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[Influence of changes in climate and the calendar on the onset of a migraine crisis].

Several factors have been demonstrated to play a role in triggering acute episode of migraine headache. On the basis of observation, others have been suggested but not confirmed. Variations in climate are among the latter. Over a one-year period, we observed a population of 304 patients with migraine residing in a precise climatic zone. The frequency of acute episodes could be analyzed for 148 among them. There were 4,421 acute episodes recorded during the year. The periodicity during the year was compared with climate parameters: temperature (maximal, minimal, average), wind (force and direction), atmospheric pressure, rain, sunshine, relative humidity, and icy, foggy and stormy weather. Moon cycles were also assessed. No correlations were found between climate parameters or variations there of and onset of migraine. Variations in climate would thus appear to have no effect on migraine. Inversely, the results of this study demonstrated a day effect with a higher number of episodes on Saturday and less on Monday and Tuesday. The triggering effect of catamenia on many acute episodes was also confirmed.

Adult↗

Short-term improvements in public health from global-climate policies on fossil-fuel combustion: an interim report. Working Group on Public Health and Fossil-Fuel Combustion.

BACKGROUND: Most public-health assessments of climate-control policies have focused on long-term impacts of global change. Our interdisciplinary working group assesses likely short-term impacts on public health. METHODS: We combined models of energy consumption, carbon emissions, and associated atmospheric particulate-matter (PM) concentration under two different forecasts: business-as-usual (BAU); and a hypothetical climate-policy scenario, where developed and developing countries undertake significant reductions in carbon emissions. FINDINGS: We predict that by 2020, 700,000 avoidable deaths (90% CI 385,000-1,034,000) will occur annually as a result of additional PM exposure under the BAU forecasts when compared with the climate-policy scenario. From 2000 to 2020, the cumulative impact on public health related to the difference in PM exposure could total 8 million deaths globally (90% CI 4.4-11.9 million). In the USA alone, the avoidable number of annual deaths from PM exposure in 2020 (without climate-change-control policy) would equal in magnitude deaths associated with human immunodeficiency diseases or all liver diseases in 1995. INTERPRETATION: The mortality estimates are indicative of the magnitude of the likely health benefits of the climate-policy scenario examined and are not precise predictions of avoidable deaths. While characterized by considerable uncertainty, the short-term public-health impacts of reduced PM exposures associated with greenhouse-gas reductions are likely to be substantial even under the most conservative set of assumptions.

Air Pollutants↗

The relationship between climate and the distribution of Culicoides imicola in Iberia.

The biting midge Culicoides imicola was captured at 17 of 27 farms in Spain and Portugal during a survey of its distribution following outbreaks of African horse sickness in Iberia that occurred between 1987 and 1990. Farms were sampled approximately twice weekly from October 1992 to February 1995. Farms were widely spaced apart (maximum 850 km) and had considerable variation in climate. Across sites, summer temperatures ranged from 18.3 degrees C-27.2 degrees C; in winter the range was 4.4 degrees C-11.6 degrees C. Relative humidities in summer ranged from 37.2% to 90.1%. Proximity to southern Spain (Seville) was the most significant predictor of the presence/absence of C. imicola, but high summer temperatures and possibly dry summer conditions, were also important. Vila Nova de Milfontes in Portugal, where C. imicola was abundant and the climate is relatively cool, was an exception to the climatic trends at the other 26 sites. This exception points to a lack of knowledge of climatic requirements for immature development of C. imicola. The absence of C. imicola from the three most easterly sites, which have apparently favourable climates, suggests a relatively recent invasion by this species into Iberia.

African Horse Sickness↗

Climate-Driven Niche Tracking and Genomic Resilience Shape Future Distribution of a Widespread Agricultural Weed.

