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Updated projections of infertility in the United States: 1995-2025.

OBJECTIVE: To project the number of infertile women aged 15-44 every 5 years from 2000 to 2025. DESIGN: Data are used from Cycle 5 of the National Survey of Family Growth conducted by the National Center for Health Statistics. Population projections prepared by the U.S. Bureau of the Census are used as the base population for 2000-2025. Prospective demographic projections are used to estimate the number of infertile women. PARTICIPANTS: The National Survey of Family Growth (Cycle 5) interviewed 10,847 women aged 15-44 in 1995. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Number of infertile women. RESULT(S): The number of women experiencing infertility will range from 5.4-7.7 million in 2025, with the most likely number to be just under 6.5 million. CONCLUSION(S): This is a substantial revision (upward) in the number of infertile women, largely a result of the increase in the observed percentage of infertile women in 1995. This is the base population of concern to providers; of particular interest is the percentage of infertile women who seek medical treatment.

Adolescent↗

The development of sensory projection patterns in embryonic chick hind limb.

1. The distribution within individual dorsal root ganglia (d.r.g.s) of sensory neurones projecting to different targets in the embryonic chick hind limb was determined using the retrograde transport of horseradish peroxidase (HRP). The segmental pattern of sensory neurone projections was also defined, using retrograde and orthograde HRP labelling and electrophysiological techniques, from the onset of axonal outgrowth into the limb until after the period of sensory cell death. 2. At stage (St.) 29-30, shortly after initial axonal outgrowth into the limb, the large lateroventral neurones in the d.r.g.s projected both to skin and to muscle. At St. 36-37, after cell death in the d.r.g.s, cells from both the lateroventral and mediodorsal populations projected both to skin and to muscle. Thus these two cell populations do not correspond to cutaneous and proprioceptive afferents, respectively. 3. The cells projecting along individual cutaneous nerves or to individual muscles were always widely distributed throughout the ganglia. Thus, sensory neurones cannot be specified to project to particular peripheral targets as a result of their position in the d.r.g. Nevertheless, small clusters of cells were frequently found to project along the same peripheral nerve. 4. Since there is a correlation between position in the d.r.g. and time of origin, neurones projecting to each target have a wide range of birthdates, and, therefore, sensory neurones cannot be specified as a result of their birthdate. 5. At St. 36-38, after cell death, afferents to a given muscle or cutaneous nerve arise primarily from two or three adjacent segments out of the eight lumbosacral segments. For muscles these are the same segments that supply the motoneurones to that muscle. Each d.r.g. sends a characteristic proportion of axons down each of several peripheral nerves in a consistent and orderly pattern. 6. During initial outgrowth, the segmental projection pattern is similar to the pattern found in mature embryos. Thus, extensive projection 'errors' are not made and neither cell death nor retraction of axons is necessary for establishing the appropriate connectivity pattern. The majority of neurones do not send branches down more than one peripheral nerve. 7. Axons projecting to the same target are initially dispersed in the spinal nerves, and gradually segregate out in the plexus region, ultimately to form a separate nerve trunk. Axons projecting to different targets cross each other. Cutaneous and muscle nerves first form at the same stages. Therefore, the particular pathways axons take do not depend in any simple way on either axonal position in the plexus or time of arrival at the base of the limb. Simple timed outgrowth mechanisms and models in which axons maintain constant topographical relationships with each other therefore cannot generate the observed projection pattern. 8...

Animals↗

Population review. Structure and distribution of the population.

This article is the first in a series of articles reviewing the changing composition of the population of the United Kingdom. The series is a follow-up to the demographic reviews published in the mid-1970s and mid-1980s (see In Brief, page 2). This first article gives a summary view of the changes since the early Seventies in the structure and distribution of the UK population, and also takes account of population projections for future years. It begins by describing changes in the total population. The review then goes on to consider changes in sex ratios, age distribution, marital status, the regional distribution of the UK resident population, population density, ethnicity and household composition.

