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PubMed2001

Secular trends in congenital anomaly-related fetal and infant mortality in Canada, 1985-1996.

Prenatal diagnosis of major congenital anomalies and subsequent termination of affected pregnancies has been widely available as part of routine obstetric care in recent years. In this study, vital statistical data on stillbirths, live births, and infant deaths were used to examine secular trends in gestational age-specific and category-specific fetal and infant mortality due to congenital anomalies in Canada (excluding Ontario and Newfoundland) from 1985-1996. Comparisons of the rates between 1985-1987 and 1994-1996 were made using relative risks and 95% confidence intervals (CI). The overall fetal mortality rate due to congenital anomalies increased significantly, from 68.0 per 100,000 total births in 1985-1987 to 78.6 per 100,000 total births in 1994-1996, while the overall infant mortality rate due to congenital anomalies decreased significantly over the same period, from 2.47 to 1.79 per 1,000 live births. The fetal death rate due to congenital anomalies at 20-21 weeks of gestation increased approximately five-fold (relative risk [RR] = 4.83, 95% CI = 3.28-7.11) from 4.5 to 21.5 per 100,000 fetuses at risk, while the rate at 37-41 weeks decreased by 30% (RR = 0.70, 95% CI = 0.50-0.97). Fetal death rates among pregnancies at 20-25 weeks of gestation increased in all categories of congenital anomaly except anencephaly and respiratory system anomalies. Congenital anomaly-related fetal and infant deaths have increased at early gestation but declined at later gestation in Canada. These changes suggest an increase in prenatal diagnosis and selective termination of pregnancies with congenital anomalies in recent years.

Canada↗
PubMed2002

Some aspects of secular changes in Hungary over the twentieth century.

Growth and maturation are considered the most reliable indicators of health status. Their progression rates in turn are strongly influenced by nutrition and socio-economic status, a well-documented relationship. The pattern of the so-called positive secular changes, i.e. the increase in size and earlier maturation, fits the populations' historical model of economic development very well. The historical, political and economic changes occurring in this century in Hungary have had a remarkably strong impact. Until World War I Hungary was an agrarian part of the Austro-Hungarian monarchy, its ethnic composition was most variegated. Both World Wars caused fundamental changes, namely in respect of post-war Hungary they were associated with marked territorial losses and considerable population mobility. In interpreting the developmental differences in the data collected before and after these wars one should take account of the important facts that, in addition to the changes in socio-economic conditions, affected the gene pool of the populations in Hungary. Over the past 100 years profound changes have occurred in the mean body size, growth rate and timing of maturation of the country's population. This paper is a brief analytic summary of the tendencies observed in adult stature, maturation and some socio-economic conditions. It also compares the cohorts of sub-populations as reflected by the reviewed reports. In summarizing the change in adult stature estimated by the data on recruits, soldiers and students of higher education, it could be stated that adult mean stature had become markedly taller in Hungary since the end of the fifties. However, any estimation of the absolute increment and the exact rate is severely biased by the variable character of the samples' representativeness. Similar problems arose in dealing with sexual maturation, because the retrospective and status-quo methods of assessment were found incomparable. Nevertheless, menarche was observed to have shifted to an appreciably younger age lately, a trend that by the end of the 20th century seemed to have reached a more or less stable level.

Anthropology, Physical↗
PubMed2003

Secular changes in tooth size and dental arch dimensions in the mixed dentition.

Secular changes in the mixed dentition were studied. Permanent tooth size and dental arch dimensions were examined in Norwegian children born in the 1960s and 1980s, Swedish children born in the 1960s and 1980s, Norwegian Sami children born in the 1980s, and a sample of Norwegian skulls dating from the 14th to the 19th century. The Norwegian Sami children were nomadic in the summertime. A sample of pigs was studied before and after a maceration process to determine what dimensional changes might occur in such a process. A shrinkage of 0.3%-1.7% was found. This information was used when the skulls were compared with the modern groups. Lateral dental arch lengths were shorter in the children born in the 1960s compared with the children born in the 1980s. This was a result of the higher prevalence of caries in the second deciduous molars in the 1960s groups. Children who had lost a deciduous canine prematurely were found to have smaller dental arch perimeters. When compared with other data, this was blamed on a pre-existing crowding. Permanent tooth size was smaller in the skulls compared with the modern groups. Improved nutrition is considered to be the main reason for the difference. Relative dental arch space differed in the group born in the 1960s from that in the other groups, indicating a greater prevalence of crowding in the former. Relative dental arch space in the skulls and in the group born in the 1980s was similar. A more traditional way of living, as practised by the Sami group in this thesis, was not favorable for relative dental arch space. The transverse intermaxillary relation in boys changed from the 1960s to the 1980s, which indicated that the 1980s group ran a greater risk of developing a posterior cross-bite. Before the same conclusion could be made in the girls, the mesial drift of the first permanent molars had to be corrected for, because of a higher prevalence of caries in the 1960s group. The sex-pooled analysis of the skulls and the contemporary groups revealed that the risk for developing a posterior cross-bite in the 1980s group was greater than in the skulls. The skulls had smaller arch depths than the modern groups.

