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PubMed2006

Influenza-related mortality in the Italian elderly: no decline associated with increasing vaccination coverage.

We investigated trends in influenza-related mortality among the elderly population in Italy associated with increased vaccination coverage. Using Italian vital statistics data, we studied monthly death rates for pneumonia and influenza and all-cause for persons >/=65 years of age by 5-year age groups for 1970-2001. Using a classic seasonal regression modelling approach, we estimated the age-specific seasonal excess mortality rates among Italian elderly as a measure of influenza-related deaths. We studied trends in excess mortality after adjusting for population aging and analyzing separately seasons dominated by the severe A/H3N2 subtype and those dominated by other circulating influenza subtypes. After the late 1980s, no decline in age-adjusted excess mortality was associated with increasing influenza vaccination distribution primarily targeted for the elderly. These findings suggest that either the vaccine failed to protect the elderly against mortality (possibly due to immune senescence), and/or the vaccination efforts did not adequately target the frailest elderly. As in the US, our study challenges current strategies to best protect the elderly against mortality, warranting the need for better controlled trials with alternative vaccination strategies.

Aged↗
PubMed1996

The importance of childbearing for Hodgkin's disease: new evidence from incidence and mortality models.

BACKGROUND: We reported in a recent study that parity was inversely related to the incidence of Hodgkin's disease (HD) in Norwegian women younger than 56. In this study, another data set was used to estimate the parity effects on incidence at higher ages, and two different data sets were used to assess how parity influences prognosis. METHODS: Multiplicative hazard models were estimated for incidence. A novel approach, based on mixed additive-multiplicative mortality hazard models, was used to assess differences in prognosis. The analysis was based on register and census data. RESULTS: There was no effect of parity within marriage on HD incidence in women aged 40-80. With respect to prognosis, parity was found to have a beneficial influence in the age group 15-56. Excess mortality among two-child mothers with HD compared to otherwise equal two-child mothers without HD, was significantly lower than the corresponding excess mortality among childless women. However, the same pattern appeared for men. By contrast, there were strong indications of an increase in excess mortality from HD across marital parity for women aged 40-80. CONCLUSION: The results lend support to the view that childbearing confers no long-term protection, but the evidence is far from clear. The physiological processes triggered by pregnancies do not seem to have a beneficial effect on survival. Childbearing before diagnosis may influence prognosis in men as well as women through social or emotional factors, and may also be related to prognosis because of parity-differentials in the general physical constitution. In addition, there is likely to be a positive selection of individuals who want to and are able to have a child after diagnosis.

Adult↗
PubMed1990

An update of cancer mortality among chrysotile asbestos miners in Balangero, northern Italy.

The mortality experience of a cohort of chrysotile miners employed since 1946 in Balangero, northern Italy was updated to the end of 1987 giving a total of 427 deaths out of 27,010 man-years at risk. A substantial excess mortality for all causes (standardised mortality ratio (SMR) = 149) was found, mainly because of high rates for some alcohol related deaths (hepatic cirrhosis, accidents). For mortality from cancer, however, the number of observed deaths (82) was close to that expected (76.2). The SMR was raised for oral cancer (SMR 231 based on six deaths), cancer of the larynx (SMR 267 based on eight deaths), and pleura (SMR 667 based on two deaths), although the excess only reached statistical significance for cancer of the larynx. Rates were not increased for lung, stomach, or any other type of cancer. No consistent association was seen with duration or cumulative dust exposure (fibre-years) for oral cancer, but the greatest risks for laryngeal and pleural cancer were in the highest category of duration and degree of exposure to fibres. Although part of the excess mortality from laryngeal cancer is probably attributable to high alcohol consumption in this group of workers, the data suggest that exposure to chrysotile asbestos (or to the fibre balangeroite that accounts for 0.2-0.5% of total mass in the mine) is associated with some, however moderate, excess risk of laryngeal cancer and pleural mesothelioma. The absence of excess mortality from lung cancer in this cohort is difficult to interpret.

Alcohol Drinking↗
PubMed1976

The epidemiology of influenza.

