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PubMed2006

Policy strategies to address sustainability of Alaskan boreal forests in response to a directionally changing climate.

Human activities are altering many factors that determine the fundamental properties of ecological and social systems. Is sustainability a realistic goal in a world in which many key process controls are directionally changing? To address this issue, we integrate several disparate sources of theory to address sustainability in directionally changing social-ecological systems, apply this framework to climate-warming impacts in Interior Alaska, and describe a suite of policy strategies that emerge from these analyses. Climate warming in Interior Alaska has profoundly affected factors that influence landscape processes (climate regulation and disturbance spread) and natural hazards, but has only indirectly influenced ecosystem goods such as food, water, and wood that receive most management attention. Warming has reduced cultural services provided by ecosystems, leading to some of the few institutional responses that directly address the causes of climate warming, e.g., indigenous initiatives to the Arctic Council. Four broad policy strategies emerge: (i) enhancing human adaptability through learning and innovation in the context of changes occurring at multiple scales; (ii) increasing resilience by strengthening negative (stabilizing) feedbacks that buffer the system from change and increasing options for adaptation through biological, cultural, and economic diversity; (iii) reducing vulnerability by strengthening institutions that link the high-latitude impacts of climate warming to their low-latitude causes; and (iv) facilitating transformation to new, potentially more beneficial states by taking advantage of opportunities created by crisis. Each strategy provides societal benefits, and we suggest that all of them be pursued simultaneously.

Acclimatization↗
PubMed2001

Impact of climatic and other environmental changes on food production and population health in the coming decades.

World population will reach an estimated nine billion by 2050. Given this factor and continued economic development in today's low-income countries, the total global demand for food will increase approximately threefold over the coming half-century. Meanwhile, against this background, newly-occurring global environmental changes such as climate change are anticipated to affect food production. Other incipient large-scale environmental changes likely to affect food production include stratospheric O3 depletion, the accelerating loss of biodiversity (with knock-on effects on crop and livestock pest species) and the perturbation of several of the great elemental cycles of N and S. The ways in which these various environmental influences affect the production of food (crops and livestock on land, and wild and cultivated fisheries) are complex and interactive. Uncertainties therefore persist about how global climate change is likely to affect world and regional food production. On balance, recent modelling-based estimates indicate that, in the medium to longer term, if not over the next several decades, climate change is likely to affect crop yields adversely, especially in food-insecure regions. The prospect of increased climatic variability further increases the risks to future food production. Given these possible though uncertain adverse impacts of climatic and other environmental changes on world food production, there is a need to apply the Precautionary Principle. There are finite, and increasingly evident, limits to agro-ecosystems and to wild fisheries. Our capacity to maintain food supplies for an increasingly large and increasingly expectant world population will depend on maximising the efficiency and sustainability of production methods, incorporating socially-beneficial genetic biotechnologies, and taking pre-emptive action to minimise detrimental ecologically-damaging global environmental changes.

Agriculture↗
PubMed1989

Application of the relative summary climatic indices during work in heat for ergonomic purposes.

A new method was elaborated for the evaluation of work-heat load. Two indices of heat stress were introduced, the so-called 'climatic heat'--Hcl (a sum of convective, radiation, respiration and maximum evaporation heat), and the 'total heat'--Htot (a sum of metabolic and climatic heat). It is an adapted thermal balance equation in which the evaporation heat was replaced with maximum evaporation heat. This enabled the quantification of climatic load also in the normothermic region, where stored heat S=0. The applicability of these indices is given by the fact that so-called heat heart rate (HRh) is in good correlation with them. The above mentioned indices were used in the relative values of the 'quotient of heat stress' (Qdif,H) and of the 'grade of heat strain' (Gdif,H). These variables are basically a relation between real load and 'permissible' load to which a healthy adult male can be exposed for 8 h without an increase in his body temperature. In this paper, equations for calculation of those relative values according to heat stress indices are introduced. The relative indices show how many times is the real HRh larger (or smaller) than its permissible value (= 20 min(-1)). By joining the relative heat stress indices with the relative work load indices (Qdif,W and Gdif,W, respectively) the index of work-heat load is obtained. The permissible work heart rate (= 30 min(-1)), which corresponds with the energetic output in males (approximately 250 W). The work-heat strain grade (Gdif,WH) can be used for the quantification of load, for the determination of the rest allowance, of the necessary recovery time and for the determination of a suitable regime of work and rest in general. The permissible values of climatic elements under a given physical load, and the admissible duration of exposure under different climatic conditions and different muscle load intensities can be determined.