Adolescent↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Secular trends in self-reported violent activity among Ontario students, 1983-2001.

INTRODUCTION: This paper examines secular trends in violence among Ontario students between 1983 and 2001, and variation by sex. METHODS: Using data from the Ontario Student Drug Use Survey, we examined self-reports of assault, weapon carrying, and gang fighting based on 10 cross-sectional surveys from 1983 to 2001. Respondents were derived from representative samples of Ontario students in grades 7, 9, 11, and 13 (OAC) who completed in-class anonymous self-administered surveys. Data were weighted to account for the complex survey design and analyzed using logit trend analyses. RESULTS: Short-term trends (1991-2001) showed assault, weapon carrying, and gang fighting have been on downward trajectories since the mid-1990s, reaching the lowest prevalence in 2001 among males and females. Long-term trends (1983-2001) among 11th-graders showed assault increased between 1985 and 1999, but declined in 2001. Gang fighting among males increased during the late 1980s and again during the mid-1990s, but declined between 1997 and 2001. Gang fighting among females remained at a stable, low level. DISCUSSION: Future monitoring is necessary to understand whether the decline in self-reported violent behaviour among adolescents is robust.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1992

Secular trend of menarcheal age in southern Chinese girls.

Southern Chinese girls aged 11 years and 9 months to 12 years and 3 months in Hong Kong have a mean menarcheal age of 11.50 years (standard deviation of 0.47) using the recollection method. Highly significant differences are found when compared to the 12-year-old girls in Hong Kong studied in the past decades. Therefore, a secular trend of earlier menarcheal age is demonstrated.

Age Factors↗
PubMed1992

Secular trends of stature and weight of Chinese girls.

Stature and weight were studied in 123 12-year-old Southern Chinese girls born and brought up in Hong Kong. The mean stature was 147.22 centimetres with a standard deviation of 6.65 centimetres. The mean body weight was 37.11 kilograms with the standard deviation being 7.39 kilograms. Secular trend of increased body size was demonstrated. The increase was more marked in the lower percentile groups.

Asian People↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Emergence of permanent teeth: secular trends and variance in a modern sample.

The purpose of this study was to update the most commonly used tables of dental eruption (emergence), which are more than 50 years old and do not distinguish between ethnic and socio-economic groups. Clinical emergence data was collected for a modern sample of 574 French children and adolescents, aged 5.5 years to 15 years (294 girls and 280 boys). With respect to the present sample, the commonly used eruption tables of Hurme were accurate for most aspects of mandibular emergence, but were seriously flawed for the maxillary arch. Emergence of all permanent maxillary teeth varied by at least 3 months from Hurme's means; lateral incisors, canines, and second molars erupted earlier, but both premolars emerged later. Compared to similar French data collected in 1958, there appears to be a secular trend for later eruption of the maxillary premolars and earlier emergence of permanent second molars. These changes may reflect an evolutionary reduction in the size of the maxilla, a progressive decrease in genetic control of permanent canines, as well as first and second premolars, and/or progress in dental preventive measures to conserve primary molars. From a clinical perspective, appropriate dental emergence data are essential for effectively intercepting developmental malocclusions in children and adolescents.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1992

[The secular trend of standing height in adolescent girls from longitudinal data].

In this study which is based on the longitudinal data aggregated from health examination records, the subjects consist of 287 girls who attended a private school in Tokyo. The subjects are divided into five groups according to birth year from 1950 to 1970 in order to find secular trend during twenty years with one-way analysis of variance. Age at Peak Height Velocity (APHV), Peak Height Velocity (PHV) and Height attained at Peak Height Velocity (HPHV) were computed in each height velocity curve derived from differential calculus of height distance curve. The result show that HPHV is gradually getting taller by year although APHV and PHV do not change. It may be considered that our subjects of the private school are girls of families in the relatively upper-middle class.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2003

Secular trends in the occurrence of tuberculosis in an urban community in north west England, 1918-2001: implications for a local tuberculosis control programme.

