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Weather, host and vector--their interplay in the spread of insect-borne animal virus diseases.

The spread of insect-borne animal virus diseases is influenced by a number of factors. Hosts migrate, move or are conveyed over long distances: vectors are carried on the wind for varying distances in search of hosts and breeding sites; weather and climate affect hosts and vectors through temperature, moisture and wind. As parasites of host and vector, viruses are carried by animals, birds and insects, and their spread can be correlated with the migration of hosts and the carriage of vectors on winds associated with the movements of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and warm winds to the north and south of the limits of the ITCZ. The virus is often transmitted from a local cycle to a migratory cycle and back again.Examples of insect-borne virus diseases and their spread are analysed. Japanese, Murray Valley, Western equine, Eastern equine and St Louis encephalitis represent viruses transmitted by mosquito-bird or pig cycles.THE AREAS EXPERIENCING INFECTION WITH THESE VIRUSES CAN BE DIVIDED INTO A NUMBER OF ZONES: A, B, C, D, E and F. In zone A there is a continuous cycle of virus in host and vector throughout the year; in zone B, there is an upsurge in the cycle during the wet season, but the cycle continues during the dry season; there is movement of infected vectors between and within zones A and B on the ITCZ and the virus is introduced to zone C by infected vectors on warm winds; persistence may occur in zone C if conditions are right. In zone D, virus is introduced each year by infected vectors on warm winds and the arrival of the virus coincides with the presence of susceptible nestling birds and susceptible piglets. The disappearance of virus occurs at the time when migrating mosquitoes and birds are returning to warmer climates. The virus is introduced to zone E only on occasions every 5-10 years when conditions are suitable. Infected hosts introduced to zone F do not lead to circulation of virus, since the climate is unsuitable for vectors. Zones A, B and C correspond to endemic and zones D and E to epidemic conditions.Similar zones can be recognized for African horse sickness, bluetongue, Ibaraki disease and bovine ephemeral fever - examples of diseases transmitted in a midge-mammal cycle. In zones A and B viruses are transported by infected midges carried on the wind in association with the movement of ITCZ and undergo cycles in young animals. In these zones and in zone C there is a continual movement of midges on the warm wind between one area and another, colonizing new sites or reinforcing populations of midges already present. Virus is introduced at times into fringe areas (zones D and E) and, as there is little resistance in the host, gives rise to clinical signs of disease. In some areas there is persistence during adverse conditions; in others, the virus is carried back to the endemic zones by infected midges or vectors.Examples of viruses maintained in a mosquito/biting fly-mammal cycle are Venezuelan equine encephalitis and vesicular stomatitis. These viruses enter a migratory cycle from a local cycle and the vectors in the migratory cycle are carried over long distances on the wind. Further examples of virus spread by movement of vectors include West Nile, Rift Valley fever, yellow fever, epizootic haemorrhagic disease of deer and Akabane viruses.In devising means of control it is essential to decide the relationship of host, vector and virus and the nature of the zone in which the area to be controlled lies. Because of the continual risk of reintroduction of infected vectors, it is preferable to protect the host by dipping, spraying or by vaccination rather than attempting to eliminate the local population of insects.

African Horse Sickness↗

Linking cesium and strontium uptake to kaolinite weathering in simulated tank waste leachate.

Weathering behavior of kaolinite was studied in batch systems under geochemical conditions characteristic of tank waste released to the vadose zone at the Hanford Site, WA (0.05 M Al(T), 2 M Na+, 1 M N03-, pH approximately 14, Cs+ and Sr2+ present as co-contaminants). Time series experiments were conducted from 0 to 369 d, with initial Cs+ and Sr2+ concentrations ranging from 10(-5) to 10(-3) M. Dissolution of kaolinite increased soluble Si and Al to maximum levels at 7 d (Cs and Sr concentrations of 10(-5) and 10(-4) M) or 33 d (Cs and Sr concentrations of 10(-3) M). Subsequent precipitation of Si and Al was coupled to the formation of oxalate-extractable solids that incorporated Cs and Sr. Strontium sorption was nearly complete within 24 h for initial Sr concentrations (Sr0) < or = 10(-4) whereas Cs uptake increased over the full year of the experiment for all initial Cs concentrations. Spectroscopic analyses revealed neoformed solids including the zeolite Na-Al silicate (Al-chabazite), and feldspathoids sodium aluminum nitrate silicate (NO3-sodalite), and sodium aluminum nitrate silicate hydrate (NO3-cancrinite), which can incorporate Cs. Single-pulse 27Al solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopyyielded first-order rate constants (k)for mineral transformation that decreased from 3.5 x 10(-3) to 2 x 10(-3) d(-1) as Cs and Sr concentrations were increased from 10(-5) to 10(-3) M. Discrete strontium silicate solids were also observed. The incongruent dissolution of kaolinite promoted the sequestration of contaminants into increasingly recalcitrant solid phases over the 1-yr time period.

