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Life expectancy in an aboriginal Malaysian population.

A life table for an aboriginal Malaysian population, the Semelai, living in West Malaysia, was constructed using censuses from 1965, 1969, and 1974; and interview data from 1974. The life expectancy at birth for this population, 54.0 years, was compared to that of other Malaysian populations and selected Asian populations. This comparison indicated that the Semelai were at a disadvantage compared to the Malaysian populations, but in a favorable position when compared with the other Asian populations.

Actuarial Analysis↗

Projected life-expectancy gains with statin therapy for individuals with elevated C-reactive protein levels.

OBJECTIVES: We sought to estimate the potential gains in life expectancy achieved with statin therapy for individuals without overt hyperlipidemia but with elevated C-reactive protein (CRP) levels. BACKGROUND: Persons with low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol levels below current treatment guidelines and elevated CRP levels are at increased risk of cardiovascular disease and may benefit from statin therapy. METHODS: We constructed a decision-analytic model to estimate the gains in life expectancy with statin therapy for individuals without overt hyperlipidemia but with elevated CRP levels. The annual risks of myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke, as well as the efficacy of statin therapy, were based on evidence from randomized trials. Estimates of prognosis after MI or stroke were derived from population-based studies. RESULTS: We estimated that 58-year-old men and women with CRP levels >or=0.16 mg/dl but LDL cholesterol <149 mg/dl would gain 6.6 months and 6.4 months of life expectancy, respectively, with statin therapy. These gains were similar to those for patients with LDL cholesterol >or=149 mg/dl (6.7 months for men and 6.6 months for women). In sensitivity analyses, we identified the baseline risk of MI and the efficacy of statin therapy for preventing MI as the most important factors in determining the magnitude of benefit with statin therapy. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that individuals with elevated CRP levels, many of whom do not meet current National Cholesterol Education Program guidelines for drug treatment, may receive a substantial benefit from statin therapy. This analysis supports a crucial need for direct intervention trials aimed at subjects with elevated CRP levels.

C-Reactive Protein↗

Life expectancy in ancient and modern man.

The life expectancy of man has got an elongation from prehistoric times until today. A distinct increase, however, is seen first in the middle of the nineteenth century and is leading back to a change of the socio-economic influences at that time. The sex-specific difference of the mortality rate changes somewhat earlier. From the neolithics up to the Middle Ages, there had been a higher death rate of the females, especially in the second and third decennium, and can be explained as a consequence of maternities. Also the infant mortality has changed in the past hundred years. Because of a better medical care the death could be lowered.

Adolescent↗

Active life expectancy estimates for the U.S. elderly population: a multidimensional continuous-mixture model of functional change applied to completed cohorts, 1982-1996.

An increment-decrement stochastic-process life table model that continuously mixes measures of functional change is developed to represent age transitions among highly refined disability states interacting simultaneously with mortality. The model is applied to data from the National Long Term Care Surveys of elderly persons in the years 1982 to 1996 to produce active life expectancy estimates based on completed-cohort life tables. At ages 65 and 85, comparisons with extant period estimates for 1990 show that our active life expectancy estimates are larger for both males and females than are extant period estimates based on coarse disability states.

Activities of Daily Living↗

Life expectancy and infant mortality in Latin America.

Life expectancy and infant mortality in Latin America vary extremely on the national level as for example from 20 per thousand and less in Cuba and Chile up to 100 per thousand and more in Haiti and Bolivia. The range of these rates is even greater considering the regional level within the countries. Case studies from Costa Rica and Chile do not only show the contrast between rural and urban areas, but also give an example how regional differences can be diminished in the course of a rapid mortality decline. The development of primary and secondary health care, especially when applied to rural and marginal urban population turned out to be the most important factor for this reduction. In Costa Rica 75% of the decrease of infant mortality can be attributed to these measures. In addition to reforms in the public health system improvements of sanitary conditions have been proven to be very efficient in the fight against infant mortality in Chile. But the level of mortality remains relatively high in those countries where endogenous factors of mortality decline have not been added to the exogenous ones to a great extent. A close connection between social stratification and level of mortality is quite evident in Brazil, where difficult living conditions in rural areas as well as in a big part of the cities prevent a reduction of mortality rates.

