Search PubMed⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search PubMed

Results for “Population Projection”

Search indexed PubMed citations on genomics, clinical trials, systematic reviews and public health. Explore titles, authors and supplied subject terms, then open the PubMed record.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 487 records · Page 27Linked to original sources
PubMed2001

[Projections in the incidence of dementia in Austria for the years 1951 to 2050].

Because of the increasing life expectancy it is generally assumed that the number of demented individuals will steeply rise in the next decades. Dementia is a main reason for requiring extensive nursing care. Therefore, estimations of the future number of demented subjects in Austria are necessary for planning appropriate services. Since the age structure of the Austrian population has already changed during the last decades, the development of the number of demented individuals during the last five decades is compared with the estimations for the next five decades. These estimations are based on the population projections for Austria and on all available international meta-analyses of prevalence and incidence surveys. Estimations of the number of people suffering from dementia and of those developing dementia within one year are presented for the period between 1951 and 2050. In 1951, the number of dementia sufferers was 35,500; by 2050 this number will increase to 233,800. At present, 90,500 elderly people with dementia live in Austria. Thus, in the next decades, the number of people suffering from dementia will rise more steeply than the in the past. If the projected life expectancy leads to a prolonged duration of illness the number of dementia sufferers will be markedly higher. On the other hand, the working force will decrease in the next decades. Therefore, while in 1951 there were 120 employable persons per demented person, in 2050 there will be only 17 employable persons per demented person. Extensive planning of the future care of demented people is an urgent necessity.

Aged↗
PubMed2002

Changes in hip fracture epidemiology: redistribution between ages, genders and fracture types.

After several reports of increasing hip fracture incidence some studies have suggested a trend-break. In a previous study of hip fractures we forecast a 70% increase in the total number of fractures from 1985 up to year 2000. We therefore studied the incidence trend for the last 15 years and supply a new prognosis up to year 2010. We recorded all incident hip fractures treated in the county of Ostergötland, Sweden (approximately 400,000 inhabitants) 1982-96. A total of 11,517 hip fractures in men and women aged 50 years and above were included in the study after cross-validation between a computerized register of radiologic investigations and the hospital records. The projected number of fractures up to year 2010 was estimated by a Poisson regression model, considering both age and year of fracture in every single year 1982-96 for the respective fracture type and gender, and applied to the projected population. The annual number of hip fractures increased by 39% in men and 25% in women during the study period. Amongst men, the age-adjusted incidence of cervical fractures increased from 188 to 220/100,000 and of trochanteric fractures from 138 to 170/100,000. In women the incidence of cervical fractures decreased from 462/100,000 to 418/100,000 and of trochanteric fractures from 407/100,000 to 361/100,000. Cervical/trochanteric fracture incidence rate ratio leveled off, and also the female/male fracture rate ratio declined. A prognosis assuming that the incidence development will continue as during 1982-96, and a population in agreement with the forecast, predicts that the total age- and sex-adjusted number of hip fractures will decrease by 11% up to year 2010 compared with 1996. In women and men, however, a decrease of 19% and an increase of 7% respectively were projected. If the age- and sex-specific incidence remains at the same level as at the end of the study period, no significant change in the total numbers will occur. A trend-break was thus found in hip fracture incidence for women but not for men. Whether this is due to therapeutic and/or preventive measures in women is unknown. According to the most probable scenario a substantial increase in male trochanteric fractures (36%) is expected up to 2010, while all other hip fractures in both genders will decrease by 4-32% resulting in a total reduction of 11%.

Age Distribution↗
PubMed1985

Intracortical connections of the anterior ectosylvian and lateral suprasylvian visual areas in the cat.

Intra- and interhemispheric connections between the anterior ectosylvian visual area (AEV) and other visual cortical areas including the lateral suprasylvian (LSS) were examined in the cat using the retrograde double-label fluorescence technique. The areal and laminar distributions of labeled neurons were mapped following injections of different tracers: Evans Blue (EB), Fast Blue (FB) and Nuclear Yellow (NY) made separately into AEV and LSS of the same or opposite hemispheres. The results indicated: (1) reciprocal and bilateral AEV-LSS connections stemming from layers V and VI in addition to a predominant efferent LSS projection upon AEV from both layer III and the posterior lateral (PLLS) subdivision of LSS; (2) homotopic interhemispheric connections to AEV arising from layers III, V and VI and from layers III and V of ipsilateral areas 20 and 21a; (3) differential laminar distributions of the cell populations projecting to the two cortical sites injected including neurons in layer III of LSS which project to contralateral LSS and AEV of either hemisphere via collateral axon branching (double-labeled). The anatomical findings support the functional similarities between AEV and LSS and the possible role of AEV in interhemispheric transfer of visual information is discussed.

