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PubMed2005

Climate change impacts on crop yield and quality with CO2 fertilization in China.

A regional climate change model (PRECIS) for China, developed by the UK's Hadley Centre, was used to simulate China's climate and to develop climate change scenarios for the country. Results from this project suggest that, depending on the level of future emissions, the average annual temperature increase in China by the end of the twenty-first century may be between 3 and 4 degrees C. Regional crop models were driven by PRECIS output to predict changes in yields of key Chinese food crops: rice, maize and wheat. Modelling suggests that climate change without carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization could reduce the rice, maize and wheat yields by up to 37% in the next 20-80 years. Interactions of CO2 with limiting factors, especially water and nitrogen, are increasingly well understood and capable of strongly modulating observed growth responses in crops. More complete reporting of free-air carbon enrichment experiments than was possible in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Third Assessment Report confirms that CO2 enrichment under field conditions consistently increases biomass and yields in the range of 5-15%, with CO2 concentration elevated to 550 ppm Levels of CO2 that are elevated to more than 450 ppm will probably cause some deleterious effects in grain quality. It seems likely that the extent of the CO2 fertilization effect will depend upon other factors such as optimum breeding, irrigation and nutrient applications.

Adaptation, Physiological↗
PubMed2001

Benchmarking safety climate in hazardous environments: a longitudinal, interorganizational approach.

Safety climate is an important element of organizational reliability. This study applied benchmarking strategies for monitoring safety climate across nine North Sea oil and gas installations that were surveyed in consecutive years. Examination of absolute changes in safety climate complemented the benchmarking approach. Discriminant function analyses (DFA) identified the elements of safety climate predictive of self-reported accidents; correlational analyses were applied to the scale scores and accident proportions across the year period. Absolute improvements were substantial, with safety climate profiles converging in the second year. Large relative improvements were also observed. DFA highlighted perceived management commitment to safety and willingness to report accidents as significant predictors of personal accident involvement. Changes in perceived management commitment to safety were closely associated with changes in safety behavior.

Benchmarking↗
PubMed2026

Genomic-Environmental Integration Predicts Climate Vulnerability and Adaptive Potential of Tibetan Plateau Herpetofauna.

The herpetofauna of the Tibetan Plateau, home to Earth's highest-elevation ectothermic vertebrates, face escalating threats from rapid climate change. However, conventional conservation strategies often overlook intraspecific genetic variation and adaptive potential, limiting their predictive accuracy and effectiveness. Here, we integrate whole-genome resequencing data with environmental modeling to assess climate vulnerability in two endemic species: Nanorana parkeri (Tibetan frog) and Thermophis baileyi (hot-spring snake). Results suggest that the western populations of the two species exhibit higher genomic offsets under future climate, while some eastern populations of the Tibetan frog face a decrease in niche suitability, and the hot-spring snake will experience varying degrees of loss of suitable habitats. Furthermore, heterozygosity, genetic diversity, and genetic load demonstrate significant correlations with genomic offsets, suggesting that low genetic diversity and high genetic load may weaken the potential to adapt to environmental changes. Based on a genome-niche index that combines genomic offsets with niche suitability change, we identified evolutionary rescue populations that are potentially tolerant to climate change. Our findings underscore the importance of integrating genomic and environmental data to forecast the adaptive potential and enable effective conservation management of high-altitude herpetofauna under rapid climate change.

Animals↗
PubMed2004

Climate change and size evolution in an island rodent species: new perspectives on the island rule.

As stated by the island rule, small mammals evolve toward gigantism on islands. In addition they are known to evolve faster than their mainland counterparts. Body size in island mammals may also be influenced by geographical climatic gradients or climatic change through time. We tested the relative effects of climate change and isolation on the size of the Japanese rodent Apodemus speciosus and calculated evolutionary rates of body size change since the last glacial maximum (LGM). Currently A. speciosus populations conform both to Bergmann's rule, with an increase in body size with latitude, and to the island rule, with larger body sizes on small islands. We also found that fossil representatives of A. speciosus are larger than their extant relatives. Our estimated evolutionary rates since the LGM show that body size evolution on the smaller islands has been less than half as rapid as on Honshu, the mainland-type large island of Japan. We conclude that island populations exhibit larger body sizes today not because they have evolved toward gigantism, but because their evolution toward a smaller size, due to climate warming since the LGM, has been decelerated by the island effect. These combined results suggest that evolution in Quaternary island small mammals may not have been as fast as expected by the island effect because of the counteracting effect of climate change during this period.