In recent years enhanced surveillance of tuberculosis has been undertaken for England and Wales to monitor national epidemiological trends. The Chief Medical Officer's strategy for communicable diseases has identified the development of a national strategy for the control of tuberculosis as a priority. Regional and sub-regional variations in the occurrence of tuberculosis require further exploration to inform local implementation of the national strategy. Secular epidemiological trends in tuberculosis for the period 1918-2001 are described for a deprived urban area in the north west of England, and implications for local enhanced surveillance and control measures are discussed. A substantial decline in mortality and morbidity from tuberculosis is shown due to interruption of transmission following improvements to the housing stock and the introduction of chemotherapy and BCG vaccination. The proportion of incident cases of tuberculosis in non-white groups has markedly increased over the period observed. The local tuberculosis control programme now specifically targets recent non-white immigrants. Other urban areas may need to adopt similar measures to improve local control of tuberculosis.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2004

Opportunity for natural selection in a Basque population and its secular trend: evolutionary implications of epidemic mortality.

Analysis of the interaction between mortality patterns and opportunity for natural selection could help to elucidate potential evolutionary implications of epidemic mortality. In this paper secular trends are studied in relation to Crow's index (It) and its components of mortality (Im) and fertility (If), using parish records for family reconstitution in a Basque population. A principal components analysis (91% of the variance accounted for) showed marked quantitative and qualitative variations of Im and If depending on the stage of demographic transition of the population analyzed: In pretransitional societies the opportunity for natural selection is determined mainly by differential prereproductive mortality, whereas in posttransitional societies selection resulting from differential fertility plays a key role. The highest values for the mortality component (range 0.81-1.26) and for the relative contribution of Im, to It (range 47.1-57.2%) were observed in periods with a high incidence of infectious diseases and when the most severe mortality crises were detected (1830-1859, 1860-1889, and 1890-1919). A differential incidence of epidemic mortality was also found at prereproductive ages (before 16 years) and at reproductive ages (16-45 years), which provides strong support for the idea of the long-term genetic consequences of mortality crises.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2004

[Secular trends of demographic parameters].

The aim of this paper is to describe the secular changes of selected demographic parameters and to investigate the possible causes for such changes as well as the biological relevance. We took into account the following parameters: population density, mean live expectancy, average age at marriage of until then unmarried persons, rate of live births, and number of children per woman. The results show that the population density (global and in Germany) especially in the twentieth century increased dramatically. We found a striking increase of life expectancy in Germany. Essential causes are rapid decreases in infant and maternal mortality. Since the 80s of the twentieth century the average age at marriage of until then unmarried persons as well as the number of single mothers show a permanent increase. Generally, the average age of mothers increased (for live and legitimate births). In the past 150 years we found a decrease in fertility rates in Germany. The registered demographic parameters show temporal and regional variations. These differences, especially between East Germany and West Germany, are emphasized.

Adult↗
PubMed2004

Testicular cancer incidence in eight northern European countries: secular and recent trends.

OBJECTIVE: Striking geographic variation and marked increasing secular trends characterize the incidence of testicular cancer. However, it is not known whether these patterns have attenuated in recent years and whether they are similar for seminomas and nonseminomas, the two main histologic groups of testicular cancer. METHOD: Cancer registry data, including 27,030 testicular cancer cases, were obtained from Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Poland, and Sweden. Between 57 (Denmark) and 9 (Poland) years of registration were covered. Country-specific temporal trends were estimated, with focus on the last decade and seminomas and nonseminomas. Data from the Nordic countries were further analyzed using an age-period-cohort approach. RESULTS: Age-standardized incidence rates increased annually by 2.6% to 4.9% during the study period, with marginal differences between seminomas and nonseminomas. In the last decade, the increasing trend attenuated only in Denmark (annual change, -0.3%; 95% confidence interval, -1.5 to 0.9). In 1995, the highest and the lowest age-standardized incidence rates (per 10(5)) were 15.2 in Denmark and 2.1 in Lithuania. Incidence rates (i.e., for all cancers and for seminomas and nonseminomas, separately) depended chiefly on birth cohort rather than on calendar period of diagnosis (although both birth cohort and period determined the Danish incidence rates). CONCLUSIONS: Testicular cancer incidence is still increasing, with the exception of Denmark, and a large geographic difference exists. The increasing trend is mainly a birth cohort phenomenon also in recent cohorts. Temporal trends for seminomas and nonseminomas are similar, which suggests that they share important causal factors.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2005

Secular trends in age at menarche, smoking, and oral contraceptive use among Israeli girls.