Adolescent↗

Projections of impaired fecundity among women in the United States: 1995 to 2020.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the number of women aged 15 to 44 years with impaired fecundity every 5 years from 1995 to 2020. DESIGN: Data are used from cycle IV of the National Survey of Family Growth conducted by the National Center for Health Statistics. Population projections prepared by the U.S. Census Bureau are used for the expected population base for 1995 to 2020. Prospective demographic projection analysis is used to estimate the number of women with impaired fecundity. PARTICIPANTS: The National Survey of Family Growth interviewed 8,450 women aged 15 to 44 years as of March 15, 1988. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Number of women with impaired fecundity. RESULTS: The number of women with impaired fecundity may drop from 5.1 million in 1995 to 4.7 million in 2015 and then rise to 4.8 to 5.9 million in 2020. CONCLUSION: The age structure of the population will cause the absolute number of women with impaired fecundity in the United States to increase slowly, if at all, over the next 25 years.

Adolescent↗

Topographic organization of serotonergic dorsal raphe neurons projecting to the superior colliculus in the Mongolian gerbil (Meriones unguiculatus).

Recent evidence suggests that the dorsal raphe nucleus (DRN) of the brainstem is a collection of neuronal clusters having different neurochemical characteristics and efferent projection patterns. To gain further insight into the neuroanatomic organization of the DRN, neuronal populations projecting to the superior colliculus (SC) were mapped in a highly visual rodent, the Mongolian gerbil (Meriones unguiculatus). Retrograde tracers Fluoro-Gold (FG) or cholera toxin subunit-B (CTB) were injected into the superficial layers of the SC, and serotonin (5-hydroxytryptamine, 5-HT) -positive cells were identified by using immunocytochemistry in the FG-injected animals. Based on its projections to the SC, the DRN was divided into five rostrocaudal levels. In the rostral and middle levels of the DRN, virtually all FG-filled cells occurred in the lateral DRN, and 36-55% of 5-HT-immunoreactive (5-HT-ir) cells were also double-labeled with FG. Caudally, FG-filled cells occurred in the lateral, ventromedial, and interfascicular DRN; and 44, 12, and 31% of 5-HT-ir cells, respectively, were also FG-filled. The dorsomedial DRN contained only a small proportion of FG-filled cells at its most caudal level and was completely devoid of FG-filled cells more rostrally. The CTB-injected animals showed a similar distribution of retrogradely labeled cells in the DRN. Topographically, the dorsal tegmental nucleus and the laterodorsal tegmental nucleus appeared to be closely associated with 5-HT-ir cells in the caudal DRN. These results suggest that the lateral DRN and the ventromedial/interfascicular DRN may be anatomically, morphologically, and neurochemically unique subdivisions of the gerbil DRN.

Animals↗

Sensitivity of the population growth rate to demographic variability within and between phases of the disturbance cycle.

For species in disturbance-prone ecosystems, vital rates (survival, growth and reproduction) often vary both between and within phases of the cycle of disturbance and recovery; some of this variation is imposed by the environment, but some may represent adaptation of the life history to disturbance. Anthropogenic changes may amplify or impede these patterns of variation, and may have positive or negative effects on population growth. Using stochastic population projection matrix models, we develop stochastic elasticities (proportional derivatives of the long-run population growth rate) to gauge the population effects of three types of change in demographic variability (changes in within- and between-disturbance-phase variability and phase-specific changes). Computing these elasticities for five species of disturbance-influenced perennial plants, we pinpoint demographic rates that may reveal adaptation to disturbance, and we demonstrate that species may differ in their responses to different types of changes in demographic variability driven by climate change.

Adaptation, Biological↗

[Calculating the intrinsic growth rate: comparison of definition and model].