Brazil↗

Estimating life expectancy and related probabilities in screen-detected breast cancer patients with restricted follow-up information.

Issues such as life expectancy after diagnosis, the number of life years gained by early diagnosis through screening, the probability of dying from breast cancer or of dying from other causes during the lead time period or thereafter can be derived from information on complete survival after diagnosis. A method is presented to estimate complete survival and relevant outcomes after diagnosis of screen-detected cancer when the follow-up period is substantially shorter than the maximum follow-up possible. Survival after diagnosis until death from breast cancer is modelled as the sum of the lead time (LT) and the post-lead time (PLT), where both time periods follow exponential distributions and are assumed to be independent. The survival period after diagnosis until death from causes other than breast cancer (X) is assumed to follow a Gompertz distribution. The survival period after diagnosis until death from any cause (Z) is modelled as the minimum of LT+PLT and X. Maximum likelihood methods were then used to estimate all parameters of Z. This procedure for obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of Z does not need the cause of death (breast cancer or other), which is an advantage over most other methods. Especially in older patients, it may be difficult or even impossible to ascertain the true cause of death. The model was applied to data from the long-term breast cancer screening programme in Nijmegen, the Netherlands. Complete survival was estimated on the basis of survival data on 528 screen-detected breast cancer patients, diagnosed in 1975-1997 and with a mean follow-up of 8.9 years. Estimated life expectancy ranged between 22.3 and 9.0 years for patients diagnosed at the age of 50 and 79 years, respectively, that is, 6.1 and 0.7 life years gained by screening. Through early diagnosis and treatment, screen-detected patients diagnosed at the age of 50 years may have reduced their lifetime risk of dying from breast cancer from 79 per cent to 56 per cent; at the age of 79 the reduction of risk is reduced from 23 per cent to 13 per cent.

Aged↗

Curative surgery for colorectal cancer: long-term results and life expectancy in the elderly.

PURPOSE: The long-term prognosis after curative surgery for colorectal cancer was evaluated in relation to age and life expectancy as a possible basis for assessing the risk to benefit ratios in the elderly. METHODS: Data relating to 1,256 patients operated on from 1976 to 1994 were stored in a computer database prospectively from 1987. Patients were subdivided into four age groups (A = <60 years; B = 60-69; C = 70-79; D = > or =80). Distribution of general contraindications to curative surgery was examined. In the 869 patients who underwent curative treatment (A = 206; B = 256; C = 289; D = 118), distribution of tumor stage and elective/emergency surgery and the operative mortality rate were evaluated. Crude and age-corrected survival curves were calculated in 794 patients. The median crude survival of each group was related by gender and tumor stage to demographic life expectancy, assuming as "relative median survival index" the ratio between the two values. RESULTS: General contraindications to curative surgery increased significantly with age. The operative mortality rate was higher in Group D than in Groups A, B, plus C over the total series (P < 0.001) and in both elective (P < 0.001) and emergency surgery (P < 0.05). Intergroup analysis of long-term survival rates showed significant differences between "crude" (P = 0.0057) but not age-corrected (P = 0.66) curves. The relative median survival index increased with age, up to approximately 1 in the local stages of Groups C and D. CONCLUSIONS: To evaluate long-term results, elderly patients should be compared with unaffected, same-age subjects. Because the risks may be very high, the surgical policy in the elderly should be carefully weighed and related to life expectancy and actual results.

Adult↗

Differentials in active life expectancy in the older population of the United States.

This study clarifies the process by which mortality and disability interact to determine differences in active life expectancy by age, sex, race, and education for the U.S. population 70 years of age and over. The analysis is performed using data from the Longitudinal Study of Aging and multistate life tables constructed using the results of hazard models. Women spend more years than men both active and inactive at every age; however, the proportion of life that is expected to be active is smaller for women. These differences are largely due to mortality differences favoring women. Persons with less than a high school education have shorter total and active life expectancies but similar expected lengths of inactive life compared to those with more than a high school education. There are no significant race differences in total life expectancy for race-education groups of the older population; but Blacks have lower expected active life than non-Blacks because of worse functioning.

Age Factors↗

Rest heart rate and life expectancy.