Understanding how agriculturally important species respond to environmental change is critical for maintaining productivity, mitigating agroecosystem threats and sustaining resilience. While crops have traditionally been the focus in agroecosystems, agricultural weeds are integral components that often face even stronger selective pressures, making them powerful models for investigating ecological and evolutionary responses to climatic and human-mediated challenges. Insights from how weeds adapt rapidly under these pressures can inform strategies to improve agricultural outcomes, since both pests and crops evolve under the same multivariate selective pressures. Here, we integrate two centuries of distribution records with whole-genome sequencing from natural populations of the most damaging weed in Europe-Alopecurus myosuroides (blackgrass) - to examine its ecological and evolutionary responses in agroecosystems. Blackgrass largely maintained its historical climatic niche, expanding its range primarily by tracking environments analogous to those it historically occupied. Genome-wide analyses revealed a polygenic basis of environmental responses, with most loci linked to single environmental variables and a subset showing limited environmental pleiotropy, indicating modular adaptation to the complex selective pressures of managed agricultural landscapes. Coupling these genomic-environment relationships with projected climate change and genomic offset analyses indicated that most blackgrass populations will remain well aligned with future conditions. Our findings show that ecological niche tracking and polygenic adaptation allow agricultural weeds like blackgrass to persist under rapid environmental change, offering insights relevant not only for weed management but also for designing resilient cropping systems under future climates.

Plant Weeds↗

Heat stress and mortality in Lisbon Part II. An assessment of the potential impacts of climate change.

Global environmental change, in particular climate change, will have adverse effects on public health. The increased frequency/intensity of heat waves is expected to increase heat-related mortality and illness. To quantify the climatic risks of heat-related mortality in Lisbon an empirical-statistical model was developed in Part I, based on the climate-mortality relationship of the summer months of 1980-1998. In Part II, scenarios of climate and population change are applied to the model to assess the potential impacts on public health in the 2020s and 2050s, in terms of crude heat-related mortality rates. Two regional climate models (RCMs) were used and different assumptions about seasonality, acclimatisation and the estimation of excess deaths were made in order to represent uncertainty explicitly. An exploratory Bayesian analysis was used to investigate the sensitivity of the result to input assumptions. Annual heat-related death rates are estimated to increase from between 5.4 and 6 (per 100,000) for 1980-1998 to between 5.8 and 15.1 for the 2020s. By the 2050s, the potential increase ranges from 7.3 to 35.6. The burden of deaths is decreased if acclimatisation is factored in. Through a Bayesian analysis it is shown that, for the tested variables, future heat-related mortality is most sensitive to the choice of RCM and least to the method of calculating the excess deaths.

Adolescent↗

A review of indicators of climate change for use in Ireland.

Impact indicators are systems/organisms, the vitality of which alters in response to changes in environmental condition. The indicators assessed in this review fall within the impact category of the driver-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) framework. Instrumental records have shown unequivocal changes in climatic conditions over the past 30 years at a global level but impact indicators allow these changes to be monitored at a finer resolution. Our main aim was to review sets of indicators of climate change currently used in various countries and to make recommendations for their use in the Irish environment. We review a preliminary set of climate change impact indicators in five sectors: agriculture; plant and animal distribution patterns; phenology; palaeoecology and human health. Currently, the most effective impact indicators of climate change have proved to be phenological observations of tree developmental stages. The strongest factor limiting the use of indicators is the lack of long-term data sets from which a climatic signal can be extracted.

Agriculture↗

Organizational climate partially mediates the effect of culture on work attitudes and staff turnover in mental health services.

Staff turnover in mental health service organizations is an ongoing problem with implications for staff morale, productivity, organizational effectiveness, and implementation of innovation. Recent studies in public sector services have examined the impact of organizational culture and climate on work attitudes (i.e., job satisfaction and organizational commitment) and, ultimately, staff turnover. However, mediational models of the impact of culture and climate on work attitudes have not been examined. The present study examined full and partial mediation models of the effects of culture and climate on work attitudes and the subsequent impact of work attitudes on staff turnover. Multilevel structural equation models supported a partial mediation model in which organizational culture had both direct influence on work attitudes and indirect influence through organizational climate. Work attitudes significantly predicted one-year staff turnover rates. These findings support the contention that both culture and climate impact work attitudes and subsequent staff turnover.