Although unpredictable, influenza outbreaks are known to occur in three patterns: pandemics every 30 to 40 years, with high excess mortality; epidemics much more frequently, with lower excess mortality; and usually mild sporadic outbreaks. The possibility of a swine-flu pandemic this winter, resembling that of 1918-20, is the result of a unique deviation in the epidemiology of this fascinating disease.

Antibodies, Viral↗
PubMed2001

Material deprivation and leading causes of death by gender: evidence from a nationwide small area study.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between material deprivation and 10 leading causes of death by gender. DESIGN: Small area cross sectional ecological study using two dimensions of material deprivation (Index 1 and Index 2) drawn from 1991 census and cause specific mortality data aggregated for 1987-1995. SETTING: 2218 small areas in Spain. MAIN RESULTS: Strong detrimental associations of two deprivation indices were found with top six leading causes of death for men and top seven leading causes of death for women, except breast cancer. For men, the highest percentages of excess mortality (between 40% and 60%) were found for smoking and alcohol related causes of death such as lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases, and cirrhosis while for women the highest percentages of excess mortality (between 40% and 60%) were found for diet related causes such as diabetes and ischaemic heart disease. CONCLUSIONS: Health inequality is a widespread phenomenon in the majority of the top leading causes of deaths of the nation. Increasing levels of deprivation indices are associated with mortality risk differently by both cause and gender. Results suggest that deprivation effects mainly captured by Index 2 may manifest largely as unfavourable health behaviours leading to gender specific sets of causes of deaths. Findings of this study are consistent with the idea that material deprivation determines health inequality through both an increase of general susceptibility to ill health, leading to excess mortality in a wide range of causes, and a set of specific factors, resulting in an increased risk of death from a specific set of causes in each gender.

Cause of Death↗
PubMed1998

'Between one and three million': towards the demographic reconstruction of a decade of Cambodian history (1970-79).

Estimates of mortality in Camabodia during the Khmer Rouge regime (1975-79) range from 20,000 deaths according to former Khmer Rouge sources, to over three million victims according to Vietnamese government sources. This paper uses an unusual data source - the 1992 electoral lists registered by the United Nations - to estimate the population size after the Khmer Rouge regime and the extent of "excess" mortality in the 1970s. These data also provide the first breakdown of population by single year of age, which allows analysis of the age structure of "excess" mortality and inference of the relative importance of violence as a cause of death in that period. The estimates derived here are more comparable with the higher estimates made in the past. In addition, the analysis of likely causes of death that could have generated the age pattern of "excess" mortality clearly shows a larger contribution of direct or violent mortality than has been previously recognized.

Cambodia↗
PubMed2004

Mortality and causes of death in primary Sjögren's syndrome: a prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: This study was undertaken to analyze standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and causes and predictors of death in primary Sjögren's syndrome (SS) diagnosed according to 3 different classification criteria sets (the Copenhagen criteria, the European criteria, and the American-European consensus criteria (AECC). METHODS: A linked registry study using information from the Malmö Primary SS Registry combined with the Swedish Cause-of-Death Registry was performed, and SMRs were calculated. Kaplan-Meier survival curves and log rank tests were used to compare survival probability between subgroups of patients with primary SS. Cox regression analysis was used to study the predictive value of various laboratory findings at the time of diagnosis. RESULTS: Four hundred eighty-four patients with a median followup of 7 years (range 1 month to 17 years 11 months) were included. The SMR for those fulfilling the AECC (n = 265) was 1.17 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.81-1.63). Thirty-four deaths occurred in this group of patients. Excess mortality was found only for lymphoproliferative malignancy (cause-specific SMR 7.89 [95% CI 2.89-17.18]), corresponding to 2.53 excess deaths per 1,000 person-years at risk. In those not fulfilling the AECC (n = 219), 14 deaths occurred, the SMR was 0.71 (95% CI 0.39-1.20), and no excess mortality due to any specific cause was found. Hypocomplementemia, defined as C3 and/or C4 values in the lowest quartile of the SS patients' values at the time of diagnosis, was a significant predictor of death, mainly due to lymphoproliferative malignancy. CONCLUSION: No increased all-cause mortality could be detected for patients with primary SS compared with the general population. When subgroups of primary SS were compared, excess mortality due to lymphoproliferative malignancy was found in patients fulfilling the AECC, the strongest predictor for unfavorable outcome being low C3 and/or C4 levels at the time of diagnosis.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1997

Excess female mortality in rural Somalia--is inequality in the household a risk factor?