Animals↗
PubMed2005

The PDAPP mouse model of Alzheimer's disease: locus coeruleus neuronal shrinkage.

Alzheimer's disease is characterized by neuronal degeneration in the cerebral cortex and hippocampus and subcortical neuronal degeneration in such nuclei as the locus coeruleus (LC). Transgenic mice overexpressing mutant human amyloid precursor protein V717F, PDAPP mice, develop several Alzheimer's disease-like lesions. The present study sought to determine whether there is also loss of LC noradrenergic neurons or evidence of degenerative changes in these animals. PDAPP hemizygous and wild-type littermate control mice were examined at 23 months of age, at a time when there are numerous amyloid-beta (Abeta) plaques in the neocortex and hippocampus. Tissue sections were stained immunohistochemically with an antibody against tyrosine hydroxylase (TH) to identify LC neurons. Computer imaging procedures were used to count the TH-immunoreactive somata in sections through the rostral-caudal extent of the nucleus. There was no loss of LC neurons in the hemizygous mice. In a second experiment, homozygous PDAPP and wild-type mice were examined, at 2 months and 24 months of age. Again there was no age-related loss of neurons in the homozygous animals. In the portion of the LC where neurons reside that project to the cortex and hippocampus, however, the neurons were decreased in size selectively in the 24-month-old transgenic animals. These data indicate that overt LC cell loss does not occur following abundant overexpression of Abeta peptide. However, the selective size reduction of the LC neuronal population projecting to cortical and hippocampal regions containing Abeta-related neuropathology implies that these cells may be subjected to a retrograde-mediated stress.

Alzheimer Disease↗
PubMed1988

A prediction model of suicide among youth.

Epidemiological relationships were studied between adolescent (ages 15 to 24 years) suicide rates and population shifts among adolescents. Suicide rates among adolescents tripled from 1956 to 1977 and have subsequently leveled off. Increases (and decreases) in adolescent suicide rates corresponded to increases (and decreases, respectively) in the proportion of adolescents in the United States. Opposite trends have been found among older age groups. Projected population fluctuations were used to predict trends in adolescent suicide rates to the year 2000: the current decrease in rates is predicted to continue until the mid-1990s. Recent data indicating a decrease in adolescent suicide rates tend to support the population model hypothesis. The data suggest that demographic variables may be of explanatory and predictive use in understanding the epidemiological trends of suicide. Early intervention and prevention strategies emerge from this model, and various social, public health, and research implications exist. However, the results must be viewed with caution because of the methodological problems inherent in using national mortality data, the possibility that other variables may account for the observed relationships, and the length of time required to test such prospective epidemiological propositions.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1993

Expression of AMPA-selective glutamate receptor subunits in morphologically defined neurons of the mammalian cochlear nucleus.

Glutamate and related amino acids mediate fast excitatory neurotransmission in the vertebrate CNS via ligand-gated cationic channels in the neuronal membrane. These channels are composed of different subunits that assemble into a functional receptor/channel complex. Although studies have shown that these subunits are differentially expressed in neurons, few studies have quantitatively addressed the cell-specific expression of glutamate subunits in relation to known glutamatergic pathways. In the vertebrate auditory system, glutamate is the proposed neurotransmitter of the auditory nerve and parallel fiber pathways. In situ hybridization histochemistry was used to localize AMPA-selective glutamate receptor subunit mRNAs in seven cell types of the rat cochlear nucleus. GluR1-GluR4 AMPA-selective subunits were all expressed in cochlear nucleus neurons; however, the subunits expressed in identified cells varied with the cell type. Granule cells, previously not known to receive glutamatergic input, expressed GluR2 and GluR4 subunits. Cartwheel and stellate interneurons in the dorsal cochlear nucleus, which receive parallel fiber input, expressed all four subunits. Neurons receiving synaptic input from the auditory nerve, including globular, round, spherical, and fusiform cells, expressed GluR2, GluR3, and GluR4 subunits. Furthermore, a subpopulation of round cells in the ventral cochlear nucleus, and fusiform cells in the dorsal cochlear nucleus, expressed the GluR3 subunit at greatly reduced levels compared to neighboring cells. The results confirm the auditory nerve and parallel fiber pathways as glutamatergic and identify a third synaptic population, projecting to granule cells, which is likely glutamatergic. The data suggest that the composition of GluR1-GluR4 subunits on neurons in the cochlear nucleus may be related to presynaptic input; moreover, heterogeneous patterns of expression of the GluR3 subunit, in addition, suggest that variability in mRNA levels within one population of morphologically defined cells is present.