It was shown that well known equation r = ln[N(t2)/N(t1)]/(t2 - t1) is the definition of the average value of intrinsic growth rate of population r within any given interval of time t2-t1 and changing arbitrarity its numbers N(t). The common opinion considering the equation as suitable only for exponentially growing population was found to be incorrect. The fundamentally different approach is based on the calculation of r within the framework of demographic model, realized as Euler - Lotka equation or population projection matrices. However this model requires simultaneous realization of several assumptions improbable for natural populations: exponential change in population size, stable age structure and maintaining constant age-dependent birth and death rates. The calculation of r by definition requires the data on the dynamics of population numbers, whereas calculation on the basis of the model requires the demographic tables of birth and death rate, but not the population numbers. With the example of American ginseng it was shown that evalution of r by definition and model approaches could produce opposite results.

Models, Theoretical↗

Somatotopic nucleocortical projections to the multiple somatosensory cerebellar maps.

The cerebellum is organized in a series of parasagittal compartments: in C1-C3 and C2 compartments Purkinje cells receive climbing fibre afferents from the rostral part of the accessory olives, and project their axon to the nucleus interpositus anterior and posterior, respectively. Within these compartments electrophysiological studies have shown that the cutaneous input carried by climbing fibre afferents is topographically organized so as to design a map of peripheral body districts. The body map is replicated over the anterior lobe-pars intermedia and the paramedian lobule, and anatomical studies have indicated that the replication is partly due to the axonal branching of olivocerebellar neurons. The aim of this study was to analyse the presence of a somatotopic organization and of a branching pattern in the nucleocortical projections, in relation to the replicated body maps within C1-C3 and C2 compartments. By using double retrograde neuronal tracing we explored, in the cat, the topographic distribution of single- and double-labelled cells in the interposed nuclear subdivisions, after tracer injections into forelimb or hindlimb regions of the anterior lobe-pars intermedia, paramedian lobule and hemisphere (medial crus II). Most of the nucleocortical neurons were found in ipsilateral nucleus interpositus posterior, with smaller numbers in the ipsilateral nucleus interpositus anterior. Nucleocortical neurons projecting to forelimb- or hindlimb-related areas are completely segregated, the forelimb neurons being located laterally and the hindlimb neurons medially in the nucleus interpositus posterior. Within their respective domains both the forelimb and hindlimb populations projecting to the anterior lobe-pars intermedia are partly segregated from those projecting to the paramedian lobule, in that the two populations are slightly shifted along the dorsoventral axis of the nucleus. Although mostly different, some of the cells are common to the two forelimb populations, since they send axonal branches to the homologous areas of the anterior lobe and paramedian lobule. Contralateral fastigial or interposed nucleocortical projections are restricted to the anterior lobe-pars intermedia, and their neurons of origin are different from those that project to the ipsilateral cerebellar cortex: i.e. they are not a bilateral, but a separate contralateral component.

Afferent Pathways↗

The relative impact and future burden of prostate cancer in the United States.

PURPOSE: In the last 2 decades there has been increasing awareness of and research on prostate cancer. We considered prostate cancer in the context of other major causes of morbidity and mortality. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results, and other government databases were used to 1) compare the incidence and mortality burden of prostate cancer with that of other cancers and major causes of death; 2) examine the changing trends in prostate cancer mortality using joinpoint analysis and 3) consider the future burden of prostate cancer in the United States due to aging. To project the future burden of prostate cancer year 2000 mortality rates were applied to age specific population projections from the United States Census Bureau. RESULTS: Prostate cancer continues to have the highest incidence rate and the second highest mortality rate of any cancer in American men and it ranks among the top 10 overall causes of death. The mortality rate of prostate cancer has been decreasing steadily at approximately 4% yearly since 1994, while the incidence rate has been increasing at slightly less than 2% yearly since 1995. CONCLUSIONS: The overall decrease in the mortality rate of prostate cancer since 1994 may be due to improvements in screening, diagnosis and treatments. Despite the decreasing mortality rate the aging of the American population and the exponential increase in prostate cancer incidence and mortality rates by age are important to consider when assessing the future morbidity and mortality burden of this disease and the appropriate allocation of health care resources.