Climate↗
PubMed2006

Seasonality in adult asthma admissions, air pollutant levels, and climate: a population-based study.

OBJECTIVE AND BACKGROUND: Most studies of asthma seasonal variations have not examined associations of environmental risk factors and climatic changes associated with seasonality in asthma hospitalizations. This study used population-based data to examine seasonality in asthma admissions and the associated seasonality in levels of air pollutants and climatic factors during a 4-year period in Taiwan. METHODS: A total of 126,671 asthma hospitalizations in Taiwan during 1998-2001 operationalized as monthly admissions per 100,000 population and monthly mean levels of criterion air pollutants and meteorological factors were subjected to Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average to test for seasonality and association between asthma admission rates and the pollutant and climatic factor levels. Owing to significant differences in seasonality between pediatric and adult age groups, this study was limited to 99,591 adult asthma cases to examine the seasonality issue as related to the criterion air pollutants and climatic factors using Spearman rank correlations. RESULTS: Seasonal trends showed a hospitalization peak in January through March and a sharp decline beginning in April to a trough in June for both sexes. Seasonal variations in adult asthma admissions were significantly positively correlated with levels of PM10, SO2, CO, NO2, and atmospheric pressure and negatively correlated with temperature and hours of sunshine. CONCLUSIONS: Adult asthma hospitalization propensity is highest in spring and is significantly correlated with air pollution and climate. Air quality control programs and early public warning systems on pollution and atmospheric factors are needed to enable predisposed individuals and their physicians to preempt attacks through primary and secondary preventive measures.

Adolescent↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Vulnerability of waterborne diseases to climate change in Canada: a review.

This project addresses two important issues relevant to the health of Canadians: the risk of waterborne illness and the health impacts of global climate change. The Canadian health burden from waterborne illness is unknown, although it presumably accounts for a significant proportion of enteric illness. Recently, large outbreaks with severe consequences produced by E. coli O157:H7 and Cryptosporidium have alarmed Canadians and brought demands for political action. A concurrent need to understand the health impacts of global climate changes and to develop strategies to prevent or prepare for these has also been recognized. There is mounting evidence that weather is often a factor in triggering waterborne disease outbreaks. A recent study of precipitation and waterborne illness in the United States found that more than half the waterborne disease outbreaks in the United States during the last half century followed a period of extreme rainfall. Projections of international global climate change scenarios suggest that, under conditions of global warming most of Canada may expect longer summers, milder winters, increased summer drought, and more extreme precipitation. Excess precipitation, floods, high temperatures, and drought could affect the risk of waterborne illness in Canada. The existing scientific information regarding most weather-related adverse health impacts and on the impacts of global climate change on health in Canada is insufficient for informed decision making. The results of this project address this need through the investigation of the complex systemic interrelationships between disease incidence, weather parameters, and water quality and quantity, and by projecting the potential impact of global climate change on those relationships.

Animals↗
PubMed2003

A globally consistent richness-climate relationship for angiosperms.

Species richness, the simplest index of biodiversity, varies greatly over broad spatial scales. Richness-climate relationships often account for >80% of the spatial variance in richness. However, it has been suggested that richness-climate relationships differ significantly among geographic regions and that there is no globally consistent relationship. This study investigated the global patterns of species and family richness of angiosperms in relation to climate. We found that models relating angiosperm richness to mean annual temperature, annual water deficit, and their interaction or models relating richness to annual potential evapotranspiration and water deficit are both globally consistent and very strong and are independent of the diverse evolutionary histories and functional assemblages of plants in different parts of the world. Thus, effects of other factors such as evolutionary history, postglacial dispersal, soil nutrients, topography, or other climatic variables either must be quite minor over broad scales (because there is little residual variation left to explain) or they must be strongly collinear with global patterns of climate. The correlations shown here must be predicted by any successful hypothesis of mechanisms controlling richness patterns.