Animals↗
PubMed2004

Evolutionary potential of Chamaecrista fasciculata in relation to climate change. I. Clinal patterns of selection along an environmental gradient in the great plains.

Climate change will alter natural selection on native plant populations. Little information is available to predict how selection will change in the future and how populations will respond. Insight can be obtained by comparing selection regimes in current environments to selection regimes in environments similar to those predicted for the future. To mimic predicted temporal change in climate, three natural populations of the annual legume Chamaecrista fasciculata were sampled from a climate gradient in the Great Plains and progeny of formal crosses were reciprocally planted back into common gardens across this climate gradient. In each garden, native populations produced significantly more seed than the other populations, providing strong evidence of local adaptation. Phenotypic selection analysis conducted by site showed that plants with slower reproductive development, more leaves, and thicker leaves were favored in the most southern garden. Evidence of clinal variation in selection regimes was also found; selection coefficients were ordered according to the latitude of the common gardens. The adaptive value of native traits was indicated by selection toward the mean of local populations. Repeated clinal patterns in linear and nonlinear selection coefficients among populations and within and between sites were found. To the extent that temporal change in climate into the future will parallel the differences in selection across this spatial gradient, this study suggests that selection regimes will be displaced northward and different trait values will be favored in natural populations.

Adaptation, Physiological↗
PubMed2004

Impacts of climate change on aeroallergens: past and future.

Human activities are resulting in increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, and changes in global climate. These, in turn, are likely to have had, and will continue to have, impacts on human health. While such impacts have received increasing attention in recent years, the impacts of climate change on aeroallergens and related allergic diseases have been somewhat neglected. Despite this, a number of studies have revealed potential impacts of climate change on aeroallergens that may have enormous clinical and public health significance. The purpose of this review is to synthesize this work and to outline a number of research challenges in this area. There is now considerable evidence to suggest that climate change will have, and has already had, impacts on aeroallergens. These include impacts on pollen amount, pollen allergenicity, pollen season, plant and pollen distribution, and other plant attributes. There is also some evidence of impacts on other aeroallergens, such as mould spores. There are many research challenges along the road to a more complete understanding of the impacts of climate change on aeroallergens and allergic diseases such as asthma and hayfever. It is important that public health authorities and allergy practitioners be aware of these changes in the environment, and that research scientists embrace the challenges that face further work in this area.

Air↗
PubMed2006

Climatic niche partitioning following successive invasions by fruit flies in La Réunion.

1. Biological invasions have profound effects on community structure. The community composition following invasions can be influenced by the habitat diversity and the species' responses to abiotic factors. 2. We evaluated the tolerance to climatic factors and analysed the field distribution of four polyphagous fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) of La Réunion Island (three exotic species that successively invaded the island and the endemic species Ceratitis catoirii) in order to evaluate the opportunities of coexistence by niche differentiation. 3. Atmospheric humidity and immersion in water in the laboratory greatly influence the survival of fruit fly pupae. While C. catoirii and C. rosa are very sensitive to desiccation, C. capitata and especially Bactrocera zonata are relatively tolerant. B. zonata also tolerated immersion in water much longer than did C. rosa and C. catoirii, that in turn were more resistant than C. capitata. Overall, field distributions agree with the predictions based on this study of humidity combined with previous data on the effects of temperature. 4. Climatic niche partitioning promotes coexistence between some but not all pairs of invasive species. Thus, C. rosa can coexist with both C. capitata and B. zonata at the regional scale, while climatic niches are not different enough to promote coexistence of the latter two species. The endemic species has no private climatic niche either and this now very rare species could be in the process of extinction. 5. By promoting coexistence or not, climatic diversity in invaded areas can directly affect the community composition following invasions.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

Survival of Svalbard pink-footed geese Anser brachyrhynchus in relation to winter climate, density and land-use.