Gender differences in mortality risks in rural Somali communities were studied to assess their relation to literacy, marital status and family economy between January 1987 and December 1989. In all, 6947 person-years form the basis for the demographic analysis and estimations of mortality rates and survival. Both sexes showed similar mortality risks in infancy and early childhood, but females demonstrated a greater risk of dying during their reproductive life than males. Respiratory symptoms, diarrhoea, fever and jaundice dominated the symptoms prior to death Illiteracy in women considerably increased the risk of dying from 15 years and onwards particularly when living with literate men. The life expectancy from 15 years was 58 for a literate male but only 42 years for an illiterate woman living with a literate head of household. Multivariate analyses showed after adjustment for marital status and literacy that an excess female mortality from 15 years, but especially from 45 years, was associated to a household situation, where the woman did not subside on farming but on other, mainly commercial, activities. This vulnerability of females was associated to the recession of the economy in the pre-war situation in Somalia, a backlash hitting women trying to earn their living. To conclude, gender differences in a number of factors in the household-literacy, marital status and especially source of income-were disadvantageous for the women, increasing the mortality risk in this setting.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2001

The Japanese experience with vaccinating schoolchildren against influenza.

BACKGROUND: Influenza epidemics lead to increased mortality, principally among elderly persons and others at high risk, and in most developed countries, influenza-control efforts focus on the vaccination of this group. Japan, however, once based its policy for the control of influenza on the vaccination of schoolchildren. From 1962 to 1987, most Japanese schoolchildren were vaccinated against influenza. For more than a decade, vaccination was mandatory, but the laws were relaxed in 1987 and repealed in 1994; subsequently, vaccination rates dropped to low levels. When most schoolchildren were vaccinated, it is possible that herd immunity against influenza was achieved in Japan. If this was the case, both the incidence of influenza and mortality attributed to influenza should have been reduced among older persons. METHODS: We analyzed the monthly rates of death from all causes and death attributed to pneumonia and influenza, as well as census data and statistics on the rates of vaccination for both Japan and the United States from 1949 through 1998. For each winter, we estimated the number of deaths per month in excess of a base-line level, defined as the average death rate in November. RESULTS: The excess mortality from pneumonia and influenza and that from all causes were highly correlated in each country. In the United States, these rates were nearly constant over time. With the initiation of the vaccination program for schoolchildren in Japan, excess mortality rates dropped from values three to four times those in the United States to values similar to those in the United States. The vaccination of Japanese children prevented about 37,000 to 49,000 deaths per year, or about 1 death for every 420 children vaccinated. As the vaccination of schoolchildren was discontinued, the excess mortality rates in Japan increased. CONCLUSIONS: The effect of influenza on mortality is much greater in Japan than in the United States and can be measured about equally well in terms of deaths from all causes and deaths attributed to pneumonia or influenza. Vaccinating schoolchildren against influenza provides protection and reduces mortality from influenza among older persons.

Aged↗
PubMed1993

A prospective population-based study of microalbuminuria as a predictor of mortality in NIDDM.