Adaptation, Physiological↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Climatic variables and transmission of malaria: a 12-year data analysis in Shuchen County, China.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to explore the impact of climate variability on the transmission of malaria, a vector-borne disease, in a county of China and provide suggestions to similar regions for disease prevention. METHODS: A time-series analysis was conducted using data on monthly climatic variables and monthly incidence of malaria in Shuchen County, China, for the period 1980-1991. RESULTS: Spearman's correlation analysis showed that monthly mean maximum and minimum temperatures, two measures of monthly mean relative humidity, and monthly amount of precipitation were positively correlated with the monthly incidence of malaria in the county. Regression analysis suggested that monthly mean minimum temperature and total monthly rainfall, with a one-month lagged effect, were significant climatic variables in the transmission of malaria in Shuchen County. Seasonality was also significant in the regression model and there was a declining secular trend in the incidence of malaria. CONCLUSION: The results indicate that climatic variables should be considered as possible predictors for regions with similar geographic, climatic, and socioeconomic conditions to those of Shuchen County.

China↗
PubMed1997

Potential effects of climatic change on radiological doses from disposal of Canadian nuclear fuel waste.

The environmental assessment of deep geologic disposal of Canadian nuclear fuel waste considers many processes that could affect radionuclide transport to humans over thousands of years. Climatic change is an important feature that will occur over these long times. Glaciation will likely occur within the next 100,000 years over much of Canada, and its impact on radiological doses has been assessed previously. In the present study, we investigate the potential effect of short-term climatic change, usually associated with global warming caused by increases in atmospheric trace gases. We study the main biosphere transport pathways causing a radiological dose to humans from 129I, which is the most important radionuclide in disposal of Canadian used nuclear fuel. Irrigation of a garden with contaminated well water is the main pathway and it can be affected by changes in temperature and precipitation. A cold, wet climate decreases the need for irrigation, and this decreases the radiological dose. A drastic climatic change, such as an increase in temperature from 10 to 20 degrees C and decrease in precipitation from 0.3 to 0.2 m during the growing season, is estimated to increase the dose by a factor of four. This is a relatively small change compared to the range of doses that arise from the variability and uncertainty in many of the parameters used in the environmental assessment models. Therefore, it is likely that the results of probabilistic dose assessment models can include the consequences of short-term climatic change.

Agriculture↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Seasonal variation in AF-related admissions to a coronary care unit in a "hot" climate: fact or fiction?

BACKGROUND: Seasonal variations in atrial fibrillation (AF)-related morbidity and mortality have been demonstrated in "cold" northern European climates, but there are few data describing such a phenomenon in a "hot" climate. RESEARCH OBJECTIVE: To examine the pattern of AF-related admissions to a coronary care unit (CCU) in South Australia operating within a Mediterranean climate, and to determine potential differences according to mean daily temperatures. PATIENT COHORT AND METHODS: A total of 144 admissions to the CCU during the 30 hottest and coldest days (60 days in total) during the calendar year 2001 were analyzed in respect to the absolute number of admissions and the profile of those admitted during "hot" and "cold" days. RESULTS: Overall, there were significantly more admissions to the CCU on "cold" as opposed to "hot" days (90 vs 54 patients in 30 days, P < or = .001). Of the 24 patients found to be in AF on presentation to hospital, 18 (75%) were admitted on cold days (P < .05). Alternatively, during "hot" days, patients were more likely to be diagnosed with unstable angina rather than acute myocardial infarction (46% vs 30%, P = .07) with proportionately fewer patients in AF at the time (11% vs 20%, P = NS). CONCLUSIONS: These preliminary data suggest that the phenomenon of seasonal variations in AF-related morbidity extend beyond colder climates to hotter climates with sufficiently large relative (as opposed to absolute) changes in ambient temperatures during the year.

Aged↗
PubMed2006

Early warning of Ross River virus epidemics: combining surveillance data on climate and mosquitoes.

BACKGROUND: Ross River virus disease is spread by mosquitoes, and an average of 5000 people are infected each year in Australia. It is one of the few infectious diseases for which climate-based early warning systems could be developed. The aim of this study was to test whether supplementing routinely collected climate data with mosquito surveillance data could increase the accuracy of disease prediction models. METHODS: We focused on a temperate region of Western Australia between July 1991 and June 1999. We developed "early" and "later" warning logistic regression models to test the sensitivity of data on climate (tide height, rainfall, sea surface temperature) and mosquito counts for predicting epidemics of disease. RESULTS: Climate data on their own were moderately sensitive (64%) for predicting epidemics during the early warning period. Addition of mosquito surveillance data increased the sensitivity of the early warning model to 90%. The later warning model had a sensitivity of 85%. CONCLUSIONS: We found that climate data are inexpensive and easy to collect and allow the prediction of Ross River virus disease epidemics within the time necessary to improve the effectiveness of public health responses. Mosquito surveillance data provide a more expensive early warning but add substantial predictive value.