Among mammals, there is an inverse semilogarithmic relation between heart rate and life expectancy. The product of these variables, namely, the number of heart beats/lifetime, should provide a mathematical expression that defines for each species a predetermined number of heart beats in a lifetime. Plots of the calculated number of heart beats/lifetime among mammals against life expectancy and body weight (allometric scale of 0.5 x 10(6)) are, within an order of magnitude, remarkably constant and average 7.3 +/- 5.6 x 10(8) heart beats/lifetime. A study of universal biologic scaling and mortality suggests that the basal energy consumption/body atom per heart beat is the same in all animals (approximately 10(-8) O2 molecules/heart beat). These data yield a mean value of 10 x 10(8) heart beats/lifetime and suggest that life span is predetermined by basic energetics of living cells and that the apparent inverse relation between life span and heart rate reflects an epiphenomenon in which heart rate is a marker of metabolic rate. Thus, the question of whether human life can be extended by cardiac slowing remains moot and most likely will only be resolved by retrospective analyses of large populations, future animal studies and clinical trials using bradycardic therapy.

Animals↗

[Average life expectancy in Switzerland--historic and international background and thoughts on future development].

Age-specific mortality rates are a sensitive measure for the conditions of life in a population. Life tables--in Switzerland calculated approximately all ten years since 1876/80--indicate for any age and any observation period the mean life expectancy as well as the probabilities of death and survival, respectively. In the past centuries survival curves developed more and more a rectangular shape, but mortality rates didn't decrease uniformly in all age groups: until the first part of the twentieth century, increases in mean life expectancy were predominantly due to a rapid decline of infant and children's mortality; since the 1930s decreasing adults' mortality gained more importance, and not until the 1960s lower death rates in the population aged over 60 became a major component of prolonging the mean span of life. The nowadays favourable mortality situation of Switzerland within Europe started to emerge in the 1950s, predominantly due to declining mortality rates in the uppermost age groups. For the decades to come, experts predict a further substantial increase of mean life expectancy, in spite of actually rather unfavourable trends in the mortality rates of young adults. Consequently, the number of those aged over 65 and particularly those over 80 years will considerably increase till 2020, even if the scenarios of 1995 would prove to be too optimistic.

Adult↗

Early mortality surge in protein-deprived females causes reversal of sex differential of life expectancy in Mediterranean fruit flies.

Experiments based on over 400,000 medflies revealed that females maintained on a normal diet (sucrose plus protein) have a higher life expectancy than males maintained on a normal diet, with a difference of 1.30 +/- 0.27 days in favor of females. However, this sex differential reverses under protein deprivation, with a difference of 2.24 +/- 0.18 days in favor of males. The reversal of the male-female life expectancy differential is caused by a sustained surge in early female mortality under protein deprivation that is tied to egg-laying and physiological processes. In contrast, male mortality and life expectancy are only mildly affected by protein deprivation. The surge in early mortality for female medfly cohorts is an instance of a vulnerable period. These vulnerable periods are linked with patterns in hazard rates.

Aging↗

Health crisis in Russia. I. Recent trends in life expectancy and causes of death from 1970 to 1993.

The authors analyze trends in life expectancy and causes of death in Russia from 1970 to 1993, with a focus on reasons for the recent declines in life expectancy. "Before discussing the trends themselves, we shall...look at the possible distortions that changes in data quality may have produced. However, even if it has been exaggerated to some degree, nobody contests the reality of the Soviet health crisis, and we shall attempt to derive some explanation by analysing the age and cause-of-death structures of mortality in Russia."

Cause of Death↗

Formulation of goals for life expectancy at birth in Costa Rica (report of one experience).

Costa Rican authorities have finished a national adaptation of the goals of the Hemisphere's Ten-Year Health Plan for the Americas and have formulated a National Health Plan for 1974-1980. This work was coordinated by the Health Sector Planning Unit and was assisted by various multidisciplinary and multi-institutional working groups. The methodology set forth in this article was developed by a group responsible for formulating goals with regard to life expectancy--the last of five health-related subjects analyzed, and one regarded as dependent on the rest. In brief, this methodology was as follows: Birth rates, death rates, and life expectancy at birth in the other countries of the Region and in a developed country (Sweden) were compared with those prevailing now and in the past in Costa Rica. This served as a basis for projecting Costa Rica's future prospects if no changes were made, or if certain changes were made through implementation of new programs. This was followed by analysis of leading caused of death in the country--by age group and vulnerability of those dying, and by probably reductions in mortality that would result from achieving the goals established for other programs. On this basis, various alternative reductions in mortality for each age groups were considered. Using these alternative, abridged life tables were devised, and these in turn were used to draw up a table showing the life expectancy at birth that would result from realization of each alternative. This made it possible to derive life expectancy goals that were consistent with the goals for reducing mortality in each age group that were formulated during the sectoral planning process. It is hoped that this general procedure, illustrated here with data from the Costa Rican case, may prove useful to others engaged in health planning work.