Animals↗
PubMed2001

United Kingdom population trends in the 21st century.

This article considers the likely trends in population size, age structure and potential support ratios in the United Kingdom over the coming century. The extent to which these trends could be modified by changes in fertility or migration levels is examined. The findings of a recent United Nations report on 'Replacement Migration' are also considered in the light of the Government Actuary's official population projections for the United Kingdom' together with new projection scenarios prepared specially for this article.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2004

Time to death and health expenditure: an improved model for the impact of demographic change on health care costs.

BACKGROUND: Obtaining well-founded estimates of the effect of demographic change on future health expenditures is a pressing issue in all developed countries. Thus far, expenditure projections have examined the effect of age on health care costs, but fail to account for the influence of remaining life expectancy on costs. OBJECTIVE: This paper seeks to create a more accurate projection model that considers the concentration of costs towards the end of life, and to compare this model with the more traditional approach that holds age- and sex-specific per capita expenditures constant. METHODS: We used a longitudinal hospital dataset which followed 90 929 patients aged 65 and older from 1970 to death, to create an economic model of hospital costs based on patient age and time remaining to death. We then applied the model to England population projections to predict the effect of demographic changes on hospital expenditures from 2002 to 2026. RESULTS: The decline in age-specific mortality rates over time postpones death to later ages, pushing back death-related costs. Accounting for this in expenditure projections gave a predicted annual growth rate of 0.40%-half of the rate predicted with a traditional method. CONCLUSIONS: Using richer data and more refined methods than have hitherto been employed, this study strongly confirms that the pressure of population increases and ageing demographic structure on hospital expenditures will be partially countered by the postponement of death-related hospital costs to later in life-a finding consistent with emerging epidemiological evidence, and heartening for policy makers and physicians alike.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1997

[Health of Brazilian elderly just before of the 21st century: current problems, forecasts and alternatives].

Current characteristics and perspectives of Brazilian demographic and epidemiological transition processes are analyzed. Results from the 1991, 1993, 1995 and 1996 censuses, new population projections and recent studies on socioeconomic and health profiles of elderly people of S. Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Belo Horizonte are discussed. In 1995, estimated life expectancy at birth in Brazil was already over 67 years. The number of individuals aged 60 years and older--in 1995, 8.3%, of the total population--is expected to duplicate and probably stabilize by the year 2050. Yet lacking coverage and quality, health services are already burdened with degenerative diseases and mental disorders, frequent outpatient appointments, high hospital bed occupation and high costs. Functional impairment and self-reported diseases are related to poverty among the elderly. for whom social and health support are not properly provided. Support from informal caregivers becomes more difficult due to impoverishment, family size reduction and youth migration. Institutionalization remains a poor approach as scarcity of beds and inadequacy of staff preclude its utilization. To minimize the impact of population aging on health services, it is proposed that effective programs covering the control of degenerative diseases and the prevention of their complications should be implemented--for the elderly population too. The importance of physical exercise, screening for neoplastic diseases, immunization, prevention of fractures caused by falls and early diagnosis of depression and dementia is emphasized. Actions must be coordinated by primary health care units, oriented towards local needs. It is essential to maintain the elderly in adequate, productive activities, invest in young people's education and health and in social and medical support programs for the caregivers.

Aged↗
PubMed2002

The burden of restorative dental treatment for children in Third World countries.

OBJECTIVE: To analyse whether developing countries have sufficient health dollars to treat existing diseases in general and dental caries in particular in their child population. METHODS: Assessments of the costs of treating existing and future caries by the conventional approach. Analysis of WHO dental databases and spreadsheet calculations of costs based upon population projections, prevalence and trends in patterns of caries. FINDINGS: Even though the caries levels are low and most of the disease occurs on the occlusal and the buccal/lingual surfaces, more than 90% of the dental caries remains untreated in Third World countries. Calculations reveal that to restore the permanent dentition of the child population of low-income nations using traditional amalgam restorative dentistry would cost between pounds 1,024 ($US1618) and pounds 2,224 ($US3513) per 1,000 children of mixed ages from 6 to 18 years. This exceeds the available resources for the provision of an essential public health care package for the children of 15 to 29 low-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: To treat caries with the traditional method of restorative dentistry is beyond the financial capabilities of the majority of low-income nations, as three-quarters of these countries do not even have sufficient resources to finance an essential package of health care services for their children.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1988

Projecting the older population of the United States: lessons from the past and prospects for the future.