Alphavirus Infections↗
PubMed2003

Climate tolerance and interspecific variation in geographic range size.

The fact that climate influences the continental-scale distributions of species is one of the central tenets of ecology and biogeography. Equally elemental is that species exhibit enormous variation in geographic range size, with most occupying comparatively small areas. The degree to which climate can account for this variation remains unclear. Here, I test three alternative climate-based hypotheses for variation in range size using a large sample of tree and shrub species native to North America north of Mexico. I show that the lowest value of January average daily minimum temperature encompassed by a species' geographic range (T(MIN)), representing the 'climate extremes hypothesis', explains almost 80% of the variation in range size. Hypotheses based on seasonality and climate optima find substantially less support. The relationship between range size and T(MIN) does not change across the breadth of latitudes examined, and is general for conifers and hardwoods, and growth form (tree versus shrub). Differential freezing resistance gains support as the mechanism underlying interspecific variation in range size: using 35 species for which data were available, both T(MIN) and range size are shown to be strongly correlated with measures of freezing resistance.

Animal Migration↗
PubMed2003

Climate change in Australian tropical rainforests: an impending environmental catastrophe.

It is now widely accepted that global climate change is affecting many ecosystems around the globe and that its impact is increasing rapidly. Many studies predict that impacts will consist largely of shifts in latitudinal and altitudinal distributions. However, we demonstrate that the impacts of global climate change in the tropical rainforests of northeastern Australia have the potential to result in many extinctions. We develop bioclimatic models of spatial distribution for the regionally endemic rainforest vertebrates and use these models to predict the effects of climate warming on species distributions. Increasing temperature is predicted to result in significant reduction or complete loss of the core environment of all regionally endemic vertebrates. Extinction rates caused by the complete loss of core environments are likely to be severe, nonlinear, with losses increasing rapidly beyond an increase of 2 degrees C, and compounded by other climate-related impacts. Mountain ecosystems around the world, such as the Australian Wet Tropics bioregion, are very diverse, often with high levels of restricted endemism, and are therefore important areas of biodiversity. The results presented here suggest that these systems are severely threatened by climate change.

Animals↗
PubMed2003

Climate and density shape population dynamics of a marine top predator.

Long-term studies have documented that climate fluctuations affect the dynamics of populations, but the relative influence of stochastic and density-dependent processes is still poorly understood and debated. Most studies have been conducted on terrestrial systems, and lacking are studies on marine systems explicitly integrating the fact that most populations live in seasonal environments and respond to regular or systematic environmental changes. We separated winter from summer mortality in a seabird population, the blue petrel Halobaena caerulea, in the southern Indian Ocean where the El Niño/Southern Oscillation effects occur with a 3-4-year lag. Seventy per cent of the mortality occurred in winter and was linked to climatic factors, being lower during anomalous warm events. The strength of density dependence was affected by climate, with population crashes occurring when poor conditions occurred at high densities. We found that an exceptionally long-lasting warming caused a ca. 40% decline of the population, suggesting that chronic climate change will strongly affect this top predator. These findings demonstrate that populations in marine systems are particularly susceptible to climate variation through complex interactions between seasonal mortality and density-dependent effects.

Animals↗
PubMed2005

Shifts in phenology due to global climate change: the need for a yardstick.

Climate change has led to shifts in phenology in many species distributed widely across taxonomic groups. It is, however, unclear how we should interpret these shifts without some sort of a yardstick: a measure that will reflect how much a species should be shifting to match the change in its environment caused by climate change. Here, we assume that the shift in the phenology of a species' food abundance is, by a first approximation, an appropriate yardstick. We review the few examples that are available, ranging from birds to marine plankton. In almost all of these examples, the phenology of the focal species shifts either too little (five out of 11) or too much (three out of 11) compared to the yardstick. Thus, many species are becoming mistimed due to climate change. We urge researchers with long-term datasets on phenology to link their data with those that may serve as a yardstick, because documentation of the incidence of climate change-induced mistiming is crucial in assessing the impact of global climate change on the natural world.