Attitude↗

An approach for treating the uncertainties in the impact of climate change.

Past accumulated data supported by the predictions of climate models suggest that our world is getting warmer. Scientists are trying to construct mathematical models of both climate and crop systems to identify what types of climate changes could constitute a significant risk or benefit for agriculture. However, due to the many uncertainties regarding these models, it is impossible to make unequivocal predictions. At present, almost all the research in this area is carried out without considering the uncertain nature of the problem. The approach outlined here attempts to find a way to deal with the above uncertainty problem. Artificial intelligence techniques are being developed with the aim of performing inferences based on uncertain information. In our method, causal graphs are used for explicit representation of the relationships between climatic factors and yield. Probabilities are used to express the uncertainties associated with these links, and Bayes' theorem is applied to deal with uncertainty reasonings. This approach has the additional advantage of allowing the prediction to be readily updated as results from improved climate and crop models become available. These opportunities are being evaluated initially by using the model for potato growth developed at the Scottish Crop Research Institute.

Journal Article↗

Climatic sensitivity of temperate forests.

Climatic change and associated global changes are of major interest to foresters, both in terms of forest ecology and of future forest production. Predicting the likely effects of global change on forests is extremely difficult due to the critical lack of information on regional changes in meteorological factors relevant to forests. However, existing models of forest production and forest distribution fail to take adequate account of what is already known. Climate and carbon dioxide concentrations have shown substantial changes over the last 100 years. Although the rate of change is likely to increase, recent proposed and implemented control strategies, together with better climatic models, are tending to suggest that the rate of change will be less than initially thought. This means that past changes may provide an increasingly useful source of information. In particular, information on the impact on forests of both long-term climate change and short-term climatic events is rapidly increasing. Such information should be built into future forest response models.

Journal Article↗

Organizational climate, communication, and role strain in clinical nursing faculty.

This study examined factors contributing to role strain experienced by clinical nursing faculty while they oversaw the clinical experiences of nursing students. Specifically, the study focused on differences between clinical nursing faculty's perceptions of organizational climate and communication within affiliating agencies and perceptions of these factors held by their respective nursing unit managers in the affiliating agencies. Perceptions of organizational climate and communication were related to role strain reported by clinical nursing faculty, and predictors of role strain in clinical nursing faculty were identified. The instruments used for data collection were the Organizational Climate Questionnaire, Communication Within Organizations Questionnaire, and Role Strain Questionnaire. Data were analyzed using independent Student's t Tests, Pearson Product-Moment Correlation Coefficients, and stepwise multiple regression analysis. Significant differences in perceptions of organizational climate were not found; however, clinical nursing faculty and nursing unit managers differed significantly in their perception of communication. There was a significant positive correlation between organizational climate, communication, and reported role strain in clinical nursing faculty, and a linear relationship was demonstrated between reported role strain in clinical nursing faculty, perceptions of communication, and length of time on the nursing unit in the affiliating agency.

Adult↗

The relationship between safety climate and injury rates across industries: the need to adjust for injury hazards.

Previous studies have suggested that strong safety climates (shared perceptions of safe conducts at work) are associated with lower workplace-injury rates, but they rarely control for differences in industry hazards. Based on 33 companies, we assessed its association with injury rates using three rate based injury measures (claims per 100 employees, claims per 100,000 h worked, and claims per 1 million US dollars payroll), which were derived from workers' compensation injury claims. Linear regression models were used to test the predictability of safety climate on injury rates, followed by controlling for differences in hazard across industries gauged by national industry-specific injury rates. In the unadjusted model, company level safety climate were negatively and significantly associated with injury rates. However, all of the above associations were no longer apparent when controlling for the hazardousness of the specific industry. These findings may be due to over adjustment of hazard risk, or the overwhelming effects of industry specific hazards relative to safety climate effects that could not be differentiated with the statistical power in our study. Industry differences in hazard, conceptualized as one type of injury risk, however need to be considered when testing the association between safety climate and injury across different industries.