Projections of future populations are fraught with uncertainties based on past fertility and immigration trends, and assumptions about medical science and lifestyles. The U.S. Census Bureau and the Social Security Administration may be unduly cautious in their assumption that the mortality decline of the past two decades cannot continue; it may be sustained for the next half century. Alternative assumptions about rates of mortality and morbidity all indicate that the needs for health services, institutionalization, and home care of the disabled elderly--especially among the oldest old--will make ever greater relative and absolute demands on the nation's health care resources.

Aged↗
PubMed1986

The topographical organization of neurons in the rat medial frontal, insular and olfactory cortex projecting to the solitary nucleus, olfactory bulb, periaqueductal gray and superior colliculus.

In 19 rats two different retrograde tracers (Fast Blue, Diamidino Yellow, Rhodamine-labeled latex microspheres, or wheat germ agglutinin conjugated with HRP) were injected into the solitary nucleus (NTS) and either the olfactory bulb (OB), periaqueductal gray (PAG) or superior colliculus (SC). The pattern of retrogradely labeled neurons in the medial frontal, insular and olfactory cortices was examined to determine the topographical organization of the cell populations projecting to these subcortical targets and the extent to which they overlapped. In the medial frontal cortex (MFC) SC projections originated most dorsally, while NTS and OB projections originated most ventrally and exhibited slight overlap. PAG projections originated from virtually the entire MFC and overlapped with cells projecting to the OB, NTS and SC. These results are consistent with the role of dorsal MFC as the rat's frontal eye field and the ventral MFC as a visceral motor area. Laterally, in the insular cortex there was virtually complete overlap between cells projecting to the NTS and PAG. The extensive overlap of PAG projections with NTS projections medially and laterally and with SC projections medially suggests the PAG is involved in a variety of brain visceral and somatic functions. In the piriform cortex there was overlap between cells projecting to the OB and cells projecting to the SC; the cells projecting to the SC were located in the endopiriform nucleus, and may provide a substrate for orienting responses to odors.

Animals↗
PubMed2005

The demographic situation in the European Union.

This article is an update of a similar article published in Population Trends 104 and complements the article on European-wide issues in population statistics, published in Population Trends 118. The main areas of demography are covered, namely population change, population composition, fertility and mortality. Eurostat are currently working on a new set of population projections which should be available shortly, but were not completed when this article was drafted.

Birth Rate↗
PubMed2001

Modelling physical activity: a multi-state life-table approach.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a consistent set of epidemiological estimates (incidence, prevalence, remission, mortality) for physical activity in New Zealand; project these estimates in the light of demographic trends; and predict the effectiveness of different health promotion strategies. METHOD: Multi-state life tables were constructed using physical inactivity prevalence data from the 1996/97 New Zealand Health Survey, and estimates of the relative risk of mortality, and of remission rates, from the literature. Statistics New Zealand population projections were used to forecast these multi-state life tables to 2021. Two physical activity health promotion strategies -uptake (remission enhancement) and maintenance (incidence or relapse reduction)--were simulated by changing the relevant epidemiological variables. RESULTS: The current fatal burden of physical inactivity in New Zealand is estimated to be 2,600 deaths per year (9% of all deaths). By 2021, the prevalence of physical inactivity will rise 4% as a result of demographic trends. Relapse reduction (enabling active people to remain active) is about 50% more effective than uptake enhancement (enabling inactive people to become active) as a physical activity health promotion strategy, but the two approaches are additive. Maximum realistic changes in relapse prevention and uptake enhancement could reduce the prevalence of physical inactivity by about 30%. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Multi-state life table methods can be used to model health risks (such as behaviours), as well as (chronic) diseases. The model has provided valuable insights for policy makers into the burden of physical inactivity in New Zealand, the impact of demographic trends, and the relative effectiveness of different health promotion strategies.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1999

Anterograde tracing and immunohistochemical characterization of potentially mechanosensitive vagal afferents in the esophagus.

