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PubMed1992

Weather conditions prior to major outbreaks of meningococcal meningitis in the United Kingdom.

Meningitis has been a notifiable disease in the United Kingdom for some 70 years. Only in recent years, stimulated by the work of the Meningitis Trust, has there been a more general awareness of the geographical distribution of cases, with certain locations being more prone than others to episodic outbreaks of the disease. In this paper we consider weather conditions prior to major outbreaks of meningitis in Hereford and Worcester, and Cleveland and the northwest Midlands. Possible causal links to air quality and large temporal changes of relative humidity are found from analysis of case data. However, whilst the diagnostic studies reported are encouraging, an independent test of the relative humidity gradient criterion using independent data for Gloucester was not successful. It is clear that meteorological and air quality data actually of the area from which the disease is reported must be analysed more fully to sustain or overrule the hypothesis proposed. In addition, the need for further clinical research into the likelihood of disease triggers generated by atmospheric smoke, dust and moisture is identified.

Disease Outbreaks↗
PubMed1999

Contribution of weather to the seasonality of distal forearm fractures: a population-based study in Rochester, Minnesota.

Distal forearm fractures due to falls were more frequent in the winter (p < 0.0001) among Rochester men and women 35 years of age or older in 1952-89. The winter excess was partially explained by a greater relative risk of distal forearm fractures on days with freezing rain (1.65; 95% CI 1.28-2.13) or snow (1.42; 95% CI 1.17-1.74) among women under 65 years of age and on days with freezing rain (1.63; 95% CI 1.23-2.17) among older women. The greater seasonality of forearm compared with hip fractures is explained by the fact that more of them occur out-of-doors. However, residual effects of season after adjusting for daily weather conditions suggest that other factors may play a role.

Accidental Falls↗
PubMed2002

Association between weather conditions and the number of patients at the emergency room in an Argentine hospital.

The aim of this paper is to study the relationships between hospital emergencies and weather conditions by analysing summer and winter cases of patients requiring attention at the emergency room of a hospital in the city of Buenos Aires, Argentina. Hospital data have been sorted into seven different diagnostic groups as follows: (1) respiratory, cardiovascular and chest-pain complaints; (2) digestive, genitourinary and abdominal complaints; (3) neurological and psychopathological disorders; (4) infections; (5) contusion and crushing, bone and muscle complaints; (6) skin and allergies and (7) miscellaneous complaints. In general, there is an increase of 16.7% in winter while, for group 2 and group 6, there are more patients in summer, 54% and 75% respectively. In summer, the total number of patients for group 6 shows a significant positive correlation with temperature and dew-point temperature, and a negative correlation with the sea-level pressure for the same day. In winter, the same relationship exists, however its correlation is not as strong. The lags observed between these three variables: maximum dew-point temperature, maximum temperature, minimum air pressure and the peaks in admissions are 1, 2 and 4 days respectively. In winter, increases in temperature and dew point and decreases in pressure are followed by a peak in admissions for group 2. In winter, there are significantly more cases in group 5 on warm, dry days and on warm, wet days in the summer.

Argentina↗
PubMed2005

Frequency of emergency room visits for childhood asthma in Ottawa, Canada: the role of weather.

The aim of this study was to evaluate associations between meteorological conditions and the number of emergency department visits for asthma in a children's hospital in Ottawa, Canada. A case-crossover study design was used. Hospital emergency department visits for asthma between 1992 and 2000 were identified based on patients' presenting complaints. We obtained hourly measures for the following meteorological variables: wind speed, temperature, atmospheric pressure, relative humidity, and visibility. Particular emphasis was placed on exploring the association between asthma visits and fog, thunderstorms, snow, and liquid and freezing forms of precipitation. In total, there were 18,970 asthma visits among children between 2 and 15 years of age. The number of visits and weather characteristics were grouped into 6 h case and control intervals. The occurrence of fog or liquid precipitation was associated with an increased number of asthma visits, while snow was associated with a reduced number (P<0.05). Stratified analyses by season found no association in any of the four calendar intervals between the number of asthma visits and visibility, change in relative humidity and change in temperature. In contrast, summertime thunderstorm activity was associated with an odds ratio of 1.35 (95% CI=1.02-1.77) relative to summer periods with no activity. Models that incorporate calendar and meteorological data may help emergency departments to more efficiently allocate resources needed to treat children presenting with respiratory distress.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2006