Adsorption↗

Analysis of weather effects on variability in Lyme disease incidence in the northeastern United States.

In this study, variability in reported Lyme disease incidence between 1993 and 2001 was analyzed in seven states in the northeastern part of the USA. Positive significant correlations at p < 0.05 were found in all states between early summer disease incidence and the June moisture index in the region two years prior. These correlations may reflect an enhanced nymphal Ixodes scapularis survival under wetter conditions. In some states, significant correlations were observed related to warmer winter weather a year and a half prior to disease incidence, which may have been due to higher survival and activity levels of the white-footed mouse, an important host for I. scapularis ticks.

Animals↗

Weather and climate on Mars.

Imagine a planet very much like the Earth, with similar size, rotation rate and inclination of rotation axis, possessing an atmosphere and a solid surface, but lacking oceans and dense clouds of liquid water. We might expect such a desert planet to be dominated by large variations in day-night and winter-summer weather. Dust storms would be common. Observations and simulations of martian climate confirm these expectations and provide a wealth of detail that can help resolve problems of climate evolution.

Atmosphere↗

Monitor-to-monitor temporal correlation of air pollution and weather variables in the North-Central U.S.

Numerous time series studies have reported associations between daily ambient concentrations of air pollution and morbidity or mortality. Recent personal exposure studies have also reported relatively high longitudinal correlation between personal exposures to particulate matter (PM) and home outdoor PM concentrations, lending support to the health effects reported in time series studies. However, the question remains as to how well the temporal fluctuations in the air pollution levels observed at an outdoor monitor represent the temporal fluctuations in the population exposures to pollution of outdoor origins in a city, and how such representativeness affects the size and significance of risk estimates. Also, such spatio-temporal correlations would vary from pollutant to pollutant, likely influencing their relative significance of statistical associations with health outcomes. In this study, we characterized the extent of monitor-to-monitor correlation over time among multiple monitoring sites for PM less than 10 microm (PM10), gaseous criteria pollutants, and several weather variables in seven central and eastern contiguous states (IL, IN, MI, OH, PA, WI, and WV) during the study period of 1988-1990. After removing seasonal trends, the monitor-to-monitor temporal correlation among the air pollution/weather variables within 100-mile separation distance in these areas could be generally ranked into three groups: (1 ) temperature, dew point, relative humidity (r>0.9); (2) O3, PM10, NO2 (r: 0.8-0.6); and (3) CO, SO2 (r<0.5). Using the subsets for separation distance less than 100 miles, regression analyses of these monitor-to-monitor correlation coefficients were also conducted with explanatory variables including separation distance, qualitative (land use, location setting, and monitoring objectives) and quantitative (large and small variance) site characteristics, and region indicators for Air Quality Control Region (AQCR). The separation distance was a significant predictor of monitorto-monitor correlation decline especially for PM10 and NO2 (approximately 0.2 drop over 30 miles). Site characteristic variables were, in some cases, significant predictors of monitor-to-monitor correlation, but the magnitude of their impacts was not substantial. Regional differences, as examined by AQCR, were in some cases (e.g., in Metropolitan Philadelphia) substantial. In these areas, the pollutants that had generally poor monitor-to-monitor correlation in the overall seven states data (i.e., for SO2 and CO) showed higher monitor-to-monitor correlations, comparable with PM10 and O3, within the AQCR. These results are useful in interpreting some of the past time series epidemiological results. The differences in monitor-to-monitor correlations found across pollutants in this work (i.e., r approximately 0.8 vs. r approximately 0.4) are sufficiently large that they could be a factor in the different pollutant significance levels reported in the epidemiologic literature. It is recommended that future epidemiological studies collect and incorporate information on spatial variability among air pollutants in the analysis and interpretation of their results.

Air Pollution↗

Studies on pathogenic Vibrio parahaemolyticus during a warm weather season in the Seto Inland Sea, Japan.