INTRODUCTION: The improved nutrition and socioeconomic status of the population in industrialized countries has resulted in a decrease in the mean age at menarche. This trend raises the question of whether cigarette smoking and the use of oral contraceptives, health behaviors often adopted during adolescence, may also be starting at a younger age. Cigarette smoking and use of oral contraceptives are a public health concern because they pose an increased risk for development of chronic diseases, particularly in combination. This study was designed to identify secular trends in age at menarche, at first cigarette, and at first use of oral contraceptives among a large population-based sample of young Israeli women and to assess whether these trends are associated with sociodemographic factors. METHODS: A systematic, population-based survey used data obtained from female recruits to the Israel Defense Force from 1986 to 2000. During the study period, 11,392 questionnaires were collected from Jewish women aged 18 to 19 years. Participants were interviewed concerning geographic origin and level of education, father's geographic origin and level of education, current smoking status, use of oral contraceptives, and recalled age at first menstruation, first cigarette, and first use of oral contraceptives. RESULTS: Reported mean age (-/+ D) at menarche showed a monotonic trend of decreasing over time, from 13.41 (-/+ .30) years for women born before 1970 to 13.03 (-/+ 1.28) years for those born after 1978 (P < .001). Women born after 1978 were twice as likely to experience menarche by the age of 11 as those born prior to 1970 (odds ratio 2.0; 95% confidence interval, 1.41-2.82). Significant trends toward younger age at first use were observed for cigarettes and oral contraceptives. CONCLUSION: The trends of earlier age at menarche, first cigarette, and first use of oral contraceptives suggest health behaviors among young women that may herald increased chronic disease morbidity in the future. These trends indicate the need for further investigation and preventive measures aimed at this population.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2005

Marked secular increase in the incidence rates of osteoporotic hip fractures in women and men in southern Israel.

BACKGROUND: For the last 35 years, our medical center has been the only referral center and provider of emergency medical services for a well-defined geographic area in southern Israel. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate trends in the incidence of hip fractures in this population. METHODS: The study was based on two surveys done approximately 20 years apart. It included women and men 50 years and older with radiographic evidence of a new hip fracture caused by low impact trauma. Only fractures that resulted from low or moderate trauma were considered for the current study. Incidence rates were calculated based on population data obtained from the official Central Bureau of Statistics. RESULTS: There was an overall twofold increase in the incidence rate of hip fractures. However, this increase occurred almost exclusively in the over-75 year old age groups (2.5-fold increase, both in women and men). The mean (and median) age of patients with hip fractures increased significantly over the study period, corresponding to the increase in longevity between the two periods. CONCLUSIONS: There was a marked secular increase in the incidence of proximal hip fractures in both genders, primarily because of an increase in the fracture rate in the very old. The increase in median age of fracture patients suggests that the observed increase in fracture rate can be attributed mainly to aging of the population rather than to deterioration in bone quality over the generations.

Aged↗
PubMed2005

[Evaluation of secular trend of liver cancer incidence in Qidong, Jiangsu province, 1973-2002].

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the secular trend of liver cancer incidence 1973-2002 in Qidong, a high-prevalent area in Jiangsu province. METHODS: The population-based cancer registration data collected during the period of 1973-2002 were used to calculate the crude rate (CR), world age-standardized rate (WASR), five-year age-specific rate, truncated rate of those aged 35-64, cumulative rates of those aged 0-64 and 0-74, percent change (PC), and annual percent change (APC). The incidence rates by age, period/age, and cohort/age were analyzed and compared. RESULTS: The CR was 59.28 per 100,000 on average; and was 91.65 per 100,000 for males and 27.64 per 100,000 for females, with a sex ratio of 3.32:1. The WASR was 58.71 per 100,000 on average; and was 93.32 per 100,000 for males and 26.46 per 100,000 for the females. The truncated rate and cumulative rate of those aged 0-64 and 0-74 were 143.61 per 100,000 and 4.74% and 6.07% respectively. The PC and the APC were +30.90% and +1.58% for the crude incidence rate, and +12.33% and +0.41% for the age-standardized rate. The incidence data demonstrated a rising trend in general and a decreasing pattern for the age-specific rates under age of 35 by comparing the two 15-year periods. Decline trend also existed for the younger age groups when the time was divided into 6 subperiods. Birth cohort analysis showed notable reducing changes for those born after the year 1963. CONCLUSION: The crude rate of incidence of liver cancer has arisen in general in the past 30 years in Qidong area, which may reflects the increase of middle-aged and elderly populations. Many years' comprehensive prevention measures taken in the area, however, have been and will continue to be effective on the decrease of the incidence of liver cancer among the younger generations.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2006

Growth and secular trend in school-children from Cento, Ferrara, Italy.