Accidents, Occupational↗

Social climate and workplace drinking among women in a male-dominated occupation.

OBJECTIVE: This study applies Gilligan's relational theory to an exploration of the influence of the social climate at work on workplace drinking in a male-dominated occupation. METHODS: Data used in this analysis were originally collected from a random sample of employees at a heavy machinery assembly plant (N = 984, women = 121). Because reciprocal relationships between workplace drinking and social climate were hypothesized, the parameters were estimated using simultaneous equation modeling. RESULTS: Women who reported a negative social climate at work also had a greater propensity to drink at work. There was no similar relationships between social climate and workplace drinking for men. CONCLUSIONS: Workplace drinking prevention programs in male-dominated occupations may need to address the social climate at work, particularly for women.

Adult↗

The effects of the ARC organizational intervention on caseworker turnover, climate, and culture in children's service systems.

OBJECTIVE: This study examines the effects of the Availability, Responsiveness, and Continuity (ARC) organizational intervention strategy on caseworker turnover, climate, and culture in a child welfare and juvenile justice system. METHOD: Using a pre-post, randomized blocks, true experimental design, 10 urban and 16 rural case management teams were randomly assigned to either the ARC organizational intervention condition or to a control condition. The culture and climate of each case management team were assessed at baseline and again after the one-year organizational intervention was completed. In addition, caseworker turnover was assessed by identifying caseworkers on the sampled teams who quit their jobs during the year. RESULTS: Hierarchical Linear Models (HLM) analyses indicate that the ARC organizational intervention reduced the probability of caseworker turnover by two-thirds and improved organizational climate by reducing role conflict, role overload, emotional exhaustion, and depersonalization in both urban and rural case management teams. CONCLUSIONS: Organizational intervention strategies can be used to reduce staff turnover and improve organizational climates in urban and rural child welfare and juvenile justice systems. This is important because child welfare and juvenile justice systems in the U.S.A. are plagued by high turnover rates, and there is evidence that high staff turnover and poor organizational climates negatively affect service quality and outcomes in these systems.

Adult↗

A cross-validation of safety climate scale using confirmatory factor analytic approach.

PROBLEM: Given the lack of a consistent factor structure of safety climate, this study tested the stability of a factor structure of a safety climate scale developed through an extensive literature review using confirmatory factor analytic approach and cross-validation. METHODS: A cross-sectional sample of 722 U.S. grain industry workers participated in the questionnaire survey. RESULTS: The safety climate scale developed through the generation of an item pool based on a table of specifications, subsequent scientific item reduction procedures, reviews from experts, and pilot test yielded adequate reliabilities for each dimension. Each item showed proper discriminative power based on both internal and external criteria. Criterion validity was manifested by the significant positive correlation of the scale with five criteria. Evidence of construct validity was provided by both exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses. Both calibration and validation samples supported a consistent factor structure. Management commitment and supervisor support were found to influence other dimensions of safety climate. DISCUSSION: This study provides an insight into the primary reason why previous attempts have failed to find a consistent factor structure of safety climate: No specification of the influence of management commitment and supervisor support on other dimensions of safety in their models. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The findings of this study provide a framework upon which accident prevention efforts can be effectively organized and underscore the importance of management commitment and supervisor support as they affect employee safety perceptions.

Adult↗

Climate change and marine plankton.

