Adapting methods to needs: studying fertility and nuptiality in seventeenth- and eighteenth-century Belgium.
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"This paper examines the relationship between fertility and nuptiality in Kenya using data from the Kenya Fertility Survey 1977/78. The results show that completed fertility (the cumulative fertility at the end of the reproductive period 15-49) decreases with the rise in age at first marriage. Type of union is also found to affect marital stability, frequency of marriage and consequently completed fertility. Regardless of type of union, women whose first union is still continuing have higher fertility than those women whose first union was dissolved and who married once or several times after. Highest fertility is experienced by women married only once and...in monogamous unions. The results also show that polygamously married older women among the rural populations experience higher fertility than their counterparts in the urban areas regardless of age." (SUMMARY IN AFR)
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This study is concerned with the negative effects of early marriage on marital stability. "The focus on this paper is an analysis of a path model which includes the estimated effects of antecedents of early marriage, early marriage and education on the probability of divorce. Findings using the [U.S.] General Social Surveys support research that suggests that early marriage is the most important varialbe influencing divorce. Further, little influence of the early marriage measure through education was found."
An account is given of the marital ages, birth and residence distances of marriage partners living in an urban area. Some social group differences were found; non-manual group members marry later and they tend to be more mobile than individuals from the manual group.
A retrospective study was conducted on spousal age at marriage, time to first birth and total pregnancies in the populations of seven cities in the Pakistani province of Punjab. Consanguineous marriages were strongly favoured with coefficients of inbreeding (F) for the present generation ranging from 0.0236 to 0.0286. Male and female ages at marriage were younger in consanguineous unions and spousal age differences smaller than in their non-consanguineous counterparts. Time elapsed from marriage to first birth tended to be longer in consanguineous unions but, in general, they had more pregnancies. As consanguinity has been shown to be associated with increased ante- and postnatal mortality in these communities, reproductive compensation provides a credible explanation for the apparent enhanced fertility with inbreeding. However, the data equally could be interpreted in terms of greater reproductive span and/or biosocial compatibility of the consanguineous unions.
Using data from the 1961 Italian census, the study of fertility in Sardinia when malaria was endemic shows differential fertility between women living in areas with differing degrees of malaria. Cultural factors measured by women's level of education are negatively correlated with fertility, just as the 'urban' character of the area in which the women lived has a lowering effect on the fertility rate. The hypothesis of differential mortality according to social class, affecting lower-class women and in particular the more prolific among them, seems to be supported by data analysed through time. The subdivision of Sardinian towns and villages into those with a 'low' and a 'high' malaria rate was made on the basis of the classification given by Fermi in a period corresponding to the overall period of fertility of the women considered. Hypotheses about a greater acquired immunity and a higher frequency of heterozygotes for malarial genes, like thalassaemia and G-6-PD deficiency, in the area where malaria was more intense, are proposed to explain the higher fitness of women living in this area. The comparison between frequencies of heterozygotes for thalassaemia and G-6-PD deficiency, obtained by Siniscalco et al. for Sardinian villages in the two different malaria-infested areas, shows a significant difference when the areas are examined as a whole, but a great variability (principally for G-6-PD deficiency) between villages. Changes in ecological factors could have modified the geographical distribution of malaria today, compared with the distribution that may have determined the frequencies of heterozygotes many years ago.
In order to obtain information about the population structure of two black Venezuelan populations with historical differences both in their origins and development, a variety of variables were utilized, especially on marital structure, including: frequency of surnames, isonymy, population genealogical consanguinity, multiple unions, and marital distances, all of which provided information and isolation, migration, endogamy, consanguinity, and patri-matrifocality. Results showed differences in the extent of isolation and endogamy, as well as differences in population structure, which can be directly related with historical conditions of each population. Results agree with those previously obtained with traditional genetic polymorphisms and with the historical information available. Thus, the usefulness of surnames for inferring about population structure is supported, as well as the usefulness of historical information for explaining genetic diversity.
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"The usual Markov model of marriage permits informative experiments on the effect of alterations in the transition rules. It can tell, for example, what difference it would make to the durability of marriage if there was no divorce and the other transitions were as observed. This is in addition to the capacity of the usual model to find the effect of small changes in the transition rates. Canadian data for 1970-1982 permit comparisons over time, and show among other things not only that married men live longer than single, but that the difference is increasing; the increase in the 'marriage bonus' over time also appears for women." (SUMMARY IN FRE)
If event data are recorded in discrete intervals of time, errors are introduced when the data are converted from the unit in which they were recorded, such as date, to another unit such as age or duration. The problem is illustrated by the inconsistent age at marriage schedules published by 2 recent US censuses. This paper develops a general method for treating problems of this type using cubic spline interpolation. The method is used to adjust US age at marriage schedules, explaining a substantial part of the discrepancy in the 1960 and 1970 censuses.
"Formulas are derived for the effect that a slight change in the occurrence/exposure rate of the multidimensional projection model has on the elements of the population vector. The projection model classifies the population by sex, age, and marital status. The model includes a two-sex algorithm in order to ensure consistency between numbers of male and female marriages, number of divorces for the two sexes, and new widows (widowers) and deceased spouses. The sensitivity functions and elasticities are applied to data from the Netherlands for the period 1980-1984. The results indicate that marriage market mechanisms, in particular competition and substitution effects, are reasonably well modelled."
"A fundamental shortcoming of classic stable population theory is its failure to handle populations differentiated by sex. The classic theory is linear while the two-sex problem is inherently nonlinear. Previous two-sex investigations have focused on equilibrium conditions rather than dynamics, and ignored competition between age groups for marriage partners. This study makes a start at analyzing dynamics and models that incorporate competition, which can play an important role in any realistic marriage model and can turn a model with a stable equilibrium sex ratio into one with a cycling equilibrium." This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1990 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America. (SUMMARY IN FRE)
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