Population models for threshold-based control of Tetranychus urticae in small-scale Kenyan tomato fields and for evaluating weather and host plant species effects.

The spatial distribution of motile life stages of the two-spotted spider mite Tetranychus urticae Koch in Kenyan small-scale tomato fields was described by Taylor's power law and an enumerative sampling plan was designed for research purposes. The exponential increase of T. urticae populations during three growing seasons permits the development and use of a simple exponential model for the design of a threshold-based chemical control system. For this purpose, a critical threshold of 440 motile mites per sample unit at the end of the growing season (12 weeks after transplanting) was translated into a proportion of 0.83 infested units in sample 3, i.e. five weeks after transplanting. A sequential binomial sampling plan with respect to the proportion of 0.83, five weeks after transplanting, was designed. The exponential model was extended to account for the influence of weather and host plant species. Model development and parameter estimation were based on three data sets (Kenyan tomato fields, Italian and Californian strawberry fields). The model satisfactorily predicted a positive influence on growth rates by (i) changing the host plant from tomato to strawberry, and (ii) temperature, while a negative effect resulted from (iii) rainfall; both (ii) and (iii) are controlled by temperature-rainfall interactions. In contrast, the estimated parameter values did not satisfactorily describe the expected responses at specific temperature and rainfall values. Nevertheless, the model allowed the rating of host plant species in the field. A fourth data set from Swiss apple orchards was used to test the model, and population build-up on the apple host plant appeared to be higher than on tomatoes but lower than on strawberry.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

The effect of weather on the occurrence and magnitude of periparturient rise in trichostronglyid nematode egg output in Dorper ewes in a semi-arid area of Kajiado District of Kenya.

An investigation was carried out to assess the effects of weather on the occurrence and magnitude of the periparturient rise (PPR) in trichostrongylid nematode egg output in breeding Dorper ewes. The study was conducted over three breeding seasons on a ranch in the semi-arid area of Kajiado District in Kenya between June 1999 and December 2001. During each breeding season 20 ewes randomly selected from the breeding stock and 20 others selected from the unmated yearlings were monitored for faecal strongyle egg counts every 3 weeks. The lambing seasons were timed to coincide with the onset of the short rains (October-November 1999), the mid-short rains (November-December 2000) and the end of the dry season (September-October 2001). In each season higher egg outputs were recorded in the peri-parturient ewes compared to the unmated yearlings. The highest PPR occurred in September 2001, when lambing coincided with the end of the dry season, possibly as a result of maturation of hypobiotic larvae. The lowest PPR occurred in November 2000 when the onset of lambing coincided with the mid-short rains, possibly owing to low pasture infectivity associated with a long dry spell between January and October of the same year. The results of this study indicate that PPR occurred when lambing coincided with both the wet and the dry seasons. However, the magnitude was greatly influenced by the season when lambing occurred. It was also influenced by resumption of development of hypobiotic larvae and the nutritional status of the ewes. Not only should control of gastrointestinal nematode parasites in this area aim at preventing the occurrence of PPR by treating ewes 2-3 weeks before they are to lamb and during lactation, but the anthelmintic used must also eliminate hypobiotic larvae. In addition, the animals must be given supplementary feeding during this period.

Animals↗
PubMed1995

Measuring the contribution of randomness, exposure, weather, and daylight to the variation in road accident counts.