1. Global change may strongly affect population dynamics, but mechanisms remain elusive. Several Arctic goose species have increased considerably during the last decades. Climate, and land-use changes outside the breeding area have been invoked as causes but have not been tested. We analysed the relationships between conditions on wintering and migration staging areas, and survival in Svalbard pink-footed geese Anser brachyrhynchus. Using mark-recapture data from 14 winters (1989-2002) we estimated survival rates and tested for time trends, and effects of climate, goose density and land-use. 2. Resighting rates differed for males and females, were higher for birds recorded during the previous winter and changed smoothly over time. Survival rates did not differ between sexes, varied over time with a nonsignificant negative trend, and were higher for the first interval after marking (0.88-0.97) than afterwards (0.74-0.93). Average survival estimates were 0.967 (SE 0.026) for the first and 0.861 (SE 0.023) for all later survival intervals. 3. We combined 16 winter and spring climate covariates into two principal components axes. F1 was related to warm/wet winters and an early spring on the Norwegian staging areas and F2 to dry/cold winters. We expected that F1 would be positively related to survival and F2 negatively. F1 explained 23% of survival variation (F1,10=3.24; one-sided P=0.051) when alone in a model and 28% (F1,9=4.50; one-sided P=0.031) in a model that assumed a trend for survival. In contrast, neither F2 nor density, land-use, or scaring practices on important Norwegian spring staging areas had discernible effects on survival. 4. Climate change may thus affect goose population dynamics, with warmer winters and earlier springs enhancing survival and fecundity. A possible mechanism is increased food availability on Danish wintering and Norwegian staging areas. As geese are among the main herbivores in Arctic ecosystems, climate change, by increasing goose populations, may have important indirect effects on Arctic vegetation. Our study also highlights the importance of events outside the breeding area for the population dynamics of migrant species.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

High-altitude climate therapy reduces local airway inflammation and modulates lymphocyte activation.

High-altitude climate therapy is a well-established therapeutic option, which improves clinical symptoms in asthma. However, little is known about the underlying immunological mechanisms. The study investigates the influence of high-altitude climate therapy on airway inflammation and cellular components of specific and unspecific immune response. Exhaled NO significantly decreased within 3 weeks of therapy in patients with allergic and intrinsic, moderate and severe asthma. Interleukin-10 (IL-10)-secreting peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) increased within 3 weeks of therapy in six of 11 patients, whereas transforming growth factor-beta(1)-secreting PBMC remained stable. Furthermore, monocyte activation, assessed by CD80 expression significantly decreased during therapy. The frequency of CRTH2-expressing T cells decreased, while regulatory T cells (T(reg)) remained stable. FOXP3 and GATA-3 mRNA expression in CD4(+) T cells did not change, while interferon-gamma and IL-13 mRNA expression decreased in eight of 10 patients. The current data demonstrate that high-altitude climate therapy reduces local airway inflammation. Furthermore, monocytes switch towards a tolerogenic phenotype under high-altitude climate therapy. The T(reg)/Th2 ratio increases; however, because of the absence of antigens/allergens, no de novo differentiation of Th2 nor T(reg) cells is observed. The high-altitude climate therapy therefore may form the immunological basis for the endogenous control of allergen-driven diseases.

Adult↗
PubMed1994

The effects of patterns in climate and pollen abundance on allergy.

Recent climatic trends in Europe have been examined in the context of longer term variations and vegetation zonation. The most recent computer models of future climatic changes resulting from increasing carbon dioxide emissions are discussed in relation to the possible impacts that the predicted climatic shifts may have on the distribution and abundance of the main allergenic pollen types. The probable repercussions of these changes on the patterns and incidences of seasonal allergic rhinitis are considered. This study focuses on pollen from Betula, the Poaceae, Ambrosia, Parietaria and Olea, but also examines the implications of climatic change for other aeroallergens, including those from various crops such as Brassica species (oil-seed rape) and Helianthemum (sunflowers). In the case of natural distributions, the response of the plants to climatic changes are viewed in relation to the potential migration rates of the species. For agricultural crops, shifts in the location of productive areas involve agricultural economics both at the national and European community levels. In addition to broad regional impacts, this study examines the influence of increasing ultraviolet radiation on pollen production over various areas of Europe, and considers the effect of changing airflow trajectories on the long-range transport of pollen with pollution from central and northern Europe into Scandinavia.

Climate↗
PubMed2004

Influence of climate factors on emergency visits for childhood asthma attack.

BACKGROUND: Asthma attack shows strong seasonality. The purpose of the present study was to quantify the contribution of climate variables and other seasonal factors on the incidence of emergency visits for childhood asthma in Tokyo, Japan. METHODS: The number of children who visited emergency rooms at Jikei university hospitals in Tokyo during 1998-2002 (5559 visits) was retrieved retrospectively from files from the Department of Pediatrics, and compared with 45 climate parameters from the Meteorological Agency using multiple regression models with a stepwise backward elimination approach. RESULTS: The number of visits (3.7 +/- 3.1) per night increased significantly when climate conditions showed a rapid decrease from higher barometric pressure, from higher air temperature and from higher humidity, as well as lower wind speed. The best-fit model demonstrated that a 22% variation in the number of visits was explained by a linear relationship with 12 climate variables, which increased to 36% after adjusting for calendar month and day of the week. Moreover, when the number of asthma visits was cut off at nine per night, the area under the receiver operator characteristics curve was 0.91 (95% CI: 0.89-0.94) in the multiple logistic regression model using the same variables. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that these models might quantify contributions of specific climate conditions and other seasonal factors on the number of emergency visits per night for childhood asthma attack in Tokyo, Japan.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2006

Predator disease out-break modulates top-down, bottom-up and climatic effects on herbivore population dynamics.