Adolescent↗

Functional transitions and active life expectancy for older Japanese living in a community.

We examined functional transitions in both the activities of daily living (ADL), and instrumental activities of daily living (IADL), over a 1-year interval among older Japanese living in a community, then estimated their physically active life expectancy (PALE) and instrumentally active life expectancy (IALE). In 1992, all residents aged 65 or older who lived in Saku City, Nagano, Japan, were followed-up over the 1-year interval. A self-administrated questionnaire, which involved age, sex, five ADL items, and five IADL items, was used for each survey in both 1992 and 1993. Of the baseline cohort (n=10,098), we received 9533 analyzable questionnaires at the follow-up survey in 1993. During the follow-up, 92 and 87% of subjects who were initially independent in ADL and IADL remained independent, respectively. PALE for men and women were estimated to be 16.0 and 18.9 at 65 years of age, respectively. IALE for men and for women were estimated to be 12.8 and 14.6 at the age of 65, respectively. Proportions of the PALE to total life expectancy (TLE) at any age did not greatly differ between men and women; however, men had a slightly larger proportion of IALE to TLE at any given age than women.

Journal Article↗

Future life expectations and self-esteem of the adolescent survivor of childhood cancer.

The number of adolescent cancer survivors has increased dramatically over the past decade as the result of improved treatment and diagnostic techniques. This population brings with them unique characteristics and concerns. The present study consisted of interviews with 10 adolescent survivors of childhood cancer and their parents. It investigated the adolescent's present self-esteem, the future life expectations held by both the teenagers and parents, and the relationship between the variables. Results indicated that the adolescents felt moderately competent in their lives (measures of self-esteem) and the parents felt more certain than their children that the teenagers would accomplish the tasks deemed appropriate for entry into a healthy adulthood. Pearson correlations showed a strong relationship between parents' future life expectations and adolescents' self-esteem (r = .82; P = .002), but not between parents' and adolescents' future life expectations or between the adolescents' future life expectations and self-esteem. The results are significant in addressing the impact parents can have on their child's self-esteem.

Adolescent↗

Life expectancy and median survival time in the permanent vegetative state.

The authors studied life expectancy and risk factors for mortality of persons in the vegetative state (VS). The study participants were 1,021 California patients in the VS during 1981-1996. Because of the large sample size, the authors were able to use multivariate methods to assess the effect of several risk factors on mortality. The authors found a strong secular trend in infant mortality, with rates in the mid-1990s being only one third of those in the early 1980s (P < 0.01). A smaller secular trend was observed for children aged 2-10 years and none for older patients. The mortality risk for older patients fell by approximately 8% for each year since the onset of the VS. The need for gastrostomy feeding was associated with a substantially higher risk, especially for infants and older patients (P < 0.01). Ventilator dependence also appeared to be a risk factor. On the basis of recent mortality rates, life expectancy in the VS is frequently higher than has generally been thought. For example, it is 10.5 additional years (+/- 2 years) for a 15-year-old patient who has been in the VS for 1 year, and 12.2 years for a 15-year-old patient who has been in the VS for 4 years.

Adolescent↗

[[Recent life expectancy of Koreans in Japan, 1980 and 1985]].

Two abridged life tables for Koreans living in Japan for 1980 and 1985 are constructed using vital statistics and census data. Among the findings are that "the expectations of life at birth of Korean males in Japan are 68.4 in 1980 and 70.3 in 1985, whereas those values of Korean females in Japan are 78.3 in 1980 and 78.7 in 1985, respectively. Recent life expectancies of Koreans in Japan have come to resemble those of Japanese more than those of Koreans in Korea." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Asia↗