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Results for “Economic Model”

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At least 469 records · Page 26Linked to original sources
PubMed2001

An estimate of the economic effects of cattle tick (Boophilus microplus) infestation on Queensland dairy farms.

OBJECTIVE: To establish the cost to the Queensland dairy industry of cattle tick infestation and its control, excluding the costs incurred from control measures directed specifically at tick fever and morbidity and mortality arising from tick fever. STUDY DESIGN: Economic models are described that have been based on empirical data relating to liveweight and milk yield loss, and on a survey of control practices and tick infestation. The first two models were designed to estimate costs of control and losses resulting from tick infestation on a single dairy farm. The third model developed estimates of the cost of tick infestation for each of four regions within the tick-infested area of Queensland. RESULTS: The overall cost to the Queensland dairy industry of the cattle tick (excluding the costs associated specifically with tick fever) and based on 1998 management practices, was $4,096,000 per annum. About 49% of this cost was related to the costs of control and 51% to losses in production. CONCLUSION: Cattle tick infestation represents a significant impost on dairy producers in Queensland, and although the actual cost will change as deregulation results in economic changes in the industry, infestations of ticks will continue to be expensive to control.

Animal Husbandry↗
PubMed2003

Labour force participation among individuals with hepatitis C in the US.

BACKGROUND: In 1996, the number of persons newly infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) in the US was estimated to be 36 000. As a chronic disease that primarily affects younger persons, hepatitis C has the potential to influence employment considerably. OBJECTIVE: To estimate employment effects associated with hepatitis C morbidity. DESIGN: An economic model of labour supply, which used the outcome measure workforce participation (yes/no), was applied. STUDY PARTICIPANTS: The study samples (by gender) were comprised of persons 18-65 years of age, with and without serological evidence of HCV infection, and with normal or elevated levels of alanine aminotransferase (ALT) who participated in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III from 1988-1994. RESULTS: After controlling for the potential confounding effects of demographic, social, and economic factors, positive HCV status/normal ALT level in males was associated with a 10.7% reduction in labour force participation (when compared with negative HCV status). Positive HCV status and elevated ALT levels was associated with a 17.5% reduction in employment. The results for females were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Nationally, the employment response for HCV-positive status and elevated ALT levels translates into an excess non-employment of 48 000 males annually.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1995

The economics of orphan drug policy in the US. Can the legislation be improved?

This review of the US Orphan Drug Act (ODA) 1983 outlines how the ODA is intended to stimulate orphan drug research and development of drugs for rare diseases. We also evaluate the effectiveness of the ODA in the past decade and provide recommendations for ODA improvements in the future. The economic incentives embedded in the ODA are presented in a simple economic model, in which a guarantee of market exclusivity plays a central role in encouraging firms to pursue the development of orphan products. Some evidence suggests that this provision has been a major impetus for the rise in orphan drug applications and designations in the last decade. Market exclusivity is the key incentive for orphan drug research, and should be retained. Concerns about a limited number of highly successful 'blockbuster' orphan drugs should be evaluated in terms of the useful economic incentives. In the future, exceptionally high profits could be limited by more precise evaluation of disease prevalence, elasticity of demand, and the other uses of orphan compounds. We further recommend an expansion of the ODA tax credits and research grants programme and targeting of 'priority' diseases. We conclude that the ODA has been a valuable legislative initiative, but it can be strengthened with some simple extensions of the current incentives that it contains.

Drug Industry↗
PubMed2005

Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment, 1990-2080.

A comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems over this century is developed, up to 2080 and at a global level, albeit with significant regional detail. To this end an integrated ecological-economic modelling framework is employed, encompassing climate scenarios, agro-ecological zoning information, socio-economic drivers, as well as world food trade dynamics. Specifically, global simulations are performed using the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zone model, in conjunction with IIASAs global food system model, using climate variables from five different general circulation models, under four different socio-economic scenarios from the intergovernmental panel on climate change. First, impacts of different scenarios of climate change on bio-physical soil and crop growth determinants of yield are evaluated on a 5' X 5' latitude/longitude global grid; second, the extent of potential agricultural land and related potential crop production is computed. The detailed bio-physical results are then fed into an economic analysis, to assess how climate impacts may interact with alternative development pathways, and key trends expected over this century for food demand and production, and trade, as well as key composite indices such as risk of hunger and malnutrition, are computed. This modelling approach connects the relevant bio-physical and socio-economic variables within a unified and coherent framework to produce a global assessment of food production and security under climate change. The results from the study suggest that critical impact asymmetries due to both climate and socio-economic structures may deepen current production and consumption gaps between developed and developing world; it is suggested that adaptation of agricultural techniques will be central to limit potential damages under climate change.

Agriculture↗
PubMed2000

Analysis of the cost effectiveness of concurrent cisplatin-based chemoradiation in cervical cancer: implications from five randomized trials.