Human-introduced disease and climatic change are increasingly perturbing natural ecosystems worldwide, but scientists know very little about how they interact to affect ecological dynamics. An outbreak of canine parvovirus (CPV) in the wolf population on Isle Royale allowed us to test the transient effects of an introduced pathogen and global climatic variation on the dynamics of a three-level food chain. Following the introduction of CPV, wolf numbers plummeted, precipitating a switch from top-down to bottom-up regulation of the moose population; consequently, the influence of climate on moose population growth rate doubled. This demonstrates that synergistic interactions between pathogens and climate can lead to shifts in trophic control, and suggests that predators in this system may play an important role in dampening the effects of climate change on the dynamics of their prey.

Animals↗
PubMed2000

Contribution of increasing CO2 and climate to carbon storage by ecosystems in the United States.

The effects of increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) and climate on net carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems of the conterminous United States for the period 1895-1993 were modeled with new, detailed historical climate information. For the period 1980-1993, results from an ensemble of three models agree within 25%, simulating a land carbon sink from CO2 and climate effects of 0.08 gigaton of carbon per year. The best estimates of the total sink from inventory data are about three times larger, suggesting that processes such as regrowth on abandoned agricultural land or in forests harvested before 1980 have effects as large as or larger than the direct effects of CO2 and climate. The modeled sink varies by about 100% from year to year as a result of climate variability.

Agriculture↗
PubMed2002

Climate variability and Ross River virus transmission.

OBJECTIVES: (1) To examine the feasibility to link climate data with monthly incidence of Ross River virus (RRv). (2) To assess the impact of climate variability on the RRv transmission. DESIGN: An ecological time series analysis was performed on the data collected between 1985 to 1996 in Queensland, Australia. METHODS: Information on the notified RRv cases was obtained from the Queensland Department of Health. Climate and population data were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. Spearman's rank correlation analyses were performed to examine the relation between climate variability and the monthly incidence of notified RRv infections. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to perform a time series analysis. As maximum and minimum temperatures were highly correlated with each other (r(s)=0.75), two separate models were developed. RESULTS: For the eight major cities in Queensland, the climate-RRv correlation coefficients were in the range of 0.12 to 0.52 for maximum and minimum temperatures, -0.10 to 0.46 for rainfall, and 0.11 to 0.52 for relative humidity and high tide. For the whole State, rainfall (partial regression coefficient: 0.017 (95% confidence intervals 0.009 to 0.025) in Model I and 0.018 (0.010 to 0.026) in Model II), and high tidal level (0.030 (0.006 to 0.054) in Model I and 0.029 (0.005 to 0.053) in Model II) seemed to have played significant parts in the transmission of RRv in Queensland. Maximum temperature was also marginally significantly associated with the incidence of RRv infection. CONCLUSION: Rainfall, temperature, and tidal levels may be important environmental determinants in the transmission cycles of RRv disease.

Alphavirus Infections↗
PubMed2004

Modelling the impact of climate change on woody plant population dynamics in South African savanna.

BACKGROUND: In Southern Africa savannas climate change has been proposed to alter rainfall, the most important environmental driver for woody plants. Woody plants are a major component of savanna vegetation determining rangeland condition and biodiversity. In this study we use a spatially explicit, stochastic computer model to assess the impact of climate change on the population dynamics of Grewia flava, a common, fleshy-fruited shrub species in the southern Kalahari. Understanding the population dynamics of Grewia flava is a crucial task, because it is widely involved in the shrub/bush encroachment process, a major concern for rangeland management due to its adverse effect on livestock carrying capacity and biodiversity. RESULTS: For our study we consider four climate change scenarios that have been proposed for the southern Kalahari for the coming decades: (1) an increase in annual precipitation by 30-40%, (2) a decrease by 5-15%, (3) an increase in variation of extreme rainfall years by 10-20%, (4) and increase in temporal auto-correlation, i.e. increasing length and variation of periodic rainfall oscillations related to El Nino/La Nina phenomena. We evaluate the slope z of the time-shrub density relationship to quantify the population trend. For each climate change scenario we then compared the departure of z from typical stable population dynamics under current climatic conditions. Based on the simulation experiments we observed a positive population trend for scenario (1) and a negative trend for scenario (2). In terms of the projected rates of precipitation change for scenario (3) and (4) population dynamics were found to be relatively stable. However, for a larger increase in inter-annual variation or in temporal auto-correlation of rainfall population trends were negative, because favorable rainfall years had a limited positive impact due to the limited shrub carrying capacity. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that a possible increase in precipitation will strongly facilitate shrub encroachment threatening savanna rangeland conditions and regional biodiversity. Furthermore, the negative effects found for positive auto-correlated rainfall support current ecological theory stating that periodically fluctuating environments can reduce population viability because species suffer disproportionately from poor environmental conditions.