Road accident counts are influenced by random variation as well as by various systematic, causal factors. To study these issues, a four-country, segmented data base has been compiled, each segment consisting of monthly accident counts, along with candidate explanatory factors, in the various counties (provinces) of Denmark, Finland, Norway, or Sweden. Using a generalized Poisson regression model, we are able to decompose the variation in accident counts into parts attributable to randomness, exposure, weather, daylight, or changing reporting routines and speed limits. To this purpose, a set of specialized goodness-of-fit measures have been developed, taking explicit account of the inevitable amount of random variation that would be present in any set of accident counts, no matter how well known the accident generating Poisson process. Pure randomness is seen to "explain" a major part of the variation in smaller accident counts (e.g. fatal accidents per county per month), while exposure is the dominant systematic determinant. The relationship between exposure and injury accidents appears to be almost proportional, while it is less than proportional in the case of fatal accidents or death victims. Together, randomness and exposure account for 80% to 90% of the observable variation in our data sets. A surprisingly large share of the variation in road casualty counts is thus explicable in terms of factors not ordinarily within the realm of traffic safety policy. In view of this observation, it may seem unlikely that very substantial reductions in the accident toll can be achieved without a decrease in the one most important systematic determinant: the traffic volume.

Accidents, Traffic↗
PubMed1992

The influence of weather and egg contamination on the development of third-stage larvae of Cooperia oncophora on pasture.

The influence of weather and egg contamination on the dynamics of herbage contamination with infective larave of Cooperia oncophora was investigated on artificially contaminated grass plots and in a grazing experiment with 24 first-year grazing calves from May to October 1987 in Lower Saxony, Germany. On the experimental plots the larval translation was highest at the beginning of July and in the second part of September, following high mean weekly temperatures. Between July and September peak recovery of larvae from herbage occurred 4 weeks after contamination. A seasonal pattern of larval translation similar to that on the experimental plots could be demonstrated on the grazed pastures when the number of larvae per m2 of pasture had been adjusted to the previous egg output by means of a contamination index. The resulting 'relative larval density' is regarded as a good indicator for larval development on pasture. From July to September the larval population on pasture resulted mainly from the egg contamination 2-3 weeks earlier. The short persistence of the infective larvae on herbage was probably due to the frequent and heavy rainfall throughout the season, causing a passive washout of larvae into the soil. On single pastures the larval density started to increase within 1 week after the calves had first contact with these fields. The impact of the calves on the distribution of larvae is discussed.

Animals↗
PubMed1987

Sudden infant deaths and clear weather in a subtropical environment.

Particulate pollution levels were found to decrease, on average, over the 10-day period preceding SIDS incidence in a study of 369 cases over 15 years in Brisbane, Australia. This unexpected association could not be explained by correlations between daily pollution levels and daily precipitation, wind velocity, air temperature or cloud. Of the meterological variables studied, which might have given rise to the particulate-SIDS associations, only visibility showed associations with SIDS incidence. Average visibility increased prior to SIDS in both summer and winter cases. It is hypothesised that these findings may be due to either direct effects of light, or due to increased outdoor exposure of infants and/or to changes in parental behaviour during clear weather.

Australia↗
PubMed2005

Air pollution, weather, and respiratory emergency room visits in two northern New England cities: an ecological time-series study.

Daily emergency room (ER) visits for all respiratory (ICD-9 460-519) and asthma (ICD-9 493) were compared with daily sulfur dioxide (SO2), ozone (O3), and weather variables over the period 1998-2000 in Portland, Maine (population 248,000), and 1996-2000 in Manchester, New Hampshire (population 176,000). Seasonal variability was removed from all variables using nonparametric smoothed function (LOESS) of day of study. Generalized additive models were used to estimate the effect of elevated levels of pollutants on ER visits. Relative risks of pollutants are reported over their interquartile range (IQR, the 75th -25th percentile pollutant values). In Portland, an IQR increase in SO2 was associated with a 5% (95% CI 2-7%) increase in all respiratory ER visits and a 6% (95% CI 1-12%) increase in asthma visits. An IQR increase in O3 was associated with a 5% (95% CI 1-10%) increase in Portland asthmatic ER visits. No significant associations were found in Manchester, New Hampshire, possibly due to statistical limitations of analyzing a smaller population. The absence of statistical evidence for a relationship should not be used as evidence of no relationship. This analysis reveals that, on a daily basis, elevated SO2 and O3 have a significant impact on public health in Portland, Maine.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2004

