support groups with a view to protect their rights and to take themselves measures for HIV/AIDS prevention among FSW is shown.

Disease Susceptibility↗

Rhythms of dialogue in infancy: coordinated timing in development.

Although theories of early social development emphasize the advantage of mother-infant rhythmic coupling and bidirectional coordination, empirical demonstrations remain sparse. We therefore test the hypothesis that vocal rhythm coordination at age 4 months predicts attachment and cognition at age 12 months. Partner and site novelty were studied by recording mother-infant, stranger-infant, and mother-stranger face-to-face interactions in both home and laboratory sites for 88 4-month-old infants, for a total of 410 recordings. An automated dialogic coding scheme, appropriate to the nonperiodic rhythms of our data, implemented a systems concept of every action as jointly produced by both partners. Adult-infant coordination at age 4 months indeed predicted both outcomes at age 12 months, but midrange degree of mother-infant and stranger-infant coordination was optimal for attachment (Strange Situation), whereas high ("tight") stranger-infant coordination in the lab was optimal for cognition (Bayley Scales). Thus, high coordination can index more or less optimal outcomes, as a function of outcome measure, partner, and site. Bidirectional coordination patterns were salient in both attachment and cognition predictions. Comparison of mother-infant and stranger-infant interactions was particularly informative, suggesting the dynamics of infants' early differentiation from mothers. Stranger and infant showed different patterns of vocal rhythm activity level, were more bidirectional, accounted for 8 times more variance in Bayley scores, predicted attachment just as well as mother and infant, and revealed more varied contingency structures and a wider range of attachment outcomes. To explain why vocal timing measures at age 4 months predict outcomes at age 12 months, our dialogue model was construed as containing procedures for regulating the pragmatics of proto-conversation. The timing patterns of the 4-month-olds were seen as procedural or performance knowledge, and as precursors of various kinesic patterns in the outcomes of 12-month-olds. Thus, our work further defines a fundamental dyadic timing matrix--a system that guides the trajectory of relatedness, informing all relational theories of development.

Child Development↗

Social experiences of hearing-impaired high school youth.

The purpose of the present study is to investigate the reasons why hearing-impaired students describe their high school experiences as positive or negative and to identify the specific classroom dynamics that contribute to or detract from social development. Data were collected from 49 hearing-impaired undergraduate students who were asked to describe their high school experiences on an open-ended questionnaire with a follow-up interview. The results indicated that graduates of residential programs described their social experiences significantly more positively than graduates of mainstream programs. Reasons included their teachers' ability to sign, socializing with friends and participation in after-school activities. Positive feelings in mainstream programs were associated with such factors as availability of supportive services, ability to voice and lipread, parent involvement, encouragement of interaction and deaf awareness by the teachers. Mainstream students who had the benefit of supportive services reported different perceptions of supportiveness of the academic environment and of teachers' expectations than did those who had no such services in high schools. Implications are drawn for the improved academic and social development of hearing-impaired high school students.

Adolescent↗

Maternal support networks, maternal cognitions, and young children's social and cognitive development.

The relations among maternal support networks, maternal perceptions of parenting, maternal attributions for parenting situations, and children's social development, as indexed by peer acceptance, and cognitive performance, as indexed by the PPVT-R and PSI, were examined in a sample of 69 mothers and their preschool-age children. Network characteristics directly predicted cognitive performance and indirectly predicted peer acceptance through effects on maternal perceptions and attributions. Parent cognitions as mediators of network effects on children's development are discussed, addressing variation due to network dimensions, types of parent cognitions, and domain of children's development.

Child↗