Biodiversity↗
PubMed2005

Temporal response of the tiger salamander (Ambystoma tigrinum) to 3,000 years of climatic variation.

BACKGROUND: Amphibians are sensitive indicators of environmental conditions and show measurable responses, such as changes in phenology, abundance and range limits to local changes in precipitation and temperature regimes. Amphibians offer unique opportunities to study the important ecological and evolutionary implications of responses in life history characteristics to climatic change. We analyzed a late-Holocene fossil record of the Tiger Salamander (Ambystoma tigrinum) for evidence of population-level changes in body size and paedomorphosis to climatic change over the last 3000 years. RESULTS: We found a significant difference in body size index between paedomorphic and metamorphic individuals during the time interval dominated by the Medieval Warm Period. There is a consistent ratio of paedomorphic to metamorphic specimens through the entire 3000 years, demonstrating that not all life history characteristics of the population were significantly altered by changes in climate on this timescale. CONCLUSION: The fossil record of Ambystoma tigrinum we used spans an ecologically relevant timescale appropriate for understanding population and community response to projected climatic change. The population-level responses we documented are concordant with expectations based on modern environmental studies, and yield insight into population-level patterns across hundreds of generations, especially the independence of different life history characteristics. These conclusions lead us to offer general predictions about the future response of this species based on likely scenarios of climatic warming in the Rocky Mountain region.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

Boutonneuse fever and climate variability.

Researchers have long appreciated the role of climate in vector-borne diseases, including the resurgence of boutonneuse fever (BF). Portugal usually is classified as having temperate Mediterranean climate. In this new century, in analyzing the data from the Meteorology Institute, this pattern has changed and an accentuated variability in climate is being observed. BF (febre escaro nodular) is endemic and high season is from late spring and summer. The brown dog tick Rhipicephalus sanguineus. is the vector and reservoir of Rickettsia conorii complex strains: R. conorii Malish and Israeli spotted fever strain. To assess the influence of climate change in BF seasonality our aim was to compare the human sera samples received at CEVDI-INSA for laboratory diagnosis of MSF for 5 months per year from October to February, ("off-season") from 2000 to 2005. Of 1,299 sera samples in persons with suspected clinical diagnosis of MSF, 45 (3.4%) were considered positive cases and the number of positive cases has doubled in the last 2 years. BF epidemiology clearly appears to be associated with climate change, especially with low precipitation values. Physicians should be aware of increasing off-season BF cases.

Boutonneuse Fever↗
PubMed2001

The potential impacts of climate variability and change on air pollution-related health effects in the United States.

Climate change may affect exposures to air pollutants by affecting weather, anthropogenic emissions, and biogenic emissions and by changing the distribution and types of airborne allergens. Local temperature, precipitation, clouds, atmospheric water vapor, wind speed, and wind direction influence atmospheric chemical processes, and interactions occur between local and global-scale environments. If the climate becomes warmer and more variable, air quality is likely to be affected. However, the specific types of change (i.e., local, regional, or global), the direction of change in a particular location (i.e., positive or negative), and the magnitude of change in air quality that may be attributable to climate change are a matter of speculation, based on extrapolating present understanding to future scenarios. There is already extensive evidence on the health effects of air pollution. Ground-level ozone can exacerbate chronic respiratory diseases and cause short-term reductions in lung function. Exposure to particulate matter can aggravate chronic respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, alter host defenses, damage lung tissue, lead to premature death, and possibly contribute to cancer. Health effects of exposures to carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide can include reduced work capacity, aggravation of existing cardiovascular diseases, effects on pulmonary function, respiratory illnesses, lung irritation, and alterations in the lung's defense systems. Adaptations to climate change should include ensuring responsiveness of air quality protection programs to changing pollution levels. Research needs include basic atmospheric science work on the association between weather and air pollutants; improving air pollution models and their linkage with climate change scenarios; and closing gaps in the understanding of exposure patterns and health effects.

Aerosols↗