Natural turbidity variability and weather forecasts in risk management of anthropogenic sediment discharge near sensitive environments.

Coastal development activities can cause local increases in turbidity and sedimentation. This study characterises the spatial and temporal variability of turbidity near an inshore fringing coral reef in the central Great Barrier Reef, under a wide range of natural conditions. Based on the observed natural variability, we outline a risk management scheme to minimise the impact of construction-related turbidity increases. Comparison of control and impact sites proved unusable for real-time management of turbidity risks. Instead, we suggest using one standard deviation from ambient conditions as a possible conservative upper limit of an acceptable projected increase in turbidity. In addition, the use of regional weather forecast as a proxy for natural turbidity is assessed. This approach is simple and cheap but also has limitations in very rough conditions, when an anthropogenic turbidity increase could prove fatal to corals that are already stressed under natural conditions.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

Complex hybrid models combining deterministic and machine learning components for numerical climate modeling and weather prediction.

A new practical application of neural network (NN) techniques to environmental numerical modeling has been developed. Namely, a new type of numerical model, a complex hybrid environmental model based on a synergetic combination of deterministic and machine learning model components, has been introduced. Conceptual and practical possibilities of developing hybrid models are discussed in this paper for applications to climate modeling and weather prediction. The approach presented here uses NN as a statistical or machine learning technique to develop highly accurate and fast emulations for time consuming model physics components (model physics parameterizations). The NN emulations of the most time consuming model physics components, short and long wave radiation parameterizations or full model radiation, presented in this paper are combined with the remaining deterministic components (like model dynamics) of the original complex environmental model--a general circulation model or global climate model (GCM)--to constitute a hybrid GCM (HGCM). The parallel GCM and HGCM simulations produce very similar results but HGCM is significantly faster. The speed-up of model calculations opens the opportunity for model improvement. Examples of developed HGCMs illustrate the feasibility and efficiency of the new approach for modeling complex multidimensional interdisciplinary systems.

Artificial Intelligence↗
PubMed2005

Uranium and thorium in weathering and pedogenetic profiles developed on granitic rocks from NW Spain.

Uranium and thorium were analyzed in seven weathering and pedogenetic soil profiles developed on granitic rocks from NW Spain. Concentrations were measured by X-ray fluorescence spectrometry (XRF) and the U- and Th-bearing minerals were studied by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and energy dispersive X-ray spectrometry (EDS). Both elements were determined in rock, bulk soil and in different grain-size fractions (sand: 2000-50 microm, silt: 50-2 microm, and clay: <2 microm). U concentrations in the rock varied between 5.3 and 27.7 mg kg(-1) and Th concentrations from 5.5 to 50.7 mg kg(-1). The most alkalic rocks can be considered as U-rich granites. Bulk soil U and Th concentrations are similar to those of the rocks (4.8-29.2 and 7.4-56.7 mg kg(-1), respectively), but in the grain-size fractions both elements show the lowest concentrations in the sand and the highest in the clay. In the latter, concentrations are always higher than those of the rocks, particularly in the C horizons with enrichments up to 4 times for U and 5 times for Th. The concentration profiles and the ratios to the parent rock suggest that U and Th are leached from the surface soil and accumulate in the deeper horizons. Mass balance calculations, using Ti as a reference immobile element, also support U and Th leaching in the solum and supergene enrichment in bottom horizons. Leaching seems to be more intense on horizons with gravel content higher than 20%. The leaching of U and Th in the topmost horizons and the accumulation in the bottom soil horizons can be considered as a natural attenuation of the impact of these radiogenic elements in the environment. But their enrichment in the potentially airborne fraction poses some risk of redistribution in the ecosystems.