Vibrio parahaemolyticus is a potentially pathogenic bacterium, occurring naturally in estuarine and marine environments throughout the world. The incidence of this organism in an aquatic environment depends upon many ecofactors. Sea water and organic material were collected during the warm weather season from a coast of the Seto Inland Sea, Japan, and analysed to determine V. parahaemolyticus densities and the occurrence of pathogenic strains, defined as those possessing tdh and/or trh genes by polymerase chain reaction (PCR), using isolated DNA from enrichment culture of the samples. About 99% of samples were positive for V. parahaemolyticus with densities of 3 to >1400 cells per 100 ml of water or 10 g of organic samples by the most-probable-number (MPN)-PCR technique, but only 76.6% were positive by the conventional MPN culture technique, with densities ranging from 3 to >1400 cells per 100 ml of water or 10 g of organics. Furthermore, the tdh and trh genes were positive in 41.5% and 8.5% of samples, respectively, by the MPN-PCR technique. No tdh and trh gene-positive strains were isolated by the conventional MPN culture procedure. The difference in detection between the MPN culture and the MPN-PCR techniques appeared to be significant and may be attributed to different detection sensitivities and other factors.

Bacterial Proteins↗

Relationship between pollen counts and weather variables in east-Mediterranean coast of Turkey. Does it affect allergic symptoms in pollen allergic children?

BACKGROUND: Aeroallergen sampling provides information regarding the onset, duration and severity of the pollen season that clinicians use to guide allergen selection for skin testing and treatment. OBJECTIVES: This atmospheric survey reports (1) airborne pollen contributions in Adana in one-year period (2) pollen onset, duration and peak level (3) the relationship between airborne pollen and selected meteorological variables and; (4) effects on symptoms in pollen allergic children. METHODS: Pollen sampling was performed with a volumetric Burkard Spore Trap. Meteorological data were measured daily from April 2001 to April 2002. Asthma symptom scores were investigated in 186 pollen allergic children that were on follow up in pediatric allergy outpatient clinics during same period. RESULTS: Average measurements included 82.5% tree pollen, 7.7% grass pollen and 9.8% herb pollen 54 taxa were identified during one year. The most prominent tree pollens were Cupressaceae, Eucalyptus and Pinus. The most common herb was Chenopodiaceae pollen family. When airborne pollen levels were examined in relation to single meteorological conditions; daily variations in total pollen counts were not significantly correlated with any variable studied (humidity, rainfall, temperature and wind) (p > 0.05). On the other hand, statistically significant relationship between pollen concentration and symptom scores were found (p > 0.05). Positive correlations were seen between both Gramineae and Herb pollen, and humidity and rainfall from March to July. However, positive correlations were detected between tree pollen counts and temperature and humidity in May and June. CONCLUSION: This survey is the first volumetric airborne pollen analysis conducted in the survey area in Adana. This study suggested that the effects of weather on pollen count and symptom scores in this population could not be clearly identified with the evaluation of one-year data. However, pollen counts had effect on allergic symptoms in pollen allergic children. Examination of the complex interaction of multiple whether parameters would perhaps more fully elucidate the relationship between meteorology and aerobiology and provide the clinician with information necessary to forecast pollen prevalence. An awareness of the ever chancing, local aeroallergen patterns requires regular monitoring. Such awareness serves as a useful guide in the effective testing and treatment of atopic patients.

Adolescent↗

Weather and nodule mediated variations in delta 13C and delta 15N values in field-grown soybean (Glycine max L.) with special interest in the analyses of xylem fluids.

The nodulating soybean (Enrei) and its non-nodulating mutant (EN 1282) were grown in outdoor plots for 2 years (1994: extraordinary dry, high temperature, 1995: ordinary year). Carbon and nitrogen accumulation, delta 13C and delta 15N values in plant parts and xylem fluids and delta 15N values in the water-extractable soil N were analysed throughout the growing period. Plant growth in 1994 was rapid during the early growth stages, but no pods were produced. In 1995, plant growth was normal and pods were formed. The delta 13C values of the leaves were less negative in 1994 than in 1995 and the nodulated plants showed less negative delta 13C values than non-nodulated plants in both years. The delta 13C values of the leaves during the vegetative phase were positively correlated to the leaf N concentrations. Leaf N concentrations in their turn were influenced by nodulation and weather conditions and/or soil available N. The delta 15N values in the plants and xylem fluids were lower in the nodulated soybean than in non-nodulated soybean in both years, and estimates of the contribution of N2 fixation in nodulated plants based on plant top delta 15N values were 7-14% in 1994 and 37-63% in 1995. The delta 13C values of xylem fluids did not differ between nodulated and non-nodulated plants. Thus, the expected contribution by phosphopenolpyruvate carboxylase-mediated CO2 fixation in the root nodules to plant C-incorporation could not have been significant.