Breast Neoplasms↗

Sense of coherence--stability over time and relation to health, disease, and psychosocial changes in a general population: a longitudinal study.

AIMS: To explore the stability of sense of coherence (SOC) over time in a normal population and to examine its relation to gender and psychosocial factors. METHODS: The Northern Sweden MONICA Project population surveys were performed in 1994 and 1999. A cohort of 1,254 subjects participating in both surveys answered questions about experiences of disease, perceived health, marital status, psychosocial factors, and Antonovsky's SOC scale with 13 items. RESULTS: The mean SOC score showed a decrease in the five-year follow-up and those with identified disease and the oldest age group (45-74 years) had the largest decrease of the SOC score. People with the lowest SOC scores in 1994 had the largest decrease during the period. Men and women shared a similar pattern regarding the decrease in SOC over time. The impact of individual social changes during the study period showed that both men and women who had experienced loss of perceived good health and high social support had the largest decrease. Furthermore, women seemed to be more affected by changes than men. CONCLUSIONS: We found that SOC was only stable for those with initially high levels of SOC. For other people, individual conditions and societal changes influenced their SOC. Further longitudinal studies in normal populations are needed to investigate the stability of SOC scores.

Adaptation, Psychological↗

More minority children and the need to stress dental care.

Dramatic changes in population projections through the middle of the next century indicate major increases in the size of the population, particularly for the various minority groups. For the most part, these are the populations which traditionally have had greater dental needs and reduced levels of services. The future of pediatric dentistry will required increased attention to these populations.

Adolescent↗

The laminar distribution of macaque tectobulbar and tectospinal neurons.

The superior colliculus exerts its most direct influence over orienting movements, and saccades in particular, via its descending projections to the brain stem and spinal cord. However, while there is detailed physiological data concerning the generation of saccade-related activity in the primate superior colliculus, there is relatively little data on the detailed connectivity of this structure in primates. Consequently, retrograde transport techniques were utilized to determine the locations of the cells of origin of these descending pathways in macaque monkeys. Tectal cells that projected to the ipsilateral pontine reticular formation were mainly found in the deep gray layer and occasionally in the intermediate gray layer. Tectal cells that projected to the contralateral pontine reticular formation were predominantly located in the intermediate gray layer. The contralaterally projecting population could be subdivided into two groups. The cells in upper sublamina of the intermediate gray layer project primarily to the saccade-related regions of the paramedian reticular formation. Cells in the lower sublamina project primarily to more lateral regions of the pontine reticular formation and to the spinal cord. We conclude that the primate colliculus is provided with at least three descending output channels, which are likely to differ in their connections and functions. Specifically, it seems likely that the lower portion of the intermediate gray layer may be specialized to subserve combined head and eye orienting movements, while the upper sublamina subserves saccades.

Animals↗

The posterior thalamic region and its cortical projection in New World and Old World monkeys.