Growth parameters were surveyed in a sample of 296 Italian children, 6-9 years old, from Cento (Ferrara, Emilia-Romagna). The comparison with children from the same town measured in 1974-75 show changes in some parameters, suggesting an ongoing secular trend. To better understand the observed weight increase and the sex difference, we also evaluated body composition and motricity. The analysis of the present sample is a preliminary part of a longitudinal study dealing with modifications of body composition and motor capacity induced by growth. In our sample the children are growing according to the Italian reference standard. The females present weight, height and Body Mass Index (BMI) values comparable to the 50th centile, while the males present higher values of weight, skinfold thicknesses and BMI. Sex differences in the motor performance were noted. A methodological comparison of obesity assessments based on BMI and percentage of body fat (%F) shows similar conclusions but somewhat different results.

Body Mass Index↗
PubMed2006

[Secular trend of nosocomial pneumonia in an university hospital in Zhengzhou].

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the secular trend of infection rate, risk factor exposure rates for nosocomial pneumonia (NP), and to evaluate the nosocomial infection surveillance and control programs efficacy in an university hospital from 1993 to 2000. METHODS: All 126 665 hospitalized patients from 1993 to 2000 were studied for NP. The independent risk factors for NP were analyzed by using case-control study method and logistic regression technique. The time-specific rates for NP and risk factor exposure were calculated annually. RESULTS: The infection rates for NP were decreased by 50% from 1.20% in 1993 to 0.60% in 2000. The logistic regression analysis showed that the independent risk factors for NP were immunosuppressive therapy (OR = 2.72), chemotherapy (OR = 2.17), cancer (OR = 1.45), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD, OR = 1.88), ICU (OR = 3.18), coma (OR = 3.26), tracheotomy (OR = 14.95), hemodialysis (OR = 5.12), bone or lumbar puncture (OR = 1.82). The time-trends for exposure rates of COPD and bone or lumbar puncture were slightly decreased, however those for the others and the synthetic risk factors were not changed significantly. CONCLUSION: The infection rates for NP were significantly decreased in the case of no change for exposure rates of risk factors for NP, this suggests that the nosocomial infection surveillance and control programs were effective for lowering infection rate for NP in this hospital.

China↗
PubMed2005

Secular rhythms and Halberg's paraseasonality in the time occurrence of cerebral stroke.

OBJECTIVES: To obtain the optimal information concerning the time course of the morbidity od cerebral stroke. BACKGROUND: Recently, long years' cycling, similar to that in sun and geomagnetic activity, is observed in various biomedical variables. Other discovery is that of transyear (over one year) and cisyear (under one year) rhythms,originating also in the sun, in medicine. SUBJECTS: There were 6100 patients with cerebral infarction, 415 with intracerebral and 277 with subarachnoid hemorrhage admitted at Clinic of Neurology in Nové Zámky (area with 70 km radius and 180 000 inhabitants). Their monthly numbers were registered since January 1989 up to December 2004. METHODS: The data were processed by Halberg's cosinor regression. Presence of linear trend and of the period lengths of 10.5 (solar Schwabe-cycle), 5.25, 7.04 (geomagnetic activity cycling), 3.52, 1.70, 1.50, 1.30 (solar wind cycling), 1.20, 1.00 and 0.50 years was tested. Level of statistical significance was set at alpha = 0.05. RESULTS: In all three time series, significant linear trends were found with the estimated monthly increase by 0.8% of the estimated starting mesor value for infarction, 1.2% for cerebral and 1.9% for subarachnoid hemorrhage. Both the solar and geomagnetic cycling with their second harmonics were significant in all three clinical diagnoses. The transyear with period length of 1.3 year was significant in both hemorrhages while in infarction only its borderline significance was achieved. Nevertheless, its amplitude was always higher (by 15 to 83%) than that of 1.00 year estimated cosinusoid. CONCLUSION: All presented time series document increasing trends in the morbidity on cerebral stroke in the given geographic area. The presence of secular, years lasting cycles adds to relatively long list of similar chronocosmoepidemiologic analyses, so far generally ignored due to insufficient understanding of inferential statistics and chronobiology among doctors. The transyear paraseasonality represents a new element in these studies. To honour the nestor of the world chronobiology, who highly acknowledged the work of Ladislav Dérer, the designation "Halberg's paraseasonality" is proposed (Tab. 2, Fig. 3, Ref. 17).

Chronobiology Phenomena↗