OBJECTIVE: To assess prospectively the relationship between microalbuminuria and mortality in a geographically defined population of NIDDM patients and to determine the relative importance of microalbuminuria as a risk factor for mortality. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A survey of known diabetes undertaken in 1982 identified a cohort of 249 NIDDM patients. Follow-up information was available for 246 patients who contributed 1498 person-yr exposure and were followed up for a mean period of 6.1 yr. The median age of the cohort at entry was 68 yr (range 28-89 yr), and the median duration of diabetes was 7 yr (range 1-41 yr). At baseline, a clinical examination was performed and a random daytime urine specimen was obtained for measurement of urinary albumin concentration. RESULTS: UAC results were available for 236 patients: 45 (19%) patients had a UAC > 15- < 40 mg/L; 36 (15%) had a UAC 40-200 mg/L; 10 (4%) had a UAC > 200 mg/L; and 145 (61%) had a normal UAC < or = 15 mg/L. During the follow-up period, 93 patients died. All-causes mortality, expressed as standardized mortality ratio (SMR = 149) and coronary heart disease mortality (CHD SMR = 166) were significantly increased. This excess mortality was significant in women (all-causes SMR = 194, CHD SMR = 234) but not in men (all-causes SMR = 118, CHD SMR = 128). On univariate analysis, systolic blood pressure was the only significant association with albumin concentration (P = 0.0002). An age-stratified log-rank test was conducted to determine the effect of potential explanatory variables on survival. Survival distributions were significantly different for known duration of diabetes (P = 0.045), intermittent claudication (P = 0.012), severity of retinopathy, lens opacity (P < 0.001) and UAC (P = 0.013) and diastolic blood pressure approached significance (P = 0.051). After adjusting for the effects of these potentially confounding variables identified by the log-rank analysis, significant predictors of early mortality on multivariate survival analysis were age, UAC of 40-200 mg/L (relative risk = 2.2, 95% confidence interval 1.3-3.7), more severe retinopathy (relative risk = 3.4, 95% confidence interval 1.9-6.0), and lens opacity (relative risk = 2.4, 95% confidence interval 1.6-3.8). CONCLUSIONS: The findings from this population-based cohort confirm the predictive power of microalbuminuria as a risk factor for mortality in NIDDM. In contrast to prospective studies of conventional cardiovascular risk factors in NIDDM, consistent evidence indicates that microalbuminuria is an independent predictor of excess mortality regardless of the collection procedure used.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1992

Mortality in patients with the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome treated with either foscarnet or ganciclovir for cytomegalovirus retinitis.

BACKGROUND AND METHODS: We performed a multicenter, randomized, unblinded clinical trial (the Foscarnet-Ganciclovir Cytomegalovirus Retinitis Trial) designed to compare ganciclovir with foscarnet in the treatment of cytomegalovirus retinitis in patients with the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). Of 234 patients, 127 were randomly assigned to ganciclovir and 107 to foscarnet; the study drugs were administered according to a common protocol at the 11 participating clinical centers. Antiretroviral therapy (with zidovudine, didanosine, or dideoxycytidine) was given as dictated by best medical judgment. The patients were followed for the progression of retinitis, visual loss, and death. RESULTS: Excess mortality in the ganciclovir group (as compared with the foscarnet group) led the Policy and Data Monitoring Board to recommend suspension of the treatment protocol 19 months after the trial started. As of that time, 65 of the patients assigned to ganciclovir had died, as compared with 36 of those assigned to foscarnet (51 percent vs. 34 percent, P = 0.007; relative risk, 1.79; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.17 to 2.73). The median survival was 8.5 months in the ganciclovir group and 12.6 months in the foscarnet group. Although the patients assigned to ganciclovir received less antiretroviral therapy on average than those assigned to foscarnet, the excess mortality could not be explained entirely by differences in exposure to antiretroviral drugs. In the forscarnet group, the only subgroup of patients identified as having excess mortality were those whose renal function was compromised at entry. There was no difference between the two treatment groups in the rate of progression of retinitis (relative risk, 0.95; P = 0.751). CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that for patients with AIDS, and cytomegalovirus retinitis, treatment with foscarnet offers a survival advantage over treatment with ganciclovir, although the patients may not tolerate foscarnet as well as ganciclovir.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
PubMed1998

Women in Denmark--why do they die so young? Risk factors for premature death.

"In Denmark the life expectancy of women has been declining since 1980, and is now the lowest of all OECD countries. Based upon analyses of the different trends in mortality of 35-64-year-old women in Denmark compared to women in Norway and Sweden, national differentials in external determinants of morbidity and premature mortality are described. The excess mortality of women in Denmark is linked to lifestyle factors: tobacco smoking, alcohol and drug consumption. We discuss the possible impact of other external factors...."