PURPOSE: Five recent phase III trials provide strong evidence that a new alternative therapy, cisplatin-based chemoradiation, is more effective than standard therapy using radiation alone in the treatment of advanced cervical cancer. We conducted a pharmacoeconomic analysis to determine whether the alternative cisplatin-based chemoradiation is cost effective as compared with standard therapy using radiation alone. METHODS: Using an economic model, we applied costs to resource utilization data derived from the cisplatin-based chemoradiation arms of these five randomized trials. We examined the cisplatin-based chemoradiation benefits in terms of increased median survival time. Incremental costs were divided by difference in survival to determine the cost per patient benefited. Incremental cost per year of life gained (IC/YLG) was calculated based on both published and estimated survival figures. RESULTS: Cost per year of life gained for cisplatin-based chemoradiation regimens varied from $2384 to $28,770 based on published survival and from $308 to $3712 based on estimated survival. Variations in regimen cost were largely dependent on treatment setting. Administration costs per patient for cisplatin and fluorouracil in the inpatient setting were $8839 compared with $3590 in the outpatient setting. CONCLUSION: The increased median survival cost per year of life gained with cisplatin-based chemoradiation (inpatient and outpatient settings) adds a substantial benefit at an acceptable cost compared with radiation therapy alone.

Adult↗
PubMed2002

Cost analysis model: US versus endometrial biopsy in evaluation of peri- and postmenopausal abnormal vaginal bleeding.

PURPOSE: To develop a cost minimization analysis model from the societal perspective of Medicare reimbursement to determine whether endometrial biopsy or transvaginal ultrasonography (US) is less expensive in evaluating peri- and postmenopausal women with abnormal vaginal bleeding and to assess whether this strategy is equally effective in populations at low and high risk for endometrial carcinoma. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Clinical algorithms were constructed that detailed diagnostic evaluation of the target population by using office-based endometrial biopsy versus transvaginal US as starting points. An economic model based on Medicare reimbursement and average wholesale drug price data and using disease prevalences and modality sensitivities from the scientific literature was then created to examine common bleeding causes in this population. All models included the cost of obtaining a tissue diagnosis for focal or diffuse endometrial thickening found at US. Modality sensitivities and prevalences of disease states were varied within the model to discover limits at which each modality became cheaper versus the other for assessing a population of women. RESULTS: Population prevalence of neoplastic disease is the principal factor governing total cost between competing diagnostic algorithms. In populations with 31% or less combined prevalence of endometrial carcinoma/atypical adenomatous hyperplasia, algorithms utilizing transvaginal US as the initial test are most cost minimizing. At combined endometrial carcinoma/atypical adenomatous hyperplasia prevalence of 10%, savings of up to 11% and 16% over pathways initiated with endometrial biopsy are predicted. In populations with a high incidence of neoplastic disease (>31%), biopsy-based algorithms should become least costly. CONCLUSION: Transvaginal US-initiated triage predicts substantial cost savings versus biopsy-based algorithms in evaluating typical populations of peri- and postmenopausal women with abnormal vaginal bleeding seen in clinical practice.

Biopsy, Needle↗
PubMed2006

Economic evaluations of beef bulls in an integrated supply chain.

Economic benefits from the use of expected progeny of a sample of beef bulls with genetic evaluations were calculated over an integrated supply chain for combinations of price discounts for intramuscular fat and LM area. Fixed backfat finish and marketing at the point of optimized gross margins were considered. An economic model was used to calculate average expected gross margins for a sample of bulls. Across-breed, age-constant genetic evaluations were used to predict carcass characteristics of progeny including weight, retail yield, intramuscular fat, and LM area, as well as input requirements including feed and housing as a function of time on feed. Proportion of retail cuts affected by price discounts was included in the calculations. Optimizing endpoints did not affect rankings to any extent relative to a fixed end point in this sample of bulls, as a result of fixed endpoints being similar to optimized endpoints for the economic situation considered. However, rank correlations were only 0.63 and 0.71 between rankings for no discount being applied and rankings with discounts for intramuscular fat and LM area, for fixed and optimized endpoints, respectively. We conclude that market prices are necessary considerations in choices of bulls to use in commercial beef production.

Adipose Tissue↗
PubMed1993

Simultaneous equations for hazards: marriage duration and fertility timing.

"This paper develops an approach to simultaneity among hazard equations which is similar in spirit to simultaneous Tobit models. It introduces a class of continuous time models which incorporates two forms of simultaneity across related processes--when the hazard rate of one process depends (1) on the hazard rate of another process or (2) on the actual current state of or prior outcomes of a related multi-episode process. This paper also develops an approach to modeling the notion of 'multiple clocks' in which one process may depend on the duration of a related process, in addition to its own. Maximum likelihood estimation is proposed based on specific parametric assumptions. The model is developed in the context of and empirically applied to the joint determination of marital duration and timing of marital conceptions."

Demography↗
PubMed1983

Long-term urban trends in developing countries: some further econometric results.

"Urban trends in developing countries have been studied in broad terms only, which has led to improbable projections for the future. In this paper, a two-equation model has been drawn up and tested by advanced econometric methods to pinpoint the role of explanatory factors and to discover possible trend reversals. Results on both scores have been positive."