The posterior nuclear complex of the thalamus in rhesus, pigtailed and squirrel monkeys consists of the combined suprageniculate-limitans nucleus and an ill defined region of heterogeneous cell types extending anteriorly from the dorsal lobe of the medial geniculate body towards the posterior pole of the ventral nuclear complex. This region is referred to as the posterior nucleus. It is directly continuous with the ventroposteroinferior nucleus. The cortical projections of each of these nuclei, together with those of the adjacent ventral, pulvinar and medial geniculate complexes, have been studied by means of the autoradiographic tracing technique. The suprageniculate-limitans nucleus, the main input to which is the superior colliculus, projects upon the granular insular area of the cortex. The medial portion of the posterior nucleus projects to the retroinsular field lying posterior to the second somatic sensory area. There is clinical and electrophysiological evidence to suggest that the retroinsular area may form part of a central pain pathway. The lateral portion of the posterior nucleus which is closely related to certain elements of the medial geniculate complex, projects to the postauditory cortical field. The ventroposterioinferior nucleus, which may be involved in vestibular function, projects to the dysgranular insular field. The principal medial geniculate nucleus can be subdivided into a ventral division that projects to field AI of the auditory cortex and a dorsal division that merges with the posterior nucleus; it is further subdivided into an anterodorsal component that projects to two fields on the superior temporal gyrus, together with a posterodorsal component in which separate cell populations project to areas lying anterior and medial to AI. The magnocellular medial geniculate nucleus, sometimes considered a part of the posterior complex, appears to project diffusely to layer I of all the auditory fields. The auditory fields are bounded on three sides by the projection field of the medial nucleus of the pulvinar which also extends into the upper end of the lateral sulcus to bound the fields receiving fibers from the posterior nucleus. The topography of the areas receiving fibers from the posterior, medial geniculate and pulvinar complexes, taken in conjunction with the rotation of the primate temporal lobe, permits all of these fields to be compared with similar, better known areas in the cat brain.

Animals↗

The global distribution and population at risk of malaria: past, present, and future.

The aim of this review was to use geographic information systems in combination with historical maps to quantify the anthropogenic impact on the distribution of malaria in the 20th century. The nature of the cartographic record enabled global and regional patterns in the spatial limits of malaria to be investigated at six intervals between 1900 and 2002. Contemporaneous population surfaces also allowed changes in the numbers of people living in areas of malaria risk to be quantified. These data showed that during the past century, despite human activities reducing by half the land area supporting malaria, demographic changes resulted in a 2 billion increase in the total population exposed to malaria risk. Furthermore, stratifying the present day malaria extent by endemicity class and examining regional differences highlighted that nearly 1 billion people are exposed to hypoendemic and mesoendemic malaria in southeast Asia. We further concluded that some distortion in estimates of the regional distribution of malaria burden could have resulted from different methods used to calculate burden in Africa. Crude estimates of the national prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum infection based on endemicity maps corroborate these assertions. Finally, population projections for 2010 were used to investigate the potential effect of future demographic changes. These indicated that although population growth will not substantially change the regional distribution of people at malaria risk, around 400 million births will occur within the boundary of current distribution of malaria by 2010: the date by which the Roll Back Malaria initiative is challenged to halve the world's malaria burden.

Endemic Diseases↗

Prevalence of spinal cord injury in Australia.

STUDY DESIGN: Cohort study, based on cases of spinal cord injury (SCI) that occurred between 1986 and 1997 (n=2959). OBJECTIVES: To estimate prevalence historically, currently and into the future. SETTING: Australia. METHODS: Prevalence was estimated on the basis of (1) historical data concerning survival and the relationship between the incidence of fatalities and SCI, (2) information on SCI incidence and survival 1986-1997, and (3) forecasts of incidence and population growth from 1997 to 2021 and consideration of survival. RESULTS: It was estimated that the prevalence of SCI in Australia was in the range 8096-9614 cases by 1985. By 1997, this had increased to nearly 10,000 and the prevalence rate was more than 681 per million of population. By 2021, this could increase to nearly 12,000 if age-specific SCI incidence rates continued at average values evident over the period 1986-1997 and national population projections applied. In addition, there would be more elderly SCI cases due to the ageing of the national population. The prevalent population could be reduced to less than 7000 if the incidence rate was reduced by -3% p.a. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of SCI in Australia has increased and it will continue to increase unless measures are taken to control incidence. The case mix will change due to the ageing of the population, and treatment services will need to be prepared for a larger and more elderly prevalent population. It was suggested that consideration should be given to a national health and welfare goal to reduce the SCI incidence rate by -3% p.a., focusing in particular on the prevention of transport crashes and falls.

Adolescent↗

Manual dexterity: how does the cerebral cortex contribute?