Alcohol Drinking↗
PubMed1981

The role of drinking and smoking in mortality from cancer and other causes in male alcoholics.

In a prospective study of a sample of male alcoholics, age standardized rates of death from cancer and other causes were compared with expectancies based on the mortality of the general male population of Ontario and that of U. S. veterans in the Dorn Study. A typical profile of mortality due to alcoholism was found with high excess mortality from cirrhosis, pneumonia, violent causes, lung cancer, and cancers of the upper digestive and respiratory tracts. There was no evidence of the associations recently reported in the literature between alcohol use and other cancers such as those of the stomach, colon, and pancreas. Comparison with veterans whose smoking resembled that of the alcoholics revealed similar rates of death from lung cancer, considerable excess mortality among the alcoholics from cancers of the upper digestive and respiratory tracts, and no difference in overall cancer mortality. Heavy alcohol use per se increases the risk of cancer at certain sites, but it may not increase the overall risk of neoplastic disease.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1988

Hospital-acquired candidemia. The attributable mortality and excess length of stay.

Between 1977 and 1984, estimates of hospital-acquired bloodstream infections caused by Candida species increased in the United States from 0.5 to 1.5 per 10,000 admissions (National Nosocomial Infection Study data). We examined crude and attributable mortality rates and excess length of stay in 88 closely matched pairs of cases and controls with illnesses occurring between July 1983 and December 1986. The crude mortality rates for cases and controls were 57% and 19%, respectively; thus the attributable mortality rate was 38% with a 95% confidence interval of 26% to 49%. The risk ratio was 2.94 with a 95% confidence interval of 1.95 to 4.43. The median length of stay was 48 days for all cases and 40 days for all controls. An analysis of the length of stay for the 34 matched pairs that survived showed a median of 70 days for cases and 40 days for controls. Candida bloodstream infections represented 10% of all nosocomial bloodstream infections in the period studied at our University Hospital; they are associated with a significant medical and economic burden well above that expected of the underlying diseases alone.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1996

The epidemic of visceral leishmaniasis in western Upper Nile, southern Sudan: course and impact from 1984 to 1994.

BACKGROUND: Although endemic in parts of southern Sudan, visceral leishmaniasis (VL) had not been reported in Western Upper Nile (WUN) until an epidemic was confirmed in 1989. A combination of circumstances created conditions for transmission among a population of mainly Nuer and Dinka people who had no immunity. The civil war which restarted in 1983 has been a major contributing cause and continues to hinder provision of treatment, data collection and control measures. METHODS: Since the first of three clinics to treat VL was established in WUN in 1989, data on the epidemic and mortality have been collected in seven retrospective surveys of villages and among patients. Adults were interviewed about surviving family members and those who had died since the epidemic came. Survey death rates are used here to estimate mortality from VL and 'excess mortality' above expected levels. RESULTS: The surveys found high mortality at all ages and suggest an overall death rate of 38-57% since the epidemic started in 1984, and up to 70% in the most affected areas. Both methods of estimation suggest that around 100,000 deaths, among about 280,000 people in the epidemic area, might be attributable to VL. CONCLUSIONS: This continuing epidemic has shown that VL can cause high mortality in an outbreak with astonishingly high infection rates. Population movement has been a major factor in transmission and poor nutritional status has probably contributed to the risk of clinical infection. Although over 17,000 people have been successfully treated for VL at the clinics in WUN, the disease is likely to become endemic there.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1999

Dormancy of mammary carcinoma after mastectomy.