Carbon↗

Modeling effects of weather and source-sink relationships on mango fruit growth.

We modeled the effects of weather and source-sink factors on mango fruit growth. The peach fruit-growth model "Cashoo" was adapted for mango fruit. The model accounts for the main processes of fruit growth, i.e., leaf photosynthesis, fruit demand, fruit respiration, and storage and mobilization of leaf and stem reserves. Simulations for three successive years and for various leaf-to-fruit ratio treatments showed good agreement with observed fruit growth data. Simulations of fruit growth under different climatic conditions, especially with contrasting temperature and radiation, and for different values of initial fruit dry mass and leaf-to-fruit ratio, showed that variations in fruit growth among years can be partly explained by climatic variations through their effects on leaf photosynthesis, fruit demand and fruit growth rate. However, climatic changes contribute substantially less to observed variability in fruit growth than to initial fruit dry mass and leaf-to-fruit ratio.

Fruit↗

Temperature variations in automobiles in various weather conditions. An experimental contribution to the determination of time of death.

From January 1995 through March 2000, temperatures in the passenger compartment of automobiles of different sizes were measured under varying weather conditions (sunshine, cloudy skies, rain) at two locations in eastern Switzerland. During the cold season, the interior temperature rose to 21 degrees C when cars were exposed to sunshine, whereas in summer interior temperature extremes of up to 89 degrees C were recorded. Make, model, and color of the vehicles were of only minor influence.

Automobiles↗

Kinetics of fuel particle weathering and 90Sr mobility in the Chernobyl 30-km exclusion zone.

Weathering of fuel particles and the subsequent leaching of radionuclides causes 90Sr mobility in Chernobyl soils to increase with time after deposition. Studies of 90Sr speciation in soils collected in 1995 and 1996 from the Chernobyl 30-km exclusion zone have been used to calculate rates of fuel particles dissolution under natural environmental conditions. Results show that the velocity of fuel particle dissolution is primarily dependent on the physico-chemical characteristics of the particles and partially dependent on soil acidity. Compared to other areas, the fuel particle dissolution rate is significantly lower in the contaminated areas to the west of the Chernobyl reactor where deposited particles were presumably not oxidized prior to release. The data have been used to derive mathematical models that describe the rate of radionuclide leaching from fuel particles in the exclusion zone and changes in soil-to-plant transfer as a function of particle type and soil pH.

Models, Theoretical↗

Broken appointments at a neighborhood health center. Emphasis on weather.

Broken appointments have been a major problem at the Anthony L. Jordan Health Center since it opened in 1968. In an earlier 6-month study of broken appointments at the center the authors found 48% of pediatric appointments and 43% of medicine appointments to be broken. Daily broken appointment rates were correlated between the two departments and were associated with day and time scheduled and with certain weather conditions. Specifically, highest broken appointment rates were noted for Mondays, for afternoon and evening hours, and for days with precipitation.

Appointments and Schedules↗

Use of calendar and weather data to predict walk-in attendance.

Hospital emergency rooms frequently provide routine health care to inner-city residents. Operating costs for such "walk-in" services might be reduced if staffing levels could be tailored to patient flow. To determine how calendar and meteorological factors affect attendance, we matched the daily visit records of a large ambulatory care center with concurrent calendar and weather data. Stepwise regression analysis resulted in a predictive equation that allows the projection of future attendance. In our facility, patient flow peaked on Monday and declined steadily during the remainder of the week. Fewer visits occurred during autumn and winter than during summer months. Higher temperatures were associated with more visits and daytime rainfall and glaze with fewer, once calendar variables were accounted for. The prediction equation has its greatest usefulness in projecting trends in walk-in attendance. Staffing levels can be adjusted to the predicted patient flow, allowing more cost-efficient operation.

Community Health Centers↗

Aerobiological studies based in Galway. A comparison of pollen and spore counts over two seasons of widely differing weather conditions.

A comparison was made of the pollen and spore counts at Galway in relation to the varying weather conditions of the summers of 1977 and 1978 in an attempt to explain the low incidence of allergies in that area during the summer of 1978. The phenomenon was attributed to the change in the dominant wind direction, which, from May to September 1978 was mainly over sea. Correlations were made between changes in pollen and spore catches and variations in particular meteorological factors for both seasons investigated.