Environmental Monitoring↗
PubMed2004

Trace element carriers in combined sewer during dry and wet weather: an electron microscope investigation.

The nature of trace element carriers contained in sewage and combined sewer overflow (CSO) was investigated by TEM-EDX-Electron diffraction and SEM-EDX. During dry weather, chalcophile elements were found to accumulate in sewer sediments as early diagenetic sulfide phases. The sulfurization of some metal alloys was also evidenced. Other heavy metal carriers detected in sewage include metal alloys, some iron oxihydroxide phases and neoformed phosphate minerals such as anapaite. During rain events, the detailed characterization of individual mineral species allowed to differentiate the contributions from various specific sources. Metal plating particles, barite from automobile brake, or rare earth oxides from catalytic exhaust pipes, originate from road runoff, whereas PbSn alloys and lead carbonates are attributed to zinc-works from roofs and paint from building siding. Soil contribution can be traced by the presence of clay minerals, iron oxihydroxides, zircons and rare earth phosphates. However, the most abundant heavy metal carriers in CSO samples were the sulfide particles eroded from sewer sediments. The evolution of relative abundances of trace element carriers during a single storm event, suggests that the pollution due to the "first flush" effect principally results from the sewer stock of sulfides and previously deposited metal alloys, rather than from urban surface runoff.

Aluminum Silicates↗
PubMed2005

Modeling the dry-weather tidal cycling of fecal indicator bacteria in surface waters of an intertidal wetland.

Recreational water quality at beaches in California and elsewhere is often poor near the outlets of rivers, estuaries, and lagoons. This condition has prompted interest in the role of wetlands in modulating surface water concentrations of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB), the basis of water quality standards internationally. A model was developed and applied to predict the dry-weather tidal cycling of FIB in Talbert Marsh, an estuarine, intertidal wetland in Huntington Beach, California, in response to loads from urban runoff, bird feces, and resuspended sediments. The model predicts the advection, dispersion and die-off of total coliform, Escherichia coli, and enterococci using a depth-integrated formulation. We find that urban runoff and resuspension of contaminated wetland sediments are responsible for surface water concentrations of FIB in the wetland. Model predictions show that urban runoff controls surface water concentrations at inland sites and sediment resuspension controls surface water concentrations near the mouth. Direct wash-off of bird feces into the surface water is not a significant contributor, although bird feces can contribute to the sediment bacteria load. The key parameters needed to accurately predict FIB concentrations, using a validated hydrodynamic model, are: the load due to urban runoff, sediment erodibility parameters, and sediment concentrations and surface water die-off rates of enteric bacteria. In the present study, literature values for sediment erodibility and water column die-off rates are used and average concentrations of FIB are predicted within 1/2 log unit of measurements. Total coliform are predicted more accurately than E. coli or enterococci, both in terms of magnitude and tidal variability. Since wetland-dependent animals are natural sources of FIB, and FIB survive for long periods of time and may multiply in wetland sediments, these results highlight limitations of FIB as indicators of human fecal pollution in and near wetlands.

California↗
PubMed1999

Color stability of facial silicone prosthetic polymers after outdoor weathering.