Animals↗
PubMed2025

Fungal and algal lichen symbionts show different transcriptional expression patterns in two climate zones.

In the lichen symbiosis, the fungal and algal partners constitute a closely integrated system. The combination of fungal and algal partners changes along climate gradients in many species, and is expected to be adaptive. However, the functional mechanisms behind this symbiosis-mediated environmental adaptation are unknown. We investigated which transcriptional profiles are associated with specific fungal-algal symbiont pairings found in lichens from high-elevation (Lower Supratemperate) and low-elevation (Lower Mesomediterranean) sites at two extremes of a climatic gradient on Mount Limbara, Sardinia. Using laboratory-acclimatized thalli, we found that lichen fungal and algal symbionts show variable expression profiles between high- and low-elevation individuals: circadian- and temperature-associated genes for fungi and light-responsive genes for algae show climate-specific patterns. High- and low-elevation individuals differentially express sugar transporters in both symbionts, pointing to symmetrical and climate-dependent sugar transport mechanisms between them. A light pulse treatment identified asymmetries between fungal and algal light responses, with high- and low-elevation fungal symbionts but only low-elevation algal symbionts showing a response. Together, these results tie previously observed genomic variation along climatic gradients in a lichen species to functional differences in transcription for the fungal and algal symbionts, contributing to our understanding of environmental specialization and niche-specific partner combinations in lichens.

Lichens↗
PubMed2003

The economics of abrupt climate change.

The US National Research Council defines abrupt climate change as a change of state that is sufficiently rapid and sufficiently widespread in its effects that economies are unprepared or incapable of adapting. This may be too restrictive a definition, but abrupt climate change does have implications for the choice between the main response options: mitigation (which reduces the risks of climate change) and adaptation (which reduces the costs of climate change). The paper argues that by (i) increasing the costs of change and the potential growth of consumption, and (ii) reducing the time to change, abrupt climate change favours mitigation over adaptation. Furthermore, because the implications of change are fundamentally uncertain and potentially very high, it favours a precautionary approach in which mitigation buys time for learning. Adaptation-oriented decision tools, such as scenario planning, are inappropriate in these circumstances. Hence learning implies the use of probabilistic models that include socioeconomic feedbacks.

Adaptation, Psychological↗
PubMed2003

Evidence for abrupt climate changes in annually laminated marine sediments.

Annually laminated sediments from marine or lacustrine settings represent valuable high-resolution archives of climate change that record variation due to changing precipitation and run-off from land or variation in biological productivity and flux in the water column. Because of their annual resolution such sediments may capture abrupt changes of interannual to decadal scales rivaling corals and ice cores in resolution. Laminated sediments often occur intermittently in the sediment column, and the onset and cessation of laminae commonly record the abrupt crossing of thresholds related to climate change, for example, in the degree of oxygenation of bottom waters. Such records from marginal basins and continental margins have been pivotal in demonstrating that abrupt changes hitherto documented only in high-latitude ice cores are synchronous with climatic change at low latitudes. These insights into global teleconnections have improved our understanding of the mechanisms of rapid climate change. In deep-sea settings, the discovery of the episodic occurrence of laminated diatom-rich sediments in the Equatorial Pacific and Southern Ocean provides evidence for massive climate-related biogeochemical excursions tied to abrupt changes in the input, distribution and availability of nutrients in the oceans.

Climate↗
PubMed2006

Extreme events due to human-induced climate change.

A recent assessment by the intergovernmental panel on climate change concluded that the Earth's climate would be 2-6 degrees C warmer than in the pre-industrial era by the end of the twenty-first century, due to human-induced increases in greenhouse gases. In the absence of other changes, this would lead to the warmest period on Earth for at least the last 1000 years, and probably the last 100,000 years. The large-scale warming is expected to be accompanied by increased frequency and/or intensity of extreme events, such as heatwaves, heavy rainfall, storms and coastal flooding. There are also several possibilities that this large change could initiate nonlinear climate responses which lead to even more extreme and rapid (on the time-scale of decades) climate change, including the collapse of the ocean 'conveyor belt' circulation, the collapse of major ice sheets or the release of large amounts of methane in high latitudes leading to further global warming. Although these catastrophic events are much more speculative than the direct warming due to increased greenhouse gases, their potential impacts are great and therefore should be included in any risk assessment of the impacts of anthropogenic climate change.

Climate↗