1. Manual dexterity, of great evolutionary significance to the primates, ranges in complexity from the precise opposition of finger and thumb to Brendal playing Mozart. All dexterity depends on a sustained and rapid transfer of sensorimotor information between the cerebral cortex and the cervical spinal cord. 2. Multiple separate corticospinal neuron populations originate from cortical areas four, the supplementary motor area, anterior cingulate, postarcuate, parietal and insular cortex. Each corticospinal neuron population projects in parallel to all spinal segments, and has a distinctive pattern of terminations. 3. Each corticospinal neuron population has a unique thalamic input which can relay particular sensorimotor information from the sense organs, cerebellum and basal ganglia. The overall structural framework of these sensorimotor pathways, with many parallel corticospinal channels, with interconnections in the cerebral cortex and spinal cord to enable crosstalk between the channels, is that needed for parallel distributed processing, which would enable the very rapid transfer of information between the cerebral cortex and spinal cord needed for any sophisticated use of the hand. 4. Hemisection of the cervical spinal cord in the macaque results in an immediate hemiplegia, with subsequent remarkable although incomplete recovery of hand and finger movements. The only direct corticospinal input to the hemicord caudal to the hemisection, even after 3 years, is the approximately 10% of fibres which cross the midline caudal to the lesion: the fibres 'spared' by the hemisection. A matching 'sparing' of somatosensory input from the paresed limb also occurs. No regeneration of the interrupted pathways has been visualized using modern tracer techniques. 5. Cervical hemisection permanently reduces the number of parallel channels which transmit information between cortex and spinal cord, but does not reduce their cortical origins nor the neuron populations targeted in the spinal cord. We infer that the content of the information that can be transmitted between the cortex and spinal cord is not greatly changed, but the rate of transmission of this information is sharply reduced, and is the 'bottleneck' that limits the complete recovery of dexterity following hemisection. The remarkable recovery that does occur presumably reflects more economic transmission of information by the few spared channels. We guess that this involves substantial synaptic reorganization not visualized by the procedures we have used.

Animals↗

Cancer projection by the turn of century-Indian science.

This is an attempt to understand the magnitude of cancer problem in India. The incidence data generated by the three population based cancer registries at Bangalore, Bombay and Madras and the population projections of country have been utilised for estimating the present and future load of new cancer cases. It is estimated that the total number of incident cases in males increased from 0.29 million to 0.43 million by the turn of the century as a result of change in size and composition of population and when adjusted for tobacco habits the estimates increased to 0.49 million. In females the incident cases of cancer for three registries increased from 0.32 to 0.42 million by 2001, with cancer of uterine cervix and breast being the major problems. The above results show an urgent need for strengthening and augmenting the existing diagnostic/treatment facilities which are vow fully inadequate to tackle even the present load.

Female↗

Robustness: predicting the effects of life history perturbations on stage-structured population dynamics.

Matrix-based models lie at the core of many applications across the physical, engineering and life sciences. In ecology, matrix models arise naturally via population projection matrices (PPM). The eigendata of PPMs provide detailed quantitative and qualitative information on the dynamic behaviour of model populations, especially their asymptotic rates of growth or decline. A fundamental task in modern ecology is to assess the effect that perturbations to life-cycle transition rates of individuals have on such eigendata. The prevailing assessment tools in ecological applications of PPMs are direct matrix simulations of eigendata and linearised extrapolations to the typically non-linear relationship between perturbation magnitude and the resulting matrix eigenvalues. In recent years, mathematical systems theory has developed an analytical framework, called 'Robustness Analysis and Robust Control', encompassing also algorithms and numerical tools. This framework provides a systematic and precise approach to studying perturbations and uncertainty in systems represented by matrices. Here we lay down the foundations and concepts for a 'robustness' inspired approach to predictive analyses in population ecology. We treat a number of application-specific perturbation problems and show how they can be formulated and analysed using these robustness methodologies.

Animals↗