STATEMENT OF PROBLEM: Color deterioration of silicone prosthetic elastomers affects the life expectancy of facial prostheses in a service environment. PURPOSE: This study investigated the color stability of 3 nonpigmented silicone elastomers (Silskin 2000, Elastosil M3500, Ideal) exposed to outdoor weathering for 1 year. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A tristimulus colorimeter was used to evaluate the color differences (DeltaE*) of the silicone elastomers every 2 months. Ten disk-shaped specimens for each material were tested. Data were analyzed with a repeated measures ANOVA and Student-Newman-Keuls test at a significance level of alpha = .05. RESULTS: All silicone elastomers showed visually detectable, mean color differences (DeltaE* > 2.0), that ranged from 2.13 to 3.98. Silskin 2000 showed greater color differences (P <.05) compared with Elastosil M3500 and Ideal, which showed similar behavior (P >.05). CONCLUSION: Outdoor exposure of silicone facial elastomers for 1 year resulted in visually detectable color differences. Duration of exposure and silicone elastomer were significant factors that affected color stability. Silskin 2000 was significantly less color stable than Elastosil M3500 and Ideal, which were not statistically significantly different from each other.

Analysis of Variance↗
PubMed2002

Weather system scale variation in radon-222 concentration of indoor air.

Radon-222 concentration measurements using the charcoal adsorption technique were made continuously over periods of up to 2 years in three houses, two rural and one urban. The measurement records for all houses show a variation in radon concentration on a seasonal scale on which is superimposed shorter periods of relatively large magnitude fluctuations on a scale longer than the typically 4-5-day measurement duration. Regression analysis using meteorological data from a weather station remote from the houses shows that much of the variation in both monthly and 3-day mean radon concentration can be explained by regional scale external temperature variation. Wind speed, rainfall and barometric pressure apparently influence the 3-day values to a much smaller degree. Differences in the radon levels between the houses reflect the different geological radon potential of the two areas, with notably higher levels over limestone than glacial till and sandstone. Other differences within and between houses reflect house construction and occupancy factors.

Adsorption↗
PubMed2004

Effect of turning regime and seasonal weather conditions on nitrogen and phosphorus losses during aerobic composting of cattle manure.

Cattle manure from stock bedded on straw was aerobically composted under ambient conditions, turning with either a tractor-mounted front-end loader or a rear discharge manure spreader. Three composting experiments, each of approximately four months duration, were conducted to investigate the effect of turning regime and seasonal weather conditions on nitrogen and phosphorus losses during aerobic composting of cattle manure. Manure stacks of 12-15 m(3) initial volume were constructed in separate 5 x 5 m concrete compartments. Experiment 1 (January-April 1999) compared manure heaps turned once (T1) or three times (T3) using a front-end loader with an unturned static (S) control manure stack. Experiment 2 (June-September 1999) compared the same treatments as Experiment 1. Experiment 3 (September-December 1999) compared T1 and T3 turning regimes using a front end loader with turning by a rear-discharge spreader (TR1 and TR1T2) for more effective aeration of the manure. Turning took place at 6 weeks for the one turn treatments, and after 2, 6 and 10 weeks for the three turn treatments. Leachate losses were dominated by NH(4)-N during the first three weeks of composting, after which time NH4-N and NO3-N concentrations in leachates were approximately the same, in the range 0-20 mg N l(-1). The concentrations of both NH4-N and NO3-N in leachate were higher after turning. Molybdate-reactive P concentrations in leachate tended not to be significantly influenced by turning regime. Gaseous losses of NH3 and N2O rose quickly during the initial phases of composting, peaking at 152 g N t(-1) d(-1) for the T3 treatment. Mean NH3 emission rate (25-252 g N t(-1) d(-1)) for the first two weeks of Experiment 2 conducted during the period June-September were an order of magnitude greater (1-10 g N t(-1) d(-1)) than Experiment 3, conducted during the colder, wetter autumn period (September-December). Nitrous oxide emission rates ranged between 1-14 g N t(-1) d(-1) and showed little influence of turning regime. Total N and P concentrations in turned (T) and static (S) manure were elevated at the end of all experiments, due to loss of dry matter. Mean total N losses were 30.4% (T1) and 36.8% (T3) and total P losses 28.2% (T1) and 27.4% (T3).

Agriculture↗