Demography↗
PubMed1995

Endogenous population growth may imply chaos.

The authors consider a discrete-time neoclassical growth model with an endogenous rate of population growth. The resulting one-dimensional map for the capital intensity has a tilted z-shape. Using the theory of nonlinear dynamical systems, they obtain numerical results on the qualitative behavior of time paths for changing parameter values. Besides stable and periodic solutions, erratic time paths may result. In particular, myopic and far-sighted economies--assumed to be characterized by low and high savings rate respectively--are characterized by stable per capita capital stocks, while solutions with chaotic windows exist between these two extremes.

Austria↗
PubMed1984

Econometrically accounting for identities and restrictions in models of interregional migration.

"Interregional demographic identities and other restrictions are explicitly taken into account in a simple time-series model of interregional migration. This goal is accomplished through the imposition of adding-up constraints on the estimated coefficients of a multi-equation linear system and by testing for homogeneity and symmetry. The pitfalls of utilizing the described procedures for migration analysis and forecasting are discussed. Full implementation of the technique is shown to require far more time-series observations on interregional migration than are commonly available."

Demography↗
PubMed2001

Economic analysis of initial HIV treatment. Efavirenz- versus indinavir-containing triple therapy.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the clinical and economic outcomes associated with triple therapy containing efavirenz or indinavir and 2 nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs; zidovudine and lamivudine) in HIV-positive patients. DESIGN AND SETTING: An economic model based on viral load and CD4+ cell counts to predict long term outcomes such as progression to AIDS and AIDS-related death was developed and then analysed using data from a randomised clinical trial. Cost estimates from the healthcare system perspective were based on data from 6 state, all-payor databases, the AIDS Cost and Services Utilisation Study, and other literature. Analyses were carried out for time horizons between 5 and 15 years. PATIENTS AND INTERVENTIONS: HIV-positive patients with limited exposure to NRTIs. Initial regimens consisted of efavirenz or indinavir, each combined with 2 NRTIs. A maximum of 2 switches to other regimens was permitted. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES AND RESULTS: The efavirenz-containing triple therapy regimen was predicted to prolong survival at a savings of up to 10,923 US dollars (1998 values) relative to initial therapy with the indinavir-containing regimen. Patients who receive efavirenz are expected to have 11% greater survival at 5 years and fewer treatment failures (28 vs 52%, at 2 years). Overall, the economic and health benefits predicted for the efavirenz-containing regimen were robust to reasonable variation in key parameters. CONCLUSIONS: The superior clinical trial outcomes for efavirenz-containing regimens should translate into substantial economic and health benefits.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
PubMed1996

Cost analysis of hospital treatment--two chemotherapic regimens for non-surgical non-small cell lung cancer. GFPC (Groupe Français Pneumo Cancérologie)

STUDY OBJECTIVES: compare the costs of two regimens of chemotherapy. Apply weighted costs to an economic model in a hospital perspective. DESIGN: prospective randomized study of two groups of patients receiving: branch B, mitomycin-navelbine-cisplatin (MNP); branch A, mitomycin-vindesine-cisplatin (MVP). SETTING: pneumologic units of University and non-University hospitals. METHODS: clinical evaluation during chemotherapy incorporated events enabling construction of an event tree. Direct hospital costs included those of: cytostatic agents, materials used and nursing time; costs of side-effects (medical and paramedical time, diagnostic and therapeutic examinations). Effectiveness was measured in terms of response rates. PATIENTS: 209 patients were included, 100 in arm B, 109 in arm A. RESULTS: the response rates were 25% in branch B, 17% in branch A. In the hypothesis of equivalence of the two strategies, we compared only overall mean cost per patient. Despite the fact arm B needed more hospital injections, the difference was low (+4.6%). For a difference in effectiveness, the opposite was observed for the average cost-effectiveness ratio: arm B was less costly (-12 339.40 FF for a responder). CONCLUSION: incorporation of economic parameters was found to have a bearing on the choice of chemotherapeutic regimen for the treatment of non-small cell lung cancer. Economic analyses of this kind can provide useful extra information for rational therapeutic decisions.

Adult↗
PubMed2004

Labor market costs of illness: prevalence matters.

We present a model of the labor market effects of health impairments. In particular, we describe several economic models in which health affects worker productivity and the demand for and supply of market labor services. These models provide a framework for estimating the social cost of prevalent health impairments - a necessary step in conducting cost-benefit analyses and in determining the cost-effectiveness of potential health interventions from a broader social perspective. Our approach suggests that several measures used in the literature provide an incomplete and systematically biased assessment of the economic impact of health impairment or of the treatment of illness and impairment. The problem arises because of the reliance on an approximation at the firm level and from the bias from the neglect of the effect of impairment in shifting the labor market equilibrium. If the illness is prevalent, the effects on labor market equilibrium wage rates could be substantial. In addition, many analyses also ignore the effects of illness on producers' surplus.

Alcoholism↗