Ireland↗

Influence of weather conditions on fly abundance and its implications for transmission of rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus in the North Island of New Zealand.

Blowflies (Diptera: Calliphoridae) and flesh flies (Diptera: Sarcophagidae) are potential vectors of rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV) in New Zealand. The associations between habitat and weather factors on the abundance of these flies were investigated. Between October 1999 and June 2001, flies were trapped on open pasture and in dense vegetation patches on farmland in the Himatangi area of the North Island. Five calliphorid species were trapped commonly at scrub edges and the most abundant sarcophagid, Oxysarcodexia varia Walker, was trapped mainly on open pasture. An abundance peak of O. varia was probably associated with the occurrence of a rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD) outbreak in the study area. Overall abundance of flies varied according to habitat and species, and species numbers differed between seasons and years. The all-day minimum temperature 3 weeks before trapping was a significant variable in all models of fly abundance, whereas average rainfall did not affect fly abundance. The all-day temperature range was significant only for O. varia. The influence of other climatic factors varied between fly species. Climate dependent variations in fly abundance may contribute to the risk of transmission of RHD, which occurred intermittently on the site during the study period.

Animals↗

Daily hay fever forecast in the Netherlands. Radio broadcasting of the expected influence of the weather or subjective complaints of hay fever sufferers.

The literature on local pollen counts and their significance for hay fever is reviewed and a system for forecasting hay fever is described. Such forecasts have been broadcast by radio in The Netherlands since 1977. The hay fever forecast takes the form of a prognosis (in terms of three grades) of the influence of the expected whether situation on tomorrow's course of the subjective complaints of hay fever sufferers. It is not a forecast of the pollen count. When the subjective complaints of about 150 hay fever patients were used as reference for evaluation, the forecasts proved to have been correct in 72, 85, and 88% of the cases in 1977, 1978, and 1979, respectively. The practical usefulness and the limitations of the system are briefly discussed, with emphasis on the principle that not the local pollen count but the weather should be taken as the main determinative factor for the expected subjective experiences in a group of hay fever sufferers in a certain region.

Female↗

Analysis of the relationships between environmental factors (aeroallergens, air pollution, and weather) and asthma emergency admissions to a hospital in Mexico City.

There have been several studies of the relationships between environmental factors, particularly air pollution, and attacks of asthma. Most of these studies have ignored the potential confounding effects of aeroallergens such as pollens and fungal spores. We report a statistical analysis of the relationships between emergency admissions for asthma to a hospital in Mexico City and daily average airborne concentrations of pollen, fungal spores, air pollutants (O3, NO2, SO2, and particulates) and weather factors. Asthma admissions had a seasonal pattern with more during the wet season (May-October) than the dry season (November-April). There were few statistical associations between asthma admissions and air pollutants for the three age groups studied (children under 15 years, adults, and seniors [adults over 59 years]) in either season. Grass pollen was associated with child and adult admissions for both the wet and dry seasons, and fungal spores were associated with child admissions during both the wet and dry seasons. The analysis was done with environmental data averaged over the day of admission and the 2 previous days. Our results suggest that aeroallergens may be statistically associated more strongly with asthma hospital admissions than air pollutants and may act as confounding factors in epidemiologic studies.

Adolescent↗

Daily mortality in relation to weather and air pollution in Christchurch, New Zealand.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relationship between the daily number of deaths, weather and ambient air pollution. METHOD: An ecological study. We assembled daily data for the city of Christchurch, New Zealand (population 300,000) from June 1988 to December 1993. We used Poisson regression models, controlling for season using a parametric method. RESULTS: Above the third quartile (20.5 degrees C) of maximum temperature, an increase of 1 degree C was associated with a 1% (95% CI: 0.4 to 2.1%) increase in all-cause mortality and a 3% (0.1 to 6.0%) increase in respiratory mortality. An increase in PM10 of 10 micrograms/m3 was associated (after a lag of one day) with a 1% (0.5 to 2.2%) increase in all-cause mortality and a 4% (1.5 to 5.9%) increase in respiratory mortality. We found no evidence of interaction between the effects of temperature and particulate air pollution. CONCLUSIONS: High temperatures and particulate air pollution are independently associated with increased daily mortality in Christchurch. The fact that these results are consistent with those of similar studies in other countries strengthens the argument that the associations are likely to be causal. IMPLICATIONS: These findings contribute to evidence of health consequences of fuel combustion, both in the short term (from local air pollution) and in the long term (from the global climatic effects of increased atmospheric CO2).

Adolescent↗