BACKGROUND: The longest interval between primary treatment of breast cancer and tumor recurrence, i.e., the limit of breast cancer dormancy, defines the appropriate length of follow-up, the effectiveness of treatment, and curability (no excess mortality risk for patients relative to the general population) for the disease. To determine this limit, we analyzed long-term follow-up data from patients who underwent a radical mastectomy during a four-decade period at the University of Chicago Hospitals. METHODS: For 1547 patients operated on during the period from 1945 through mid-1987, the number of recurrences and deaths occurring within each postoperative year were tabulated, and the hazard rate for first recurrence or death from breast cancer was estimated by use of the actuarial method. The excess mortality rate was calculated for successive 5-year intervals, beginning at the time of mastectomy, by use of U.S. life tables and matching on the basis of age, race, and sex. RESULTS: Most recurrences occurred within the first 10 years after mastectomy. Recurrences were rare after 20 years; only one recurrence was reported among 192 patients followed for 26-45 years. Patients who had a recurrence within 5 years following mastectomy had shorter subsequent survival times than those whose recurrence appeared after 5 years (two-sided P = .0001). The excess death rate increased with pathologic stage of the primary tumor. Overall, there was evidence of excess mortality up to 20 years postsurgery (two-sided P = .009). CONCLUSIONS: The limit of breast cancer dormancy in this patient population appears to be between 20 and 25 years. After this time, recurrences were rare, and the mortality rate was no longer statistically significantly different from that of the general population. Patients surviving to this time without evidence of recurrence or contralateral breast cancer are probably cured.

Breast Neoplasms↗
PubMed2003

Uveal melanoma survival in Sweden from 1960 to 1998.

PURPOSE: To investigate the crude and relative survival rates in patients with uveal melanoma in Sweden during the period from 1960 to 1998. METHODS: A population-based national survey revealed 2997 cases of uveal melanoma in the Swedish Cancer Registry. The survival rates were calculated by the Hakulinen life-table method, using relative survival as an estimate for deaths due to uveal melanoma. The excess mortality rates were calculated with confidence intervals for the first 15 years after diagnosis. Multivariate regression analysis was undertaken to evaluate the influence of gender, age, and calendar period on relative survival the first 5 years after diagnosis. The underlying causes of deaths in the patients with uveal melanoma, as found in the Cause of Death Registry were also investigated. RESULTS: Up to December 31, 1998, 2003 patients had died. The 5-year crude survival rate was 60.3% and the relative survival 70.1%. After 10 years, the rates were 42.5% and 59.4%, respectively. Significant excess mortality existed up to 5.5 years after diagnosis. In the multivariate model, younger age (P < 0.001) and later calendar period (P = 0.002), but not gender (P = 0.117), were associated with better relative survival. Deaths due to uveal melanoma were misclassified in the Cause of Death Registry in more than half of the cases. CONCLUSIONS: This study, covering more than 95% of the uveal melanoma cases in the Swedish population revealed an improvement in relative survival rates for patients with uveal melanoma over time and a significant excess mortality up to 5.5 years after diagnosis.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1989

[Causes of death in surgically treated ulcer patients. Results from the Aarhus County Vagotomy Trial].

It is a well-known observation that patients submitted to operation for benign duodenal or gastric ulceration have reduced long-term survival as compared with the basic population. This excessive mortality may attributed to association between peptic ulceration and other conditions, particularly pulmonary disease, cirrhosis of the liver and suicide. In order to investigate whether there is a difference in the pattern of causes of death in patients treated with classical gastric resection and patients treated the vagotomy methods employed in recent years, an analysis of the causes of death in 169 patients was undertaken. During the years 1972-1977 these patients had been treated with selective gastric vagotomy with drainage, selective gastric vagotomy with antrectomy, parietal cell vagotomy with or without drainage for duodenal ulceration, pyloric ulceration, prepyloric ulceration or combined ulceration. This is termed the Aarhus County Vagotomy Trial. Comparison with the basic population reveals statistically significant excessive mortality from gastro-intestinal disease including the subgroups benign ulcer disease and cirrhosis of the liver and accidents including the subgroup of suicide. The mortality from malignant conditions did not differ significantly from the control group with the exception of significantly increased incidence of cancer of the stomach. The death ratio was increased for cancer in the lungs and pancreas but this was not statistically significant. These results are in agreement with reviews based on resection materials apart from the observation that a significant excess mortality from cancer of the stomach was demonstrated in this patient group in the present investigation which is not a constant finding in previous investigations. In addition, no increased incidence of benign pulmonary disease could be demonstrated.

Cause of Death↗