Vagal mechanosensitive afferents with an important functional role in esophageal peristalsis are well known from physiological studies. It is not known whether these fibers represent a separate subpopulation among all vagal afferents projecting to the esophageal wall. A morphological and immunohistochemical description of vagal afferents was undertaken to define their possible homo- or heterogeneity. The peripheral projections of vagal afferents were anterogradely labeled by injection of wheatgerm agglutinin conjugated to horseradish peroxidase into the nodose ganglion of rats. The anterogradely transported tracer was detected by tyramide amplification in conjunction with immunohistochemistry for Ca(2+)-binding proteins recently identified in different types of mechanosensory endings. It was found that vagal afferents represented a morphologically and structurally homogeneous population projecting to the myenteric ganglia of the esophagus, where they terminated as highly branched endings. Vagal afferent terminals, however, were different in their staining intensity for calretinin and calbindin, which ranged from intense to no detectable immunofluorescence. The fluorescence intensity of Ca(2+)-binding proteins within the vagal terminating branches was graded and the average staining intensity determined of all terminating branches in the upper, middle, and lower thirds of the esophagus. The average staining intensity was highest in the upper third of the esophagus and then declined in a statistically significant manner in the middle and lower thirds. This result suggests different requirements for intracellular Ca(2+)-buffering capacities in vagal afferents depending on their position along the esophageal axis and corroborates studies reporting a segmental organization of esophageal motility. Immunohistochemical evidence of substance P (SP) in a subset of vagal terminals was demonstrated. Hence, an effector role of vagal afferents on esophageal peristalsis by the release of SP, as has been proposed by physiological studies, is also supported by immunohistochemical data.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

The obesity-driven rising costs of type 2 diabetes in Australia: projections from the Fremantle Diabetes Study.

BACKGROUND: The cost of diabetes is high for both the individual and society. Future health-care planning requires patient-level diabetes-attributable health-care cost data that have not previously been available for Australia. AIM: To determine Australian national direct diabetes-attributable health-care costs for known type 2 diabetes in 2000 and project these to 2051. METHODS: A total of 1294 patients with type 2 diabetes was recruited to the Fremantle Diabetes Study between 1993 and 1996. A bottom-up, prevalence-based approach using diabetes-attributable costs provided average annual per patient health-care costs (in year 2000 A$). Costs were extrapolated to 2051 using Australian type 2 diabetes prevalence figures and Australian Bureau of Statistics population projections, assuming that prevalence rates (i) remain at current levels and (ii) rise steadily. RESULTS: Total annual direct diabetes-attributable health-care costs in 2000 in Australia for people > or =25 years with known type 2 diabetes were estimated at A$636 million. As a result of ageing, the number of people with type 2 diabetes will double between 2000 and 2051 with a 2.5-fold increase in diabetes-attributable health-care costs. If obesity and inactivity prevalence rates continue to rise, prevalence rates of type 2 diabetes will further increase. The number of people with type 2 diabetes in 2051 may be 3.5 times higher than in 2000 with a 3.7-fold cost increase. CONCLUSIONS: The financial burden of treating type 2 diabetes could quadruple by 2051 unless more is done to prevent type 2 diabetes and its complications. A smaller proportion of the population will have the capacity to fund these rising health-care costs.

Adult↗
PubMedDate not supplied

A more diversified America: state and local population changes, 1990-1997.

Recently, the U.S. Bureau of the Census released state and county population estimates with age, gender, race and Hispanic origin detail for 1990-1997. These estimates illustrate the changing demographics of the United States. The 1997 state population estimates show that both Texas and Georgia experienced notable population growth since 1990. Texas replaced New York as the second largest state; Georgia bumped North Carolina from the list of top 10 most populous states to become the state with the 10th largest population. In both Texas and Georgia, migration flows have contributed to the population change. Texas is one of the most popular "intended states of residence" for international migrants, many coming from Latin American countries. On the other hand, Georgia's growth has largely been influenced by "rustbelt" to "sunbelt" domestic migration. At the county level, the largest total population increases again occurred in western and southern states. Population estimates for Asian and Pacific Islanders show that this population remained concentrated in the West in 1997. Similarly, the Hispanic population is primarily concentrated in southwestern states. However, as the Asian and Pacific Islander and Hispanic populations continue to grow, there is spillover into other regions, primarily the larger metropolitan areas in the South, including Washington, DC, and Atlanta, GA. The population projections produced by the Census Bureau indicate that racial and ethnic diversity will continue to increase in the United States well into the next century.

Asia↗
PubMed2005

Physiologic alterations of oral mucosa due to aging: a review.

The Brazilian population, despite Brazil being considered a "country of young people", is undergoing an aging process entailed by a decline in the fertility and mortality rates. In the year 2000, seniors accounted for about 5.85% of the Brazilian, and population projections for 2025 estimate that the group will reach 14% by that time. Oral mucosa has a function of providing a barrier and promoting immune and inflammatory responses, thus protecting the body. During the aging process, those functions deteriorate, allowing the action of predisposing agents. There is thus the need of better knowledge of the conditions of oral health in the Brazilian population, allowing for adoption of preventive measures. Oral cavity examination should be routinely performed in the elderly on a yearly basis, as a preventive measure which would reduce the morbidity and mortality in this population.

Aging↗