Understanding how climate change will affect the planet is a key issue worldwide. Questions concerning the pace and impacts of climate change are thus central to many ecological and biogeochemical studies, and addressing the consequences of climate change is now high on the list of priorities for funding agencies. Here, we review the interactions between climate change and plankton communities, focusing on systematic changes in plankton community structure, abundance, distribution and phenology over recent decades. We examine the potential socioeconomic impacts of these plankton changes, such as the effects of bottom-up forcing on commercially exploited fish stocks (i.e. plankton as food for fish). We also consider the crucial roles that plankton might have in dictating the future pace of climate change via feedback mechanisms responding to elevated atmospheric CO(2) levels. An important message emerges from this review: ongoing plankton monitoring programmes worldwide will act as sentinels to identify future changes in marine ecosystems.

Journal Article↗

Assessing the potential impacts of various climate change scenarios on the hydrological regime of the River Kennet at Theale, Berkshire, south-central England, UK: an application and evaluation of the new semi-distributed model, INCA

A new semi-distributed integrated nitrogen in catchments (INCA) model was used to attempt to assess the potential impacts of several recent Hadley Centre climate change scenarios on the hydrological flow regime of the entire River Kennet catchment to Theale, south-central England, UK. The climatically and hydrologically anomalous period 1985-1995 was used for baseline data in an attempt to: (1) represent any possible future climatic or hydrological variability not available from scenario use alone; and (2) attain maximum possible model calibration validity under future climates by simulating extremes of within-year hydrological variability. Substantial reductions in total annual runoff occurred, with an average reduction of 18.97%. Summer and late autumn soil moisture deficits (SMDs) increased in intensity, and were also found to persist for longer periods into autumn and (occasionally) winter. A generally enhanced hydrological regime of the River Kennet was simulated, with increased seasonality overall. A greater percentage of flow was observed to occur in spring and (occasionally) winter. Month-to-month variability of flow was discovered to be greater than annual changes. An average reduction in minimum annual flows of 46.03% occurred. Implications for catchment ecology and water resource requirements are briefly discussed. An evaluation of the new INCA model's performance as a tool for climate change impacts assessment is made.

Journal Article↗

Climatic mapping to identify high-risk areas for Cylindrocladium quinqueseptatum leaf blight on eucalypts in mainland South East Asia and around the world.

Cylindrocladium quinqueseptatum is a pathogen on a wide range of hosts. It affects at least 20 species of eucalypts and is an important causal agent of leaf blight of Eucalyptus camaldulensis in central and southern Vietnam. Results from previous studies and observations of broadscale infection patterns in mainland South East Asia were used to derive simple rules (i.e. mean minimum temperature of coldest month > or =16 degrees C and mean annual precipitation > or =1400 mm) to identify locations which are likely to have a high risk of C. quinqueseptatum leaf blight (CqLB). Climatic mapping programs, which include interpolated climatic data estimated for numerous locations, were used to map these high risk areas in Africa, Australia and Latin America as well as in South East Asia. The predicted high-risk areas included several regions where CqLB has already been reported and the maps generated suggested other areas which may be at risk under present climatic conditions given the presence of C. quinqueseptatum and susceptible hosts. Some simple climate change scenarios were also used to suggest areas in mainland South East Asia which may become vulnerable to CqLB over the next 50 years. It is concluded that climatic mapping programs can assist the broadscale evaluation of risk of CqLB infections, although it is recognised that more detailed models and survey information are also needed.

Journal Article↗

The relationship among organizational climate variables and nurse stability in critical care units.

This study examined the relationship among determinants of organizational climate, identified from the literature as communication, staff utilization, interdisciplinary politics, reward and support services, and nurse stability in critical care units. The purposes of the study were (1) to describe the organizational climate reported by staff registered nurses working in eight critical care units located in the same tertiary care center, (2) to measure nurse stability in the study units, (3) to determine interunit differences in organizational climate and nurse stability, and (4) to examine relationships among organizational climate phenomena and nurse stability. The sample was composed of 192 critical care staff nurses. Results indicated significant interunit differences among organizational climate determinants and nurse stability. Relationships among communication, interdisciplinary politics, and nurse stability were also demonstrated.

Communication↗